BCS Bowl Game Simulationss (by LFB): Fiesta Bowl

So - a little bit of background. Aside from the Holiday Bowl, the bowls have either a) involved shitty teams, b) been uninteresting, or c) both. Left Field Bluffs decided to take matters into our own hands. In this first edition of LFB Bowl Simulations, we're playing the Fiesta Bowl - James as Texas and Russ as Ohio State. For the nerds: 6-minute quarters, injuries off (yes, I know), and All-American.

1st Quarter

Ohio State won the toss and elected to defer. Opening kickoff run back to the 31 for Texas. First play from scrimmage - out route to the sideline for a three-yard loss. (Woody Hayes does not approve.) Ogbonnaya then rips off a fucking huge gain (um, 70-yard pass?) to the Buckeye 5. After doing nothing in a hurry on 1st down, McCoy whips an interception to Lauranitis - in true Tressel fashion, he sits on it in the end zone.

Ohio State hangs Beanie Wells out to dry and Terrelle Pryor can't complete a pass to save his life (yeah, I know). However, 3rd down proves fruitful as he lofts a nice corner route completion - aided in part by a questionable roughing the passer call. Imagine that a few plays in a row are what you expect from a Tressel offense - not terribly exciting at all but somehow continuing to get first downs and positive yardage. There really isn't a lot to see here until a 3rd and 4 when Pryor does his best Rudy Carpenter imitation and gets nailed. However, in a bit of a change from typical Tressel-ball, the ensuing punt sails into the end zone. Texas ball on their 20.

Neither team should look at running the option - they can't do shit with it, at least not now. McCoy bails a nice pass to ...um, one of Texas' FBs (we have no idea) before doing his best Drew Weatherford impression, throwing not one but two passes into triple coverage. The second pass is intercepted and returned for six. 7-0, Buckeyes.

Nice return for Texas to their own 36, followed by a rollout completion (crossing route) for a first down. After another first down, McCoy chucks another jump ball - underthrown and picked by Kurt Coleman. McCoy got the tackle on this one, at least. Buckeye ball....again.

2nd Quarter

We missed a few plays in there between then and the end of the quarter, but there wasn't a whole lot to see. On their first third down, Pryor drops a pass just a little too short - picked off. Apparently both guys think scoring is bullshit.

Texas - first play, big-ass gain to Cosby! First and goal; this time Texas finally learns to NOT FUCKING PASS IT THAT CLOSE - you hear that, Mack? Punched in from the 1 for a tie game at 7.

Ohio State on offense ...again, not too exciting. Really, I could be writing about 4 and 5-yard gains, but you don't want to read about that and I don't want to write about it. Heck, you probably don't want to read this anyway, but it's either this or go back to work - ha! 3rd and 2 is stuffed, resulting in another punt.

Texas ain't doing shit either. They had a nice punt return, but got sacked (next play resulted in a first down, and so did the one after that). Long story short: Ohio State's defense is getting tired - and there it goes! Vondrell McGee takes it in on a 16-yard run to the corner, and it's 14-7 Looooonghorns.

For whatever reason, that score took a bit out of OSU - they don't get shit on their next drive (actually get less than shit - -5 yards) and are forced to punt. Time update: Texas has 1:24 and three timeouts from the Buckeye 43.

Texas nails a huge, huge gain on a pass to Jordan Shipley that barely manages to stay inbounds! Unofficial booth replay confirms the call on the field, and shockingly the confirmed booth replay doesn't even happen (bullshit). However, that's going to be just about it. Field goal attempt before the half - off the upright! Ohio State's ensuing Hail Mary goes nowhere.

3rd Quarter

Well, Ohio State gets the ball first, for all the good it did them. First play from scrimmage, first pass of the second half - it's now 21-7 Texas. At least Ohio State gets another chance. This drive's more like the Buckeye way - except for the 4th down conversion (Tressel would've punted and you know it). I'm missing most of this, since I'm looking for "Don't Cry Out Loud" videos. Actually, I completely missed the drive, but it took half the quarter and resulted in a TD, so this is pretty much Ohio State football. 21-14 OSU.

Texas throws their fourth INT of the game (apparently Ohio State will come back in this game, no matter what the actual gameplay dictates). However, Buckeye goes nowhere fast and gets to punt again, even though the ball is on the Texas 46 - dumped into the end zone again.

Texas once again lucks out on one of those weird barely-got-a-foot-in completions that isn't reviewed. Again. This time it doesn't result in a TD - they have to punt! That's Texas's first punt of the game, although it's far from their only returned possession. Ohio State doesn't doa whole lot before the end of the quarter - I've been saying that a lot lately.

4th Quarter

Finally, a legitimate miscue - Texas' punt returner attempts to run without the ball after the inevitable OSU punt. However, it was recovered by the Longhorns, so no super-excitement there. Possession goes nowhere - punt time! Again.

HUGE return by the Buckeyes to the Longhorn 20! After a couple of runs that go nowhere, Pryor hits a TD pass to Ray Small and we're tied! It's 21-21 with just 3:40 to go in the game.

So that tie game? Never mind. First play from scrimmage is a 65-yard pass to Vondrell McGee .... 28-21.

Ohio State's next possession doesn't go anywhere on the first two plays, but the third down conversion goes for about 18 on a crossing route to Ray Small again. However, Pryor gets sacked on the next play (side note: we have yet to see Boeckman). Jump ball goes nowhere - take note, Jeffy. A huge 3rd and 20 ends up with a 13-yard completion ... and we see a 4th-down attempt! Shotgun snap, 3 WRs.... sacked!

All Texas has to do at this point is run out the clock .. but we're ending up with a 3rd down all the same. Huge option lateral ends up BARELY getting a first down! Ohio State's forced to start spending their timeouts here - actually, scratch that, it won't matter. A facemask penalty kills any shot Ohio State had at winning - and the asshole move of kicking a FG when time expired goes awry.

Big 12: Championship Week, BCS Scenerios

The Big 12 Championship Game

The 2008 Big 12 Championship features two teams with equal or lesser records as the Texas Longhorns, an 0-2 record against Texas with average margin of defeat 17.5 points, and a lower ranking than Texas in both the AP and Harris polls. (OU led Texas by one point in the Coaches poll) I'm not going to pretend not to be bitter about this, and I'll feel no shame in flagrantly rooting against the conference representative in a potentially image-redefining BCS Championship should Oklahoma go. With that said, let's talk about the upcoming game in Kansas City.

Oklahoma enters this game red-hot, especially on the offensive side. Since being held to 35 points by Texas, Oklahoma has averaged 59.5 points per game. Their 53.3 ppg for the season is the highest by any team during the BCS era. It's no stretch to say that we are looking at one of the best college offenses in the last ten years, and their performance in the next two games could vault the unit into the all-time discussion. Sam Bradford has thrown for a ridiculous 340 ypg, 191.0 QB rating, and 46:6 ratio. Counting a few runs, he has scored 51 TDs. Demarco Murray has eclipsed 1000 rushing yards and Chris Brown is just 12 yards away from accomplishing the same feat.

Defensively, Oklahoma has issues. The unit ranks 61st in scoring defense, and you have to remember that 2007 LSU is the only team ever to win a BCS Championship Game with a defense ranked outside of the top 10 in scoring (as I noted, if we take away overtime points then they were something like 6th in scoring). That could be an issue in a month. This weekend, though, Oklahoma is more than capable of beating Missouri by simply outgunning the Tigers' offense.

Missouri's offense is no slouch either, coming in ranked 4th in scoring at 45 ppg. Chase Daniel has struggled with consistency issues, but at the end of the day still has a 168.5 rating and a 34:13 ratio. The Tigers are trying to run the ball better this year, averaging 165 ypg on the ground, but their identity is still in the passing game. Jeremy Maclin has developed into one of the nation's top receivers - despite a decline in his special teams produection - and Chase Coffman has stepped up to be a premiere tight end, averaging 87 ypg in receptions.

Missouri's defense has also been porous, 59th in scoring and barely holding opposing offenses under 400 ypg. This is their ranking despite not facing Oklahoma or Texas Tech during the regular season! We saw them give up 40 points last week to Kansas, a team which has struggled in 2008 after an outstanding 2007. There is really little chance that this unit will fare much better against the Sooners than their other recent opposition has.

All-in-all, Missouri will probably get 1-3 defensive stops in this game, at least up until the point where the game's outcome is no longer in doubt. The Missouri offense will have to perform nearly flawlessly for them to have a chance to win -- something that looked possible at the beginning of the season, but simply hasn't materialized on the field. Chase Daniel will need to cut down on the mistakes and play like the ~80% passer he was in September for the Tigers to even have a chance in this one.

BCS Scenerios

There are two BCS scenerios for the Big 12:

If Oklahoma defeats Missouri

* Oklahoma faces the SEC Champion in the BCS Championship

* Texas plays in the Fiesta Bowl

If Missouri defeats Oklahoma

* Texas faces the SEC Champion in the BCS Championship

* Missouri plays in the Fiesta Bowl

Couldn't a Florida upset of Alabama lead to a Texas vs Oklahoma BCS Rematch?

Some sportswriters are propagating this theory, which is just ludicrous. The idea is that if OU beats Missouri and Florida beats Alabama, Texas and Florida will finish neck-and-neck in the voter polls while Texas wins the bulk of the computer polls. This is wrong for two reasons:

It won't be close in the voter polls. Florida has been *annihilating* every team they've faced since mid October. Not only outscoring them (like Oklahoma) but doing that while also shutting down the opposing offense. It's been downright scary. The only knock on Florida is the lack of a truly marquee win - marquee on the level that Texas beating Oklahoma or Oklahoma beating Texas Tech was marquee. Giving Alabama their only loss in the conference championship would give the Gators that quality win, and rightly propel them into the top two of the voter polls.

Realize that Oklahoma just jumped ahead of Texas in the computer polls after defeating Oklahoma State, and despite having lost to Texas. (so any gain in OU's ratings boosted the Texas ratings) Florida would get a much larger boost from beating Alabama, and additionally that's not doing anything to help Texas' ratings. Realistically, Florida will be ahead of Texas in at least three of the computer polls if they defeat Alabama. I'd bet on them being ahead in four or five.

The SEC Champion is going to the BCS title game.

Couldn't a Missouri win lead to the Big 12 not getting into the BCS Championship?

Why? Because Texas isn't "conference champion" and the team that would be, Missouri, is clearly not one of the top two teams in the country?

The conference champion argument ultimately boils down to the idea that conference champion = best team. For example, if 2001 Colorado was the B12 Champion, then if they weren't good enough to play in the BCS championship, it must be true that teams who are worse than them (Nebraska) weren't good enough either. On some level, that argument works if you buy into Colorado's close rematch win over Texas making them the better team, or for that matter if you consider Colorado's win over Nebraska not an upset despite their records. I'm not going to discuss the 2001 Big 12 though; in the 2008 season, clearly, Missouri is not the best team (or even a top 3 team) in the Big 12. If they win it will truly be an upset, like Iowa beating Penn State or Oregon State beating USC. The only difference will be that Missouri's upset took place in a game that negates the regular season.

For Oklahoma, that's of little consolation. It would be the Sooners' second loss, which alone makes them less deserving than a team like USC. But for Texas, voters will rationalize that the Big 12 Conference simply dropped the ball and invited the wrong team to represent the South. After all, Texas easily defeated Missouri by 25 points in October in a surprisingly one-sided game. They defeated Oklahoma by 10. They lost one game on a last-second bomb to the end zone. The voters already felt that Texas was more deserving than Oklahoma, but their vote was so close that the computers were able to overturn it. A Missouri upset makes Texas the de-facto best team in the conference.

What about the numbers? Texas, Utah, Texas Tech, and Penn State are all idle. There is no reason for the voters to swap teams based on that, and obviously the computers will not swap any of those teams while they are not playing. USC? They're a solid 2-3 spots behind Texas in the voter polls, and 6 spots behind in the computer average! Playing a terrible UCLA team who just allowed ASU's defense to score four touchdowns is just not going to give them the massive boost they'd need to overtake Texas.

The closest possibility is a Florida-Alabama rematch if Florida wins. But the voters would probably be more opposed to this than to sending Texas to the BCS Championship, and on top of that Alabama already trails Texas in the computer polls; a loss would only inflate that margin.

If Oklahoma loses this Saturday, Texas is in.

The Holiday Bowl - Hey, It's pre-January, But It's Something Good!

The Holiday Bowl - aka "The Only Bowl Anyone Cares About Before December 31st Unless Their Team Is Involved" - has been one of the more exciting bowls in recent years. They've done a great job hosting the shunted Big 12 or Pac-10 team du jour, most of whom have been too sad at getting hosed that they don't bother to show up for the game. (I'm lookin' at you, 2004 Cal. BCS this.) From the bowl’s perspective it’s great – 05 Oregon, 04 Cal, 03 Texas, 01 Texas, and 00... Texas were all BCS-quality teams who were left out due to some combination of voter bias, upsets in the conference championship game giving the league’s 4th-best team an automatic berth while the #1 and #2 teams had to hope for one at-large, and secret clauses designed to give a cash-lined path to a January bowl to Notre Dame. This year, Arizona State gets the Pac-10 shaft. It could certainly be argued they had a good chance of a BCS bowl, but thanks to the Rose Bowl having its head too far up its ass (again.... and again. It's like we're not even surprised about this anymore), Illinois went BCS bowling instead of Arizona State. And yes, Cotton-bound Missouri is ranked higher than five BCS teams including both Rose Bowl teams, but we'll crucify that decision some more later. Plenty of time for that.

I mean, you'd think that the #2 Pac-10 team would play, y'know, around the 31st at worst, but apparently Tom Hansen has decided it's more fun to stick them in San Diego and hope it's a Saturday night game for high ratings. Someone should buy that guy a calendar or something.

But as we’ve mentioned, the Holiday Bowl has been a graveyard for whiny teams. Only because Mack Brown was forced at gunpoint to finally start Major Applewhite over Chris Simms in the 2001 Holiday Bowl did any of those five left-out teams even win one Holiday Bowl game. The 2007 Holiday Bowl features a pair of top 25 teams – not a good game to sleep on and wonder what might have been.

Arizona State (by Coach Pendley)

So why the hell is this ASU team deserving of a BCS bid, anyway? They took care of business. Sure, they lost to the two best teams they played (Oregon pre-Dixon ACL tear and USC), but they ...y'know, beat the teams they should've. Tell me which other teams did that this year - besides Hawaii, of course. ASU has two major weaknesses, one schedule-based and the other gameplay-based: they don't have any outstanding wins and they have a tendency to sleep through the first quarter. It's not the best situation and the two items are probably related. Maybe if they show up, they have a win over Oregon and we're not having this discussion this early. But no, they get to travel only a short distance and hope that Texas is having a game hangover.

Rudy Carpenter serves as the team leader, averaging just over 250 yards per game with a 23/8 ratio. He’s been consistent all year. Keegan Herring picked up the slack once Ryan Torain was lost for the season, averaging 82.8 yards per game (including getting completely stuffed by USC). The receiving corps is led by Chris McGaha, who’s pulling down a little over 4 catches a game for a smidge over 60 yards, but has yet to see the end zone. (Michael Jones is the leading TD receiver on the team with 8.)

On defense, the Sun Devils sport a pretty solid D, allowing opposing rushers to 3.47 yards a carry (and just over 100 yards a game) and have an even TD/INT ratio (17 each). Not surprisingly, they have a +7 turnover margin on the year and are the resident ball hogs of the Pac-10, clocking in at nearly 34 minutes a game – 2nd in the nation behind Wisconsin.

Keys to Victory:
1: Exploit the corner matchups. Texas has had issues giving up yardage through the air, and while McGaha and Jones aren’t world-beaters, they’re still good enough to get separation. It may fall to Rudy Burgess to force mismatches as the third receiver in order to really exploit Texas’ vulnerable secondary.

2: Average TOP. It’s so nice when a team already is averaging about 8 minutes more with the ball per game than their opponents; I don’t even need to tell them to do anything they’re not already doing. Just do what you already do better than almost everyone in the country and you’ll be okay.

3: Take advantage of McCoy. While Colt McCoy has done a great job this season given what’s happened to his WR corps, he’s only posted a 21/18 ratio, meaning the Arizona St. secondary should be able to get a couple of picks. Any team with a half-decent defense picked McCoy off at least once this year, and he had a couple of abysmal games against Kansas St. and Oklahoma St.

4: 100 yards on the ground. Texas’ rush D is pretty good, but the best rush defenses have shut down the ASU ground game so far this year (both USC and Oregon State obliterated them). Texas only allows about 100 yards a game, so even getting to their average would be a huge plus.

Texas (by Coach Lawrence)

In each of the last 6 seasons, the Texas Longhorns have finished with double-digit victories, and over that span have posted a 5-1 bowl record. Amazingly, five of those bowl games have been decided by 8 points or less – whether the opponent is a lowly 6-6 Iowa team or a 12-0 “best of all-time” USC team. Considering that the lone “comfortable” game was a 15 point victory over not-yet-good LSU in the 2003 Cotton Bowl, it’s likely that this game will be a close and entertaining contest. A victory would give Texas 10 wins for this season and improve that recent bowl record to 6-1.

Texas started the 2007 season with a series of lackluster victories over Arkansas State, TCU, and UCF. Following an embarrassing loss to Kansas State, Texas lost to Oklahoma despite a pretty admirable performance all-around. At 4-2, the season’s outlook appeared bleak, but the Horns caught fire and rolled to a 9-2 record including huge comebacks against Nebraska by turning a 17-3 3rd-quarter deficit into a 28-17 lead and more impressively a comeback from 35-14 against Oklahoma State by winning the 4th quarter 24-0. After a dominant offensive performance against Texas Tech, a 10-2 finish and remote BCS hopes seemed likely, until the Longhorns suffered a major upset at Texas A&M.

Defensively, Texas failed to improve upon a relatively poor 2006. The rush defense has held its own, yielding essentially 3 ypc and 100 ypg overall. However, the passing defense continues to allow 275 ypg and a QB rating just under 130. The big play continues to be the Horns’ Achilles heel, giving up 23 plays of 25+ yards on the season and allowing preposterous QB efficiency ratings in the 1st and 4th quarters as well as 3rd and medium situations.

Offensively, Texas has been devastated by injuries to the offensive line and wide receivers. Limas Sweed has missed half the season to injury, and Billy Pittman has missed a handful of games and been limited in several that he has played in. Jermichael Finley has stepped up to become one of the conference’s top tight three or four ends – and when your conference includes Missouri, that basically means he’s top 10 nationally as well. However, inconsistent WR rosters plus constant shuffling of the offensive line, along with plain ol bad decision-making have turned this into a huge dropoff year for Colt McCoy, whose QB rating fell from 161.1 to 140.3 and TD:INT fell from 29:7 to 21:18 since last season. On the positive side, the Longhorn ground attack returned to elite status, averaging 199.8 ypg as Jamaal Charles personally averages 121.5.

Keys to Victory:

1. Heavy pressure by the defense. ASU is a ball control team (yes, you read that correctly) who has controlled the clock and avoided the unpredictable shootouts of old by running 43 times per game, despite averaging just 3.37 ypc! Texas needs to push that already average number down closer to the 2.9-3.0 range, forcing ASU into obvious passing situations and forcing Rudy Carpenter to beat them with quick thinking when the ball is clearly in his hands.

2. Dedication to Jamaal Charles. Last season, the Longhorns successfully ran an offense led by a freshman QB without relying too heavily on their star senior and junior runningbacks. This year it’s Jamaal’s offense, and he’s got to get it going to take the pressure off of a struggling Colt McCoy. The spread package can stay, but they need more option runs and delayed handoffs to keep ASU’s pressure from bearing down on McCoy and to keep second and third downs as manageable situations.

3. Play big. Despite all their speed at the WR position, Texas seems more effective the greater a role TE Jermichael Finley (basically requires double-team to cover) and RBs Vontrell McGee and Chris Ogbonnaya play. Finley was huge in the Oklahoma game which, despite a loss, was one of UT’s better performances. Of course Charles and McGee carried for 23 and 24 rushes apiece in the offense’s best outing, against Texas Tech.

4. Play smart. Texas has been killed by giving up big plays on defense and throwing dumb interceptions on offense. Stay at home in the secondary. Don’t force a pass that isn’t there. UT is probably more talented than ASU and definitely has more experience in these kind of big games. Let that win the game for you; don’t give up that advantage by giving ASU easy points and momentum.