If you're a longtime (read: one-year) reader of this site, then certainly you're aware of my Keys to a Championship. Basically, no team has ever won a BCS championship without a Jr or Sr QB and a defense ranked in the top 10 in scoring. The 2006 Florida Gators, with Sr QB Chris Leak and a defense that finished #6 in ppg allowed, continued that trend. In a Phil Steele moment, let me say that a) from the opening weekend of the 2006 season through the end, I consistently said that of all the teams in NCAA div I-A, Florida would be most deserving of a second-chance title berth due to their schedule and that b) I came up with that fact/prediction about the winner's experience at QB and defensive strength several months before Florida won the title. Clearly, I am totally awesome and if I had a blog you should definitely read it, which I do and you are.
Also worth noting is that of the teams who have lost in a BCS title game, four still fit this trend (00 FSU, 01 Neb, 03 OU, 06 OSU) and none had both an inexperienced QB and a defense outside the top ten. 04 OU in fact had a senior QB and a defense ranked in the top ten before USC hung 55 on them, and 99 Va Tech had the #1 scoring defense and a lowly freshman QB named Michael Vick.
How do our major title contenders look in terms of QB experience and defensive stalwartness?
Florida
QB: Tim Tebow (So)
Def: #6 in scoring last year, high chance of decline in 07
Louisville
QB: Brian Brohm (Sr)
Def: #19 in scoring last year, low chance of improvement in 07
LSU
QB: Matt Flynn (Sr)
Def: #4 in scoring last year, moderate chance of improvement in 07
Michigan
QB: Chad Henne (Sr)
Def: #8 scoring last year, high chance of decline in 07
Oklahoma
QB: Sam Bradford (Fr)
Def: #17 scoring last year, moderate chance of improvement in 07
Texas
QB: Colt McCoy (So)
Def: #24 scoring last year, high chance of improvement in 07
USC
QB: John David Booty (Sr)
Def: #12 in scoring last year, high chance of improvement in 07
Virginia Tech
QB: Sean Glennon (Jr)
Def: #1 in scoring last year, hm can't get any better than that
West Virginia
QB: Pat White (Jr)
Def: #48 in scoring last year, moderate chance of improvement in 07
Defensively, West Virginia should be eliminated off the bat. They would be happy with a top 20 scoring defense. Florida should miss on both counts, and Tebow has yet to show if he can be effective as something other than a changeup. Louisville and Texas would have their work cut out for them defensively, and Colt McCoy would also need to be a truly special sophomore, that much at least isn't a stretch. Oklahoma is very much a long-shot. Michigan could get to the title game, but against some of these offenses their defense might crumble depending on how they deal with so much lost talent.
It should come as no surprise to anyone that LSU and USC both appear to fit the mold the best. Virginia Tech isn't getting a lot of publicity, but they also do fit the mold of what it takes to win a championship... if they can win at LSU in September, then they'll definitely be for real.
