Georgia Bulldogs '09: ARP ARP ARP ARP ARP

The 2008 Season in a Box
Last year should’ve been played with “The Price Is Right” loser’s theme on an infinite loop in the background. Georgia bet aggressively after opening as the pre-season #1 and riding emotional momentum to what would hopefully be heights they hadn’t seen in a while. Unfortunately for them (fortunately for the rest of us), the Alabama blackout stomping pretty much killed any realistic shot they had at competing for a title – and what little bit of life they had after that got ground into paste by Urban Meyer. It wasn’t that last year’s team was bad, but when you make it to the showcase you don’t bid $1 on how much the grand prize costs. But thanks for playing, guys.

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Other than losing your two first-round draft picks out of the backfield? That’s what we term a “minor adjustment”; sure, you can debate whether or not Stafford was worth the first overall pick (my take has always been he needs to have something resembling consistent accuracy to make him worth the top pick, and there’s a very good reason I was making jokes about his accuracy all season), but at the end of the day he’s gone and so is talented workhorse Knowshon Moreno. Georgia at this point is talented enough to overcome their losses to some degree, but there’s a fine line between overcome and excel. Of course, last year was a bit of a disappointment. Hopefully they’ll wear their black jerseys in all their games next year.

On Offense
With the departure of Matt Stafford to the Lions – I’m not sure if that’s a step up – Joe Cox will likely step in as the starting QB. We last saw Cox in 2006 as an occasional passer before Stafford stepped in as a true frosh. Cox isn’t exactly shabby, but he wasn’t blessed with the howitzer that Stafford owned; now that he’s a senior, he’ll be a capable but likely not outstanding guy under center. Logan Gray is your prototypical change-of-pace backup QB; we’ll call him dual-threat, but since he’s a sophomore, his accuracy is probably measured in miles, not in inches. The best-case scenario for Gray and Cox is that they’re used in a similar fashion as David Greene and DJ Shockley were back in 2004; of course, that year Shockley also failed to complete 50% of his passes, which probably proves my point.

The running game will likely remind people of some reason between 2004 and 2006; while there’s not a dominant, establish rusher in the batch, there are a couple of guys who are good enough to start. Caleb King had the starting RB spot in good hands up until he screwed up and lost it; now he’ll be in a battle with Richard Samuel for RB1. The main difference between 2004 and 2005/2006 is how effective the second back was; in 2004 both Thomas Brown and Danny Ware were quality, dangerous backs who had basically 700+ yards apiece. In 2005, Brown was the true star but there were two guys underneath him who had nearly an equal amount of yards, but 2006 was the relative dud of the lot. With the talent in the backfield, 2004 is a more likely outcome than 2006, and a situation like 2007 (when Moreno burst onto the scene) isn’t terribly likely unless true freshman Washaun Easley blows everyone away in the first few weeks of the season. It’s not a bad thing that Georgia will end up with a 2 RB system; truth be told I’m actually a fan of multi-back attacks, as it lets coaches sub in and out without sacrificing a rushing threat. (It’s the converse of the dual-threat QB who can’t pass; sure, he may put the ball in the air, but he probably won’t, and if he does it shouldn’t be hard to stop it from being completed.)

WR is a bit more settled than the backfield spots; sure, Football Jesus finally lived up to his billing as a senior, but AJ Green was the true star of the unit and he’s only a sophomore. At nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TDs last year – again, as a freshman – he has a pretty decent shot of getting above the elusive 1,000 yard / 10 TD watermarks that SEC receivers typically don’t get to; in the last 5 years, only 7 players have reached that mark – and of that crew, only Sydney Rice and Earl Bennett reached that mark as sophomores. Green’s emergence as that kind of threat will be dependent in part on whether Michael Moore, Tavarres King, or Marlon Brown can emerge as enough of a threat that defenses don’t just rotate coverage over to Green’s side and dare Cox to beat them to the other receivers. Of those guys, Brown is the most intriguing; he’s a Green clone by size and recruiting acumen, but he’s also a true freshman. There’s also a chance that TE Aron White or Orson Charles emerges as a receiving threat; since it’s a new QB that should help their production.

Richt and OC Mike Bobo have done a great job tailoring the offense to what’s there; ostensibly it’s a pro-style offense, but it’s the kind of pro-style offense I like – there’s a basic set of concepts, but the concepts and plays are tailored to suit the personnel. As a result, it ends up as dynamic without becoming predictable, and Georgia’s done a good job of fielding a respectable at worst offense. Even with the absence of their two biggest stars, this season should be similar.

On Defense and Special Teams
If Georgia had a shortcoming last year, it was the defense inexplicably crapping the bed against good teams. The aggregates weren’t bad (although their opposing 3.6 ypc was the highest since ’05), but in every loss they were pretty much steamrolled: Alabama had 45 carries (although the 2.9 ypc was good), Florida averaged nearly 5 yards a carry over their 38 runs, and Georgia Tech had a staggering 7.3(!) ypc on 56 carries. Hell, even Kentucky (4.0, 56), LSU (4.6, 41), and Georgia Southern (2.9, 35, but triple option 1-AA team) were way more successful than they should’ve been.

By that standard, it’s a good thing that 6 of the front 7 return; WLB Rennie Curran is the star of the bunch, but DT Geno Atkins is pretty damn good in his own right. The secondary isn’t quite as lucky, but SS Reshad Jones should keep that unit from collapsing under its own weight. Really, the secondary wasn’t the problem last year (unless failing to tackle at the second level counts as a problem, which it probably does), but since Georgia’s two new starters are a FS who didn’t see a lot of action last season and a true freshman, there will be some growing pains.

Blair Walsh returns as K; he was Georgia’s only K last year even as a freshman, so he’ll have one heck of a leash. As these things go, he’s pretty good. Drew Butler steps into the full-time punting role after doing most of his punting from opponent’s territory last year. As for the return games, they’re nothing to write home about and fall solidly into the “mildly, but not spectacularly dangerous” category like so many teams.

As much as I hate saying it, Willie Martinez needs to have the defense return to prior form this season; if that doesn’t happen, I can’t see him sticking around. Last year had typical Georgia defense in some games but they just plain didn’t show up in others; with the question marks the Bulldogs have on offense, a consistent defense will keep them from losing a game or two they probably shouldn’t. As a Tennessee fan, I can only hope it’s inconsistent but quality enough to keep Martinez around, as I have no doubts Georgia would only move up on the DC list if Martinez was to leave.

So What’s Their Bowl Game?
This looks like a New Year’s Day bowl type of team; right now they look pretty inexperienced, but Arkansas / Auburn / LSU out of the West is pretty easy, relatively speaking. The only thing that would be better is if they swapped LSU for Mississippi State. There’s a tough road opener at Oklahoma State which should give everyone a clue as to how the defense will perform in elite games; we’ll have to wait for the aforementioned LSU game to see how the offense performs against elite defenses, though. As things stand, they’re clearly the 2nd-best team in the SEC East and should end up in the Outback Bowl if things go kind of according to plan; whether that’s 10-2 with losses to Florida and LSU or 8-4 with the aforementioned two losses coupled with losing to Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech it’s still 6-2 in-conference. The Capital One Bowl isn’t out of the question with a win against LSU, but this team’s success will be defined by how the defense matures after a rough 2008 – and if it returns to form, this team will be dangerous again in 2010.

Random Thoughts: Pac-10(!) Edition

First off, if you haven’t seen the modified Top 25 rankings, check them out; I hadn’t gotten a chance to add my thoughts to the rankings. That’s taken care of now.

So right now, we have almost 120 teams (Western Kentucky joins the Sun Belt next year) in we’re-not-calling-it-1-A-anymore, and if you think we’re covering all of them, you’re nuts. We’ll do our best to get to the ones that matter, though, and on that note here’s a bunch of random notes and thoughts about some teams.

- UCLA: if you’ve missed the news, Ben Olson is injured again and won’t be available for the first few weeks of the season at best. This will cause Kevin Craft to move up to the starting role, meaning he’ll likely get the nod against Tennessee, BYU, and Arizona (if not Fresno State). This is about as painful as it sounds for Bruins fans, but the rest of us are laughing at the turn of misfortune.

- Arizona State: the offensive line problems are very real here. We’ve already documented our concerns with it on a few occasions (it’s the main thing holding them back), but the good news is that they have three games to get it together. The bad news is they’re one injury to Paul Faniaka away from having a completely decrepit offensive line, but for those of us used to calling them the Arizona State Paper Sun Devils, that’s good news too.

- Left tackles are apparently optional at Georgia. Trinton Sturdivant is out at LT for the season, and while this will be his RS year it won’t make life any easier for the ‘Dogs. They’re not sure what they’ll do about it, but there’s enough talent there to make coping difficult yet not impossible. Expect some combination of Justin Anderson, Vince Vance, Kiante Tripp, Cordy Glenn, and Josh Davis to flip around in pursuit of that spot; of those guys, Vance and Tripp are already starters.

- Does anyone have a spare ACL for Florida? They’ve lost five (!) guys already to ACL tears: starters Cornelius Ingram and Dorian Munroe, plus backups Jim Barrie, John Curtis, and Brendan Beal. Ingram was undoubtedly the biggest loss of those five, but Munroe and Curtis were both SS, which means secondary depth is already a concern. Beal might’ve redshirted this year anyway, so that seals the deal for him, and Barrie hurts the line depth. The Gators should be fine coping with the losses, but if injuries in the secondary start to pile up, you heard it here first.

Speaking of the Gators, they allowed straight thuggin’ Ronnie Wilson to rejoin the team. EDSBS summed this up way better than we could even dream of, but: bad form, Meyer. You’re in a state that’s fucking loaded with talent; did you really need a guy who knows how to fire assault rifles in public?

- Kentucky’s kicked starting QB Curtis Pulley off the team. Mike Hartline will assume QB duties for the Wildcats, which will consist of “run around like crazy praying to g-d Dicky Lyons can shed triple coverage before getting wrecked”. I’d say this is a big deal, but I’d be lying my ass off; nobody cares about Kentucky this year.

- If this isn’t the gayest college football article you read all year, I will be very surprised. I didn’t realize they let the gays out in Tuscaloosa. That being said, Jones could be one hell of a playmaker, and I’d be scared of him if I had any confidence that John Parker Wilson, Esq. could actually turn in a consistent week-to-week performance.

- So I’ve been reading a fair amount of articles on how TAMU’s offense will be designed to feature Mike Goodson more, and I refuse to buy it. I’ll buy that Stephen McGee won’t be running the ball as much this season, but I think it’s a reach to assume a guy with Goodson’s size won’t get wrecked running behind an offensive line returning only one starter. Compound that with learning a new offensive scheme, and while we can expect Jovorski Lane to rack up the close yardage and TDs without getting too injured, I’ll need to see Goodson as the feature back before signing on. Actually, I’ll buy Goodson as the featured back, but I won’t buy him as the signature back. It just seems like a mess waiting to happen.

- Is Texas Tech due for a letdown? They’re facing the highest expectations since …well, ever, and there are still some huge questions around their defense. Mike Leach is saying all the right things and the team is at least acting like they’re focused, but I buy that as much as I buy the “[pitcher] is feeling great this season” articles that show up in spring training, after said pitcher has spent the last 112 weeks on the DL. At some point, we’ll actually have to see the actual improvement in focus and commitment from the Red Raiders, and the last five years would seem to indicate otherwise: 2003, L 21-49 @ NC State; 2004, L 24-27 @ New Mexico; 2005, L 17-24 @ Oklahoma St.; 2006, L 6-30 @ Colorado; 2007, L 45-49 @ Oklahoma State, again. Consider this a warning to take care of business on the road, guys.

- Speaking of saying the right things, Duke is quickly becoming a soft spot for me. Admittedly, 90% of this is because David Cutcliffe has become their HC, but it’s kind of weird seeing a bunch of guys who have been playing football for 6+ years on average (if not longer) talk about what it actually means to be a college football athlete. It makes me wonder what Ted Roof was doing as HC there and how he was able to land a job somewhere else, even if it was at Minnesota. Will it matter? I suspect not, but the ACC is bad enough that they could sneak a conference win (Virginia? NC State?) and finish the season 3-9. Bonus points: only one team – Clemson – has scheduled Duke for their homecoming opponent. This is a step up, as Virginia gets dinged on that twice.

That’ll cover it for now.

The Sugar Bowl

When LSU was chosen for the BCS Championship game, the Sugar Bowl was fortunate that the SEC had another 10-2 team, Georgia. The Sugar had last pick for the remaining spots, but fortunately being "forced" to take Hawaii isn't a bad thing for the game itself, only revenue if anything. (and I'm not sure how much I believe that) The matchup itself is excellent and features the highest combined winning percentage of its teams amongst all BCS Bowls this season.

In the last six years, the SEC has compiled a 5-1 Sugar Bowl record, with three wins by LSU but Georgia going 1-1 with a loss to West Virginia. However, midmajor teams are 2-0 in BCS bowl games with unbeaten Utah and Boise State teams each pulling off wins in the Fiesta Bowl. This has all the makings of a great game if Colt Brennan brings his A-game.

Hawaii (by Coach Lawrence)

Hawaii entered the 2007 season as favorites to be an unbeaten BCS-crasher and with outside Heisman hopes for Colt Brennan. Yep, 12-0 and a top 4 finish for the QB. Unfortunately, their schedule strength has hovered around 150th for most of the season (there are 119 I-A teams, so you know what that means) and even after facing Boise State and Washington in their final two games, wasn't quite strong enough to creep into the top 120. Because of this almost-mockery, the Warriors weren't selected to play in the BCS title game despite being the nation's only unbeaten. Note to mid-major teams: you need to schedule at least one real opponent in your nonconference slate (read: not Northern Colorado, UNLV, Charleston Southern, and Washington only counts if they finish .500).

The Warriors define what it means to be an offensive team. Hawaii leads the nation in points per game, yards per game, and are second in passing yards per game. They run the ball... sometimes. Colt Brennan has averaged 379 passing ypg, a number lowered due to a few games where he played only partway due to injury, and amazingly his backup averages 156 ypg passing on top of that. Overall the offense gains 450 ypg through the air, racking up 50 aerial touchdowns and a 165.8 rating. Ryan Grice-Mullen and Davone Bess have both caught 100 passes and average over 100 ypg receiving, and a deep threat Jason Rivers comes in at 97 ypg while leading the team in TD recptions with 13. It's a crazy, exciting system.

Defensively, the numbers are average (132 ypg rush, 217 ypg pass), but then we recall who they've faced -- yeah, nobody. In their last four games, against somewhat respectable opposition, UH gave up at least 26 points in each game. Stopping Georgia, who will be by far the best and most physical offense they've seen all season (there's really no comparison to anyone UH has faced), will be a huge uphill battle and a lot of the gameplan will probably revolve around the realistic assumption that the Warriors will have limited success defensively.

Keys to Victory:
1) Every possession must be a score. You can't count on this defense to stop everything Georgia has, particularly their powerful running game. Scoring, say, 42+ points gives their own defense a break and could also force Georgia away from their running game should the Warriors build a lead.

2) Exploit your biggest advantage - the depth differential provided by your receiving corps. Grice-Mullen, Bess, and Rivers have been extremely productive wide receivers and CJ Hawthorne is about all you could hope for for the #4 guy. Georgia has a good starting secondary, but how's their dime package? Most college teams don't go that deep -- Georgia really needs to spread those receivers out so that Kelin Johnson and Reshad Jones - UGA's ballhawking safeties - aren't doing what they do best (coming over the top from help for interceptions or jarring hits) and instead have to provide primary coverage. Effective receiver spread is probably the only way they can: (3)

3) Don't even bother with the run until the pass game is well-established or the defense is completely in pass rush/coverage mode. Georgia has a good defensive line and only gives up 3.4 ypg against SEC power-oriented offenses. Those draws and screens to Pilares and Wright-Jackson are great changes of pace, but first there has to be a pace to change. Otherwise you're just looking at no gain and falling behind the chains.

4) Go for broke. We saw what it took for Boise State to knock off Oklahoma last season. Georgia this year is better than OU a year ago, and Hawaii doesn't have the trick plays of BSU, which means Brennan's probably going to have to put up 500 yards the hard way. But going for it on 4th down at midfield, going for that interception rather than playing safe coverage, etc give your team the chance to swing the game. Matthew Stafford hasn't had a very consistent season, and while miles ahead of where he was a year ago, the Warrior defense has to be looking for opportunities to exploit his mistakes.

Georgia (by Coach Pendley)

Contrary to popular belief, Georgia did NOT win the SEC East. They did finish 10-2, but thanks to an earlier loss to Tennessee, Georgia ended up losing out on the division to the aforementioned Vols. Of course, since they got a Sugar Bowl invite courtesy of not winning the division, they shouldn’t complain too much. They did well for themselves this year, winning out after the Tennessee game – and often looking dominant in the process.

In November alone, they increased their per-rush average by .74 yards per carry over the previous month and added 13 TDs – almost more than they had in September and October combined! The defense buckled down, too, allowing 2.69 yards per carry in November compared to 4.07 in October. And yes, the pass offense / defense improved as well, but it wasn’t as drastic as the running game, which has served as the catalyst for this Bulldog team.

For that, you can blame Knowshon Moreno, the freshman sensation who came out of nowhere after the first half of the season to finish with 1,273 yards and 12 TDs. Of those, 766 yards and 10 TDs came in only five games – not coincidentally the games where Georgia basically woke up and started kicking ass. That relegated Thomas Brown to backup status – again. He’s done decently there, racking up 700 yards in only 9 games along with 9 TDs. Unfortunately, the rest of the ground game has been nonexistent, thanks in part to two different factors:
1 – Kregg Lumpkin’s injuries
2 – A distinct desire to not use Brandon Southerland on the ground
Of the two, Lumpkin is the forgivable option. I’m not sure I totally understand not using Southerland; he wasn’t used in the passing game either. He’s a sneaky option that can cause opponents to have fits, but since Moreno was absolutely destroying it, I guess I can see not wanting to put the ball in someone else’s hands.

QB Matthew Stafford is still a bit inconsistent, but he’s shown signs of turning the corner, having five different games at least in spitting distance of 60%. While his rating isn’t spectacular – a modest 127.69 – his 19/9 ratio is good. Part of the problem could be with his WRs, as both Sean Taylor and Mohammed Massaquoi are talented, when they bother to catch the ball. Massaquoi, in particular, is hot and cold – he had two different games where his only catch was a TD pass over 50 yards. Taylor was relatively consistent, getting at least two catches in all but two games. Tripp Chandler is a decent, but not often-used TE (only 20 catches in 11 games).

The UGA secondary – because, let’s be honest, nobody’s going to care about UGA’s run D in this game – has done a decent job, pulling down 11 INTs to go with their 11 TDs given up. CB Kelin Johnson is the ball hawk in the secondary, but CB Asher Allen is the emotional leader in the secondary – he’s second on the team in solo tackles. UGA excels at getting to the QB, leading the SEC with 34 sacks. They’re a threat all along the line, too – Marcus Howard, Geno Atkins, and Jeremy Lomax all have at least four sacks.

Gameplan:
UGA knows what Hawaii’s going to do – pass, and do a hell of a lot of it. Of course, it’s not even that easy; Hawaii’s WR operate on a lot of coverage reads and will burn you if you make a mistake. It gets worse: Ryan Grice-Mullen, Davone Bess, and Jason Rivers are all #1 / #1.5 type of WRs. So how the hell do you stop them? Get pressure on Brennan; I doubt UGA will be able to cover all three of those WRs at once. I do expect Asher Allen to be able to shut one of the WRs down, but Reshad Jones may have a tougher time of it.

Georgia’s biggest problem is that aside from Allen, Jones, and Kelim Johnson, there’s not a lot of solid coverage optoins. Hawaii will be able to throw CJ Hawthorne on the field too, so they’ll have to find a fourth option. I don’t want CJ Byrd forced into coverage any more than he has to be (I don’t trust having two safeties forced into coverage packages). I don’t care too much about the run; the front seven should be able to handle it.

On defense, Hawaii is nasty but they haven’t faced a truly physical front yet; Boise State comes closest and ECU rolled up yardage on the ground. Moreno operates solely in pissed-off mode and Hawaii hasn’t seen that yet, either. I pound the hell out of the ball with Moreno (and Brown, with a little bit of Southerland thrown in there, at least to block) until Hawaii can show they’ll stop the run. I don’t think they can, to be honest; Fresno State and Nevada picked up nearly 400 yards combined on the ground, and those were the two best rushing offenses Hawaii faced. Georgia’s better than that. The added bonus is Moreno tearing up the field means Brennan can’t.

I’d pass just enough to keep Hawaii honest. They’re a very opportunistic defense and my plan for Stafford would consist of “don’t lose it.” If Stafford comes out of the game with 200 yards and zero INT, I’m happy with that; I don’t even need a TD pass from him. Obviously, I’d want to use Taylor and Massaquoi, but I may want to get Chandler and Southerland involved if I can get them away from LB Adam Leonard, who has 4 INT on the year (ran two back). Screens may have some success, too.

More than anything else, I want to force Hawaii into their most conservative gameplan possible. Don’t let them get fumbles, INTs, sacks, big kickoff or punt returns, etc. That being said, conservative does NOT mean the same thing as passive. Take the fight to the Warriors, but don’t go too far out of your comfort zone. I fully expect the team to play emotionally, but they’re going to have to know that’s how Hawaii plays too, and they’ve been doing it for way longer than six games. If you’re going to play emotionally, make sure you kill their emotions, too. It won’t work otherwise.