Alright, here's the analysis of some possibilities and my predictions for who will be in a BCS Bowl.
First, let's take the conference champions:
ACC: Va Tech OR Boston College
Big East; West Virginia
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big 12: Missouri OR Oklahoma
Pac 10: USC OR Arizona State OR UCLA.
SEC: LSU OR Tennessee
The Big 12, Pac 10, and SEC all have numerous teams in the top 14 standings of the BCS... the SEC and Big 12 sporting 3 apiece in the top 10! Those two conferences are basically guaranteed an at-large berth at this point, so let's look at their teams:
Big 12:
* If Mizzou beats Oklahoma then it's simple. Mizzou goes to the BCS Championship game and Kansas goes to the Fiesta Bowl (conference tie-in).
* If Oklahoma beats Mizzou, then it gets a little complicated. Oklahoma gets the conference's automatic berth and the at-large goes to either Missouri or Kansas. I'm going to guess that voters don't drop Mizzou below the Kansas team that they just beat, and say it goes to Mizzou. Tough luck for the 11-1 Jayhawks.
SEC:
* If LSU beats Tennessee, then LSU gets the automatic bid and Georgia get the at large.
* If Tennessee beats LSU, then Tennessee gets the automatic bid and Georgia gets the at large.
Big Ten:
* Ohio State has the automatic berth.
* Illinois is currently the BCS #15 team. There is no way for them to pass Georgia or Kansas, so those two teams already have BCS priority over them. Boston College, Hawaii, and Arizona State are numbers 11-13 respectively, so those teams winning keeps them ahead of Illinois. The Illini need at least TWO of those three teams to lose.
Pac 10:
* If USC wins, then they get the automatic bid.
* If USC loses and Arizona State wins, then ASU gets the automatic bid.
* If USC and ASU both lose, the UCLA gets the automatic bid.
* If USC loses, they probably don't fall from the top 14.
* If ASU loses, they fall out of the top 18.
* Even by winning, Oregon probably doesn't pass Illinois or the ACC #2.
So basically, if ASU wins, the Pac 10 will probably get 2 BCS teams. If ASU loses, they'll have just one unless USC loses to UCLA.
ACC:
* If Virginia Tech beats Boston College, VT gets the automatic bid and BC drops out of the top 14.
* IF BC beats Va Tech, BC gets the automatic bid and VT probably remains in the top 14.
Big East:
* West Virginia has clinched the automatic bid.
* Nobody else is even in the BCS top 20.
So basically, we have Hawaii, Illinois, the Pac 10 runner up (ASU or USC), and the ACCCG loser all battling for 2 at-large berths. These are what WILL happen in each situation:
Hawaii win, ASU win, BC loss, Illinois watching:
* Hawaii and ASU go.
Hawaii win, ASU win, VT loss, Illinois watching:
* Hawaii goes for sure, I think VT stays above ASU controversially.
Hawaii win, ASU loss, BC loss, Illinois watching:
* Hawaii and Illinois go.
Hawaii win, ASU loss, VT loss, Illinois watching:
* Hawaii and VT go.
Hawaii win, USC loss, BC loss, Illinois watching:
* Hawaii and USC go.
Hawaii win, USC loss, VT loss, Illinois watching:
* Hawaii and VT go.
Hawaii loss, ASU win, BC loss, Illinois watching:
* ASU and Illinois go.
Hawaii loss, ASU win, VT loss, Illinois watching:
* ASU and VT go.
Hawaii loss, ASU loss, BC loss, Illinois watching:
Illinois and... wow. BC or Clemson? I'm guessing BC.
Hawaii loss, ASU loss, VT loss, Illinois watching:
VT and Illinois go.
Hawaii loss, USC loss, BC loss, Illinois watching:
USC and Illinois go.
Hawaii loss, USC loss, VT loss, Illinois watching:
VT and USC go.
What do I think will happen?
* Because God loves college football and would hate to see two teams who haven't beaten anyone in the top 15 both make it to the national championship game, Missouri gets revenge against Oklahoma.
* West Virginia just lollerskates to a 60 point win over Pittsburgh.
* The other Tigers have their way with the Ugly Dogs. (LSU wins SECCG)
* Virginia Tech psych students use behavior modification techniques to cause Frank Beamer to be physically unable to make the call for a prevent defense. (VT wins ACCCG)
* USC destroys UCLA. ASU beats Arizona.
* Hawaii handles Washington in a game that's close for 35 minutes.
In the season of surprises and upsets, the greatest surprise of all is that nothing crazy happens in the final week.
BCS Bowl teams are: Missouri, West Virginia, Ohio State, Georgia, Kansas, Virginia Tech, USC, LSU, Hawaii, ASU.
The BCS Championship Game is Missouri vs West Virginia.
The Rose Bowl is Ohio State vs USC.
The Sugar Bowl tie-in goes to LSU.
The Orange Bowl tie-in goes to Va Tech.
The Fiesta Bowl picks first since they lost Missouri. They replace them with another Big 12 team, Kansas.
Next the Orange Bowl picks Georgia, with some pressure from the Sugar Bowl not to leave them with an all-SEC matchup.
The Fiesta is up next, they pick hometown ASU.
The Sugar Bowl selects Hawaii.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs USC
Often times this matchup would determine national championships, but it's no disappointment to play for the Rose Bowl trophy alone. This features the #1 and #5 defenses and some powerful runningbacks.
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Hawaii
The nation's top scoring offense and an outstanding quarterback against a great secondary.
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas vs Arizona State
Two teams that nobody expected to be in a BCS bowl, and two teams who don't really have any big wins. One of them will prove that their record wasn't just the result of soft wins.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Georgia
Two teams who had to find their identity after some bad early losses.
BCS Championship: Missouri vs West Virginia
Two of the premiere quarterbacks in the NCAA with vastly different styles. Pat White is complimented by a duo of fearsome runningbacks while Chase Daniel has five great receivers to throw the ball to.
