Random Thoughts: Pac-10(!) Edition

First off, if you haven’t seen the modified Top 25 rankings, check them out; I hadn’t gotten a chance to add my thoughts to the rankings. That’s taken care of now.

So right now, we have almost 120 teams (Western Kentucky joins the Sun Belt next year) in we’re-not-calling-it-1-A-anymore, and if you think we’re covering all of them, you’re nuts. We’ll do our best to get to the ones that matter, though, and on that note here’s a bunch of random notes and thoughts about some teams.

- UCLA: if you’ve missed the news, Ben Olson is injured again and won’t be available for the first few weeks of the season at best. This will cause Kevin Craft to move up to the starting role, meaning he’ll likely get the nod against Tennessee, BYU, and Arizona (if not Fresno State). This is about as painful as it sounds for Bruins fans, but the rest of us are laughing at the turn of misfortune.

- Arizona State: the offensive line problems are very real here. We’ve already documented our concerns with it on a few occasions (it’s the main thing holding them back), but the good news is that they have three games to get it together. The bad news is they’re one injury to Paul Faniaka away from having a completely decrepit offensive line, but for those of us used to calling them the Arizona State Paper Sun Devils, that’s good news too.

- Left tackles are apparently optional at Georgia. Trinton Sturdivant is out at LT for the season, and while this will be his RS year it won’t make life any easier for the ‘Dogs. They’re not sure what they’ll do about it, but there’s enough talent there to make coping difficult yet not impossible. Expect some combination of Justin Anderson, Vince Vance, Kiante Tripp, Cordy Glenn, and Josh Davis to flip around in pursuit of that spot; of those guys, Vance and Tripp are already starters.

- Does anyone have a spare ACL for Florida? They’ve lost five (!) guys already to ACL tears: starters Cornelius Ingram and Dorian Munroe, plus backups Jim Barrie, John Curtis, and Brendan Beal. Ingram was undoubtedly the biggest loss of those five, but Munroe and Curtis were both SS, which means secondary depth is already a concern. Beal might’ve redshirted this year anyway, so that seals the deal for him, and Barrie hurts the line depth. The Gators should be fine coping with the losses, but if injuries in the secondary start to pile up, you heard it here first.

Speaking of the Gators, they allowed straight thuggin’ Ronnie Wilson to rejoin the team. EDSBS summed this up way better than we could even dream of, but: bad form, Meyer. You’re in a state that’s fucking loaded with talent; did you really need a guy who knows how to fire assault rifles in public?

- Kentucky’s kicked starting QB Curtis Pulley off the team. Mike Hartline will assume QB duties for the Wildcats, which will consist of “run around like crazy praying to g-d Dicky Lyons can shed triple coverage before getting wrecked”. I’d say this is a big deal, but I’d be lying my ass off; nobody cares about Kentucky this year.

- If this isn’t the gayest college football article you read all year, I will be very surprised. I didn’t realize they let the gays out in Tuscaloosa. That being said, Jones could be one hell of a playmaker, and I’d be scared of him if I had any confidence that John Parker Wilson, Esq. could actually turn in a consistent week-to-week performance.

- So I’ve been reading a fair amount of articles on how TAMU’s offense will be designed to feature Mike Goodson more, and I refuse to buy it. I’ll buy that Stephen McGee won’t be running the ball as much this season, but I think it’s a reach to assume a guy with Goodson’s size won’t get wrecked running behind an offensive line returning only one starter. Compound that with learning a new offensive scheme, and while we can expect Jovorski Lane to rack up the close yardage and TDs without getting too injured, I’ll need to see Goodson as the feature back before signing on. Actually, I’ll buy Goodson as the featured back, but I won’t buy him as the signature back. It just seems like a mess waiting to happen.

- Is Texas Tech due for a letdown? They’re facing the highest expectations since …well, ever, and there are still some huge questions around their defense. Mike Leach is saying all the right things and the team is at least acting like they’re focused, but I buy that as much as I buy the “[pitcher] is feeling great this season” articles that show up in spring training, after said pitcher has spent the last 112 weeks on the DL. At some point, we’ll actually have to see the actual improvement in focus and commitment from the Red Raiders, and the last five years would seem to indicate otherwise: 2003, L 21-49 @ NC State; 2004, L 24-27 @ New Mexico; 2005, L 17-24 @ Oklahoma St.; 2006, L 6-30 @ Colorado; 2007, L 45-49 @ Oklahoma State, again. Consider this a warning to take care of business on the road, guys.

- Speaking of saying the right things, Duke is quickly becoming a soft spot for me. Admittedly, 90% of this is because David Cutcliffe has become their HC, but it’s kind of weird seeing a bunch of guys who have been playing football for 6+ years on average (if not longer) talk about what it actually means to be a college football athlete. It makes me wonder what Ted Roof was doing as HC there and how he was able to land a job somewhere else, even if it was at Minnesota. Will it matter? I suspect not, but the ACC is bad enough that they could sneak a conference win (Virginia? NC State?) and finish the season 3-9. Bonus points: only one team – Clemson – has scheduled Duke for their homecoming opponent. This is a step up, as Virginia gets dinged on that twice.

That’ll cover it for now.

Alamo Bowl (not Historically Based)

Some bowl games feature up-and-coming teams and excited fan bases. They play games that people will be talking about for years to come, epic tilts that end up immortalized on ESPN Classic for 25 years And then there’s clunkers like this year’s Alamo Bowl team, which includes:
- two fanbases with unrealistic team expectations, but they travel well
- two teams that couldn’t even top .500 in-conference
- two teams whose out-of-conference slate included Fresno State and the Chess Club Champions of 1-A football (plus Notre Dame)

Yes, Penn State and Texas A&M combined for a 15-9 record, but don’t think either team is good. Yes, both teams have storied histories, but one of them hasn’t even won a game on January 1st or later since 1986. And given Texas A&M’s 264.2 ypg allowed through the air, maybe they could use the 12th man on defense if the refs would agree not to flag them for it. And you just know they're going to be making fun of the Longhorns because they're playing in a later bowl game (even though it's way less prestigious).

Fun fact that’s not related to this game at all: of the 12 teams Notre Dame played, 5 of them finished in the top 20 nationally in sacks – not including Boston College, who’s 22nd. Georgia Tech (9 sacks against) and Penn State (6 sacks against) are 1-2 overall. Is that a product of great defenses or Notre Dame’s O-line – who, for completeness sake, allowed 58 sacks on the season? You make the call!

Penn State (by Coach Pendley)

Did you know that Penn State played their first football game in 1881? Yeah, Joe Paterno wasn’t on the sidelines yet, although given the map of the world currently on his face, you’d be forgiven for thinking he did. Since he’s come on board, the Nittany Lions have gone 22-10-1 in bowl games, which is impressive any way you slice it. (And yes, that includes the “who wants it less” Orange Bowl of 2006.) Of course, that’s also a nice way of saying he’s old as dirt, but: duh. He’s an excellent coach, and that really can’t be stated enough at this point, recent struggles or no.

After Austin Scott spent most of the season pissing his chance away, the rushing load was picked up by Rodney Kinlaw, who ran for 1186 yards and 10 scores. QB Anthony Morelli was excellent at home, throwing for ~1400 yards and an 11/4 ratio. (Ignore his road numbers – not great – and his hideous second half numbers, the least of which is a 4/7 ratio.) The WRs aren’t complete world-beaters, but Deon Butler, Derrick Williams, and Jordan Norwood all average between 40 and 50 yards a game.

On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s defense kept them in tons of games. They have the 8th-best scoring D in the country (allowing just under 18 points), which is helped by their 2nd-in-the-country sack squad. Also helpful: the 6th-best rushing defense – in the run-happy Big 10, holding your opponents to 2.57 ypc is impressive. Just ignore the fact that their run defense gets worse in the second half and spread / spread rush offenses gave them fits (216 yards on the ground against Illinois, 145 against Michigan State).

Keys to Victory:
1: >=3 sacks. Yeah, it sounds like a lot, but Penn State has won every game they’ve gotten to the QB at least 4 times – and lost every game they didn’t. This’ll be difficult against an Aggie team who only averages 28.8 passes a game – and has only allowed 14 sacks on the year.

2: Shake off the running QB. Steven McGee is a threat between the 20s, but it’s Jovorski Lane who’s the threat to score – 16 TDs on the year and the kid’s a beast – 6’0” and 268. McGee will cause coverage fits, but Lane will have to be stopped somehow. Actually, this Aggie team has everything that causes the PSU front seven to lose sleep – a mobile QB and a two-headed RB attack (Mike Goodson is the “normal” RB).

3: Solid second half. It’s already been documented here that the Nittany Lions seem to play worse in the second half; if they can maintain their first half production through the final 30 minutes, they’ll have an excellent chance to come out and win.

4: Hypnotize Morelli into thinking it’s a home game. While his raw stats aren’t that worse on the road – he does have more passing yards, but also another 5 attempts a game – he doesn’t look as comfortable playing in a hostile environment (PSU fans would use harsher language than that). If he thinks it’s a home game, then he should be fine. Maybe someone can pay off the PA announcer to play “Zombie Nation” after every first down or something.

Texas A&M (by Coach Lawrence)

Since their ’99 Alamo Bowl shutout defeat, A&M has gone bowling just 4 times in six seasons, compiling a 1-3 record. However, A&M appeared to turn things around last season, finishing with a 9-3 regular season mark and a win over archrival Texas before getting pummeled by Cal in the Holiday Bowl. This season didn’t look much better, losing to the hapless Miami Hurricanes and getting blown out by Texas Tech, with a string of games against the conference’s top four teams to close out their season. However, after losses to Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri, A&M got the win they really wanted against Texas once again, spoiling the Longhorns’ late-season momentum and propelling the Aggies into this late December bowl.

A&M does one thing well: run the ball. Their rushing defense is average, passing offense and defense below average, but they rank 13th in rushing at 215.6 ypg. Three players average over 50 ypg rushing in their option offense, led by QB Sam McGee at 71.5 ypg. Jorvorskie Lane is the bruiser-back at 268 lbs, while Mike Goodson’s speed and agility makes him the big play threat. Defensively, though, A&M gives up 4 ypc and 151 ypg rushing, and the pass defense allows a QB rating of 141.8.

Keys to Victory:
1. Spread the ball equally with the option. Penn State is too good defensively (2.5 ypc rush, #6 rushing defense at 87.9 ypg) for the Aggies to get predictable. A&M has a lot of variety in their running game and they use a traditional option of shotgun formation with two backs.

2. Set up the pass – to Goodson - with the McGee/Lane running. If you watched the Texas game, you saw Goodson clearly being their best receiver, regardless of what ypg receiving statistics may say. He is a big play threat off of the kind of passes that McGee can actually complete, and indeed he leads the team in TD receptions with 4.

3. Stack the line, force Morelli to beat you. Penn State also really likes to run the ball... I think, even if Morelli has some early success, he’s not the kind of QB who is going to score a lot of points on his own or win big games on his own. In my opinion, he was one of the most overrated QBs this preseason, and not much this season has proven me wrong (127 rating, 18 TD 9 INT). Penn State’s rushing average is 214 in wins, 134 in losses... go ahead, put 8 or 9 in the box.