Alabama Crimson Tide '09: Eerily similar to an article I would've posted last year had I written it

The 2008 Season in a Box
Ever get something from Brooks Brothers? I haven’t, but I imagine it comes in a pretty staid and standard box, and whatever you get in it is going to not only look solid at worst, it also cost the person who bought it a damn arm and a leg, because that place isn’t cheap. Still, given the option between Brooks Brothers and …well, nearly anywhere else, you’d probably choose Brooks Brothers if you cared about anything related to appearance at work. And we know that matters.

Of course, nobody told you that the stuff in there was off-brand and the shirts will rip after you wear them 10 times, but that happens sometimes. I mean, it’s not cheap.

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Really, there isn’t much reason why this season’s going to be that different. Even with the departure of the beautifully coiffed John Parker Wilson and workhorse RB Glen Coffee, Alabama’s in good shape to keep it going. JPW was a senior caretaker QB and not a world-beater, so the bar of competency is set pretty low for the guy who’ll be under center (likely Greg McElroy). Similarly, Coffee was good but the Tide RB stable is deep enough that they should be able to overcome his loss. Really, most of the other departures fall into that same category. Even the schedule is similar. If ‘Bama finished 5-7 this would be cause for concern, but that wasn’t the case.

On Offense
Saban hasn’t run a particularly showy offense since he got to Alabama; with the departure of John Parker Wilson to …well, the NFL might be a bit generous, but he’s gone at least. Since Greg McElroy looks like a poor man’s JPW at this point (his haircut isn’t nearly as nice), it’d make sense to expect the same kind of thing. Star Jackson slots in as the backup QB; he was a 2008 recruit but redshirted last season. He’s a dual-threat type QB (meaning at this stage of development, he can run and pass at about a 53% clip), so while he’ll be a useful player – and likely a standout player – a year or two down the road, at this point he’s pretty much strictly a change-of-pace player. McElroy, on the other hand, is strictly a game manager. He’ll be relied on to keep defenses honest and not just throw jump balls to Julio Jones.

Speaking of Jones, he absolutely qualifies as one of the few transcendent talents in the SEC, and he’s absolutely the only one who qualifies on this offense. As a true freshman, he was 2nd team in the SEC, which is a rare enough feat in most cases, but Jones was also the only passing threat on the team. 2nd WR Mike McCoy didn’t even get to 200 yards on the season, which is an impressive enough feat in its own right. Other than Jones, TE Nick Walker was the only guy who topped 200 yards on the season, and he graduated; TE duties will fall to Colin Peek. While there’s talent of the non-Julio Jones variety at WR, Jones is the only true passing threat on this team and that’ll likely continue this season. With true freshmen Kendall Kelly, Michael Bowman, and Kenny Bell arriving on campus this season, the future is in pretty decent shape, but the present is solely jump-ball territory.

Now, because the Tide are going to have to score at some point this season, that means it’ll fall to the running game. Even though Coffee has departed, Mark Ingram had a fantastic season as a redshirt freshman last year, running for 725 yards at a 5.1 ypc clip. He’ll likely slot in as the primary RB. Of the other returning rushers, Roy Upchurch and Terry Grant are the guys everyone’s heard of; Grant is the faster of the two backs, but he struggled with the system last season to the tune of only 2.5 ypc. Still, all three are legitimate backs and they’ll add true freshman Trent Richardson to the rotation. Richardson was one of the top backs of this year’s recruiting class, so he should step in nicely.

Alabama’s offensive schemes and attack methods for this season will look a lot like last year; meaning get ready for a lot of power running. I see Alabama’s offensive endgame as similar to LSU’s from a few years back; the RB stable is certainly there, but they’re still lacking the requisite passing game to really set everything in motion. Star Jackson may be the guy who gets them over that hump, but he’s still likely a year off from contributing in an every-down role.

On Defense and Special Teams
It’s more of the same on D; it’ll hurt that Rashad Johnson departs – not only because he was a 2nd-team All-American last year, but he was also the 2nd leading tackler on the team. Unlike most teams, this isn’t a bad sign with Saban’s defense; the FS is used as a rover, which means he’ll get more freedom to attack where he sees fit. Typically the FS serves as a “robber” over the middle (Saban prefers a Cover 1 scheme over Cover 2), meaning he also has the freedom to jump routes. Mark Barron will slot in as the new starter.

However, aside from Johnson’s departure the defense returns nearly intact. Even departed DE Bobby Greenwood will get replaced by Lorenzo Washington, who got displaced by Terrence Cody at NT – possibly literally. (Yes, there’s your requisite fat joke.) With Cody on the line, it’ll be an above-average line at worst; in all likelihood, they’ll be one of the better lines in the SEC.

Saban’s LB corps is one of the deepest and best in the SEC, if not the country. Rolando McClain returns at MLB after a campaign where he finished as a 3rd-team All-American; this year only Brandon Spikes has a mildly clear edge over McClain for the title of “Best LB in the SEC”. Aside from McClain, there’s still tons of talent; Brandon Fanney and Dont’A Hightower are the 3rd and 4th leading tacklers from last season, respectively and even Cory Reamer filled in decently after Jimmy Johns got busted for selling half the nose candy of Colombia. These guys probably won’t get a lot of PT this year, but don’t be surprised if Nico Johnson and Tana Patrick start making contributions sooner rather than later.

As far as secondaries go, this hasn’t been the best unit Saban’s fielded. As mentioned before, Barron steps into the FS / robber position outlined above, but everyone else returns. Javier Arenas is unquestionably the best CB of the bunch, and SS Justin Woodall was 2nd on the team in interceptions. Woodall may not have quite as much freedom to roam the field compared to last year, but he should be able to produce similar numbers.

Both K Leigh Tiffin and P PJ Fitzgerald return for their senior seasons; Tiffin in particular has excelled, especially at kicks under 40 yards. Fitzgerald isn’t anything special, though. Javier Arenas doubles as the return specialist for both kickoffs and punts; last year alone he returned 3 punts for TDs. Saying he’ll be dangerous would be a mild understatement.

So What’s Their Bowl Game
It’s always nice when you can list “National Championship Game” as a realistic hope, isn’t it? The schedule is navigable as these things go; picking up two road games at Kentucky and MSU are just about as easy as they come. However, the other two are doozies: Auburn’s at Auburn this year, and a road game at Ole Miss pretty early in the season as these things go (October 10th). That Ole Miss game will serve as the barometer for the season; win that game and they’re in the national title hunt up until – and perhaps after – the SEC Championship Game. Lose that, and they’ll absolutely need to run the table. Virginia Tech and LSU should be tough, but both are winnable. At 11-1 in the regular season, they’ll need to beat Florida to have a shot for the BCS Championship Game, but a BCS bowl as bid #2 isn’t unrealistic; if they don’t snag that, it’ll likely be the Capital One Bowl.

Simming the Sugar Bowl

Continuing our NCAA09 tour through the BCS, we've got Chris taking Alabama and Russell playing as Utah. All-American difficulty, 7-minute Quarters, Even Teams.

Utah takes the opening kickoff to the 40. First play is an option, Brian Johnson keeps it for a 12 yard gain. Eddie Wide takes over as a surprising starter at RB, and the option attack begins. Stalling out as the Utes approach the red zone, they hit a 44 yard FG.

Following two runs for 8 yards, JPW fires incomplete on 3rd. Terry Grant gives Bama just enough to convert the 4th, and the Tahhhde roll on. Bama rotates to Glen Coffee, who continues to pound the ball. Eventually they punt, old school.

Mack comes back in at RB and converts a key third down option. The Ute offense keeps cranking out first down on the ground, again stalling out nearing the red zone. Field goal and it's 6-0.

Alabama needs all of two plays to bust a 57 yard TD run by Terry Grant and it's 7-6.

A tired defense takes the field and it looks like trouble as the Utes gain 8 yards on their first play from scrimmage. End of the first quarter. Johnson picks up the first down then takes over the drive, scrambling for consecutive big plays. The drive ends with a 18 yard TD run by Darrell Mack.

Alabama takes the ball and this time they come out throwing. A quick first down pass to Grant, followed by a nice run by Grant. But it's for naught, drive ends in a punt.

Utah's offense finally stalls out from the get-go, ending with an incompletion to a tightly covered receiver.

This time around, Terry Grant comes out with a head full of steam, making defenders miss and picking up more big plays. Nikita Stover makes a key catch on 3rd down to keep the drive alive at midfield. Grant picks up a ten yard run on second down, but it's called back for offensive holding! "Fuck it, I'm going deep" John Parker thinks, clearly pissed off about the call. It's complete for 35 yards to Mike McCoy. Two plays later, Stover hauls it in in the end zone and the Tide have retaken the lead 14-13.

Utah takes over at their 34 with just 28 seconds remaining and two timeouts. (it's not "times out" assholes, timeout is one fucking word) Johnson's first pass is drilled deep into a cornerback's backside on first down. Second down, the play action isn't fooling anybody, but Charlie Higgenbothem drops a sure interception. It will haunt the Tide, as Johnson completes a 46 yard bomb to Jereme Brooks. With time running out, the Utes take a field goal and a 16-14 lead at the half.

Alabama comes out in the third quarter with their newly installed "Spread Fail" package, copyright Tony Franklin. JP runs an option for a one-yard loss then throws a horrible incompletion on 3rd. But it's Stover hauling in the 4th down completion to the Utah 40! But Wilson returns to form throwing a deep pick.

Following a first down and a penalty, however, Brian Johnson returns the favor. Rolando McClain returns an interception just past midfield. With some momentum on his team's side, JPW fires a bullet to McCoy before the Tide are back to pounding away with Grant. The defense holds, and after a FG we're sitting at 17-16.

For shits and giggles, Brian Johnson throws a 70 yard out that's incomplete only because the safety went to Mohammad Massaquoi's school of catching. Utah turns back to the option game. Facing a third and ten, Bama's defense has the quarterback contained against the sideline. But Johnson lofts a pass to his tight end, twenty yard gain and a first down! Mack runs the ball to the 8 yard line on the following play, first and goal! We finish the third quarter with a 2 yard loss on a QB keeper, second and goal.

This is a key drive as we're now in the fourth quarter. Mack gets nailed at the line before Johnson completes a pass to the one yard line on third down. Utah lines up in a goalline power formation on 4th and goal! But it's a bluff, they call timeout with 1 second left on the playclock then kick a FG. 19-17, Utes.

Bama now needs to score. JPW starts the drive off on the right note with a 19 yard pass that's miraculously caught by Nick Walker (not Welkah). Grant softens up the defense with a five yard gain, then it's a slant to Stover. The Tide offense is showing balance, but after a 2 yard loss and an incompletion, Bama faces 3rd and 12. With a truly Innovative playcall, the offense runs a HB power and Grant takes it to the house! 25 yard TD run and they follow it up with a successful 2-point try, 25-19.

Utah gets a nice kickoff return to the 42 yard line, and they need a touchdown with 4:35 remaining. Matt Asiata gets things started with a 5 yard iso, but the gain is negated by a delay of game penalty as Johnson attempts to audible each receiver's route. After Johnson gains three yards, Utah faces a 3rd and 7. Johnson again audibles at the line, and completes a fade to his wide receiver. Shedding the tackle, the gain goes to the Alabama 15! Darrell Mack takes it to the 2, where the battle is on! First and goal: 1 yard gain by Mack. Second and goal: Johnson's nailed at the line. Third and goal: Johnson takes it in, and the Utes have an improbable 4th quarter lead by just a point!

Alabama takes the field with 1:37 remaining, trailing 26-25. Thinking they can fool the defense, Terry Grant takes the handoff but is held to a 3 yard gain. But Wilson forces the following pass into triple coverage, incomplete. On 3rd and 7, Wilson scrambles to his left and throws a deep bomb to McCoy, complete! Bama's nearing field goal range, and the playcalling goes conservative. Grant gains six yards on two carries, but is held to a 2 yard loss on 3rd down. The Tide line up for a field goal with 23 seconds, and it's wide right!

Not satisfied to merely win, Utah looks to humiliate the SEC runner up. They complete a 11 yard pass for a first down just to let Saban know that they fucking could, then kneel down on the ensuing play. Utah wins 26-25 in a back and forth game! Folks, the real Sugar Bowl will be nowhere near this competitive.

The Independence Bowl: something to watch during MSL's offline qualifiers

(disclaimer: if you don’t follow Starcraft, there’s going to be some comparisons that make no sense. But this game sucks – we had to do it to keep ourselves entertained.)

The Independence Bowl holds the distinction as the post-Christmas bowl most likely to slide into the ocean without anyone really caring. It's held in that bastion of civilization known as Shreveport, LA (population: you, if you're there) and routinely features teams that would travel well if they were actually good. Instead, the teams that end up here are often the kind of teams whose seasons not only derailed, but they plowed into the town center and killed a few innocent pedestrians along the way. (Remember Nebraska playing in the snow here a few years back? Yeah, it's like that.)

Occasionally they get lucky and run across some team that should've overachieved to get to where they are, but most of the time those fans are disappointed too. Bottom line: nobody really wants to go to Shreveport. Can you blame them?

Anyway, this year's teams fall into the first category; Alabama should've gone 9-3 if you listen to their fans, but realistically 7-5 was the likeliest outcome. Saban the sAviOr needs some time to take another job ....er, rebuild the program. That's no excuse for losing to Louisiana-Monroe, though – they’re the 910 of 1-A. On the other hand, Colorado beat Oklahoma and spent the rest of the past three months spinning its wheels. Seriously, it's like these guys shouldn't have even played the season. They started the season at .500, and that's where they are after the end of the season.

Fun fact: if Colorado wins this game, Alabama finishes the season 6-7 - the same record that got Mike Shula canned. Bet Saban won't get the same treatment.

Fun times: bring up Alabama’s bowl record from ’68 to ‘75 to a long-time fan. Then run like hell – they went 0-7-1.

Alabama (by Coach Pendley)

By the numbers, this team should probably be 8-4. Of course, by the numbers, six teams outscored them, so them's the breaks. It didn’t help that the Crimson Tide went into a crater like – fittingly – sAviOr v. Bisu, losing their last four in a row, none by more than a TD. The glass-half-full optimist will tell you that the team didn’t lose a single game by more than 7 points; he’s probably the same guy who keeps thinking Reach’s dynamite PvT is finally going to win him another starleague. Meanwhile …yeah, they lost four in a row. Thanks for showing up, guys.

QB John Parker Wilson is A) one hell of a honky and B) the fourth-leading passer in the SEC, provided you just look at his ypg. However, he has accuracy issues (54.9 completion percentage) and only a 15/11 ratio, putting him at 11th in passer rating in the SEC ahead of only MSU’s Wesley Carroll. Their running game is led by redshirt frosh Terry Grant, who averaged 4.95 ypc and scored 8 TDs. Personal favorite Jimmy Johns was a non-factor running the ball, spending most of his time blocking. The only truly dangerous player on the Crimson Tide offense is WR D.J. Hall, who was 2nd in the SEC at 78.9 ypg.

While DB Simeon Castille is the leader of the secondary, he passed the title of Ball Hawk on to Rashad Johnson, who pulled down 6 picks. DT Wallace Gilberry finally started living up to his billing, picking up 9 sacks on the season. Yardage-wise, they’re good but not great, but their peripherals aren’t spectacular – they allow 39% success on 3rd-down conversions, 65% success on 4th-down conversions, and 89% scores/possessions in the red zone.

Keys to Victory:
1: Win 3rd down. Colorado has a pitiful rate of conversions to begin with (only 34% success), so it’ll be up to Alabama to at least hold them to their season average (Colorado’s, not ‘Bama’s). They’re not a great punting team, either. On the other side of the ball, Alabama needs to get at least 40% of their conversions; if they can’t do that, then they’re putting it on the leg of P.J. Fitzgerald, who …sucks. 38.25 yards per punt.

2: Spire tech – go to the air against Colorado’s corners. Terrence Wheatley is an excellent corner (including his 5 picks on the season), but they allow 260 yards a game in the air. Their road pass D allows completions at a 60% rate, which is a full 8% better than their home D, so they can be beaten away from home. Wheatley defends Colorado’s main well, but their expansions are vulnerable; WR Matt Caddell should see some success.

3: Get it in the red zone. Yeah, I know that’s an obvious one, but as bad as Alabama’s D was in the red zone, Colorado’s was worse (91%). Since Colorado will likely score on ‘Bama once they hit the red zone, it’ll be critical to keep the scores even. Trade expansions if you have to, but they’ll need to trade the useless expos for Colorado’s valuable ones; if they can get TDs while limiting CU to FGs, that’ll add up.

Colorado (by Coach Lawrence)

With his crazy hook n ladders and assortment of other trick plays, Colorado coach Dan Hawkins, aka “The Dreamer,” recently stepped up from coaching at Boise State to a position in the Big 12 powerhouse Colorado MagicNs. Okay, if you consider that to even be a lateral transfer... well, good for you. Walking into a disaster scenerio, CU didn’t have the personnel to run Hawkins’ offense and didn’t even make it out of Big 12 North group play in 2006, finishing 2-10.

If you want something done right, do it yourself... and it you’re a few decades past eligibility, bring in your son. Since Cody Hawkins came in to take over the CU quarterback position, Colorado has... scored points on offense. Yeah, I know. The scarabs are pathing better and the storms are right where they should be, as Colorado has improved their passing totals from 118 ypg (!) in 2006 to 227 this season. A 2-0 conference start with a shocking upset of Oklahoma had CU thinking golden mouse, until they lost to both Kansas teams, got 5-pooled by Missouri, and blew a close one to Iowa State. It came down to their classic rivalry game with Nebraska, neither team defended well but Colorado used a big running game, trick plays, and +3 turnovers to win a 65-51 shootout. And with that, CU advanced to the elimination... oh wait no.

This is a very creative offense, using big plays and misdirection to eek out a near 4 ypc average on the ground (Hugh Charles averages 5.4) and compliment that with an adequate if non-stellar passing game – with no 50 ypg receiver. It’s come down to turnovers – 21 takeaways and 25 giveaways... when those have happened has pretty much determined win or lose. CB Terrence Wheatley has been absolutely huge in that department, picking off five passes on the season. The other player to watch out for has been inside linebacker Jordon Dizon, seemingly involved in half the defensive plays and returning a pick the distance himself.

Keys to Victory:
1. Protect your expansions... and the ball. In 6 victories Colorado is +4 TO; in 6 losses they’re -12. When you’re not great on offense and alright but not great on defense either, that’s going to be a pretty critical stat.

2. Stork-style pressure game... go 9/10 and keep the zeals coming. Colorado simply doesn’t have the talent to go Bisu-style FE into delayed harassment against the sAviOr’s Bama team. CU has the talent at cornerback to make a few big plays on defense if Wilson’s making hurried decisions, and this will help their rush defense which has at times been manhandled by the more physical teams (165.5 ypg allowed in losses).

3. Cannon-whore! Against Bama, it’s all about your defense. Whether the Swarm... er, Tide... wins or loses, their defensive stats stay about the same against both the run and the pass. However, they run for 68 more yards in wins than in losses, and pass for 64 more yards in wins than in losses. A Big 12 team not named Oklahoma might not know much about defense (Kansas doesn’t count since they faced only one offense), but that’s what it’s going to come down to. Don’t give Bama extra possessions, and limit them on the ones they do have.