BCS Bowl Game Simulationss (by LFB): Fiesta Bowl

So - a little bit of background. Aside from the Holiday Bowl, the bowls have either a) involved shitty teams, b) been uninteresting, or c) both. Left Field Bluffs decided to take matters into our own hands. In this first edition of LFB Bowl Simulations, we're playing the Fiesta Bowl - James as Texas and Russ as Ohio State. For the nerds: 6-minute quarters, injuries off (yes, I know), and All-American.

1st Quarter

Ohio State won the toss and elected to defer. Opening kickoff run back to the 31 for Texas. First play from scrimmage - out route to the sideline for a three-yard loss. (Woody Hayes does not approve.) Ogbonnaya then rips off a fucking huge gain (um, 70-yard pass?) to the Buckeye 5. After doing nothing in a hurry on 1st down, McCoy whips an interception to Lauranitis - in true Tressel fashion, he sits on it in the end zone.

Ohio State hangs Beanie Wells out to dry and Terrelle Pryor can't complete a pass to save his life (yeah, I know). However, 3rd down proves fruitful as he lofts a nice corner route completion - aided in part by a questionable roughing the passer call. Imagine that a few plays in a row are what you expect from a Tressel offense - not terribly exciting at all but somehow continuing to get first downs and positive yardage. There really isn't a lot to see here until a 3rd and 4 when Pryor does his best Rudy Carpenter imitation and gets nailed. However, in a bit of a change from typical Tressel-ball, the ensuing punt sails into the end zone. Texas ball on their 20.

Neither team should look at running the option - they can't do shit with it, at least not now. McCoy bails a nice pass to ...um, one of Texas' FBs (we have no idea) before doing his best Drew Weatherford impression, throwing not one but two passes into triple coverage. The second pass is intercepted and returned for six. 7-0, Buckeyes.

Nice return for Texas to their own 36, followed by a rollout completion (crossing route) for a first down. After another first down, McCoy chucks another jump ball - underthrown and picked by Kurt Coleman. McCoy got the tackle on this one, at least. Buckeye ball....again.

2nd Quarter

We missed a few plays in there between then and the end of the quarter, but there wasn't a whole lot to see. On their first third down, Pryor drops a pass just a little too short - picked off. Apparently both guys think scoring is bullshit.

Texas - first play, big-ass gain to Cosby! First and goal; this time Texas finally learns to NOT FUCKING PASS IT THAT CLOSE - you hear that, Mack? Punched in from the 1 for a tie game at 7.

Ohio State on offense ...again, not too exciting. Really, I could be writing about 4 and 5-yard gains, but you don't want to read about that and I don't want to write about it. Heck, you probably don't want to read this anyway, but it's either this or go back to work - ha! 3rd and 2 is stuffed, resulting in another punt.

Texas ain't doing shit either. They had a nice punt return, but got sacked (next play resulted in a first down, and so did the one after that). Long story short: Ohio State's defense is getting tired - and there it goes! Vondrell McGee takes it in on a 16-yard run to the corner, and it's 14-7 Looooonghorns.

For whatever reason, that score took a bit out of OSU - they don't get shit on their next drive (actually get less than shit - -5 yards) and are forced to punt. Time update: Texas has 1:24 and three timeouts from the Buckeye 43.

Texas nails a huge, huge gain on a pass to Jordan Shipley that barely manages to stay inbounds! Unofficial booth replay confirms the call on the field, and shockingly the confirmed booth replay doesn't even happen (bullshit). However, that's going to be just about it. Field goal attempt before the half - off the upright! Ohio State's ensuing Hail Mary goes nowhere.

3rd Quarter

Well, Ohio State gets the ball first, for all the good it did them. First play from scrimmage, first pass of the second half - it's now 21-7 Texas. At least Ohio State gets another chance. This drive's more like the Buckeye way - except for the 4th down conversion (Tressel would've punted and you know it). I'm missing most of this, since I'm looking for "Don't Cry Out Loud" videos. Actually, I completely missed the drive, but it took half the quarter and resulted in a TD, so this is pretty much Ohio State football. 21-14 OSU.

Texas throws their fourth INT of the game (apparently Ohio State will come back in this game, no matter what the actual gameplay dictates). However, Buckeye goes nowhere fast and gets to punt again, even though the ball is on the Texas 46 - dumped into the end zone again.

Texas once again lucks out on one of those weird barely-got-a-foot-in completions that isn't reviewed. Again. This time it doesn't result in a TD - they have to punt! That's Texas's first punt of the game, although it's far from their only returned possession. Ohio State doesn't doa whole lot before the end of the quarter - I've been saying that a lot lately.

4th Quarter

Finally, a legitimate miscue - Texas' punt returner attempts to run without the ball after the inevitable OSU punt. However, it was recovered by the Longhorns, so no super-excitement there. Possession goes nowhere - punt time! Again.

HUGE return by the Buckeyes to the Longhorn 20! After a couple of runs that go nowhere, Pryor hits a TD pass to Ray Small and we're tied! It's 21-21 with just 3:40 to go in the game.

So that tie game? Never mind. First play from scrimmage is a 65-yard pass to Vondrell McGee .... 28-21.

Ohio State's next possession doesn't go anywhere on the first two plays, but the third down conversion goes for about 18 on a crossing route to Ray Small again. However, Pryor gets sacked on the next play (side note: we have yet to see Boeckman). Jump ball goes nowhere - take note, Jeffy. A huge 3rd and 20 ends up with a 13-yard completion ... and we see a 4th-down attempt! Shotgun snap, 3 WRs.... sacked!

All Texas has to do at this point is run out the clock .. but we're ending up with a 3rd down all the same. Huge option lateral ends up BARELY getting a first down! Ohio State's forced to start spending their timeouts here - actually, scratch that, it won't matter. A facemask penalty kills any shot Ohio State had at winning - and the asshole move of kicking a FG when time expired goes awry.

The Tressel Behind the Curtain

Watching the Ohio State @ USC "Game of the Season" go from an interesting first quarter to a game Ohio State was on the verge of losing early to a complete massacre, all in the span of about ten minutes in the second quarter, I had a moment of understanding with Buckeye fans. I'd been through this before, shouting at the TV for Mack Brown to please play Major Applewhite as Chris Simms turned the ball over four times in the first half of the conference championship to sabotage my beloved Longhorns' 2001 national title hopes. By the time Applewhite came in, the deficit was (as it turns out, just barely) too much to overcome.

Terrelle Pryor would not have made such a difference against USC, as unlike that Texas-Colorado game where the Buffs scored with short fields or outright defensive touchdowns, the OSU defense was also not able to stop the USC offense from driving 80 yards at will. Let's not take anything away from USC from being an amazingly talented team nor from Pete Carroll from being an amazing recruiter and absolutely devastating with long preparations. But the margin of defeat, Ohio State's worst since 1994, has to be a real cause for concern.

We remember that in 2005, Ohio State had a showdown with Texas and Vince Young, in Ohio Stadium where the Bucks had never lost a night game. This was a game the Buckeyes actually led 22-16 going into the 4th quarter, before a late toss to Limas Sweed allowed Texas to escape with a win.

Ohio State was heavily criticized for its two-quarterback strategy, and I want to talk more about this. After starting the game with two short drives totalling 9 plays for 25 yards, OSU took Justin Zwick out and put Troy Smith in in an effort to spark the stagnant offense. Smith's first two drives totalled 15 plays and 88 yards, including an 80 yard TD drive to tie the game at 10 which would be Ohio State's only drive longer than 50 yards on the night, but his next two totalled just 13 plays for 19 yards. We went into halftime with the Buckeyes up 16-13 thanks to some great field position on those last two drives. After Vince Young fumbled on the first drive of the second half, Troy Smith went 10 yards in 6 plays to settle for a field goal, his 4th possession starting inside the Texas 36, all of which went for FGs. Tired of squandering these great starting spots, Tressel went back to Zwick who took Ohio State on a long drive which ended with his TE dropping a pass in the end zone and settling for yet another FG. After going 3-and-out on the following drive with Zwick, Tressel went back to Smith. He also went 3-and-out, prompting Zwick to come back into the game in what was really a bizarre decision, as Smith was hardly given a chance to work. However, it was an 11 play, 38 yard drive that unfortunately ended in a missed FG. Zwick again took the field after VY's go-ahead pass, and he fumbled after scrambling for 5 yards. Smith came out for Ohio State's final drive two minutes later, taking a safety on the first play. In total, Justin Zwick had 31 plays for 110 yards (3.5) and Troy Smith had 38 plays for 120 yards (3.2). Many Ohio State fans believe that Troy Smith was vastly more effective, as his drives totalled 19 points to Justin Zwick's 3. This, however, is inflated by Smith taking the field four times in obvious scoring position but the offense stalling out for a FG each time. In fact both QBs were equally ineffective, as the offense just never got going save for one or maybe two drives. However, what can be criticized is that had Tressel picked a quarterback, either one really, that QB could have developed a better feel for the game and perhaps led the offense to just another field goal or perhaps scored a TD in one of those short field situations. More to the point, though, when the offense stalled out, Tressel's answer was to switch quarterbacks. OSU ran the same tired plays with both men in there, and midway through the second quarter they just weren't working. There was never an adjustment to what Texas was doing defensively. Make no mistake, this was Tressel's most talented team, and with a great defensive leader in AJ Hawk (something that is missing in the current LB corps) and a ton of speed and talent on offense. They blew a winnable game where Vince Young brought his C game, but poor offensive strategy put him in a position where he could make up for that with one drive. Ohio State was not the better team here - certainly by the end of the season that was evident - but with the home field advantage and with their opponent's star player having an off night, they should have won this one.

On to the 2006 National Championship - the Fiesta Bowl matchup versus Florida. Urban Meyer's offense ran the same short-to-medium pass routes over and over, OSU refused to modify their zone coverage. Florida brought outside pressure while giving up 6.2 yards per rushing attempt to Antonio Pittman, but the Buckeyes gave him a mere 10 carries. I'm not going to say it would have changed the outcome, but otherwise are we at least looking at a good game here? Perhaps so.

What about last season's finale? Against LSU, Beanie Wells averaged 7.3 yards per carry but had just 20 carries to Boeckman's 26 pass attempts (plus 9 runs/sacks). Even throwing out the 65 yard scamper early in the first quarter, he averaged 4.3 yards a pop, which surely merits 25-30 carries. But as the game went from a 10 point Buckeye lead to a 14 point halftime edge for the Tigers, Beanie carried just seven times in four possessions - for 44 yards. He was averaging better than 6 per play but the offense was turning to Boeckman's arm and the game was turning LSU's way. By halftime we knew what the game result would be, and once LSU took a 21-point lead to start the third, there was no longer any doubt.

Last weekend's stats show that with Todd Boeckman in the game, OSU averaged a woeful 2.8 yards per play against USC. With Terrelle Pryor, that average was 5.1 -- perhaps more relevently, it was 6.5 yards per play while he was in with the first team offense, prior to being given two series of mop-up duty in the meaningless 4th quarter. Yet Boeckman saw 39 snaps to Pryor's 25. This makes absolutely no sense to anyone watching the game or to anyone looking at the stats. It was a baffling decision to continue to refrain from using their most talented player.

This looks like horrible coaching! And yet, two outright conference titles, two more shared conference titles, a 4-2 BCS record, and a national championship all speak for themselves. Or do they?

So-called "Tressel Ball" is essentially conservative offense, conservative fourth down decision-making with strong kickers, and a fundamentally outstanding yet relatively conservative-schemed defense that doesn't give up big plays, with an emphasis on winning the lines. This is a recipe for not losing games you're supposed to win. And looking by season, against teams who finished with more losses than the Buckeyes, Ohio State went:
2001: 6-2
2002: 14-0 (huge win over 12-1 Miami)
2003: 11-2 (including loss to 10-3 Michigan who lost to USC in the Rose Bowl)
2004: 7-2
2005: 10-0 (defeating Notre Dame in the BCS -> take your spot in the next season's BCS Championship)
2006: 12-0 (note that Florida finished 13-1, ie with as many losses as OSU)
2007: 11-1 (note that LSU finished 12-2, ie with as many losses as OSU)
Totalling 71-7.

On the other hand, when facing teams who finished with equal or fewer losses than Ohio State, the Buckeyes went:
2001: 1-3
2002: 0-0
2003: 0-0
2004: 1-2
2005: 0-2
2006: 0-1
2007: 0-1
Totalling 2-9.

Now I realize that to some extent this is built in. Most of Ohio State's losses came (obviously) in seasons where they had more losses, and in these seasons their opponents are more likely to finish with a better record than them by default. Likewise, when Ohio State went 14-0, it was impossible for anyone to finish with a better record, so even the epic championship game against Miami gets classified as an "expected" victory. So put some perspective with this stat. Regardless, the trend is that Tressel is damn near a 90% winner in games Ohio State should win, but he's giving them about a 10-20% shot in evenly matched games or games where they are the underdog. Whatever it takes to pull off an upset, Tressel seems to lack it. In the last four years, Ohio State's only victory against seemingly strong opposition was a home win over Michigan by 3 points in 2006, only to find out a month later that those mighty Wolverines were completely outclassed by USC.

But what about the 2002 season? The Fiesta Bowl was one of the greatest upsets of the BCS!

This is true. Even with the loss, that Miami squad ranks #8 on our all-time BCS list, one spot behind those Buckeyes. Let's look at the 2002 season for Ohio State:

I'm not sure where the Buckeyes started out, but when the first BCS rankings were released on Oct 21, 2002, Ohio State was #4 in the polls and #6 in the BCS. They did not move into the top two of the BCS until the first week of November. It's safe to recall that they were a dark horse team.

In their first three games, Ohio State rolled Texas Tech, Kent State, and eventual Pac 10 champions Washington State. Cincinnati gave the Buckeyes an odd scare which could be attributed to letdown, then the rolling continued to 7-0 midway through October. After that:
* On Oct 19, Ohio State trailed Wisconsin 14-13 before a big 4th quarter pass set up the go-ahead TD in a 19-14 victory. Yardage was roughly even, OSU killed Wisconsin in punting.
* On Oct 26, Ohio State won a close 13-7 victory over then-#10 Penn State 13-7. The fourth quarter was scoreless.
* On Nov 2, Ohio State routed Minnesota 34-3.
* On Nov 9, Ohio State trailed Purdue 6-3 late in the 4th quarter. Facing 3rd and 14, Krenzel completed a 13 yard pass with just over 1:40 left to set up the infamous 4th and 1. Their ground game having been shut down, the Buckeyes went with a play action fake which was covered short, and wound up throwing a 37 yard toss into the end zone to Michael Jenkins for the win.
* The following week, Ohio State found themselves clinging to a 16-13 4th quarter lead with 1:06 to play against Illinois. The Illini drove the field to send the game to overtime, which Ohio State eventually won 23-16.
* Finally, hosting then-#11 Michigan in the season finale, Ohio State again found themselves down 9-7 in the 4th. The Buckeyes scored on an eight-play drive that included three key scrambles by Krenzel, including ones on a third and fourth down. After getting the ball back with 4:05 remaining, the Wolverines twice drove the ball inside the Ohio State 35 but turned the ball over both times.

Now, every BCS champion has had a game or two where they struggle, if not actually lose. But this really takes it to another level as six of their final seven games were decided by just one play! Considering the talent differential here (OSU had 10 defensive starters drafted into the NFL), that points at the unispired play this team muddled through until the last possible moment of these games.

This of course set up the big national championship showdown with a Larry Coker team, which among other things needed an injury to Willis McGahee and a questionable 4th down pass interference call to secure the 2OT win. It was a great game for the Buckeyes and probably the truest upset in a BCS championship, but six years later this is still what Tressel's prestige as a coach is based upon. I'm not sure if this game under these circumstances really outweighs the disappointments of the last four seasons.

It seems that, like Mack Brown, Jim Tressel is a great recruiter but not a great coach. Really, the difference seems to be that Texas plays in a conference with Oklahoma, a team who also has a great recruiter in Bob Stoops and at least had one of the nation's premiere DC's in Mike Stoops. Ohio State, on the other hand, has mostly had to compete against a falling Michigan program, which made conference titles inevitable. In fact, if we were to swap Ohio State and Texas for the Jim Tressel era, it looks like Ohio State would have been the Big 12's best team in 2002, 2005, and 2006 (yes, Oklahoma and Missouri were both better last season), which means that with one conference championship upset, the Buckeyes would also be looking at just two BCS appearances. This isn't meant to provoke an in-depth discussion of the Ohio State and Texas football programs, but rather to point out that a lot of the Buckeyes' recent success has been a product of the Big Ten lacking a program capable of consistently challenging them. Strong recruiting is good enough to win the conference title almost every season.

Rich Rodriguez and Ron Zook could change this dynamic in a few years, but until then Ohio State looks like they're in a fairly stable equilibrium. And who knows, maybe Terrelle Pryor will eventually win a title in spite of the decided schematic disadvantage, not unlike the great Vince Young. But it won't be The Sweater Vest leading this team to victory through bold or even correct decision-making.

Preview: Ohio State @ Southern Cal

In ten seasons, Ohio State and USC have been the two most frequent BCS Bowl participants along with Oklahoma. Ohio State has racked up a 4-2 record, including 1-2 in championship games with an upset of Miami in 2002. USC is 5-1 overall, the most BCS bowl victories of any program, including a 1-1 record in championship games with a blowout of Oklahoma in 2004. Notable, USC was awarded an AP championship after their Rose Bowl victory over Michigan following the 2003 season. These two programs have played in the last four BCS championship games, although they've also lost the last three.

Amazingly, the two programs haven't met since 1990, when USC came away with a 9-point victory in Columbus. (after destroying the Buckeyes in LA the season before)

Most people are picking the winner of this game to play in the national title game. There's a good chance for the loser as well, if they finish 11-1. (Yes this includes Ohio State, despite what some sportswriters are saying. These same people argued that OSU didn't deserve to be ranked #1 at the end of the 2007 regular season, then promptly ranked them #1.)

So let's get on with it.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State is a conservative offensive team who wins games by pounding the ball on the ground, playing unmovable defense, and quietly winning the kicking game. Tressel Ball 101. Ohio State is an extremely experienced team - returning nine starters on each side of the ball.

The 2008 defensive group is truly amazing. Led by James Laurinitis, this bunch has essentially been playing together for two complete seasons, and in those 28 games I have only seen one truly bad defensive performance. (vs Florida... vs LSU, a lot of that can be blamed on the offense as they only gave up 326 yards but had bad field position most of the game due to turnovers and penalties) Malcolm Jenkins is considered one of the best cornerbacks in the country as well. Two games into this season, the Buckeyes are surrendering an average of 164 yards and 7 points per game with 6 turnovers forced (4 interceptions in last week's game!) - indeed, defense is the reason OSU is 2-0 right now rather than 1-1.

The Ohio State offense is very hit-or-miss, and missing Beanie Wells could make that worse. Maurice Wells is a good inside runner and Brandon Saine has great speed as a former track star. The Bucks return four starting offensive linemen and this unit has been a dominant force so far. The receivers are dependable but not stellar, with Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline being much more effective when the ground game is already rolling and requiring safety help to stop. Quarterback, however, has been the position of inconsistency. Todd Boeckman was statistically the best QB in the Big Ten last season, but turnovers cost the Buckeyes in losses to Illinois and LSU in 2007. Already against Ohio U, Boeckman fumbled a snap that led to Ohio U's only points in the second half - a defensive score. He is an accurate short passer but his throws seem to fall apart beyond 20-25 yards. Not much has been seen or Terrelle Pryor, but I expect him to be a wild card up Tressel's sleeve.

OSU has already hit seven field goals this season in 8 attempts, more evidence that the kicking game is strong. Though punting has been average (40.0 average), punt returns have been a strong area for the Buckeyes - averaging 19 ypr compared to just over 2 ypr allowed, and already having returned one for a TD.

Southern Cal Trojans

USC is an explosive offensive team who plays both big and consistent, complimenting their beastly defense. Though the genius of Norm Chow is gone, the USC offense attacks opposing defense through such wide variety - power running, speed outside running, precision passing - that it seems like once you finally figure out a scheme to stop them, then next series they're out there running something completely different but equally effective.

The USC defensive group returns seven starters from a unit that was among the elite in 2007, and they started this campaign by allowing a mere 32 yards rushing (187 total offense) against Virginia. Three of the new starters are in the front seven, and this is where USC recruits best. Led by Rey Maualuga, this group has consistently been among the toughest to run against for years under Pete Carroll. Taylor Mays is one of the nation's best safeties and they are not easy to throw the ball against either.

USC's only real offensive question was how 4 new starting linemen would perform. Against a Virginia team starting four new faces on defensive line, they completely dominated. Mark Sanchez looks to be a nice upgrade at the QB position from Booty, with more velocity and range on his throws. The receivers he'll be looking for aren't the beasts that USC has had in the past, but this is still a very strong group. At halfback, USC has three legitimate stars who can come in and play different styles, from the bruising attack of Stafon Johnson to the speed of Joe McKnight.

It's hard to grade the USC punters and kickers as they've hardly seen any plays due to their extreme offensive efficiency, but from past experience we know that David Buehler is a reliable kicker. The return groups have looked average so far.

Breakdown

When USC has the ball:

Running

Statistically, Ohio State has had the #1, #15, and #3 rushing defense from 2005-07. Each of these groups has been led by a stellar linebacking corps and an underrated, deep defensive line. Against USC, they will face a rushing offense that is among the nation's best regardless of what the statistics say (their ability to pass in a balanced offense hurts the raw numbers). Last season, USC averaged nearly 5 yards per carry on the ground and it is their depth that is possibly their biggest weapon here, wearing down defenses with three fresh backs. Ultimately, this battle is going to come down to USC's offensive line. Ohio State has both skilled and fundamentally sound linebackers, and if the defensive line gives them penetration then it will be a long day even for these talented backs. However, OSU's linebackers aren't known for their speed, and if USC's o-line wins the trenches, then OSU's linebackers might not be able to seal plays from a positional disadvantage.

Edge: Even

Passing

When USC lines up with a fullback or two tight ends, I don't like Patrick Turner and Vidal Hazelton getting much done against this secondary, not with Jenkins as such an elite cornerback. Though while the receivers might have trouble getting open against this great coverage, Sanchez has shown both incredible power and accuracy in his throws, and should be able to thread the ball into the slightest opening.

Ohio State has shown susceptibility to spread offenses and USC does have the ability to bring in three legitimate WRs with David Ausberry as their third, and OSU's base defense will have trouble stopping this. Additionally, Joe McKnight has great hands and is a threat in the passing game.

A wrench that could be thrown into things is the unknown of USC's pass protection. The University of Virginia simply was an inadequate test. Again, Ohio State has a great front seven, and pass protection is tough for a group that has little big game experience together. I don't expect this to be an issue - USC's offensive lines have performed so well for so many seasons - but if we're looking for a wildcard, this is the biggest unknown for the USC offense vs OSU defense matchups.

Edge: Slight USC

When Ohio State has the ball:

Running

Like Ohio State, USC has had an elite running defense the past two seasons, ranking #9 and #4. Ohio State has the nation's top runningback on their roster, but the question is will he play? Obviously this is a huge factor that will swing this matchup. On the lines, you have a great OSU offensive line vs a USC defensive line that has two new starters. Just those factors, Ohio State wins. But then you have to factor in the linebackers, the heart and strength of this USC defense. That swings the pendulum in their favor. Beanie Wells is a good enough back to overcome the edge USC has in their front seven vs the OSU front five. Maurice Wells and Brandon Saine? I don't think that they will have nearly as much success.

A factor that might come into play late is the approx 30 lb differential between the average USC defensive lineman and the average OSU offensive lineman. We expect both teams to rotate players, the USC defense probably a little more often, so I don't think this will show until the 4th quarter. But if the game is close or especially if OSU has the lead in the 4th, this could be an advantage for the Buckeyes to exploit.

Edge: Slight OSU

Passing

Frankly, I do not expect Ohio State to have much success throwing against this USC secondary. Todd Boeckman puts too much air under his deep passes and Taylor Mays is great at closing on the ball and making plays. Furthermore, Boeckman is not the quickest nor the best decision-maker. Ohio U brought delayed blitzes with defenders finding lanes to get to the QB. He needed to quickly find the open man and make the Bobcats pay for opening holes in their coverage, but did this on far too rare occasions. Pete Carroll will be bringing far more sophisticated and creative blitzes than Frank Solich did, how will Boeckman respond to that? Not well is my guess.

That said, USC's corner situation is strong but not excellent, and the OSU receivers run good short routes, where Boeckman is also very accurate and doesn't really need to think on the fly. This becomes more important if OSU is creating yards in the ground game and preoccupying the USC linebackers who are very strong in coverage. Brandon Saine is also a solid receiver, should he get more playing time due to Beanie Wells' status.

Edge: USC

Pryor/Spread(?)

For those keeping track, we've got an even matchup, two advantages for USC, and one for Ohio State. Even if OSU wins the kicking game, which they have decent odds of doing, USC also has home field advantage, so the Buckeyes have ground to make up! If it's going to happen, it has to be with Terrelle Pryor running 2-4 offensive drives and getting positive results. We're not going to see a freshman come in against USC and just lead the team to victory, but providing 10 points could be the difference in a close defensive game. If it's a shootout, OSU is toast anyway.

If you have watched much USC football the last four years, dual threat QBs are about the only thing that has really given this defense trouble. (Fresno State game in 05 aside) In their 2004 opener, VT's Randall avoided the rush with his feet and made huge plays - indeed, USC was fortunate that the Hokies killed themselves with procedural penalties. Of course we remember Vince Young's epic Rose Bowl performance against a USC team in their offensive prime. Then there was last season's late loss to Oregon, in which Dennis Dixon turned in a strong enough option performance to overcome USC handling the Ducks' receivers and being +120 yards through the air.

A plus about the Pryor spread packages is that it minimizes the impact of Wells' injury, and for that reason we may end up seeing as many as six drives led by the freshman. Texas ran the VY option better with speedy Jamaal Charles than they did with Cedric Benson. I would really like to see Pryor running option with speedster Brandon Saine in the backfield, even if Wells is available, as a threat to turn the corner and make a big play. This would also allow Wells to rest, as he is absolutely essential to the offense when Boeckman is in the game. Like Young (unworthy as the OSU freshman may be of this comparison), Pryor should actually be the #1 option on his reads, picking up yards in consistent chunks. Saine should be used to punish the defense for over-committing to Pryor or for committing too soon.

Edge: Ohio State

Injury Update

As I finalize thoughts on this, word has come in that OSU star running back Beanie Wells is listed as doubtful for this weekend's game. Obviously this is going to have an impact, but let's not forget that Ohio State's running game is halfway based on their mammoth offensive line and the Buckeyes are deep at the RB position. This makes the game more of an uphill battle for the Bucks, but not unwinnable if the players who are available bring their A game and if the gameplan takes full advantage of all weapons at the team's disposal.

Pick: USC

BCS Championship Game v.2

The BCS National Championship Game, or the Sugar Bowl Part II, is the second installation of the week-later BCS Championship game. Last year, Florida won the first version in dominant fashion over Ohio State, reversing 0-7 into 21-7 just a few plays into the second quarter and never looking back. In one of the most bizarre statistics I can think of, each of the last six BCS championship games has featured a team getting out to a 7-0 first quarter lead... only LSU and Miami (2001 not 2002) went on to win.

Without going too much into the 74 game history of the Sugar Bowl, some of its BCS highlights include:
* 1998 (I'm going by season; the game was played on Jan 1, 1999): Ohio State tops Texas A&M 24-14 in first BCS Sugar Bowl. The Buckeyes had lost the last non-BCS Sugar Bowl the previous year to Florida State.
* 1999: Florida State tops Virginia Tech 46-29 to win first BCS Championship crowned at the Sugar Bowl.
* 2001: LSU becomes first SEC team to win a BCS Sugar Bowl, 47-34 over Illinois.
* 2003: LSU wins BCS Championship over Oklahoma, 21-14, becomes first team to win two BCS Sugar Bowls.
* 2006: LSU wins third BCS Sugar Bowl, 41-14 over Notre Dame.

This game also features two of the most dominant BCS teams, along with USC who stands at 5-1 including a 3-1 Rose Bowl record and 1-1 BCS championship record. In fact, I think it will be fair to say that the winner of this game had the best overall BCS Bowl resume in the series' first ten years.

In the BCS era, LSU stands a perfect 3-0 in this bowl including a victory for the national championship. They have not played in any other BCS games. Ohio State is 1-0 in the BCS Sugar Bowl and 4-1 in all BCS games it has played in. Despite being from the Big Ten, all of Ohio State's BCS games have come in the Sugar or Fiesta Bowl.

The SEC is 3-0 in BCS championship games, despite their four title contenders (counting this LSU team) having an average of one loss per regular season, all suffered in conference play. Teams appearing in their third BCS Championship game (FSU, Oklahoma) are 0-2 in that game; if you count USC's Rose Bowl appearance against Texas as their third national championship game in the BCS era (Rose Bowl over Michigan for the split being their first), then that number's 0-3. Nobody has won two BCS championships, a statistic which is guaranteed to change after this game.

The Sugar Bowl is essentially a home game for LSU, and their 3-0 record in it shows what an advantage that can be. Surprisingly, "home teams" are just 1-2 in the BCS Championship (FSU lost to Oklahoma, LSU beat Oklahoma, USC lost to Texas). Speaking of "home teams" in BCS Bowls:

* The Fiesta Bowl hasn't hosted a team from Arizona in the last 10 years. The Pac 10 is 2-0 in the bowl with the Oregon teams each scoring a win.
* Florida teams are 3-3 in the Orange Bowl, including a Miami win over Florida. As three BCS conferences have teams in this state, a combined ACC/Big East/SEC record is probably meaningless.
* Louisiana teams (LSU) are 3-0 in the Sugar Bowl. The SEC is 6-2 in the bowl, although one loss came when the bowl was moved to Atlanta as New Orleans was flooded. Incidently, that made Georgia the "home team" that year in their loss to West Virginia.
* California teams are 3-3 in the Rose Bowl (USC 3-1, UCLA and Stanford each 0-1). The Pac 10 is 4-4 overall in this bowl.

Ohio State (by Coach Pendley)

Ohio State has been either the other team or the chosen one in their BCS Championship game berths. Back in 2002, they were the team in the way of Miami’s coronation as one of the best dynasties of the modern era. However, thanks to a pass interference call (justified or not, we’ll let other people fight over that) they walked away with that title. Of course, in 2006 they were supposed to be the best team in the country and it wasn’t even close. Maybe it was a six-week layoff (possible), maybe it was everyone underestimating Florida (likely), maybe it was everyone overrating the UM/OSU tilt of the ages (debatable, but remember that UM didn’t win the Rose Bowl), or maybe it was a series of improbable bad breaks caused by an offense that OSU hadn’t really prepared for adequately, but they lost to UF 41-14. Still, don’t hold Ohio State’s 1-1 BCS Championship record against them; if it’s not all on the line they’re 3-0 in BCS games, but since one of those wins was against Notre Dame, we can’t count it.

This year, they were the “oh yeah, those guys” team. They opened up the season at #11 in the AP poll (since they were going to field a good D no matter what), and by Week 6 they were in the Top 5. That was coming off a 23-7 win over Purdue (who we all thought could be good; shame on us) and it didn’t hurt that all hell was breaking loose around them. Still, like a train they kept on chugging up to the #1 overall spot by Week 8. They held that up until Week 11 when Illinois came in and barely won; OSU slid to #7. After a win against Michigan, they closed their season at #5 in the BCS, with only an outside shot at the championship game.

Then all hell broke loose. LSU lost to Arkansas, Kansas lost to Missouri – who turned around and lost to Oklahoma – and West Virginia couldn’t beat the 7th-place team in the Big East, and not only did Ohio State make back-to-back championship games, they’re the #1 BCS team. Again. Funny how that works.

This team would make Woody Hayes proud. They stop the run (3rd best rushing D in the nation) and can pound the ball – one of only 24 teams in the country averaging over 200 yards a game, and their run differential is the best in the nation, if not the best. Of course, they can’t pass the ball worth shit at just over 195 yards/game, but their pass D is superb with only 148 yards/game allowed. Not surprisingly, that also means that OSU has a ridiculous points allowed slate, allowing less than 11 ppg. Oddly enough, they’ve thrown no shutouts, but three teams got a FG or less and only one team scored over 20 against the Buckeyes. Of course, that one team was Illinois.

On offense, it begins with Chris Wells (and ends with Todd Boeckman). Wells has carried the running game with 1,463 yards and14 TDs. That includes a 5.76 ypc average. And yes, he does get better as the game goes on with a 7.06 ypc in the 3rd quarter and 6.46 ypc in the 4th. He averages over 6 yards a carry on both 1st and 2nd down and a full 16.5% of his carries go for over 10 yards. So not only is Wells the offense, he’s a legimate presence on the field that’ll demand his own coverage schemes in any offense. Maurice Wells (367 yards, 3.56 ypc) and frosh Brandon Saine (267 yards, 4.45 ypc).

Todd Boeckman isn’t much more than a caretaker QB, but he does have a couple of solid weapons in Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline. Combined they caught over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs. Aside from them, there’s not a ton in the passing game, but both Boeckman and Hartline are excellent. There’s not a lot else there. With one power back and a couple of good receivers, OSU doesn’t have the fliexibility to run out a ton of multi-formation sets to really get the defense to bite. They may be able to pull some zones, but TE Jake Ballard isn’t a gamebreaker and 3rd receiver Jay Small doesn’t get more than a couple of catches a game.

Still, you don’t watch Ohio State this year for the offense (unless, of course, you enjoy torture – in which case, we don’t judge here). Their defense is – again – outstanding, and it’s led by the LB corps. Everyone knew all about James Laurinaitis (103 tackles, 39 solo), but Marcus Freeman (95 tackles, 60 (!) solo) is at least as good as Laurinaitis. Larry Grant has a good ability to get behind the line with 9.5 TFL, but only 43 tackles on the year. The line is mostly tasked with keeping holes open for the LB to make plays, but Vernon Gholston has nearly as many tackles behind the line (14.5 TFL, 13 sacks) as he does on his side (19.5) and Cameron Heyward has also registered 9 TFL.

On defense, the team didn’t register a lot of INT as a whole (10 on the season), opting to go for pass breakups instead (38 on the year). The general rule on that is when a linebacker is 2nd in picks on the team, that’s not a good sign. Of course, they have returned two for TDs; leading INT man Michael Jenkins took one back for 24 yards and Donald Washington returned his only INT for a TD. So how are they successful? They’re great against the pass on 3rd down; their rather pedestrian 59% opponent completion rate on 2nd down, but that drops to 41% on 3rd down in virtually the same number of attempts.

A.J. Trapasso averages about 41 yards a punt, and while Ryan Pretorius isn’t quite his 2004 precessor, he still racked up 17/21 FGs.

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are going up against a team that was completely dominating – when healthy. How the hell are they going to pull this miracle off.

Gameplan:
First things first. OSU shouldn’t be thinking they’re the favorite, and there’s no way they’ll go into the Sugar Bowl not being aware of LSU’s homefiled advantage. So they’ll need to control the clock and win the line of scrimmage. And they’ll have to gameplan for two different QBs. Good times.

On offense, I want to test Dorsey’s health early. Yes, I know Glenn Dorsey is a beast when he’s healthy, but he spent most of the second half of the season at best banged up, if not outright injured. It’s likely he’s fully recovered now (and if he is, you’ll know almost immediately), but if he’s not LSU is in an interesting position. An injured Dorsey is still more effective than most DLs out there anyway, but it also means that the run-happy OSU offense can take the attack right to him. I highly doubt Miles will pull Dorsey unless it’s obvious he’s unable to play, but Ohio State is going to want to find out if he can go early. Attack his side of the line, but run like hell the other direction – literally – if he’s on his game.

For all the rushing attacks in the SEC, there’s nobody that LSU faced that runs quite like Wells does in this offense; Georgia comes closest, but …well, they never faced Georgia. They’ll need to exploit this, either running at Dorsey if he’s hurt or bringing an extra blocker across to help handle LSU’s D. It’ll be kind of tough to account for the Tigers’ speed, but it’ll have to be done, and that’ll happen with solid formations and playcalling.

I don’t think that OSU is going to be able to pull out some formations that LSU hasn’t seen, so here’s how it goes. Stick fo the fundamentals again; Boeckman will need to be accurate and make sure he doesn’t throw something that the Brians can’t catch – because if they can’t, someone from the LSU secondary probably will.

On defense, I want to watch Jacob Hester in formation. With as many backs as LSU has, it seems odd that you can kind of key on the actions of one specific back, but LSU uses Hester as their generic back. He’s a bruising runner, but there’s an interesting trend to when they use Hester. Against Arkansas, most of Hester’s snaps were on pass plays, but against Tennessee, Hester was used in a lot of run formations. It’s likely LSU will have realized this weakness, but someone in Ohio State’s coaching booth needs to be monitoring Hester’s use early in the game. It’ll likely be a halftime adjustment, but if Hester isn’t getting used in both run and pass plays, Ohio State should be able to key on that to get a few big plays and/or defensive stops. In a game where OSU will likely need whatever advantage they can afford, there’s no way they can turn down this opportunity of free scouting if it comes up.

Of course, that’s only one of LSU’s many backs. Given six weeks, you might be able to figure out a plan to stop each one of them individually, but I’ll sum it up: do NOT let them get the corner. I’m not too concerned about OSU stopping the power running game; they’ve done that all year. Get lateral and hold the line of scrimmage.

But what about Flynn and Perriloiux? Perriloux is going to mostly run option, so the same things that applied to the running game apply here. Flynn is a lot like Boeckman in that he’s a caretaker-type QB, but he’s a bit more talented. Get pressure on Flynn, but Doucet, Byrd, and LaFell are all great receivers, so guard against the deep threat. (I might even peg Doucet a couple of times, but you never read that.) Blitz Flynn to the outside and Perriloux to the inside.

LSU Tigers (by Coach Lawrence)

I don't know that any team in the country embodies their mascot as well as the LSU Tigers. In a word, their season has been ferocious. On opening night, LSU won a road game at Mississippi State 45-0, allowing just 146 yards and forcing six (!) interceptions. The game didn't look impressive at the time, but with MSU finishing 8-5 with a bowl win suddenly that blowout becomes at least mildly impressive. Not as impressive as what occurred the following week, a 48-7 annihilation of eventual ACC champion Virginia Tech. VT eventually finished with the #2 scoring defense in the country, which is literally their average for the last four seasons. The Hokies hadn't allowed that many points since . The next victim was Middle Tennessee, 44-0. Then #12 (overrated) South Carolina provided some resistance in a 28-16 victory for the Tigers, highlighted by a trick play over the head toss to the kicker on a field goal for a touchdown. A blowout of Tulane concluded a 5-0 September in which the LSU Tigers outscored opponents 199-32.

The first game of October brought Tim Tebow to Baton Rouge, who played an outstanding first half to give the Gators a 17-7 lead. The Tigers responded on the opening drive of the third quarter, attempting a fake field goal from 42 yards to gain a first down and eventually put the ball in the end zone. LSU again narrowed the lead to 3 in the 4th quarter, opting to throw a pass on 4th down at the Gator 4 rather than settling for a FG and a 7 point deficit. Getting the ball back with 9:20 to play, LSU drove 60 yards in 8:06 to score the decisive TD, including a pair of 4th down conversions. Both 4th down plays and the game winning TD on third down came with the same call - Hester up the gut. But the following week the Tigers would be the ones squandering the lead, up 27-14 at Kentucky when it all fell apart. Great QB play from Andre Woodson, baffling play from Matt Flynn, and, yes, a few key injuries and questionable calls. Not in the clear yet, LSU found themselves trailing Auburn by 10 at halftime the following week. A pair of field goals made it a 4-point game going into the final period, when the teams traded scores leaving Auburn with a 1 point lead. With seven seconds remaining, Miles dailed a 22-yard fade to the end zone rather than kicking a 39 yard FG with Colt David who was already 3/3 for the day. It worked. Of course, if LSU was the "cardiac Tigers" in October, then the month lasted a few days extra this year because LSU found themselves in a dogfight on the road with coaching legend Nick "the sAviOr" Saban's Alabama Dolphi... er, Crimson Tide. A Tide PR TD with less than 8 minutes remaining gave them a 7 point lead, which still stood with 3 minutes to play. On 4th and 4, LSU threw a 32 yard TD pass to tie the game. Three plays later, LSU sacked John Parker Wilson and recovered a fumble to set up a short TD drive, 41-34 Tigers.

LSU appeared to be out of the woods following that, destroying Louisiana Tech and winning comfortably against Mississippi. In the final week of the regular season, Darren McFadden appeared to silence the Tigers' title hopes, racking up 206 yards and 3 TDs on the ground while passing for another in a triple overtime game that came down to a failed 2-point conversion. Then Kansas and Oregon lost later that day, Missouri and West Virginia were upset in the final week, and LSU won with a defensive touchdown in the SEC Championship against Tennessee.

LSU's choice over Georgia, Oklahoma, USC, and Virginia Tech was controversial. I won't rehash it in detail except to say that LSU beating Virginia Tech probably had a lot to do with it. USC's loss to Stanford and Oregon's late season dive killed their computer rankings even if the Trojans had been the voters' choice, and Oklahoma... well, let's just say that their loss in the Fiesta Bowl has become Bob Stoops' BCS norm. With Kansas and Hawaii both unproven (indeed, Hawaii was a fraud, and while the Jayhawks proved themselves legit they did nothing in the Orange Bowl to make me think they are the best team in the country), that really left only LSU and Georgia... and if LSU is champion of Georgia's conference and both have the same record, then that's a tiebreaker at worst.

So now we've got our matchup. How does LSU do what they do?

When LSU is in top form, things begin with their defense. (this hasn't always been the case, but their slew of defensive injuries are supposedly healed during the break) LSU allows 103.1 rushing yards per game (14th) on 3.1 yards per carry (18th). This number was significantly better (68 ypg, 2.1 ypc) prior to Dorsey's injury in the Auburn game. This is noteable because, according to him, Glen Dorsey is back up to 100% going into the BCS Championship game. LSU's pass defense has remained excellent even without Dorsey to drive the pressure game. LSU's 96.1 opposing QB rating is 3rd in the nation, total ypg of 180.8 ranks 9th, and they have a 17/21 ratio. The secondary is solid all-around, with Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon both providing excellent corner skills and safety Craig Steltz leading the team in interceptions with 6. Steltz and linebacker Ali Highsmith are the top two on the team in tackles.

So why isn't the defense ranked in the top 10 scoring? Overtime games. I'm not buying into the "best regulation team" pitch, but when you're playing six periods where the opponent gets to start with the ball on your own 25 and the defense is already worn out from playing a full game, that's going to artificially inflate your scoring average. LSU allowed 38 points in those six overtimes leading to their losses. Without that (ie, in the same circumstances Ohio State's defense has been measured by), LSU gave up 217 points in 13 games - a 16.38 ppg average that would have finished 6th nationally. Looking at the teams allowing between 16 and 18 ppg (Kansas, Auburn, West Virginia, Penn State) that sounds about right.

Offensively, LSU is a very well-rounded team. Their most consistent area has been the power running game, where Jacob Hester averages 78.3 ypg on a shade under 5 ypc. Keiland Williams and Charles Scott provide a small change of pace, but it's Trindan Holliday who has game-breaking speed and gets the ball on plays designed to get him to the outside. Overall, seven players, including both quarterbacks, have played in ten or more games and contribute 15 or more yards per game for a rushing attack that averages 218.9 ypg total (#12) and 5.06 ypc (#11). The passing game, on the other hand, has been very on-off in its performance. It is noteworthy that in both of their losses, LSU completed less than 50% of their passes and averaged less than 5 yards per attampt. The only other game this happened in - against South Carolina - was a mere 28 point outing in which the special teams provided a touchdown and the ground game was overpowering. Overall, LSU's passing game is a mere 43rd nationally in rating at 131.53 and 53rd in yards per game at 229.2. Both of their quarterbacks are very mobile, though, particularly Ryan Perrilloux. Early Doucet is the team's leading receiver in averages and he is definitely the go-to guy. Brandon LaFell is the speedster and deep threat, but he's had his share of drops in big games. In the end, LSU scores 38.7 points per game to come in 12th nationally.

Of course, if we do the same overtime adjustment that we did to their defense, that drops LSU to 473 points scored in 13 games - a 36.38 ppg average that would have been ranked #17. Got to be consistent, eh Les?

Gameplan:

When Ohio State has struggled defensively, it has been against teams with speed, the abolity to spread the field, and a dual-threat QB. Because of this, I would use Ryan Perrilloux more often than LSU typically has this season. The sophomore had a pretty good outing against Tennessee and has actually compiled a better QB rating and yards per attempt than Matt Flynn. Perrilloux and Holliday would make a very fast backfield, the kind which could give OSU trouble for big plays, although Hester, Williams, and Scott all compliment a running QB nicely by providing a more powerful ball carrier. Perrilloux plus one of the three main backs, Doucet, LaFell, and Byrd/Dickson (the latter for the option to block), and Holliday as the speed option would be a really versatile and difficult group for this defense to defend.

While OSU is among both the best run and pass defense teams statistically, I believe that their schedule has tested their (standard) run defense more than their pass defense. Therefore, when Flynn is in the game (and for about half of Perrilloux's snaps unless the option game is going really well), the emphasis should be on airing the ball out and spreading the secondary thin. If the pass defense holds, the power game with Hester is always there, but I question how successful this can be if the OSU linebackers aren't a little preoccupied with coverage. The OSU run defense, particularly against power backs, does appear to be legitimately tops in the nation.

Defensively, stopping Chris Wells is of course top priority. The all-purpose back gains 122 ypg on 5.76 ypc, an impressive feat. Fortunately he does not have the hands to be much of a receiving threat. This is again a gameplan that will call for heavy pressure on the line of scrimmage. Until Boeckman proves he can beat LSU's corners, the safeties should be a few yards up and the linebackers ready to plug running lanes, if not blitzing from the get-go.

Ohio State has only two players with 20 or more receptions on the season - Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline. Neither one is anywhere near the caliber of Ohio State's #1 and #2 receivers from a year ago... indeed, this pair would make a great #2 and #3 receiver, but there just isn't that dominant guy who makes defenses adapt their coverage schemes to him. Jackson and Zenon are probably fine on their own. At the start of the game, LSU might put 8 or 9 guys in the box, but if Dorsey's having a big impact on the line or if the LSU offense is putting points on the board, I'd start playing tampa 2 coverage with lots of linebacker blitzing thrown in there. This coverage scheme without dedicated underneath help from the LBs is possible because OSU doesn't have great receiving backs or tight ends. When OSU goes 3 WR, a 6-man zone or safety coverage on Ray Small (averages 1.9 catch & 25.3 yargs per game) is a good adjustment to the base defense without giving up that run-stopping power of their front seven. The bottom line is that Steltz, Jackson, and Zenon are a trio who have the potential to create a lot of interceptions on poorly thrown passes... if the defense tempts Boeckman to air it out a little bit, that's probably a good thing.