Sunday, November 18

Post-W12 BCS Fallout

I think I'm first to the post among the resident bloggers here, so I'll take this. (Watch James be writing at the same time I am.) The next round of BCS rankings is out already, and here's what we're looking at:

1 - LSU (.990)
2 - Kansas (.949)
3 - West Virginia (.888)
4 - Missouri (.871)
5 - Ohio State (.860)
6 - Arizona State (.802)
15 - Hawaii (.425)

- The top 4 aren't surprising to me at all, including the gap between the teams. I'm a little surprised that OSU is as close to 3rd as they are. I think they're close to a unanimous #5 in both polls, though, which would explain a lot.
- Whichever computer ranking still has OSU as the #1 team in the country should probably be shot.
- The best case scenario for the non-Big 12 players is this (I think): Kansas wins next week, then loses to OU (or, even better, Texas). If Missouri wins, the computer boost they get may hurt all the other teams a bit if they turn around and lose; even though the order shouldn't matter, it may.
- WVU needs to root for Georgia Tech this week; one computer poll has Georgia above WVU and the only thing that will likely change that is a loss. Sure, they could count on SOS to play itself out, but they'd rather take the sure thing.
- I doubt that ASU will be able to pass Ohio State in the Colley Matrix, at least. OSU is #2 in that ranking, but Arizona State's next opponent, USC, is pretty low in Colley's rankings. Arizona is way down in that ranking, too - 77th as of last week, but that will obviously go up with the win over Oregon. Of course, previous CM #5 OSU did jump to #2 with a win over old #23 Michigan, so it could happen.

I still see a zero-loss or one-loss B12 championship team going to the title game at this point, so I'm mainly focused on what would happen if that doesn't happen. It's more fun that way. In addition, I'd really rather see Arizona State over Ohio State if everyone in front of them falls, as they actually play in a good conference. The B10 this season has been at best flagrantly mediocre, and I think the top end of the Pac-10 is at least better than the B10, if not the overall depth too.

What'll it take for that to happen? Arizona State needs a big win this week to at least mix the votes some between them and Ohio State. A UGA loss wouldn't hurt them either, as it'd take some pressure off the #7 spot in the polls; it looks like there are some pollsters ranking them below UGA already, which I don't entirely get. Still, there's plenty of time.