Of course, when I make a post called "The Six Contenders" that includes LSU, Kansas, Missouri, WVU, OSU, and ASU as the title contenders... somebody's gonna chime in "Hey what about Georgia? They just need to win out and have the five teams above them with at least one game remaining all lose. Not completely impossible!"
For that matter, Virginia Tech merely needs all of that to happen PLUS a Georgia loss to Georgia Tech... and that voters forget their 48-7 massacre at the hands of LSU. Then again, LSU losing to Arkansas and in the SECCG would take care of that.
Oregon... all that and a VT loss in one of their final two games?
How far down does it go? Let's find out, but first, let's take a look at each conference's worst-case scenerio.
ACC:
The worst-case scenerio would be UVA beating Virginia Tech, Miami beating BC, and BC beating UVA.
The VT-UVA winner is guaranteed to have 10 wins.
The conference champion will have at least 10 wins, 11 if BC beats Miami.
Big East:
The worst-case scenerio is WVU beats UConn and loses to Pitt. Or is UConn winning worse? Whatever.
The winner of the WVU-UConn game will have at least 10 wins.
Big Ten:
Ohio State has finished the season 11-1.
Should all four teams above them lose, OSU will move to #1 in the BCS Standings. This means that at most one team currently below the Buckeyes can play in the BCS title game!
Illinois has been eliminated from NC game contention at 9-3. However, a BCS bowl is still a possibility for them.
Big 12:
Worst-case: OK State beats OU, A&M beats Texas, Missouri beats Kansas, and OU beats Missouri.
Kansas, Missouri, OU, or UT will win the B12CG. That team will have at least 10 wins. Kansas already has 11 wins.
If either Texas or OU wins this weekend, then the B12CG winner would have at least 11 wins and at most 2 losses.
Pac 10:
USC beats Arizona State and loses to UCLA. ASU loses to Arizona. Oregon loses to Oregon State and UCLA.
It is possible for USC or Oregon to win the Pac 10 at 9-3.
SEC:
LSU loses to Arkansas, Tennessee loses to Kentucky, Georgia loses to Georgia Tech. Georgia beats LSU. Florida loses to Florida State.
LSU, Georgia, or Tennessee will win the SECCG. That team will have at least 10 wins.
Ohio State is 11-1 and will not fall below anyone not currently ranked above them, except maybe ASU if they win out.
Kansas can finish at worst 11-1. Which two-loss or non-BCS teams could be ahead of a 11-1 Jayhawks team?
* Big 12 champion. (not 10-3 OU)
* Missouri by beating Kansas.
* LSU or Georgia. (probably not 10-3 Tennessee or other 3-loss)
* ACC Champion. (not 10-3 BC)* Big East Champion.
* Pac 10 Champion. (not 9-3 USC/Oregon)
* Unbeaten Hawaii.
A BCS team will need 10 wins to have any chance and Hawaii needs to win out. With one loss already, Boise State is eliminated even if they beat Hawaii.
The most obvious consequence of this is that Florida is eliminated from NC contention, being able to at best reach 9-3. While all the teams above them could lose, it is unlikely that a 9-3 team would be ranked above a 11-1 team (Kansas's worst-case scenerio) even without any quality wins for KU. Besides that, 11-2 Missouri would probably still edge them out.
Realistically, that leaves fifteen teams in any kind of contention - the top 16 minus Florida. Tennessee and UConn could make it by some stretch, but it's not very likely that a 3-loss team would jump a 1-loss Kansas or that UConn with two losses in the Big East would jump KU and Mizzou.
With that in mind, let's see what we could make happen.
BCS Ranking - Team - Makes Title Game by wining out plus losses to:
1. LSU - no help needed
2. Kansas - no help needed
3. West Virginia - LSU loses or B12N champion loses
4. Missouri - no help needed
5. Ohio State - two of: LSU, B12N champion, West Virginia losing
6. Arizona State - LSU, B12N champion, West Virginia all lose
Now for the much more unlikely scenerios. Note that these are not the only way these teams can make it to the title game...
7. Georgia - Tennessee loses to Kentucky. B12N winner loses conference championship. West Virginia loses to UConn. Probably still need ASU to lose to USC.
8. Virginia Tech - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. LSU also loses to Arkansas. B12N winner loses conference championship. West Virginia loses to UConn. Might need Oklahoma to lose to OK State.
9. Oregon - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. Kansas loses to Missouri. Missouri loses to Oklahoma. West Virginia loses to UConn. ASU loses to USC. VT loses again to BC. Might need Oklahoma to lose to OK State and Georgia to lose to GT.
10. Oklahoma - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. West Virginia loses to UConn. ASU loses to USC. Probably need losses from Georgia, Oregon, and VT. If not, hope victory in B12CG convinces voters to move them up.
11. USC - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. Kansas loses to Missouri. Missouri loses to Oklahoma. West Virginia loses to UConn. Georgia loses to GT. VT loses again to BC. Oregon loses to Oregon State. Oklahoma loses to OK State. Texas loses to Texas A&M.
12. Florida - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. Kansas loses to Missouri. Missouri loses to Oklahoma. West Virginia loses to UConn and Pitt. Arizona State loses to USC and Arizona. USC loses to UCLA. Georgia loses to GT. BC loses to Miami and wins ACCCG. Oregon loses to Oregon State. Oklahoma loses to OK State. Texas loses to Texas A&M. UConn loses to West Virginia. (even then, I don't think they get in at 9-3, but this would give them their best chance)
13. Texas - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. West Virginia loses to UConn. Arizona State loses to USC. Oklahoma loses to OK State. Probably need USC to lose to UCLA, although if B12N champ is Kansas that might help. Hope voters regard 11-2 and B12CG victory highly enough to vault the Horns over everyone else.
14. Boston College - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. Missouri beats Kansas. Missouri loses to Oklahoma. West Virginia loses to UConn. Arizona State loses to USC. Georgia loses to GT. Oregon loses to Oregon State. Oklahoma loses to OK State. USC loses to UCLA. Texas loses to Texas A&M. Might help if Va Tech beats UVA.
15. Hawaii - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. LSU also loses to Arkansas. Missouri beats Kansas. Missouri loses to Oklahoma. West Virginia loses to UConn and Pitt. Arizona State loses to USC and Arizona. Georgia loses to Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech loses to UVA. Oregon loses to Oregon State. Oklahoma loses to OK State. USC loses to UCLA. Texas loses to Texas A&M. BC loses to Miami. Might need BC to beat UVA. Then hope voters are willing to rank them above 11-1 Kansas and 11-2 Missouri for beating Boise State and Washington.
16. Virginia - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. LSU also loses to Arkansas. Missouri beats Kansas. Missouri loses to Oklahoma. West Virginia loses to UConn and Pitt. Arizona State loses to USC and Arizona. Georgia loses to Georgia Tech. Oregon loses to Oregon State. Oklahoma loses to OK State. USC loses to UCLA. Texas loses to Texas A&M. BC beating Miami might help. Then hope voters are willing to rank them above 11-1 Kansas and 11-2 Missouri.
17. Illinois - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. A bunch of other stuff... and hope that Tennessee doesn't move above them, and hope they're ranked above a Missouri team with a better overall record and who beat Illinois. Right. At 9-3, the Illini are eliminated.
18. Tennessee - LSU loses to Arkansas. Missouri beats Kansas. Missouri loses to Oklahoma. West Virginia loses to UConn and Pitt. Arizona State loses to USC and Arizona. Georgia loses to Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech loses to UVA. Oregon loses to Oregon State. Oklahoma loses to OK State. USC loses to UCLA. Texas loses to Texas A&M. BC loses to Miami. BC beats UVA. Might need Hawaii to lose. Then hope voters are willing to rank them above 11-1 Kansas and 11-2 Missouri.
19. Boise State - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. LSU also loses to Arkansas. Missouri beats Kansas. Missouri loses to Oklahoma. West Virginia loses to UConn and Pitt. Arizona State loses to USC and Arizona. Georgia loses to Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech loses to UVA. Oregon loses to Oregon State. Oklahoma loses to OK State. USC loses to UCLA. Florida loses to Florida State. Texas loses to Texas A&M. BC loses to Miami. BC beats UVA. Then hope voters are willing to rank them above 11-1 Kansas, 11-2 Missouri, and the Tennessee team above them who just knocked off LSU... for beating Hawaii. Also hope UConn's victory over the team currently ranked #3 doesn't let them jump Boise. Right.
20. UConn - Tennessee beats Kentucky and LSU. LSU also loses to Arkansas. Missouri beats Kansas. Missouri loses to Oklahoma. Arizona State loses to USC and Arizona. Georgia loses to Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech loses to UVA. Oregon loses to Oregon State. Oklahoma loses to OK State. USC loses to UCLA. Florida loses to Florida State. Texas loses to Texas A&M. BC loses to Miami. BC beats UVA. Then hope voters are willing to rank them above 11-1 Kansas, 11-2 Missouri, and the Tennessee team above them who just knocked off LSU... for beating West Virginia. On that note, WVU might need to beat Pitt.
21. Clemson - Beat South Carolina, move into the top 15 from everyone else playing each other, hope aliens start abducting the other teams.
Notre Dame - Lose to Stanford. Reveal to the world that there is a clause in the BCS contract which gives Notre Dame a title berth if they have at least 10 wins or 10 losses. Then, line up facing the wrong direction against LSU and have Clausen start throwing interceptions. Hope they fall for it.
This weekend's weird BCSNC elimination games:
* Kentucky over Tennessee plus Georgia over Georgia Tech eliminates everyone below Georgia.
* Kansas over Missouri probably eliminates everyone below Va Tech, except Texas and OU as they could defeat the Jayhawks head to head.
* Oklahoma over Oklahoma State eliminates everyone below Oklahoma.
* Texas over Texas A&M eliminates everyone below Texas. (50-50 for USC)
* LSU over Arkansas eliminates everyone below Boston College and eliminates Va Tech. (LSU 48, VT 7)
* ASU over USC eliminates everyone below Boston College.
* Boston College over Miami eliminates everyone below Virginia.
Following this up with a "who's mathematically still alive for an at-large berth" would be interesting if 50 pages long. That'll come next week when there are much fewer games remaining...
