The Music City Bowl: Shitbox of the South

So apparently this is the 11th Motor City Bowl in history. Didn't expect that; I also didn't expect that the SEC is a robust 3-6 in this bowl - although that began with a wonderful 0-5 streak. Presumably they rotated the teams around so the mismatches weren't as flagrant after that. Don't quote me on it, though.

Vanderbilt

Vandy might be the team that backed into a bowl the hardest - which is pretty impressive, you have to admit. After opening the season 5-0, Vandy suddenly realized they're ...well, commies, and promptly gave back everything they had taken from their opponents to the tune of 1-6 over their last 7 games. Like true Commies, they ended the season exactly how they started, with nothing beyond what they entered with - .500. Sure, like a totalitarian regime they took as much as they could at first, but they were forced to give it back by the proletariat.

Let's just skip ahead a bit - Vandy's offense sucks balls. Like the Motherland against anyone who wasn't part of the USSR, the ground game was ineffective against its more stalwart opponents, and the Russian - er, Vanderbilt - air attack is not the stuff legends are made of. Matter of fact, it doesn't exist and you can find no evidence of it. Any evidence is merely a hoax perpetrated against the Great Mother Russia. The ground game, like any true Communist regime, is not a one-man show - it's a two-man show.

The defense is solid and impregnable. Any mention of Vandy allowing nearly 150 yards on the ground per game is merely propaganda designed to blaspheme the Gold Star attack. The stories about the passing defense, its 13/18 TD/INT ratio, and less than 175 yards allowed through the air are all true, though. Supreme Commander D.J. Moore leads the Aerial Assault Squad, and will repel all invaders of its airspace. Mother Nashville will not tolerate failure, and your footballs will be crushed like flabby grapes under the heel of this defensive juggernaut.

The Commies' plan of attack is to allow the pitiful invaders from Boston College to enter their homeland, burning all in their wake. Once the true winter hits, the Eagles will be unable to handle the Vanderbilt attack. Failure is merely a matter of time, not of choice.

Wait, the game's in Tennessee? Shit.

Boston College

And once again, we return to talking about the fucking ACC. This version of an ACC team at least played in the conference championship game, flailing and failing spectacularly in a 30-12 loss (yes, that includes a safety, the official scoring method of ACC games this season). When they weren't getting shut down by Virgina Tech in return games ...again.... they went 9-3. Before you ask, their inexplicable loss was to Clemson, although they get partial credit for losing to a Georgia Tech team that hadn't figured out what the triple option was yet.

Their offense somehow scored 330 points on the season (30 due to INTs, 6 from a fumble return, 12 from punt returns, so 282 on offense - that makes more sense), which was good enough for average in the conference. Their passing game can be nicely construed as "terrible", better in-conference than Sean Glennon and the "fuck the forward pass" game at GT. The running game is better by comparison, but that's also damning with praise so faint it's barely even there.

Like every other damn ACC team, Boston College plays defense and that's about it. Witness the 6(!) defensive touchdowns they've scored on the year, and tremble before their stout rushing defense that's currently 7th in the country. Bottom line, this team basically plays defense and punts.

What'll they have to do to win? Play defense and punt, and force the Commies to return to neutral on their take-aways (currently +6 on the season; no, they probably don't need to force that many turnovers, but it'd be fun if they did).

The Champs Sports Bowl: Blatant Commercialism, but Not As Bad as the PapaJohn's.com Bowl

Would you believe that according to the College Football Data Warehouse, the Champs Sports Bowl is a major bowl? Yeah, I'm surprised too, but I guess "Bowls People Watch To Escape Their In-Laws" is kind of an unwieldy designation. This game is best known for complete and total blowouts - Texas Tech 55-15 over Clemson in '02, NC State 56-26 over Kansas in '03, and GT 55-16 over Syracuse in '04 (they made a bowl?). Now we have a sub-.500 conference team facing a BCS contender. Who's ready for a close game? (Wait a while. Not happening here.)

Boston College (by Coach Lawrence)

The Boston College Eagles took advantage of one of the NCAA’s easiest first halves of a schedule to jump out to a quick 7-0 start and #2 national ranking. Their first living, breathing opponent, Virginia Tech, led the Eagles 10-0 late in the 4th quarter before a prevent defense, onside kick recovery, and TD pass on 3rd and 20 allowed BC to escape with a road victory over an eventual top 10 team. However, the following week their luck ran out against Florida State, as Matt Ryan threw three interceptions including a late game pick six to assure the end of their run at a perfect season. A loss to Maryland that was close in final score only added insult, and another multiple-interception game, to injury for the Eagles. After escaping Clemson with a 4th quarter victory and sending the lifeless Miami Hurricanes to an early end to their season, BC faced Va Tech in a rematch game for the ACC title. It was yet another multiple-interception performance from Ryan which nearly send the Va Tech Hokies to the national championship game.

Boston College features a defense which has shaved 1.3 ypc off of their allowed rushing average compared to 2006, moving their per-game average allowed from 109 to 68 ypg. What this has done is forced opposing teams to get into aerial battles with Matt Ryan, BC’s quarterback who was a Heisman hopeful before a string of turnover-prone games led to a 2-3 finish for the team. Unfortunately, while the rushing defense is vastly improved, everything else is about the same as last year. Rushing ypg offense is almost identical, and pass defense is marginally worse. The passing ypg is up almost 90 ypg, but QB rating changed by only +2, yards/attempt +0.1, and the TD:INT has doubled on both sides (same ratio). The Eagles literally live and die by Matt Ryan’s arm. In their 7-0 start, Ryan had a rating probably around 140 and a 17:5 TD:INT ratio. In their final six games, that fell to something below 120 and 11:12... in the three losses, a similar rating with 5:7.

Keys To Victory:
1. There really is just one key to victory for BC. Don’t throw interceptions. In 10 wins, you’d see Matt Ryan throw 2.3 TD and 1.1 INT, on average. In 3 losses, you’d see 1.7 TD and 2.3 INT on average. Throwing a pick isn’t a big deal, but when you kill TWO drives and give up twice the risk of a defensive score (offhand, both FSU and VT scored defensive touchdowns in their wins over BC) that’s when you start asking for trouble.

2. Stuff MSU’s rushing game. This has been the standard MO for the BC defense. However, Sparty runs for just over 200 ypg, so it’ll be a battle of wills. Bring the extra defender if needed... I’ll take Matt Ryan over Brian Hoyer if it comes to that.

3. DON’T THROW INTERCEPTIONS. Really, Matt, stop doing that. It’s bad for you.

Michigan State (by Coach Pendley)

Fun fact: Michigan State went 4-3 against bowl-playing teams this season. Of course, if you subscribe to the tenet that teams at .500 are bowl-eligible, the Spartans went 4-5. Another fun fact: Michigan State is one of four Big 10 teams to finish the season at 3-5 in conference, and one of three teams to finish at 7-5, 3-5. What's all that mean? It's that they don't really do anything well, although they at least took care of business against bad teams. And that win against Notre Dame is going to look really good in a few years.

MSU sports a two-headed rushing attack: Javon Ringer gets all the yards (1346) and Jehou Caulcrick gets all the credit (21 TDs). Devin Thomas is the only Big 10 WR to average over 100 yards receiving a game. The defense isn't half-bad, but where the Spartans really fall into trouble is in special teams - subpar punting and a 65% FG rate mean they can't afford to turn this game into a field position battle.

Keys to Victory:
1: Run the @#&$ out of it. Ask Virginia Tech what happens when you give the ball to Matt Ryan late in a close game. Ringer and Caulcrick are an incredibly potent 1-2 rushing combo, and they're going to have to be effective against the BC front 7. Of course, BC's front seven have been beasts all year, but the last thing you want to do is let them pin their ears back and start pass rushing.

2: Throw out the scout team. There's no way in hell that Michigan State has faced any QB who's as good as Matt Ryan (with the possible, but not likely, exemption of Curtis Painter). As rough as it is to say, the Spartans aren't going to be able to do anything beyond marginalize Ryan at best, so don't go nuts trying to stop him.

3: Limit the picks. Thomas should get his yards, but the BC secondary are ball hawks. Don't make it flagrantly obvious the ball is going to Thomas when Brian Hoyer drops back to pass and that'll help. What'll also help is MSU's secondary picking off a couple of Ryan's passes.