Not since 2003 have there been fewer unbeatens at this point of a college football season. Recall that in 2003, not a single team finished the regular season unblemished, and the BCS had one of its most controversial seasons ever. Unless you think two teams from the group Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Arizona State, and Kansas can run the table, we'll be in for at least a modicum of controversy come December. Actually, if Oklahoma or LSU finishes with just one loss then we may have controversy even if there are two unbeatens from that list (of the unbeatens, only USF's schedule ranks in the top HALF of the nation for SOS at #12). With that in mind, it's time to look at the AP Top 25 for possible title game players:
1. Ohio State
Loss:
none
Big W's:
10/6 @ Purdue, 23-7
Remaining:
10/27 @ Penn State
11/17 @ Michigan
Outlook:
With their weak schedule, Ohio State absolutely must go unbeaten to play in the title game. Realistically, Michigan is the only team in the Big Ten with enough talent (and only because Ohio State relies much more on the run than last year) to defeat the Buckeyes straight-up. Penn State is a threat because of OSU's recent history in Happy Valley. Ohio State has a very strong chance of running the table.
2. South Florida
Loss:
none
Big W's:
9/8 @ Auburn, 26-23
9/28 vs West Virginia, 21-13
Remaining:
10/18 @ Rutgers
11/3 vs Cincinnati
11/17 vs Louisville
Outlook: By schedule, USF actually could have a loss and still legitimately argue to be included over any one loss team not from the SEC. But their name won't allow it. They have three remaining games that will be tough to sweep, and despite being a legitimately good team I give USF less than a 50% chance of running the table.
3. Boston College
Loss:
none
Big W's:
9/15 @ Georgia Tech, 24-10
Remaining:
10/25 @ Virginia Tech
11/3 vs Florida State
11/17 @ Clemson
ACC Championship
Outlook: With their schedule, it's not entirely inconceivable for BC to run the table and get jumped by a 1-loss LSU. To be honest, I don't know how I'd feel about that - given both how hard it is for any team to win all their games, but also the gross difference in schedule strengths. However, BC's easy schedule was ridiculously easy for the opening seven games; their final five opponents have something of a pulse. I think they'll lose a road game to VT or Clemson. If they go win out in the regular season, BC might want to hope Virginia does well so that they avoid a rematch with VT.
4. Oklahoma:
Loss:
9/29 @ Colorado, 29-24
Big W's:
9/8 vs Miami, 51-13
10/6 vs Texas, 28-21
10/13 vs Missouri, 41-31
Remaining:
11/17 @ Texas Tech
Big XII Championship
Outlook: Fortunately for the Sooners, their loss came in conference and just after people had started to hype them up - so they avoided the peril of losing too early in September. They've already positioned themselves as the top one-loss team, and hypothetical wins over Texas Tech and the North champion might appear more impressive than they actually are (though I'm convinced of Mizzou's legitimacy). I think we'll have either 1 or 0 unbeaten teams aside from possibly Hawaii, so OU actually has a strong chance of climbing back into the top two.
5. LSU
Loss:
10/13 @ Kentucky, 43-37 3OT
Big W's:
9/8 vs Va Tech, 48-7
9/22 vs South Carolina, 28-16
10/6 vs Florida, 28-24
Remaining:
10/20 vs Auburn
SEC Championship
Outlook: LSU has to like the fact that, one week following their loss, they only dropped 3-4 spots in the polls and were the top one-loss team in the BCS standings. If they win out, I think they like their chances of at least catching up to Oklahoma in the human polls and having the SEC's strength give them the edge in the computers. On that note, they might root for Florida to beat FSU and South Carolina over Clemson, to pull more points into their schedule... and obviously, go Virginia Tech. LSU has had a small number of very important injuries - notably Doucet and Jackson - whom they can probably win without for a while now that they are past the most grueling part of their schedule, but will need to have back and at 100% should they be faced with Florida a second time.
6. South Carolina
Loss:
9/22 @ LSU, 28-16
Big W's:
9/8 @ Georgia, 16-12
10/4 vs Kentucky, 38-23
Remaining:
10/27 @ Tennessee
11/10 vs Florida
11/24 vs Clemson
SEC Championship
Outlook: Assuming a USF and BC loss, South Carolina might be the final school who controls their own destiny. Winning out would mean either beating LSU in the SEC championship or not playing against them (meaning the Tigers lose elsewhere) and I think that, from a realistic standpoint, the Gamecocks might need that to be the latter. I don't know that they are going to be able to beat both Tennessee and Florida - and they'll probably have another game with LSU which seems an even longer shot for them.
7. Oregon
Loss:
9/29 vs Cal, 31-24
Big W's:
9/8 @ Michigan, 39-7
Remaining:
10/27 vs USC
11/3 vs Arizona State
Outlook: Oregon may have just lost Colvin and Johnson for the entire season, which is going to make it hard for them to win out. And even if they do, USC and Cal's upset losses damage their loss and their potentially most impressive win. Oregon probably needs Michigan to win the Big Ten, in addition to the Ducks winning out, to have a chance of getting into the title game over a one-loss South Carolina or Kentucky. LSU and Oklahoma would need to lose. Probably not happening.
8. Kentucky
Loss:
10/4 @ South Carolina, 38-23
Big W's
9/15 vs Louisville, 40-34
10/13 vs LSU, 43-37 3OT
Remaining:
10/20 vs Florida
11/17 @ Georgia
11/24 vs Tennessee
SEC Championship
Outlook: Their victory over LSU may be the best signature win of any team with title game hopes. Kentucky winning out would mean an incredible resume of victories but they would also have to hope that South Carolina loses in order to play in the SEC Championship. A more interesting scenerio might involve LSU losing to Auburn and then winning out, and South Carolina losing only a second time to LSU in the conference championship -- leaving Kentucky with the best record and highest ranking in the conference but not having played in the championship game. However not only do they not control their own destiny in the SEC East, but they would also need Oregon and Oklahoma to lose on top of South Carolina. Personally I think they will lose to Florida, but if they win this weekend then their odds improve dramatically.
9. West Virginia
Loss:
9/28 @ USF, 21-13
Big W's:
none
Remaining:
10/27 @ Rutgers
11/8 vs Louisville
11/17 @ Cincinnati
Outlook: Should West Virginia win out, losses given to the above three teams could ensure that WVU has not beaten a top 25 opponent all season. But whether UC winds up ranked #24 or #27, the fact is that the Mountaineers again faced a weak schedule and did nothing but make it weaker with their nonconference choices. Worse, this season the offense hasn't looked half as fierce as last, and with two big road games remaining it's tough to see the Mountaineers winning out in the first place.
10. Cal
Loss:
10/13 vs Oregon State, 31-28
Big W's:
9/1 vs Tennessee, 45-31
9/29 @ Oregon, 31-24
Remaining:
10/27 @ Arizona State
11/10 vs USC
Outlook: Cal has played a tough, tough schedule and if they win out they'll have four quality wins with three of two of those coming on the road. If the Golden Bears win out, voters might also remember that their lone loss came without their starting quarterback and even then only because his replacement made a boneheaded decision on the final play. At this point, it's looking like Oregon was Cal's toughest opponent, and we're still not sure if ASU is even for real. The Bears have a good chance of winning out, but the only team above them they can realistically hope to jump without a loss from here out is West Virginia.
11. Virginia Tech
Loss:
9/8 @ LSU, 48-7
Big W's:
10/6 @ Clemson, 41-23
Remaining:
10/25 @ Boston College
11/1 @ Georgia Tech
11/10 vs Florida State
ACC Championship
Outlook: The Hokies would need a lot of help to climb nine spots in the rankings. They can make some of that happen by beating Boston College, but they still have to hope that eight other teams above them lose. Of course they would have to run the table the rest of the way. One or the other - maybe both - won't happen.
12. Arizona State
Loss:
none
Big W's:
none
Remaining:
10/27 vs Cal
11/3 @ Oregon
11/22 vs USC
Outlook: For the Sun Devils, it's simple: if they win out, they'll be in the BCS championship barring three unbeatens - and even then, they could leapfrog Boston College or maybe even USF. A loss with their ranking already this low eliminates them. Bottom line - that's three tough games and they'll probably lose two.
13. USC
Loss:
10/6 vs Stanford, 24-23
Big W's:
9/15 @ Nebraska, 49-31
Remaining:
10/27 @ Oregon
11/10 @ Cal
11/22 @ Arizona State
Outlook: USC lost a close game that came down to some luck, but more importantly came down to a heck of a lot of Trojan injuries. Those injuries haven't gone away, and if players like Stafon Johnson don't get back before that game against Oregon they're looking at another loss in these tough three road games. But if anyone can sprint up the polls, it's USC, and I'd say that only LSU and *maybe* Oklahoma would have a chance of being chosen above the Trojans with one loss.
14. Florida
Loss:
9/29 vs Auburn, 20-17
10/6 @ LSU, 28-24
ELIMINATED
T-15. Missouri
Loss:
10/13 @ Oklahoma, 41-31
Big W's:
9/1 @ Illinois, 40-34
10/6 vs Nebraska, 41-6
Remaining:
10/20 vs Texas Tech
11/17 @ Kansas State
11/24 @ Kansas
Big XII Championship
Outlook: Missouri is fortunate that the rest of their games look very winnable and that they will likely get a chance to rematch Oklahoma. Winning that rematch would make them the clear Big XII #1 and jump them over Oklahoma in the polls. However, they would need all the SEC and Pac 10 teams above them to lose - as well as two of the top three unbeatens. Stranger things have happened, but they're a very long shot.
T-15. Kansas
Loss:
none
Big W's:
10/6 @ Kansas State, 30-24
Remaining:
11/24 vs Missouri
Big XII Championship
Outlook: Kansas has a very, very forunate schedule as the avoid Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. This will give them a weak SOS, but a final game against Missouri and a conference championship win over (likely opponent) Oklahoma would give them a big jump in the computer polls in the final weeks. Bottom line - an unbeaten team from the Big XII, even if it's Kansas, gets in over any one-loss team - particularly if Oklahoma and Missouri don't lose more than one game combined to someone other than Kansas. Still, I have no reason to believe that they will beat both Missouri and OU.
17. Hawaii
Loss:
none
Big W's:
none
Remaining:
11/10 vs Fresno State
11/23 vs Boise State
12/1 vs Washington
Outlook: With their schedule, going 12-0 might not be enough to get the Warriors into the BCS, let alone the championship game.
18. Auburn
Loss:
9/8 vs South Florida, 26-23
9/15 vs Mississippi State, 19-14
ELIMINATED
19. Texas
Loss:
9/29 vs Kansas State, 41-21
10/6 @vs Oklahoma, 28-21
ELIMINATED
20. Tennessee
Loss:
9/1 @ Cal, 45-21
9/15 @ Florida, 59-20
ELIMINATED
21. Georgia
Loss:
9/8 vs South Carolina, 16-12
10/6 @ Tennessee, 35-14
ELIMINATED
22. Texas Tech
Loss:
9/22 @ Oklahoma State, 49-45
Big W's:
none
Remaining:
10/20 @ Missouri
11/10 @ Texas
11/14 vs Oklahoma
Big XII Championship
Outlook: The Red Raiders have a lot of big games between now and the end of the season. If they keep playing well, Heisman hype about both Harrell and Crabtree might give them some help in the polls. Bottom line, 12-1 might not be enough for them as they'd need the SEC, Pac 10, BC/VT, and USF/WVU to help them out.
23. Cincinnati
Loss:
10/13 vs Louisville, 28-24
Big W's:
10/6 @ Rutgers, 28-23
Remaining:
11/3 @ South Florida
11/17 vs West Virginia
Outlook: Cincinnati just does not have enough recent history to garner top two votes with one loss. They have been effectively eliminated.
24. Michigan
Loss:
9/1 vs Appalachian State, 34-32
9/8 vs Oregon, 39-7
ELIMINATED by the first loss alone.
25. Kansas State
Loss:
9/1 @ Auburn, 23-13
10/6 vs Kansas, 30-24
ELMINATED
