A stupidly long preview of the Horns

Quarterbacks
Following the departure of The Greatest College Quarterback Ever, to be replaced by a relatively unknown redshirt freshman named Colt McCoy, the 2006 Texas Longhorns were expected to be a team that ran the ball a lot and won low-scoring battles with a stout defense. A blowout of North Texas in the opener didn't really change expectations, and as the offense was held to a mere 7 points by Ohio State, the view of Texas as a team that would struggle to find an aerial attack solidified. And the numbers would remain modest up through the Red River Shootout, a game which indeed was won by defense (+5 turnovers) and the running game, with a few well-timed TD strikes when the offense was well-positioned. In the second half of the season, something clicked, and McCoy went on to lead a comeback drive against Nebraska, big totals against OK State, Baylor, and Texas Tech, and a comeback bowl victory against Iowa. En route he tied an NCAA freshman TD record (29), compiled a QB rating of 161.8, and actually averaged more passing yards per game than Heisman winner Troy Smith. The Longhorns were able to keep a variation of their option read offense, less option-heavy than with VY but with McCoy a surprisingly viable ground threat. In 2007, Colt McCoy is a top 20 college QB and could arguably be in the top 10.

What's concerning is depth. Two of Texas's three losses last season came in games where McCoy missed significant time, and while the K-State loss is certainly more a defensive collapse than the offense's fault, missing a key leader can affect the play of the entire team. Jevan Snead has transferred from the university, leaving unproven redshirt freshman Sherrod Harris and highly recruited true freshman John Chiles to battle for backup. Although talented players, neither is experienced and the Longhorns do not want to be facing the prospect of another injury to McCoy.

Running Backs
After 11 straight years of having a 1000+ yard rusher, no Texas back in 2006 topped the 900 mark. This is attributable to two factors: Selvin Young and Jamaal Charles splitting time at RB, and Vince Young's departure. Charles will be the primary RB in 2007, and he is faster and more agile than S. Young. Indeed, Charles is certainly a top 10 and perhaps top 5 college runningback. Bruiser-back Henry Melton has moved to defensive end, and while he may come in for short-yardage situations, the burden is squarely on Charles and McCoy.

The result will be a rushing style Texas fans haven't seen in a while. Charles does not have the power of Cedric Benson nor possibly Vince Young, but he has track speed and great moves. The emphasis on him will allow him to develop his game even more, but the lack of a back rotation could have an impact on his freshness throughout the game.

Wide Receivers
Quietly, Texas has had one of the better wide receiver corps in the nation for several years. Limas Sweed grew from Vince Young's third option into Colt McCoy's favorite, grabbing 46 passes for 801 yards and 12 TDs. Young's favorite wideout target, Billy Pittman, saw his yardage decrease significantly, but still hauled in 35 passes and 4 scores. Excitingly, Quan Cosby emerged as the #2 receiver in 2006 and highly touted Jordan Shipley finally had an injury-free season in which he contributed well as a #4 receiver. Any one of their top three WRs is a thread to gain 700-800 yards in a season, and two of them already have.

In 2007 that underrated skill will finally meet with experience as Limas Sweed and Billy Pittman enter their senior years, and Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley return as a juniors. Sweed is arguably a top 5 receiver in the NCAA, and Pittman a potential NFL draft pick. Indeed, the play of Pittman may determine the success of this group, as his yardage total from 2006 was about half that of 2005. This could be the best trio of receivers in the country.

Tight End
Vince Young loved his tight ends. David Thomas was the leading man for receptions and go-to guy for Texas in their national championship season. Bo Scaife contributed significantly in 2004, as Texas had two major receiving threats at TE that season, both of whom were eventual NFL draft picks. Last season, freshman Jermichael Finley beat out senior Neale Tweedie for the starting spot, on his way to an impressive 31 catches and 3 TDs.

Finley has great size at 6-5 236, great hands and strong athleticism. He showed flashes of being the next great Texas tight end, but as a freshman was not able to have the kind of great season that Thomas and Scaife provided recently. With a year now under his belt, and no longer sharing playing time, he is a strong bet to reel in 40 or 50 catches in 2007.

Depth is a concern here as the #2 TE, Peter Ullman, has caught just two passes in his two years at Texas! Freshmen are not expected to contribute significantly in 2007, meaning what we are likely to see here is a lot of sets featuring just one TE and three WR. This has become the staple formation for Texas over the past two seasons, so it is nothing new.

Offensive Line
Texas has grown accustomed to having one of the five best offensive lines in the nation for several years. In their national championship season, the Horns were the #3 rushing team in the nation and gave up just 14 sacks. Although the rushing yards decreased (more due to VY's departure), the sack total only rose to 19 and this is with a less ground-savvy QB.

However, Lyle Sendlein, Justin Blalock, and Kasey Studdard are all gone in 2007, and they were the unquestionable anchors of Texas's mammoth lines of 05 and 06. Cedric Dockery returning at RG is a plus, and the center is replaced by a senior, but LG and RT will both be manned by sophomores with about half a season's worth of experience.

Whatever flaws there are with the 2007 Texas offense, parts will be traceable to the offensive line. It will not be a horrible drop-off, but I also would not call this a top ten unit.

Offensive Outlook
In 2003-05, Texas finished no lower than 6th nationally in rushing ypg, averaging over 240 ypg every year. That number fell to 170 ypg and 30th overall in 2006. Passing improved dramatically between 2004 and 2005, then surprisingly stayed at that same level in 2006 at about 230 ypg.

Texas would prefer to be a balanced team, getting about half their yardage running the ball and racking up some big gains with their option plays and Charles' outside speed. No doubt the ground game will continue to be a major contributor to the Longhorns' success, its degree depending upon the skills and strengths of a somewhat new offensive line. But realistically, their offensive talent is stacked towards the air game, so you can expect Texas to throw the ball half the time or more as was their formula during the second half of the 2006 season.

The bottom line is that what was supposed to be a conservative, questionable offense in 2006 wound up being 5th in the nation in scoring, behind two WAC and two Big East schools. All of the skill players except for Selvin Young are back, and Colt McCoy is no longer a freshman. In 2007, Texas will be mentioned along with Louisville, LSU, Michigan, USC, and West Virginia as the best offenses in the nation.

Defensive Line
Texas is accustomed to dominating this side of the trenches as well. In 2005, Texas arguably had the best offensive and best defensive lines in the country, the latter of which was sometimes overshadowed by an offense racking up 50+ ppg. Between 2003 and 2005 the Horns gave up between 3.1 and 3.6 ypc over each season, with total rushing ypg depending on how much defenses wanted to test the Longhorn secondary; in 2005, the defensive backfield featured 5 future NFL draft picks, 2 future Thorpe winners, and teams opted to run again and again rather than facing those defensive backs. The secondary struggled in 2006, but the defensive line was stellar giving up a measly 2.3 ypc and becoming the #2 rushing defense in the country.

Big name departures include Tim Crowder and Brian Robison, known for his kick blocks and turnover recoveries as well as outstanding speed. However Texas recruits very well at this position, and both men stepping up are juniors with signficant playing experience.

The defensive ends do seem undersized at 248 and 260 lbs apiece, but the middle will be next to immovable with Okam and Miller. Orkapo and Lewis both do have significant game experience over the past two seasons. Because of his size, Henry Melton (6-3, 268) may eventually compete for a starting spot after having switched over from HB, and Thomas Marshall (6-6 290) has both size and experience at DE should teams try to exploit size in the power running game. The two-deep is made up of three seniors, three juniors, and two sophomores. Overall, the unit will remain in the top five nationally.

Linebackers
Texas has produced a lot of great linebackers lately, big names being Derrick Johnson and Aaron Harris. Chizik shifted the Longhorn linebackers' focus from size and run stopping to speed and shutting down the outside. With a dominant defensive line this has come with little reprocussions in the running game, save for LenDale White's performance in the 06 Rose Bowl.

Everybody returns from last season, and everyone in the two deep is a legitimate starter. Their speed has been shown off the last two seasons, but these guys have also beefed up as only one player on the two-deep is shorter than 6-2 or less than 230. Projected starters Bobino and Derry each had 70+ tackles last season, and were the leading tacklers outside of the oft-tested secondary. Sophomore backups Kindle and Muckelroy have significant playing experience, and the starters are all jrs and srs. I believe this will wind up being another top five group nationally, although their rankings place them in the bottom half of the top ten.

Defensive Backs
The 2005 Texas Longhorn secondary has so far had two Thorpe winners (Huff, Ross) and five players drafted into the NFL. That season they shut down Ohio State and Texas Tech's passing games, forced Matt Leinart into a 1:1 TD-Int game, and wound up being one of the leading teams in terms of opponents' QB rating.

Last season, Cedric Griffin and Michael Huff were gone, but the Horns had three starters with significant (if not starting) experience and a fourth Marcus Griffin who was expected to fill in well. But something went wrong. When Tarrell Brown was suspended from the Ohio State game, no backup cornerback was able to cover the Buckeyes' #2 receiver. Iowa State managed 300 passing yards, then Baylor and Nebraska consecutively, before Texas Tech scorched the secondary for 519. The deep ball was a nightmare in Texas's upset loss to Kansas State, and numerous secondary mix-ups nearly cost them the Alamo Bowl. In the end, the unit ranked 97th in passing ypg allowed, giving up 236 ypg which is the most in school history. Their efficiency ratings place them more in the middle of the pack, as some of that yardage was a result of the defensive line shutting down any semblance of a running game by the opposition. But it cannot be denied that this unit was a disaster, save for brilliant play aginst Oklahoma.

This season the safeties are great. Marcus Griffin returns for his senior year and Drew Kelson transfers back from linebacker which will make this unit fearsome in run support. Speed a concern? Kelson's most famous highlight is covering Reggie Bush one-on-one on a fly route, keeping in stride and nearly picking off the pass. Both the deep pass and run support provided by these safeties will be excellent.

There is also a position called cornerback. Last season, Texas's corners went no deeper than Aaron Harris and Tarrell Brown, both of whom were drafted into the NFL this April. Ryan Palmer and Brandon Foster are a jr and a sr, but poor performances in 2006 have lead Texas to tentatively have Chykie Brown (rFr) and Deaon Beasley (So) as starters. To the credit of Texas's likely starters, both were very highly recruited players out of high school (top 20 and top 10), which Palmer and Foster were both not, so as they gain experience that will allow their higher skill/potential to blossom. In any case, this is Texas' greatest concern. Moving into the top 25 in terms of passing ypg would be a nice goal, top 50 would be a mild success.

Defensive Outlook
The question aside from "How well will Teas' secondary hold up?" is "How well will the Longhorn defense perform without DC Gene Chizik?" Chizik, defensive coordinator of the AUburn Tigers during their unbeaten season before transferring to Texas to DC their national championship season, took a transfer to head coach at Iowa State. His record the past three seasons is impressive - a combined record of 36-3, an SEC Championship, a Big XII championship, three bowl victories, and of course a national championship. Statistically, the 04 Auburn defense was #1 in the country in scoring, 05 Texas finished #8 but was #4 going into their showndown with USC, and overall the three teams have given up an average of 15.3 ppg. Each of those years his defense has produced the Thorpe winner.

However, some Longhorns fans questioned his conservative schemes and playcalling as being an issue in 2006. Replacement Duane Akina has spend seven years with the team and is known for a more aggressive style. That aggressive style will be a double-edged sword, not forcing the secondary to stay in coverage as long per play, but at the risk of leaving inexperienced corners on an island.

In any case, I expect improvements in the linebackers (who were already good) and the secondary (which needed it), and probably about a standstill at defensive line. The Texas defense should be better than it was in 2006, but could still be vulnerable against passing attacks like Nebraska and Texas Tech, as well as Nebraska/Missouri in a potential conference championship.

Special Teams
With the exception of the 2004 squad which had major coverage unit problems, Texas' special teams groups typically flirt with top 10 to top 15 ratings. Over the past six seasons Texas has averaged four kick blocks per season, which means that the block units alone are providing a potentially game-changing play about once every three games. However, the most active blocker, Brian Robison, has graduated.

Last season Texas found a reliable kicker in the Nebraska game, Ryan Bailey. This came as a great relief as Greg Johnson had struggled on FGs. However, Johnson was a strong punter, and Trever Gerland will need to add about 2 yards to his average to provide the same level of punting. Quan Cobsy was the leading KR man, and he will likely step in to replace Aaron Harris at PR as well.

Provided Gerland is a solid punter, Texas's special teams will be strong but not spectacular; another finish in the 10-15 range.

Final Verdict
The final step from pretender to contender involved a) Vince Young's maturity as a passer and his eventual decision to make every play a broken play and b) Gene Chizik's conversion of the defense from Big XII-style power to SEC-style speed. Obviously both Young and Chizik are gone, but Texas's success will be based on similar things this year. Colt McCoy needs only slight improvements in his passing production to make this the nation's top offense, which may come from experience alone. Defensively, better raw talent coupled with a more aggressive scheme will need to be a winning formula in order for Texas to have 0 or 1 losses rather than 2 or 3.

Of Mack Brown's 22 losses in 9 seasons, 11 have come to top 10 opponents and five against Oklahoma specifically. They are 9-13 against opponents with 10+ victories, which isn't really bad (winning 10+ games tends to mean 2 or fewer losses, so it's a slanted sample) but not great either. Of those 22 losses though, only one has been against a team that wasn't bowl-eligible, and 4 total against teams with fewer than 8 victories, so they're not likely to fall to the completely random upset.

Sleeper Game: 9/8 vs TCU
In TCU's 22-3 run over the past two seasons, they are 4-0 against the Big XII with wins over Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Nonetheless, Texas will be expected to win this game and to win it comfortably. TCU feels like they have something to prove as, despite those wins and a 2-0 bowl record, they are still not a highly-regarded team. While Texas easily surpasses TCU in terms of talent, it will be difficult for them to match the Frogs in terms of motivation for this game.

Revenge Game: 9/29 at Kansas State
Last season, K-State embarassed Texas's defense in a 45-43 upset. Expect this loss to be on Texas' minds, as their near-loss to Kansas in 2004 was leading up to a 66-14 blowout in 2005. This game also has minor statement potential as it is the weekend before the Red River Shootout. This one could be ugly.

Statement Game: 10/6 vs Oklahoma (in Dallas)
Despite improvements by Nebraska and Missouri, the Big XII remains a two team conference in terms of the battle for top dog. Since 1999, either Texas or OU has represented the Big XII South in all 8 conference championship games, and 6 of those 8 times it has been the winner of this game that has gone on to play in the conference championship.

October and November:
It's true that most of Texas's season will be defined from opening kickoff through the OU game, and then in a possible conference championship and whatever bowl game they play in. But the forgotten part of the season has three potential roadblocks. Nebraska and Texas Tech should have excellent passing games, which plays at Texas's likely defensive weakness. However, these teams also managed a combined 25 yards rushing against Texas last season. Texas A&M won probably more due to McCoy's injury than anything else, but in a rivalry game anything can happen, and nothing gets Aggies fired up like playing against Texas.

If Texas loses to OU, Nebraska on 10/27 could be considered a barometer game.

Jury Says:
On paper, Texas either wins all of their regular season games or loses just to OU.

Practically speaking, with a freshman QB OU is in a poor position to exploit Texas's major weakness, and Texas plays two teams who may be inferior talent-wise but love to pass all day. Bump that up to three if Texas plays in the conference championship in a rematch against Nebraska or against Missouri. Fortunately these games are deep enough into the season to allow the secondary to gel.

Bottom line is, despite their level of talent, it's tough to see Texas going unbeaten. Barely more than one BCS conference team does it each season, and there's four or five teams that are more likely candidates. But anything more than two losses would probably require extraordinary circumstances, like another injury to McCoy. Likely outcomes are 10-12 wins and 1 or 2 losses.

Title Aspirations?
With Texas's weak schedule and low (for potential NC contention) starting ranking, the Horns would need to go unbeaten to get into the BCS championship. The Horns should be slight favorites against OU and will have 2 months to get their secondary in shape before facing a major passing threat. I would actually give the Horns about a 25% chance of running the table during the regular season - due to extreme offensive firepower, excellent front seven and solid safeties, and a favorable schedule. Not likely but certainly not shocking if it does happen.

Now if you are going to lose your conference and still play in the BCS championship, the Big XII is the place to do it (Nebraska 01, Oklahoma 03) -- nevermind what happened to both of those teams. But again realistically, Texas needs to finish 13-0 to land a spot in that game - they do not have a great preseason ranking nor a particularly strong schedule. Missouri and Nebraska should contend for the Big XII North title, and as a Texas fan, Missouri is much more threatening. They return 9 starters on offense to Nebraska's 6 (both return 5 on defense). Missouri's offense features a dual threat jr QB, a fast sr RB, and jr's and sr's across the board with the exception of one lone soph on the o-line. Their top five rushers and top three receivers, along with nine of their top ten receivers, are all returning. This is a very explosive and very balanced group, much like Texas. They have the advantage of not facing Texas during the regular season and having Nebraska at home. If I am a Texas fan - which I am - I'm rooting hard for Nebraska and Oklahoma to both defeat Missouri back-to-back... and perhaps for Texas Tech to finish their division championship hopes the following week. Fortunately, Nebraska does not face Oklahoma.

In all, I would give Texas about a 40% chance of winning the Big XII -- 55% odds they beat OU, and if they are in the conference championship about 80% odds of winning it. The missing 4% is of course the odds of two conference upsets... completely intentional math discrepancy, of course ;-)

So let's be optimists here and assume that Texas goes 13-0, crushing Oklahoma and Nebraska like red-jerseyed stepchildren. What are their odds of actually winning the title?

The answer, of course, is that it depends on who they are playing. Texas is not the best team in the nation, but they are a top ten team who could improve to be a top five team. Sometimes the best team doesn't win. Of the teams that are probably better than Texas, LSU has a killer schedule... you can say the same thing of anyone else in the SEC who might be better than Texas; indeed, only LSU has a realistic hope of emerging from that conference unbeaten.

Louisville and WVA play against each other, and with their defenses their winner could lose another game to random upset. Michigan faces Oregon in September (ie, when they're good), Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. USC has road games at Nebraska, at Oregon, and at Cal in addition to a rivalry game with an experienced UCLA. Notre Dame could even be a sleeper game for USC, just because a) it's in South Bend and b) Notre Dame hasn't beaten USC since 2001, so they might be due to win another before the decade's over. Between the three of these teams (counting "Louisville-WVA winner" as one team), I don't think that more than one will go unbeaten. So Texas being in the title game depend on a) the Horns going unbeaten and b) somebody knocking off LSU. Although if Michigan and USC both lost, Texas could wind up ahead of an unbeaten Big East team due to SOS.

In my opinion, Texas would actually like to face West Virginia in the BCS championship. (well, they'd like to face Temple, but of the likely contenders WVA) WVA is not a thread to exploit their secondary, and they do not really have a power running game. Their offense plays into Texas's defensive strengths. Their own defense has been questionable across the board.

Next would be Louisville. Despite a great passing game, the Cardinals' own secondary is very suspect, having two converted WRs playing the safety spots and not a lot of size up front. Rutgers and Wake Forest also showed that at least part of Louisville's big offensive numbers are due to the team they typically play. Texas would be favored in either matchup, but not by a wide margin.

Michigan and USC would be interesting matchups, for different reasons. Michigan and Texas are very similar, with incredible offensive talent but questions of defense - specifically, questions in the secondary. This would be a very close matchup. It could likely come down to a contest between Colt McCoy and Chad Henne. Luckily, Henne is 0-53 in big games.

USC would be interesting because it could feature the nation's top-ranked offense and top-ranked defense, and it could come down to how Texas's inexperienced secondary fares against USC's inexperienced receivers. In reality, though, I can't imagine USC not having a good receiving corps by midseason. And defense gets the edge in this game.

LSU would not be an interesting matchup. LSU would simply destroy Texas with all of their WR speed and probably the nation's best defense.

So if Texas wants to win the national title, they need to a) go unbeaten, b) hope LSU loses, and c) probably hope USC loses. I'd say that's only slightly better odds than a transport winning a defensive battle against a fighter, which Chris can tell you is unlikely but definitely possible.

A stupidly long preview of the Vols

Get a snack. Heck, go make dinner. This is gonna be long.

Quarterbacks
Erik Ainge returns as the primary QB for the 2007 season. It's tough to overstate his improvement between 2005 and 2006; there's a few reasons for that improvement (not being on the Clausen / Ainge QB carousel, Cutcliffe's tutelage), but there's no reason to think his performance will regress. He showed plenty of resiliency and an incredibly accurate arm (67.0%). Jonathan Crompton will serve as the primary backup. Crompton offers more speed at the cost of a great decrease in accuracy. He'll be the rough equivalent of Brent Schaeffer - and considering he basically played himself out of the starting QB spot at Ole Miss, that's not necessarily a good thing.

Cutcliffe's 2006 system relied on the gamebreaking abilities of Robert Meachem, Jayson Swain, and Bret Smith - make short passes and let them take over with plenty of YAC. This year's talent will be well-suited to that system, but there aren't as many potential gamebreakers. I wouldn't expect Ainge to approach his nearly 3,000 yards passing (2,989, to be precise), but I do expect his accuracy to stay about the same. He may not throw for as many TDs (19 last year), but that will be because of an improved running game.

Running Backs
LaMarcus Coker enters the season as the primary starter in the deepest RB corps the Vols have seen in the past few years - probably since the Gerald Riggs / Cedric Houston 2004 season. However, this season will be a three-headed monster. Coker is the best pure runner and can quickly obtain separation; last year he averaged nearly 6.5 ypc.

Montario Hardesty is the strongest runner on the team - when he wants to be. Part of the reason he only averaged 3.6 ypc last year is due to his desire to cut back about 4 or 5 times behind his offensive line. If the coaching staff (read: Trooper Taylor) can get Hardesty to make a single cut and then hit the hole, look for a massive improvement in his numbers. He has the brute force to carry guys for 15-20 yards a pop; he's done it before. The talent is there, if he can harness it.

Arian Foster is actually the biggest RB in the three-deep (6'1", 225). However, while he definitely possesses talent at an equal level with the other two guys, he has to prove he can stay healthy. Last year he was derailed by an ankle injury in the 2nd game of the season (against Air Force), which then set him back for the next three weeks. He never got on track; if he can get on a roll, there won't be many teams that have a better three-deep than the Vols will haev.

Wide Receivers
Want a potential problem area on offense? Don't look further than this group. It's not that they're bad, necessarily. It's just that they're unproven. The team lost its top three WRs after the season (Meachem left for the draft, Swain and Bret Smith graduated), leaving Lucas Taylor as the primary returning WR. He's served as a KR the last two years, so at least he has experience playing; however, his average of 1 reception per game has to improve. It's a safe bet that it will, provided he stays healthy.

However, that's not to say there's not talent here. Quinton Hancock played fantastically in August of last year but was lost for the season in the Memphis game. Gerald Jones is the best pure incoming talent, but he was recruited as a DB. Ahmad Paige and Kenny O'Neal were at least WRs, and they're both talented in their own right, but like Jones, they have to learn the system. Austin Rogers has some starting experience.

One of those guys will have to emerge as a credible #1 threat. Taylor will probably set up as the deep threat on the team, but for this season it's looking a lot like the Vols will have a plethora of #2 / #3 type receivers. Again, it's not a bad thing that it's the case, but it presents some difficulties for the offense unless the Vols are consistently putting 4 WRs out there and forcing a mismatch. If a #1 doesn't emerge, then expect Cutcliffe to deploy a ball-control offense. Think a more effective version of 2002's passing offense.

Tight Ends
Here's some food for thought: both of the Vols' primary returning passcatchers are their TEs. Chris Brown and Brad Cottam are both very talented - Brown moreso than Cottam - and they'll likely have a big role in the offense this season. There's no reason for them not to be; they're both seniors, and they're both good enough to start.

Even with that, don't think that the TE rotation is top-heavy; Brad's younger brother Jeff is a solid talent in his own right. 4th-string TE Jeff Stocker is a redshirt freshman and probably still a year away at this point.

Heck, the team even has a couple of transfers that'll help next year in Brandon Warren (from FSU) and Brett Thomason (from Georgia). There's not a lot to worry about from this position, which is good - even moreso when you factor in the inexperience at WR.

Offensive Line
All-SEC LT Aaron Sears is gone. So is LG David Ligon. Still, that's about the only bad news on the front lines - everyone else from the 2-deep is back. Josh McNeil (C) and Eric Young (RT) anchor the line. The new starters are both on the left side; Jacques McClendon at LG and Chris Scott at LT. It'll be interesting to see how the line play unfolds; the experience is on the right side of the line (RG Anthony Parker started 12 games there last year), but McClendon and Scott are both incredibly talented.

There may be some reshuffling of the line (basically changing Young and Scott's starting spots), but it's a tested line. Their challenge will be simple: open up enough running lanes to support the ground game (and open up avenues for Hardesty if he's still juking 12 times behind the line) and protect Ainge long enough to get the quick-pass offense off the ground.

Offensive Outlook
Last year the team relied on the gamebreaking abilities of its WRs. This year, it's back to "normal" with the RBs expected to share an equal load. Until one (or two!) of the WRs show consistent ability to create separation after the catch, I expect the offense to be primarily ball-control. By this, I don't mean the run-run-screen-punt offense that Randy Sanders made famous until he resigned, but I do mean an offense set up around three feature backs and prominently involved TEs. Think a hybrid West Coast-style offense with the TEs functioning as heavy-duty pass catchers across the middle. Look for most of the runs to be to the right early in the season as well (again, the experience is there).

I do expect the Vols to deploy a fair amount of 4 WR sets to take advantage of their depth of talent at that position. As I've said, there's enough talent there to be able to create mismatches - provided that most of the guys shake out. The team does need one of the guys to emerge as a deep threat, though; otherwise there won't be any reason for teams not to put 8 in the box at all times and force the WRs to make plays.

Defensive Line
Last year the D-line was plagued with two problems: 1) inexperience and 2) a relative inability to stop the run. Once Justin Harrell was lost for the year, the only returning starter was J.T. Mapu - and I'm using the loose sense of the word "returning" here; Mapu last started in '03. Still, the loss that hurts going into this year was DT Turk McBride. He'll be replaced by Demonte Bolden. The good news is that both of the DEs return; Xavier Mitchell and Antonio Reynolds aren't the best guys out there, but thye're not bad. Mitchell's the better talent of the two (45 tackles, 4 sacks last year).

This unit should be better than they were last year; there's enough experience and the Vols will normally field a good rush D. I wouldn't expect this unit to have 3 games with over 200 yards rushing allowed like what happened last year (Air Force, LSU, Arkansas). However, I do expect their problem areas last year to continue. Mobile QBs and multiple backfield threats caused the line all sorts of trouble, and until I see the line consistently apply pressure against the run, I won't say they'll be able to stop that type of running game. The good news: simple feature-back sets should be eaten alive, even if the back is talented (see California and Alabama last year).

Linebackers
The Vols lose leading tackler Marvin Mitchell from the unit; however, that's their only loss in the two-deep. The returning players are all solid; Jerod Mayo was the team's leading sack artist (5 sacks). Mayo takes Mitchell's old spot in the middle and should only up his tackle total from there. Ryan Karl returns on the strong side (66 tackles, 8 tackles for loss), and Rico McCoy steps in as the weakside LB. He recorded 38 tackles last year as a backup.

The LBs will be the strength of the Vols' front 7, and it's not really even in question. Mayo has a shot at being the best LB in the SEC, and Karl was a plus performer last year - even though he had the least amount of tackles among LBs, he was still 5th on the team. The last few years the Vols have relied on the LB corps to keep things under control in the front, and this year looks to be much the same.

Defensive Backs
As good as the LB corps will be for the Vols, this group could be way more fun to watch. Jonathan Hefney returns at FS, and all he did last year was finish 2nd on the team in tackles (96, 3 for loss) and lead the team in INTs (5). In addition, Eric Berry will probably open his college career at CB. He was ranked anywhere from 1st to 6th as an incoming freshman, depending on which prep ranking you were using. The other two spots are unsettled as of yet; it could be Antonio Gaines, Marsalous Johnson, or JUCO DeAngelo Willingham at the other CB spot and Jarod Parrish, Nevin McKenzie, or Sinclair Cannon at SS. My votes are for Johnson at CB (most improved player on D in spring practices) and Cannon at SS (best name).

This unit will probably struggle a bit early; there's only one definite returning starter in Hefney, and while Johnson is a sophomore and has experience in DC John Chavis' system, he doesn't have any starting experience. It's going to depend on what the team wants out of that CB spot. If they want starting experience, it's Willingham; if they want system experience, it's Johnson. Either way, it could make for an interesting first few weeks. Expect the loser of that battle (or even Berry) to slot in as the nickel CB, and the unit will improve by the second half of the season. Jarod Parrish is the only SS with starting experience in the system; by comparison, McKenzie is the transfer. Expect that position to break down almost like the CB battle.

Again, I don't expect much out of these guys (save Hefney) for the first few weeks. Berry should make a few outstanding plays, but I don't expect the secondary to really gel until somewhere around the Mississippi St. game (Oct. 13, halfway through the season). The good news is that they'll probably be successful against the Alabama, South Carolina, and Kentucky pass games; the bad news is that they face what's probably their two best opponents' passing offenses in Cal and Florida in the first three weeks of the season. Uh-oh.

Defensive Outlook
Separately, two of the three units should be better than they were last year; both the DTs and the LBs will be at worst on par with their '06 performance. The secondary, as stated, will be interesting. Either they'll be shutdown by the end of the season or a disaster on par with '04, and there's not much in-between. If it's the latter, expect the youngsters to get plenty of PT in hopes of coming back strong for next year after they lose most of the front 7 to graduation.

I've learned over the years not to count out a John Chavis-coached D. He'll get the most out of them, and the D has a habit of stepping up when the offense is in trouble (their best numbers over the past 5 years have been in '02 when UT was playing without a quarterback, basically, and '05, when Randy Sanders' run-run-screen-punt offense was in full swing)), and as documented, that could be the case this year. The key components are in place: good DEs, a solid LB with a proven playmaker, and a plus secondary guy.

Like last year, expect the LBs to make the majority of the sacks / exciting plays. The tackles do need to show more speed, otherwise interior speed will be dangerous (read: Florida and Arkansas will eat them alive). Historically, the defense has been a little better than the sum of its parts and very smart to boot. That I don't see changing this year.

Special Teams
The K/P this year is ...well, the same guy. Not only that, he's the last of the Colquitt family to make his way through Neyland Stadium. Last year, Colquitt only averaged 44.9 yards per kick with 18 punts inside the 20 (out of 46 - 39%) and another 8 fair catches. Those numbers are clearly inferior; I expect him to be over 50 yards per kick with no touchbacks and no returns. In all seriousness, he'll be the best P in the SEC this year and may compete for the Ray Guy award as a juinor. He'll also be doing the placekicking; he has a ways to go to match the accuracy of departed K James Wilhoit (18-22 last year), but he should have comparible leg (51 yards was Wilhoit's long). He'll also be handling kickoffs, which will probably end up working in UT's favor with the tee moving back to the 30. Bottom line: the more Colquitt on the field, the better. Unless he's punting 120 times over the course of the season.

Oddly enough, the return games have been lackluster the last two years. LaMarcus Coker and Lucas Taylor will be the kickoff return men, but neither has been impressive; Coker "led" with 20.0 yards per return last year. He has the speed to be successful - as does Taylor. Jonathan Hefney isn't a bad punt returner at 12.1 yards per return last year.

I do expect the Vols to win the hidden yardage game most weeks, but that's primarily due to Colquitt's leg. With the return game continually underperforming, I'm left to wonder if it's either a problem with the talent or with the coverage teams / schemes. This isn't my specialty, honestly; I'm going to speculate more of the latter than the former. Taylor hasn't been too impressive either year he's been a return man, but I honestly don't see the average kickoff return topping 25 yards this season, either. Until there's a definite sign of improvement with the coverage and return games, I'm not signing on to people saying the unit's better.

Final Verdict
The return of David Cutcliffe to Rocky Top rejuvenated both the team and the fan base (which had been calling for Sanders' departure for the last few years - it got to the point where EVERYONE could predict the "run up the middle on 3rd and 8", which isn't a good sign), and Ainge's vast improvement from 2005 to 2006 can probably be mostly laid at Cutcliffe's feet. I only say mostly because of the move of Trooper Taylor from RB coach to WR coach last year - he's another underrated guy who has the tendency to get the most out of his players. Gerald Riggs finally turning it around in '04? Blame Taylor.

Still, this may be an even bigger challenge; the team's WR playmakers are gone, they lost their best CB in Jonathan Wade (13(!) pass breakups last year), their best lineman is gone, and their leading tackler left. Now they'll be breaking in a new WR corps and a likely true freshman CB at two nasty places to play in the first three weeks - @ Cal and @ Florida. Most of their big games are on the road this year; only Georgia, Arkansas, and South Carolina come to Rocky Top. (They also travel to a possibly rejuvenated Alabama.) The good news is the team avoids Auburn and LSU this year.

Last year the Vols went 2-3 in their games against ranked teams. They may potentially play 6 ranked teams this year, and they'll need to go at least 3-3 to keep the wolves at bay and maintain respectability. If the games were backloaded, that wouldn't be a problem - but Cal and Florida are in the first two games, which means the Vols could be staring at 2-2 going into the bye week before Georgia and dealing with a restless fan base to boot. If the Vols are 4-2 entering the game with Bama on the 20th, then they can probably challenge for 3rd (at worst) in the SEC East; if they're 5-1, they can go for the title. If they're 6-0, they're in the national title hunt. Realistically, I see 4-2 with losses to Cal and Florida and a 9-3 finish to the regular season.

Barometer Game: @ Florida, 9/15. Tebow gave the Vols fits last year; if a young D can shut down the Gators in the Swamp, then you may want to put this team on your BCS radar. If they can't, then it may be another 9-4 / 10-3 season, which isn't bad - unless you're in Knoxville.

Statement Game: @ Alabama, 10/20. Part of the reason Nick Saban was hired was because the Tide had gone 2-10 against the Vols over their last 12 games. This won't be an easy game; Alabama's D (and Simeon Castille) gave the Vols fits last year at Neyland Stadium, and now they get to go on the road to face a team that gets its best WR back (Tyrone Prothro) as well as basically its entire offense, a rejuvenated fan base, and a coach looking to make a statement that his program is back. This won't be an easy game, but a win for the Vols does wonders for the contentment of the fans and of the program.

Danger Zone Game: vs. Arkansas, 11/10. I almost put South Carolina here; Spurrier still causes concern among Vol faithful, even though he hasn't put the team up among the SEC East elite yet, you know it'll happen. Even with that, Arkansas just demolished the Vols last year; the final score was only 31-14, but it could've easily been more than that. Last year, the Vols knew what was coming and still couldn't stop it. This year will be the same - can they stop it at Neyland?

Final Verdict: All signs point to a 9-3 / 10-2 type season. If the big games were backloaded, I could maybe sign onto a 10-2 / 11-1 regular season, but the team - especially the passing game on both ends - has a lot of growing up to do. The team's success will be directly dependant on that. Of course, last year I expected 8-4, so what do I know?

Memo to Phil Steele

Phil - before I get going with this, I want to say a few things. First off, I have no major problems with the info in your preview magazine. It's incredibly long and incredibly in-depth, which is a huge help for me. The two-page preview for each team is incredibly in-depth, and it's nice to have a plethora of info available for all teams. By the same token, it's nice to see a ton of different rankings (both for the team and the individual). There's a good amount of them.

However - and I say this nicely - it would be awesome if you backed down on the self-promotion a bit. For example, one of your lists talks about the teams most likely to improve between this year and last. The page of text describing this list only talks about the most improved teams from the last seven years, though, not the current season. I know that you have a good record of prediction over the last few years; I've heard it from both professional evaluators and amateur prognosticators. That's great, don't get me wrong.

It's precisely because I know of your track record that I don't need for you to tell me your track record. I know you're good at what you do; I don't need me to tell you that you're good at it. For example, on that page I was talking about, instead of mentioning your past history with the list, talk about why these teams are likely to improve. (If you want to talk about your past success, I'm okay with that too - but just don't make it the entire article.) If you're talking about surprise teams, why are you picking them? It doesn't help me learn why you're picking them when you talk about how a team you picked to surprise 3 years ago was indeed a massive national surprise. That just tells me you're good at figuring these things out - but I already knew that.

If you want to self-promote, that's fine - but please moderate it a bit. I'm spending money on your product because you're good at what you do; you don't need to sell me on the product I already bought. (By the same token, selling the regional previews? No problem with those - I haven't bought them yet.) I'll decide if I'm going to buy your preview next year based on the information contained in this year's, not by the sales pitch. If you promote - which you should do - promote to people that haven't bought it yet.

Again, it's a good product. I just think that it could be better if the self-promotion could be cut back a bit. Thanks.

Maintain.

I've been behind lately (and, as James pretty much came out and said a few days ago, I'm the only person covering baseball here). With the recent move, life has basically gotten in the way the last few weeks - between the job searching and the apartment searching, that's taken up a lot of my time. Still, I've been trying to update in shorter bursts than what I've done in the past, so this only tells part of the story.

The second part? There hasn't been too much that's new about the team. They have won the season series over the Orioles - and I'm sure I'd care about that more if I had lived in DC longer. As of now, all that means is we have collective bragging rights over their fans for the next year. I'd care about that, but:

- I don't know any O's fans
- I wouldn't want to brag and/or gloat with someone who's sick of Angelos

Those two things mean I'd only rub it in to O's fans that support Angelos; has anyone seen those people, ever? I figure there's two of them, and they're probably in Germany.

In addition, the O's aren't even that good. They just fired their manager, hired Andy McPhail in the front office (last job was with the Cubs, IIRC), and Angelos has promised to lay off the baseball operations. I don't believe that for a minute, and I don't think anyone else does either. Still, that doesn't solve their bigger problem of needing to actually retool and reload offensively. There's a ton of issues with the team - not the least of which involve bringing in subpar crappy veterans as continual stopgaps. Anyone who's followed the team for any length of time could tell you that, too.

So what about the Detroit series? Well, that was a pasting - but the Tigers are damn good. Was anyone surprised about that? If anything, I was floored the Nats could even be in a position to win a game. Yeah, it was a flashback to April (and if anything, I've shown I seem to blog more as long as the team's losing, which means I should've had 12 updates over that time period), but we knew that was going to happen at some point.

Now the Nats are facing Cleveland. I'll be at the game tonight - it'll be my first non-Bascik start. I'm excited; Luis Ayala is back. While that seems an odd reason to be excited, Ayala was a fantasy baseball staple for a couple of years for me, and it was a shame to see him get injured for as long as he did. Still, now he's back - and now he's inducing Travis Hafner to ground into inning-ending DPs, which I can't complain about at all. Hell, even Cristian Guzman went yard last night - anything is possible now.

So what am I expecting tonight? Well, I'm not expecting anything out of Brandon Watson. He did go 2-for-4 last night, but that means he's 2-for-7 in limited exposure. That's better than he's done in either of his other ML stints. Eh, whatever. Right now the Nats are 15-27 against teams with a record over .500. Cleveland's 12 games up. I'll connect the dots.

EDIT: in another "milestone", we're finally over 100 posts here. Never saw that coming. In addition, I'm going to update with links to a couple of other articles and websites I write for as well. Stay tuned for those.

I don't really care about baseball, so here's this

It's true. Chris follows baseball fanatically, while I'm aware that the sport exists enough to sometimes watch in October.

College football, on the other hand, is just TWO AND A HALF MONTHS AWAY, and that's exciting. More exciting than, say, watching the Spurs beat the Cavs with the action-packed intensity of an Anaconda strangling a Caiman crocodile in the NBA Finals, which thank God are over.

But why should you care about an NCAA football season that doesn't kick off for another 73 days and whose most important games won't start for another 60+ days after that?

Because SEPTEMBER IS THE MOST IMPORTANT MONTH OF THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON. Yes, September. November is pittance in comparison.

I have often thrown around the statistic that of the 13 teams from BCS conferences who have gone unbeaten over the past 9 years, 12 have gone on to play in the BCS championship game. Never has a BCS unbeaten been left out in favor of any team to have suffered losses during the regular season. But what about the flip side? The old adage is that it's better to lose early than late. Six teams who have lost one game have played in the BCS championship: 98 FSU, 00 FSU, 01 Nebraska, 03 LSU, 03 OU, 06 Florida.

1998 featured just one unbeaten team from a BCS conference, Tennessee, and six teams from BCS conferences with just one loss. The Noles, who were selected to play against Tennessee, lost on 9/12 to NC State. Arizona's only loss of the season came on 10/10 to UCLA. UCLA's lone regular season loss came on 12/5 to Miami. Wisconsin lost on 11/14 to Michigan, and Big Ten co-champ Ohio State lost on 11/7 to Michigan State. Kansas State's perfect season was ruined on 12/5 by Texas A&M in the Big XII championship.

The 00 Noles lost on 10/7 to Miami. That same Miami team lost their only game on 9/9 to Washington, who lost their only game on 9/30 to Oregon. Oregon State suffered their only loss on 10/7, also to Washington.

For the 01 Huskers, it was a loss on 11/23 to Colorado in the Big XII championship. They were selected over an Oregon team whose sole loss came on 10/20 to Stanford. Not a lot of people remember, but Illinois lost just one game that regular season (9/29 to Michigan) and Maryland also finished the regular season 10-1, losing to Florida State on 10/27.

03 LSU lost on 10/11 to Florida and their opponent OU lost on 12/6 to Kansas State in the Big XII championship. They were selected over a USC team who lost their only game on 9/27 to Cal.

06 Florida lost on 10/14 to Auburn. They were selected over a Michigan team who lost their only game on 11/18 to Ohio State. Wisconsin lost just one game as well, on 9/23 to Michigan. Louisville's sole loss came on 11/9 to Rutgers.

Well that's a lot of numbers! Here's what they boil down to:
In only four of nine years have their been two (or more) unbeaten BCS teams at the end of the regular season. In the other five years, a team with one loss has been given a second chance!

Each of those five years, there has been a team that lost its only game in September. That is a total of six teams who lost a game in September but MIGHT have been given a second chance. Only ONE of those SIX teams actually did get a BCS championship game berth, though! The FSU Seminoles in 1998. Of the five teams who didn't, one was left out in favor of a team who lost in November, and the other four were left out in favor of teams who lost in October. (03 USC was actually left out in favor of teams who lost in October and December, since no BCS conference had an unbeaten team in 2003)

Comparatively, THREE of SEVEN teams to have their only loss in October in a season without two BCS unbeatens were given a title game berth. Of the four that didn't, two were left out in favor of a team who lost in November, one who lost in October, and one who lost in September.

ONE of FIVE teams who lost their only game in November in such a season wound up playing in the BCS title game. Of the four who weren't, two were left out in favor of a team losing in October and two in favor of a team losing in September.

ONE of THREE team who lost their only game in December in a regular season with one of less BCS unbeatens wound up in the BCS title game. The two who didn't were both left out in favor of a team who lost in September.

Now, just one weekend of football is played in December and that is mostly conference championships, so we could say that TWO of EIGHT teams who lost after October and still had a chance to get into the title game actually did get into the title game.

In some cases, it was guaranteed that a team losing in that month would be left out. For example, in 2000 it was a certainty that a team losing in October would be left out, since only one of FSU and Oregon State could face unbeaten Oklahoma. Revising the numbers to accomodate for that, September losers got a second chance ONE out of a possible FIVE times, with NONE of the FIVE teams who didn't get that chance being left out in favor of a team who lost in the same month. THREE of a possible FIVE times an October loser got a second chance, with ONE of the FOUR who got left out being left out in favor of a fellow October loser. TWO of a possible FOUR times a Nov/Dec loser got a title berth, with NONE of the SIX teams who got left out being left out in favor of a team who lost in Nov/Dec.

The strange result is that it actually appears WORSE to lose a game in September than in any other month. In fact, if you are going to lose a game, October looks like the month to do it in. Why? While games in November and December are what's fresh on the voters' minds, games in September determine which teams are getting the hype in the first place. Last season in October, everybody was talking about Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Louisville, USC, and West Virginia. One-loss Wisconsin was already long forgotten about, even though they'd go on to finish the year 12-1 with a January bowl win. The computers don't take dates, or even the order of games, into account. But computers do, albeit only in an indirect/abstract fashion, take into account the strength of your conference. Losing in September costs you valuable media hype during the second half of the season and usually hurts your conference as September features a lot of nonconference games. Losing in November/December is fresh on voters' minds, although losing in December sometimes comes after you've already virtually locked up a BCS title game berth or on a weekend when the other contenders have already finished playing. Losing a conference game in October minimizes the "damage."

This is a very roundabout way of saying that September will probably be most important in determining who's in the running for the championship game. So what's on for the first month of the greatest sport played in America?

Sept 1
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame
Washington State @ Wisconsin
Tennessee @ California

Sept 8
Miami @ Oklahoma
Va Tech @ LSU
Oregon @ Michigan
Notre Dame @ Penn State
Nebraska @ Wake Forest
TCU @ Texas
Fresno State @ Texas A&M
Washington @ Boise State

Sept 15
Notre Dame @ Michigan
Ohio State @ Washington
USC @ Nebraska
Fresno State @ Oregon
Tennessee @ Florida
Arkansas @ Alabama

Sept 22
Texas A&M @ Miami (9/20)
Penn State @ Michigan
Georgia @ Alabama

Sept 29
Alabama @ FSU
California @ Oregon


And what about 2007's teams to watch? Who will have their title game or other BCS hopes dashed in September?

Alabama
The Crimson Tide are fresh off a 6-7 season, and have won six or less games in three of the last four seasons. They return 9 offensive starters but just 5 starters on defense. Nonetheless, there's a group of people who believe that Nick Saban can turn this team into title contenders. They're called "residents of the state of Alabama."
9/1: Western Carolina
9/8: at Vanderbilt
9/15: Arkansas
9/22: Georgia
9/29: vs Florida State in Jacksonville

Arkansas
In 2006, Arkansas reversed two straight losing seasons to finish 10-4. Despite the high number of losses, each team to beat them won at least 11 games, including national champion Florida, nonconference foe USC, and bowl foe Wisconsin. They had to defeat a 11-win team, Auburn, to get their own ten wins. This season's schedule is much more forgiving. They return just six starters on each side of the ball, but with McFadden running more Wildcat and unsung fullback Hillis healthy again, their offense should be fearsome. In September, they will only be challenged by a road trip to Alabama. Win that, and they're looking at a 5-0 start before hosting Auburn.
9/1: Troy
9/8: at Alabama
9/15: Kentucky
9/22: North Texas
9/29: UT-Chattanooga

Auburn
After being left out of the championship in 2004, Auburn has a 20-5 record over the past two years. Three losses have come in conference play, though not to any team twice. They return most of their defense and most of the offensive skill players, but must replace four offensive linemen! September includes nonconference games with Kansas State and USF who both played in bowl games and a trip to Florida on the 29th. They will realistically have their sights on a 5-0 start pending a favorable outcome in the Florida game.
9/1: Kansas State
9/8: South Florida
9/15: Mississippi State
9/22: New Mexico State
9/29: at Florida

Boise State
From 2002-2004, the Broncos had three straight one-loss seasons, with losses only to Arkansas, Oregon State, and Louisville. The following season was a down year, with four losses including an 0-2 start and a loss in their bowl game to Boston College. In 2006, the Boise State Broncoes became just the second non-BCS team to finish a perfect season that included a win in a BCS bowl. While leading rusher Ian Johnson returns, the Broncos lose their top four receivers and star QB Jared Zebransky. The Broncos lose 11 starters overall. September is a forgiving month with only Washington to worry about.
8/30: Weber State
9/8: at Washington
9/15: Wyoming
9/22: bye
9/27: Southern Miss

California
Cal is in an interesting situation. Since USC started getting the #1 recruiting class every year since 2003 (according to Steele's which combines all the major recruiting serices' data), only Cal has had much success among the rest of the Pac 10. They have managed a top 25 class each of the past four years. However, they return just five defensive starters in 2007, and this team was already weak defensively for the past two seasons... in fact, their defense has been awful pretty much every season in the BCS era other than 2004. The September schedule includes a visit from Tennessee and a trip to Oregon.
9/1: Tennessee
9/8: at Colorado State
9/15: Louisiana Tech
9/22: Arizona
9/29: at Oregon

Florida
Last year the Florida Gators became the 3rd SEC team to win a BCS championship and the first team with a loss entering the BCS game to upset a previously unbeaten. Florida has won two national titles in the last eleven seasons, but has never finished a season unbeaten! The Gators will have a QB with little experience and 9 new defensive starters, and must host Tennessee and Auburn in September.
9/1: Western Kentucky
9/8: Troy
9/15: Tennessee
9/22: at Mississippi
9/29: Auburn

Florida State
Though the Seminoles finished last season 7-6, Tallahassee is very excited about their 2007 potential. The Noles crushed UCLA 44-27 in an Emerald Bowl that was supposed to determine the leading darkhorse candidate for this season. Their 14 returning starters is the most the team has had since their championship year of 1999. But they may be more excited about who's not coming back, which is offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden replaced by Jimbo Fisher. An opening game visit to Clemson and a later hosting of Alabama are the Noles greatest worries.
9/1: at Clemson
9/8: UAB
9/15: at Colorado
9/22: bye
9/29: vs Alabama at Jacksonville

Fresno State
Since Pat Hill took over Fresno State, the program has built itself up to be one of the premiere mid-major powers. They are known for being willing to play anyone, anywhere. Indeed in the past six seasons, they have played nonconference games against teams from the Pac 10 primarily but also the ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, and SEC. While this tough scheduling has brought its share of losses, the not-that-infrequent wins have brought real respect to the program. Last season, though, the Bulldogs finished a disappointing 4-8 with a new QB. They return just 11 starters, 4 on defense, and travel to Texas A&M and Oregon in their opening three weeks.
9/1: Sacramento State
9/8: at Texas A&M
9/15: at Oregon
9/22: Louisiana Tech
9/29: at Nevada

Georgia
Georgia could be called the best program in the BCS era never to have won a title. Their 9-4 finish last season snapped a streak of four straight 10+ win seasons with a record totalling 53-13 from during the past five seasons. This includes a 4-1 record in bowl games and a 2-1 record in the SEC championship. In the past five seasons, they have lost just one game in September, to BCS champ LSU in the 2003 season. They return seven starters on offense but Stafford at QB is a major concern. Only four starters return on defense. Hosting South Carolina may be surprisingly challenging and they travel to Alabama in the season's opening month.
9/1: Oklahoma State
9/8: South Carolina
9/15: Western Carolina
9/22: at Alabama
9/29: Mississippi

Hawaii
While not generating as much publicity as Boise State or Fresno State, Hawaii has been a third strong team from the WAC in recent years. Despite a losing record in 2005, the Warriors have won 52 games from 2001 on, culminating with a 11-3 2006 record. During that time their bowl record is 3-1. Hawaii returns 8 defensive starters and offensive star Colt Brennan at QB. The Warriors have a cupcake September and I would be shocked if they are not 5-0.
9/1: Northern Colorado
9/8: at Louisiana Tech
9/15: at UNLV
9/22: Charleston Southern
9/29: at Idaho

Louisville
Louisville, or "Lawlvull" as it is pronounced in Kentucky, was recruited by the Big East after an impressive 11-1 season in CUSA, including spoiling Boise State's perfect season in the Liberty Bowl, in a effort to offset some of the talent and prestige lost to the ACC as three schools bolted the conference! West Virginia shocked the Cardinals in 2005, coming back from 20 points down to win in triple OT. The Cards still had a shot at a 10-win season, but blew a lead against Va Tech in the Gator Bowl to finish 9-3. In 2006, everyone knew the Cardinals were serious after they embarassed Miami 31-7 and won a 44-34 shootout without injured star Michael Bush against West Virginia. The Cardinals appeared on their way to ending Rutgers' dream season when they blew a 25-7 lead, and even at 25-25 Rutgers needed a rekick of a FG (due to penalty) to win the game. Lousiville finished 12-1 with a BCS bowl win over Wake Forest. The offense returns 8 starters including Heisman hopeful QB Brohm and the entire WR corps. Though they have a new starter at RB, in reality three backs have significant game experience and good stats. The defensive line and secondary must each replace two starters, and a defensive recovery stands between them and a perfect season. They should easily be 5-0 in September as their schedule is not even worth discussing until November.
9/1: Murray State
9/8: Middle Tennessee
9/15: at Kentucky
9/22: Syracuse
9/29: at North Carolina State

LSU
The LSU Tigers have gone 44-8 in the last four years, including their BCS championship season of 2003. During that span they are 3-1 in bowl games including 2-0 in the Sugar Bowl, and 1-1 in the SEC championship. Their lone bowl loss came on a desparation play by Iowa as time expired. The Tigers return most of their potent defense save for the two stars at safety, and while Flynn is a first year starter at QB he has significant game experience including a Peach Bowl victory over Miami. LSU are picked to finish the season #2 after USC by most preseason mags. Their September schedule includes a visit from Virginia Tech and two weeks later South Carolina. If the team plays to its potential, 5-0 is a likely result.
9/1: at Mississippi State
9/8: Virginia Tech
9/15: Middle Tennessee
9/22: South Carolina
9/29: at Tulane

Miami FL
Larry Coker's tenure at Miami began with a 12-0 national championship season with many considering this team to have been the best ever. The following year they were robbed in the Fiesta Bowl by a phantom PI call that prevented Miami from becoming the first repeat champions of the BCS era. Back-to-back losses in 2003 started the cries for Coker's head, despite a 35-3 total record at Miami! The following season the Canes lost three more games and Coker arguably saved himself by winning the Peach Bowl against Florida. But a 2005 season without ten wins and with a humiliating bowl blowout at the hands of LSU probably sealed his fate. Coker was fired in 2006 and a one-point bowl victory over Nevada prevented the Canes first losing season since 1997. This season Miami returns 16 starters, including 9 on offense and a senior QB. If the offensive line's weaknesses can be fixed, this will be a powerful unit, and the defense is always solid. In September they face two Big XII foes, travelling to Oklahoma and hosting Texas A&M. Fans will expect 5-0 and would be devastated by 3-2. Winning in Norman is probably too much to ask of these Canes, but on the other hand this is Oklahoma in September.
9/1: Marshall
9/8: at Oklahoma
9/15: Florida International
9/20: Texas A&M
9/29: Duke

Michigan
After sharing the 1997 national championship, Michigan has gone 84-28 in the BCS era with no fewer than 7 wins in a season (usually 9 or 10) but also no fewer than 2 losses (usually 3). Chad Henne has caught some flak for a 0-3 record against Ohio State and 0-3 record in bowl games, but little of that is his fault. The defense has twice given up 37 or more points to the Buckeyes to negate good offensive stats, and the defense has given up at least 32 points in each bowl loss, with the loss to Nebraska also having numerous officiating errors which cost Michigan timeouts. Indeed, in their 10 losses under Henne, the offense has put up at least 20 points in eight of those games, with only the Notre Dame loss in 2005 resting squarely on the QB. Despite just returning 10 starters, Michigan returns most of their offensive talent and should be very potent. They will miss Ecker as a safety valve and Breaston for explosive plays. Defensively is where they must worry. Nearly all of their big names from 2006 are gone, although they will not have to start any freshmen. Michigan's defense had been porous in 2004 and 05 before a strong showing in 06, so this is a legitimate concern. September opens with a visit from the defending champions... of division I-AA. Then they host Oregon, Notre Dame, and Penn State before travelling to Northwestern. Oregon's defense was in shambles in 2006, Notre Dame lost the bulk of their offensive talent, and Penn State does not play well on the road. Still that is a tough three-game stretch.
9/1: Appalachian State
9/8: Oregon
9/15: Notre Dame
9/22: Penn State
9/29: at Northwestern

Nebraska
Nebraska had an amazing streak from 1969-2001 in which they won no fewer than 9 games in any season. After a shaky 2002, they again won 10 games in 2003. It has been trying times since then for the Huskers faithful, as in 2004 they had a losing season for the first time anyone could remember. The 2005 team improved to 8-4 with a number of close wins and close losses, and a controversial win in the Alamo Bowl over Michigan. Last season the Huskers made it back to the Big XII championship game but were handled easily by Oklahoma and lost the Cotton Bowl to Auburn. They return just 11 starters but should have an improved QB with Sam Keller now eligible. Their September schedule includes visits from Nevada, USC, and Iowa State and a trip to reigning ACC champ Wake Forest before an October showdown with Missouri that could determine the Big XII North champion.
9/1: Nevada
9/8: at Wake Forest
9/15: USC
9/22: Ball State
9/29: Iowa State

Notre Dame
In Charlie Weis' first season at Notre Dame, the Fightigh Irish started the season 4-1 with victories over three ranked teams before losing at the last second to juggernaut USC in what was a great execution of a near-perfect gameplan. The Irish rolled on to a 9-2 record and a controversial selection over Pac 10 runners-up Oregon, who were 10-1 and ranked higher than Notre Dame in the BCS standings! The Irish faced off against Ohio State in the Fiesta and were run out of the stadium on defense. In 2006, the Irish climbed to #2 before being embarassed by Michigan, and spend the rest of the season hovering around #10. ND would reach a record of 10-1 before back to back blowout losses against USC and LSU. At 10-3, each team to defeat ND did go on to win 11 games, and the Irish themselves beat three teams with 9 wins. However, this season ND will return just 9 total starters and lost their stars at QB, RB, and two WRs. September will be grueling with trips to Penn State and Michigan, and they could be upset by Ga Tech or Purdue as well.
9/1: Georgia Tech
9/8: at Penn State
9/15: at Michigan
9/22: Michigan State
9/29: at Purdue

Ohio State
In Jim Tressel's second year at Ohio State, the Buckeyes surprised the country by going 14-0 and upsetting heavily favored Miami in the Fiesta Bowl, following up a modest 7-5 campaign the season before. The team was heavy with NFL talent and would set a record for number of draft picks in a single year. The Buckeyes were on the outside track of a title game race in 2003 before losing to Michigan to ruin any small hopes they had. 2004 was a tough season as three consecutive losses dropped them from the top 25 until after the bowl games, but they would return to the top in 2005 with a nasty defense and speedy WRs, winning 10 games and a BCS bowl. Last year the Buckeye defense was supposed to struggle, but instead it shone brightly allowing just 86 points in their first 11 games. They got into a shootout victory over Michigan before being shocked and humiliated against Florida in the BCS championship game. The Buckeyes return just 11 starters in 2007 and have questions at QB and WR. But a trip to Washington is their only possible challenge in September, as with Glen Mason gone Minnesota should struggle to find its way in a new spread scheme.
9/1: Youngstown State
9/8: Akron
9/15: at Washington
9/22: Northwestern
9/29: at Minnesota

Oklahoma
In 2003 and 2004, OU lost two national championship games in which their invitation was somewhat controversial. In 2005 they opened the season with a new QB and a 2-3 record but won six of their final seven including a bowl upset of Oregon to finish a respectable 8-4. In 2006 they felt robbed by poor officiating in Oregon, then lost a game to Texas in which they outgained the Longhorns by 110 yards but lost the turnover battle by five! Again they would wright the ship by winning their final 8 including the Big XII championship, before losing to Boise State's amazing series of trick plays and 4th down conversions. Despite returning 15 starters, the Sooners will once again have a new face at QB which has not boded well for them in the early season. Of their seven losses in the past two years, five have come in September or in the Red River Shootout the first weekend in October. OU must host Miami and an away game at Tulsa which is only interesting considering the Sooners' recent September woes.
9/1: North Texas
9/8: Miami FL
9/15: Utah State
9/22: at Tulsa
9/29: at Colorado

Oregon
Quackitty quack quack quack. If you know any Oregon fans, you hear this sound almost EVERY September. Anytime someone mentions 2001 Miami as an all-time great, you hear how they didn't have to play Oregon. (That 2001 team did get a raw deal.) Since then, Oregon has opened 6-0 in 2002 to finish 7-6, 4-0 in 2003 to finish 8-5, 1-3 in 2004 to finish 5-6, 3-0 in 2005 to finish 10-2, and 4-0 in 2006 to finish 7-6. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball, and receiving is the only question on offense as their #2 and #4 yardage gainers are gone. Their top two tacklers are gone but numbers 3-7 all return. But while previous Ducks teams have fared well in September and crumbled later on, this team faces a road trip to Michigan and home matches with Fresno State and Cal in their opening month.
9/1: Houston
9/8: at Michigan
9/15: Fresno State
9/22: at Stanford
9/29: California

Penn State
After two losing seasons, the Nittany Lions rose from the ashes and posted a 11-1 record in 2005, losing their perfect season on a last second play by Michigan and going on to defeat Florida State in an ugly Orange Bowl. They dropped to 9-4 in 2006, but all four losses came to teams with 10 or more victories, they ended the season on a positive note with a January bowl win over Tennessee, and the defense actually allowed fewer points total in more games than 2005. This season, though, they must replace three defensive linemen and five defensive starters overall! While the offense returns 8, it will miss leading rusher Tony Hunt. The September schedule includes a visit from Notre Dame and a trip to Michigan. Notre Dame is a weakened team and should not win in Happy Valley. But I question Penn State's ability to keep up with Michigan's offense in Ann Arbor.
9/1: Florida International
9/8: Notre Dame
9/15: Buffalo
9/22: at Michigan
9/29: at Illinois

Rutgers
In 2006, Rutgers returned to the top 25 for the first time since the 70s en route to a 11-2 season and the school's first ever bowl victory! They rode the backs of star RB Ray Rice, FB Brian Leonard, and a stingy defense that yielded 30+ points just twice all season, both losses. Leonard is gone but Rice should be even better, and Teel is supposed to have made big improvements in passing in the offseason. In all, 13 starters return and the schedule is very favorable.
8/30: Buffalo
9/7: Navy
9/15: Norfolk State
9/22: Maryland
9/29: Cincinnati

South Carolina
OK, I wouldn't call South Carolina title contenders, or even a darkhorse team, but Steve Spurrier's third season at the other USC is going to be interesting. The team returns 7 offensive starters including the QB, and 10 defensive starters. They went 8-5 in 2006 but had losses to Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida all by a TD or less. SC reminds me of the situation Ohio State was in heading into 2002, with the strong returning defense, experienced QB, great coach, and so many close losses the year before. September features three very winnable games but also road trips to Georgia and LSU! Two early conference losses would put a blocker on the Cocks' hopes of winning the SEC East, but even a 4-1 start would have them firmly above the pack. As LSU still looks a bit too hard for them to match up with talent-wise, divisional foe Georgia will be who they hope to defeat to take a step towards penetrating the barrier holding them back and thrust themselves into the SEC elite. Penis.
9/1: UL-Lafayette
9/8: at Georgia
9/15: South Carolina State
9/22: at LSU
9/29: Mississippi State

TCU
TCU has had three 11-win seasons in the past four years and four 10+ win seasons in the last five. They have gone 3-1 in bowl games since 2002, ironically with their lone bowl loss coming to Boise State after they backed out of a GMAC matchup with Ben Roethlisberger and MAC champion Miami, citing conflicts with their exam schedule which the university was able to ignore in a Poinsettia Bowl matchup last year with Northern Illinois. They return 9 defensive starters from a team that gave up just 160 points in 13 games, but return just five on the offensive side and will have to replace QB Ballard. TCU boasts every year of being the #2 team in Texas and complains of voter bias against them. After an opening game hosting Baylor, TCU will travel to Austin to see who the best team in Texas is. Unless it conflicts with parents' weekend or something.
9/1: Baylor
9/8: at Texas
9/15: at Air Force
9/22: SMU
9/29: Colorado State

Tennessee
I don't know that I have ever seen a team with as ugly a mascot as that dog of Tennessee's. The Vols went 5-6 in 2005 with a late-season loss to Vanderbilt costing them bowl eligibility. In 2006 they rebounded to open the season by blowing out highly ranked California in a game that wasn't as close as the 17 point margin indicates. They lost heartbreakers to Florida and LSU before getting run over by Arkansas and having their offense fall apart vs Penn State in the Outback Bowl. Since winning the national championship in 1998, Tennessee is just 2-5 in bowl games and 0-2 in the SEC championship. The Vols return just 11 of 22 starters but have significant experience at QB, with most losses coming to the receiving corps and secondary. Their September schedule includes visits to California and Florida but two easy wins and a bye week as well. The first three weeks will make Tennessee a national title contender if they go 3-0.
9/1: at California
9/8: Southern Miss
9/15: at Florida
9/22: Arkansas State
9/29: bye

Texas
Rarely has the college football world been graced by the presence of a truly great player such as Vince Young. A moment of silence please. The Texas Longhorns won their first national title in 35 years when their 2005 squad upset the USC Trojans in the Rose Bowl. A repeat title was all but a mathematical certainty until Young declared that he would be making the NFL a better place after completing his junior year. After a bad loss to Ohio State, the 06 Horns appeared to still have BCS hopes as they were 9-1, but following an injury to Colt McCoy lost their last two conference games. A close win salvaged their streak of 6 straight 10+ win seasons. While returning just six starters from a defense with coverage problems last season, the offense may be the best in the country and, so long as McCoy stays healthy, should be able to blow through a September schedule in which only TCU should provide a minor challenge.
9/1: Arkansas State
9/8: TCU
9/15: at UCF
9/22: Rice
9/29: Kansas State

Texas A&M
They're being talked about, so I might as well write about em. After losing in the Sugar Bowl to Ohio State in 1998, Texas A&M had seven seasons of irrelevance. If you know much about Aggie culture, this is like 100 years to them. Finally, last season, A&M broke through to win 9 games. They started out 8-1 and playing the Citadel, UL-Lafayette, Army, and La Tech had a little to do with that. Upsetting Missouri was a big deal, but if Colt McCoy didn't get injured against K-State, A&M would have lost their final three games of the regular season... which at least would have meant they wouldn't have to play Cal in the Holiday Bowl and get embarassed. ABC kept hyping up the Holiday Bowl as some big offensive matchup, but only one of these teams had a decent offense; A&M's stats were padded by a cupcake September schedule. Or perhaps they meant that playing against Cal gives you a good offense by default, but that's not the way the game turned out. A&M returns 9 starters from their overrated offense and 6 starters from a defense that gave up 21 ppg. They won't win 9 games this year, but with their mostly easy September schedule, the only game they'll have to worry about that month will be against Miami.
9/1: Montana State
9/8: Fresno State
9/15: UL-Monroe
9/20: at Miami FL
9/29: Baylor

UCLA
Okay I'll admit, I don't understand why people are picking UCLA to finish #2 in the Pac 10. Well obviously, returning 10 offensive and 10 defensive starters has something to do with it. That means they'll be a better version of a team that went 7-6 including 4 conference losses all by 10 or more points, a blowout Emerald Bowl loss to Florida State, and yes an upset of USC in their rivalry game. In the BCS era the Bruins have had just two 10-win seasons and are 2-5 in bowl games. In September their biggest challenges will probably be BYU and Utah, though Oregon State could be decent. With their toughest games all coming later in the season, even 4-1 might not be a good enough start for the Bruins if they have BCS hopes, so they cannot afford to slip up.
9/1: at Stanford
9/8: BYU
9/15: at Utah
9/22: Washington
9/29: at Oregon State

USC
Since 2002, the USC Trojans have won an outright title, shared another, and come 3 points short of a third. They are 4-1 in BCS bowls in the past five years and have won the last four Pac 10 titles including sharing one with Oregon State and Cal in 2006. They have finished each season since 2002 ranked no lower than 4th. Returning 10 defensive starters and with the only offensive questions being at WR, they are as close as there is to being a lock to play in the BCS title game. After opening a home game with Idaho, USC's schedule gets down to business as they travel to Nebraska and finish the season with 9 conference games plus a trip to Notre Dame. The marquee matchup of September is the trip to Nebraska, whose supposedly improved offense might test USC, but who pobably lost too much defensive talent to actually win the game.
9/1: Idaho
9/8: at Nebraska
9/15: Washington State
9/22: at Washington
9/29: Stanford

Va Tech
The Hokies have managed to win 10+ games each of the last three seasons without generating a lot of hype. Last season the defense was excellent but the offense struggled in a conference loss to Boston College and a bowl loss to Georgia, where points were mostly given up by turnovers. The Hokies return 16 starters, and with Glennon and Ore now being more seasoned, the offense should be more consistent. Va Tech is a darkhorse title contender and September features four games they should win easily and a big trip to LSU.
9/1: East Carolina
9/8: at LSU
9/15: Ohio
9/22: William and Mary
9/29: North Carolina

Wake Forest
The Deamon Deacons were the surprise ACC champs in 2006, after three straight losing seasons! Despite not having great stars, they won three games by 3 or less and another two by 7 points. But in their three losses, the offense managed just 12 ppg and must do a better job. Fortunately, they return 9 offensive starters and starting QB Skinner, who played as a true Freshman in 06, has big game experience now. Unfortuantely, the defense that anchored so many wins returns just 5 starters and 4 of the 6 leading tacklers are gone. Wake Forest opens at Boston College then hosts Nebraska before hosting Army, then must host Maryland. BC is very experienced and Nebraska should simply have more talent, so it will be very hard for Wake to start off unbeaten.
9/1: at Boston College
9/8: Nebraska
9/15: Army
9/22: Maryland
9/29: bye

West Virginia
The White-Slaton era began in Morgantown back in 2005, a season of offensive brilliance marred by the inconsistency you'd expect from relying on two freshmen. Only an early season loss to Virginia Tech kept them from a perfect season, as the Mountaineers won an impressive comeback against Louisville and defended the conference's tarnished image with an upset of SEC champion Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Last season the Cardinals got their revenge on WVA, but it was a surprise loss to South Florida that ended their hopes of an at-large BCS berth. Despite a questionable defense, the offense was one of the most feared in the nation, and should be even moreso in White and Slaton's junior years as they add speedster Noel Devine into the mix. The Mounties return 15 starters and should be better on both sides of the ball than they were in an 11-2 2006 season. USF, who upset WVA last year, is on the September schedule, but realistically they will go 5-0.
9/1: Western Michigan
9/8: at Marshall
9/13: at Maryland
9/22: East Carolina
9/28: at South Florida

Wisconsin
Wisconsin has a history of going unmentioned. In 1998, they were one of six teams to finish the regular season with one loss, Big Ten co-champs featuring the nation's stingiest defense and best running back, but were hardly an afterthought in the title game discussion. The following year they went 10-2 and won a second consecutive Rose Bowl, before sinking into obscurity. In the last two years they have risen back to the top, first going 10-3 then 12-1, uncluding two bowl victories over tough SEC foes in the Capital One Bowl! The 2006 defense allowed a shade over half as many points as the 2005 unit in HC Bret Bielma's first year. The Badgers return 16 starters and while they must break in a new QB, he is a senior so he has plenty of practice time in the system if little game experience. PJ Hill should have an outstanding year running the ball, and with Michigan and Ohio State somewhat depleted they could win the Big Ten. Wisconsin hosts Washington State their opening week, a team which could challenge their defense but struggle to slow down Hill. Iowa is a decent matchup, but with the Hawkeyes starting a new sophomore QB and playing in Madison, the Badgers should have the edge in that one.
9/1: Washington State
9/8: at UNLV
9/15: the Citadel
9/22: Iowa
9/29: Michigan State


Predictions coming later...

Feast and Famine

It's tough to get an accurate read on an inconsistent team. Right now, that's the current version of the Nats - I saw them lay a giant egg on Wednesday. Of course, they follow that up by taking the Dodgers out back on Thursday (knew I should've gone to that game instead!). They follow that up by beating up on Jake Peavy the first couple of innings on Friday night and eventually prevailing with a 4-3 win in 10 innings. If you haven't been paying attention, that's pretty impressive; the Padres' bullpen doesn't give up anything. Ever, really.

And then ...well, you have the first inning of Saturday's game. I still can't (or won't) blame Speigner for that. It wasn't his fault Nook pulled a circa 1999 Andruw Jones-style play, pulling up in front of a flyball he should've caught. It wasn't his fault that Guzman on the next play thought A-Rod was behind him yelling, "HAAA!" or "MINE!" or "OMGPWNED!" or a bunch of other random things which caused him to balk at a pop fly which would've been an infield fly had he looked like he was going to, y'know, catch it. It's not his fault Zimm rushed a throw that would've gotten an out at second. Now, it is his fault he gave up all the hits after those plays, but it's not his fault he had to get six outs in one inning. Of course, none of those plays were errors, meaning that the official record blamed Speigner. It wasn't his fault.

I missed the first inning today; I should probably reword that "missed" the first inning today (air quotes!). Micah Bowie promptly ate it, as far as I can tell. Of course, the Nats did come back, only to give it back late and end the Padres series the same way they ended the Dodgers series: with a 1-2 record.

Coming up next? The Pirates, who feature a predominantly lefty rotation and no offense to speak of. I'm going to the game on Tuesday, which means that, yes - I'm seeing two Mike Bascik starts in a row.

Why'd I move here again?

Game Report from May 30th

So I finally got to RFK for my first game (yeah, I know; I didn't live in DC before now). As games go, it wasn't terribly exciting from my perspective; I really only got into the game once a group of Dodger fans 3 sections over started making a lot of noise in the top of the 9th. I don't have a problem with making noise when you're the away team - it's a great opportunity to be a prick, since ....well, everyone expects it of you - but don't wait until the 9th to cheer your team on to victory. If you're gonna be that guy, you can't be that guy only at the end of the game - you've got to be that guy from the beginning. Otherwise you're an effective bandwagoneer, and there's no fun in that.

Anyway, I'm going to handle this in the stupidest way I know how: the mock interview.

What'd you think of RFK?
It seemed to be pretty plainly designed as a football stadium. That's not a bad thing, really - it was just slightly disorienting at first. The crowds weren't too bad, and I can't really speak to the facilities or the concessions, as I didn't use either of them.

How'd the game look early?
I figured the Nats had a shot; Bascik did a good job through the first couple of innings and Derek Lowe was going to three-ball counts on almost everyone in the first two innings. Church got CS on what I think was a botched hit-and-run - Lowe threw it near Schneider's feet. Lowe was missing low and away on righties big-time through the first couple of innings, and I figured he'd compensate by throwing mid-in on righties.

And yet that didn't happen. Why?
Lowe found his groove somewhere around Nook's first AB (and, while we're at it: no balls hit out of the infield tonight for the Nookster, although Garciaparra made a good play his first AB to rob him of a double). He rattled off 11 straight ground balls or strikeouts (one of those was FLop's single through the middle).

It's frustrating watching a groundball pitcher when he's on. He'll make the opposition look foolish if he's a great groundballer - or just ineffective if he's okay at what he does. Lowe falls into the latter camp, and even though he was racking up the pitch count (brought on by many three-ball counts), he still had plenty left in the tank. That was the case here.

Meanwhile, Bascik was giving up line drives left and right. The two runs scored in the 5th were definitely legit; both Gonzo and Ethier had well-hit balls, and ....for the love of god, don't walk the pitcher. Why do the guys who suck (Pierre, the pitchers) scare the Nats?

When did it go to hell?
Thanks go to Cristian Guzman and Ray King for that.

Guzmania? Booted an easy ground ball. I was actually explaining the concept of unearned runs to my girlfriend when she asked, "So if Russell Martin hits a HR both runs are unearned, right?" ... and sure enough, that happened about a minute later. (Sadly, this was not a mojo-changing experience, but it was funny.) He also lucked the hell out with both his hits; I thought the first one should've been an error (booted grounder by Abreu + bad throw) and the second one was cheese - but the Starcraft "OMG 4 POOL" kind of way.

Ray King? 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 ER. The walk? To the pitcher. Of course. Saul Rivera allowed Lowe to score.

...that about covers it.

Time Capsule: Dear Jason - Sorry!

(Editor's note: this is the final in a series of three articles I wrote last week and didn't post until now. I look forward to forgetting to update for a month.)

I was wrong. Totally, entirely, completely wrong.

After Jason Bergmann walked half the RFK concession staff in his first start of the season, I figured he was going to be embarrassing. Not just bad - completely inept. His next couple of starts weren't as jaw-droppingly bad - the control was better, and he was turning some of those walks into Ks.

His next few starts after those were better; however, I still had his first start seared into my brain and I chalked up this success to dumb luck - he's missing bats now, but that's just because everyone is willing to swing at the slop he's throwing. That won't last through the next game. Or the one after that. If not then, it'll be over next week. Meanwhile, we moved past the small sample size part of the season - he was still dealing.

By now, I had started to figure that he'd be okay in the middle of the rotation; the threat to blow up is there, but it's not as likely as I thought. (And really, who isn't a threat to blow up in the Nats' 2007 rotation?) And then .... Monday night. You've probably (edit: ...by now, definitely. From everyone else) read about it already - 7 innings of no-hit ball. I was already starting to believ, but now? He's the staff ace.

(edit: the following paragraph is hilarious in retrospective; Bergmann went on the DL on the 18th, retroactive to the 15th)

Of course, that's not entirely his doing; with both Hill and the Delicate Flower on the DL, he's as much the de facto ace as he is the de jure ace. Were they both healthy, he'd probably be the #2 guy behind Hill. I wouldn't complain if he was the ace, though.

Question for discussion: let's say both Patterson and Hill come back healthy and dealing. How do they get ordered in the rotation - and more importantly, does the Nats' staff start to sniff league average? My heart quickens at the prospect.

--------------------------------

Postscript: of course, most of this is kind of irrelevant now, thanks to Bergmann's DL stint. Unfortunately, that also means the Nats' first three starters are on the DL, which: good times. Still, there's more here than I thought there was going to be at first. Right now? I'll take that.

Time Capsule: Everybody Line up to Jump over the Cliff

(Editor's note: this is the second of a series of three articles I wrote last week and didn't post until now. Still, since I put forth the effort I didn't want to have them go to waste.)

The previous post was silver lining; now it's back to the dark cloud. The good news is that in Shawn Hill's last start, he threw 5 innings of no-hit ball. The bad news is that he had to leave the game early due to elbow trouble - and a few days later he landed on the DL. Oddly enough, he went on the DL officially for a torn labrum in his non-pitching shoulder.

------------------------------------------

I'm reminded of a Dilbert cartoon. In it, Dilbert asks Wally why he hasn't responded to Dilbert's inquiry (we don't know what he asked about; it's not really relevant); was it just a simple oversight or something more sinister? Wally answers that it's the sinister reason; he's withholding information in an attempt to inflate his own value. (The strip's last panel shows Alice stealing Wally's computer tower behind his back, which is funny but not really important to the point at hand.)

I can't help but feel this is the case here; when it's been fairly obvious for a while now that Hill's elbow was troubling him, why is he on the DL due to labrum issues? Are the Nats hiding something hideous? It would suck if a MRI of Hill's elbow revealed the internal equivalent of Shredded Wheat - but if it does, shouldn't we know? It's not going to kill all hope for the season if that's the case. (You can't kill something that's already dead! Especially if you're not in a zombie movie.) What would suck is hearing that it's a different injury entirely at first - and then having his elbow knock him out for the season.

To be fair, I could be overreacting. Maybe it is his labrum that's really the problem. If it is, great; while he's resting that it'll give his elbow time to recover as well. At the very least it won't hurt any more than it currently does - and that's a good thing (edit: Captain Obvious to the rescue; I need to edit my work better). I'm just afraid we'll get the "there's been setbacks" articles soon. If he's done, he's done - but if he's done when you say he's not, that kills.

(Postscript: news from May 19 says Hill feels fine.)

Time Capsule: On Winning Steaks and Sweeps

(Editor's note: this is the first of a series of three articles I wrote last week and didn't post until now. Still, since I put forth the effort I didn't want to have them go to waste.)

Winning fixes a lot of problems. Actually, "fix" is probably too strong a word - "glosses over" would be a better phrase. The Nats' recent 4-game winning streak (edit: May 11-14) sure didn't fix much - but it self pretty good. There's still plenty of dark cloud to this silver lining (is at a good sign you need to go on a run to break the .333 mark?), but they'll be plenty of time to talk about that dark cloud this season. Let's focus on some positives:

- Starting pitching. Jason Bergmann and Shawn Hill had two outstanding starts - and not just in the "oh, he got us into the 7th down by 1" way; they threw a combined 12 innings of no-hit ball. Heck, even Jason Simontacchi picked up his first win in 4 yeras. Matt Chico managed to not look totally lost out there, too. I wouldn't expect this every time out, but stringing together four decent starts in a row? I'll take it.

- Good bullpen work. Absent a true closer for most of the weekend, the Nats didn't do too bad without one. Yeah, they'll have bad weeks (too much use will cause everyone to implode at some point), but when they're on they seem to do well as a group. There's enough skill and - dare I say - talent to not be completely incendiary most of the time. This weekend, they weren't.

- Clutch hitting. Where has this been all year? I can't recall actually being confident that a runner on third with less than two outs will score until this weekend. To be fair, the Nats were bound to improve to the mean eventually; it was nice to see that happen in conjunction with good pitching. (Also, I dont know if an inside-the-park HR counts as clutch, but it was still a lot of fun!)

Of course, no team is as good as they are when they're winning, and I'm not so optimistic as to think they've turned some mythical corner and will proceed to challenge .400 (or - god forbid - .500). Still, it's fun to see everything mesh together neatly every once in a while. Probably more importantly, it's good to see that this team's individual components can be better than what we've seen before - and especially what we saw from them during the last road trip (edit: April 30 - May 9). It's not perfect, but you know what? I'll take it.

Nats/Brewers: A Postscript

Good teams find ways to win games they probably shouldn't. By that standard, the Brewers are a good team; the fact they've won any games started by Dave Bush would indicate that. They're winning even with what's effectively an offensive zero at the hot corner - another sign they're good. It wouldn't be too surprising to see them continue this start through the season, and if they do - good for them. It's been hard times in Milwaukee for a while, and this season's incarnation of the Brew Crew is both young and talented.

What's the inverse of a good team? By the previous definition, it'd be a team that loses games it should win. The Nats certainly qualify here - bad pitching, bad hitting (especially with RISP), squandering what good pitching they do get, etc., ad nausem. It'd then stand to reason that when a good team faces a bad team, the good team should win going away - and that's what happened.

Take Monday night as the first example. Matt Chico had his first quality start - 7 IP, and a little high on the hits, but given his previous outings it wasn't terrible. It was probably his first good start as a Nat. Low pitch count, too - only 93 pitches through 7. Of those pitches, 92 were good - but 1 of them was a duck crushed by Geoff Jenkins for a 3-run HR. That type of result should happen; bad pitches, by their nature, should be punished. Still, it's kind of bad luck, but not so much that it's totally impossible to believe. In addition, it's only a three-run deficit - most teams can come back from that.

Unfortunately, most teams aren't the Nats (who, as previously stated, can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag). They had opportunities, in a fashion - 1st/3rd with 2 outs in the 4th (popout), a ground rule double with 2 out in the 6th (K). Their best opportunity was in the 9th, hands-down - 1st and 2nd with only one out. Granted, by that point they're probably not going to win anyway... but a swinging K and a flyout won't bring the runners home. Not great. With unexpectedly good pitching from the back end of your rotation, you have to take advantage of it... and the Nats didn't on Monday.

So what about Tuesday? The offense clicked, kind of - they scored in the first inning for the first time in ...well, a while. They scored four runs total - most in the later innings, but it's still four runs. (Why yes, David Bush was starting for the Brewers; how'd you know?) However, Jason Simontacchi couldn't get it together, allowing 4 runs in only 6 IP, leaving Winston Abreu (welcome to the big leagues!) to give up the 5th and ultimately deciding run. Blown opportunites this game? Let's check it out!
- 2nd inning: 1st and 2nd, nobody out (DP / 6-3)
So that wasn't really the problem. This time, it can just be blamed on bad pitching and questionable defense (read: Robert Fick, who's another issue entirely).

What about Wednesday? Well, we can revisit the mantra of crummy hitting (5 hits) if we want. Lack of clutch hitting? 2nd / 3rd with 2 outs in the 2nd (K) kind of counts - they got there on a WP. 1st and 2nd with one out in 6th (pop, flyout) was the only other opportunity; you have to get hits first to fail in the clutch! So, what was the problem here? This time, blame the relievers - the combination of Jesus Colome and Micah Bowie in particular. 1-1 going into the bottom of the 8th, 3-1 Brewers coming out. Why? Just your usual 1B / 1B / 1B / WP two-run inning (which are normally the most painful; they're not hitting the ball hard, but it's just where the defenders aren't).

So: three games, three losses in three different ways. The Nats are doomed, right? Fortunately, that's not quite the case (but it's close!). There is some talent, according to the technical definition of the term. That'll mean there's a little light at the end of the tunnel that may not be an oncoming train. The Nats won't continue to be as abysmal as they have been with RISP (...right?). At the very least, statistical variation means they'll win some games - there will be some combinatino of good pitching, decent hitting, and roughly passable defense. They can all occur separately - as they did last week - but they'll happen on the same night sometimes, too. Let's just hope it happens another 32 times the rest of the season.

6 thoughts over the last 2 games

1: The Jason Bergmann bubble popped on Friday. It was a fun ride while it lasted, and this time around it wasn't due to what I was afraid of happening (bad control). He was just hit hard - 8 H in only 6 IP. K/BB ratio wasn't bad (2:1), and I don't remember offhand how much of the outing could be blamed on bad D (my guess: probably one of the hits, maybe two). Still, it's at least a theoretical sign of concern / encouragement; I've been worried for a while that if/when Bergmann would implode, it'd be of the Oliver Perez "I'm walking everyone in the stadium" variety. This wasn't that - it was just getting beat up. That, in it of itself, is expected.

2: John Patterson left the game early yesterday. Surprised? I'm not - but he was sidelined by a bicep problem. Pick your joke (increasing levels of cynicism):
A - at least it wasn't his forearm
B - he's always been injured
C - he strained it giving himself a hug to feel better
D - this does nothing to fix his poor broken soul
Bottom line, this would hurt in theory, but since he's effectively - at best - the #3 starter now anyway, whatever. In this rotation, #3 = replacement level.

3: The Jesus Flores "two guys are" Watch(ing) continues. 3-for-4 on Friday, and if Schenider continues to bite it, I'll be curious to see if Bodes can either spin him off for something that could possibly be useful.

If you've ever played sim baseball, this next paragraph will make sense - if not, hang on. The catching situation is like having a 1-star starting C and a 2-star prospect in the big leagues. The prospect might be useful, but the starter sure as hell isn't. Flip the starter to see what you can get - if it's some middling crap middle reliever, so be it, but at least he's cheaper. Put the prospect in and see what happens; if you're not in a pennant race, who cares? You were getting a zero there anyway, it might as well be a cheaper zero.

(Kasten would be so proud!)

4: Ryan Langerhans watch: 0-3 with 2 Ks, first PH off the bench on Friday and Saturday and defensive replacement in LF (for Kasto). Trade back! Maybe they can talk Langerhans into hitting righty.

5: Three boos for Levale Speigner walking in the bases loaded yesterday. Not that he was really going to do anything useful anyway, but walking in a run is probably the most disheartening situation to be in as a fan - and walking in three in a row? Kind of inexcusable. Of course, once the runs started to be earned for him he got out of the inning - hope he gets some kind of present for knocking Patterson's ERA up (and his arbitration number down!).

6: Zimm hasn't had a bad last couple of games: 4-for-8 with a couple of walks. One double both games, with a SB yesterday (whee) to boot. I'm thinking that with an increase in walks, Zimm's value will go back up; I don't have the time at the moment to go delve into his past history to see if that's actually a useful indicator or not, but it makes intuitive sense. His OBP is only .309 so far, but that's well above the .236 (OBP Mendoza?) he was showing a couple of weeks ago.

Spinning the Wheels

First off, my apologies for not posting here in a while; I was out of town and out of touch for a few days this past weekend, and the last couple of days have been lost to studying for finals. Updates will be semi-sporadic for a few days as finals continue and graduation stuff kicks in. (We'll address late May when we get there.)

Anyway, getting back to the topic at hand, it's gotten around the wires and blogs by now, but Chris Snelling has been traded for Ryan Langerhans, who ended up on the A's. Mariners fans can now immolate themselves when Snelling does well against them, and Braves fans can now do the same when Langerhans ....nah, who am I kidding. My initial reaction to the deal was somewhere solidly in the "WTF?" territory; that can be blamed on my perceptions of Snelling (not quite as rose-colored as USS Mariner, but probably not too connected with reality either) and Langerhans (bad). Admittedly, I didn't know much about Langerhans beyond he was one of those multiple Braves' OFs last year - I didn't even know he was pawned off to the A's.

Now that I've had a chance to process the deal, I'm coming up with ...well, treading water. Maybe it's a step forward, but it's not a giant step forward - maybe it's just a small step back. I don't know. Langerhans brings multi-positional defense and (depending on who you talk to) either a slightly worse bat than Snelling's or one approximately equal. In addition, he's under contract for another year than Snelling was. In it of itself, that's not bad - and if he can do something to keep one of the two Black Holes of Suck out of the lineup, then I can't blame him too much for that. (He can play CF; it remains to be seen if he will.)

Of course, we don't know how Langerhans will be used. If he's used like Snelling-plus, then I really can't complain; he wouldn't be actively sapping Church or Kearns of ABs beyond what they'd need for a rest period, he'd be a good late-inning defender (one that actually would be a defensive improvement), and he ...well, unless they teach him to switch hit, he won't be a righty bat off the bench. Can't win them all, I guess. In addition, if he's platooning in center then that will - as implied earlier - keep Logan out of the game, which has to be a good thing.

On the other hand, this isn't a gamebreaking trade. This looks like the equivalent of changing a font style. You can do it - and some people may like it a little more, which is good, right? - but it doesn't change the content. It won't turn the page you're designing into a masterpiece, and it won't turn this team into a contender. That's okay - if you think the team's going to compete this year, you're nuts anyway. However, making too many of these trades just seems like Bodes is shuffling the deck. One? Sure. Two? Eh, maybe. But unless this is going somewhere, it's not really that worth it.