a history and analysis of bcs controversy

(post still in editing/progress...)

Almost every season, the BCS has brought with it some sort of controversy. Six of the nine championship game selections have been controversial, and at least two of the at large bid selections. By far the Pac 10 has gotten the worst of this deal. Ask a Pac 10 fan, and they'll tell you that their conference has repeatedly been screwed over by the BCS because the nation has an anti-west coast bias. They'd be half right...


1998 BCS Championship Game:
#1: Tennessee, SEC champ and unbeaten
#2: Six teams (!) with one loss apiece
* Florida State, #2 in both polls with one loss (24-7 to NC State)
* Ohio State, #3 in both polls with one loss (28-24 to Michigan State)
* Kansas State, #4 in both polls with one loss (36-33 to Texas A&M, B12CG)
* UCLA, #5.5 poll average with one loss (49-45 to Miami in their last game)
* Arizona, #5.5 poll average with one loss (52-28 to UCLA)
* Wisconsin, #8.5 poll average with one loss (27-10 to Michigan)

Florida State had the benefits of losing early and of defeating four teams with nine or more wins after that loss. Not only were they comfortably #2 in the polls, but the computers had them almost on par with Tennessee.

Considering the number of teams in contention, there was surprisingly little commotion about the actual selection. Of note, Ohio State and Wisconsin never faced each other and were conference co-champs, and this was the only season where the voters placed a Big 12 team over a Pac 10 team with the same record in their polls when both were vying for BCS spots.


2000 BCS Championship Game:
#1: Oklahoma, B12 champ and unbeaten
#2: Five teams with one loss apiece
* Miami, #2 in both polls with loss to Washington
* Florida State, #3 in both polls with loss to Miami
* Washington, #4 in both polls with loss to Oregon
* Oregon State, #5.5 poll average with loss to Washington
* Virginia Tech, #5.5 poll average with loss to Miami

Oregon State and Virginia Tech were without the marquee wins of Miami and Washington, and were thus eliminated in favor of the perceived best teams in their respective conferences. Miami lost the second game of the year at Washington by five points and won their final nine by devastating margins. Washington lost their fourth game of the year at Oregon by 7, and finished with six straight wins that for the most part were close games. Florida State lost in the first weekend of October at Miami by a field goal before winning six straight blowouts. The polls seemed to reward Miami for losing early and winning big, while punishing Washington for winning just two of their final seven games by more than a TD. From my vague recollection, this was a season where Washington's media coverage really paled in comparison to both FSU's and Miami's. The Pac 10 was very competitive that season, with an Oregon State team loaded with NFL talent on offense (they would crush Notre Dame 41-3 in the Fiesta Bowl) and Oregon having ten wins as well. Retrospectively, if the 2000 season was the start of the 2000-02 mini-dynasty, Miami was in fact the best choice, but of course nobody knew that at the time.

2001 BCS Championship Game:
#1: Miami, Big East champ and unbeaten
#2: Four teams with one loss apiece and a twice-beaten conference champion
* Oregon, #2 in both polls with loss to Stanford
* Colorado, #3 in both polls with losses to Fresno State and Texas
* Nebraska, #4 in both polls with loss to Colorado
* Maryland, #6 poll average with loss to Florida State
* Illinois, #7 poll average with loss to Michigan

Maryland and Illinois were hit for playing weak schedules and for being unheralded in previous seasons. Both those teams were fresh off a 5-6 season. Comparatively, Oregon had gone 10-2 with a bowl win over Texas in 2000 and Nebraska had finished 10-2 with a bowl massacre of Northwestern. The Huskers hadn't won fewer than 9 games since 1969. Our Big Ten and ACC champs simply weren't given the same consideration, whether they actually deserved a spot or not.

I have no idea how a two-loss team was even being considered. Colorado lost to a non-BCs team and got massacred 41-7 by Texas. I think what happened is that nobody really paid attention to this team until they got hot... we're talking about just a one time zone difference from the west coast, so similar "late night" issues for watching their games. People tuned in to watch them take on then-unbeaten Nebraska in their season finale rivalry game and witnessed by far the best four quarters of Colorado's season. The following week, they face Texas and Mack Brown's decision to play Chris Simms over Major Applewhite in that game is probably the root of why people doubt Brown as a coach. The stats were something like Colorado outscored Texas 36-0 with Simms in the game and were outscored 37-3 with Applewhite in. (yes it's probably a little less extreme than that) But if that's what people were basing their opinion of CU on, then they looked pretty good for six quarters there.

This Oregon team (and perhaps 2003 USC, though their location in LA was also a huge factor) I think defines each side of the West Coast syndrome, aka "anti-west coast bias." Ask yourself this - how many Oregon games did you watch at least two full quarters of during the 2001 regular season? Zero, one... maybe two? And that's probably all of the Oregon games you saw. Strangely, I think this is an advantage for them in the age of modern media. What most people know of that Oregon team are SportsCenter highlights of Joey Harrington throwing TD after TD, the defense coming up with a key third down stop or forced turnover, and the like. Five of Oregon's ten wins going into the bowls came by one score or less, but that's not the visual impression you get from watching the highlights. But on the flip side, watching what looks like highlights from massacre games also makes the rest of the Pac 10 look weak. In reality, Stanford and Washington State both finished that season 9-2 before the bowls, but that same parade of Harrington highlights that made the Ducks look like the runaway #2 team also made it look like they played a bunch of patsies. Yes, the objectively calculated computer polls happened to agree with the idea that Nebraska and Colorado faced tougher schedules. But the discrepancy was greater in the only semi-objective SOS and Quality Wins factors, where what matters is how the human voters are ranking your competition. Colorado had gigantic quality wins points for victories over Nebraska and Texas, and both Big 12 teams SOS points combined added to less than Oregon's (low BCs point totals were good back then). It's somewhat paradoxical, because my feeling is still that if more people had watched the Pac 10 and Big 12 seasons closely, Nebraska would have been given the nod for having a more impressive season (though the lateness of their loss may have still lead to a #2 ranking for the Ducks who had rebounded from their loss to win four straight) but Oregon's schedule would have been given more respect.

This was the first of many times that, given a Pac 10 and Big 12 team with the same record and similar resumes, the voters went with the Pac 10 but the team who got the nod was from the Big 12.

2003 BCS Championship Game:
#1 and #2: three one-loss teams
* USC, #1 in both polls with a loss to Cal
* LSU, #2 in both polls with a loss to Florida
* Oklahoma, #3 in both polls with a loss to Kansas State (B12CG)

LSU was the least controversial here... as the voters, computers, and composite BCS standings all had the Tigers at #2. The Tigers had the #1 defense in the country and had just won the SEC to advance to the Sugar Bowl. Following a win over Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, it was clear that LSU had indeed belonged in the title game.

Oklahoma was called the greatest team of all time for most of the season. They scored at least 50 points in four straight games, culminating that stretch with a 65-13 win over Texas. In mid November, they humiliated Texas A&M 77-0, begging the question of whether they could be beaten. But once again, the Big 12 foiled itself in the conference championship game, with a three-loss Kansas State team exposing OU's weakness against the option and harassing Jason White into multiple turnovers in a dominant victory. That was the Sooners' final game, and it dropped them to third.

This lead USC to become the #1-ranked team in the nation. The Trojans were supposed to struggle on offense without Carson Palmer, but newcomer Matt Leinart led an attack that scored at least 40 points in their final seven regular season games. The defense had some holes but did pitch two shutouts and was one of the top teams against the run with an outstanding front four. Receiver Mike Williams tied the NCAA TD record for a freshman.

This season and the following were really the most controversial, because prior to the game you couldn't say that one of these three teams was definitely less deserving than the other two. In fact, with the Sugar Bowl being a seven point game and the Rose Bowl being decided by 14, you couldn't even say that afterwards, nor did LSU or USC appear clearly better than the other. Perhaps the split decision was the most fitting for a season that really begged for one more game.

Again the West Coast Syndrome played a big role in this decision, and USC's location in the nation's second largest city did as well. On the media side, LSU and Oklahoma were two schools about as removed from a major media center as it gets. There was nowhere near the push for these schools that there was for SC, and the voters' overwhelming preference for the Trojans despite fairly similar resumes for all three schools seems to indicate that this was a factor. Playing in the SEC gave LSU enough of a schedule advantage over USC to claim the #2 spot in the computers, and by the human and computer polls alone we would have had LSU vs USC for the title. However the additional points swung heavily in OU's favor. The Sooners benefited from the Big 12 having themselves, KSU, Nebraska, and Texas all finishing with at least nine wins. OU's nonconference schedule included a pair of 9-win midmajors, UCLA, and Alabama. This led to big SOS and Quality Win points for the Sooners. While in 2001 a strong Pac 10 suffered from image problems, in 2003 the conference (aside from USC) was on a cyclical downswing. USC did have an impressive nonconference win on the road over Auburn, but BYU and Notre Dame were non-BCS conference teams with sub-.500 records. Underrating the west coast may have played a factor with Washington State who finished the regular season 9-3, I can't recall.

Once again, the voters had chosen the Pac 10 team but it was the Big 12 team who played in New Orleans.


The 2004 season had a double dose of controversy.

2004 BCS Championship Game:
#1 and #2: three unbeaten teams
* USC, #1 in both polls
* Oklahoma, #2 in both polls
* Auburn, #3 in both polls

The Trojans followed their AP championship season with a perfect 2004. Though in many games they appeared to just squeak by, it was in fact an improved defense that finished the regular season #2 in scoring that allowed them to survive such close games. For most of the regular season, the offense struggled to produce the same output they had with Mike Williams as the go-to guy, but they gave up almost 6 ppg less than the season before and were always able to score when they needed to. The Trojans began the season with a road victory over Virginia Tech and gave Cal their only loss in a revenge game. The hype machine behind USc was huge, and as defending co-champ, there was really never any question that they would play in the NC game if they ran the table.

Oklahoma's weakness in 2003 was its lack of a running game, and freshman back Adrian Peterson appeared to be the answer to their offensive flaw. However, a depleted secondary was often exposed as the Sooners had several big halftime deficits in conference play. They finished the season with three absolutely dominating victories allowing a total of six points over that stretch, albiet against weak B12 North competition.

Auburn started off the season ranked well below both USC and OU. The Tigers had gone just 8-5 the season before, but with the nation's new #1 defense and an all senior backfield trio, the Tigers coasted though most of their season, being tested only by LSU and blowing out good teams like Tennessee and Georgia. Unfortunately, Auburn had a nonconference opponent drop out at the last second, and their replacement The Citadel destroyed the Tigers otherwise superior SOS. With a low preseason ranking and next to zero media hype, the Tigers finished #3 in the polls and with no big nonconference wins they finished #3 in the computers.

Though it wound up not mattering as it was the SEC champion who was relegated to watching from home, yet again the voters had picked the Pac 10 team while the computers had picked the Big 12 team. By the end of the night the voters had clearly made the correct choice and we were left wondering if Oklahoma even belonged in that game.

2004 BCS At Large Berth
#1: Utah automatically qualifies for winning non-BCS conference and finishing top 6
#2: two one-loss teams
* Cal, #4 in both polls, loss to USC
* Texas, #6 in AP and #5 in coaches, loss to Oklahoma

Cal began the season incredibly impressive on both sides of the ball; at one point they were in the top 6 for both scoring offense and scoring defense. In their lone loss to USC, the game was very competitive and in fact Cal outgained USC by nearly 200 yards and had four shots at the end zone with a minute left to win the game; despite completing 29 of his first 31 passes, Aaron Rodger's final four all fell incomplete. One was even dropped by an open receiver. Several turnovers negated the yardage advantage as overall it almost appeared that Cal was the better team.

Texas played inconsistently for most of their season but had the game's ultimate X-factor in Vince Young, who repeatedly brought them back for dramatic victories. Against Oklahoma, offensive coordinator Greg Davis went beyond conservative, and despite one of the Longhorns' better defensive efforts of the year to hold OU to 12 points, the watered-down offense was shut out in an embarrassing defeat. Texas would later need some huge 4th down conversions and a controversial call to defeat lowly Kansas and preserve their BCS hopes.

Going into the final week, Cal had the edge over Texas #4 to #6 in the AP Poll and #4 to #5 in the coaches. The AP was actually by about 1.25 spots and the coaches by .75... with Texas's solid two-spot lead in the computers, the two schools were in a virtual tie for 4th place in the BCS standings with Cal ahead by less than 13/10000 of a point. Texas had played their final game against Missouri, winning 26-13. The final week would see Cal's eleventh game, on the road vs a non-BCs team, Southern Miss. The Golden Bears outgained the Golden Eagles by over 200 yards, but a missed FG, turnover on downs, and an INT negated three drives totaling 169 yards. They also missed a PAT late in the 4th quarter when they had just bumped the lead to 10. For viewers, these squandered opportunities were reminiscent of the USC game, and Cal's close victory over a mediocre team probably cost them the decisive points.

Following the end to Texas's season, Mack Brown hit the campaign trail to stump for his team. Texas believed that they should have played in one or two BCS bowls from 2000-2003, but instead had repeatedly been sent to the Holiday Bowl and once to the Cotton Bowl. No way, Brown vowed, would the Longhorns be left out for their fourth consecutive 10-win season. Brown's stumping had almost no effect on voters between Nov 21 and Nov 28, but perhaps because he could devote all of his time to it following Texas's last game Nov 27, and perhaps because the points sounded more valid after Cal struggled than after they won via blowout, Texas gained enough votes to reverse the final lead to 13/1000 in their favor. A few ballots contained absurdities such as having Cal at #7, leading the AP to question the integrity of the BCS and pull their poll starting in 2005.

Cal fans blame Brown's "dishonorable" campaigning while Texas fans say Cal gets the blame for not making a strong statement to finish the season; in reality given the extreme closeness of the BCS standings on Nov 28, either Brown's campaigning for Texas or the unimpressive victory would have cost the Bears the #4 spot without the other. The combination of the two gave Texas the equivalent of about a .3 spot edge overall, still very close.

When people look back on this selection, Cal's apparent huge lead over Texas in the polls is somewhat misleading - this being the first year exact averages were used, Cal's numerical lead was less than 1 spot in the AP poll despite the appearance of a two-spot edge, and a virtual tie in the Coaches poll (5 votes separated the two). Nonetheless, they had been chosen over the Longhorns in both human polls, and it was the Longhorns who played in the Rose Bowl. This was now the third time the voters chose a Pac 10 school while the BCS formula awarded the spot to a Big 12 school, and the fourth time (counting USC>OU>Auburn) that the voters ranked the Pac 10 team higher while the computers favored the Big 12 team.

It is also noteworthy that by the standings, Texas and Cal should have gotten at large bids with Utah being left out. However as the Utes were unbeaten, their inclusion was not protested much.

2005 BCS At-Large Berth
#1 and #2:
* Ohio State, #4 in both polls, losses to Texas and Penn State
* Oregon, #6 Coaches' poll, #5 Harris poll, loss to USC
* Notre Dame, #5 Coaches' poll, #6 Harris poll, losses to USC and Michigan State

Despite having two losses, most people were content with Ohio State being ranked above one-loss Oregon. After all, Oregon's loss to #1 USC was at home by 32 points, while Ohio State's two losses totaled 10 points to the #2 and #3 teams in the nation. A popular argument was that Ohio State could have gone 10-1 with Oregon's schedule, but Oregon might not have been able to go 9-2 with Ohio State's.

Nonetheless, Ohio State alone couldn't cost Oregon a deserved BCS Berth. Notre Dame had finished 6-6 the year before, but now with Charlie Weiss, OMFG NORTE DAME WAS TEH BACK!!1 GG!!! Notre Dame did play one hell of a game to almost beat USC, but they also lost to a Michigan State team who finished the season 5-6. The Spartans started off 4-0 and beat ND during that span... one writer actually rationalized that defeating the Irish took everything MSU had and they just couldn't keep that energy up for the whole season. Right... two months later when Minnesota was burying their final chance to become bowl eligible, their wide receivers were still tired from running up and down against the field on the Irish. This was the ultimate bias meets bias, as the absurd hype machine that is Notre Dame met up with a Pac 10 team who many people had only seen in their loss to USC... and would see replays of over and over again thanks to the USC hype machine. Because Notre Dame led Oregon by .8 overall in the Coaches poll and trailed by just .24 in the Harris, the Irish had a slim edge before the computer polls were calculated. The computers gave Oregon a massive 5.5 spot advantage, propelling them to the equivalent of a 1.5 spot lead over the Irish in the composite BCs standings. They were the clear choice for #2 at large. But Notre Dame wouldn't be Notre Dame if they didn't have special clauses designed to fill their coffers, and indeed there was a rule allowing Notre Dame to be selected ahead of teams who ranked higher than them in the BCS standings assuming they were ranked in the top 6. I'll rarely be so definitive about a selection being wrong, but Oregon got absolutely shafted in 2005. Worst BCs selection gaffe ever, and Ohio State proved that by running up and down the field (which apparently didn't tire out their receivers for the 2006 season) against Notre Dame and winning comfortably despite having a turnover inside their own 10 and missing two FGs. Not that Oregon made much of a case for themselves by losing to Adrian Peterson (yes, 11 on 1) in the Holiday Bowl, but even on that afternoon they looked like they would have provided more of a challenge for Ohio State.

It's worth noting that, while there was absolutely no championship game controversy this season, once again the voters picked USC from the Pac 10 while the computers picked Texas from the Big 12. That made five times this trend has held since 2001, and five out of a possible six since 1998. Though Texas won the game, the close comeback win says that in reality it was a pretty even matchup.

2006 BCS Championship Game
#1: Ohio State, Big Ten champ and unbeaten
#2: two one-loss teams
* Florida, #2 in both polls with a loss to Auburn
* Michigan, #3 in both polls with a loss to Ohio State

It is interesting that we almost saw this one coming. Starting with the preseason, people were looking at Florida's schedule and saying 'Good grief that's murderer's row! If there's a bunch of one-loss teams vying for a spot and they're one of them, Florida should get it before anyone else.' Ohio State was a runaway preseason #1. Following their annihilation of Notre Dame, Michigan quickly rose into the top five and by midseason people were wondering if the NC game would basically be played on Nov 18.

Michigan's loss to Ohio State dropped them to #3 in both polls, trailing USC by the slimmest of margins but still ahead of them in the BCS due to computer rankings. However USC was upset by UCLA and Florida defeated 10-win Arkansas by 10 points in the SECCG. What followed was a huge controversy.

Big Ten fans wanted to see a rematch between their conference's teams. With USC having lost earlier in the day, CBS openly campaigned for Florida - going through a game by game comparison of who each team had beaten. Following the game, Urban Meyer did the same and SEC commissioner Mike Slive backed him up, saying that if Florida was left out it was proof that the sport needed a playoff. Jim Tressel, who prior to their game in November had said that if Ohio State lost to Michigan his team wouldn't deserve a second chance, abstained from voting in the final poll. Between the conference championship win, campaigning, debate points made, and perhaps a desire to see a true national champion, both polls jumped Florida over Michigan. The computers awarded a tie - with Michigan gaining an advantage over Florida scheduling an additional game against a I-AA team and Florida gaining an advantage as margin of victory was no longer being used.

So 2006 joined 1998 and 2000 as seasons in which there were a few teams in contention for the #2 spot and it was awarded to a team from the state of Florida. Unlike the Seminoles, the Gators proved that they did in fact belong in that game, but also for the first time a major media station openly campaigned to voters for one team's inclusion over the other. It's impossible to say whether, without CBS's campaigning, Florida would have still jumped Michigan... but in fairness to the Gators, ESPN/ABC had all but openly campaigned for a Michigan/Ohio State rematch for several weeks before their game in November.


In summary?

I think there's a moderate regional bias in voting which places East Coast teams over West Coast team over "Flyover" teams. In effect, this would give the ACC and Big East teams the biggest advantage as their conferences are located entirely on the East Coast, as well as some teams from the Big Ten and eastern half of the SEC. The Pac 10 champion faces an uphill battle for respect in the polls and the Big 12 champion a still steeper uphill battle. This is even evident among midmajors, as schools like Marshall and Miami were able to get a pretty good amount of publicity for their strong runs on just a season's notice, Fresno State some but not quite as much, and Boise State and TCU had to prove themselves for a few seasons before being taken seriously.

Proximity to a major media center plays another role in creating bias. New York and California schools would have the edge here... although NY isn't really a football state. However, East Coast media tends to focus pretty heavily on the Florida schools when they're good - FSU, Miami, and UF. Consider that, despite being involved in numerous controversial seasons, the only time a Florida school has been left out of the title game was Miami in favor of another Florida school - FSU. While California schools have suffered three exclusions from either the title game (UCLA 98, USC 03) or the at large bid (Cal 04), in two of those instances they were the voters' top choice for that bid and in the other UCLA was left out in favor of a Florida school.

The highlight reel effect, in the absence of nationwide broadcasting of the actual games, simultaneously portrays the team in focus in a positive light and their opponents in a negative light. Specific to the Big 12 vs Pac 10 selection controversies, this can be seen in both the poll ranking and poll-based SOS trends. In general, the Big 12 ca 1998-03 (ie, up until the North's three season collapse) probably benefited in terms of total number of teams able to crack the top 10 or top 15 by having these teams put under less of a microscope. At the same time, their top team probably had a tougher time getting into the top 2 of the human polls for the same reason.

Past performance from the previous season/seasons is of course a huge factor. This affects both preseason ranking and how seriously the voters are willing to consider a team even late in the season vs how much they consider a good record to be a bit of a fluke. You could cite 98 Wisconsin, 00 Washington, 01 Illinois, 01 Maryland, 03 LSU and 04 Auburn as examples of this. (and note the difference in LSU's treatment in the polls four years later, after several successful seasons and moving back into the national spotlight) This season you could say that Kansas, Missouri, and Arizona State have suffered a similar fate, although the extreme rash of upsets has given each of these schools the opportunity to control their own destiny at some point during the season, and Missouri may have even gotten a second chance at that.

the seven contenders

The tenth BCS season is almost over, and for the seventh time there won't be a clear #1 and #2. As the debate begins to take shape, seven teams have emerged with anything more than a snowball's chance in hell of making in into the National Championship game. Here are their resumes and my early thoughts on their chances of actually playing in the title game. Additionally I have noted their starting quarterback, offensive ranking, and defensive ranking (recall that all 9 BCS champions have had a Jr/Sr QB and a top 10 scoring defense).

1. LSU
Key Wins:
* Va Tech (BCS #10) 48-7
* Florida (BCS #12) 28-24
* Auburn (BCS #28) 30-24
Losses:
* at Kentucky (BCS #23) 43-37 3OT
Big Games Remaining:
* SEC Championship (prob - BCS #9 Georgia)

QB: Matt Flynn (Sr, 125.4 rtg)
Off: #11 scoring
Def: #9 scoring

Outlook: While Kansas could theoretically pass LSU by running the table, Oregon is both too far behind in the BCS points table and plays a weaker schedule from here out (due to SECCG), so the Tigers have all but assured themselves of at least the #2 spot in all polls assuming they win out. LSU controls their own destiny more than any other team right now. However, the SEC East winner will be a huge challenge and, though the team is not very strong, the McFadden-Jones duo could pull an upset in the regular season finale.
LSU has numerous victories over ranked teams, but all have either come at home or possibly in a neutral setting (SECCG?). However, their only loss was on the road in 3 OT's to a ranked team.

2. Oregon
Key Wins:
* @ Michigan (BCS #21) 39-7
* USC (BCS #11) 24-17
* Arizona State (BCS #8) 31-20
Losses:
* Cal (BCS #31) 31-24
Big Games Remaining:
* none

QB: Dennis Dixon (Sr, 163.1 rtg)
Off: #5 scoring
Def: #31 scoring

Outlook: First thing's first. While nobody on Oregon's schedule ranks among the BCS top 32, both Arizona and UCLA are road games and both Arizona and Oregon State defeated the Ducks last season. 2007 has had little in common with 2006 for UO, and they will have to focus on their own games and not what's going on in the BCS to make sure things stay that way.
Then would come the next part. Twice in the past, Oregon has finished a season with just one loss and wound up shafted by the BCS. In 2001, a one-loss Nebraska team was controversially chosen to play against unanimous #1 Miami over Oregon despite the Ducks #2 ranking in the polls versus the Huskers' #4. Computer polls and additional numerical modifiers to the more complicated BCS formula of the day, specifically Strength of Schedule, hurt the Ducks. In 2005, it was the human polls that had Oregon at #6 getting edged out by two teams with two losses apiece, #4 Ohio State and #5 Notre Dame, for an at-large berth. Never fear, the computers had Oregon at #5 while they had Notre Dame all the way down at #11 -- more than enough for the Ducks to move to second in line for an at-large berth. However, a special clause Notre Dame has with the BCS allowed the Irish to circumvent the actual rankings, and the Ducks were left out once again.
Unfortunately for the Ducks, this season could wind up the same way. If LSU and Kansas both win all the rest of their games, then it would be tough to justify leaving out the 13-0 Jayhawks, fresh off back-to-back victories over two teams currently in the BCS top 5, in favor of a pair of teams with a loss apiece. Historically, the only unbeaten BCS team ever left out of the championship game was Auburn in 2004, and that was in favor of two other unbeaten teams. With LSU comfortably in first place at the moment, that would mean Oregon once again getting the short end of the stick. Fortunately for the Ducks, the same jump is unlikely to happen should Oklahoma or Missouri win the Big 12. Ducks fans should don their Chase Daniel jerseys (come on, everybody loves Chase Daniel) in the regular season finale and probably pull for the Sooners in the B12CG regardless of which North team makes it... even though there is no love between OU and UO after their last two games.
Oregon has a statement road win at Michigan, and they'd really like the Wolverines to stay in the top 25 by beating Ohio State. However, their loss was at home and that team, Cal, is currently unranked in the polls.

3. Kansas
Key Wins:
* none
Losses:
* none
Big Games Remaining:
* Missouri (BCS #5)
* Big 12 Championship (prob - BCS #4 Oklahoma)

QB: Todd Reesing (So, 151.8 rtg)
Off: #2 scoring
Def: #2 scoring

Outlook: The Jayhawks are a very interesting team. Aside from Hawaii, they are the only unbeaten team in division I-A, and they are the only unbeaten from a BCS conference. Statistically they are dominant, having numerical rankings that rival those of 2001 Miami, considered by many to have been the greatest team of all-time. However, they have done all of this against a schedule that ranks #97 on Sagarin's computer (comparatively, Hawaii's ranks #157 - even some div I-AA teams have faced tougher schedules! - but I digress...). While LSU is 5-1 vs Sagarin's top 30, Kansas has yet to face a top 30 opponent with their best victory over #39 Oklahoma State. However, after what should be an easy win against pitiful Iowa State, Kansas will host Missouri and Heisman contender QB Chase Daniel before possibly playing in the Big 12 Championship game against an Oklahoma team they'd managed to avoid with their regular season schedule.
Unfortunately for them, Kansas has had the reputation of a doormat team throughout most of the BCS era, and their easy first eleven games have left them with lots of ground to make up in the polls. If LSU and Oregon win out, it will be difficult for Kansas to move into the #2 spot in either the Coaches or Harris poll, though I wouldn't rule out the possibility. However, that may not matter. If Kansas and LSU both win out, the computer polls portion of the formula will likely put Kansas #1 and LSU #2. Kansas would be a full two spots ahead of Oregon in the computer polls and likely not a full spot behind them in each of the human polls. If the top three win out, I give Kansas slightly better than a 50% chance of being in the BCS title game.

4. Oklahoma
Key Wins:
* Texas (BCS #13) 28-21
* Missouri (BCs #5) 41-31
Losses:
* at Colorado 27-24
Big Games Remaining:
* Big 12 Championship (Kansas/Missouri winner will be BCS #3 or 4)

QB: Sam Bradford (Fr, 180.4 rtg)
Off: #3 scoring
Def: #11 scoring

Outlook: The Sooners began the season making strong statements that they should be ranked #1, blowing out team after team including a 51-13 win over Miami which had looked more impressive then than it does now. One bad half cost them a game at Colorado, but their freshman QB responded in back to back wins over Texas and Missouri. OU finishes the season at Texas Tech and vs rival Oklahoma State - two teams with explosive offenses but offering much resistance on the other side of the ball. UT scored a combined 97 points against those two schools and Oklahoma should be able to do the same for two victories.
The BCS spells trouble for the Sooners, though. Even if they win out, OU probably will not be ranked in the top two in either poll. For one, they're a Big 12 team which has historically not been viewed favorably by BCS voters (for those who just spat out their drink, I'll explain in another post this week). Second, OU is down around 7th in the computer poll average. It is unlikely that the conference championship can vault them above both LSU and Oregon in the computer average, which is what would need to happen if OU finishes 3rd in the polls.
The Kansas-Missouri game also hurts the Sooners. If Kansas wins then OU will get to face a 12-0 team the first week in December, but it will hurt their other major victory as Missouri will drop out of the top 10. If Missouri wins, then not only will OU never get to face Kansas, but should they beat Missouri then they will have dealt Mizzou a second loss, hurting the strength of their previous victory. I believe it will be slightly beneficial to OU if Kansas wins that game. Either way, though, they are hurting from the lack of a big-time nonconference victory (LSU doesn't have to worry about Va Tech and the SEC East champion giving each other a loss). And the fact that they lost to Colorado, rather than a team hovering in or around the top 25 like Kentucky and Cal, also hurts them. Because of this, Oklahoma will have the most difficult time out of all the Big 12 contenders trying to jump Oregon. Realistically, they need LSU or Oregon to lose.
Oklahoma does not have an impressive road victory, but they have won one big game at a neutral site (vs Texas in Dallas) and will have the possibility to win another in the B12CG. Their only loss was on the road, but against an unranked opponent.

5. Missouri
Key Wins:
* at Illinois (BCS #19) 40-34
Losses:
* at Oklahoma (BCS #4) 41-31
Big Games Remaining
* at Kansas (BCS #3)
* Big 12 Championship Game (prob - BCS #4 Oklahoma)

QB: Chase Daniel (Jr, 154.7 rtg)
Off: #7 scoring
Def: #32 scoring

Outlook: Like Kansas, Missouri's name will hurt them more than anything else. And unlike Kansas, their record cannot end in that pretty "-0". However, if Illinois beats Northwestern, and Kansas and Oklahoma don't choke away some conference games which are very winnable for them, Mizzou may end up having played four games against BCS top 15 opposition... possibly three against BCS top 10s (OU twice). The computers are already giving them some love at #5, and their SOS (currently #52 on Sagarin's) would probably drop into the top 20, maybe top 10, should they make it to the B12CG. I can't see BCS voters putting this particular team in their top 2 should LSU and Oregon win out, but if they end the season beating Kansas and OU, Missouri might be able to be behind Oregon by less than a full spot (remember, fractional points awarded based on actual vote totals) and be in position to hope that they somehow vault up to #1 in the computer polls. Truthfully I don't know how likely that is because those comp polls can change significantly from week to week. It'll probably be possible to predict after the Kansas game, but maybe not before it. So I'll tentatively say that if Missouri wins out along with LSU and Oregon, Mizzou has barely under a 50% chance of making it an all-Tigers NC game.
Missouri has faced all of its tough competition on the road. They have a win at Illinois, travel to Kansas in two weeks, and could play the B12CG at a neutral site. Their loss came at Oklahoma, a tough place to visit. They are in the unique position of possibly being able to avenge their loss.

6. West Virginia
Key Wins:
* at Rutgers (BCS #32) 31-3
Losses:
* at South Florida 21-13
Big Games Remaining:
* at Cincinnati (BCS #22)
* Connecticut (BCS #24)

QB: Pat White (Jr, 157.7 rtg)
Off: #10 scoring
Def: #10 scoring

Outlook: Each of the five teams above WVU in the BCS standings would stay ahead of the Mountaineers if they win out, and Ohio State may be able to pass them with a road win over Michigan. That means that of the six other teams listed here, probably five need to lose. With OSU having just one game left, Oregon having an easy finish, and the Big 12 setup looking like a mini-tournament (meaning one team will probably win out because they can't both lose when they play each other), WVU has very slim odds of even having the opportunity to move into the top 2. On top of that, Cincinnati is a team who could really cause them problems and UConn has exceeded everybody's expectations with their play. At this point, WVU is playing for a conference championship and BCS berth, while hoping for an unlikely multiple-upset miracle to have a shot at playing in the NC game.

7. Ohio State
Key Wins:
* at Penn State (BCS #26) 37-17
* Wisconsin (BCS #25) 38-17
Losses:
* Illinois (BCS #19) 28-21
Big Games Remaining:
* at Michigan (BCS #21)

QB: Todd Boeckman (Jr, 154.3 rtg)
Off: #30 scoring
Def: #1 scoring

Outlook: While an easier schedule can be the ticket to an unbeaten season, Ohio State is now facing the tradeoff. Lose one game, by having an off week or an outstanding performance by the opponent or a combination of both, and you're getting no help from the BCS computers trying to climb back into the top 2. The fact that they lost just last week doesn't help their poll rankings, but regardless of that the computers have them below LSU, Oregon, Kansas, and Missouri... and Oklahoma would of course pass them if they win the B12CG. This means that the Buckeyes basically need five of the above six teams to lose, an unlikely scenerio. On the plus side, though, they only have to win one more game to put themselves into a position where they've done their part in trying to pull off a BCSCG selection miracle, and it is against LLLLLLLLLLoyd Carr's team. (at 5-1 against Cooper and 1-5 against Tressel, this game will also determine whether Carr has a winning or losing record against OSU, as this is likely to be his last season coaching Michigan)

week 11 recap

It's been a long and trying season. Not only in that we've had to endure weeks of the possibility that two teams from the weakest conferences would breeze their way into the title game, not only in that injuries possibly cost us a chance to see the matchup everyone's been arguing about for the last four years... but for me personally, I've done most of it while living with two n00bs who don't have cable. Rabbit ears, friends' houses, and sports bars... even streaming boradcasts online. Ah, the joys.

A new apartment and a quirky cable guy arrived just in time to catch a great Oregon-ASU game and watch BC fall to FSU. And yesterday, I finally got to enjoy something that had been a weekly tradition for the entire 2004 and 05 seasons - spending over 10 straight hours watching college football. Glorious. A recap:

After some Saturday morning office work, I arrived home to see Michigan somehow losing to Wisconsin 23-14 in a game where PJ Hill didn't play. In their defense, Chad Henne was knocked out early and Mike Hart never played. But this is a game they won 27-13 a season ago when the Badgers had Hill and Stocco. My question is - what has happened to Michigan's defense? Since surrendering 42 to Ohio State a year ago, the unit has lost its identity. 32 to USC, 34 to Appalachian State, 39 to Oregon. Sure the 37 points were inflated as the offense started turning the ball over deep by going for it on desperation 4th downs... but yesterday's loss marks the fourth conference game they've allowed more than 20 points; last season, Ohio State was the only Big Ten team to accomplish that feat. After this loss, even upsetting Ohio State probably can't save Lloyd Carr, and now we have to question how good Ron English really is.

Missouri still has a focus problem in the second half of games. After taking a convincing 24-9 lead over A&M at the half, Mizzou got outscored 10-0 in the 3rd to find themselves back in a game. This happened in their season opener against Illinois and the following week against Ole Miss. Kansas State and Kansas are too explosive on offense for Mizzou to lose focus - national title hopes are on the line here, as winning out coupled with an LSU or Oregon loss would probably put the Tigers at #2. This team may be talented enough to win the NC or at least a high profile BCS bowl, but they will need to play at their highest level over the course of 4 quarters to win the conference and for that matter a January bowl game.

After back-to-back weeks of 21-0 and 17-3 opening deficits, Texas did something I like to call "showing up at kickoff." Texas Tech was a team whose offense was supposed to give Texas's defense, with its porous secondary from a year ago, serious difficulties. The Longhorns scored 28 points on their opening four possessions, totaling 24 runs and an efficient 5/7 passing, physically asserting themselves in contrast to the Red Raiders' more finesse/timing-based offense. Eventually Harrell and Crabtree did torch the Texas defense (195 yds receiving?!) but this game was all about Jamaal Charles and the offensive line. Oh and McCoy didn't do a bad job keeping up with Harrell in terms of per play averages -- where has that been all season? In any case, Texas stands at 9-2 despite the fact that they could easily be 5-4. Barring a complete collapse by OU to lose the Big 12 South, the Horns have two games remaining - the rivalry game at Texas A&M and whatever bowl game they are invited to. A win in at least one of those games will keep the nation's longest streak of 10+ win seasons alive at 7.

Of course the game everyone is talking about is Ohio State's loss to Illinois. I watched this one in its entirety and I have to say, it was a very strange game. It started out in a frenzy - two plays of 65+ yards for a 7-7 tie. Then Ohio State had a long 9-play drive that led to a 14-7 score, and they never really seemed to give up control of the game until the very end. Illinois went three-and-out, and Ohio State was driving to take a double digit lead when Boeckman was intercepted. Illinois capitalized on the short field to retie the game at 14. The rest of the first half was a lot of failed drives and it seemed like the Illini were hanging on by a thread to keep it tied. Then suddenly they went for it on 4th down and got a huge gain, then sputtered their way into the end zone just before halftime. It still felt like Ohio State should be winning rather than losing, and perhaps that's why Tressel seemed so calm. The Illini's first drive of the second half went three and out, and Ohio State drove deep into the red zone. Boeckman was intercepted in the end zone on a crazy tipped pass to a linebacker which was followed up with a devastating 80-yard scoring drive. Ohio State responded with a long drive of their own, and Illinois got the ball back with just seconds remaining until the 4th qaurter, up 28-21. Of course by now most of the nation had tuned in to see the upset in the making. On their final two drives, Illinois accomplished basically nothing other than to run 6 and 8 minutes off the clock. They ran the same play over and over and it was always just enough to get a first down in three or four plays - converting 5/7 third downs and 1/1 fourth down. In between the two drives, Ohio State gained 18 yards on two plays before being intercepted yet again. Ohio State had just three drives in the entire second half - a 48 yard drive on a short field that ended in a red zone INT, a 76 yard scoring drive, and an 18 yard drive that ended with an INT on a 40-yard bomb on first down. It was a weird loss, but when a heavy favorite loses to an inferior team (not to insult Illinois, but at this point OSU is still a better team) that's usually the case. It took both QBs killing Ohio State to pull this one off.

Navy and North Texas each gained over 600 yards in a 74-62 victory for the Midshipmen. I didn't see a single snap in this game but holy crap...

With Ohio State losing, Oklahoma moved up to first in line for a BCS title bid should LSU or Oregon lose. The Sooners have played eight outstanding games of football this season and this weekend's game was among them - an utter annihiliation of Baylor that I'll summarize as follows: Baylor punt, OU touchdown, Baylor punt, OU touchdown... Okay, so they did give up well over 400 yards to the lowly Bears who are winless in conference play. It was also evident, as it has been in most games this season, that the Sooner offense could score at will. I don't know what happened in the second half of that Colorado game, bt if the Sooner offense had played anything like they have in pretty much any of the other 16 halves they've played (throw out the ISU game which was garbage), we'd be looking at an unbeaten team. In any case, the future at OU looks amazing with Bradford and Murray both being outstanding freshmen, but OU wants to win something big this season. The schedule has been a little lacking and if OU wants to jump Oregon, they'll probably need Kansas to be 11-0 with an impressive win over Missouri before getting blown out in the conference championship. Not entirely inconceivable.

Okay... Miami... seriously... THAT'S how you're going to play your final game in the Orange Bowl, one of the great college stadiums? Place this one clearly on Wright's shoulders - three interceptions, a fumble, and less than 100 yards through the air. I only watched bits and pieces of it, but i felt embarassed for the Canes every time I flipped over.

Tim Tebow played the part of Superman yet again, and you have to think that if Florida had any kind of decent defense they'd be 9-1 if not 10-0. The team has been held below 24 just once and below 30 just twice. With the way the conference is shaping out, UF may wind up third in the SEC East, and I pity whoever gets them in a bowl. On the other side of the field, what in the world happened to South Carolina. Phil Steele barely had time to say "I told you so" following their impressive win over a hot Kentucky team before they squeaked by North Carolina then dropped four straight conference games, giving up 99 points in the most recent two. McFadden and Tebow are both great players, but you can't let the opponent's star player go off on you like that in back-to-back games. They're already bowl eligible, but that Clemson game looks the complete opposite of what it did a month ago.

For LSU, it may have been against grossly inferior opposition, but the receivers making plays that they should make in their sleep is definitely a good sign. They'd be 10-0 and have a few less dramatic victories if that had been the case in October.

Okay, Kansas is a team I'd seen less than an hour of live game footage of during the season. I must say, this team is good! Their schedule has been complete garbage and it reaches a 7-week low this coming weekend, but that all changes for the final game (or two?) starting Nov 24. Back to this game, though, the offense was brilliantly creative, very precise, and had the ability to be physical which a lot of times the surprise teams don't. The defense perhaps could have done better against the run, but the corners were outstanding and really the whole secondary looked good. KU is actually for real. They could win a BCS game and if they don't make it there, they should do well in whatever other bowl they go to.

Boston College fans didn't deserve this. Yes, I've ranted all season about how OSU-BC would be proof that the BCS is all about getting the easiest schedule possible, but once FSU took care of that the Eagles did deserve a strong finish to their season. Ryan once again had multiple interceptions and the defense had no answers for a Terps offense who had barely totalled 40 points over their last three games. The ground game went nowhere and during MD's 21-point outburst they had to basically abandon it... amazingly Ryan had a little fourth quarter magic left after the VT game, but not quite enough. The Eagles are clearly on the downturn as they really should have lost their last three games, during which Ryan has thrown seven picks. Will Clemson beat them next, probably relegating them to a late December bowl? What about Miami? Okay, that was just a joke.

Even though the mighty have fallen, most Saturdays it's still good to be king. And some things haven't changed even this crazy season, like the fact that Cal just can't quite beat USC. Forsett turned in one of the best games of his career, but was matched nearly yard for yard by Chauncey Washington. Booty didn't do much but apparently just not throwing two interceptions like Longshore was enough. Following Stefan Johnson's eventual game-winning score, Longshore fumbled away possession at the start of one drive and had a costly interception as the Golden Bears had established a long drive into USC territory. This feeling has got to be getting old for Cal.

Random Thoughts from the Early Games

Some random thoughts from the first round of games this morning:

1. Tennessee looked fantastic for close to three quarters against Arkansas. Don’t be fooled by Darren McFadden’s 117 yards on the game; by and large the Vols have done a good job keeping him wrapped up, especially on the interior. As McFadden has looked to go outside, UT’s linebackers and safeties have done a great job of lateral pursuit to prevent McFadden from gaining the corner. Short of a few longish runs, he was contained.

2. Mississippi State has reached the phase when I’m officially concerned about them next year. I’ve said this season that they’ve done a great job especially given the situation they were in to start the season. Two road wins and a great win against Alabama to become bowl-eligible. They’re not going to get above 4^th in the SEC West this season, but they could challenge what’s looking like the LSU / ‘Bama / Auburn triumvirate in the West.

3. Michigan is playing with fire. I didn’t watch the game and I’ll give them some credit for being able to come back from a 23-7 deficit, but that’s really killing yourself, especially when you play in conference. They came back to 23-21, but Wisconsin just put the ball in the end zone thanks to Zach Brown to move the game to 30-21. Couple that with Michigan going four downs and a turnover on the Michigan 2. Wisconsin punched it in on their first play for the final margin.

4. I’m a little disappointed in Missouri after halftime in their game against Texas A&M. They did a great job before the half, moving the ball basically with impunity against an overmatched Aggie defense. The second half? That’s not the case at all, as A&M has not only controlled the clock, they’ve also had great field position. Not a good combination, and Mizzou really needs the win to stay competitive in the Big 12 North. The third quarter was ugly, but once A&M pulled to 31-26, Missouri marched the length of the field to score on a Chase Daniel-to-Jeremy Maclin pass. This was followed up by a safety and an onside free kick, so Missouri quickly bumped the margin up to 40-26 with the game coming to an end.

5. Georgia/Auburn just kicked off – and Auburn’s already thrown a pick. It’s remarkable to see how Knowshon Moreno has improved as the season’s worn on; the Vanderbilt game was his first huge game and he’s done well since. We’ll see how he does today; he’s only rushed for 17 yards. Another warning sign for Georgia haters: Stafford has hooked up with Massaquoi on a huge TD pass in each of the last two SEC games. Fun side note on the game: Georgia’s playing in their black uniforms (and have called for a blackout in the stadium), but Auburn’s playing in their all-white uniforms – and they’re 15-0 in the last 15 games they’ve played in wearing those outfits. That’s your Fashion Update for the week. Or the season.

6. I’ll be honest; I only watch the ACC because Lincoln Financial sends those games here. Still, I could’ve sworn North Carolina / NC State game was going to end up differently. I missed the first half almost entirely and whenever I’d look up at the game, either NC State was punting or North Carolina was driving. How’d the Wolfpack end up winning?

Also, don’t look now, but:

- UCLA is up 10-0 over Arizona St. early

- ND is losing – again. It’s 17-10 Air Force going into halftime.

- Kentucky and Vandy are tied going into the 3^rd quarter.

- Ohio State and Illinois are tied real early – at 14. Maybe the Illini have figured out a way to move the ball?

- Nebraska’s a bit pissed after last week; they’re currently beating the tar out of Kansas State, 73-24. Where was this team last week?

- Northwestern, Mississippi State, and Georgia Tech are now bowl-eligible.

Don't Blame the Conferece

Is it a bad thing that Darren McFadden goes off for 323 yards and a TD and isn’t even the biggest news in the SEC? Thanks to LSU having another classic game, LSU/Alabama stole the show. This makes something like 4 or 5 great games that LSU has had already – Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Alabama (you may want to include VA Tech in this list; that game was impressive but not great to me). Considering we’ll get to see LSU / Arkansas to close the season, that could be very exciting. I’m looking forward to it – and I’m now scared as hell of Arkansas again. Oh, I forgot to mention that Felix Jones went for 160+ and 4 TDs. Good god. And Tennessee’s “rush D” (I can’t actually call it a rush D) gets to be on the wrong side of highlights next week, too. Thank god the Arkansas D isn’t any good. Still, that Arkansas win basically eliminates South Carolina from both the rankings and SEC East title contention. Also eliminated from SEC East contention: Vandy, who finally lost their 4^th SEC game. I’m not counting anyone else out of it yet. Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia all rolled, and Kentucky was on a bye. In the SEC West, Arkansas’s still kind of in it with 3 losses, Auburn won, and LSU holds the trump card (obviously). Alabama’s loss against LSU kind of seals it for them. I think that Arkansas still gets Auburn and LSU, so if they can clean sweep and get a bit of luck, they may have a shot. MSU and Ole Miss have both been toasted, but as I said before, MSU is at least a decent team.

Getting out of the southeast, BC’s national title dreams are basically over, unfortunately. I kind of liked the Golden Eagles this season; the horseshoe that was up their ass last year wasn’t there anymore (it’s chosen to migrate to Virginia), and Matt Ryan’s performance last week was clutch. However, this week he did the Eagles in – his last INT was a telegraphed pass that the LB (whose name slips my mind at the moment) made a great play on. It was a good run for the Eagles, who still have a shot at 12-1 going into the bowl season, although at this point 11-2 looks more likely. It’s a shame for the ACC too, who finally had an opportunity to get some legitimacy.

Speaking of legitimacy, the Big East is quietly turning into the poor man’s SEC. Typical doormat UConn has two solid wins in the last two weeks (which may finally equalize their luck-filled wins over Louisville and Temple) and is leading the conference. West Virginia’s playing the Florida role, with an early loss but …hey, they’re back in the top 10 and rolling. Cincinnati, South Florida, and Rutgers are solid mid-to-upper level teams (think Auburn, Tennessee, and …let’s say Alabama as comparisons, although not in that order and not in style, either – just as a guideline). Louisville’s in the Arkansas role of high-powered offense and low-powered defense, and Pitt and Syracuse serve as the Vandy/Ole Miss combo. Is it even the #3 BCS league? Probably not – I think at this point it’s still SEC, Pac-10, Big 12 in the top three spots, but the Big East isn’t that far behind.

The Big 12 is quietly fielding three potential national title contenders. Think about it: Kansas is undefeated, but may have to go through Missouri and Oklahoma to get to the title game. Missouri will probably get a return game against the Sooners if they win out, and Oklahoma is sitting pretty in the BCS rankings (they’ll likely be 4^th in the latest poll). The worst-case scenario for the Big 12 is a trifecta hammer; Missouri beats Kansas and loses again to Oklahoma, who won’t get the SOS benefit against Missouri, having beaten them twice. (This is assuming none of those teams lose to anyone else.) The BCS best-case is probably Oklahoma winning over Kansas, but the best-case long term impact would be Kansas running the table. I’m not totally sold they’d get into the BCS championship game – they’re probably behind a 1-loss LSU and Oregon teams – but it’d fuel at worst a hell of a lot of controversy.

Speaking of Oregon, they had a statement win at home against Arizona St. Don’t be fooled by the 35-32 final score; they were in command the entire game. They’ve played the other big three teams in the Pac-10 and gone 2-1 (with a close loss against Cal); all they have to do at this point is hold serve and hope LSU loses. I’m not sure they jump LSU otherwise – unless, of course, they already have. USC rebounded nicely this week with a solid win over Oregon St., but their goose is cooked at this point. If they can beat ASU then they’re probably still going to be remembered as a solid team, but that’s also a big if given their current level of play. They have the talent, but the results are lacking.

Meanwhile, Ohio State keeps rolling. Apparently Wisconsin was a good team at one point, but they sure didn’t look like one yesterday. To some degree I still think they’re #1 by default, but there hasn’t been a team that’s winning more convincingly over the last couple of weeks. Of course, is that because of their level of play or the level of opposing talent? It’s a combination; I don’t think Wisconsin and Penn St. are anything other than 4-4 fodder in the SEC or Pac-10 this season, but Ohio State also hasn’t made it close. They’ve grown into their ranking, and they may actually get tested by a team that lost to a 1-AA team at home. Of course, Michigan is also looking worlds better than they did early in the season with clunkers against App State and Oregon, but …they could still win the Big 10. The hell?

As for my rankings – yes, I have them, although you wouldn’t know based on previous performance– they shake out something like this:

1 – Ohio State
2 – LSU
3 – Oregon
4 – Kansas
5 – Oklahoma
6 – West Virginia
7 – Missouri
8 – Boston College
9 – UConn
10 – Hawai’i
11 – Arizona State
12 – Texas
13 – Michigan
14 - Auburn
15 – Georgia
16 – Alabama
17 – USC
18 – Virginia
19 – Cal
20 – Boise State
21 – Florida
22 – Cincinnati
23 – Tennessee
24 – Clemson
25 – UCF

I’ll be honest here; I have a pretty solid top 6 and then anything beyond that is a mess. I suppose Missouri is 7^th, and I still think BC is Top 10 material. I have to rank UConn in the top 10 after their last two weeks and their solid conference profile. Arizona State and below … I have no idea. I don’t think Georgia is actually the 14^th best team in the country – but then again, I don’t think Michigan is the 13^th best either, and Texas still has a 20-point home loss on their profile coupled with a semi-gifted road win. However, I can’t think of anyone better than either of those two teams who isn’t ranked. I think I moved Alabama up after a loss, which rarely happens. I can’t respect Virginia yet – win a good game convincingly and we’ll talk. If I could, I’d rank ASU at 11 and then put 7 teams 17^th and the rest 25^th. Wait, I can do that.

1 – Ohio State
2 – LSU
3 – Oregon
4 – Kansas
5 – Oklahoma
6 – West Virginia
7 – Missouri
8 – Boston College
9 – UConn
10 – Hawai’i
11 – Arizona State
17 – Texas
17 – Michigan
17 - Auburn
17 – Georgia
17 – Alabama
17 – USC
17 – Virginia
25 – Cal
25 – Boise State
25 – Florida
25 – Cincinnati
25 – Tenneseee
25 – Clemson
25 – UCF

Much better. I don’t feel so bad about that Top 25. Looking back at it, I’m surprised at the number of Big 12 teams in the top ..er, 17, but of those teams, only two of them have played each other, and the ranking hierarchy is maintained between those teams. They only have 5 losses between them, so they should be ranked that high. However, it’s as much a function of talent as much as it is avoiding the other good teams – by and large – so far. The SEC teams seem ranked right; I can’t tell the difference between Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn most weeks and Florida and Tennessee are kind of similar, even though their head-to-head doesn’t bear that out. Tennessee controlling its own destiny is the equalizer there. USC is a cut below the big dogs in the Pac-10 with Cal being a notch below them at the moment.

Life and Games of a Mid-Major

Good news on my end – I finally got to see a football game in person yesterday. However, the game I saw … wasn’t that good. I don’t blame UCF or Marshall for that; my in-person football upbringing was on SEC football, so I was likely going to be disappointed. I knew that going in; when you’re used to 103,000 of your closest friends in a stadium at once, going to a 45,000 seat stadium is a bit of a culture shock. UCF did well in the attendance department, though, clocking in at just over 46,000 – their largest turnout in Brighthouse Networks Stadium so far.

The fans made noise throughout most of the game, although they did have a bit of Los Angeles Dodgers in them (arrive late, leave early). I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for the time being, though; they’re a relatively young fanbase, since they’ve only had a 1-A team for about 10 years now. It takes time to develop a solid and committed base – I’d say as of now about half the fans are there, which isn’t bad at all. The stadium will help them a lot; when you go from a stadium that was way off-campus and massively oversized for the average turnout to an on-campus, smaller stadium, it can’t do anything but help. They get bonus points for the relatively short concession lines, too. (I never checked out the bathrooms, but they’re probably decent – another plus. I also can’t answer the “do you pee in a trough?” question that’s prevalent in SEC stadiums. This concludes the TMI section of the post.)

The acoustics were mostly solid. I had two major issues with the sound, both of which were purist problems:

1 – The band was muffled most of the game. I don’t know if that was because of their location in the stadium (in the corner, lower section – there was only one level, so no need to distinguish there) or their makeup (hello drums and bass section, goodbye melody), but it put me in the awkward position of having to respond off of the other fans hearing the band. I’m sure they have trumpets, but I didn’t hear them.

2 – I mean this in the nicest possible way … but it’s a college game. Don’t play Zombie Nation – and for the love of g-d, do NOT play Soulja Boy. Have a sense of decency; give the band those damn charts if you really want to hear it. I know for a fact there’s a chart for Zombie Nation; I made fun of the UT Pep Band for playing it last year at basketball games (if you’re ripping off techno, don’t accentuate each note, guys; oh oh oh oh oh / oh oh oh oh oh / oh oh / oh oh doesn’t work nearly as well when you can clearly delineate between the notes. We’re drunk, you don’t need to make the notes obvious to us). Play that instead – you get bonus points from the crowd for pulling that off, too. I shouldn’t hear canned music over the PA system, I don’t think that’s too much to ask.

As for the gameplay … well, it’s C-USA. I wasn’t expecting a ton. Kevin Smith had one hell of a game, including a killer 87-yard TD run fueled by one cutback and just straight outrunning the entire Marshall D. Bonus points: the Marshall punter (Myagi, based on how badly everyone in my section was mocking him; I will say UCF’s heckling was above-average) killed the punt at the 1-foot line before Smith’s run. Kyle Israel isn’t going to be confused for Tim Tebow anytime soon, but he was effective enough. He was solid on the 8-10 yard routes, but his accuracy died over 15 yards; both of the long TD passes were catch-and-run events. On Marshall’s side, Cody Slate is a matchup nightmare. Still, the players by and large weren’t as fast as what I’m used to – especially on D – with Smith being about the only exception. Then again, they’re both non-BCS and – in Marshall’s case, at least – bad.

That being said, it was a good time; the tailgating was solid and the fans were fairly knowledgeable. They get bonus points for their relatively creative heckling, including numerous takeoffs on the “We Are” “Marshall” callbacks. Of course, the callbacks were the only time anyone even heard them during the game; Marshall fans spent most of the time wishing they were anyone else. More on yesterday coming up – but before I get there, thanks to Tina for mass-texting me score updates. I was the only person in the section who knew what was going on in other games, as the score updates in the stadium were really “score updates”.

That being said, there's a good setup at UCF. I like where they're going, although they're not there yet. They'll be there pretty soon, though.

Oh how the mighty fall again

The BCS picture is still murky yet the NC game seems pretty clear: Should OSU win out, they will face LSU in the title game if LSU does the same. Oregon doesn't stand a chance in the polls against LSU, and their loss against the Cal Bears looks worse and worse every week. Oklahoma, Kansas, or Missouri will lose one, and whomever wins out will have a hard time comparing their schedule to LSU (who has played 6 ranked opponents so far, and their only loss was to a strong Kentucky team in triple overtime).

So now, that there's a clearer picture for the NC game, let's see who else will make it to a BCS bowl...

From the Pac 10: The winner of the ASU/USC game will be the second Pac 10 BCS team. Oregon wins the conference and goes to the Rose bowl, but at least one more will make it to the BCS glory.

From the Big 10 - Ohio state is going to the NC game if they win against Michigan, and because of that loss there won't be another Big10 team in the BCS bowls.

Big East - West Virginia is quietly in the NC hunt, however their schedule isn't strong enough to overcome LSU, Oregon, or a Big12 team... but they will be in the BCS bowls.

Big 12 - Whomever wins out out of Oklahoma, Missouri, or Kansas has a great chance to make a bid for the NC game, Kansas more so since they would come out of the Big 12 unscathed. Two of these teams will make it to the BCS games, and Kansas is the only one that has a chance to unseat LSU if they go undefeated.

SEC - LSU will win out. If they don't I'll be surprised - they have gone through the meat of their schedule and with gut and grit have pulled through on 4 of the 5 most difficult games, the Florida game being an instant classic for Miles' gutsy calls. However, the only other SEC team that has much of a chance is Auburn to be the second team - mainly because the winner of the SEC east will have to face LSU in the championship game and is not likely to come out alive.

ACC - Boston College fell from the ranks of the undefeated, which now puts Virginia Tech in an interesting situation. It would have been one thing to lose to just LSU, but it's very likely that BC and Tech will meet in the championship game. Whomever wins will go BCS, and the other will not, and now there really is no chance that either of them will be in the NC hunt.

BCS Busters - Hawaii or Boise State - both of them have had pretty weak schedules, but their season ending meeting is going to be about last year's Cinderella and this year's hopeful. Brennan will need to put up a ton of points, considering both the defenses aren't nearly up to par. If Hawaii wins, they're in. If BSU wins, they have an outsiders chance. If the Smurf Turfers win it may mean another big team from the BCS conferences get in (likely a second ACC team if they're still up there in the ranks).

A Note on the SEC East (or, Nothing Is Sacred)

Who would’ve thought Tennessee would end up in control of their destiny in the SEC East – twice? After a rough start to the season, including a blowout 59-20 loss at Florida I had the (mis)fortune of watching with one of my Gator friends, I figured that the Vols were staring a solid 8-5 season in the face – at best. Recent games haven’t really changed that outlook for me; the defense is still giving up yardage like they’re in C-USA, but the offense is capably solid. And yet they’re in 1^st in the SEC East.

I suppose this is the part of the article where I offer up a somber thank-you to Georgia, with whom none of this would’ve been possible. If they hadn’t rolled over and played dead (dog joke – get it?) when they came to Neyland Stadium, Tennessee wouldn’t own the tiebreaker. Then again, if they didn’t put a beating on Florida we don’t get possession of 1^st place again. (There’s a hearty “screw you” somewhere in here to Alabama – hope LSU runs 60+ up on you guys! Enjoy the Saban era, until he leaves for Michigan in two years.) Still, don’t confuse the begrudging thanks I’m giving Georgia for any kind of praise. When they all rushed the field after their first touchdown against Florida – an activity I’m sure they hadn’t seen in a while; if you saw the Georgia/South Carolina game, the descriptive phrase used to describe the Bulldog offense was “Penn State on the road” – I was yelling all kinds of profanities at the TV. It was the first time in years I wanted to see the Gators roll up 75 on an opponent, like the old Spurrier Specials we used to see against Bumblefuck U back in the late ‘90’s. (Spurrier, bless his heart, has already declared he’s sending out a scrub to start a fight if Georgia pulls that trick on his team. Couldn’t he just get Florida International to put a hit on the team?) And yet, that didn’t happen.

Of course, none of this would’ve been possible if Kentucky ’07 wasn’t busy turning into Kentucky ’05 at home against Mississippi State. I actually kind of like that version of the Bulldogs; they’ve had issues for the last few seasons (thank you, Jackie Sherrill; could you kick the state a little more on your way out, please?), but this year they’re finally reaching “annoying” status. They have two road SEC wins now over currently ranked teams (Kentucky, Auburn – but the Auburn win was pre-revival, back when we thought they really blew), played South Carolina tough for three quarters, and gave the Vols fits at home. They’re doing well. Special thanks should also go out to Ole Miss, whose premature firing of David Cutcliffe led to their immediate tailspin. Speaking of which, what were they thinking firing Cutcliffe anyway? It’s not like Ole Miss is normally good, and of course a team’s going to struggle when you lose a NFL starting QB. Way to act quickly. Also, bringing in a poor man’s Marcus Vick to run your offense? Not smart. Of course Brent Schaeffer tore up the JUCO ranks – but it’s almost like nobody actually saw him play in the SEC two years prior, when he was the other guy in the Tennessee two-headed freshman QB attack of mediocrity.

So that just leaves South Carolina, who’s managed to beat Kentucky and Georgia (in an Ugly Game Special), but lose to Tennessee, LSU, and Vanderbilt. Quick quiz: which one of those teams is not like the other? You’d figure on a team returning 19 starters they’d be able to execute against a team who only has 1 ½ players on offense, and that guy is named Earl Bennett. Guess Phil Steele was wrong about them – sorry, Phil. In memory of South Carolina’s dashed title hopes, my next post will not contain paragraph breaks and be written in Arial-size-5 font.

Maybe I’m just bitter. But that’s because I had a gate changed pulled on me at the last minute and I might’ve been charged triple-charged for wifi access at the airport. I hate Atlanta’s airport. It makes me not want to come back down here for the SEC Championship game if the Vols happen to win out. The way this season’s gone, I fully expect a 3-3 Vandy to somehow win out and land all the tiebreakers to get in. They’ll play against an 11-1 LSU team and lose by 50 – but hey, it’ll be better than LSU playing Florida again and getting nailed on SOS. What the hell?

Hey, at least it’d be fun. You’d enjoy it – I know I would. Wouldn’t that be a perfect ending to this season?

In Contendium

I have a confession to make. I use the word “confession” in the loosest sense here; I didn’t kill anybody or anything like that. I just completely forgot to post any blog updates for the last, oh, 5 months or so. I blame work – well, work and laziness. Kudos go out to James and Russ for keeping this going in my absence.

More than anything else, I feel bad for not posting anything about what’s probably the most exciting college football season I’ve ever seen; I don’t know yet whether it’s actual team parity or a rash of senior leadership among teams that historically aren’t that good; my guess is it’s a combination of both. I wouldn’t have put Kentucky down as a top team going into the season, but considering they gave LSU their only loss, they would qualify – at worst – as “not bad.” Of course, then they turn around and lose to Vanderbilt; so much for that.

I could probably wax poetic on this season for an hour or so (actually, my guess would be 80 minutes; that’s how long the flight I’m on is; more on that in a bit). I’m just going to skip that entirely and cut to the chase: who do I see as actual contenders for a championship?

1: Ohio State. This would qualify as the obvious choice for a few reasons. First, there’s nobody else in the Big 10 who would even remotely qualify as a title contender. Secondly, OSU is putting together a pretty impressive defensive show, and they were – up until last week’s obliteration of Penn State – doing it relatively quietly. I’m not sure they’re the most talented team in the land, but they’re the best-scheduled team in the land at worst. They’ll catch a minor break this week with (what’s looking like) a Wisconsin team that’s short one P.J. Hill. If they get past that, they face what is realistically a winnable game at Michigan to close out the season, although the Wolverines have come on strong late.

2. Oregon. Why Oregon and not LSU? Oregon has two major advantages on LSU: remaining games and no conference championship game. Oregon’s toughest game will be a pivotal battle against Arizona State (who, on a side note, is the one team I can’t believe is doing this well. I swear they’re 8-0 going on 8-4, but I thought they were 7-0 going on 7-5 last week, too) before an easy walk down the last part of their schedule – sorry, Oregon State. Their D is great for a Pac-10 team – and good by almost any other measure. Two great games against Michigan and USC coupled with a good game against Cal actually have me ….kind of believing in the Ducks D. I never thought I’d type that. On offense, they have a legitimate Heisman contender in QB Dennis Dixon and what’ll be at worst a 2^nd-team Pac-10 RB Jonathan Stewart. The only fair point I can see against the Ducks is the injuries among their WR corps could leave them hurting against a team that can stop the run – and stop a dual-threat QB.

3: Boston College. I wonder if Tom O’Brien cries himself to sleep at night – although the Wolfpack haven’t done too badly for themselves (it’s a typical NC State hot/cold season), BC is currently undefeated and #2 in the BCS at this point in time. Why do I have them at #3 in my contender list? I don’t trust their schedule; they close with Florida St., Maryland, and Clemson (plus another game that I’m forgetting offhand; one of the downsides of writing on a plane is that you can’t look up schedules without internet access) and the Virginia Tech game was the toughest game they’d played to date. That is, unless you’re Lou Holtz – then the VT game was the 2^nd toughest, behind Notre Dame. Matt Ryan is at worst all that and a bag of chips, Andre Callender is a solid frontline RB, and the defense is getting the job done without LB Brian Toal, who’s been out all season. They’ve done well so far and I wouldn’t be too surprised if they win out, but I think they have a difficult road ahead of them. Unlike Ohio State, if they lose they’re toast. (OSU still has a shot of losing and making it to the title game, especially if it’s a close/late loss.)

4: LSU. This Tiger team scared the hell out of me early in the season, and if they were still playing like that I’d have them above everyone else even with a loss. However, I haven’t seen the ferocity on offense in the last few weeks and the defense has stopped taking it personally when teams score on them. Their lone loss so far was tough – 3-OT games on the road are a killer even if the team you face isn’t great, let alone a high-flying Kentucky team. LSU’s biggest obstacle is their schedule (sense a recurring theme?); the SEC has been tough top to bottom yet again this year. The only real weaklings are Ole Miss (nearly beat Florida), Arkansas (who has the most explosive 1-2 RB tandem in the country), and Vanderbilt (who just beat Kentucky). Good god. Anyway, LSU does get two of those teams down the stretch, but they also get to face Saban in devil’s clothing – plus whoever the hell comes out of that mess that’s the SEC East. I almost feel bad for Florida (but not really).

5. West Virginia. Yes, it’s the same West Virginia team we always see about this time of year – but who’s going to stop them? They played their tough loss already (South Florida), Louisville’s in a down year, Rutgers is a step below last year’s team, and Cincinnati’s self-destructing. Who’s to say they don’t go 11-1 and sneak in if everything above them gets blown to hell? They have the raw offensive power to succeed with Pat White, Steve Slaton, Owen Schmidt, and Noel Devine; if their defense can at least kind of hold, they should cruise.

6: Oklahoma. I keep on forgetting about the Sooners, yet they’re sitting on one loss with basically a free pass to 12-1 (counting the championship game). They have all the ingredients of a great team: fantastic D, strong passing game, capable ground game. I just don’t remember they exist – that early-season loss to Colorado is tough to erase, I suppose.

7: Arizona State. I’ll freely admit the low ranking here is bias, but I don’t see what makes this team as good as they are. Yes, they own a win over Cal – but they still have two tough games left in Oregon and USC. Their starting RB – Ryan Torain – is out for the season, and although their backup (whose name slips my mind at the moment; damn you, lack of internet) is definitely more than capable, I don’t see the dream lasting. They’re 8-0 going on 8-4 – well, they’re probably 8-0 going on 10-2, but still.

There’s a few also-rans floating around as well – Florida (killer schedule), Georgia (way to turn it on late, guys – but you may not even make the conference championship game), Hawai’i (play in the contiguous 48 and we may notice; I don’t like saying it, but it’s the truth), Kentucky/South Carolina (two teams on up years who slid downhill recently), South Florida (good against WVU; bad against UConn), USC (don’t lose to Stanford), Cal (good wins, tough losses), Mizzou (love the team, but you need 11-1 out of the Big 12 North right now), Michigan (….App State, duh), etc. I know I’m leaving teams out, but I’d rather not get on a Jamesian-length dissertation about why these teams aren’t going to compete for a title.

I’m looking forward to the next few weeks – they should be exciting. At the very least, they’ll clear up some of the mess at the top. Knowing the way this season’s gone, though, one of two things will probably happen:
1 – Everyone loses at least once
2 – Only Oregon and/or Arizona St. lose before the season’s over.

Fasten your seatbelts. (No, really. We’re landing now, and they just told us to do that.)