6 thoughts over the last 2 games

1: The Jason Bergmann bubble popped on Friday. It was a fun ride while it lasted, and this time around it wasn't due to what I was afraid of happening (bad control). He was just hit hard - 8 H in only 6 IP. K/BB ratio wasn't bad (2:1), and I don't remember offhand how much of the outing could be blamed on bad D (my guess: probably one of the hits, maybe two). Still, it's at least a theoretical sign of concern / encouragement; I've been worried for a while that if/when Bergmann would implode, it'd be of the Oliver Perez "I'm walking everyone in the stadium" variety. This wasn't that - it was just getting beat up. That, in it of itself, is expected.

2: John Patterson left the game early yesterday. Surprised? I'm not - but he was sidelined by a bicep problem. Pick your joke (increasing levels of cynicism):
A - at least it wasn't his forearm
B - he's always been injured
C - he strained it giving himself a hug to feel better
D - this does nothing to fix his poor broken soul
Bottom line, this would hurt in theory, but since he's effectively - at best - the #3 starter now anyway, whatever. In this rotation, #3 = replacement level.

3: The Jesus Flores "two guys are" Watch(ing) continues. 3-for-4 on Friday, and if Schenider continues to bite it, I'll be curious to see if Bodes can either spin him off for something that could possibly be useful.

If you've ever played sim baseball, this next paragraph will make sense - if not, hang on. The catching situation is like having a 1-star starting C and a 2-star prospect in the big leagues. The prospect might be useful, but the starter sure as hell isn't. Flip the starter to see what you can get - if it's some middling crap middle reliever, so be it, but at least he's cheaper. Put the prospect in and see what happens; if you're not in a pennant race, who cares? You were getting a zero there anyway, it might as well be a cheaper zero.

(Kasten would be so proud!)

4: Ryan Langerhans watch: 0-3 with 2 Ks, first PH off the bench on Friday and Saturday and defensive replacement in LF (for Kasto). Trade back! Maybe they can talk Langerhans into hitting righty.

5: Three boos for Levale Speigner walking in the bases loaded yesterday. Not that he was really going to do anything useful anyway, but walking in a run is probably the most disheartening situation to be in as a fan - and walking in three in a row? Kind of inexcusable. Of course, once the runs started to be earned for him he got out of the inning - hope he gets some kind of present for knocking Patterson's ERA up (and his arbitration number down!).

6: Zimm hasn't had a bad last couple of games: 4-for-8 with a couple of walks. One double both games, with a SB yesterday (whee) to boot. I'm thinking that with an increase in walks, Zimm's value will go back up; I don't have the time at the moment to go delve into his past history to see if that's actually a useful indicator or not, but it makes intuitive sense. His OBP is only .309 so far, but that's well above the .236 (OBP Mendoza?) he was showing a couple of weeks ago.

Spinning the Wheels

First off, my apologies for not posting here in a while; I was out of town and out of touch for a few days this past weekend, and the last couple of days have been lost to studying for finals. Updates will be semi-sporadic for a few days as finals continue and graduation stuff kicks in. (We'll address late May when we get there.)

Anyway, getting back to the topic at hand, it's gotten around the wires and blogs by now, but Chris Snelling has been traded for Ryan Langerhans, who ended up on the A's. Mariners fans can now immolate themselves when Snelling does well against them, and Braves fans can now do the same when Langerhans ....nah, who am I kidding. My initial reaction to the deal was somewhere solidly in the "WTF?" territory; that can be blamed on my perceptions of Snelling (not quite as rose-colored as USS Mariner, but probably not too connected with reality either) and Langerhans (bad). Admittedly, I didn't know much about Langerhans beyond he was one of those multiple Braves' OFs last year - I didn't even know he was pawned off to the A's.

Now that I've had a chance to process the deal, I'm coming up with ...well, treading water. Maybe it's a step forward, but it's not a giant step forward - maybe it's just a small step back. I don't know. Langerhans brings multi-positional defense and (depending on who you talk to) either a slightly worse bat than Snelling's or one approximately equal. In addition, he's under contract for another year than Snelling was. In it of itself, that's not bad - and if he can do something to keep one of the two Black Holes of Suck out of the lineup, then I can't blame him too much for that. (He can play CF; it remains to be seen if he will.)

Of course, we don't know how Langerhans will be used. If he's used like Snelling-plus, then I really can't complain; he wouldn't be actively sapping Church or Kearns of ABs beyond what they'd need for a rest period, he'd be a good late-inning defender (one that actually would be a defensive improvement), and he ...well, unless they teach him to switch hit, he won't be a righty bat off the bench. Can't win them all, I guess. In addition, if he's platooning in center then that will - as implied earlier - keep Logan out of the game, which has to be a good thing.

On the other hand, this isn't a gamebreaking trade. This looks like the equivalent of changing a font style. You can do it - and some people may like it a little more, which is good, right? - but it doesn't change the content. It won't turn the page you're designing into a masterpiece, and it won't turn this team into a contender. That's okay - if you think the team's going to compete this year, you're nuts anyway. However, making too many of these trades just seems like Bodes is shuffling the deck. One? Sure. Two? Eh, maybe. But unless this is going somewhere, it's not really that worth it.

Keep an Eye Out

Another day, another loss. There's nothing really that hopeful in the loss, although let's see what we can dig up that may be useful.

- John Patterson at least had movement on his pitches. Like so many of his starts so far, his velocity started out strong and then decreased as the game wore on. There's nothing inherently bad about that - most pitchers will lose a few MPH off their fastball between the 1st and the 6th innings - but the magnitude that Patterson was losing it was impressive. Yesterday was a little better; his velocity didn't start really dropping off until about 70-75 pitches in (somewhere around Howard's IBB), which is a good start. His stats weren't helped by the blowtorch job that Micah Bowie did, though. Now if Patterson can start hitting his spots, he might actually start living up to the promise he has.

- Ryan Zimmerman is at least beginning to hit the ball better now; so far it's right at fielders - and the GIDP last night was positively Vidro-esque - but at some point he's going to stop aiming them directly at the second baseman. Just a heads-up if he breaks out in the next week or so.

- The defense, it is horrid. I mean, it's not something we didn't expect to some degree (and I'm going to regret saying this when Logan and Guz come back, I think), but this is impressive. It's not all errors and wild throws, either. It's more positioning and bad breaks; I'll cut Belliard some slack mainly because he's basically a runaway train out there and the reason he's playing rover is because he'd make Vidro look like he has plus range if he was on the grass. I don't know if this will change at all if/when the injured players come back; my guess is it'll improve, if only because players will be at their natural position(s). I don't know if it'll help the boneheaded plays - and how much it will hurt the offense is something else to explore entirely, at a later date - but ...well, it can't hurt. If the stupidity is cut down, then the team will improve; it's that simple.

Like last week, don't expect many posts from now until Monday. The smart money is on "zero" for the number of posts between now and then, although if I get computer access that may change.

Channeling the Time Machine

The Nats had a good shot of winning tonight; Jason Bergmann put together another good outing, and although he still scares the piss out of me, this is three good outings in a row. By the numbers, that's three quality starts, meaning that Shawn Hill might actually have to move over on the "unsupported quality starts" bench.

Still, the most shocking part about Bergmann's start wasn't that it was good, it was that he left with a 3-2 lead after the 6th. That's really all that you can ask for from these starters, right? Throw fairly well, hope the team puts up a few runs and then let the bullpen close it out. We're not going to see many complete games from these guys, and we're not going to see many blowouts, eihter. The pitchers lack the stamina, and the bats lack the punch. As a result, we're basically left with what happened last night; a relatively close game going into the top of the 7th that was - at this point - still winnable.

Unfortunately, the Nats jumped into the time machine - way back to a couple of weeks ago - and put together some bad innings in the 7th and 8th. Before we go any further, this wasn't Acta's fault; he can't be blamed for the complete ineffectiveness of the relievers, and he certainly can't be blamed for throws that the cutoff man decided to not get. (Well, he can't be blamed for them now. If these problems persist .... maybe.)

So we're 3-2 in the top of the 7th. FLop singled to lead off, Belliard (who's starting to make me feel stupid about the whole "he'll be great out of the 2-hole" line of thought I had two weeks ago) grounded to second to advance Lopez. However, Ryan Zimmerman - who might just want to change his name to Snakebit at this point - lined directly to Chase Utley, who wasn't playing where second basemen usually play but more where he would play if he was trying to catch someone stealing. All the same, he caught the liner and doubled off FLop, end of inning.

Enter Saul Rivera in the bottom of the 7th, who promptly gave up the lead with a HR to Aaron Rowand. After a Ruiz single and an Abraham Nunez sacrifice (which: it's a tie game, Manuel must have had no confidence in Madson's ability to get down a sac), exit Saul Rivera and enter Micah Bowie. Bowie did get out of the 7th with no problems, but now it's tied.

Top of the 8th: nothing to see here. Church singles to left.

Bottom of the 8th, Bowie is back in. It's not a bad play here, really: Utley and Howard - the first two guys Bowie would face - are both lefties. Hope for the best with the matchup advantage (since Manuel's not PHing for them) and then let Rauch come in. It's a good idea in theory, and it'd probably work decently. However, Bowie fired a pitch almost behind Utley (hit him) and struck out Howard. Not unforgiveably terrible. Anyway, exit Bowie and enter Jon Rauch.

Ruach hasn't had much luck lately; he blew up just a few days ago, and now he came in with 1 on and 1 out in a game that - had he gotten out of the inning unscathed - might've lasted a while. Again. He didn't have it tonight either - at least not after the first part of the Burrell AB (where he got ahead 0-2). He walked Burrell on 4 straight, and then Wes Helms launched a crud missle into center. You know those hits, the kind of dumpers that drive you nuts when they happen to your team because the ball is absolutely in no-man's land, and that guy is coming around to score no matter what. It was a crud missile.

The Yahoo! play-by-play reads as follows for this: - W. Helms singled to center, C. Utley scored, P. Burrell to second. However, that doesn't quite describe what happened: Ryan Church then turned around and threw to third - again, not a bad idea: it stops Burrell from advancing. However, the throw missed the cutoff man and missed Zimmerman too. Burrell scored, and Helms was in position to trot home on a Carlos Ruiz single. 6-3, end of game (effectively).

So ...who's at fault, right? I can't really blame Rivera too much, Bowie basically did his job, and Rauch's just not going to have it some nights. Church's throw didn't help matters, but if it's on-target maybe we only have a 5-3 loss. It wasn't a game-breaker. Maybe you can blame the lack of hitting with RISP, but Zimm's double play was more a result of great D than a giant clunker of a hit.

More than anything else, it's these kind of losses that hurt. The Nats had a clear shot to win the game ... and yet, they couldn't. Three relievers in a row just got unlucky, and an errant throw killed what little shot the Nats had to win at that point. It's frustrating; we know after the last week that there is the talent to win games like this, but we can't all the time. On an intrinsic level, I know this ...and yet I hope I'm wrong.

Still, we'll see if today will turn out any different than yesterday. In all the ways that entails.

Masochism 101: Looking at the Nats' Staff

I don't know why I'm even posting this; as the title suggests, I must enjoy pain. Still, since I'm here and yesterday was an off day, I feel like something should be said, even if it's largely cursory. (Alternate explanation: I feel bad for not posting anything last weekend, or this upcoming weekend, as I'll be out of town yet again.) With that in mind, let's bust out the old grading scale, and our criteria are as follows:

1 - effectiveness (60%). This includes not allowing runners to score - and, failing that, at least stranding them.
2 - durability (20%). In short, what's the likelihood of these guys being stand-ins in those old Timex commercials where the guy smacks the hell out of a fly on his Timex watch?
3 - length of appearance (20%). For the love of god, keep the bullpen from killing itself.

John Patterson (D-)
He'd get an F, but at least he's struck out some guys. Well, relatively speaking. He avoids a F mainly based on his singularly-realized potential and the possibility he may actually be injured. (No, I'm not letting that go.) Average innings per start: 4.5. Good times.

Shawn Hill (B+)
Story of the season so far and the de facto ace - he will be the ace once Patterson gets injured. Not a whole lot of press outside of the Nats' circles, but that will change. Two quality starts in a row so far, and he's got better odds than most of continuing that streak.

Jason Bergmann (C-)
I really don't know what to make of him. He's durable for a Nats' pitcher, and he stands at least a passing chance of going 6 ... but I'd be lying if he doesn't spend the entire outing scaring the hell out of me. If you believe that the Bodes talk straightened him out, then good for you; I'd place it more on Randy St. Claire myself. Fittingly enough, this grade could bounce either way. Another bad outing puts him somewhere in the D range and another good outing puts it at C+ or so. Still scared, though.

Matt Chico (D)
He gets a small pass over Patterson because we expected him to suck. He's also thrown (.1) more innings. Still looks kind of lost out there, though.

Jerome Williams (F)
Human gas can! I'm surprised, really; I figured he'd be good for a 5.something ERA. It's still possible, but he may be doing that in Columbus.

So the question now is this: who else is better than these guys? I have no idea. Check Columbus, maybe; Billy Traber? Tim Redding? Joel Hanrahan? Maybe. Would they be any better than Williams, Chico, or (god forbid) Patterson? Probably not too much so, but I doubt they could be that much worse.

Better Late than Never: a Phillies Preview

Current season series record: 1-1 (last series: 1-1 ... duh.)

Probable starters for the series can be found here.

Well, so much for not being last in the NL. Bombing the last two in Florida will do that, and moreso when the team looks like it broke out the early-season style beatdowns. Still, the Phils aren't the Marlins (and does that sentence look weird to type); they haven't demonstrated a consistent ability to be ...well, good. Granted, it's not like the Marlins are a bunch of world-beaters, but the Phils have yet to get it going - hopefully that'll hold off for a few days!

There's not a ton here that's different from what it was last week; Charlie Manuel is still insane, Brett Myers is still not starting, Cole Hamels isn't injured (yet?). The Phils do throw a couple of lefties in the series: Moyer on Tuesday and Hamels on Thursday. In between is the slated start of Shawn Hill (more on that in a minute) and Jon Lieber.

Hill's start is only slated; there's no guarantee yet he'll be able to make it, thanks to a bad baserunning call this weekend. That in turn resulted in a strained forearm to his non-pitching arm (you can breathe again); this is a fantastic summary of what happened. If he goes, then the Nats have a great shot of winning ...well, one. I'm not sure they don't get swept here. It doesn't hurt that he goes against new rotation addition Jon Lieber.

So ...yeah. Sweep? Maybe. I don't quite think it's going to be that bad, but I think it could get ugly quickly. To say I was confident in the Nats' chances at this point would be pretty direct folly. I don't have much reason for that beyond reading about the ugly performances this weekend - the less said about them, the better - but I'm not sold they'll immediately rebound, either. Let's hope I'm wrong.

Quick Hit

Can't post very long, but I'm wondering if Scott Olsen's healthy. It seems surprising that a guy who's as good a pitcher as he is isn't doing better this season. I'm doubly surprised that the not-very-good-against-lefites Nats offense was able to put 10 hits on him in 5 innings.

Kudos to the bullpen, although I'm also a little concerned about the extra-innings workload. There's not a ton of talent there - we know that - but again, there's not a ton of talent in the rotation either, and there's no guarantee that the rotation will pitch a ton of 6-7 inning starts. At least Shawn Hill had his second quality start this season; I'm ready to anoint him the staff ace, if nobody else is. Oddly, this time the breakdown in the bullpen was due to Rauch and Cordero; we've seen this before from Cordero, but Rauch ...well, that's a little odd. My guess / hope is it's just a momentary blip.

Still, we got our win; if we can get another one in the next two games, that's just gravy at this point.

White Rabbit Alert

So - yeah, once again I'm late, once again I missed yesterday's game. Fortunately, it would seem yesterday's starter - the one, the only John Patterson - missed it too. Presumably his eyelids were stopped up. Either way, he was good for 4 innings and 80 pitches of suspect ball with suspect movement, and ...eh, I'll write more about him later. For now, this sums up my feelings on it.

Anyway, we're facing the Marlins this weekend - not the first time either. We all remember the "performance" in the first series of the season, as much as we'd rather not. Blame the craptastic performances across the board - bad pitching, bad hitting, bad injuries, you name it. The series was bailed out from total uselessness thanks to Jorge Julio, who's since on gone on the DL with acute suckitis. Now the Nats travel to Florida - why should it be any better?

For starters, the team is better; the pitching can pass for mediocre on a good day, and the hitting is starting to show signs of life. True, Zimmerman has yet to really come to life, but that won't last. Lopez is starting to hit, and Snelling is fine as an 8 hitter in a full-time role.

Hill's the Nats' best starter and he's in the series. Chico and Williams are both works in progress at this point, but Chico has at least faced the Marlins this season. He actually didn't do badly; blame the defense. It'll be interesting to see if he does any better this time around, especially given his recent struggles.

Honestly, I'm not expecting much. There's a reason for the Nats to win each game (Hill on Friday, Chico's defense waking up, Mitre kind of sucks), but 1-2 may be the best we can hope for. I hope I'm wrong, and not in an "hey, we were outscored 123-0" kind of way.

With a Little Bit of Hope

Well. This won't be the first opportunity this season the Nats have for a split (thanks, rainouts!), but it will be the first opportunity they have to win both games of a 2-game series. If you would've told me the first win would've come in a 13-inning affair that had the kind of bullpen line where D'Angelo Jimenez was the next pitcher in line, I'm not sure I would have believed you.

Once again, I can't really speak much to the game quality; I had to leave shortly after Eaton's double off the wall, which means - among other things - I totally missed the comeback and lead in the bottom of the 2nd and 3rd. I think this puts the Nats at 3-1 at games I can't follow. Good news: I can't follow today's game, either.

Bergmann was ...well, Bergmann. When he's on, he's - at best - effectively wild. Other people have said this already, but he's starting to remind me of Oliver Perez, just without the talent. This latest start gives him 14 Ks in the last 12.1 innings against only 5 walks, which is good. However, since Jason Voorhees made the first start, that not-bad ratio is actually 15 K / 11 BB, which blows. If we get more Bergmann starts, then there's a shot of respectability. Personally, I kind of doubt it; I expect Voorhees to show up shortly.

Saul Rivera picked up a hold while allowing 2 hits in 0.0 IP; good job, Saul! Way to allow those inherited runners to score!

Aside from that, there are a few things to take away from the game:
- Zimm can still play D; he turned a fantastic DP in the 12th that ...well, it probably didn't kill a rally, but since he was the pivot man, being able to whip it across the diamond to nail Howard for the second part of the DP was impressive. Now, factor in that he was playing basically out of position and that throw came from second with a guy bearing down on him - I'm impressed. He went 1-for-6, but that play alone will get a pass.
- It was All Hands Must Go night in the bullpen; everyone got some work. Bad performers of the night were the aforementioned Saul Rivera and Chad Cordero. Does he have the yips early? Hopefully this is just a phase. Still, the fact that the bullpen threw 5 scoreless innings (although Jesus Colome "scattered" a hit and 3 walks in 1.2 IP) shouldn't be overlooked.
- Brian Schneider hit a HR! He went 2-for-6 with 4 LOB, not great - but he's coming around, maybe. Maybe?
- Converted reliever Brett Myers allowed 2 hits in one inning with a K. No word if he uncorked a "wild pitch" and hit Charlie Manuel in the head.

First pitch at 1:05 today; staff "ace" John Patterson goes against Jamie Moyer. I couldn't advocate skipping work, but Gameday Audio is dirt cheap if you want to go that route.

I'm a Bad Fan, Vol. 1,482

So - if you totally revamp your blog to talking about the Nats, and then the first thing you do after doing that is miss the first game, ....well, you'd be me. It's not entirely my fault; I had to stay late at work. By the time work was done, so was the game, and the Braves walked away with a 6-4 win.

This was a hybrid of both the incredibly early-season struggles the Nats had (let's fall behind before we come up to bat!) and the slightly-more-recent ability to generate offense (the winning run was on base as late as the 7th inning). By the time the first was over, the Braves had sent 8 guys to the plate and Jerome Williams had pitched 36 pitches, and I'm left to believe that the McCann walk was of the unintentional intentional variety.

After that, it was more of the Nats' early-season woes; Smoltz sent down the side in order the first two innings before Chris Snelling worked out a walk in the third, coming around to score thanks to a sacrifice and FLop's infield single + throwing error.

Fast-forward to the bottom of the 7th (current score: 5-2). Once again, another rally was started by a Schneider non-hit followed by Snelling coming up big, and FLop contributing another RBI. It's good to see this from FLop, who's had a rough go of it early on. Still, two runs scored, and with Kearns at second, Zimm struck out and Meathook flied out. End of rally, end of game; Rafael Soriano and Bob Wickman closed the door. Another day, another game.

Aside from that, some other minor notes:
- FLop finally seems to be warming up; he's 6 for his last 14 with a stolen base (and a CS).
- Snelling continues his semi-intermittent hitting pace (5 for his last 10 if you ignore Monday's game). As bats in the number 8 hole go, you could do a lot worse.
- Scheider continued his odd pattern of getting critical non-hits, igniting a rally in the 7th. A double-switch going in the top of the 7th turned Schnieder into the de facto leadoff hitter, knocking Robert Fick out of the game.
- Speaking of Fick ... in the 6 spot? I'm a big fan of Acta, but I don't get it. Eh, he'll get a pass on this from me for now.


In other news, the Kory Casto experiement is on hold; he's been sent back down to Columbus. Not too surprising; as I mentioned before, Snelling has done a damn fine job hitting that far down in the order, and I'm personally wondering when he'd move up to hit 7th (or 6th!). Casto needs the everyday PT, which he wasn't going to get with the big club.

On the other hand, this is going to create some interesting debate as to who should start when Logan comes back from the DL with Snelling and Church hitting well.

It's a rebirth!

Well, that second option I was talking over has actually come through. As a result, two things are going to happen here:

1 - all (both) of my smaller focused posts are going to move to a different site. I'll certainly crosslink it when the first article goes up there, although I don't know when that'll be.
2 - this blog will actually be transformed. I figure that since I follow the Nats anyway, I might as well go ahead and change it over into a Nats-focused blog with respect to its baseball content. Now, that's not going to be the case for the other sports; college football will still be here (I need to talk to the other guy to make sure that he's up for it next year, too), and I'll probably throw some college basketball posts on here during the dead zone from January to March.

I'd make a joke about content here, but with 2 updates in the past 2 days, I think I'm due for a month's vacation at this rate, right?

Ignore the dust in here

My apologies in advance; I'm going to be revamping the blog layout over the next few days. There won't be any difference in content - make your own joke - but the appearance will be changing. I don't know what it'll change to yet - just something I like more. I'd expect a reduction in the font size, maybe a widening of the text box so there's not as much dead space. Link update, perhaps.

There may be a secondary, much bigger change coming in the next couple of weeks; I'll update you again if that's the case.

One Guy Turbo-Previews the Final Four

First off, check out the regional previews if you haven't yet: South, East, Midwest, and West.

Our F4 participants:
South - (1) Ohio State
East - (2) Georgetown
Midwest - (1) Florida
West - (2) UCLA

Out at F4:
(2) Georgetown, (1) Florida
I can't pick a repeat champion, which is why I have to bounce Florida here. It's nothing personal. Also, I don't think Georgetown can handle Oden inside and Conley outside, although the Hoyas do have a strong guard presence.

Just Missing the Title
(1) Ohio State
Two rules in play here:
1 - the trendy pick never wins the title, it seems
2 - it's not like UCLA has an inside presence for Oden to shut down
In addition, remember that UCLA bit it to lose their 1 seed, so it's not like it should be too surprising here.

Your (more than likely not) National Champion: (2) UCLA

One Guy Turbo-Previews the West Division

Almost home! At least for me. Rest assured that I'm putting just as much thought into the West division as I am any other division (read: none at all).

1st Round Outs
(16s) Niagara / Florida A&M, (15) Weber State, (14) Wright State, (13) Holy Cross, (12) Illinois
Really, I'm just picking on the States here. And trying to piss off Simmons, even though we're using a very similar format for this. I should note that I did try to write semi-extensive team capsules, then stopped after doing 1 because:
1 - they were taking about an hour, at least
2 - there are at least equal ones online
I don't feel too broken up about it. Also, Illinois would've taken the Last Major Conference Team In title were it not for Arkansas. Stupid Arkansas.

(8) Kentucky, (7) Indiana, (6) Duke
Don't call it an upset. Or upsets, whatever. Kentucky hasn't been doing anything all season, Gonzaga's good for a win if they're below a 7 seed, and Duke may be the schauenfreude winner of the tourney.

2nd Round Outs
(11) VCU, (10) Gonzaga, (9) Villanova
Weeding out the chaff here - although the Zags will certainly keep it close against UCLA. I think.

(4) Southern Illinois
Losing just to make sure that no region gets all their top seeds through to the Sweet 16.

Sweet 16 Outs
(5) Virginia Tech, (3) Pitt
Pitt was probably slightly overseeded, but they got here because they had to beat Wright State and VCU. Whoopee. Tech just goes down to a better team.

Just Missing the Final Four
(1) Kansas
This will be a minor shocker, I think, but I also think Kansas may be more tired than UCLA at this point. I love having conclusive, hard evidence that points to a Final Four participant, don't you?

Honestly, since it's not like anyone else has any real ideas on how to pick F4 contestants, I'm just trying winging it.

Out of the West: (2) UCLA

One Guy Turbo-Previews the Midwest Division

I'm on a roll. Why stop now? (Because nobody cares?) Shut up, I didn't ask you.

1st Round Outs
(16) Jackson St., (15) Texas A&M Corpus Christi, (14) Miami (OH), (10) Georgia Tech
To be fair, one of these teams is not like the rest (one of these teams is different. I'm loving the parentheticals today). Georgia Tech just got screwed by going up against an underseeded UNLV team.

(9) Purdue, (6) Notre Dame, (13) Davidson
All charter members of the "let's keep it close so it doesn't look like as much of a blowout" club. Oddly enough, Davidson may have the best shot of a victory out of these guys.

(5) Butler
A runaway winner of the "trendy 5-12 upset pick". Since this blog is all about the trend of not updating in any sort of consistent manner, it'd make total sense to go along with yet another trend. Viva la groupthink!

2nd Round Outs
(12) Old Dominion, (8) Arizona
Either a) not going to happen, period or b) too inconsistent on a night-to-night basis. They have the talent to pull off the upsets, but I don't think they'll happen. It should be noted I'm having a hard time picking winners in this division anywhere.

(2) Wisconsin, (3) Oregon
And this is the bracket that gets blown to hell for the Sweet 16. And no, I didn't actually predict both those upsets in mine, opting to say Oregon beat Winthrop so I could not have my bracket blown to shit by the end of the second round. But if these happen, you read it here first. Both of you.

Sweet 16 Outs
(11) Winthrop, (4) Maryland
This will be Florida's toughest game en route to Atlanta, and ...well, someone's gotta win the UNLV/Winthrop matchup. It's not like they can both be eliminated.

Just Missing the Final Four
(7) UNLV
You know how you pick winners just based on matchups, and then you end up with something weird like half your bracket looking like ass come the Sweet 16 so you have to pick the favorite to make the Final Four so you don't feel like as much of an idiot, only it takes you two rounds to clear out all the deadwood? Yeah, that's this pick.

Out of the Midwest: (1) Florida

One Guy Turbo-Previews the East Division

We've been through this once already. Let's continue on, shall we?

1st Round Outs
(16) Eastern Kentucky, (15) Belmont, (13) New Mexico St., (11) George Washington
Thanks for playing! Enjoy your complimentary tournament gear, and we'll see you next year.

(10) Texas Tech
Eliminated under the little-known "no way in hell am I picking a subpar team coached by Bob Knight" clause.

(8) Marquette
Sure?

(5) USC, (3) Washington St.
Know how one region always gets blown to hell in the first round, only to look normal by the Sweet 16? Here you are. Arkansas's not very good, but USC left skidmarks going in reverse so far - plus they weren't great. Washington St. plays at a snail's pace, which will play to Oral Roberts' strength. Plus, ORU has the whole veteran leadership thing.

But really, I just wanted to see if you were paying attention and demonstrate my obvious East Coast Bias. (~!)

2nd Round Outs
(14) Oral Roberts, (12) Arkansas
Thanks for blowing a bunch of people's brackets up! Here's your reward - bounced by Vandy and Texas, respectively.

(7) Boston College, (9) Michigan State
This may turn out to be the simplest Sweet 16 prediction.

Out in Sweet 16
(6) Vanderbilt
Doesn't have the horses to hang with Georgetown for 40 minutes - they're a solid team, but that won't get you too much further in the tourney at this point.

(4) Texas
The UNC / Texas game is the toughest for me (and a bunch of other people) to predict. However, I'm going to say this game will unfold very much like the Texas / Kansas game did last Sunday (and on the 2nd of March). I could very well be wrong about this - if I am, that'll be how the next game unfolds.

Just Missing the Final Four
(1) UNC
I have no real reason for this; it's not like I have this giant crush on all things Georgetown. I just don't think UNC can do it - maybe they're worn out from playing Texas, maybe Hansbrough can't go with his mask, maybe Roy Williams turns into a 6-foot chicken on the sidelines. Really, I don't know how Georgetown will get by here .... I just think they will.

From the East: (2) Georgetown

One Guy Turbo-Previews the South Division

Should've done this three days ago. Isn't that a running tradition with this blog, though? Anyway, I'll be doing this on which teams get eliminated when, in order of decreasing confidence.

Round 1 Outs
(16) Central Connecticut St., (15) North Texas, (14) Penn
These guys come straight out of the "no realistic chance" category.

(12) Long Beach State
Yeah, I'll admit this is part homerism. However, while they do shoot the 3 well, that's about it - their guards don't handle the ball particularly well and they don't have a ton of height. I think LBSU could beat up on almost any other 5 seed, but this was probably their worst matchup, as Tennessee does what they do, only better.

(11) Stanford, (10) Creighton
Like LBSU, both of these teams are talented enough to win a game. However, they also both have one major factor working against them:
Stanford - the game is going to basically be a home game for Louisville
Creighton - Nevada's going to get their main scorer back for this game, and what further complicates matters is Nevada's underseeded.

(8) BYU
Token minor upset (this bracket is looking like mostly chalk). It's an 8-9 game, and I don't normally research those games, so I'll go with the hot hand and pick Xavier to win here.

(13) Albany
The UVA/Albany game should be one of those scary not-quite-an-upset games where Albany ends up having a shot to win late, only blowing it. It's a good matchup for Albany - UVA is, among other things, mildly inconsistent and overseeded - but one edge Albany won't have on the Hoo is depth. They will have leadership.

2nd Round Outs
(9) Xavier, (4) Virginia
Thanks for playing. (And yes, let's hear it for homerism.) Xavier can't compete on the inside, Virginia can't compete with a team seeded where it should be seeded. This sets up a Tennessee / Ohio State rematch.

(7) Nevada
Maybe it's an unlucky bounce, but Memphis has enough in the tank to turn a close game into a 8- or 9-point win at this point in the tourney.

(3) Texas A&M
Yeah, I know - say what? A&M's a perfectly good team, but I'm worried about their postseason experience and that they'll basically be playing a road game. I do want to get on the record here and say that if Louisville loses this game, A&M will probably go to the Final Four (as it gets 2 in San Antonio after this, one against a Memphis team they should beat ....and one against - well, tell you in a minute.)

Out in Sweet 16
(6) Louisville
Memphis' path of getting the easiest route possible to the Final Four continues. It would've been better for them had Creighton won their first round game.

(5) Tennessee
Ah, thought I'd go for the Memphis / Tennessee rematch? I'd love to, I'm not going to deny it. However, Tennessee has almost no inside presence and also no answer at all for Oden. Lofton would need to score 35+ for the Vols to win the game - with the Smiths going for at least 15 each, and while I certainly wouldn't put it past him (and them), I think it ends here.

Just Missing the Final Four
(2) Memphis
Finally ran into a team that ....well, is good.

Coming from the South: (1) Ohio State

Texas / Kansas: Running Diary of the Big 12 Final

So why on earth am I doing a running diary of this game? There's a few reasons:
1 - Watching Kevin Durant play when he's on is incredible, and it's certainly worth writing about.
2 - Having not seen much of Kansas this year (boo on me for not following a title contender that closely), I wanted a record of how Kansas operates.
3 - After watching Texas blow a 12-point halftime lead at Kansas last week, I was curious to see how the game would unfold with more on the line. The answer: almost the exact same.

3:12: Texas opens with a steal, a Brandon Rush block on the other end, Texas offensive board, another Rush block, with yet a third block on the next Texas possession. This may be a recurring theme, even though Texas scored.

3:15: Durant hits a 3. He follows this up on the next posession by launching a 70-foot pass to the Texas cheerleaders - Kansas ball. He follows that up by hitting another 3. Durant 8, Kansas' Julian Wright 6. What other players?

3:17: First TV timeout. Durant looks sharp so far, Texas has dominated the glass early. It'll be a while before Rick Barnes forgets Durant plays for the Longhorns at this rate - at least 10 minutes. We learn Durant got the ball on 67% of the second half possessions in Texas' semifinal win over Oklahoma St., which seems both low (he's great) and high (that's still a ton). 10-6 Texas.

3:21: Texas' Token Tall White Guy (TTWG - name: Connor Atchley) hits a 2. 14-6 Texas, and we're looking a lot like last week already. Whoops, make that 17-6 Texas - Kansas calls time to stop the bleeding.

3:23: Kansas still can't buy a basket - Durant 9, Wright 6.

3:24 - I think Texas is up on the boards by about 10,000 - 2 right now. Durant 11, Kansas 6, and it's looking ugly.

3:26: Durant goes to the bench for a breather before the under 12 TV TO. Kansas responds with a 2-0 run to cut the lead to 21-8. Boy, it'd be nice if Texas kept that effort up for the entire game, wouldn't it? (Note: foreshadowing) KU's first task in coming back: outscore Durant, then worry about catching the entire team.

3:29: Video package of Big 12 games - three things omitted: 1 - Okla. St.'s horrid road performance (which will be why they don't get a bid), 2 - Texas eating it against KU in the second half, 3 - the Big 12 North (not counting Kansas).

3:31: Durant 14, KU 10.

3:32: KU with yet another block - about the only thing they're doing well so far. If Durant wasn't such a (pick your modifier: force, freak of nature) they'd have a shot at shutting him down, too. Durant 16, KU 10.

3:33: Kansas with yet another timeout - 27-10 Texas. Kansas needs to get on the boards, although since they've come back from worse than this (they did last week), I don't think they're despairing.

3:36: Durant 19, KU 10. Also, there's no such thing as a 10-point play - thanks, Fran Frischilla.

3:38: Kansas with a 3 to cut the Texas lead to ...32-13. We're under 8 now, and we got there by the TTWG stepping on the inbounds line after said 3. It'll be Kansas' ball again, and we're reaching the point where Durant will probably not see the ball again for the remainder of the half.

3:41: KU turnover. So much for that possession.

3:42: Sideline interview disclosure - Celtics' GM Danny Ainge was at the Texas game last night. That sound you heard was Bill Simmons screaming in glee.

3:44: Durant 22, KU 17. Oops.

3:45: Durant 22, KU 19. Comeback! Augustin with an airball - watch him jack up the next 6 shots.

3:46: Durant 22, KU 21. They're almost equaling Durant, but they're still down by 14. Texas really hasn't done much lately.

3:47: Texas calls TO. It's still 35-24 UT, but it's notable for a few reasons: Kansas has looked sharp, Durant hasn't seen the ball much, and somewhere in here Augustin picked up his second foul. Also, Kansas has finally outscored Durant.

3:48: Oops. Durant got a shot (finally) but was blocked; Mason gets the block and drives for 2, making it 37-24 Texas. Kansas is still starting to come around, even counting that last possession.

3:51: Fun times - on ESPN's online broadcast, you can occasionally catch stuff on the announcers' mics that the regular viewers won't get.

3:53: Under 3 minutes - Augustin has been out since about 6 minutes to go. Backtracking a bit, that'd be somewhere around 3:44 in realtime, which is not coincedentally when Kansas started to go on their run. Texas is looking bad offensively.

3:54: Durant steps on the line - 2nd Texas turnover in as many posessions. Durant seems reluctant to take charge offensively, even though the guys who taking charge (Justin Mason, A. J. Abrams, Damion James) shouldn't be.

3:56: Yet another Texas TO - technically Durant's fault, but Mason really shouldn't go into a windup before launching a 120 mph pass at Durant's chest.

3:58: We close the first half like we started it - with a Kansas block. At the half, it's 39-34 UT, and it absolutely shouldn't be that close. Augustin was out and Durant didn't do anything once Augustin left the game.

4:18: After a spirited KU sequence, Sasha Kaun goes down hard, elbowed in the face by James and then falling 9 feet onto his back. Rough time, but he's fine.

4:19: Kansas ends the comedy of errors (no, I didn't write down what they were - yes, that's stupid) with a 3.

4:20: Darrell Arthur goes down hard after an Augustin drive (no foul on either end). Durant? MIA.

4:21: Check that, he just got a Wade-style foul called in his favor. He respondes by charging on the next possession - even though that one was a blocking foul.

4:25: Odd sequence with a ton of bad shots, outlet passes, and dribble drives. Exciting, but it'd be nice if they scored. Durant draws another foul to take us into the first TV TO. Kansas is starting to have some serious fouling issues. 49-42 Texas.

4:28: Durant hits both FTs to go to 24 on the afternoon.

4:30: 2nd half has been very sloppy - of course, as soon as I write that, KU (someone) dishes a nice pass to Wright for the slam.

4:31: Durant's MIA again - when TTWG has to slam it, it's gonna be a long half. 53-49 Texas.

4:32: Announcers are calling out Barnes for being too quiet on the sidelines (it should be noted that Frischilla calls him out, then backtracks so hastily he leaves skid marks) - almost as if he does nothing other than stand around and watch his team blow late leads. Meanwhile, Bill Self has a plan for Durant: beat the hell out of him. Wright picks up his 4th foul.

4:35: Yet another foul on KU at the 11:54 mark - 55-52 Texas, and I'm wondering a few things right now:
1 - will Durant take over at some point? Right now, he's content with getting fouled and letting Abrams and James take bad 15-footers.
2 - will Kansas lose some key players to fouls?
3 - will the "hack the phenom" strategy work? Kansas is damn close.

4:39: Only hot player on the court right now: Sherron Collins. 55-54 Texas.

4:40: Durant answers with a fallaway jumper. Glad to see you again! He's taken the last 2 - no, 3 - shots. 1/3.

4:45: Craig Winder (who? Texas' only senior) hits 1 out of 2 FTs. 58-56 Texas.

4:46: Darnell Jackson picks up his fourth foul - that's two Jayhawks with 4 now. Durant with a lob layup on a pass from James - Durant's got 30 now.

4:47: Brandon Rush with a block - just kidding, he hit a 3. Durant tries a 3 at the other end but misses, Kaun with a great ball recovery, leading to a foul on the Chalmers drive to take us to the under 8 TV TO. 60-59 Texas.

4:51: 61-60 Kansas! Chalmers hits both of them, and Kansas gets their first lead since it was 4-2.

4:52: I've been slagging on Durant for not being more involved, but I haven't given Brandon Rush nearly enough credit, who's played well on both ends of the court, especially defensively. He picks off a pass which leads to another Texas foul - 63-60 Kansas.

4:55: Abrams with a rushed (missed) 3, Collins with a miss on a drive, James with a turnover on a Texas possession that never gets on track, Chalmers with a charge - 4 on him now, too. Feel the excitement! Big 12 basketball!

4:56: Rush hits a couple of FTs to push the lead to 67-62 Kansas - at just under 6 minutes left, we'll be seeing a lot more of that the rest of the way.

4:58: Collins with an awesome drive and reverse layup. Augustin gets tied up - Texas uses their arrow. 69-65 Kansas.

5:02: Durant called for a push - 69-66 Kansas still. Exciting.

5:06: Durant with the last 5 Texas points and a block on the other end - tie game @ 71. 2:30 left. About time Durant started to step up.

5:07: Abrams with a steal, Winder with a putback, Self with a TO. Texas up by 2.

5:08: Dear lord. You'll read about this elsewhere, I'm sure, but Jackson went to save the ball and basically threw it at the backboard - only it bounced off the rim straight to Chalmers, who then proceeds to hit a 3-point play.

5:09: Durant draws yet another foul, and is now to 37 points on the day (1:42 left). Texas by 1, 75-74.

5:11: Abrams with a 3. That's 78-74 Texas with 1:01 left, and Kansas is in trouble ... although if I could choose to be down 4 to any Top-15 team with a minute left, it'd be Texas.

5:16: Winder hits 1 of 2 FTs again, making it 79-76 Texas. For some reason here, UT calls a timeout with 21.6s left. I don't get this; Kansas has used all their timeouts, you know they're going for a three here - why let Self have time to draw up a play?

5:18: Sure enough, Chalmers hits a 3! Tied at 78 with 13.8s left, and UT calls time again. Not surprisingly, they're setting up something for Durant, although my previous wondering of why on earth you'd call time at 21.6s left seems valid now.

5:20: Durant misses. We're going to OT. ESPN celebrates by running the same video package they ran in the first half. Big 12 basketball! 6 exciting games all year!

5:23: James shows his clutchness by getting fouled, missing a bunny, then missing both FTs. Go Texas! As a contrast, Wright nails a jumper making it 81-79 Kansas.

5:25: Superintendent Chalmers fouls out (eh, it was bound to happen) after fouling Abrams on a 3 (okay, Chalmers is an idiot). He gets bailed out as Abrams only makes 2 of 3, but we're still tied.

5:27: Kansas and Texas open up a joint bricklaying venture, and James - who's had an awesome OT already - dribbles the ball off his foot out of bounds.

5:28: Russell Robinson with a J to push it to 83-81 Kansas.

5:29: Foul on Durant after not touching the ball on the previous possession. 84-81 Kansas.

5:30: Augustin's 3 is blocked (Rush? not sure). Missed J @ KU's end, still 84-81. Rush has about 85 blocks today. 22.4s left.

5:34: Augustin drives on Jackson - but Jackson blocks it to himself! Texas has to foul here, and Bill Russell is invoked - cleanup on Bill Simmons' couch. Cleanup on the couch.

5:35: Abrams hits a 3! 86-84 Kansas, 8.3s left. Durant? Who?

5:36: Kudos to Fran for calling a diamond press on Texas's part, which is exactly what happens. Robinson (67% FT) fouled, but hits both. 88-84 Kansas, and they use their last TO.

5:40: Durant misses a 3, Kansas runs out the clock. 88-84 is the final.

So what did we learn about those three questions way up at the beginning of this post?
1 - Durant was absolutely on at the beginning of the game, but a lot of the offense wasn't run through him later on. What didn't help matters was Rush doing a great job on him in the second half and some poor looks. Possible sign of concern here: is he turning it off for periods of time?
2 - Kansas looks damn good right now; their D kept them in the game early, and they've got a very balanced scoring attack. Kudos on the blocks, too.
3 - I kind of already answered this at the beginning anyway, but there were a few reasons:
A) James and Abrams seem to enjoy shooting the ball, even when they shouldn't. James got the ball way too often in OT, and while I didn't keep a good record of it, didn't get many good looks at the basket at all during the game.
B) Not having Augustin in hurt; I was talking with the other contributor here yesterday, and we both decided that even after Augustin picked up his second foul in the first half, you leave him in the game and tell him, "Look, play soft on D, but run the offense. We need you out there to make sure nobody goes insane. We'll rotate toward you on D if we need to." Abrams, James, etc. can't run the offense.
C) An extension of the first two reasons - youth. Augustin and Durant are the only guys that don't really play like freshmen.

Remember this game when you're staring at that Texas / UNC matchup.

The cost of "Veteran Presense" - when it's not really needed.

There's a long-held belief in baseball that the idea of having veteran presence on a team is inherently valuable. It makes sense in theory - after all, if you have a group of talented youngsters, it can at worst be useful to bring in a guy that's been there before. Whether he's acting as an example for the kids or telling them what they should be doing, there's at least a moderately proveable correlation here.

However, like any idea when carried to extremes, it quickly falls apart. Case in point? Ramon Ortiz signing with the Twins for $3.1 million. There's a fine line between "bringing in helpful veterans" and "squeleching the youngsters". The Twins, for those unfamiliar with the organization, have a pretty good group of young pitching. There's the obvious one (Johan Santana), the even younger lefty (Francisco Liriano), and there's a host of young righties (Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, Scott Baker) that I can all recall off the top of my head. That's enough for a very, very young rotation - and I can understand wanting a guy who's had more than, oh, 25 big-league starts in there. That's doubly true given Liriano's likelihood of missing the 2007 season with surger and rehab.

However, the Twins already have Carlos Silva. Silva's not great - his calling card is excellent control, and over the course of his career he's been about average (101 ERA+). Again, that's not great, but when you have the talent that the Twins do, you would prefer it if the vets largely stay out of the way, right? That's what Silva does - and he's not a great player, don't make the mistake of thinking I'm saying that. He's either average or slightly below average (if you like your starters to strike people out, he's not your guy). So if we replace Liriano with Silva, now we have a rotation that looks something like:

Santana, Bonser, Silva, Garza, Baker

That's not bad. It's young, cheap, and effective. When you're operating on a shoestring budget, it's as good as gold to find that kind of rotation.

So now we add Ramon Ortiz to the mix. What's he offer? Really, not a whole hell of a lot. Think a worse version of Silva (93 ERA+) that will eat about 190 innings below league average. Great. That's useful if you're going to be looking at an innings shortage. However, the Twins aren't going to need that - they have at least 5 pitchers (already mentioned), plus a few other arms in AAA that they could call up who would be much cheaper than Ortiz. They'd probably be less effective, but whatever.

Basically, what it boils down to is Scott Baker v. Ramon Ortiz. Now, I'll admit I'm biased here for two reasons:

1 - I saw Scott Baker shut down the Durham Bulls for 8 1/3 innings two years ago, so that's my memory there.
2 - I saw Ramon Ortiz suck last year for the Nats.

So, let's compare. Scott Baker has a career ERA+ of 86 - worse than Ortiz, and Baker sucked last year (ERA+ of 70). However, Ortiz wasn't much better last year (ERA+ of 79 in a ton more innings) - and when coupled with 2005, that's about 350 innings of 81 ERA+ ball, give or take. That's worth about $2.7 million more than Baker? Never mind that Ortiz is now past the peak age for a pitcher and will probably decline from hideous to god-awful here in the next couple of years - plus he's losing the RFK effect. Baker, meanwhile, will be 25 this year (still well in his growth phase). Why not give him the chance? At worst, he'll do what he did last year - which wasn't much worse than Ortiz's effort - but the odds seem to speak against that. At the worst, he's cheaper, which leaves more room to sign Santana to a long-term extension. I don't think any Twin fan would argue with that.

Anyway, the Twins' rotation now looks something like:

Santana, Bonser, Silva, Ortiz, Garza

And they're looking at signing Bruce Chen. If they do, you can repeat the above argument but put Matt Garza's name in place of Baker's. Let's hear it for Terry Ryan.

Washington Nationals 2k7: Hide the Women and Children

First off, I'll be honest here - I'm a huge fan of the Nationals, have been since they were the Expos back in '94. I've been following them for over half my life, and this might be one of the worst teams they've fielded. You know it's bad when you're considering a 95-loss season a success. Still, I can't help but follow them. The rest of this post will be dedicated to them, mostly as an analysis of the team for 2007 (like last year, I plan on doing this again this season; unlike last year, I'm starting in January) but also as a study for when truly bad teams have little to play for.

Infield & Catching
1st Base
Nick Johnson will play first - when he's healthy. Unfortunately, he won't be healthy to start the season thanks to recovery from fractured right femur and subsequent surgery (and surgery to fix the previous surgery), which means the Nats will be forced to turn elsewhere. It's likely 27-year-old-but-still-propect Larry Broadway will snatch up most of the early season at-bats until Johnson is healthy. When healthy, NJ provides great on-base skills, good power, and plus defense at first. Broadway has a passable skill set, but the biggest knock against him is that he's a little old to be getting his first shot at big-league playing time at 27. He'll function as a cheap stopgap until NJ returns to health - unless he performs well. Then he'll function as a cheap stopgap and provoke controversy when NJ gets healthy.

2nd Base
Thanks to the Vidro trade (and I do mean thanks - thanks, Bavasi!), Felipe Lopez will slide over from short to play 2nd on an everyday basis. His offensive skills are certainly much improved from where they were - on some level. If he's allowed to run, he'll certainly do so, but he struggled to show any real semblance of power once he was traded to the Nats. Defensively, he's not much to call home about, but he's better than (past a diving) Vidro, which has to count for something. His backup will be Bernie Castro, whose main attributes are 1) he's young and 2) he's cheap. Sense a trend yet?

Shortstop
The job is Cristian Guzman's. And when I say that it's his job, I mean that it's his - not even his to lose, really. If he was going to lose his job, that would've been back in 2005 back when he was putting up 456 ABs of .219 BA. He was out all of last year with a torn labrum, but looks to be back and healthy - don't celebrate too much. Offensively, there's really not much there - if you're lucky, you'll get a pedestrian offensive shortstop who'd be pretty good as long as we're talking 1985 or so. Defensively? Around average as well, maybe slightly worse. We'll see what it looks like, but still. Yech.

Third Base
It's tough for most Nats fans not to be happy talking about Ryan Zimmerman - and on this hellhole of a team, you can't blame them much. He's still young (22), but he's above-average defensively already and may provoke Scott Rolen comparisons before too long. Unfortunately, he may also be the third-best 3B in the division behind David Wright and Miguel Cabrera, but that's not his fault. He's still - at worst - above average in a league stacked with 3Bs, and at this point the sky's the limit for him.

Catcher
Brian Schneider had what seemed like a rough year at the plate, especially with his power. However, his power's really been decreasing over the last 4-5 years (check out his doubles and HR) and unless that returns he'll basically be a better defensive version of Guzman. That's normally scary enough to begin with, but if you already have the original Guz.... that's when problems start. Jesus Flores - a Rule V pick from the Mets - will back up. Not terrible, I guess. I mean, he's a backup C that will probably start 20-30 games or so. Whatever, he won't make or break the season, and he can't really perform much worse at the plate than Brandon Watson did last year. Whoopee.

Outfielders
Right Field
Austin Kearns will be the everyday RF, and as long as he's healthy he should provide about league-average production offensively. Defensively, he's above average - one of the better defenders in the NL. He hasn't been injured in two years, but I still remember his injury-plagued seasons before then. I'm probably unfairly biased with regard to his health; he'll be at worst adequate protection for Zimmerman and at least a small ray of offensive hope before the lineup plunges into the black abyss.

Center Field
The job's Nook Logan's. Why it's Logan's is anybody's guess, however. He brings a ton of speed and a hideous skill set beyond that - no average, no power, below average fielding. Sounds good enough for me, right? Evidently it's good enough for the Nats. Meanwhile, Ryan Church - who was perfectly fine last year but ran over Bodes' dog coming out of the parking lot on the first day of Spring Training - will get relegated to a backup role here. Alex Escobar is in the mix and will see PT, but probably not at the outset. Will produce when healthy, which is anybody's guess.

Left Field
This is an interesting case, and I think we're going to need to watch this closely (well, as closely as we can get with this team) once Spring Training gets underway. Right now it looks like Kory Casto's job (according to the Nats' official depth chart), but recent arrival Chris Snelling may play there as well. Snelling is like Escobar in one important way; chronically injured. He's also chronically out of options and on the 40-man roster, which would lead me to think he's getting PT. Both Escobar and Church are on the depth chart here too, although I'd say it's more than likely this will shake out over ST. Personal guess? Snelling and Escobar will play until they get injured, then Casto will get the job.

Bench Players
There's some weird NRIs out there - Tony Womack, Travis Lee, etc. It's certainly not surprising if they end up on the big-league team when they break camp. Same for D'Angelo Jimenez. Aside from them, there's the usual fare; we've already talked about Larry Broadway and I mentioned Castro a while ago, and they're very likely to break with the Nats. The outfield bench is going to mostly consist of some combination of whomever isn't playing in the OF among all those CF/RF candidates (Logan, Church, Snelling, Casto, and Escobar, for those of you attempting to score at home). Rule V pick Jesus Flores has been mentioned already. That'll just about cover it - there's some interesting potential here, but it's more than likely it won't really amount to anything. Don't get too excited.

Starting Pitching
Ye gods, this is when the fun begins. I worked this out a while ago, but it still stands. Here's your possibilities.

John Patterson - obviously the ace when healthy. The keyword here: healthy. Averaged about 80 days on the DL over the last 3 years (yes, it's biased because of 2006), so breaking that out over a season.... that's probably about 20 starts.
Tim Redding - should make the club out of ST, and among Nats circles that I'm a part of, he's been one of those "quietly good signings". Of course, he's also been the only signing so far. If healthy, they'll probably toss him out there every 5th day.
Billy Traber - for some reason he's fallen out of favor with Nats management, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in the bullpen for most/all of the season. He may end up in Rauch's role from 2006. (Lord knows they'll need bullpen arms anyway.)
Chris Michilak - is this guy old? I haven't found any mention of him in the rotation anywhere beyond Rotoworld. Even the Nats don't have him on the 40-man roster.
Jason Bergmann - see Traber.
Mike O'Connor - probably a default #3. Unspectacular, but he's ML-serviceable if he keeps his walk rate down and stays healthy. Look for 20-25 starts, as ...really, who else are they going to bring up? (note: will not be ready for Spring Training)
Shawn Hill - better skill set than O'Connor, but will probably end up as #4. See above.
Joel Hanrahan - probably won't open the season in the rotation, and he definitely won't if a couple of other things happen (more on that in a minute). If and when injuries strike, he's ...eh, 2nd or 3rd in line to get starts, I guess. Will flirt with 15 starts.
Ramon Ortiz - the Nats just made an offer to him, and since I'm guessing teams aren't knocking down his door for 200 innings of 6.00 ERA ball, he'll probably sign with the Nats. I'd expect slightly better, but not by much.
Jason Simontacchi - see Hanrahan.

In addition, the Nats have made offers to Ortiz, Armas, Steve Trachsel, Jorge Sosa, and Jerome Williams. Of those, if *any* of them sign they'll be in the rotation. Obviously Armas and Trachsel have injury concerns attached to them; I'd only remotely consider Williams out of that crew. Tomo Ohka is still floating around, too.

A couple of other names I've heard thrown around but haven't seen here yet:

Beltran Perez - will fill the 5th spot?
Matt Chico - one of the prospects (hey, this is the Nats system, he's a prospect) acquired in the Livan deal. Since the Kasten Plan revolves around not spending a lot of ML-level money this season, Chico in the majors wouldn't surprise me a lot. Is he ready? No. But the Nats could easily throw him out there for 20 starts and let him mature on his own - and leave it to Randy St. Claire to make sure his psyche stays intact.

A rough guess on the number of starts everyone will make:
25+:
Ortiz, Sosa, Williams, Ohka (if any of them sign with the Nats)
Redding
20+:
Patterson, Armas, Trachsel (sign / health)
O'Connor, Hill, Redding
15+:
Simontacchi, Hanrahan, Chico, Perez

That really doesn't help a whole lot, but it's at least a rough attempt to work out who they'll be throwing up to pitch.

Bullpen
Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch will do at least a passable job of protecting the 6 leads they get all season. (Sorry, excessive pessimism.) Aside from them, there's enough spare rotation fodder and discarded parts to put together a decent bullpen, I'd guess. Bergmann and Traber will probably end up here, and it remains to be seen if Ryan Wagner can stand a chance of living up to any of his potential. First step: stop allowing baserunners to score way above the league average. Emilio Fruto was the other guy in the Vidro trade, and he did quite well in moving from AA to AAA last year. Nothing special in absolute terms, but he'd be a reliable option here. Luis Ayala and Saul Rivera will probably show up, maybe Micah Bowie.

Bottom Line
Don't expect much. The bullpen shouldn't be horrid, the infield won't be terrible when healthy, and the outfield will at least have 1 1/2 quality players most days. However, there's really only half a lineup there (Lopez, Zimmerman, Johnson, Kearns, maybe Church/Snelling/Escobar when healthy and if you're generous) with the rest of it being either bad or abysmal, and good luck trying to figure out who the hell is going to start. That alone will doom the Nats to 100 losses - if they're lucky, 95.