The 2008 Season in a Box
You know that box that your family’s used for Christmas gifts for the last 15 years? It’s kind of turned into a running joke, and whoever gets that box is kind of a minor celebrity for the rest of the day – or at least for the few hours before Grandpa gets into the ‘nog and starts rehashing WWII stories to the grandkids for the 400th time. It’s cool that he does that, but does he really need to tell the kids about picking up hookers outside of Paris again?
The funny thing is that there’s nothing special about this box; it just developed a mythos of its own after a few years. It’s pretty much average – it’s held up well over the years, but that’s about it. For South Carolina, that describes nearly every season of the last 7 years; sure, they’re 44-39 over those seasons, but their bowl games over those years read like the who’s who of who cares: Independence, Liberty, Outback. On the plus side, at least they’re still relevant.
Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Well, what’s gone isn’t too terribly important, but what’s replacing it isn’t much better in a lot of cases. Improvement will be measured in the form of any semblance of a running game and the defense not regressing a bit.
On Offense
South Carolina frankly has never had the personnel to run anything related to the Fun ‘n’ Gun of Spurrier’s Florida days, but he does have the most talented QB of his reign in Stephen Garcia, who gets the reins after last year’s starter Chris Smelley transferred to Alabama. Garcia was a big deal recruiting, as far as these things go; to me, he feels like he’s been around forever already, but he’s only a sophomore. Last year wasn’t great for him (53.3%, 832 yards, 6/8) but that shouldn’t happen again. I’d expect around 57-58% with maybe a 1.5/1 ratio, which are solid but not superstar numbers. This would put him somewhere around the fringes of starting in most deeper leagues and likely a bye-week option at best.
Of course, with any QB, their fantasy results are only as good as who they’re surrounded with. This year shapes up to be even more of a wasteland than prior years; only WR Moe Brown and TE Weslye Saunders even crack Steele’s fourth team, at which point even the Prognosticator throws up his hands and goes “I got nothing.” It’ll be up to Garcia to make these guys look palatable, and help isn’t entirely on the way. WR Dion LeCorn should be decent – he’s certainly talented enough to be good, even in this offense – but he’s spent most of the last couple of years underachieving. Sure, true freshman WR Alashon Jeffery may contribute this year, but with this offense looking completely inept I see no real reason not to redshirt him and try again next year. If he doesn’t contribute, Jason Barnes and Lamar Scruggs’ roles will increase.
Quite frankly, someone needs to step up and be a legitimate #2 receiver. Hell, I’d settle for a #2.5, but they need a #1 too, and that’s not a good spot to be in. None of these guys particularly excite me, so maybe we’ll see a 1.5 / 2 combo of Brown and someone else. There’s enough potential floating around here that I think they’ll be okay provided Garcia can 1) get on track and 2) stay on track. Until we see that happen though, steer clear of these guys.
On the other hand, the passing game looks solid compared to the rushing attack. Mike Davis is gone, but maybe that’s a good thing; his 573 yards rushing led the team, but 3.5 ypc out of a leading rusher is not something to maintain from year to year. Eric Baker and Brian Maddox are the leading returning RBs; they thankfully averaged 4.0 ypc and 3.8 ypc last year, which …well, while it’s technically a step up, it still sucks. Someone will need to get near 4.5 ypc for USC to even have a competent rushing attack (remember that sacks will knock their aggregate numbers back a bit); Baker seems the better option of the two to get that, but true frosh RB Jarvis Giles may sneak carrier. While I’m not a fan of Jeffery seeing a ton of action, Giles may be needed to contribute, as this pack is pretty weak.
On Defense and Special Teams
This season will answer the chicken-egg question: was South Carolina’s defensive prowess last year the product of Ellis Johnson’s system or 9 returning starters? Eric Norwood returns this season – calling him quality is an understatement – but other than him it’s all fresh faces and peach fuzz in the LB corps. Depth will be fueled in part by JUCOs, but there’s no other obvious impact player among the pack. The defensive line is in pretty good shape at least, relatively speaking. They have three starters back – Cliff Matthews may be the best among those guys – and while none of them are world-beaters, when most of the rest of the defense is rolling over these things are appreciated.
Ellis Johnson has always done a good job making a game ugly – it’s likely no coincidence that Mississippi State went downhill once he left – so this is the kind of defense that he’d probably love. Other than Norwood (and maybe Stewart), there aren’t any stars or guys to build around here, which means they’ll somehow have their best season yet and nobody will be able to figure out how. This defense reminds me – go figure – of the MSU defenses of a few years ago; other than Derek Pegues, did anyone know anybody on that team? Last year’s outfit wasn’t too bad until the last three games of the year (Florida completely woodshedded them); if USC can even end up around the aggregate numbers they posted last year they’ll be in good enough shape to contend. If they play like they did the first 10 games of the season, they’ll be dominant.
K Ryan Succop finally (finally!) graduated, Spencer Lanning will now pull double duty; Lanning’s a good punter but it’s anyone’s guess as to how that will translate to placekicking. Normally these transitions aren’t too bad, but Succop was a good kicker, so even if Lanning is average it’ll feel like a downgrade. The return game may end up doubling up, too; Chris Culliver will likely slot in as the punt returner to go with his KR duties. Culliver’s a bit above average, but I don’t expect him to be a gamebreaker-type returner. Giles and/or Jeffery may get some action here too if they don’t end up redshirting, but any KR duties will be in conjunction with their contribution in the offense, not their sole contribution. The D/ST combo should be halfway decent, but they’re probably subpar for the SEC, and as such shouldn’t be looked at in shallower leagues. Similarly, there’s nothing special about Lanning.
So What’s Their Bowl Game?
The schedule does the Gamecocks no favors, as they draw Ole Miss and Alabama out of the West to go with “rival” Arkansas. Even the non-conference slate isn’t easy, especially if NC State is actually on the rise and not just talking about being better. There’s a not-insignificant chance that even though this team improves a bit that the record going into bowl season won’t be much different than it was in 2008; truth be told, 7-5 may even need to include an upset. Still, with the SEC bowl tie-ins even a New Year’s Day bowl is an outside shot, although I’d be surprised if they move much above Music City on the pecking order.
