For the past few years, the BCS has proven little by little that a playoff is required to choose the real national champion. This year has been no different - in fact the outcome of this year maybe the most dramatic as the number of teams with one losses to unranked teams is greater than it has ever been in the history of the BCS.
Why is this year so different? Because every single team in the title hunt has been upset by an unranked team. It means that every "deserving" champion lost a game that they should have won. That last sentence means everything, because in College Football you don't lose a game you should have won and go to the NC game. In fact, it's fairly ludicrous that it will happen that way this year.
And as James mentioned - the Big 12, Pac 10, and SEC all have more than 2 teams in the top 16, which means numerous bids will go to lower rankings. That in itself is a shame, as you won't get to see the best teams in the prime matchups.
Let's go through the list:
#1 LSU - is the only top ranked team to lose to a ranked opponent (Kentucky) and otherwise defeated 5 other ranked teams during this season. In the current BCS system, this is the only team "deserving" of an NC trip, as long as they win out (adding a victory over one more ranked opponent).
#2 Kansas - is the only second ranked team who is likely to fall in the next couple of weeks. The curse of the #2 is very real this year... and their next opponent Missouri is fearfully accurate on offense. Should they win next week, AND win the Big 12 CG, then they will be deserving of the NC game.
#3 West Virginia - They lost to a ranked opponent at the time, South Florida. However, you look at what happened to South Florida after that game, you can see that WVU should have won that game. They escaped Cincinnati, and will likely do the business against UConn, but they are definitely not deserving of an NC run in our current system, but they deserve a chance to prove it in a playoff.
#4 Missouri - The final weeks will show what they're made of. Their only loss was to a surging Oklahoma team... and even then it was a game that they very well could have won. If they beat Kansas and win the B12 CG, they will be more deserving of playing for the NC game than West Virginia.
#5 Ohio State - You can't lose to an unranked Illinois team and be in consideration for the NC game in the current system. However, they didn't fall too far since Illinois had previously been ranked and is ranked again. They will match up well with pretty much any of the top 10 teams, and with their solid defense they could be hard to beat in a playoff. However, they're going to the Rose Bowl.
#6 Arizona State - needs to win this coming Saturday against USC to play Ohio State in what will be a repeat of 1996 Rose Bowl. In fact, it's the only win they need to win the Pac-10, however it's not as easy as it looks. USC has been silent the past few weeks but they've done their job.
#7 Georgia - They have 2 conference losses, to Tennessee and South Carolina. The latter they should have won - and had they done so they would be higher in the rankings. Once again, the game against the 'Cocks was a game they should have won... and the blowout that Tennessee gave them is an embarrassment. They are, however, the highest ranked 2-loss team.
#8 Virginia Tech - when you have a quality loss to the top ranked team in the nation, and then lose a heartbreaker to the then #2 team in the nation, one would think they would be higher than this... however the latter game was a game in which they had been in control of for 57 minutes. They won't play prevent again, I'm sure of that.
So in my playoff picture with currently top ranked teams, here's how it would go:
Dec 22: Playoff weekend #1
LSU vs Va Tech - LSU win
Kansas vs Georgia - Georgia win
ASU vs WVU - WVU win
Mizzou vs OSU - man, this one's hard to call but I'm rooting for the Bucks.
Dec 29th: Playoff weekend #2
LSU vs Georgia - What should have been the SEC CG, LSU win.
WVU vs OSU - The defense shuts down slaton, but can't contain White. WVU wins, barely.
Jan 5th: Championship game
WVU vs LSU - the Tigers' defense wakes up and Dorsey clogs the middle. Perriloux and Flynn have their way with the untested WVU defense. LSU wins.
Now doesn't that sound a lot more compelling than the current system that we've got?!?
Monday, November 19
Who is left alive?
BCS Bowls - who's still alive?
Of course while the media is focused on the title game, a berth in any BCS bowl is a great honor for a team - it's basically an official nomination for being one of the ten best teams in the country - and an opportunity to show the nation what they're made of against another top team. As I'm sure you all know, the six "BCS conferences" each send their champion to a BCS bowl automatically and the remaining four slots are filled by invitation. (which may be guaranteed in some cases with a high enough ranking)
First of all, who's still alive in their conference races, and what would it take for them to win?
ACC:
Boston College:
* Has clinched Atlantic division.
* Conference title with win in ACCCG.
Virginia Tech:
* Clinches Atlantic division with win over UVA.
* Conference title with win over BC in ACCCG.
Virginia:
* clinches Atlantic division with win over VT.
* Conference title with win over BC in ACCCG.
Big East:
Connecticut: Conference title with win over West Virginia.
West Virginia: Conference title with win over Connecticut.
Big Ten:
* Ohio State is the Big Ten champion.
Big 12:
Kansas:
* Clinches North division with win over Missouri.
* Conference title with win in B12CG.
Missouri:
* Clinches North division with win over Kansas.
* Conference title with win in B12CG.
Oklahoma:
* Clinches South division with win over Ok State OR Texas loss to A&M.
* Conference title with win in B12CG.
Texas:
* Clinches South division with win over A&M AND OU loss to Ok State.
* Conference title with win in B12CG.
Pac 10:
Arizona State:
* Conference title by winning out OR win over Arizona and USC loss to UCLA and Oregon loss.
Oregon:
* Conference title by winning out AND Arizona State loss to USC.
USC:
* Conference title by winning out AND Oregon loss.
SEC:
Georgia:
* Clinches East division with Tennessee loss to Kentucky.
* Conference title with win over LSU in SECCG.
LSU:
* Has clinched West division.
* Conference title with win in SECCG.
Tennessee:
* Clinches East division with win over Kentucky.
* Conference title with win over LSU in SECCG.
What this means is that, in addition to the conference championship games and a few Pac 10 games Dec 1, there will be games with major conference championship implications this weekend. (all times MST... lol that's right bitches)
* USC at Arizona State, 6pm Thursday
* Texas at Texas A&M, 1:30pm Friday
* Boise State at Hawaii, 7pm Friday
* Connecticut at West Virginia, 10am Saturday
* Virginia Tech at Virginia, 10am Saturday
* Tennessee at Kentucky, 11:30am Saturday
* Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, 1:30pm Saturday
* Oregon at UCLA, 1:30pm Saturday
* Missouri at Kansas, 6pm Saturday
Additionally, Notre Dame travels to Stanford in a game that will be aired on NBC at 1:30pm Saturday. A victory by the Cardinal would give ND 10 losses for the season.
At this point, obviously the race for the wild card spots is too chaotic to really predict. In fact, upsets in conference championships would make it tough to predict even a week from now (surely an 11-2 LSU team who lost to an 11-2 Georgia team would still get an at-large bid). However, my predictions:
Conference Champions:
ACC: Virginia Tech (11-2)
* Virgina has been humiliated by Wyoming, won three games by 1 point, and won another two by 2 points. Fortune has been their ally as much as skill.
* Boston College was frankly lucky to win the first matchup, and has only escaped four straight losses by two last-minute victories. This time the Hokies won't go into a prevent.
Big East: West Virginia (11-1)
* UConn hasn't seen a player as good as Pat White, nor a backfield as scary as this one.
Big Ten: Ohio State (11-1)
* It's official.
Big 12: Missouri (12-1)
* Chase Daniel is the best quarterback and perhaps the best player in the conference. Kansas's schedule has not prepared them for the kind of offense the Tigers bring to the table.
* Oklahoma was lucky to pull out a 4th quarter win over Mizzou in Norman. On a neutral field and if they don't make as many mistakes (WR throwing an interception??) the Tigers win a rematch.
Pac 10: USC (10-2)
* ASU hasn't faced that great a schedule aside from Oregon, a game which they lost. USC knows how to take care of business, and they'll take care of things on their end.
* Oregon should have otherwise won out, but with Leaf quarterbacking now they are in a bad situation.
SEC: LSU (12-1)
* LSU may be banged up, but Arkansas just isn't very good.
* Tennessee has been absolutely killed by Florida and Alabama, and the Cal game got away from them too. They needed to come back to beat Vandy. Come on now.
In which case, the at-large bids go to:
* Kansas (11-1) - a loss to the only real competition they faced doesn't negate 11 wins vs a schedule at least 100 times tougher than Hawaii's.
* Georgia (10-2) - Despite the Vols finishing 9-3, Tennessee gets the East tiebreaker which means UGA doesn't face LSU. Two losses in the SEC is good enough, and they're already in the top ten anyway.
To understand the rest of what I think will unfold, first take into account that each conference can send at most two teams to the BCS. The Big 12 has three teams in the top 10 and Texas is 13th in the BCS standings. The SEC has two teams in the top 10 and Florida 12th. The Pac 10 has two in the top 10 and USC 11th. That means four teams currently in the top 13 would be ineligible to go! Looking down the list, that means schools like Boston College, Hawaii, Virginia, and Illinois are a lot closer to those final two spots than they otherwise appear. My guesses:
* Arizona State (10-2) - A loss to USC would likely drop them out of the top 10, but recall that all of the potentially eligible Big 12 and SEC teams cannot go. Of course, should Oregon avoid upset they would go over ASU.
* Boise State (11-1) - Hawaii has played unimpressively for about half the season, while Boise State's ground game has been devastating.
My BCS matchup predictions:
BCS Championship: LSU vs Missouri
Fiesta: Kansas vs Arizona State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs West Virginia
Rose: Ohio State vs USC
Sugar: Georgia vs Boise State
The Six Contenders
The craziest race to the BCS national championship came to a very unfortunate ending for two of the top-ranked teams in the country in the past three days.
Thursday night, Oregon got off to a hot start against conference foe Arizona. This was both a game UO lost last season and a road game this season, so it was arguably their biggest hurdle remaining. The Ducks marched down the field with ease of their opening two possessions, with only an unlucky bounce resulting in an interception keeping their lead at 8-7. They had driven down into the Arizona red zone for a third time when Dennis Dixon's previously injured knee collapsed. Though he walked off the field, it ended up being a torn ACL and the end of a great individual season. The Ducks salvaged a field goal out of that drive, but without their leader in the game they gave up a quick 24 unanswered points, including INT and PR touchdowns by Antione Cason, to fall behind by 20 points. Without Dixon, it took UO up until the fourth quarter to close the gap to 7; then the Wildcats hit a long field goal to put the game out of reach.
Saturday night, Oklahoma got off to a hot start against conference foe Texas Tech. This was the site of a controversial loss two seasons ago, and the Red Raiders feature one of the premiere quarterbacks and wide receivers in the nation. The Sooners scored a quick defensive touchdown, forced a punt, and then held TTU to a long field goal after a fumble on OU's first offensive play. On their second possession, Sam Bradford took a hard hit that resulted in a concussion, knocking him out of the game. Without their leader in the game, the Sooners gave up a quick 24 unanswered points to fall behind by 20. The Sooners were able to close within 14 with 8 minutes remaining, but a turnover on downs at the TTU 14 yard line all but sealed the deal with three minutes left and the Red Raiders held on for a seven point victory.
Two very different teams with two very different quarterbacks, same ending to their national title hopes. For the Sooners, Sam Bradford should be ready to go in December if not next week, so the conference championship and a BCS bid are still very much in the picture. For the Ducks, they must hope that USC or Arizona defeats Arizona State in order to clinch the Pac 10 championship and a Rose Bowl berth against Ohio State by winning out, but without Dennis Dixon a trip to UCLA followed by The Civil War game have become all the more difficult.
But as life and death are part of the same cycle, so are opportunity lost and opportunity created. Losses by two of the previous BCS top 7 have made a clearer path for Arizona State to advance to New Orleans. The Sun Devils will have the most difficult path there, but all they really need is for the four teams above them who are still playing to lose... and one of them is guaranteed to their next game as Kansas and Missouri square off.
And I'll say it now, if Ohio State is the only team with 1 or fewer losses by the season's end, then nobody else deserves to play for the title. Including Hawaii and their #857 ranked schedule. Just give it to the Bucks, or hell have them play against Appalachian State for a chance to redeem the conference.
Without further adieu, The Six Contenders:
1. LSU
Key Wins:
* Va Tech (BCS #8) 48-7
* Florida (BCS #12) 28-24
* Auburn (BCS #26) 30-24
Losses:
* at Kentucky (BCS #28) 43-37 3OT
Big Games Remaining:
* Arkansas (BCS #33)
* SEC Championship (prob - BCS #18 Tennessee)
QB: Matt Flynn (Sr, 125.3 rtg)
Off: #11 scoring
Def: #9 scoring
Outlook: With a 0.99 composite BCS score, LSU controls their own destiny more than any other team right now... in fact, it's safe to say that they control their own destiny. However, the SEC East winner will be a huge challenge and, though the team is not very strong, the McFadden-Jones duo could pull an upset in the regular season finale.
Should LSU win out and secure a title game berth, they would have the huge advantage of playing in New Orleans at the Sugar Bowl. Incidentally, three teams have played for the BCS title in their home state (FSU 00, LSU 03, USC 05) and only LSU actually won the game! Beyond that, LSU is a team who are better than they've played the second half of the season. Like many top teams who have fallen, the Tigers have been plagued by injuries. They may be the first title favorite who actually benefits from the long layoff.
2. Kansas
Key Wins:
* none
Losses:
* none
Big Games Remaining:
* Missouri (BCS #4)
* Big 12 Championship (prob - BCS #10 Oklahoma)
QB: Todd Reesing (So, 156.3 rtg)
Off: #2 scoring
Def: #2 scoring
Outlook: Having already moved into the top two before their biggest two games, it would be difficult to imagine the Jayhawks not making the BCS title game if they win out. Numerically, they are the equivalent of 1.5 spots above West Virginia who is 3rd in the BCS, so it is safe to say that they control their own destiny.
None of Kansas's victories thus far have been over opponents currently in the BCS top 25. However they have yet to lose, and their next two (assuming B12CG berth) opponents will likely finish in the BCS top 15.
Statistically, this season the Jayhawks have made it look easy on both sides of the ball. If Kansas is really as good as the numbers say, they'd make a great BCS title game team. But with their schedule it's still too early to say for sure how this group which has looked really amazing against inferior opposition will hold up against the NCAA's other top offenses and defenses. We'll know about the defense after they face Missouri, and the offense will have more of a challenge should they face Oklahoma or even Texas in the B12CG.
3. West Virginia
Key Wins:
* at Rutgers (BCS #35) 31-3
* at Cincinnati (BCS #24) 28-23
Losses:
* at South Florida (BCS #23) 21-13
Big Games Remaining:
* Connecticut (BCS #20)
QB: Pat White (Jr, 153.5 rtg)
Off: #12 scoring
Def: #8 scoring
Outlook:
When Louisville tanked early and WVU was upset by a hot South Florida team, everybody kinda forgot about the rest of the Big East. USF finally lost to Rutgers, and the conference was pretty much written off. Quietly WVU rebounded and has since posted victories on the road at Rutgers and at Cincinnati as well as winning a revenge game from last season over Louisville. Some defenses seem to have solved the Jet offense, but at the same time this is by far the best defense WVU has had in the Pat White era. It may be the most improved defense in the country... or certainly up there anyway. WVU still needs to hope that either LSU loses or the B12N team loses in their conference championship. They also have two games left, both at home but UConn is having a very good season and will be playing to get a BCS berth whose surprise level could only be topped by Kansas making the title game.
Should WVU get to the title game, I have to think that two factors would be working against them. First, particularly against a great defense like LSU's, Ohio State's, or possibly Kansas's (if they're actually this good), the one-dimensional offense might have trouble moving the ball. Second, the Big East has not provided the defining challenge that LSU got from Florida and Auburn or that Kansas and Missouri will likely provide each other. USF and Cincinnati simply are not opponents of that quality.
4. Missouri
Key Wins:
* at Illinois (BCS #17) 40-34
* Texas Tech (BCS #27) 41-10
Losses:
* at Oklahoma (BCS #10) 41-31
Big Games Remaining
* at Kansas (BCS #2)
* Big 12 Championship Game (prob - BCS #10 Oklahoma)
QB: Chase Daniel (Jr, 154.7 rtg)
Off: #6 scoring
Def: #34 scoring
Outlook:
Despite being #4 in the current standings, Missouri still controls their own destiny in the BCS. Should they defeat Kansas this weekend, they will likely move up to #2 based on that alone. Both human polls have Mizzou and WVU basically tied (they are tied in the Harris), and while the computers put Missouri 6th to WVU's 3rd, the lead is actually less than half a spot-equivalent, and Missouri's ranking will shoot up if they beat the team the computers have at #2.
How likely are their chances of winning the title should they get there? Offensively, Chase Daniel has been nothing short of brilliant. The Tigers' two 6-foot-6 250-lb tight ends are almost indefensible in tandem, and they have three big, strong wideouts and a fast, agile RB in Tony Temple, who came just shy of a Sun Bowl rushing record last season in the Tigers' last second loss. They may actually have the nation's second-best offense behind Florida.
It's the other side of the ball where their woes lie. No team has won a BCS title with a defense that ranked lower than 10th in scoring, and currently the Tigers' D is ranked #34 and giving up an unsightly 23 ppg. Even if they manage to shut out Kansas and the B12S champion, their defensive average would still be 19.5 ppg which would currently place them at #23 overall. Missouri does not have a championship caliber defense. That does not mean they can't win the BCS, but it may mean that Daniel has to find a way to score 51 points against LSU. (The Tigers might want to see Ohio State, whose quarterback play has in big games matched Mizzou's level of defensive mediocrity.)
5. Ohio State
Key Wins:
* at Penn State (BCS #31) 37-17
* Wisconsin (BCS #21) 38-17
* at Michigan (BCS #30) 14-3
Losses:
* Illinois (BCS #17) 28-21
QB: Todd Boeckman (Jr, 150.3 rtg)
Off: #35 scoring
Def: #1 scoring
Outlook:
The Buckeyes are the only team on this list that has taken care of everything they can, meaning they're also the only team who can do nothing but wait and watch. Ohio State has only slight worries about being surpassed by the likes of Arizona State or Georgia, but what they must hope is that two of the following three happen: WVU loses, Missouri/Kansas winner loses B12CG, and LSU loses. That's not as unlikely as it sounds, but obviously it's asking for a lot to go right in those five games.
As for their outlook on winning the national title, should they get there, obviously you can never count out the #1 defense in the country. While OSU's stats have benefited from the Big Ten not having a year up to their usual standards, the level of talent and execution of this particular unit has been extremely impressive for anyone who has watched them. OSU has held 7 out of 12 opponents to under 10 points and only once given up more than 20. Yes, this is the same thing they did last regular season. However, the secondary appears faster and the unit overall has much more starting experience than they did a season ago. But before we go comparing them to the 2002 squad that won the national title with a great defense and mediocre offense, remember that Krenzel was an excellent game manager if not the most gifted thrower of the football. Boeckman has a pretty good arm but makes terrible decisions. Against LSU's defense or in a shootout with Missouri, OSU would not be able to afford the costly interceptions.
6. Arizona State
Key Wins:
* Oregon State (BCS #37) 44-32
Losses:
* at Oregon (BCS #9) 31-20
Big Games Remaining:
* USC (BCS # 11)
QB: Rudy Carpenter (Jr, 152.3 rtg)
Off: #27 scoring
Def: #14 scoring
Outlook:
Obviously, "clear" and "easy" aren't synonyms. Arizona State's path to the NC game is indeed clear. First, they must win out. Then, the Big 12 South team must win the B12CG, LSU must lose to Arkansas or in the SECCG, and West Virginia must lose to Connecticut or Pittsburgh. Ohio State is the points equivalent of 2 spots ahead of ASU in the USA/Coaches poll and almost 2.5 spot equivalents ahead in the Harris poll, while the computers have both teams tied overall. ASU would of course pass Ohio State in the comps by beating USC, but given OSU's edge in the human polls it probably wouldn't be enough. Nothing is impossible, but Ohio State has a clear poll advantage at the moment.
Besides that, the Sun Devil's own path is perilous. Next week they host USC, a team vying for their sixth straight BCS appearance and with Rose Bowl hopes still alive. The Trojans' rushing attack has been impressive and ASU's statistically better than average rush defense hasn't seen a group of backs like this one. Next they would host Arizona, fresh off a huge upset of the Oregon Ducks and with two weeks to prepare for a rivalry game that would determine the Wildcats' bowl eligibility. My gut feeling is that uSC will end ASU's slim title hopes.
Sunday, November 18
Post-W12 BCS Fallout
I think I'm first to the post among the resident bloggers here, so I'll take this. (Watch James be writing at the same time I am.) The next round of BCS rankings is out already, and here's what we're looking at:
1 - LSU (.990)
2 - Kansas (.949)
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3 - West Virginia (.888)
4 - Missouri (.871)
5 - Ohio State (.860)
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6 - Arizona State (.802)
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15 - Hawaii (.425)
Thoughts:
- The top 4 aren't surprising to me at all, including the gap between the teams. I'm a little surprised that OSU is as close to 3rd as they are. I think they're close to a unanimous #5 in both polls, though, which would explain a lot.
- Whichever computer ranking still has OSU as the #1 team in the country should probably be shot.
- The best case scenario for the non-Big 12 players is this (I think): Kansas wins next week, then loses to OU (or, even better, Texas). If Missouri wins, the computer boost they get may hurt all the other teams a bit if they turn around and lose; even though the order shouldn't matter, it may.
- WVU needs to root for Georgia Tech this week; one computer poll has Georgia above WVU and the only thing that will likely change that is a loss. Sure, they could count on SOS to play itself out, but they'd rather take the sure thing.
- I doubt that ASU will be able to pass Ohio State in the Colley Matrix, at least. OSU is #2 in that ranking, but Arizona State's next opponent, USC, is pretty low in Colley's rankings. Arizona is way down in that ranking, too - 77th as of last week, but that will obviously go up with the win over Oregon. Of course, previous CM #5 OSU did jump to #2 with a win over old #23 Michigan, so it could happen.
I still see a zero-loss or one-loss B12 championship team going to the title game at this point, so I'm mainly focused on what would happen if that doesn't happen. It's more fun that way. In addition, I'd really rather see Arizona State over Ohio State if everyone in front of them falls, as they actually play in a good conference. The B10 this season has been at best flagrantly mediocre, and I think the top end of the Pac-10 is at least better than the B10, if not the overall depth too.
What'll it take for that to happen? Arizona State needs a big win this week to at least mix the votes some between them and Ohio State. A UGA loss wouldn't hurt them either, as it'd take some pressure off the #7 spot in the polls; it looks like there are some pollsters ranking them below UGA already, which I don't entirely get. Still, there's plenty of time.
Saturday, November 17
Aftershocks from Week 12
I'll admit, I got a bit bored this afternoon watching games, so I find it a little odd that I'm writing about a week where two national title contenders went down to unranked teams when my first thought is "this week sucked" .... but there you go. (That couldn't have been any more of a run-on sentence had I tried!) That's what it felt like to me.
Oregon and Oklahoma actually have a lot in common right now - and I bet they're both going to hate me for that. But think about it: both lost their starting QB in a game on the road to an unranked team early. Both opposing teams used that as a spark to stake out big early leads and then held on while the national title contender struggled to come back. Were they both huge upsets? Absolutely - but they weren't the most exciting games known to man. The upshot is that LSU still has a great shot of facing a Big 12 team in the title game (provided, of course, they win out), but it won't be the Sooners.
Big winners of the week: West Virginia, Arizona State, and Ohio State, in that order. WVU put itself in great position to snag the #2 voters' spot if the Big 12 Deathtrap (more on that in a minute) comes to pass. Arizona State would probably sit at 4/4/2 if that happened, so they may need a little help; if they can win big over USC that'll do wonders. Ohio State would be 3/3/3. I don't know how the spread will break down, but what will help ASU and WVU is that they play games well after Ohio State does; it may be the most recent game that determines voters' minds.
Big losers of the week: Florida, Penn State, Iowa, and those guys I already mentioned. Georgia's win over Kentucky eliminated the slim chance the Gators had of going to the SEC Championship game; I don't think anyone was really counting on it, but it was a disappointment. They can still finish 2nd in the conference with a Tennessee loss, though. Penn State inexplicably blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead to Michigan State; now the Spartans are bowl-eligible and the Nittany Lions are tied for 5th in the Big 10. Their partner at 5th, Iowa, may not even get to a bowl after their loss to Western Michigan - but they are 6-6. Sun Bowl, anyone?
I've already covered a lot of the game notes in my (ten thousand) previous posts, so I don't need to do that again. Some games and thoughts that I missed:
- Washington isn't going anywhere this season, but a 34-23 win over Cal hurt their bowl chances a bit. I don't know what happened to this team since the beginning of the season. A quick check of their stats shows me three things: 1) they're not stopping the run anymore, 2) they aren't passing as well as they were at the beginning of the year, and 3) they can't force turnovers. Not a good combo.
- Hawaii and Boise State continue on their path to the Biggest Clash Nobody Cares About. We'll see a 10-0 and 10-1 team face off this Friday for ...nothing, really. Hawaii might sneak into a BCS bowl, but don't bet your life on that. If they win on Friday, they're UConn's biggest fans, as they can still knock West Virginia out of the BCS.
- I never thought I'd say this, but the Sun Belt is actually kind of going places - and not just as the doormat. Their bad teams are still the worst in the country, but Troy? Not too shabby. FAU has a win over Minnesota (bad team, but still a BCS team) and UL-Monroe has an inexplicable win over Alabama. Before you say "who cares?", consider this: Troy's only losses this year are to teams that were ranked at the time they played. Even MTSU's subpar season included a road win over Memphis and a tight loss at Virginia. Don't look now, but they could be solid in a few years, provided all those teams stay in the Sun Belt.
- I really haven't paid a lot of attention to the MWC, but I'm not missing much. BYU has pretty much wrapped the league up, although we could see something screwy happen if they blow their last two games. Don't lose any sleep over that.
- Don't look now, but Texas - warts and all - has a mathematical chance of going to the Big 12 title game. It's more possible than you think at first glance; we don't know what Crawford's status is for next week and DeMarco Murray - who was Oklahoma's MVP of the game - is injured as well. They should be fine, but if not, that could put a serious crimp in everyone's plans except for Missouri and Kansas. They would love facing Texas, but if Texas were to win....
Oh, and the Big 12 deathtrap: with the Oklahoma loss, the worst-case scenario for the Big 12 at this point is Oklahoma winning the title. In that scenario, both Kansas and Missouri suffer a loss which leaves it up to ...well, controversy. It'd be a pick one between West Virginia, Ohio State, and Arizona State. I'll let James make that decision, as I don't want to touch it until I absolutely have to.
Week 12: Upset Watch Is Sick of Blue Balls
Western Michigan over Iowa doesn't really count as an upset. UL-Monroe over Alabama is an upset, but I think Captain Hangover took the credit for that win. So Upset Watch has spent most of the day in the bar getting tanked because he got stood up this afternoon. It's probably a good thing that he didn't pass out there, too.
Now it's getting late in the evening and Texas Tech has given ol' Upset a ring. They're up 27-7, but they just fumbled and Oklahoma recovered. Crawford is still out, which means Josh Halzle is having to shoulder most of the offensive load. With that being said, DeMarco Murray has really done well once he's got his hands on the ball, so Stoops may shift more of the offense to Murray once the second half begins. Halzle looks like he's settling down a bit, so we'll see if that helps after halftime. As of now, if Oklahoma can get within two scores before halftime, they have to chalk that up as a positive.
In the other games, West Virginia punted on their first possession and Cincy did an excellent job getting downfield .... up until they coughed up the ball. Still 21-10 with WVU on the move now.
Clemson just kicked a 22-yard FG. That tells you all you need to know about that game for now. Interest level: 1.5/10.
Update 1:
WVU / Cincinnati is on the back burner, as the 'Eers just went up 28-10. The less said about BC / Clemson, the better; suffice to say that nothing's gone on there. You haven't missed much if you spent the last 15 minutes eating dinner, as OU / TTU just kicked off the 2nd half. Let's see how this plays out.
Update 2:
I'm actually updating because of BC / Clemson. No, the game hasn't gotten interesting, but BC has taken the lead. It's 13-10, and the "highlight" is BC controlling the ball for about the first 7 minutes of the fourth quarter. There's still time to go in the game and Clemson is driving (as I'm writing, they're in the red zone and I'm actively looking for the Score Alert), so at worst they should be able to tie.
Cincinnati has cut the margin to 28-17 and they may be able to pull out the win if there was 75 minutes in regulation, but I think time's going to run out on them. Of course, literally as I'm writing the previous sentence Cincy recovers a fumble deep in WVU territory, so ....stay tuned. Still don't think there's enough time.
Meanwhile, in the upset du jour, TTU is up 34-13 and driving in the wrong direction. Still, at this point they're not quite to the point where they can hold serve, but Oklahoma's offense is not explosive today and won't be as long as Crawford's on the sidelines. It's not a guarantee, but ...it's not looking bad for the Red Raiders.
Updates on updates: TTU misses a FG opportunity by banging it off the post and Clemson bangs one in on the legs of Cullen Harper. 17-13 Clemson and still 34-13 TTU.
Update 3:
Apparently my insistent mockery of the BC / Clemson game finally reached Death Valley. BC has stormed back to take a 20-17 lead on the arm of Matt Ryan. That last part isn't to anyone's surprise; BC also has managed to do approximately nothing on the ground. Some credit goes to their D as well, as both Spiller and Davis have been shut down. The question I have for Tommy Bowden at this point is why he put the game in Cullen Harper's hands; Harper has done much better than expected, but he still has a fantastic combination of backs that he really should be using.
West Virginia / Cincinnati has gone final; WVU wins a tough battle on the road, which should help them in both the polls and in the computer rankings. Next week's game will do them some favors, but the final battle with a struggling Pitt team won't help. Snap analysis of the polls point to gaining at least a spot in each poll which will probably put them up to 5th at worst. If Oklahoma loses, they're probably in 4th, as I don't think Ohio State's win will do enough for them.
Speaking of Oklahoma, we're to the 4th quarter and they're down by 21.
Week 12: Dear God Let the Night Games Be Interesting
So after today turned out - by and large - a bunch of afternoon clunkers, here's hoping that the night games can be interesting.
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Odds of being interesting: 3:1
TTU has enough of a high-powered offense to keep people paying attention during their possession. Unfortunately, they have a defense that makes WAC teams look at it and say, "wow, those guys suck on D" - so they don't really have that going for them. I was really hoping that TTU's D ranked in the top 50 of scoring D, but no. They apparently can defend the pass pretty well, but I wonder how much of that is "TTU has a good secondary" as much as it is "TTU can't stop the run worth shit". Probably a bit of both.
On the other hand, Oklahoma also has a high-powered offense with a defense to match. They're a bit weak against the pass, maybe; it could be as much a questionable secondary as it is a killer front 7. Their offensive passing numbers aren't as Playstation as the Red Raiders, but they actually ....y'know, run the ball. This could be fun if OU's defense forgets to show up.
Boston College @ Clemson
Odds of being interesting: 2.333:1
I want to like this game, I really do. But this could be either a blowout or a dead duck. There's a real chance that both teams could decide they don't want to win the game, even though the winner has a great shot at a BCS berth. Bonus: both teams sport great offenses. Negative: both teams are spotty.
The real nice part about this game is that it should be close, but close doesn't always mean drama. Close also means a 7-7 tie in the 4th quarter with 12 TOs and a bunch of punts. You've been warned.
West Virginia @ Cincinnati
Odds of being interesting: 1.5:1
I like this game quite a bit. Both teams can both score and play D, and Cincinnati's D is notorious ball-hawks this season. I've professed on many occasions my love for West Virginia's offense, and this should be a challenge for them. All signs point to pulling up this game as your primary viewing option.
What could go wrong? Injuries. Blowouts. This game is 2 punts and a turnover away from becoming a blowout, but at least both teams can come back.
If we're lucky, one of these games will be good for a few hours. If not ....well, there's always hockey.
Update 1:
It's probably a little bit early for an update, but since every game is already 7-0, it's worth mentioning at least. Nothing really worth mentioning beyond that, though. Oklahoma scored their 7 on a Pick 6 so TTU will get the ball back, and Cincinnati had to punt on their first possession but forced a three-and-out. West Virginia did pull off one hell of a punt.
Anyway, we're a punt and an Oklahoma TD away from this game getting annoying. I'll just hope Clemson and BC don't punt at all. At least the Penguins had a great first period; Sidney Crosby is playing the best game I've ever seen from him.
Update 2:
I'm not talking about hockey anymore; stupid Rangers. Going through the main games:
WVU @ Cincinnati: Interest level - 4/10. The Mountaineers are up 21-10 going into halftime and get the ball back to start the 3rd. Cincinnati needs some momentum here, and I'm mainly following the game because I like the Bearcats. If it gets to 28-10, it's going on the back burner until Cincy can get within a score.
BC @ Clemson: Interest level - 5/10. Bonus points for staying within 7 points, but here's how the drives have ended:
Punt, TD, turnover on downs, punt, punt, punt, INT, missed FG, punt, punt, FG
Admit it, you're glad you're not watching this game. ACC football!
Oklahoma @ TTU: Interest level - 9/10. This isn't 10/10 only because I don't particularly care about either team, but since the Red Raiders are up 20-7, it's a big deal right now. I can't believe in them yet, though; they haven't looked good on D (which I thought) and I'm not totally sold on the offense. That being said, Michael Crabtree is sick and is worth a point by himself. I haven't seen him before tonight, but ...wow.
Another point of interest: Sam Bradford is out of the game with a slight concussion. His backup is in, and he just was responsible for a delay-of-game penalty. If OU goes to a silent count that'll fix a lot of the problems, but can he handle that?
Week 12: In Search of Interesting Games
Wow. The Tennessee/Vandy game was a nail-biter, but the Vols managed to pull it out. The fourth quarter made all the difference for Tennessee, but the problem for the Vols was - oddly - Cassen Jackson-Garrison, who ended up going for 82 yards on 22 carries. The only justification / reasoning I can think of for this game was a combination hangover / trap game. The defense played great against Arkansas and they'll need to do the same next week. Game ball goes to Arian Foster, who didn't score but set up the TD for the Vols to cut the deficit to 24-22 and rushed for a lot of the yardage that allowed Lincoln to kick a FG that served as the final margin. Fun fact: once I turned off the audio on the game the Vols outscored the Commodores 16-0.
UL-Monroe will win against Alabama at 'Bama. Huge, huge upset - and don't look now, but the Sun Belt is starting to shed some of their doormat image. The conference isn't good yet, but they could give, say, the MAC a run for their money at least. I wonder if the Sabanophiles are going to still worship the ground he walks on after today.
Short of those games, there's ...not a whole lot happening, again. It's been a pretty quiet week. LSU is up 21-7 on Ole Miss now, Wisconsin took the lead on Minnesota - although that's obviously within a score, and I'm reduced to watching Duke / ND during commercial breaks. God, this LSU / Ole Miss game needs to get interesting fast.
Update 1:
These games are teasing me. Miami finally pulled within a score only to see VA Tech put together probably their best drive of the year - and I'd flip over to watch it, but I still can't watch ACC football of my own accord yet. God, this conference needs to get good fast if I'm going to be stuck watching all their regional coverage.
Minnesota just tied it against Wisconsin, but of course I can't watch that game. (No, I don't have cable; wouldn't that game be on the Big 10 Network anyway?) Meanwhile, Penn State is letting MSU back into the game; it's 24-21 with the Spartans just scoring a TD.
Nothing new elsewhere; George O'Leary even pulled Kevin Smith, so he's still stuck on his old numbers. Ole Miss managed to cut it to 21-10, but LSU kicked a FG to restore the old margin. I've got 5 different Gamecasts open hoping something, anything will happen. I'm almost reduced to following Northern Illinois / Navy even though I can only name one guy combined between the two teams and I can't spell his name. Maybe ABC will change their coverage.
Update 2:
I'm about to write a sentence I never even dreamed of writing.
I want to watch Big 10 football. Seriously. LSU just extended their lead to 17 points so I'm putting that game on the back burner now. I've willingly subjected myself to watching an ACC blowout in hopes that they change the broadcast over. It's a 23-point margin in this game. Meanwhile, I'm staring at my Gamecast and seeing that Penn State is only up by 3, but no. I'm watching Miami. And it's not going anywhere.
In other games ....what do you think? Wisconsin is finally rolling, Washington is beating Cal enough that I'm taking notice (same margin, but now it's the 4th quarter), and that's really about it. Updating a line from way earlier, Memphis looks like they'll win against UAB.
I'm actually waiting for hockey to begin now. Maybe I can fast-forward my life by an hour.
Update 3:
This'll be the last update before the night games post It doesn't look like there will be anything exciting on the horizon, either. LSU has put it away, and Indiana did beat Purdue on a last-second FG. I guess that counts for something.
Meanwhile, ABC was no help at all, as Penn State ended up blowing their lead. Did we see any of it? Nope. Western Michigan beat Iowa 28-19 on the arm of Tim Hiller (357 yards, 3 TDs). Short of that, there wasn't a lot going on. In the meantime, I'm going to watch some hockey.
Be back with a preview shortly.
Week 12: First Round Complete
We're starting to finish the first round of games. Ohio State/Michigan just went final - 14-3 Buckeyes. The game wasn't that surprising; I don't think anyone expected an offensive shootout, and Michigan's had a rough season. This may be Lloyd Carr's final game. Player of the game? Chris Wells, who had 39 (!) runs for 220 yards. It wasn't the prettiest game at all, but Wells was the difference-maker.
Vanderbilt just scored another TD to go up 14-9 late in the 2nd quarter. This was followed by Erik Ainge throwing an inadvertent backward lateral recovered by Vandy at the UT 18. Vandy converted that into a FG, making the margin 17-9 at the half. They'll get the ball back to start the 2nd half, too. Upset Watch is eating some breakfast, as he may be needed shortly.
Other games that have gone final:
Illinois 41, Northwestern 22 (MVP: Juice Williams - 15-23, 217 yards, 1 TD plus 136 yards rushing and 2 rushing TDs)
Temple 24, Kent State 14
UConn 30, Syracuse 7
A whole host of games are about to kick off, including LSU / Ole Miss, Michigan State / Penn State, and UAB / Memphis. I think I'm the only person who cares about that last one, though.
Update 1:
Georgia's done a great job locking down the Wildcats in the second half. I figured that Kentucky had a shot to pull back once it got within 8, but Georgia's kicked a FG to go up 24-13 in a score that I expect will hold to final. Nothing else is really new in SEC land; Arkansas is walking all over Mississippi State, LSU is already up on Ole Miss, and Alabama is struggling with an inferior opponent.
Other finals: Georgia Tech wins a close game over North Carolina (27-25), Tulsa over Army in a shootout (49-39), Rutgers close over Pitt (20-16), FSU closed out the win over Maryland (24-16), and that Georgia/Kentucky game went final in the time it took me to write the update.
Update 2:
The Vandy/Tennessee game isn't looking good for the Vols. I've turned off the audio in hopes that might make a difference - I'm nothing if not superstitious. Will it make a difference? I doubt it. After the first drive, the Vols have looked listless on both sides of the ball. It looks like a hangover game in the making.
Notre Dame has gone up on Duke 14-0 right before the half. It's good to know that the Fighting Irish can handle a solid, talented team like the Blue Devils.
Not a whole lot going on elsewhere; Alabama is letting UL-Monroe hang around into the second half, which is amusing but I don't see it lasting. Kevin Smith from UCF has already run for 175 yards and 2 TDs before the half. He's been on a mission in the middle of nowhere, and he may even be able to work himself into the Heisman talk (but I doubt it).
Update 3:
LSU / Ole Miss has kind of stagnated. LSU is up 14-7, but they're not walking all over the Rebels like I expected. Ole Miss has hung tough - and we even had a Brent Schaeffer sighting! He's 2-for-5, which is a completion ratio I fully expect him to maintain throughout the rest of the game.
Another heartfelt thanks goes out to ABC; we get Miami / VT, which has been a 17-0 beatdown. Is anyone surprised? Meanwhile, Kansas is rolling Iowa State, Penn State is up 10-7 on Michigan State, and Washington is winning a tight game 14-13. But no, we get the beatdown.
Apparently Kevin Smith is now at 179 yards and 3 TDs on the game - currently at halftime. I'm a bit surprised; I guess I updated in the middle of his run or something last time. No matter.
Upset Watch: Vandy's still up 24-16 on Tennessee into the 4th quarter, and thank god for Minnesota keeping at least some of the spotlight off that game; they're up 13-3 on Wisconsin in the 2nd quarter. Also, UL-Monroe is up 21-14 on Alabama almost at the end of the 3rd quarter.
Week 12: Tennessee's Kicking Off and I Have the Audio
I figure with me adding a fourth game to the mix (Tennessee / Vandy, audio only) I should start another post. We're still just before halftime with Georgia / Kentucky; Georgia just punched in a Knowshon Moreno TD to cut the margin to 10-7. It's a big score for them; Kentucky basically dominated the first half in both yardage and time of possession, but Georgia was able to throw one drive together for a score. They won't get the ball to start the second half, though.
In the other games: not a whole lot. Everyone's at halftime.
Fun fact: Tennessee TE Brad Cottam is from (one of) my hometown(s). It's Senior Day for the Vols today, a fact that I'm sure nobody else cares about but me. Judging by the crowd response, I'd be right too. At least Ainge got a strong ovation.
Update 1:
Ohio State scored and I totally missed it. I was starting to make lunch and apparently I wasn't looking at the TV then. Apparently it was a Beanie Wells 62-yard run, so I'm not surprised I missed it.
I want to turn on the Gamecast for the UT/Vandy game, but Internet Explorer doesn't like a lot of Gamecasts open at once so I'm already pushing it here. Verdict? Goodbye, MD/FSU.
Update 2:
I don't feel bad about turning off MD/FSU; it was 21-6 early in the 2nd quarter and it's still 21-6 in the middle of the 3rd quarter. I won't be revisiting this game until MD can cut the gap to one score.
What'll I replace it with? ND/Duke! We're close to kickoff there and this game is going to be hideously bad. I'm looking forward to it.
Kentucky/Georgia just got back from halftime, and the Georgia D just forced a punt - which special teams blocked. Georgia's ball deep in Kentucky territory, and it looks like at worst the Dawgs have momentum. In other SEC news, Tennessee is rolling Vandy early, but the first extra point was blocked, so the Vols are only up 6-0 on a Lucas Taylor TD catch.
In other news, Henne's off the field and it'll be up to Ryan Mallett to lead the Wolverines to a win over the Buckeyes. Best of luck - he'll need it.
(Edit: Georgia did punch it in for a TD. 14-10 Bulldogs.)
Update 3:
End of the first quarter in the UT/Vandy game and ...not a whole lot has happened. Daniel Lincoln had a FG bounce off the crossbar and fall out, but Vandy wasn't able to capitalize on it. There really hasn't been much happening in any game that I haven't already updated. Missouri opened up some breathing room against K-State (28-18), Georgia Tech is locked in a tight battle with North Carolina (17-15 GT), and Rutgers is having issues with Pitt but they're leading 17-13.
I have a remarkable ability to update right as Georgia scores a TD. I was all ready to write about how nothing was going on in the UGA/UK game, but as soon as I do Moreno rips off a 20-yard run and Stafford has a big scramble TD. Finally get a chance to see that Beanie Wells TD, which was as nice as you'd expect for a 62-yard TD run. Ohio State is pinned deep in their own territory.
Upset Watch is on snooze for the time being.
Update 4:
Upset Watch has turned a sleepy eye toward the Tennessee-Vanderbilt game. It's now Vandy 7-6 thanks to a remarkable 17-play, 78-yard drive that took 9:02 off the clock. It's still very early, but the drive was helped out thanks to an obvious PI call against Ryan Karl (covering Earl Bennett, of course he was going to have to commit a foul). In other news, Lones Seiber picked up the luck that Daniel Lincoln lost, banging a FG in off the left post to cut Kentucky's margin to 21-13. A Georgia TO and a Kentucky punt gives Georgia the ball again going into the 4th quarter.
It's still 14-3 Ohio State in a game I definitely wouldn't call exciting. Truth be told, I've barely paid attention to any game currently on the TV; Duke and ND are doing their best imitation of the Punt, Pass, and Kick contest, right down to having the athletic skill of 12-year olds. The MD/FSU margin is 11 - 24-13 - so I'm not paying any more attention to it than that.
A quick survey of the 3:30 games has made me realize that I'm going to get to see a couple of clunkers once 3:30 rolls around: LSU @ Ole Miss and Miami @ VA Tech. Poor CBS. Stupid ABC's regional coverage.
The Week 12 Early Game Count
I love Saturdays. I’ve managed to finally set up my computer so I can watch a game online and mute/un-mute the game without having to move. What’s that mean? I’m really lazy – but it’s kind of awesome. Well, really awesome.
Anyway, I’ll be updating this with thoughts from the three games I’m watching:
- Both
- Asher Allen would’ve returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown had he not slipped. Big mistake;
No real thoughts on the third game for now; I’m not following it *that* closely. Well, FSU's damn tomahawk chop gets old quickly, but that's not news.
Update 1:
- Kentucky gets on the board first thanks to a beautiful threaded pass by Woodson to Keenan Burton. This was also thanks to a stupid, stupid PI by the already mentioned Asher Allen - he basically careened headfirst into the intended WR.
- Finally had a chance to score-check on the MD/FSU game. Florida State is killing it thanks to an early pick and great field position. I'll trust their lead about as far as I can throw Bobby Bowden, but it's legit for now.
- Ohio State just pulled off a solid drive to punch the ball in for a touchdown.
- In the time I was writing those previous updates, Kentucky pulls off a beautiful pick and is now driving into Georgia territory. Georgia's playing a lot of zone early and the routes that are being called do a great job of threading the coverage territories. The Wildcats look really good early - 5:13 left in the 1st quarter.
Update 2:
- Georgia is not looking good at all right now. They've had three turnovers already and a couple of bad penalties, and it's 10-0 Kentucky with almost all the momentum to boot.
- Michigan just booted one beautiful 68-yard punt. They're still down 7-0.
- Unrelated game: I'm following Missouri-Kansas State on Gamecast, and I happen to click over to it right as Jeremy Maclin returns the kickoff for a TD. It's strange seeing just one big black line going all the way across the field, but that was what happened. 14-9 Missouri (they blocked the point after).
Update 3:
- Even though I'm not watching the game, I'd feel bad if I didn't mention that K-State has taken the lead against Missouri. This has been a recurring problem for the Wildcats; they have an unfortunate habit of falling asleep for a few minutes at a time during each game. It hasn't killed them much yet, but it will soon. Of course, in the time I post this, they score again to go up 21-15. Oh well.
- Michigan/Ohio State is in the locker room for halftime, and the game ....honestly hasn't been that exciting. I've been spending a while doing some background things for the blog, but I haven't even thought much about looking up. I'm now in the unfortunate position of watching two Lincoln Financial broadcasts at once, and I can now confidently say one thing: just because LF Sports is 1/2 the production value of every other broadcast, two broadcasts doesn't make one totally professional.
- Thomas Brown is back for the Bulldogs! I don't know what this means, but the answer for now is: not a lot. They're driving late in the 2nd quarter.
Friday, November 16
a history and analysis of bcs controversy
(post still in editing/progress...)
Almost every season, the BCS has brought with it some sort of controversy. Six of the nine championship game selections have been controversial, and at least two of the at large bid selections. By far the Pac 10 has gotten the worst of this deal. Ask a Pac 10 fan, and they'll tell you that their conference has repeatedly been screwed over by the BCS because the nation has an anti-west coast bias. They'd be half right...
1998 BCS Championship Game:
#1: Tennessee, SEC champ and unbeaten
#2: Six teams (!) with one loss apiece
* Florida State, #2 in both polls with one loss (24-7 to NC State)
* Ohio State, #3 in both polls with one loss (28-24 to Michigan State)
* Kansas State, #4 in both polls with one loss (36-33 to Texas A&M, B12CG)
* UCLA, #5.5 poll average with one loss (49-45 to Miami in their last game)
* Arizona, #5.5 poll average with one loss (52-28 to UCLA)
* Wisconsin, #8.5 poll average with one loss (27-10 to Michigan)
Florida State had the benefits of losing early and of defeating four teams with nine or more wins after that loss. Not only were they comfortably #2 in the polls, but the computers had them almost on par with Tennessee.
Considering the number of teams in contention, there was surprisingly little commotion about the actual selection. Of note, Ohio State and Wisconsin never faced each other and were conference co-champs, and this was the only season where the voters placed a Big 12 team over a Pac 10 team with the same record in their polls when both were vying for BCS spots.
2000 BCS Championship Game:
#1: Oklahoma, B12 champ and unbeaten
#2: Five teams with one loss apiece
* Miami, #2 in both polls with loss to Washington
* Florida State, #3 in both polls with loss to Miami
* Washington, #4 in both polls with loss to Oregon
* Oregon State, #5.5 poll average with loss to Washington
* Virginia Tech, #5.5 poll average with loss to Miami
Oregon State and Virginia Tech were without the marquee wins of Miami and Washington, and were thus eliminated in favor of the perceived best teams in their respective conferences. Miami lost the second game of the year at Washington by five points and won their final nine by devastating margins. Washington lost their fourth game of the year at Oregon by 7, and finished with six straight wins that for the most part were close games. Florida State lost in the first weekend of October at Miami by a field goal before winning six straight blowouts. The polls seemed to reward Miami for losing early and winning big, while punishing Washington for winning just two of their final seven games by more than a TD. From my vague recollection, this was a season where Washington's media coverage really paled in comparison to both FSU's and Miami's. The Pac 10 was very competitive that season, with an Oregon State team loaded with NFL talent on offense (they would crush Notre Dame 41-3 in the Fiesta Bowl) and Oregon having ten wins as well. Retrospectively, if the 2000 season was the start of the 2000-02 mini-dynasty, Miami was in fact the best choice, but of course nobody knew that at the time.
2001 BCS Championship Game:
#1: Miami, Big East champ and unbeaten
#2: Four teams with one loss apiece and a twice-beaten conference champion
* Oregon, #2 in both polls with loss to Stanford
* Colorado, #3 in both polls with losses to Fresno State and Texas
* Nebraska, #4 in both polls with loss to Colorado
* Maryland, #6 poll average with loss to Florida State
* Illinois, #7 poll average with loss to Michigan
Maryland and Illinois were hit for playing weak schedules and for being unheralded in previous seasons. Both those teams were fresh off a 5-6 season. Comparatively, Oregon had gone 10-2 with a bowl win over Texas in 2000 and Nebraska had finished 10-2 with a bowl massacre of Northwestern. The Huskers hadn't won fewer than 9 games since 1969. Our Big Ten and ACC champs simply weren't given the same consideration, whether they actually deserved a spot or not.
I have no idea how a two-loss team was even being considered. Colorado lost to a non-BCs team and got massacred 41-7 by Texas. I think what happened is that nobody really paid attention to this team until they got hot... we're talking about just a one time zone difference from the west coast, so similar "late night" issues for watching their games. People tuned in to watch them take on then-unbeaten Nebraska in their season finale rivalry game and witnessed by far the best four quarters of Colorado's season. The following week, they face Texas and Mack Brown's decision to play Chris Simms over Major Applewhite in that game is probably the root of why people doubt Brown as a coach. The stats were something like Colorado outscored Texas 36-0 with Simms in the game and were outscored 37-3 with Applewhite in. (yes it's probably a little less extreme than that) But if that's what people were basing their opinion of CU on, then they looked pretty good for six quarters there.
This Oregon team (and perhaps 2003 USC, though their location in LA was also a huge factor) I think defines each side of the West Coast syndrome, aka "anti-west coast bias." Ask yourself this - how many Oregon games did you watch at least two full quarters of during the 2001 regular season? Zero, one... maybe two? And that's probably all of the Oregon games you saw. Strangely, I think this is an advantage for them in the age of modern media. What most people know of that Oregon team are SportsCenter highlights of Joey Harrington throwing TD after TD, the defense coming up with a key third down stop or forced turnover, and the like. Five of Oregon's ten wins going into the bowls came by one score or less, but that's not the visual impression you get from watching the highlights. But on the flip side, watching what looks like highlights from massacre games also makes the rest of the Pac 10 look weak. In reality, Stanford and Washington State both finished that season 9-2 before the bowls, but that same parade of Harrington highlights that made the Ducks look like the runaway #2 team also made it look like they played a bunch of patsies. Yes, the objectively calculated computer polls happened to agree with the idea that Nebraska and Colorado faced tougher schedules. But the discrepancy was greater in the only semi-objective SOS and Quality Wins factors, where what matters is how the human voters are ranking your competition. Colorado had gigantic quality wins points for victories over Nebraska and Texas, and both Big 12 teams SOS points combined added to less than Oregon's (low BCs point totals were good back then). It's somewhat paradoxical, because my feeling is still that if more people had watched the Pac 10 and Big 12 seasons closely, Nebraska would have been given the nod for having a more impressive season (though the lateness of their loss may have still lead to a #2 ranking for the Ducks who had rebounded from their loss to win four straight) but Oregon's schedule would have been given more respect.
This was the first of many times that, given a Pac 10 and Big 12 team with the same record and similar resumes, the voters went with the Pac 10 but the team who got the nod was from the Big 12.
2003 BCS Championship Game:
#1 and #2: three one-loss teams
* USC, #1 in both polls with a loss to Cal
* LSU, #2 in both polls with a loss to Florida
* Oklahoma, #3 in both polls with a loss to Kansas State (B12CG)
LSU was the least controversial here... as the voters, computers, and composite BCS standings all had the Tigers at #2. The Tigers had the #1 defense in the country and had just won the SEC to advance to the Sugar Bowl. Following a win over Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, it was clear that LSU had indeed belonged in the title game.
Oklahoma was called the greatest team of all time for most of the season. They scored at least 50 points in four straight games, culminating that stretch with a 65-13 win over Texas. In mid November, they humiliated Texas A&M 77-0, begging the question of whether they could be beaten. But once again, the Big 12 foiled itself in the conference championship game, with a three-loss Kansas State team exposing OU's weakness against the option and harassing Jason White into multiple turnovers in a dominant victory. That was the Sooners' final game, and it dropped them to third.
This lead USC to become the #1-ranked team in the nation. The Trojans were supposed to struggle on offense without Carson Palmer, but newcomer Matt Leinart led an attack that scored at least 40 points in their final seven regular season games. The defense had some holes but did pitch two shutouts and was one of the top teams against the run with an outstanding front four. Receiver Mike Williams tied the NCAA TD record for a freshman.
This season and the following were really the most controversial, because prior to the game you couldn't say that one of these three teams was definitely less deserving than the other two. In fact, with the Sugar Bowl being a seven point game and the Rose Bowl being decided by 14, you couldn't even say that afterwards, nor did LSU or USC appear clearly better than the other. Perhaps the split decision was the most fitting for a season that really begged for one more game.
Again the West Coast Syndrome played a big role in this decision, and USC's location in the nation's second largest city did as well. On the media side, LSU and Oklahoma were two schools about as removed from a major media center as it gets. There was nowhere near the push for these schools that there was for SC, and the voters' overwhelming preference for the Trojans despite fairly similar resumes for all three schools seems to indicate that this was a factor. Playing in the SEC gave LSU enough of a schedule advantage over USC to claim the #2 spot in the computers, and by the human and computer polls alone we would have had LSU vs USC for the title. However the additional points swung heavily in OU's favor. The Sooners benefited from the Big 12 having themselves, KSU, Nebraska, and Texas all finishing with at least nine wins. OU's nonconference schedule included a pair of 9-win midmajors, UCLA, and Alabama. This led to big SOS and Quality Win points for the Sooners. While in 2001 a strong Pac 10 suffered from image problems, in 2003 the conference (aside from USC) was on a cyclical downswing. USC did have an impressive nonconference win on the road over Auburn, but BYU and Notre Dame were non-BCS conference teams with sub-.500 records. Underrating the west coast may have played a factor with Washington State who finished the regular season 9-3, I can't recall.
Once again, the voters had chosen the Pac 10 team but it was the Big 12 team who played in New Orleans.
The 2004 season had a double dose of controversy.
2004 BCS Championship Game:
#1 and #2: three unbeaten teams
* USC, #1 in both polls
* Oklahoma, #2 in both polls
* Auburn, #3 in both polls
The Trojans followed their AP championship season with a perfect 2004. Though in many games they appeared to just squeak by, it was in fact an improved defense that finished the regular season #2 in scoring that allowed them to survive such close games. For most of the regular season, the offense struggled to produce the same output they had with Mike Williams as the go-to guy, but they gave up almost 6 ppg less than the season before and were always able to score when they needed to. The Trojans began the season with a road victory over Virginia Tech and gave Cal their only loss in a revenge game. The hype machine behind USc was huge, and as defending co-champ, there was really never any question that they would play in the NC game if they ran the table.
Oklahoma's weakness in 2003 was its lack of a running game, and freshman back Adrian Peterson appeared to be the answer to their offensive flaw. However, a depleted secondary was often exposed as the Sooners had several big halftime deficits in conference play. They finished the season with three absolutely dominating victories allowing a total of six points over that stretch, albiet against weak B12 North competition.
Auburn started off the season ranked well below both USC and OU. The Tigers had gone just 8-5 the season before, but with the nation's new #1 defense and an all senior backfield trio, the Tigers coasted though most of their season, being tested only by LSU and blowing out good teams like Tennessee and Georgia. Unfortunately, Auburn had a nonconference opponent drop out at the last second, and their replacement The Citadel destroyed the Tigers otherwise superior SOS. With a low preseason ranking and next to zero media hype, the Tigers finished #3 in the polls and with no big nonconference wins they finished #3 in the computers.
Though it wound up not mattering as it was the SEC champion who was relegated to watching from home, yet again the voters had picked the Pac 10 team while the computers had picked the Big 12 team. By the end of the night the voters had clearly made the correct choice and we were left wondering if Oklahoma even belonged in that game.
2004 BCS At Large Berth
#1: Utah automatically qualifies for winning non-BCS conference and finishing top 6
#2: two one-loss teams
* Cal, #4 in both polls, loss to USC
* Texas, #6 in AP and #5 in coaches, loss to Oklahoma
Cal began the season incredibly impressive on both sides of the ball; at one point they were in the top 6 for both scoring offense and scoring defense. In their lone loss to USC, the game was very competitive and in fact Cal outgained USC by nearly 200 yards and had four shots at the end zone with a minute left to win the game; despite completing 29 of his first 31 passes, Aaron Rodger's final four all fell incomplete. One was even dropped by an open receiver. Several turnovers negated the yardage advantage as overall it almost appeared that Cal was the better team.
Texas played inconsistently for most of their season but had the game's ultimate X-factor in Vince Young, who repeatedly brought them back for dramatic victories. Against Oklahoma, offensive coordinator Greg Davis went beyond conservative, and despite one of the Longhorns' better defensive efforts of the year to hold OU to 12 points, the watered-down offense was shut out in an embarrassing defeat. Texas would later need some huge 4th down conversions and a controversial call to defeat lowly Kansas and preserve their BCS hopes.
Going into the final week, Cal had the edge over Texas #4 to #6 in the AP Poll and #4 to #5 in the coaches. The AP was actually by about 1.25 spots and the coaches by .75... with Texas's solid two-spot lead in the computers, the two schools were in a virtual tie for 4th place in the BCS standings with Cal ahead by less than 13/10000 of a point. Texas had played their final game against Missouri, winning 26-13. The final week would see Cal's eleventh game, on the road vs a non-BCs team, Southern Miss. The Golden Bears outgained the Golden Eagles by over 200 yards, but a missed FG, turnover on downs, and an INT negated three drives totaling 169 yards. They also missed a PAT late in the 4th quarter when they had just bumped the lead to 10. For viewers, these squandered opportunities were reminiscent of the USC game, and Cal's close victory over a mediocre team probably cost them the decisive points.
Following the end to Texas's season, Mack Brown hit the campaign trail to stump for his team. Texas believed that they should have played in one or two BCS bowls from 2000-2003, but instead had repeatedly been sent to the Holiday Bowl and once to the Cotton Bowl. No way, Brown vowed, would the Longhorns be left out for their fourth consecutive 10-win season. Brown's stumping had almost no effect on voters between Nov 21 and Nov 28, but perhaps because he could devote all of his time to it following Texas's last game Nov 27, and perhaps because the points sounded more valid after Cal struggled than after they won via blowout, Texas gained enough votes to reverse the final lead to 13/1000 in their favor. A few ballots contained absurdities such as having Cal at #7, leading the AP to question the integrity of the BCS and pull their poll starting in 2005.
Cal fans blame Brown's "dishonorable" campaigning while Texas fans say Cal gets the blame for not making a strong statement to finish the season; in reality given the extreme closeness of the BCS standings on Nov 28, either Brown's campaigning for Texas or the unimpressive victory would have cost the Bears the #4 spot without the other. The combination of the two gave Texas the equivalent of about a .3 spot edge overall, still very close.
When people look back on this selection, Cal's apparent huge lead over Texas in the polls is somewhat misleading - this being the first year exact averages were used, Cal's numerical lead was less than 1 spot in the AP poll despite the appearance of a two-spot edge, and a virtual tie in the Coaches poll (5 votes separated the two). Nonetheless, they had been chosen over the Longhorns in both human polls, and it was the Longhorns who played in the Rose Bowl. This was now the third time the voters chose a Pac 10 school while the BCS formula awarded the spot to a Big 12 school, and the fourth time (counting USC>OU>Auburn) that the voters ranked the Pac 10 team higher while the computers favored the Big 12 team.
It is also noteworthy that by the standings, Texas and Cal should have gotten at large bids with Utah being left out. However as the Utes were unbeaten, their inclusion was not protested much.
2005 BCS At-Large Berth
#1 and #2:
* Ohio State, #4 in both polls, losses to Texas and Penn State
* Oregon, #6 Coaches' poll, #5 Harris poll, loss to USC
* Notre Dame, #5 Coaches' poll, #6 Harris poll, losses to USC and Michigan State
Despite having two losses, most people were content with Ohio State being ranked above one-loss Oregon. After all, Oregon's loss to #1 USC was at home by 32 points, while Ohio State's two losses totaled 10 points to the #2 and #3 teams in the nation. A popular argument was that Ohio State could have gone 10-1 with Oregon's schedule, but Oregon might not have been able to go 9-2 with Ohio State's.
Nonetheless, Ohio State alone couldn't cost Oregon a deserved BCS Berth. Notre Dame had finished 6-6 the year before, but now with Charlie Weiss, OMFG NORTE DAME WAS TEH BACK!!1 GG!!! Notre Dame did play one hell of a game to almost beat USC, but they also lost to a Michigan State team who finished the season 5-6. The Spartans started off 4-0 and beat ND during that span... one writer actually rationalized that defeating the Irish took everything MSU had and they just couldn't keep that energy up for the whole season. Right... two months later when Minnesota was burying their final chance to become bowl eligible, their wide receivers were still tired from running up and down against the field on the Irish. This was the ultimate bias meets bias, as the absurd hype machine that is Notre Dame met up with a Pac 10 team who many people had only seen in their loss to USC... and would see replays of over and over again thanks to the USC hype machine. Because Notre Dame led Oregon by .8 overall in the Coaches poll and trailed by just .24 in the Harris, the Irish had a slim edge before the computer polls were calculated. The computers gave Oregon a massive 5.5 spot advantage, propelling them to the equivalent of a 1.5 spot lead over the Irish in the composite BCs standings. They were the clear choice for #2 at large. But Notre Dame wouldn't be Notre Dame if they didn't have special clauses designed to fill their coffers, and indeed there was a rule allowing Notre Dame to be selected ahead of teams who ranked higher than them in the BCS standings assuming they were ranked in the top 6. I'll rarely be so definitive about a selection being wrong, but Oregon got absolutely shafted in 2005. Worst BCs selection gaffe ever, and Ohio State proved that by running up and down the field (which apparently didn't tire out their receivers for the 2006 season) against Notre Dame and winning comfortably despite having a turnover inside their own 10 and missing two FGs. Not that Oregon made much of a case for themselves by losing to Adrian Peterson (yes, 11 on 1) in the Holiday Bowl, but even on that afternoon they looked like they would have provided more of a challenge for Ohio State.
It's worth noting that, while there was absolutely no championship game controversy this season, once again the voters picked USC from the Pac 10 while the computers picked Texas from the Big 12. That made five times this trend has held since 2001, and five out of a possible six since 1998. Though Texas won the game, the close comeback win says that in reality it was a pretty even matchup.
2006 BCS Championship Game
#1: Ohio State, Big Ten champ and unbeaten
#2: two one-loss teams
* Florida, #2 in both polls with a loss to Auburn
* Michigan, #3 in both polls with a loss to Ohio State
It is interesting that we almost saw this one coming. Starting with the preseason, people were looking at Florida's schedule and saying 'Good grief that's murderer's row! If there's a bunch of one-loss teams vying for a spot and they're one of them, Florida should get it before anyone else.' Ohio State was a runaway preseason #1. Following their annihilation of Notre Dame, Michigan quickly rose into the top five and by midseason people were wondering if the NC game would basically be played on Nov 18.
Michigan's loss to Ohio State dropped them to #3 in both polls, trailing USC by the slimmest of margins but still ahead of them in the BCS due to computer rankings. However USC was upset by UCLA and Florida defeated 10-win Arkansas by 10 points in the SECCG. What followed was a huge controversy.
Big Ten fans wanted to see a rematch between their conference's teams. With USC having lost earlier in the day, CBS openly campaigned for Florida - going through a game by game comparison of who each team had beaten. Following the game, Urban Meyer did the same and SEC commissioner Mike Slive backed him up, saying that if Florida was left out it was proof that the sport needed a playoff. Jim Tressel, who prior to their game in November had said that if Ohio State lost to Michigan his team wouldn't deserve a second chance, abstained from voting in the final poll. Between the conference championship win, campaigning, debate points made, and perhaps a desire to see a true national champion, both polls jumped Florida over Michigan. The computers awarded a tie - with Michigan gaining an advantage over Florida scheduling an additional game against a I-AA team and Florida gaining an advantage as margin of victory was no longer being used.
So 2006 joined 1998 and 2000 as seasons in which there were a few teams in contention for the #2 spot and it was awarded to a team from the state of Florida. Unlike the Seminoles, the Gators proved that they did in fact belong in that game, but also for the first time a major media station openly campaigned to voters for one team's inclusion over the other. It's impossible to say whether, without CBS's campaigning, Florida would have still jumped Michigan... but in fairness to the Gators, ESPN/ABC had all but openly campaigned for a Michigan/Ohio State rematch for several weeks before their game in November.
In summary?
I think there's a moderate regional bias in voting which places East Coast teams over West Coast team over "Flyover" teams. In effect, this would give the ACC and Big East teams the biggest advantage as their conferences are located entirely on the East Coast, as well as some teams from the Big Ten and eastern half of the SEC. The Pac 10 champion faces an uphill battle for respect in the polls and the Big 12 champion a still steeper uphill battle. This is even evident among midmajors, as schools like Marshall and Miami were able to get a pretty good amount of publicity for their strong runs on just a season's notice, Fresno State some but not quite as much, and Boise State and TCU had to prove themselves for a few seasons before being taken seriously.
Proximity to a major media center plays another role in creating bias. New York and California schools would have the edge here... although NY isn't really a football state. However, East Coast media tends to focus pretty heavily on the Florida schools when they're good - FSU, Miami, and UF. Consider that, despite being involved in numerous controversial seasons, the only time a Florida school has been left out of the title game was Miami in favor of another Florida school - FSU. While California schools have suffered three exclusions from either the title game (UCLA 98, USC 03) or the at large bid (Cal 04), in two of those instances they were the voters' top choice for that bid and in the other UCLA was left out in favor of a Florida school.
The highlight reel effect, in the absence of nationwide broadcasting of the actual games, simultaneously portrays the team in focus in a positive light and their opponents in a negative light. Specific to the Big 12 vs Pac 10 selection controversies, this can be seen in both the poll ranking and poll-based SOS trends. In general, the Big 12 ca 1998-03 (ie, up until the North's three season collapse) probably benefited in terms of total number of teams able to crack the top 10 or top 15 by having these teams put under less of a microscope. At the same time, their top team probably had a tougher time getting into the top 2 of the human polls for the same reason.
Past performance from the previous season/seasons is of course a huge factor. This affects both preseason ranking and how seriously the voters are willing to consider a team even late in the season vs how much they consider a good record to be a bit of a fluke. You could cite 98 Wisconsin, 00 Washington, 01 Illinois, 01 Maryland, 03 LSU and 04 Auburn as examples of this. (and note the difference in LSU's treatment in the polls four years later, after several successful seasons and moving back into the national spotlight) This season you could say that Kansas, Missouri, and Arizona State have suffered a similar fate, although the extreme rash of upsets has given each of these schools the opportunity to control their own destiny at some point during the season, and Missouri may have even gotten a second chance at that.
Thursday, November 15
the seven contenders
The tenth BCS season is almost over, and for the seventh time there won't be a clear #1 and #2. As the debate begins to take shape, seven teams have emerged with anything more than a snowball's chance in hell of making in into the National Championship game. Here are their resumes and my early thoughts on their chances of actually playing in the title game. Additionally I have noted their starting quarterback, offensive ranking, and defensive ranking (recall that all 9 BCS champions have had a Jr/Sr QB and a top 10 scoring defense).
1. LSU
Key Wins:
* Va Tech (BCS #10) 48-7
* Florida (BCS #12) 28-24
* Auburn (BCS #28) 30-24
Losses:
* at Kentucky (BCS #23) 43-37 3OT
Big Games Remaining:
* SEC Championship (prob - BCS #9 Georgia)
QB: Matt Flynn (Sr, 125.4 rtg)
Off: #11 scoring
Def: #9 scoring
Outlook: While Kansas could theoretically pass LSU by running the table, Oregon is both too far behind in the BCS points table and plays a weaker schedule from here out (due to SECCG), so the Tigers have all but assured themselves of at least the #2 spot in all polls assuming they win out. LSU controls their own destiny more than any other team right now. However, the SEC East winner will be a huge challenge and, though the team is not very strong, the McFadden-Jones duo could pull an upset in the regular season finale.
LSU has numerous victories over ranked teams, but all have either come at home or possibly in a neutral setting (SECCG?). However, their only loss was on the road in 3 OT's to a ranked team.
2. Oregon
Key Wins:
* @ Michigan (BCS #21) 39-7
* USC (BCS #11) 24-17
* Arizona State (BCS #8) 31-20
Losses:
* Cal (BCS #31) 31-24
Big Games Remaining:
* none
QB: Dennis Dixon (Sr, 163.1 rtg)
Off: #5 scoring
Def: #31 scoring
Outlook: First thing's first. While nobody on Oregon's schedule ranks among the BCS top 32, both Arizona and UCLA are road games and both Arizona and Oregon State defeated the Ducks last season. 2007 has had little in common with 2006 for UO, and they will have to focus on their own games and not what's going on in the BCS to make sure things stay that way.
Then would come the next part. Twice in the past, Oregon has finished a season with just one loss and wound up shafted by the BCS. In 2001, a one-loss Nebraska team was controversially chosen to play against unanimous #1 Miami over Oregon despite the Ducks #2 ranking in the polls versus the Huskers' #4. Computer polls and additional numerical modifiers to the more complicated BCS formula of the day, specifically Strength of Schedule, hurt the Ducks. In 2005, it was the human polls that had Oregon at #6 getting edged out by two teams with two losses apiece, #4 Ohio State and #5 Notre Dame, for an at-large berth. Never fear, the computers had Oregon at #5 while they had Notre Dame all the way down at #11 -- more than enough for the Ducks to move to second in line for an at-large berth. However, a special clause Notre Dame has with the BCS allowed the Irish to circumvent the actual rankings, and the Ducks were left out once again.
Unfortunately for the Ducks, this season could wind up the same way. If LSU and Kansas both win all the rest of their games, then it would be tough to justify leaving out the 13-0 Jayhawks, fresh off back-to-back victories over two teams currently in the BCS top 5, in favor of a pair of teams with a loss apiece. Historically, the only unbeaten BCS team ever left out of the championship game was Auburn in 2004, and that was in favor of two other unbeaten teams. With LSU comfortably in first place at the moment, that would mean Oregon once again getting the short end of the stick. Fortunately for the Ducks, the same jump is unlikely to happen should Oklahoma or Missouri win the Big 12. Ducks fans should don their Chase Daniel jerseys (come on, everybody loves Chase Daniel) in the regular season finale and probably pull for the Sooners in the B12CG regardless of which North team makes it... even though there is no love between OU and UO after their last two games.
Oregon has a statement road win at Michigan, and they'd really like the Wolverines to stay in the top 25 by beating Ohio State. However, their loss was at home and that team, Cal, is currently unranked in the polls.
3. Kansas
Key Wins:
* none
Losses:
* none
Big Games Remaining:
* Missouri (BCS #5)
* Big 12 Championship (prob - BCS #4 Oklahoma)
QB: Todd Reesing (So, 151.8 rtg)
Off: #2 scoring
Def: #2 scoring
Outlook: The Jayhawks are a very interesting team. Aside from Hawaii, they are the only unbeaten team in division I-A, and they are the only unbeaten from a BCS conference. Statistically they are dominant, having numerical rankings that rival those of 2001 Miami, considered by many to have been the greatest team of all-time. However, they have done all of this against a schedule that ranks #97 on Sagarin's computer (comparatively, Hawaii's ranks #157 - even some div I-AA teams have faced tougher schedules! - but I digress...). While LSU is 5-1 vs Sagarin's top 30, Kansas has yet to face a top 30 opponent with their best victory over #39 Oklahoma State. However, after what should be an easy win against pitiful Iowa State, Kansas will host Missouri and Heisman contender QB Chase Daniel before possibly playing in the Big 12 Championship game against an Oklahoma team they'd managed to avoid with their regular season schedule.
Unfortunately for them, Kansas has had the reputation of a doormat team throughout most of the BCS era, and their easy first eleven games have left them with lots of ground to make up in the polls. If LSU and Oregon win out, it will be difficult for Kansas to move into the #2 spot in either the Coaches or Harris poll, though I wouldn't rule out the possibility. However, that may not matter. If Kansas and LSU both win out, the computer polls portion of the formula will likely put Kansas #1 and LSU #2. Kansas would be a full two spots ahead of Oregon in the computer polls and likely not a full spot behind them in each of the human polls. If the top three win out, I give Kansas slightly better than a 50% chance of being in the BCS title game.
4. Oklahoma
Key Wins:
* Texas (BCS #13) 28-21
* Missouri (BCs #5) 41-31
Losses:
* at Colorado 27-24
Big Games Remaining:
* Big 12 Championship (Kansas/Missouri winner will be BCS #3 or 4)
QB: Sam Bradford (Fr, 180.4 rtg)
Off: #3 scoring
Def: #11 scoring
Outlook: The Sooners began the season making strong statements that they should be ranked #1, blowing out team after team including a 51-13 win over Miami which had looked more impressive then than it does now. One bad half cost them a game at Colorado, but their freshman QB responded in back to back wins over Texas and Missouri. OU finishes the season at Texas Tech and vs rival Oklahoma State - two teams with explosive offenses but offering much resistance on the other side of the ball. UT scored a combined 97 points against those two schools and Oklahoma should be able to do the same for two victories.
The BCS spells trouble for the Sooners, though. Even if they win out, OU probably will not be ranked in the top two in either poll. For one, they're a Big 12 team which has historically not been viewed favorably by BCS voters (for those who just spat out their drink, I'll explain in another post this week). Second, OU is down around 7th in the computer poll average. It is unlikely that the conference championship can vault them above both LSU and Oregon in the computer average, which is what would need to happen if OU finishes 3rd in the polls.
The Kansas-Missouri game also hurts the Sooners. If Kansas wins then OU will get to face a 12-0 team the first week in December, but it will hurt their other major victory as Missouri will drop out of the top 10. If Missouri wins, then not only will OU never get to face Kansas, but should they beat Missouri then they will have dealt Mizzou a second loss, hurting the strength of their previous victory. I believe it will be slightly beneficial to OU if Kansas wins that game. Either way, though, they are hurting from the lack of a big-time nonconference victory (LSU doesn't have to worry about Va Tech and the SEC East champion giving each other a loss). And the fact that they lost to Colorado, rather than a team hovering in or around the top 25 like Kentucky and Cal, also hurts them. Because of this, Oklahoma will have the most difficult time out of all the Big 12 contenders trying to jump Oregon. Realistically, they need LSU or Oregon to lose.
Oklahoma does not have an impressive road victory, but they have won one big game at a neutral site (vs Texas in Dallas) and will have the possibility to win another in the B12CG. Their only loss was on the road, but against an unranked opponent.
5. Missouri
Key Wins:
* at Illinois (BCS #19) 40-34
Losses:
* at Oklahoma (BCS #4) 41-31
Big Games Remaining
* at Kansas (BCS #3)
* Big 12 Championship Game (prob - BCS #4 Oklahoma)
QB: Chase Daniel (Jr, 154.7 rtg)
Off: #7 scoring
Def: #32 scoring
Outlook: Like Kansas, Missouri's name will hurt them more than anything else. And unlike Kansas, their record cannot end in that pretty "-0". However, if Illinois beats Northwestern, and Kansas and Oklahoma don't choke away some conference games which are very winnable for them, Mizzou may end up having played four games against BCS top 15 opposition... possibly three against BCS top 10s (OU twice). The computers are already giving them some love at #5, and their SOS (currently #52 on Sagarin's) would probably drop into the top 20, maybe top 10, should they make it to the B12CG. I can't see BCS voters putting this particular team in their top 2 should LSU and Oregon win out, but if they end the season beating Kansas and OU, Missouri might be able to be behind Oregon by less than a full spot (remember, fractional points awarded based on actual vote totals) and be in position to hope that they somehow vault up to #1 in the computer polls. Truthfully I don't know how likely that is because those comp polls can change significantly from week to week. It'll probably be possible to predict after the Kansas game, but maybe not before it. So I'll tentatively say that if Missouri wins out along with LSU and Oregon, Mizzou has barely under a 50% chance of making it an all-Tigers NC game.
Missouri has faced all of its tough competition on the road. They have a win at Illinois, travel to Kansas in two weeks, and could play the B12CG at a neutral site. Their loss came at Oklahoma, a tough place to visit. They are in the unique position of possibly being able to avenge their loss.
6. West Virginia
Key Wins:
* at Rutgers (BCS #32) 31-3
Losses:
* at South Florida 21-13
Big Games Remaining:
* at Cincinnati (BCS #22)
* Connecticut (BCS #24)
QB: Pat White (Jr, 157.7 rtg)
Off: #10 scoring
Def: #10 scoring
Outlook: Each of the five teams above WVU in the BCS standings would stay ahead of the Mountaineers if they win out, and Ohio State may be able to pass them with a road win over Michigan. That means that of the six other teams listed here, probably five need to lose. With OSU having just one game left, Oregon having an easy finish, and the Big 12 setup looking like a mini-tournament (meaning one team will probably win out because they can't both lose when they play each other), WVU has very slim odds of even having the opportunity to move into the top 2. On top of that, Cincinnati is a team who could really cause them problems and UConn has exceeded everybody's expectations with their play. At this point, WVU is playing for a conference championship and BCS berth, while hoping for an unlikely multiple-upset miracle to have a shot at playing in the NC game.
7. Ohio State
Key Wins:
* at Penn State (BCS #26) 37-17
* Wisconsin (BCS #25) 38-17
Losses:
* Illinois (BCS #19) 28-21
Big Games Remaining:
* at Michigan (BCS #21)
QB: Todd Boeckman (Jr, 154.3 rtg)
Off: #30 scoring
Def: #1 scoring
Outlook: While an easier schedule can be the ticket to an unbeaten season, Ohio State is now facing the tradeoff. Lose one game, by having an off week or an outstanding performance by the opponent or a combination of both, and you're getting no help from the BCS computers trying to climb back into the top 2. The fact that they lost just last week doesn't help their poll rankings, but regardless of that the computers have them below LSU, Oregon, Kansas, and Missouri... and Oklahoma would of course pass them if they win the B12CG. This means that the Buckeyes basically need five of the above six teams to lose, an unlikely scenerio. On the plus side, though, they only have to win one more game to put themselves into a position where they've done their part in trying to pull off a BCSCG selection miracle, and it is against LLLLLLLLLLoyd Carr's team. (at 5-1 against Cooper and 1-5 against Tressel, this game will also determine whether Carr has a winning or losing record against OSU, as this is likely to be his last season coaching Michigan)
