Okay, before I get to this, I decided to make yet another number-based system to sort teams. I like doing that sort of thing, evidently. Already have done one major chart of most of the MRs in baseball and a host of other rankings that aren't online, but trust me, I've done them. Anyway, the sliding scale is a base-10 system. Basically, there are 10 points that I associate with any series, and they're split up between both teams - normally not equally. The more points you get, the more likely you are to win the series. It's rough, but based on a 3-game series, these are the breakdowns I'm going off of:
team >= 8: 3-0
8 > team >= 5: 2-1
5 > team >= 2: 1-2
team <= 2: 0-3
So yes, any rankings of 5 really just mean "I have no idea." Change it how you want for 4-game series or 2-game series. Those should be a little more evident.
1. Cleveland @ Baltimore - Youth v. Youth
Cleveland has the young hitting, Baltimore has the young pitching. Based on the park factors, this would seem to favor Cleveland slightly. Factor in Cleveland's youth is more experienced and the advantage shifts even more to Cleveland. Baltimore's main advantage is Chris Ray.
CLEVELAND 6.5, BALTIMORE 3.5
2. Tampa Bay @ Boston - Ouch City
At least Tampa Bay shouldn't have to worry about their closer. Orvella's back, but it won't matter; Boston is so much better than Tampa Bay across the baord. The Devil Rays' main advantage - if you can call it that - is their young hitting. Maybe they can work Wily Mo Pena to exhaustion.
BOSTON 8, TAMPA BAY 2
3. St. Louis @ Pittsburgh - Divisional Slam
Zach Duke finally woke up for the Pirates; that gives them one pitcher and two hitters (Craig Wilson and Jason Bay). Duke won't pitch in the series. Ouch. As for the Cards, they're still rounding into shape, Pujols is pounding the ball, and everything else, while it might not be clicking perfectly, is certainly clicking well enough to where it won't matter anyway.
ST. LOUIS 7.5, PITTSBURGH 2.5
4. Washington @ Pittsburgh - First to 10 Runs Wins
Washington is finally getting non-horrible starts from its staff and is riding a 2-game winning streak as a result. The Phillies just won 1-0 in Coors. Don't expect this to continue. Of interest for the Nats is who pitches for Drese and how Livan does, but expect the runs to be free-flowing.
PHILADELPHIA 6, WASHINGTON 4
5. New York (AL) @ Toronto - Harbringer
Closer matchup than you'd think. The Yankees' lineup is loaded, while the Toronto lineup (to up and including Alex Rios) hasn't been that bad. This ends up a matchup of strength v. strength, and should be an exciting showdown, especially for so early in the year.
NEW YORK (AL) 5, TORONTO 5
6. Florida @ Cincinnati - Cue the Crickets!
Cincinnati's opened the season strong (surprising). Florida hasn't (not surprising). About the only major question in this series is when the Reds will fall back to earth. Of secondary importance is what the Fish will do in absence of Hermida; this ballpark and the Reds' staff is a perfect place to get some inflated numbers for his replacement.
CINCINNATI 6, FLORIDA 4
7. Atlanta @ New York Mets - Force Meets Wall
The Mets have opened up the season on an absolute tear. There's no reason it shouldn't continue; the Braves have struggled out of the gate, and now their right half of the infield is injured, too. However, they've had the Mets' number over the last few years; they get up for these games.
NEW YORK (NL) 6, ATLANTA 4
8. Kansas City @ Chicago (AL) - Forecast Calls for Pain
Simply put, a mismatch; Kansas City has no appreciable advantage - even potentially - over the White Sox. If the Sox fail to show up for a game, then they Royals might steal one, but even that's debatable.
CHICAGO (AL) 9, KANSAS CITY 1
9. Milwaukee @ Houston - Return / Resurgence?
The Brewers have started hitting, and Ben Sheets is back for them. All signs point to Milwaukee rolling all over Houston, but keep in mind two things: Houston hasn't been hitting poorly themselves, and Andy Pettitte has performed badly so far; that won't last. Even if it does, the Astros' bullpen is still great.
MILWAUKEE 6.5, HOUSTON 3.5
10. LA Angels @ Minnesota - When Pitching Collides?
Both teams have excellent pitching with a couple of early-season question marks. For the Angels, it's K-Rod and Escobar / Weaver. For the Twins, it's Radke and Santana (early struggles). Of course, watch Murphy's Pitching Corollary in effect; it's either 3 low-scoring games or 3 offensive explosions.
LA ANGELS 7, MINNESOTA 3
11. San Diego @ Colorado - Crapshoot
Two teams without obvious strengths. San Diego's slightly better pitching is nullified by Coors. Colorado's slightly better hitting is nullfied by their substandard pitching. In other words, it's business as usual in Denver.
COLORADO 5.5, SAN DIEGO 4.5
12. San Francisco @ Arizona - Dichotomies
We just saw this series in Colorado. The same basic ideas are in play here, except the Giants' pitching is better than the Padres', and Arizona doesn't have much going for them outside of Brandon Webb and Chad Tracy. This might be the winner of the All-Ugly award, especially if Bonds continues to suck.
SAN FRANCISCO 6, ARIZONA 4
13. Detroit @ Oakland - Momentum?
While Detroit has cooled off after a blistering start (Chris Shelton has not), Oakland is still riding strong behind their pitching. This is more a matchup of young pitching than you'd think between these two. Detroit has Bonderman, Robertson, Maroth, and Verlander; Oakland has Harden, Harden, and Blanton.
OAKLAND 6.5, DETROIT 3.5
14. Texas @ Seattle - When Flounders Collide
Both teams have struggled early on. They're both better than indicated, although the ceiling for Texas is higher than the one for Seattle. Watching King Felix to see how he responds to getting hammered in his last start.
TEXAS 6.5, SEATTLE 3.5
15. Chicago (NL) @ Los Angeles - Steamroller
The good new for Chicago? Their pitching isn't this bad. The badnews? The Dodgers are on a roll. Chicago's performance in the series hinges on Zambrano's performance - and he's due.
CHICAGO (NL) 5, LOS ANGELES 5
