Maybe the better title would've been "Divisional One-Fifth of the Season Updates." That's kind of clunky, though, so you're stuck with that title. What can you figure out in the first month of the season with the standings? Well, if you can pick the divisional winners from that, I'd be surprised. However, you can figure out who's probably not going to get the title. That's what this is focusing on - who's probably out of it already.
(Standings are valid through Sunday night's games, since that's when I have the records.)
AL EAST
1 - Boston (19-12, 0 GB)
1 - New York (18-11, 0 GB)
3 - Toronto (16-14, 2.5 GB)
4 - Baltimore (14-19, 6 GB)
5 - Tampa Bay (13-19, 6.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- None
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Baltimore
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- None
DIVISION SYNOPSIS:
No real surprises in terms of ordering. I don't think anyone outside of homers expected the breakdown to be that different.
Both Baltimore and Tampa Bay are up against it when it comes to staying competitve in the division. Given Tampa Bay's pitching woes (they suck except for Kazmir) and hitting ineffectiveness (Cantu and Baldelli on the DL, Huff just off the DL), they're probably toast - but not yet. Baltimore can both hit and pitch, but they tend to do both at once. In other words, they're streaky, not consistent.
Toronto probably needs to get Burnett back soon; the early performance of Alexis Rios has helped, though. They have the firepower available on the team to make things interesting at the top.
Boston? Viva le Papelbon.
New York? They can hit.
AL CENTRAL
1 - Chicago (22-9, 0 GB)
2 - Detroit (20-12, 2.5 GB)
3 - Cleveland (17-15, 5.5 GB)
4 - Minnesota (13-18, 9 GB)
5 - Kansas City (7-22, 14 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Detroit
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Minnesota
- Cleveland (mildly)
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- Kansas City
DIVISION SYNOPSIS:
Let's get the obvious out of the way first. Kansas City sucks (but inexplicably owns Cleveland) and the White Sox still own everyone.
As for the rest of the division, surprises abound. Cleveland is mildly struggling (maybe they should beat the Royals; that'd help) - they're hitting, but the pitching has struggled mightily. With the amount of talent they have, there's no reason why they can't go on a roll.
Minnesota has deeper problems. Everyone figured that they couldn't hit (which is right). Nobody predicted the rotation would struggle. Johan Santana should work it out soon (and has showns signs of doing so already), as might Scott Baker, but their best help - Francisco Liriano - is locked into the bullpen thanks to Jesse Crain's ineffectiveness.
Detroit has been the biggest surprise. Can they keep it up? Everyone's playing over their heads right now, but the interesting thing is that they're not too above their heads. In addition, their historical performers (the guys who have done well before) haven't woken up yet. This might last longer than anyone expects.
AL WEST
1 - Texas (17-15, 0 GB)
2 - Oakland (16-15, 0.5 GB)
3 - Los Angeles (14-18, 3 GB)
4 - Seattle (13-20, 4.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Texas
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Los Angeles
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- None
DIVISION SYNOPSIS:
Oddly enough, Texas is getting by on better-than-expected pitching. Their offense hasn't quite snapped in like everyone thought - yet. That won't last. The question for them is will the pitching perform well enough for long enough.
Seattle has kind of devolved into the King Felix show. Well, that and the "Everyday Eddie Ain't Everyday no More" miniseries; J.J. Putz is the main guy now. The rest of the team is kind of boring, in truth; it's not a horrible team (there are worse out there), but there's not any one thing they do well.
Anaheim, on the other hands, is great at not giving their starters run support. The back end of the rotation has some issues thanks to Colon's injury. In addition, they have this weird youth/vet thing going on with their hitters that you normally only see with rebuilding teams. Theyll work it out, though.
Oakland normally struggles early. This start can only mean good things for them once they go 22-4 in August (give or take).
NL EAST
1 - New York (21-10, 0 GB
2 - Philadelphia (17-14, 4 GB)
3 - Atlanta (13-18, 8 GB)
4 - Washington (11-21, 10 GB)
5 - Florida (8-21, 12.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- New York
- Philadelphia
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Washington
- Atlanta
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- Washington
- Florida
DIVISION SYNOPSIS:
Florida and Washington are both bad. Florida kind of has a purpose to its performance; the Nats don't (but that may change soon). Atlanta hasn't pitched as effectively as expected (see Jorge Sosa, early Tim Hudson) and hasn't hit well either. That might turn around soon, but it may not matter by that point.
Philly is marginally better than expected, and in a divsiino with one struggling team and two bad ones, that's about all it takes to look like a challenger to the Mets.
The Mets have opened up strong. However, there are some cracks in the castle walls: Cliff Floyd has struggled and Victor Zambrano is out for the year. If Floyd stays healthy, he'll turn it around, but the Zambrano injury weakens the back end of the rotation. On top of that, movig Heilman into the rotation would weaken a pretty solid bullpen.
NL CENTRAL
1 - Cincinnati (21-11, 0 GB)
2 - St. Louis (20-12, 1 GB)
3 - Houston (19-12, 1.5 GB)
4 - Milwaukee (16-16, 5 GB)
5 - Chicago (14-16, 6 GB)
6 - Pittsburgh (9-24, 12.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Cincinnati
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Chicago
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- Pittsburgh
DIVISION SYNOPSIS:
To nobody's surprise, Pittsburgh's been bad. They're stuck in a veteran/youth mold as well, and should probably just let the kids play. At least it'll be productive. Chicago hasn't played well, but injuries can be blamed for that mostly. They need offense in a bad way.
Cincinnati has had much better than expected pitching. Will it last? Maybe; Arroyo and Harang aren't bad, and with those bats, .500 the rest of the way is possible at least.
Houston has ben good, but blame it on a surprisingly good back-end of the rotation. Even with some changes, things might stay constant for them. Same with Milwaukee; look for them to stay kind of close, then make a late-season push.
St. Louis? Pujols is Pujols, and he's bailing out an underperforming offense.
NL WEST
1 - Colorado (19-13, 0 GB)
2 - Arizona (18-14, 1 GB)
3 - San Diego (16-15, 2.5 GB)
4 - Los Angeles (15-17, 4 GB)
5 - San Francisco (14-17, 4.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Colorado
- Arizona
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- None
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- None
DIVISION SYNOPSIS:
This division is pretty much a race to five games over .500, and as far the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants are around that range. All these teams have some kind of hole - usually back-end pitching and offense - so they'll stay close.
Probably the seaosn's biggest surprise has been the Rockies getting it done- on the road no less. With Helton back, it's not outside the realm of possibility they keep this up. Stranger things have happened, and it's not exactly a powerhouse division in the first place.
Arizona is also a surprise; however, their situation is slightly different than Colorado's. If they can rely on Webb and their offense, who knows? They stand a chance.
