The good news about the Meineke Car Care Bowl is that it didn't always go by that name. Of course, the bad news is that it's the runaway winner of the Dumbest Bowl Name of the Year award, narrowly edging out the Champs Sports Bowl, which at least gets points because ...y'know, it's about sports. Still, with a name like the Meineke Car Care Bowl, you know the matchup is sure to not disappoint. The five-year history of this stellar bowl features three teams who have won its title – all from the ACC, with the Big East and Navy going a combined 0-5. It figures to be yet another even, exciting battle as Wake Forest squares off against Connecticut. The funny part is that it didn’t last year, with BC beating Navy 25-24.
Unfortunately, that's about where the dream ends. This matchup might be the most boring of the post-Christmas, pre-GMAC bowls - no mean feat, considering Maryland plays in that time period too. Still, UConn and Wake Forest basically have 1 1/2 running backs and 3/4 of a QB between them. Hope you like punts.
UConn (by Coach Pendley)
UConn’s strategy this year was threefold: 1) have an effective running game (165 ypg), 2) limit opponent’s scoring (18.6 ppg), and 3) beat OOC patsies (Duke, Maine, Temple, Akron) to make the team look stronger than it actually is. The good news is that all three strategies worked well – it would’ve been even better had Virginia not stolen the Luckiest Damn Team in the Land title. Of course, we won’t even get into the Temple and Louisville wins. Still, Connecticut at least lost to the two teams that were clearly better than them all year – Cincy and West Virginia – and neither game was close.
Offensively, this Huskies team is about as good as the combo of Andre Dixon and Donald Brown lets them be. Both sophomore RBs averaged over 60 yards a game on the ground and over 75 yards from scrimmage a game – including Dixon actually averaging over 100 yards a game. The good news is that both players performed better in the second half than they did in the first half. That serves as a good complement to QB Tyler Lorenzen, who loses 22 points off his QB rating in the second half. Either way, Lorenzen isn’t the threat in the air that the Dixon / Brown combo is on the ground.
Defensively, while UConn’s raw yardage stats aren’t great (158.5 ypg on the ground, 187.8.ypg through the air playing in the mostly run-happy Big East), it’s the periphials that are impressive. They only allow scores on 73.8% of their opponents’ red zone opportunities, have a +12 turnover margin, and give up only 47 penalty yards a game. This is especially nice because UConn doesn’t have a ton of big-play opportunities aside from the turnovers; their 6.50 tackles for loss a game isn’t spectacular. UConn’s game is predicated on playing smart and trying to shorten the game somehow. Unfortunately for the Huskies, their time of possession isn’t great and their punting game leaves something to be desired.
Keys to Victory:
1: Out-uglify the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest’s offense wouldn’t exactly be confused with a work of art – even a modern one. However, they do have a better rush defense than the Huskies do on the season, so it’ll be up to UConn to win the battle in the trenches. There’s no way that’ll actually look good, unless you particularly enjoy line play.
2: Win the battle of field position. Neither UConn nor Wake Forest punt particularly well, so even getting a couple of first downs before punting again will be a big deal as long as the Deacons are held to three-and-out. K Tony Claravino is 81% on the year, so they’re not in bad shape if the game comes down to kicks.
3: Shake it off. Last time that UConn played, they got embarrassed by West Virginia. Wake Forest – although it is two names – isn’t nearly as good as WVU. Just because their colors look kind of like WVU’s in a certain light is no reason to be afraid of this team that couldn’t even beat Nebraska.
Wake Forest (by Coach Lawrence)
Last year, a strong defense, timely offense, and a favorable schedule allowed Wake Forest to claim the ACC title without defeating anyone better than Boston College (finished 10-3 with bowl win). After an 0-2 start to 2007, that looked to be out the window, but the Demon Deacons rebounded nicely to finish the season 8-4, 5th in the conference. As expected, the offense has seen huge improvements since last season, to the effect of a +7 ppg change, but the team has seen about equally large drops on the defensive side due to the loss of six starters.
Most offensive improvements have come through QB Riley Skinner, who throws for nearly 200 ypg but unfortunately has seen his interception totals jump to 12 (and just 11 TDs), meaning he has a tendency to undo a lot of the extra yardage he's created. The running game is average (143 ypg) and is led by an average back (FR Josh Adams, 80 ypg). The defense is reasonably good against the run (108 ypg), and though they give up over 240 ypg passing, opposing QBs throw a lot of interceptions (20) and have a low overall efficiency (111). Junior CB Alphonso Smith is the primary ballhawk, picking off 8 passes on the season and returning 3 of those for TDs.
Statistics indicate that, for Wake Forest, success comes down to theirs and their opponent's passing games, as rushing totals for both offense and defense differ negligibly by outcome.
Keys to Victory:
1. Limit UConn to 200 yards passing. That's a little less than WF's average allowed in victory, while in defeat it's close to 300. The good news is that UConn only averages 193 ypg passing offense, so here you're only trying to hold them to their average.
2. More TDs than INTs through the air. Preferring the ground game, high passing totals are actually a bad sign for the Wake offense. This is fortunate, because UConn also has an excellent pass defense. However, in victory their TD:INT is 9:7, while in defeat it is 3:8. Stay away from risky passes and don't test your arm against UConn's defenders. Four players on their team have at least 3 picks on the season.
3. Gain 150 yards on the ground. Though the difference between their victory average and defeat average is just 40 ypg, the mark of 150 seems to indicate a game that is more to Wake's liking than UConn's. I don't know that I like Skinner over Lorenzen, so making it a ground battle neutralizes that potential disadvantage.
Thursday, December 27
The Meineke Car Care Bowl - Because Not Everyone Grows Up To Go To A Good Bowl Game
Wednesday, December 26
The Emerald Bowl - The First of Several Reminders that Two BCS Conference Teams Plus Kickoff after Christmas Does Not Mean Exciting Matchup
The Emerald Bowl was one of about 12 bowls that’s cropped up since the 21st century began (11, if you count the old Poinsettia Bowls), and like most of the other 11 bowls, it has a couple of key points you’ll need to keep in mind:
1 – the team quality generally sucks
2 – the game quality generally sucks
The Emerald Bowl also has another important quality: the weather usually sucks. It’s held in San Fran in December, so it’s going to be spotty anyway. As for this year…showers. The game’s also held in AT&T Park for reasons that pass understanding – they can’t even kick the Raiders out for a week? Or the 49ers? It’s not like either of those teams are good. Instead these guys are running out routes on the infield hoping like hell they don’t get tackled into the dugout.
Oh, and none of the games have been within 7 points. Are you ready for some football?
Maryland (by Coach Lawrence)
Beat Villanova, Florida International, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and NC State. Good enough for bowl qualification? HELL YES. Maryland has had a season of epic proportions, beating two overrated teams and four plain ol crappy teams. Sure, along the way they lost to Wake Forest and UNC... but it doesn’t matter. Fear the Turtle!
Maryland has a pair of senior runningbacks, Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball, who get 15-20 carries per game apiece and average about 135 yards per game combined. The passing game is terrible... barely over 200 ypg passing between Turner and Steffy combined... who also have combined for 7 TDs and 9 INTs on the season! The defense is just as mediocre, giving up 220 ypg passing and 136 ypg rushing. Joy.
Keys to Victory:
1. Stop the running game at all costs. That’s right, bring all 11 if you have to. Maryland gives up 67 ypg rushing in wins, 205 in losses. Oregon State rushes for 197 ypg in wins, 104 in losses. This is clearly a key area of the game for both teams... don’t lose it. If Moevao beats you with his arm, then so be it.
2. Closer to 4 than 3. Maryland averages almost exactly 3.5 ypc over the season. That breaks down to 3.94 in wins, 2.97 in losses. It’s amazing what a difference a yard makes... 2nd and 6 vs 2nd and 7, then 3rd and 2 vs 3rd and 4. With a pair of horribly unreliable QBs, Maryland must stay ahead of the chains.
3. Smart passing. Maryland has 5 TDs, 3 INTs in six wins... 2 TDs and 6 INTS in six losses. Without the turnovers, scoring opportunities will present themselves, and a long field for Oregon State will put the pressure on their equally mediocre-at-best QBs.
Oregon State (by Coach Pendley)
From losing to Cincinnati to going 6-1 in the final 7, the Beavers have seen both extremes. There’s no excuse to losing to UCLA by 26, but wins over Utah, Cal (before the tailspin), and Oregon are all solid. That Cal win deserves extra credit, as Cal was #2 at the time, which then spawned both Cal’s tailspin and the massive spate of upsets the #2 team in the country suffered – Oregon State was first! Of course, if they knew their reward for that was getting to play in nasty San Fran weather, you’d have to wonder if they would’ve lost to Oregon at the end of the year.
As for the Beaver offense, it’s basically …Yvenson Bernard. He’s the third-leading rusher in the Pac-10 and 6th in overall yardage, averaging just over 120 total yards a game on the season. Oregon State’s passing game is the pits, totaling just under 2,449 yards on the season (yeah, it looks like a lot, but divide by 12) with a 10/20 ratio. That’s what we term “pitiful” in these parts.
Fortunately for OSU, they have the 2nd-best rushing defense in the nation, allowing 75 yards a game. Their secondary has made up for most of the mistakes the passing game made, pulling down 20 picks on the season – if the offense averaged only an INT a game they’d have a +9 turnover margin on the season. While they don’t do well on special teams (worst in the country in punting coupled with nonexistent return games), they at least hold onto the ball.
Keys to Victory:
1: For the love of god, keep the ball on the ground. Or just throw a lot of screens and short, easy routes. Maryland will give the Beavers plenty of opportunity to get some picks – 26 attempts per game – but it’ll be key to not give turnovers up through the air. Of course, since Oregon State averages 34 attempts per game, maybe that’s part of the problem.
2: Exploit the ground game. In what’ll likely be an ugly environment and – let’s be honest – an ugly game, Oregon State will need to take every advantage they can. Bernard gives them a great edge and should be able to wear down a non-stellar Maryland D.
3: Don’t be a big team. Maryland’s gotten up for its games against big teams – witness the wins over Rutgers and BC – but laid eggs against North Carolina and Florida State. I’m not suggesting that Oregon State come out wearing Duke’s jerseys, but …okay, I am suggesting that.
The Texas Bowl - Yeeehaw!
It’s kind of fitting that the old Houston Bowl includes Houston this year. Of course, they’re calling it the Texas Bowl now, but it doesn’t always contain teams from Texas, even though you’d think a bowl from Texas would contain teams from …y’know, Texas. Or that a NCAA football game wouldn’t be on the NFL Network. Only one of these things is actually true this year.
So you want to know about the history of the Texas Bowl, huh? So do they. They also want consistent conference matchups, we’ve seen Big 12 v. C-USA, Big 12 v. Independent, Big 12. v. Western Athletic, Big 12 v. Mountain West, and Big 12 v. Big East. So while you’d think that the Big 12 would have a consistent tie-in, apparently this year is the loser’s bracket, since we have C-USA vs. Mountain West.
TCU (by Coach Pendley)
Yeah, so much for the BCS, guys. The perennial BCS whiners opened up the season with a thud, losing big to Texas in the 2nd game of the season. That was followed up by a series of close losses in conference play (@ Air Force by 3, @ Wyoming by 3, vs. Utah by 7, @ BYU by 5) leaving the Horned Frogs at 4-4 in-conference (7-5 overall). Of course, TCU fans will tell you they were incredibly close to 11-1, but …y’know .500 in-conference. Of course, it’s normally feast or famine with the Horned Frogs with either 10+ wins or hovering around .500 in every year from 2000 on.
The good news is that most of the playmakers on offense return. That’s critical for the TCU rushing attack; Joseph Turner (soph.) and Aaron Brown (jr.) averaged nearly 120 yards a game on the ground combined, and WR Ryan Christian and QB Andy Dalton chipping in about another 40 a game on average, TCU’s ground game is in good shape. The passing game is about what you’d expect from TCU, too: five different players averaged over 20 yards a game receiving, but none of them averaged over 40 yards. This isn’t a quick-strike offense, but they did average 26.6 ppg this year, so they can score.
Of course, TCU’s signature is their defense, and this year wasn’t any different, allowing only 19.2 ppg and only allowing 110 yards on the ground per game. It didn’t hurt that the pass defense picked off more passes than they allowed TDs. However, what didn’t help matters were the 27 turnovers on the season (including 16 fumbles) and the -6 margin. Fun fact: in every loss but BYU, TCU didn’t win the turnover battle. How’s that for a key to victory?
Keys to Victory:
1: Gash the middle. TCU runs the ball both first and second, and they should be effective against a team that allowed 145 yards on the ground (including 339 to Oregon) without facing Kevin Smith or the Forte Express. (Houston played Tulane early, but Forte hadn’t gotten rolling yet.) Houston allowed 3.91 yards per carry, so TCU – who normally only runs for 3.79 yards per carry – should be golden.
2: Win the turnover battle. I mean, duh. You saw the stats right up there.
3: Win your strength. Thanks to Anthony Aldrige, Houston has a stellar rushing attack. It’s up to TCU – who’s done a good job stopping the rushing teams that needed to be stopped. The odd corollary to that is the Horned Frogs haven’t stopped the bad rushing teams (170 to Stanford, 232 to Wyoming), but since Houston doesn’t fall into that category, who cares? The important thing is that if TCU can even hold the Cougars to 150 yards, their passing game will be hard-pressed to make up the difference.
4: Equalize the passing game. TCU won’t need a ton from the air – which is good since Houston’s D is good against the pass – but if they can equalize both the yardage and the scores through the air, then they’ll force the game to a point where they can win.
Houston (by Coach Lawrence)
I checked stats to see if much had changed in Houston over the last few years (no, I don’t follow the Cougars that closely.... and by “that” closely I mean “at all”). 47 rushes per game, 5.0 ypc average, 240 ypg rushing. Two backs – senior Anthony Aldridge and freshman Terrance Ganaway – have carried the ball over 100 times total and average over 5 yards per carry. Yeah that sounds about right. The Houston Cougars are a team who will pound you all game long with a brutal rushing attack. They won’t necessarily do much to stop you (365 ypg total defense), but they’ll wear you down and outscore you.
Considering who they are, Houston doesn’t have any bad losses (two of the four coming to Oregon and Alabama, and a third - ECU - just beat Boise State) but nothing that would qualify as an impressive win even for a mid-major. Awesome. OK, then, let’s go:
Keys to Victory:
1. Run, run, run... duh? That’s what Houston has been doing – and with a modicum of success – for at least five seasons. In eight wins, Houston has rushed for 260 ypg, while in four losses they have been held to 198 ypg. Yeah, even when they lose they still pound you... it’s what they do.
2. One interception max. It turns out, Houston averages 1.5 fumbles lost/game both in victory and defeat. I guess when you run almost 50 times a game, that happens. But the interception average jumps from 0.75 to 2.25 in wins vs in losses. Houston doesn’t need the pass to win, but Keenum and Joseph cannot cost the Cougars valuable possessions.
I’m gonna say that’s it. Run the ball and don’t throw interceptions. Woody Hayes would be proud.
The Champs Sports Bowl: Blatant Commercialism, but Not As Bad as the PapaJohn's.com Bowl
Would you believe that according to the College Football Data Warehouse, the Champs Sports Bowl is a major bowl? Yeah, I'm surprised too, but I guess "Bowls People Watch To Escape Their In-Laws" is kind of an unwieldy designation. This game is best known for complete and total blowouts - Texas Tech 55-15 over Clemson in '02, NC State 56-26 over Kansas in '03, and GT 55-16 over Syracuse in '04 (they made a bowl?). Now we have a sub-.500 conference team facing a BCS contender. Who's ready for a close game? (Wait a while. Not happening here.)
Boston College (by Coach Lawrence)
The Boston College Eagles took advantage of one of the NCAA’s easiest first halves of a schedule to jump out to a quick 7-0 start and #2 national ranking. Their first living, breathing opponent, Virginia Tech, led the Eagles 10-0 late in the 4th quarter before a prevent defense, onside kick recovery, and TD pass on 3rd and 20 allowed BC to escape with a road victory over an eventual top 10 team. However, the following week their luck ran out against Florida State, as Matt Ryan threw three interceptions including a late game pick six to assure the end of their run at a perfect season. A loss to Maryland that was close in final score only added insult, and another multiple-interception game, to injury for the Eagles. After escaping Clemson with a 4th quarter victory and sending the lifeless Miami Hurricanes to an early end to their season, BC faced Va Tech in a rematch game for the ACC title. It was yet another multiple-interception performance from Ryan which nearly send the Va Tech Hokies to the national championship game.
Boston College features a defense which has shaved 1.3 ypc off of their allowed rushing average compared to 2006, moving their per-game average allowed from 109 to 68 ypg. What this has done is forced opposing teams to get into aerial battles with Matt Ryan, BC’s quarterback who was a Heisman hopeful before a string of turnover-prone games led to a 2-3 finish for the team. Unfortunately, while the rushing defense is vastly improved, everything else is about the same as last year. Rushing ypg offense is almost identical, and pass defense is marginally worse. The passing ypg is up almost 90 ypg, but QB rating changed by only +2, yards/attempt +0.1, and the TD:INT has doubled on both sides (same ratio). The Eagles literally live and die by Matt Ryan’s arm. In their 7-0 start, Ryan had a rating probably around 140 and a 17:5 TD:INT ratio. In their final six games, that fell to something below 120 and 11:12... in the three losses, a similar rating with 5:7.
Keys To Victory:
1. There really is just one key to victory for BC. Don’t throw interceptions. In 10 wins, you’d see Matt Ryan throw 2.3 TD and 1.1 INT, on average. In 3 losses, you’d see 1.7 TD and 2.3 INT on average. Throwing a pick isn’t a big deal, but when you kill TWO drives and give up twice the risk of a defensive score (offhand, both FSU and VT scored defensive touchdowns in their wins over BC) that’s when you start asking for trouble.
2. Stuff MSU’s rushing game. This has been the standard MO for the BC defense. However, Sparty runs for just over 200 ypg, so it’ll be a battle of wills. Bring the extra defender if needed... I’ll take Matt Ryan over Brian Hoyer if it comes to that.
3. DON’T THROW INTERCEPTIONS. Really, Matt, stop doing that. It’s bad for you.
Michigan State (by Coach Pendley)
Fun fact: Michigan State went 4-3 against bowl-playing teams this season. Of course, if you subscribe to the tenet that teams at .500 are bowl-eligible, the Spartans went 4-5. Another fun fact: Michigan State is one of four Big 10 teams to finish the season at 3-5 in conference, and one of three teams to finish at 7-5, 3-5. What's all that mean? It's that they don't really do anything well, although they at least took care of business against bad teams. And that win against Notre Dame is going to look really good in a few years.
MSU sports a two-headed rushing attack: Javon Ringer gets all the yards (1346) and Jehou Caulcrick gets all the credit (21 TDs). Devin Thomas is the only Big 10 WR to average over 100 yards receiving a game. The defense isn't half-bad, but where the Spartans really fall into trouble is in special teams - subpar punting and a 65% FG rate mean they can't afford to turn this game into a field position battle.
Keys to Victory:
1: Run the @#&$ out of it. Ask Virginia Tech what happens when you give the ball to Matt Ryan late in a close game. Ringer and Caulcrick are an incredibly potent 1-2 rushing combo, and they're going to have to be effective against the BC front 7. Of course, BC's front seven have been beasts all year, but the last thing you want to do is let them pin their ears back and start pass rushing.
2: Throw out the scout team. There's no way in hell that Michigan State has faced any QB who's as good as Matt Ryan (with the possible, but not likely, exemption of Curtis Painter). As rough as it is to say, the Spartans aren't going to be able to do anything beyond marginalize Ryan at best, so don't go nuts trying to stop him.
3: Limit the picks. Thomas should get his yards, but the BC secondary are ball hawks. Don't make it flagrantly obvious the ball is going to Thomas when Brian Hoyer drops back to pass and that'll help. What'll also help is MSU's secondary picking off a couple of Ryan's passes.
The Holiday Bowl - Hey, It's pre-January, But It's Something Good!
The Holiday Bowl - aka "The Only Bowl Anyone Cares About Before December 31st Unless Their Team Is Involved" - has been one of the more exciting bowls in recent years. They've done a great job hosting the shunted Big 12 or Pac-10 team du jour, most of whom have been too sad at getting hosed that they don't bother to show up for the game. (I'm lookin' at you, 2004 Cal. BCS this.) From the bowl’s perspective it’s great – 05 Oregon, 04 Cal, 03 Texas, 01 Texas, and 00... Texas were all BCS-quality teams who were left out due to some combination of voter bias, upsets in the conference championship game giving the league’s 4th-best team an automatic berth while the #1 and #2 teams had to hope for one at-large, and secret clauses designed to give a cash-lined path to a January bowl to Notre Dame. This year, Arizona State gets the Pac-10 shaft. It could certainly be argued they had a good chance of a BCS bowl, but thanks to the Rose Bowl having its head too far up its ass (again.... and again. It's like we're not even surprised about this anymore), Illinois went BCS bowling instead of Arizona State. And yes, Cotton-bound Missouri is ranked higher than five BCS teams including both Rose Bowl teams, but we'll crucify that decision some more later. Plenty of time for that.
I mean, you'd think that the #2 Pac-10 team would play, y'know, around the 31st at worst, but apparently Tom Hansen has decided it's more fun to stick them in San Diego and hope it's a Saturday night game for high ratings. Someone should buy that guy a calendar or something.
But as we’ve mentioned, the Holiday Bowl has been a graveyard for whiny teams. Only because Mack Brown was forced at gunpoint to finally start Major Applewhite over Chris Simms in the 2001 Holiday Bowl did any of those five left-out teams even win one Holiday Bowl game. The 2007 Holiday Bowl features a pair of top 25 teams – not a good game to sleep on and wonder what might have been.
Arizona State (by Coach Pendley)
So why the hell is this ASU team deserving of a BCS bid, anyway? They took care of business. Sure, they lost to the two best teams they played (Oregon pre-Dixon ACL tear and USC), but they ...y'know, beat the teams they should've. Tell me which other teams did that this year - besides Hawaii, of course. ASU has two major weaknesses, one schedule-based and the other gameplay-based: they don't have any outstanding wins and they have a tendency to sleep through the first quarter. It's not the best situation and the two items are probably related. Maybe if they show up, they have a win over Oregon and we're not having this discussion this early. But no, they get to travel only a short distance and hope that Texas is having a game hangover.
Rudy Carpenter serves as the team leader, averaging just over 250 yards per game with a 23/8 ratio. He’s been consistent all year. Keegan Herring picked up the slack once Ryan Torain was lost for the season, averaging 82.8 yards per game (including getting completely stuffed by USC). The receiving corps is led by Chris McGaha, who’s pulling down a little over 4 catches a game for a smidge over 60 yards, but has yet to see the end zone. (Michael Jones is the leading TD receiver on the team with 8.)
On defense, the Sun Devils sport a pretty solid D, allowing opposing rushers to 3.47 yards a carry (and just over 100 yards a game) and have an even TD/INT ratio (17 each). Not surprisingly, they have a +7 turnover margin on the year and are the resident ball hogs of the Pac-10, clocking in at nearly 34 minutes a game – 2nd in the nation behind Wisconsin.
Keys to Victory:
1: Exploit the corner matchups. Texas has had issues giving up yardage through the air, and while McGaha and Jones aren’t world-beaters, they’re still good enough to get separation. It may fall to Rudy Burgess to force mismatches as the third receiver in order to really exploit Texas’ vulnerable secondary.
2: Average TOP. It’s so nice when a team already is averaging about 8 minutes more with the ball per game than their opponents; I don’t even need to tell them to do anything they’re not already doing. Just do what you already do better than almost everyone in the country and you’ll be okay.
3: Take advantage of McCoy. While Colt McCoy has done a great job this season given what’s happened to his WR corps, he’s only posted a 21/18 ratio, meaning the Arizona St. secondary should be able to get a couple of picks. Any team with a half-decent defense picked McCoy off at least once this year, and he had a couple of abysmal games against Kansas St. and Oklahoma St.
4: 100 yards on the ground. Texas’ rush D is pretty good, but the best rush defenses have shut down the ASU ground game so far this year (both USC and Oregon State obliterated them). Texas only allows about 100 yards a game, so even getting to their average would be a huge plus.
Texas (by Coach Lawrence)
In each of the last 6 seasons, the Texas Longhorns have finished with double-digit victories, and over that span have posted a 5-1 bowl record. Amazingly, five of those bowl games have been decided by 8 points or less – whether the opponent is a lowly 6-6 Iowa team or a 12-0 “best of all-time” USC team. Considering that the lone “comfortable” game was a 15 point victory over not-yet-good LSU in the 2003 Cotton Bowl, it’s likely that this game will be a close and entertaining contest. A victory would give Texas 10 wins for this season and improve that recent bowl record to 6-1.
Texas started the 2007 season with a series of lackluster victories over Arkansas State, TCU, and UCF. Following an embarrassing loss to Kansas State, Texas lost to Oklahoma despite a pretty admirable performance all-around. At 4-2, the season’s outlook appeared bleak, but the Horns caught fire and rolled to a 9-2 record including huge comebacks against Nebraska by turning a 17-3 3rd-quarter deficit into a 28-17 lead and more impressively a comeback from 35-14 against Oklahoma State by winning the 4th quarter 24-0. After a dominant offensive performance against Texas Tech, a 10-2 finish and remote BCS hopes seemed likely, until the Longhorns suffered a major upset at Texas A&M.
Defensively, Texas failed to improve upon a relatively poor 2006. The rush defense has held its own, yielding essentially 3 ypc and 100 ypg overall. However, the passing defense continues to allow 275 ypg and a QB rating just under 130. The big play continues to be the Horns’ Achilles heel, giving up 23 plays of 25+ yards on the season and allowing preposterous QB efficiency ratings in the 1st and 4th quarters as well as 3rd and medium situations.
Offensively, Texas has been devastated by injuries to the offensive line and wide receivers. Limas Sweed has missed half the season to injury, and Billy Pittman has missed a handful of games and been limited in several that he has played in. Jermichael Finley has stepped up to become one of the conference’s top tight three or four ends – and when your conference includes Missouri, that basically means he’s top 10 nationally as well. However, inconsistent WR rosters plus constant shuffling of the offensive line, along with plain ol bad decision-making have turned this into a huge dropoff year for Colt McCoy, whose QB rating fell from 161.1 to 140.3 and TD:INT fell from 29:7 to 21:18 since last season. On the positive side, the Longhorn ground attack returned to elite status, averaging 199.8 ypg as Jamaal Charles personally averages 121.5.
Keys to Victory:
1. Heavy pressure by the defense. ASU is a ball control team (yes, you read that correctly) who has controlled the clock and avoided the unpredictable shootouts of old by running 43 times per game, despite averaging just 3.37 ypc! Texas needs to push that already average number down closer to the 2.9-3.0 range, forcing ASU into obvious passing situations and forcing Rudy Carpenter to beat them with quick thinking when the ball is clearly in his hands.
2. Dedication to Jamaal Charles. Last season, the Longhorns successfully ran an offense led by a freshman QB without relying too heavily on their star senior and junior runningbacks. This year it’s Jamaal’s offense, and he’s got to get it going to take the pressure off of a struggling Colt McCoy. The spread package can stay, but they need more option runs and delayed handoffs to keep ASU’s pressure from bearing down on McCoy and to keep second and third downs as manageable situations.
3. Play big. Despite all their speed at the WR position, Texas seems more effective the greater a role TE Jermichael Finley (basically requires double-team to cover) and RBs Vontrell McGee and Chris Ogbonnaya play. Finley was huge in the Oklahoma game which, despite a loss, was one of UT’s better performances. Of course Charles and McGee carried for 23 and 24 rushes apiece in the offense’s best outing, against Texas Tech.
4. Play smart. Texas has been killed by giving up big plays on defense and throwing dumb interceptions on offense. Stay at home in the secondary. Don’t force a pass that isn’t there. UT is probably more talented than ASU and definitely has more experience in these kind of big games. Let that win the game for you; don’t give up that advantage by giving ASU easy points and momentum.
The Motor City Bowl, or "Seriously, We're Spending Christmas in Detroit?!?"
The Motor City Bowl has been good only in odd years, for some reason. Based on that, we’re in good shape. It also holds the distinction - especially in the last couple of years - as the best game played at Ford Field in December. Fittingly, the Lions realized that and quickly derailed their promising 6-2 start into a 7-8 mess. One of the teams playing in this bowl has more wins than that, and we know there's a direct corollary between wins and team quality. Just ask
The
Purdue (by Coach Lawrence)
Considered a preseason sleeper in the Little Ten, Purdue tore through a September schedule that included the likes of Directional Illinois, Directional Michigan, Minnesota, and, yes, Notre Dame. At the time they were one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country and ranked in the top 25 overall... until
Purdue runs a spread offense that gives inferior teams fits and gets laughed at by teams with a good defense, as evidenced by Painter’s 24 point drop in QB rating against teams with a winning record vs his rating teams with a losing record. Similar differential in their seven wins versus in their five losses. Statistically, he has his second-best game of the season in a 45-22 win over Central Michigan in week 3, with his best outing by far coming the week before against
Keys to victory:
1. Establish Sheets and
2. Painter only needs to play a smart game. The 360 yards and 3 TDs he threw against CMU the first time were overkill! What, you say? Purdue outrushed CMU 223-101. If they can duplicate that ground dominance, and I see no reason why they can’t, then Painter will merely need to manage the game and not turn the ball over. Big plays will come by themselves as CMU desperately throws everything they have at the line of scrimmage and leaves their terrible cornerbacks on islands against Bryant and Orton – and who knows who’ll be trying to stop TE Dustin Keller (61 rec, 6 TDs)?
3. Limit CMU’s rushing game. LeFevour is a great QB, but as we’ve already seen this season he cannot outscore Purdue’s offense by himself. That is to say, he is not, nor ever will be, Vince Young. CMU’s rushing totals in wins vs in losses differs by about 100 ypg! Bring heat, keep the linebackers at home – don’t let Hoskins and Sneed get involved, and keep LeFevour behind the line of scrimmage.
Central Michigan
Directional
I have a thing for QBs who are two-way threats; Dan LeFevour falls into that camp. He was the other QB to both pass and run for 20 TDs on the season (well, only 17 TDs - thanks James - but the point stands), but because he 1) plays in the MAC and 2) isn't a freak of nature means 3) nobody noticed. Still, to call the guy a matchup nightmare would be giving other matchup nightmares too much credit. He's simply a beast. The rest of the offense – mainly the poor man’s rushing combo of Justin Hoskins and Ontario Sneed – isn’t bad necessarily, but they’re not great.
The only problem is that the talent around him ...well, isn't excellent. It isn't really even good, otherwise the team would've probably won a couple of additional games. These guys finished the season 12th in the MAC (and 106th in the country) in scoring D, giving up an average of 36.2 ppg. They’re 71st in the country in rushing D (also allowing 28 TDs on the ground) and 111th (!) in pass defense, turning nearly every QB they play into Andre Woodson.
Keys to Victory:
1: 300/100. The only good news about
2: 32 minutes. Getting that much time with the ball will be a bit difficult for a team that has to stretch and sneeze to get to 28 minutes on average, but
3: Throw out the history. Yeah, Purdue kind of stomped on
Saturday, December 22
Hawaii / Hawai'i Bowl Preview
The Hawai'i Bowl marks the final pre-Christmas bowl and the only bowl where the promotions insist on saying the bowl's name with a terrible forced accent (Ha-wahh-ee Bowl). I don't care if it's "ethnic" or not, you sound like a jackass saying it that way. Unless you're actually Hawaiian and actually learned to speak the local dialect, which clearly is not the case here.
East Carolina (by Coach Pendley)
The good news is that ECU beat North Carolina for a half-decent out of conference victory. The bad news is that was their only OOC victory all season - including a loss to NC State. They also own a 52=38 win over UCF - and lost 26-7 to Marshall. So yeah, it was a good but not great season for East Carolina. That's what 7-5 (6-2) will get you - that and a date clear across the country with a team that's ...well, probably a lot better than you. At least it's warm.
Chris Johnson is a legitimate rushing threat; you'd have heard more about him had it not been for the Kevin Smith / Matt Forte combo in the same league. As it is, CJ finished 3rd in the conference in rushing TDs and 5th in overall yardage. That's good, because there aren't any receivers from ECU in the top 15 in-conference and QBs Rob Kass and Patrick Pinkney are in a platoon, which: yikes. At least they force turnovers (+14 on the season).
Keys to Victory:
1: Ball control. I know I key on this a lot, but for teams looking to pull an upset, the easiest way to ensure you'll be in a position to win late is to make sure their offense doesn't see the field. This is doubly important for a team like ECU, who sports a deficit on the season. They'll need at least 35 minutes and maybe a dagger drive (12+ plays), too.
2: Kill the turnover margin. ECU is averaging a little over +1 a game, but they're going to need +2 at least here. Boise State doesn't normally turn the ball over, so the Pirates will have to get them out of their comfort zone.
3: 30+ for CJ. Chris Johnson hasn't really been a workhorse back, but you know what? Suck it up. He's the best offensive player the Pirates have, and he's going to have 9 months to recover. At the least 30+ carries will keep the ball out of Boise State's hands, even if they're not too effective.
Boise State Broncos (by Coach Lawrence)
From 2002-04, Boise State only lost one game each season and went unbeaten at home, losing at Arkansas, at Oregon State, and in the 2004 Liberty Bowl against Louisville. (passed over by the BCS despite being 11-0!) In 2005, the Broncos perhaps bit off a bit more than they could chew by scheduling road trips to Georgia, Oregon State, and Hawaii for three of their first four games... losing the opening two and casting the shadow of doubt that they were just another midmajor over the program. Of course, that was before last season when they beat Oregon State and Hawaii en route to a BCS berth, in which they beat Oklahoma in one of the greatest games ever played.
With Zebransky graduating, Boise struggled just enough in the passing game early on to drop a game to Washington before winning their next nine. In the season finale, they lost a tough road game at Hawaii, who qualified for a Sugar Bowl selection.
Game Plan:
1. Pound away with Ian Johnson. The RB who scored on the famous Statue of Liberty 2-point conversion is now the centerpiece of a more physical offense.
2. Put the game away early. There's no need to let an inferior team hang around, and Boise's first vs second half stats are telling that they've been able to do this in most games this season.
Pound Johnson, then get some playaction deep bombs or WR reverses.
3. Tell the ECU players that there's buried treasure hidden along the shore. Come on it's a freaking tropical island and they're pirates. They can't concentrate on football under these more pressing circumstances!
4. Afterwards, go find the treasure with the pirates. After all, it's just a game... win or lose, they can all share the glory of island booty! Arrrrr!
Las Vegas Bowl: The Wannabe 2006 BCS Championship
The Las Vegas Bowl changed its name from the California Bowl in 1992, because enough people pointed out that Vegas is in fact not in California. Among other things, this bowl is famous for being the site of the first overtime game played in div I-A college football.
UCLA Bruins (by Coach Lawrence)
In recent years, UCLA is a team that has not finished the season well. In 2003 they followed a five game winning streak with a five game losing streak to finish 6-7. The following year they started 4-1 and finished 6-6. In 2005, UCLA looked like they'd have a shot at a BCS bowl with an 8-0 start, then dropped two of their final three regular season games including a loss to lowly Arizona.
Last season, UCLA started 4-1 again before losing four straight. However, their young talent gelled late and they won their final three regular season games, including a major upset of USC who otherwise might have played for the national title. In a hyped battle of future sleepers, UCLA was shockingly abused on defense to lose the Emerald Bowl to Florida State.
This season, UCLA got off to their familiar 4-1 and their equally familiar 5-5 records. In their last seven games, UCLA has lost to Notre Dame (before they became good - oh, you know they're back!), Washington State, and Arizona. They've only beaten a Cal team that nearly went from 5-0 to bowl ineligible and an Oregon team who have lost all three games without Dixon. In other words, not looking so hot.
Fortunately, UCLA has already played against BYU and won! Yes, this is a rematch bowl. In their first meeting, the Bruins were outgained by almost 200 yards but held a +3 turnover margin and returned an INT for a TD to win 27-17. One of the telling hidden statistics was that BYU was penalized 11 times for 84 yards while UCLA received just 4 for 30. The Bruins won by being the more disciplined team. During the regular season, in UCLA's six victories they had on average 2 fewer turnovers for 20 fewer yards per game while having a TO differential of +1.5 compared to -2 in their six losses.
Game Plan:
1. Maintain discipline advantage. Close to 0 penalties, max 1 turnover. They can't count on BYU being extremely generous again, but clearly they must come away from this with at least a small advantage.
2. Make third down manageable. UCLA won the first game despite converting just 2 of 12 third downs, which is a big reason why they needed the TOs and penalties to win.
3. Take away the run first. BYU is a team who averages 150 rushing ypg, but in their loss to UCLA they gained just 44. Max Hall isn't the QB whose shoulders I want to put the entire game on.
BYU (by Coach Pendley)
Finally, a good team from the Mountain West! For some reason when we split the bowls a few weeks ago I ended up with most of the Mountain West teams, and I didn't realize that until starting this preview. (We also treated the Big 10 teams like dead cats, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway.
Like return games and the chance for a team to get revenge? Then you'll like this Stormin' Mormon (...Cougar - but that first nickname is so much better, isn't it?) team; they have an excellent opportunity to avenge one of their two losses of the season - this one to UCLA, a 27-17 road loss that didn't look nearly as questionable then as it does now. Short of that, there's not a whole lot to be ashamed of. Tulsa's a good team that was throwing up 50+ on a lot of teams, nobody in their conference beat them, and a 20-7 win over Arizona at least partially redeems their out-of-conference slate.
Sophomore QB Max Hall is ....kind of a stud, really. 3,617 yards on the season and a 24/12 ratio will do that. RB Harvey Uriga is also the third-leading rusher in the MWC, averaging 101 yards a game and another 13 TDs on the ground. Rushing defense? Best in the conference. Their pass defense isn't great, but allowing over 200 yards in the air is as much a function of their pass defense as it is averaging about 35 passes a game. PK Mitch Payne isn't great - only 9/13 on the year - but who can blame him? He never gets a shot.
Keys to Victory:
1: QB Pressure. Even if UCLA QB Ben Olsen starts, he's not exactly what you'd term "sturdy". Knock Olsen out of the game and Ossar Rasshan (who?) starts taking snaps. Even if you don't knock Olsen out of the game, a few sharp hits will make him jittery. On the flipside, Max Hall has only been sacked 17 times on the season; keep him upright.
2: Torch 'em. UCLA's pass defense is about average (234 yards allowed/game), but this isn't the same pass offense as UCLA saw earlier this season. Get the ball in the air early and often and put the game out of reach early.
3: Ball control. UCLA isn't a great team, but it won't hurt matters if the Cougars keep the ball a ton. BYU has averaged 33 minutes per game; UCLA is only at 28 1/2 minutes. There's no reason the Cougars can't at least hit their average TOP.
The Just-In-Time for the New Mexico Bowl Preview
The New Mexico was one of at least fifteen new bowls introduced last season, further strengthening the argument that a playoff would render the regular season meaningless (under the current system, bowl eligible is synonymous with "doesn't suck balls" -- only anymore, even that isn't necessarily true). It's played in New Mexico, and the bowl has conveniently invited their state's own university to EVERY NM Bowl so far. Interesting... Oh and also, the game trophy is a piece of pottery. It's not even from Pottery Barn, it's this homemade crap stolen from the Zia Pueblo Indian Reservation. I can't believe those white devils continue to just take and take from this land's native people.
New Mexico (by Coach Pendley)
New Mexico didn't really have a season that most people would term impressive. The best opponent they've played all year was BYU (a 31-24 loss); the best team they've beat is probably Air Force (34-31 win at home). They are who you think they are: a middling mid-major team that didn't really do a whole lot in the conference or out of it. A 29-27 win at Arizona is nullified by a 10-6 loss at UTEP (although 10 points was the lowest output on the season for UTEP). In-conference, they lost to the good teams (Air Force excepted) and beat the bad ones. It's only fitting that they're playing another team whose main distinction on the season was not having one - it's not like Nevada did much on the season, either.
That being said, the Lobos do boast Rodney Ferguson, who's the 4th leading rusher in the Mountain West; he averages nearly 100 yards a game and just over a TD on the ground. In addition to that, they possess one of the most potent 1-2 WR combinations that Nevada will see all year in Marcus Smith (7.2 catches/game) and Travis Brown (5.4 catches/game). Unfortunately, the aforementoned three guys are the New Mexico offense. Defensively, they don't do anything too well; their pass D isn't terrible, but they do allow a 56% completion rate. The only thing other than the aforementioned three players is PK John Sullivan, who's 26/29 on the season. In short, there's not a lot they do well, but they don't do anything terribly either. This is the kind of team that gets a bowl game?
Keys to Victory:
1: Win the last 10 minutes. Obviously the Lobos need to at worst keep it close for the first 50 too, but Nevada has been in a lot of close games this season (7 games within 7 points, 4-3 record). The last thing the Lobos want to risk is getting caught in a situation where the team they're playing has more experience than they do - especially given New Mexico's 0-4 bowl record this century. It's intangible hell. They also don't want to be caught down by 3, not having the ball, and watching Luke Lippincott's number get called 14 straight times. Don't get caught there.
2: Attempt a score on at least 67% of the possessions. John Sullivan is an excellent weapon, and Nevada's defense - especially on the ground - isn't much to phone home about. There's no reason that the Lobos can't average 30-40 yards a possession and dink and dunk Nevada to death here. If they get the ball inside the 35, no punting is allowed.
3: Play action. Ferguson is a legitimate weapon, the potency of which the Wolfpack haven't seen since practice - or against Idaho on gameday. Nevada's secondary isn't a threat to pick off a lot of passes, so don't be afraid to establish Ferguson early and start throwing it down the field.
Nevada Wolfpack (by Coach Lawrence)
In 2005, Nevada received their first bowl invitation in nine seasons - accepting a bid to play against UCF in the Hawaii Bowl - a thrilling multi-OT game which was won on a missed PAT! Last year, they again reached the bowl season to face off against the Miami Hurricanes in the MPC Computers Bowl, this time losing on an interception with only a few seconds remaining as they were nearing FG range down 21-20.
2007 has been a down year for the Wolfpack, with losses to Fresno State, Boise State, and Hawaii placing them clearly in the middle tier of the WAC. Despite a very potent and rounded offense, Nevada has been plagued by a suspect defense (they've lost games 69-67, 49-41, and 36-31) and inexperienced QBs - last year's starter, Nick Graziano, was replaced around midseason by redshirt Freshman Colin Kaepernick. The move worked out as Kaep has performed better statistically in every meaningful category, in part due to giving him on average five fewer attempts per game and relying more on the run. With CK in the Pistol, Nevada runs a modified read option and keeps the ball on the ground 61% of the time.
Defensively Nevada has been a team of two halves, performing well in the first half but coming out of the locker room (particularly the third quarter, where rushing is up 1.2 ypc and the opposing quarterbacks get their highest rating) not quite ready to resume play. This effect tends to compound itself, as Nevada performs better against both the pass and the run when they have the lead.
Gameplan:
1. Mix the run and the pass. New Mexico is solid against both, so their best bet is to keep the defense on its toes.
2. Have a cushion at the half. Sometimes you can't change who you are... a 10 point lead would be insurance against the halftime doldrums.
3. Don't be afraid if it gets ugly. Three of New Mexico's four losses have come when they've scored 10 points or less. Despite being involved in more low-scoring games, the Lobos aren't really that good at them.
Oops (or the Papa John's Bowl)
(Disclaimer: James' part of this was written before the game, and I didn't look at the score before writing up my half of it. Let's see if this works!)
I'm going to type this slowly for emphasis. Papa John's.com Bowl - are you serious? You can't just have a URL for your bowl name... it's just wrong. Okay, I'll make an exception if it's purepwnage.com but even then why not call it the purepwnage.com Uber Micro Bowl? Inexcusable, frankly. I don't know that The Birmingham Bowl (what it was last season) is that much better, but gimme a break here.
Cincinnati Bearcats (by Coach Lawrence)
After a 1-3 start in 2006, Cincinnati served notice that they would be a force to be reckoned with in 2007. First they came within 6 points of beating eventual Big East champ Louisville at Papa John's Stadium. Then they won big home games against South Florida and Rutgers. The Bearcats went on to win the International Bowl in Toronto, where fans wondered why the receivers didn't take a running start.
This season, Cincy opened with a 6-0 start including a blowout win over Oregon State and a tough road win at Rutgers. A loss to reeling Louisville wasn't as shocking as the difference in records indicated, but a loss the following week to Pittsburgh banished the Bearcats from the top 25. They climbed back in with victories over South Florida and UConn before being overmatched against West Virginia and overmatching Syracuse.
Cincinnati has a solid QB in Ben Mauk, but their real strength is controlling the game. The 'Cats outrush their opponents by almost 50 ypg and spread it out just about evenly between Mauk and three RBs. While their defensive totals rank just above average, their first quarter stats against both the pass and the run show a story of Cincinnati throwing the first punch and riding out the rest of the game... offensively as well with steadily declining passing attempts and generally declining rushing attempts. This is also a defense that only gets better as they get further ahead, allowing a lower QB rating and, until the margin gets huge, a lower rushing ypc as the lead increases.
Game Plan
1. Make the game about you. This is a clear mismatch which, as long as they play their game, Cincinnati should win.
2. Jump out early and keep your foot on their throat. It's worked all season.
3. Take away the run. USM is a top 25 rushing offense and a pretty average passing team. Stack the box early and build a lead - force the Golden Eagles to go to the air.
Southern Miss (by Coach Pendley)
If you're looking for the runaway winner of the "Dumbest Move Between the End of the Season and the Bowl" award, Southern Miss wins that award hands-down. Old head coach Jeff Bower (record: 119-82-1) was unceremoniously dumped after a 7-5 season. Bower had also brought USM to 10 bowls in 17 seasons, including 9 bowls over the last 11 years. His bowl record was 6-4 - but that was also 5-2 over the last seven. Why was he fired? Near as I can tell, USM fans and alumni got complacent - Southern Miss wasn't exactly good before Bower stepped on campus except for a stint back in the '50's. Remember when Ole Miss fired David Cutcliffe and went in the crapper a few years ago? Yeah, here we go again. This time, Oklahoma St. offensive coordinator Larry Fedora gets to underperform relative to the old guy. Bower gets to go somewhere where they'll actually like him.
Most seasons, RB Damion Fletcher would be making more noise for haivng a 1,400+ yard season with 15 rushing TDs. Unfotunately for him, two different RBs topped 2,000 yards in C-USA alone. Aside from him, there's not a lot on offense other than TE Shawn Nelson, who's an actual receiving threat (rare enough in its own right). Fortunately for the Golden Eagles, they actually do a good job against the both the run and the pass (3rd and 1st in C-USA respectively), although their periphials aren't anything to write home about.
Keys to Victory:
1: Do whatever it takes to get 7 in the box. Cincinnati's pass defense isn't anything to write home about, so force them to transition to pass defense. Only at that point will Fletcher be effective; Cincy's rush D was the best in the Big East.
2: Hold onto the ball. Cincinnati thrives on the turnover; don't let them. It doesn't really matter how you protect the ball - stickum isn't totally frowned on in these parts - but USM is going to need some serious ball possession in order to win. Think 33+ minutes.
3: Protect the pass. This is doubly tough because Cincinnati is a better passing game in the first half, but it needs to happen. Cincy sports the second-best passing offense in its conference, but it's something that needs to happen. Somehow.
Tuesday, December 18
New Orleans Bowl: Not the Sugar Bowl, the New Orleans Bowl
In 2006, the true winner of the New Orleans Bowl was in fact the city of New Orleans. Just one year beforehand, the bowl had to be moved to a different location because of the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina.
Memphis Tigers (by Coach Pendley)
The Memphis Tigers are bowl-eligible once again. After a completely forgettable 2006 season (let's just say their only win of note was against UTEP and leave it at that), Memphis is going to its fourth bowl game over the past five seasons. Say what? Believe it or not, Memphis has been kind of a staple among the lowest tier of bowls, and this'll be their second trip back to the New Orleans Bowl. (Other trips include the GMAC Bowl - before it got drunk and wandered into January - and the Motor City Bowl. Oh boy.)
So what do the Tigers do well? Score. Lord knows they don't play defense - they gave up 56 against both UCF and ECU and 52 to SMU (but they won that game). They have the best non-Playstation QB in Conference USA in Martin Hankins, who threw for nearly 300 yards a game and 22 TDs to boot. Oh, and in the games he missed Will Hudgens threw for close to 600 yards and an additional 5 TDs. They're also an offense where the leading WR (Duke Calhoun) doesn't have the most TDs (Carlos Singleton), making life difficult for opposing secondaries. Joseph Doss (65 ypg) and T.J. Pitts (40 ypg) head an effective rushing attack.
Shockingly, Memphis has the third best passing defense in C-USA this year - although they did allow a 20/12 ratio, which is less than stellar. Contributing to the "good" pass defense is a rushing defense that's scared of the run, allowing nearly 210 yards a game on the ground. They were saved from last in the conference only by UAB spending the season fielding no defensive line. They won't win the hidden yardage game (horrible punting game, a Memphis staple), but there's a good chance that they'll win the turnover game (+9 on the season). Of course, that may not be the case - FAU is averaging a ridiculous +19 on the season.
What will it take for C-USA to notch a win over the Sun Belt?
1: Take to the air. It's a blinding statement of the obvious, but this passing game is probably the fourth-best passing offense FAU has faced all year - behind Florida, Kentucky, and Oklahoma State. Calhoun is an excellent primary receiver, Singleton will scare the safeties back every time he runs a deep route, and Maurice Jones will be able to be effective from the slot. They haven't faced a three-deep like that in a while, so take advantage of it.
2: Ball control. Quite frankly, if the defense holds FAU to under 40 that should be chalked up as a win - FAU's offense is sneakily solid. As a result, both Doss and Pitts are going to need to be effective. Doss has proven he can have a huge game (175 yards against Rice, 168 against UAB; neither rush D is any good), so he may have to move the pile a few times. As for the passing game, slants, crosses, and interior curls will be the Tigers' friend. Just don't forget to look the corner off on the curls. FAU will likely stay in the air, as leading rusher is Charles Pierre at just over 70 yards per game.
3: Spy Rusty Smith. As he goes, so do the Owls. The LB corps should expect to see plenty of play action, especially in the red zone, where Smith has put up some ridiculous numbers (18 TDs against 0 INT, a 208.20 QB rating). Thankfully, he's not a rushing threat - that's Charles Pierre, but ....yeah, the Tigers aren't going to be able to stop him anyway, so don't bother.
Florida Atlantic Owls (by Coach Lawrence)
Florida Atlantic has only been playing division I-A football since 2004, going 9-3 their first year in the upper division before suffering consecutive losing seasons.
Though Florida Atlantic might look like they crawled into the bowls with a 7-6 record, the Owls faced five BCS conference opponents, four of which are bowl-eligible including Florida, South Florida, and Kentucky. Notably, their win over Minnesota with the school's first win over a BCS conference opponent since moving up to div I-A. Indeed, in games they had a realistic chance of winning, FAU went 7-1 only dropping a game to Louisiana-Monroe. This is a team that passes the ball 52% of the time, but the focus is clearly on QB Rusty Smith as only one other player averages over 10 touches per game (RB Charles Pierre, 13).
Game Plan
1. Exploit Memphis' suspect run defense. Aim more for 55% rushing plays. Which RB wants to answer the call?
2. Pass off the run. Statistically, FAU throws better on first down and in the second half - than on other downs or in the first half. Both point to the importance of having established the running game.
3. It's just another game. This is FAU's first bowl game as a program. Forget about that.
2007 Poinsettia Bowl
In only its second year of existence, the Poinsettia Bowl moved up to the coveted opening bowl slot, which it used last December to give us a 37-7 masterpiece of TCU destroying Northern Illinois. The year before, Navy destroyed Colorado State 51-30, leading people to question why the pee-wee team from Fort Collins was invited to a bowl in the first place. There, that is the entire history of the Poinsettia Bowl.
Navy Midshipmen (by Coach Lawrence)
For the Naval Academy, 2007 has been an historic season. The Midshipmen defeated Notre Dame for the first time in 44 years, winning a thrilling 46-44 triple overtime contest by stuffing ND's attempt to pound in a two-point conversion. A blowout victory in the regular season finale against Army gave Navy an unprecedented six straight wins in the series and also gave them the Commander in Chief's Trophy for the fifth straight season. (previously, Air Force had held it for six) Along the way there have been some setbacks - a home loss to div I-AA Delaware and another home loss to Ball State marking the low points - but at 8-4 the Midshipmen roll into the bowl season with at least 8 wins for the fifth straight season.
Navy is one of the last teams left using the triple option offense. Led by Jr QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, they are the nation's only offense to average over 300 ypg rushing, at 351. When running the ball, Navy averages over 6 ypc on both first and second down. Five runningbacks average between 35 and 65 yards per game in a system that keeps defenses on their toes. The offense is extremely effective throwing on first down, though in later situations they struggle more. Defensively, the Midshipmen do give up 4.25 ypc, and the passing defense is mediocre at best.
Game Plan:
1. 5 yards on first down. Dictate the pace on the remaining downs with manageable yardage situations.
2. Patience on defense. Though Utah may try to pound Darrell Mack against the smaller defense, Navy has to like their odds of winning a rushing battle more than winning a shootout with Brian Johnson. Keep at least one safety in coverage support and don't bite the playfakes.
3. Both hands on the ball. In four losses, Navy has 7 fumbles and an average TO margin of -2. In their eight wins, they have just 4 fumbles and an average TO margin slightly under +1. All those pitches and improvised exchanges increase the risk of error - Navy must be intelligent in their decision-making and execute well so as not to give up any breaks.
Utah Utes (by Coach Pendley)
For the Utes, it wasn't the best season. Of course, that's the case any time you lose to your rival - in this case, BYU - even if the game is close. Of course, most teams would kill for 8-4 (I'm looking at you, Florida International) and a seven-game winning streak in the middle of the season. However, that winning streak was over the Who's Who of Who Cares - the "highlight" being either a) beating a dead-in-the-water TCU team 27-20 at TCU or b) beating Louisville on the road 44-35 in a game that would've been huge three years ago. Heck, even their signature win - a 44-6 slaughter of UCLA (who was ranked 11th at the time) - was largely undone by UCLA playing their scout team the second half of the season. Geting shut out by UNLV (1-7, 2-10) can also be filed under "inexcusable".
So what do these guys actually do right? Play pass defense. They had a 7 TD / 16 INT ratio on the season (that's not a misprint), only allowing an average of 188.1 yards per game. (That's including Louisville's 467-yard game.) RB Darrell Mack is the second-leading rusher in the MWC, averaging just over 100 yards a geam. They didn't do too badly in the hidden yardage / turnover games, either, coming it at 43+ yards per punt and a +10 turnover margin on the season, respectively. Of course, they're also going up against a Navy team that hasn't been formally introduced to the forward pass. Good times.
What can Utah do to win this game?
1: Take to the air. QB Brian Johnson hasn't been great with only 162 yards per game (helped by an injury sustained in the opener), but the good news is that Navy doesn't know how to actually play defense. They've allowed 31 TDs to only 9 INTs on the season, which says that the secondary doesn't play for turnovers. If Johnson can keep the ball on target, Utah should be able to go ball-control against Navy's triple option.
2: Stick 8+ in the box. Let's be honest here; Navy's leading receiver, O.J. Washington, has 22.4 yards per game receiving. They're glorified blockers. Leave your corners on an island and start assigning your LBs and safeties to Kaipo, Eric Kettani, Adam Ballard, Shun White, and Jerod Bryant (not at the same time). Seven different guys from Navy average over 30 yards per game, so don't expect to continually shut them down - but put yourself in a position to make a play. Let's be honest: the scout team isn't going to figure out how to really play against Navy's triple option, but the least you can do is give the defensive playmakers an opportunity to do just that.
3: Win the time of possession game. Utah probably needs the ball for at least 33 minutes to pull out a win, and they have the tools to do that. Get the ball in Mack's hands and play the timing route game on the pass; force Navy into a couple of quick punts and take advantage of it. Utah should win the hidden yardage game too, but since Navy lives on their rushing offense getting in a situation where Utah has to take to the air while the Midshipmen are on the ground is not a winning scenario.
The Preview of the Previews
So if anyone was actually around here reading my 17,000 word dissertations on the early bowls last year - which lasted all the way through the New Mexico Bowl for reasons I don't get myself - we made a joint decision to not do all the bowl previews with one person. What's happening this time around is that James and I are splitting the teams up and doing gameplans for each one. This'll make sense once you see it; if you've ever seen the gameplans on espn.com, think like that only with actual competent people.
The goal is to provide previews for all the bowls, so stay tuned. The unofficial goal: write 15,000 words on the BCS Championship Game. (Since I drew Ohio State, this leaves me in the less-than-enviable position of finding 500 ways to say "keep the ball out of Boeckman's hands", but them's the breaks. Sorry, Russ.)
Monday, December 3
From Ohio State to Illinois... Explanations and Analysis of the BCS Selections
There's no point in rehashing what I've stated numerous times - in my fairly meaningless opinion, Oklahoma is better than both LSU and Ohio State. OU has a better quarterback than either team, a better WR corps than Ohio State with comparable running games and defense, and a better defense than LSU with more consistent production from the WRs. However Ohio State finished with a better record and, in the final week, lots of teams on LSU's schedule moved up in the rankings while Oklahoma hurt themselves by beating Missouri twice and Texas choked a game against TAMU.
Ohio State has lost only once and to a good team. They were an obvious choice for the BCS.
Now let's look at the LSU Tigers' season:
LSU was red-hot in the month of September, winning their first three games by a combined 137-7 including a 48-7 victory over eventual BCS #3 Virginia Tech. The Tigers' first real test came in the form of Tim Tebow's Florida Gators, who took a 17-7 halftime lead in Tiger Stadium but were thwarted by LSU's perfect 5-5 4th down preformance in a comeback win, with LSU scoring all 14 4th quarter points. The following week, LSU suffered injuries to WR Early Doucet and lost one of their cornerbacks late in the game. There were some questionable calls that went in Kentucky's favor both leading to and in the overtime periods, and the Wildcats beat LSU in 3 overtimes. Next week against Auburn, LSU was again on the ropes trailing Auburn 17-7 at halftime. Auburn took a 24-23 lead late in the game, and with just seconds remaining Les Miles called a fade to the end zone rather than trying a 39 yard field goal. The gamble paid off once again. Not out of the woods yet, LSU travelled to Alabama to take on their former coach Nick Saban. Again the Tigers trailed at halftime and at the end of the third, and again they had a big 4th quarter to win 41-34 by scoring the final 14 points. After climbing back up to #1 with a 10-1 record, LSU's final regular season game was against Arkansas. Darren McFadden showed why he is a Heisman contender, rushing for 200 yards and 3 TDs and throwing for another. Despite a strong performance by Flynn and the offense, the game was lost on a two-point conversion! However the Tigers would get a chance to redeem themselves, taking on Tennessee in the SEC Championship. As LSU lost Matt Flynn to injury, the defense rose to the occasion to limit Tennessee's offense, forcing two interceptions from Erik Ainge including a game-winning defensive score! Hester had a big game and LSU outgained Tennessee 212-94 on the ground. Though the road was rough, it was full of quality teams and this was LSU's justification for playing in the title game.
Also let's face it - Oklahoma had karma left over from the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Perhaps LSU's selection over a probably better Oklahoma team is the SEC's payback for Oklahoma's selection over a probably better Auburn team in 2004. In any case, OU's karma is cleansed by being left out. Imagine the reaction if they had been selected and then lost to Ohio State, their third title game loss in the last five seasons! (OU vs OSU would in fact feature teams combining to go 0-3 by an average of 39-16 in three of the last four title games, and their matchup would guarantee that one of these teams has lost in four of the last five)
So, while LSU wasn't my choice, they were a reasonable selection and most importantly they bring a resume of quality wins to the BCS Championship game which was in grave danger of being absent had West Virginia not somehow choked against Pitt. In fact, if we view the contenders as belonging in two groups:
0-1 Loss Teams with 0-1 Quality Wins
* Hawaii
* Kansas
* Ohio State
2 Loss Teams with 3+ Quality Wins
* LSU
* Oklahoma
* Virginia Tech
Then this title game manages to halfway appease each camp's view on which type of team is more impressive. In fact, it's pretty evident that Ohio State is the most deserving in that top group while in the second group LSU is at least more deserving that Virginia Tech (who they beat by 41), if not more deserving than Oklahoma as well.
Selection Grade: A-
There are teams who have done more than Ohio State and there are teams who don't have LSU's losses. That said, it was a bizarre season and there was no "right" choice for this game. If we think of it as another BCS bowl game rather than a conclusive #1 vs #2, it's a pretty awesome matchup.
Once Ohio State vs LSU was set, the other conference champions with tie-ins were placed:
* USC went to the Rose Bowl.
* Oklahoma went to the Fiesta Bowl.
* Virginia Tech went to the Orange Bowl.
* West Virginia automatically qualified for an unspecified BCS bowl by winning the Big East.
* Hawaii automatically qualified for an unspecified BCS bowl by winning the WAC and finishing in the top 12.
First the replacements for Ohio State and LSU are made.
Because Ohio State was the #1 team whose tie-in was with the Rose Bowl, the Rose Bowl selects the first at-large team. Anybody in the TOP 14 is available, meaning their choices were:
* Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, West Virginia, Hawaii, Arizona State, Florida, Illinois, and Boston College
* There may be a rule that teams who played during the regular season cannot play against each other a second time in the bowls, unless for the BCS Championship. In any case, and ASU-USC rematch obviously would be a poor choice.
* Let's also give the Rose Bowl the benefit of the doubt and assume that the Sugar Bowl lobbied really hard to be allowed to take Georgia, and that the folks who run the Rose Bowl are generous people.
USC vs West Virginia would be an amazing game that many thought would be for the national championship. USC vs Missouri would bring in a Heisman contender QB and a team who was one game away from finishing #1. USC vs Hawaii would feature the nation's only unbeaten team and #1 scoring offense in a battle for Western supremacy.
Illinois has two losses to unranked teams - Iowa and Michigan. Iowa won't even be playing in a bowl, and Michigan lost to a I-AA school. They're the product of Todd Boeckman repeatedly sabotaging OSU's offense in one game, which pretty much defined an otherwise decent but not January Bowl-worthy season. This was, by far, the most perplexing BCS decision.
Selection Grade: F
Surely this was a practical joke of some kind?
Next, the Sugar Bowl selects a replacement for LSU. Anybody in the TOP 14 not yet chosen is available, meaning their choices were:
* Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, West Virginia, Hawaii, Arizona State, Florida, and Boston College
The Sugar Bowl selected Georgia, an SEC team which is the bowl's traditional tie-in and the highest-ranked team still available.
Selection Grade: A+
The Sugar Bowl gets the hottest team in the nation and manages to keep their conference tradition.
Now the remaining at-large selections are made.
The Orange Bowl has first at-large pick. Anybody in the TOP 14 not yet chosen is available, except Florida since the SEC now has two BCS teams, meaning their choices were:
* Missouri, Kansas, West Virginia, Hawaii, Arizona State, and Boston College
West Virginia may have made the most sense given that they have something of a rivalry with Virginia Tech, they bring an explosive offense which will generate ratings, and despite their ranking they may be the best team remaining. I'm going to give the Orange Bowl a break here and *assume* that the Fiesta Bowl said "please don't make us have an all-Big 12 matchup" in which case the Orange Bowl was choosing between Missouri and Kansas.
Missouri beat Kansas. Missouri has Chase Daniel, who will probably get a Heisman invite. Missouri has Maclin, Rucker, Coffman, and Temple. Just Saturday, Missouri was playing for a spot in the BCS Championship game. Missouri was the highest-ranked team remaining.
The decision to take Kansas is baffling.
Grade: C-
The Orange Bowl gets a team who has faced just one ranked opponent all season and lost.
The Fiesta Bowl has the second at-large pick. As West Virginia and Hawaii both had automatic bids and there were only two total slots remaining, one of those teams had to be chosen.
West Virginia was a game away from playing for the BCS Championship, and might have won had Pat White not injured his thumb. (or had their kicker not missed PAT-length field goals) Whether WVU or Hawaii is actually the better team is overshadowed by the fact that WVU is a known commodity (won 2005 Sugar Bowl, faced much tougher schedule than Hawaii) so they are far less likely to flop. If Hawaii went up against Oklahoma, they could pull a Boise State or they could lose 56-3; it's impossible to say since their schedule is ranked #137 in Sagarin's - yeah, that low, really.
Grade: A
The Fiesta Bowl couldn't have hoped for a better team with the second-to-last pick.
The Sugar Bowl has the final at-large pick. Hawaii automatically qualified for the BCS and they were still not chosen. This pick was automatic.
No Grade Assigned.
The Matchups:
Rose Bowl
#7 USC vs #13 Illinois
After the 2003 season, the Rose Bowl gave USC a share of the national title. In 2004, the Rose Bowl was Vince Young's coming out party against Michigan, a performance which he surpassed to claim the 2005 title for Texas over USC. Last season, the Rose Bowl featured USC against a Michigan team who was 3 points away from playing in the title game. This is quite a falloff from such recent history.
Matchup Grade: D
Orange Bowl
#3 Virginia Tech vs #8 Kansas
Ignoring the fact that Missouri is a better team, the Fiesta didn't do that poorly with Kansas. The Jayhawks are a mostly untested team, but Va Tech's quarterback situation means this one probably won't get ugly. I'm interested to see how an offense that statistically ranks in the top 10, but may be completely the product of the teams they've faced, stacks up against a defense that has finished in the top 10 for several straight seasons. In the end, Va Tech is a team who was tightly in the title discussion and Kansas is a team who would have been if they weren't, well, Kansas.
Matchup Grade: B+
Fiesta Bowl
#4 Oklahoma vs #9 West Virginia
If Pat White's injury really did have such an impact on the WVU-Pitt game (I don't remember it and thought that he was pulled for ineffectiveness, and I think it's inexcusable to lose to Pitt either way...), then these are TWO teams who are a bad hit away from having one loss and playing in New Orleans on Jan 8. In any case, Oklahoma just might be the best team in the country and West Virginia almost surely has the fastest offense.
Matchup Grade: A+
Sugar Bowl
#5 Georgia vs #10 Hawaii
Hawaii has won all 12 games this season and Georgia has won their last six, making them the only teams in the BCS who didn't lose in November or December! Some might argue that this means they should be playing for the title, but in any case I'm excited to see the hottest two teams in the country face off. Georgia is a proven commodity having finished 10-2 in the SEC with wins over Florida and Tennessee. Will Hawaii be this year's Boise State/Utah, or will the midmajor finally be humbled by the big bad "power conference" team in a BCS bowl?It's also noteworthy that Hawaii is usually the beneficiary of playing bowl games in their home stadium. It's ironic that in their biggest bowl game ever, the other team will basically have home crowd advantage.
Matchup Grade: A-
BCS Championship Game
Hosted by the Sugar Bowl
#1 Ohio State vs #2 LSU
Ignoring all arguments about who "should" have been here, we've got two pretty good teams who are here. Ohio State played in the first BCS Sugar Bowl and beat Texas A&M 24-14. They won the national title in 2002 and played for the national title last season. LSU played in the Sugar Bowl last season and beat Notre Dame 41-14. They won a share of the national title in 2003 with a victory in the Sugar Bowl. But that's all in the past...
This season, Ohio State did play one of the weaker schedules, but lost just one time and picked up road wins over Washington, Purdue, Penn State, and Michigan. For whatever it's worth, the latter three teams were ranked at the time (or overrated, as it's sometimes called). Wisconsin, however, is currently ranked and that was another victory for the Buckeyes. In a season where countless upsets occurred, Ohio State managed to do what they were supposed to in 11 of their 12 games which is more than 116 other teams can say.
LSU has two blemishes on their record, but they faced the toughest schedule of any contender. They have victories over teams ranked #3, #12, #16, and #23 in the BCS standings. One of the two teams who beat them, Arkansas, is ranked in the top 25 of every voter poll, though the computers drop them down to #27 in the BCS. They won the toughest conference and they have the most impressive nonconference victory of any team in the country. Indeed that victory over the ACC Champion may have been what put them ahead of both VT and Oklahoma, whose nonconference victory over bowl-ineligible Miami is nowhere near as impressive.
This game will feature one of the nation's best offenses against what is statistically the nation's best defense. Their counterparts are underrated as LSU's defense has given up many overtime points where the opponent basically starts on the goalline, and OSU's offense has often been content to run out the clock in their comfortable victories. Each team has a fatal flaw - LSU's red zone defense and OSU's quarterback play. It's somewhat interesting that Ohio State has never beaten an SEC team in a bowl game and that Ohio State's 2002 BCS Championship victory came in overtime while both of LSU's losses this season came in overtime.
LSU will be playing in basically a home environment and Ohio State won't have played a game in 50 days. However, LSU will be without their defensive coordinator Pelini who was hired by Nebraska, and they are currently dealing with some key injuries.
Matchup Grade: A+ for general BCS Bowl, B for Championship Game
Karma Cleansing:
As I've noted before, the Big 12 has benefitted from the BCS formulas in the past to get invites to bowls over teams who the voters had ranked higher. Who was right - the voters or the computers - really isn't the point; that is what happened. This season:
* Oklahoma, arguably the best team in the nation when healthy, was passed over despite dealing two losses to the team who was ranked #1 in the final week.
* Missouri, despite being ranked #6 overall, was left out in favor of two at-large teams ranked below them - Kansas and Illinois both of whom they defeated!
* Kansas, despite being just one of two BCS conference teams with only one loss, was left out of the title game in favor of a team with a worse record. This is the first time that's ever happened to anyone but a midmajor.
If God actually cares about college football, He must really have it in for:
* Missouri.
The Tigers are most well-known for being the victim of Colorado's infamous "Fifth Down" in 1990.
This season, they beat Kansas and lose to Big 12 Champion Oklahoma twice... finishing 1st in the Big 12 North and 6th in the BCS Standings while Kansas finished 2nd in the Big 12 North and 8th in the BCS Standings. But because they were forced to play against OU (who's arguably the best team in the country) two times, they're not even in the BCS at all. I really cannot fathom why KU was chosen over Mizzou. Adding insult to injury, #13 Illinois who had a worse record than Missouri and lost to Missouri on a neutral field was the first at-large team chosen.
* Oregon.
The Ducks have twice been shafted by the BCS - in 2001, being one of three one-loss teams left out in favor of Nebraska, and in 2005, being left out entirely in favor of a lower-ranked Notre Dame team because of ND's special clauses in the BCS contracts.
This season, Oregon was #2 in the BCS with a blowout win at Michigan, a close loss to Cal, and coming straight off consecutive victories over USC and Arizona State. They lose Dennis Dixon and drop three straight games without him - plummeting out of the rankings entirely and landing a date in the Sun Bowl against South Florida.
What Might Have Been
BCS apologists say that in college football, every week is a playoff. If that's the case, then the 2007 season was a double-elimination tournament except that LSU's second loss didn't eliminate them, Kansas lost to Missouri and lost again for having "Kansas" on their jersey rather than "LSU" or "Ohio State," and Hawaii wasn't even allowed to play. Enough with the crap. Votes and panels work great for dancing, gymnastics, and figure skating where the competitors can't really go at it head to head. (although I'm sure Kerrigan vs Harding in an on-ice deathmatch would have tripled olympic viewership) This is football, let's settle things on the field.
The 2007 season only adds more fuel to the fire for a full-blown playoff in college football's top division. Forget plus-one, sure it's a lot better than what we've got now but even that isn't really enough. This season there's at least six or seven teams who have roughly equal arguments for being title contenders -- besides that, you can't justify putting Hawaii in the top four with their schedule but they certainly still deserve a chance to crown their perfect season with a championship. And as much as this season is the exception historically, if the overall parity in college football continues to increase, we'll have more and more seasons where the conference schedules plus maybe one decent nonconference game for each team just don't give a clear picture of how the top teams compare to each other.
As it makes little sense for the BCS to run anything more than the plus-one system, the playoffs are eventually going to be run by the NCAA. (perhaps with the BCS sticking around to run the Final Four through a series of "neutral-setting" bowls) If the NCAA runs a playoff, it will feature 16 teams. That's just a fact - it's how they run all the other divisions, who somehow manage to graduate their athletes. The only real question is if it would be just the top 16 teams or if there would be conference tie-ins. Having tie-ins makes things fair for everybody, so I'm going to go with that.
THE TEAMS
1. Ohio State - Big Ten Champion
2. LSU - SEC Champion
3. Virginia Tech - ACC Champion
4. Oklahoma - Big 12 Champion
5. Georgia - 10-2 at large
6. Missouri - 11-2 Big 12 runner-up
7. USC - Pac 10 Champion
8. Kansas - 11-1 at-large
9. West Virginia - Big East Champion
10. Hawaii - WAC Champion
11. Arizona State - 10-2 at-large
12. Florida - 9-3 at-large
13. BYU - Mountain West Champion
14. UCF - C-USA Champion
15. Troy - Sun Belt Champion
16. Central Michigan - MAC Champion
ROUND ONE:
16. Central Michigan AT 1. Ohio State
Ohio State has lots of experience playing against the MAC this season, and they handle CMU easily.
9. West Virginia AT 8. Kansas
Reesing's inexperience proves costly and KU has not seen the kind of speed WVU brings on offense.
13. BYU AT 4. Oklahoma
OU's starters get plenty of rest in this one.
12. Florida AT 5. Georgia
A rematch game! Just look at the difference between finishing in the top 4 vs finishing 5th... OU practically has a first round bye, whereas Georgia will be in for a real fight. Tebow is more healthy, but Florida still has not grown a defense. Dawgs in a classic SEC battle.
14. UCF AT 3. Virginia Tech
A coastal matchup featuring one of the nation's leading rushers vs a stout defense. VT wins but it's closer than many predicted...
11. Arizona State AT 6. Missouri
Missouri is a little better at QB, RB, and WR. Add that to their home field advantage and they win by 10.
10. Hawaii AT 7. USC
Another coastal game, this time out West. Hawaii puts up more of a fight than expected, but USC's experience of playing in big games time and again puts them over the top.
15. Troy AT 2. LSU
Troy just isn't prepared for a trip to Tiger Stadium and they get rocked.
ROUND TWO:
9. West Virginia AT 1. Ohio State
On a neutral field, WVU's speed on offense is too much for the Buckeyes. But in the Horseshoe at night, Ohio State is able to create a physical, slow, ugly game that's more to their liking.
5. Georgia AT 4. Oklahoma
Both of these teams have a lot of supporters right now who feel they should be playing against Ohio State. And in a playoff, the winning team would get that chance! Bradford > Stafford, OU wins.
6. Missouri AT 3. Virginia Tech
Missouri's offense is too much for VT to hold down all game, particularly with their own offense going 3-and-out to keep the defense on the field. Chase Daniel doesn't make the costly mistakes that Sean Glennon does, and the Tigers go into Blacksburg and win!
7. USC AT 2. LSU
Are you kidding me? This matchup has been talked about for the last four years and it's finally played, as the Trojans travel into Tiger Stadium - possibly the most hostile road environment in college football. It's the most talent on the field of any game so far, and when LSU scores the winning TD rather than kicking a tying FG, the crowd roar registers as an earthquake.
FINAL FOUR
1. Ohio State VS 4. Oklahoma
Site: Rose Bowl
The Rose Bowl is the traditional destination for Big Ten schools, but it's by random chance that it wound up hosting Ohio State. Oklahoma doesn't mind as they have fond memories of this bowl from the 2002 season. Both teams feature great defenses which keep the score down, but Boeckman turns the ball over three times including a pick-six and the Buckeye offense simply is not suited to play catch-up against this caliber of defense.
2. LSU VS 6. Missouri
Site: Sugar Bowl
This game's site somehow wound up being the Sugar Bowl, which isn't really neutral at all. Missouri's defense can't contend with all the speed LSU has on offense, while LSU's pressure defense and great cornerbacks force Chase Daniel into a game filled with big plays for both teams. It's enough for the Tigers - LSU, that is - to win comfortably in a high-scoring game.
The Orange Bowl and Fiesta Bowl aren't used this year, and so they are free to invite whomever they choose. (the bowls haven't been eliminated!) Any non-final four participants are free to invite, so the Orange Bowl is Va Tech vs West Va and the Fiesta Bowl grabs USC and Georgia.
CHAMPIONSHIP
4. Oklahoma VS 2. LSU
Site: Cotton Bowl
With a new mega-stadium, the Cotton Bowl will host the premiere bowl venue. The Sooners boast a more efficient, less mistake-prone QB despite him being a freshman. Their RB corps is the deeper of two amazing groups and their red zone defense is vastly superior to LSU's, despite the Tigers having a better defense between the 20s. OU gets revenge for that Sugar Bowl loss four years ago and becomes the first true champion of NCAA football.
You can't tell me this wouldn't be better than watching USC destroy Illinois, Georgia vs yet-untested Hawaii, a questionable selection of Kansas rather than Missouri to face Va Tech, and omg the one good matchup West Va vs Oklahoma... while LSU takes on Ohio State for the title.
An Immediate Shallow Analysis of Every Bowl Game
Rules of the Game:
* Look at each bowl pairing and make a quick superficial conclusion.
* Posted immediately after bowl pairings announced. (ok, I cheated a little and played Starcraft, went grocery shopping, and then wrote this)
* No looking up meaningful info on any teams. Records and schedules allowed a brief overview.
* Petty dismissal of teams I know little about is in fact encouraged.
I'll also be including the full name of each bowl, including sponsorship, because that reminds us that the bowl system puts money over what's best for college football, namely a playoff in a crazy season that would have rocked your nuts off.
Let's go:
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Utah vs. Navy
Preview: We have Poinsettias in the office and they're really pretty. I never realized that.
Pick: Navy - they beat Notre Dame, so obviously they're an amazing team,
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic
Preview: Memphis should thank their lucky stars that it's not Florida Pacific. According to Al Gore, that school should be opening in the next five years.
Pick: Florida Atlantic
Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati
Preview: Just the name of a website, not like the Papajohns.com Deep Dish Bowl? At 9-3 and with a BCS #22 ranking, how the hell did Cincy end up here?
Pick: Cincinnati
New Mexico
Nevada vs. New Mexico
Preview: The more I know, the less I care. The sad thing is, I don't know anything about either team, and I still don't care.
Pick: Heads - Nevada!
Pioneer Las Vegas
UCLA vs. BYU
Preview: BYU makes their second straight appearance in a bowl nobody cares about against a 6-6 Pac 10 team. UCLA prevented Notre Dame from starting 0-10 and are down to their 4th string QB... with assurances that the "WR" printed as his position in the early season guides is in fact a typo. Fear not, Bruins, that tactic works really well in a lot of video games.
Pick: BYU.
Sheraton Hawaii
Boise State vs. East Carolina
Preview: Is East Carolina located in North Carolina or South Carolina? And how much does it rock to go to college in Idaho and play your final TWO games in Hawaii?
Pick: Boise State with at least 15 different versions of the hook and ladder, including the first ever Statue of Ladder combination trick play.
Motor City
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Preview: When you go to CMU, nothing says vacation like a trip to Detroit.
Pick: Purdue
Pacific Life Holiday
Arizona State vs. Texas
Preview: The first interesting matchup. A Texas win gives them seven straight seasons of at least 10 wins. ASU's gotta be pissed about Illinois making it to the BCS over them... add Erickson's name to the growing list of people who hate Jim Delany.
Pick: Texas
Champs Sports
Boston College vs. Michigan State
Preview: BC - from national title contender with an impressive victory over Notre Dame and a Heisman hopeful QB to early December bowl against a 7-5 Big Ten school, all in about a month.
Pick: Boston College
Texas
TCU vs. Houston
Preview: Both teams are in fact from Texas, making it more geographically accurate than the New Mexico Bowl.
Pick: Houston. F*CK TCU!
Emerald
Maryland vs. Oregon State
Preview: Just because 8 ACC teams are bowl eligible doesn't mean they should all go.
Pick: Oregon State
Meineke Car Care
UConn vs. Wake Forest
Preview: I can't. I honestly can't. It's too lame to even make fun of. There is nothing good about this bowl, and I hope they find a way to cancel it.
Pick: UConn
AutoZone Liberty
UCF vs. Mississippi State
Preview: If the folks at AutoZone were forced to pick between Liberty and Death, and that choice was translated into watching this bowl, then clearly they didn't go with Liberty.
Pick: UCF
Valero Alamo
Penn State vs. Texas A&M
Preview: After one and a half centuries, Joe Paterno revisits the site of that historic battle. They were running the same schemes back then, too.
Pick: I hate it... but A&M.
PetroSun Independence
Alabama vs. Colorado
Preview: After replacing Mike Shula, Nick Saban led Alabama to the exact same record for only $3 million/year more. A bowl loss to a 6-6 Big 12 school would only further prove the sagacity of the hiring decision.
Pick: Alabama
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
California vs. Air Force
Preview: Cal-Berkley is in the armed forces bowl? As what, protesters?
Pick: Air Force, by virtue of beating Notre Dame who beat Stanford who beat Cal.
Roady's Humanitarian
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State
Preview: I can count on both hands the number of teams who beat Notre Dame this season, and one of them's playing in this bowl.
Pick: Georgia Tech
Brut Sun
Preview: South Florida vs. Oregon
Pick: At one point each of these teams was ranked #2 and had a huge victory over their eventual confernece champion. Oregon has an excuse, but that's not going to help them here.
Pick South Florida. Oregon's actually going to go 0-for-since losing Dixon.
Gaylord Hotels Music City
Kentucky vs. Florida State
Preview: Kentucky beat LSU then tanked. Florida State kicked Jeffy Jeff but still can't score.
Pick: FSU, once again generating preseason hype which they can fall short of.
Insight
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State
Preview: Just because 10 Big Ten teams are bowl eligible doesn't mean more than 5 should actually get bowl invites. Not like Oklahoma State can boast of much themselves.
Pick: OK State
Chick-fil-A
Clemson vs. Auburn
Preview: They dropped the Peach all together?? Really? And is Clemson-Aubie a possible rivalry game?
Pick: Auburn. Over/under touches for Spiller is 9.
Outback
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Preview: Once again, the oUTback Bowl. Spurrier's laughing his ass off. From his couch, where he'll be spending bowl season.
Pick: Tennessee
AT&T Cotton
Missouri vs. Arkansas
Preview: This looks like a great matchup. Nation's best RB vs one of the top spread offenses, not a whole lot of defense to slow either side down. But Missouri deserved a BCS bid...
Pick: Missouri
Gator
Texas Tech vs. Virginia
Preview: Watching the nation's best freshman WR playing in a gimmick offense against an overrated team should be a lot of fun.
Pick: Texas Tech
Capital One
Michigan vs. Florida
Preview: Definitely gets the WTF Bowl of the year award. Florida is a BCS-quality team who lost two games to teams who wound up as national title contenders. They also run a similar offense to Appalachian State and Oregon... only with Tim Tebow. If you've been itching to put your entire life savings on a college football game, this is as good a pick as any.
Pick: Flori-duh
Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC
Preview: For those of you who don't obsess about this stuff, the selection process worked so that Ohio State, LSU, USC, Va Tech, and Oklahoma all had tie-ins to specific bowls based on their final ranking or conference title. The Rose Bowl then got to choose the FIRST non-tie-in team and picked Illinois over Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, West Virginia, Hawaii, Arizona State, Florida, and Boston College. WHY?? ASU and BC are the only ones I wouldn't have picked over Illinois.
Pick: USC
Allstate Sugar
Hawaii vs. Georgia
Preview: The picking order for BCS Bowls was Orange then Fiesta then Sugar. Looks like nobody wanted Hawaii but they were an automatic qualifier. (yes, it's all about the money) That said, this is a potentially underrated matchup.
Pick: Georgia
Tostitos Fiesta
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Preview: I have no idea why the Orange Bowl went with Kansas rather than West Virginia, but the Fiesta Bowl thanks them for it. This is by far the best matchup of the four non-championship BCS Bowls.
Pick: Oklahoma
FedEx Orange
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Preview: Going with a Big 12 at-large team had the potential to create two great BCS Bowls (the other being the Fiesta) following the Rose Bowl's questionable selection of Illinois. But why not Missouri who beat Kansas and won the North division?
Pick: Va Tech
International
Rutgers vs. Ball State
Preview: When somebody asks me what I'll be doing around 10am on the first Saturday in January, I'll probably respond "sleeping." I'll then have to clarify that "By that, I don't mean watching Rutgers and Ball State play in Canada."
Pick: There are no winners, only losers. Rutgers will be the loser with the higher score, though.
GMAC
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa
Preview: Why not Miami who finished #2 in the conference? Though I wouldn't give a crap if I hadn't gone there.
Pick: Bowling Green... sucks. Tulsa.
Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU vs. Ohio State
Preview: Did they get the right matchup? I'd say no, but I'm not disappointed with this one. Realistically, this season has a ton of imperfect teams and the Championship Game might not even feature either of the best two. What it does feature is two proud programs who have both already won a BCS title (so we have a guaranteed first two-BCS Championship winner), a chance for the Big Ten to redeem themselves against the SEC, and a chance for Les Miles to walk the walk after talking the talk in August. On a related note, props to Miles for making the honorable decision and staying at LSU. Sucks for the Tigers to be without def coordinator Pelini though.
Pick: As a Michigan man, Les Miles knew that only his current team and not his alma mater have the chance to stop a brink-of-emerging Buckeyes dynasty that would quickly become the most annoying in college football history, as eventually the Buckeyes would leave the Big Ten to become independent and play 12 Ohio teams while their fans note that, for some reason, other schools had more trouble winning all their games. LSU.
