College football's opening kickoff is only two weeks away! Between internet connection problems and personal travel, I've been absent from this blog for nearly a month - my apologies.
So, in at the last minute, here are some updates on how the summer is progressing in the Big 12. Again due to the aforementioned issues, this will largely focus on the "interesting" (read: likely bowl and particularly BCS) teams, although I've thrown A&M in for good measure. Let's get started with the most exciting team of all...
Baylor:
QB:
Robert Griffin III, sometimes known as "Cream," was quoted by Jason King as saying "We can go 12-0 and end up in the national championship, or we could win fewer games than that." I think this sums it all up for the 2009 Baylor Bears. In 2009 they will, at best, go unbeaten and win the BCS. I don't think the Super Bowl is realistic until Griffin's senior year, and even then he will need some help by the defense if they're going up against the Patriots.
Non-QB:
On any given play there will be 10, possibly 11, guys on the field at a time who are not Robert Griffin. This is largely inconsequential.
Kansas:
OL:
While the QB and WR positions at Kansas are very strong, the OL is a spot of possible regression that could hold this offense back. Tanner Hawkinson will be the only freshman starter, but he is taking over the important LT position. This has the potential to be an issue against some of the better defensive fronts in the conference, especially as Kansas drew both Oklahoma and Texas from the South. A pair of juniors are expected to start as the new guards (RG Sal Capra, LG Carl Wilson) with Capra drawing some good reviews on Kansas blogs.
I remain skeptical that Kansas is the kind of program that can reload both guards and the LT in a single season.
LB:
For two seasons, Kansas' defense has been quite obviously led by their linebacking corps, which makes it a big deal when all three starters graduate. Justin Springer has locked up a starting spot but hasn't been playing full-time due to minor injury. Mangino is on video saying freshman Huldon Tharp will probably be a starter. The third starting spot is unclear. However, there will be a third starting spot -- that is, Mark Mangino has dispelled rumors that Kansas was switching their base defense to the nickel. The Jayhawks will continue to operate from the 4-3.
Oklahoma:
WR:
The word out of Norman is Broyles, Broyles, Broyles. He has made a case for the clear #1 WR target at Oklahoma, and in fact has wound up on the Biletnikoff Award watch list, of course this means Bradford's second option after super-TE Jermaine Gresham. Juco transfer Cameron Kenney has emerged to become the "third" receiving target, but his performance in practice has rumors going that he will in fact be the #2 WR.
Without nearly as much noise out of Adron Tennell, I continue to speculate that Oklahoma will shift their offensive philosophy to take greater advantage of their RB duo, Demarco Murray and Chris Brown.
OL:
With four starters to replace, this is the biggest question mark on the Oklahoma offense, coming off a record-setting 2008 season. Trent Williams was known to be the best player on the OL and takes over the all-important LT position. However, Stephen Good has been equally impressive and shows the ability to play any interior position. His slated role is RG, but Oklahoma could use him in some situations to overpower the left side, or he could be used as a center depending on Ben Habern's health situation.
DL:
Oklahoma is known to have a strong front four, perhaps the strongest in the Big 12. At the end positions this is a veritable embarrassment of riches. Auston English and Jeremy Beal are both returning starters who realistically have locked in their spots, but sophomore Frank Alexander and redshirted freshman R.J. Washington are expected to get heavy playing time. This ability to rotate in fresh legs with minimal loss in pass-rush productivity could set them apart in a pass-oriented conference.
Oklahoma State:
WR/TE:
With Brandon Pettigrew leaving, Oklahoma State had no legitimate heir as second receiving threat going into 2009! Now it seems that Justin Blackmon has all but wrapped up the #2 WR spot - lacking Dez Bryant's size (weight) and speed, Blackmon is nonetheless a fast WR and should benefit from coverages being shifted toward the other side of the field.
TE remains a battle unlikely to have a clear winner by week 1, but Jamal Mosley was reported by Rivals to have had the best offseason catching the ball. Considering the lack of depth at WR, a TE with good hands may work himself into more and more playing time if that becomes an issue for the offense.
Texas:
WR/TE:
News update: In my conference TE preview earlier this summer, I pegged Blaine Irby as the #2 fantasy tight end in the conference. Since then, Texas has reported that the injury Irby sustained in the opening month of the 2008 season will keep him out of 2009 as well. It gets worse. Highly touted freshman D.J. Grant will require knee surgery, Josh Marshall has been forced out of football due to a lingering injury, and now Ian Harris is out for 2009 with a neck injury.
TE Greg Smith caught just two passes in 2008, and freshman Barrett Matthews may end up winning that spot. But what I think will end up happening is that Texas will use a lot of 4-5 WR sets and abandoning the TE as a receiving position, as they did in 2008. This is unfortunate as Irby had some high potential, but ultimately Texas is extremely deep at the WR position.
Moving on to that - reports seem to be leaning towards Malcolm Williams developing into the #2 WR for the Horns, with James Kirkendoll the #3 target. I'll admit I was hoping to hear more of John Chiles' name, but with the TE situation he may find some playing time regardless. Williams and Kirkendoll have proven themselves capable receivers and should step up to fill the void left by Quan Cosby.
OL:
David Snow was originally listed as a center but has worked out as a guard and the coaches have loved him. I don't know whether he will take Michael Huey's spot (leaning towards no) for the lone newcomer to the Texas starting line, or if he will simply be used in rotation, but either way it's more good news for the group projected to be best in the conference.
CB:
I have seen conflicting reports on whether Deon Beasley or Aaron Williams will be starting at corner along with Chykie Brown. I find Beasley more believable - but, the upside here is that Williams (at least at some point) was in contention. He's 6'1 and might be a better matchup against bigger WR's, and gives the Horns a strong nickel package that could be used against Texas Tech. Two seasons ago, the secondary was considered Texas' weak point. Nice that this unit has rebounded.
Texas A&M:
QB:
In a result that should surprise no one, Jerrod Johnson has retained the starting QB position.
WR:
Ryan Tannehill was my #11 receiver pick for the Big 12, on the condition that Johnson was likely to beat him out for the starting QB spot. However, Sherman has decided that the team's backup QB situation is too weak for Tannehill to go back to WR, where he got banged up a bit last season. Who does that leave to throw the ball to? Well, there's a solid TE in Jamie McCoy, and Jeff Fuller at the #1 WR spot.
Perhaps, though, A&M is going to avoid the unnecessary risk of turnover and just keep the ball on the ground punt on 1st down.
Texas Tech:
WR:
There's still no real consensus on this, which is about what I expected given the offense. Detron Lewis is getting the most attention by sources like Rivals, but Edward Britton came on strong in the second half of the season and might have a better build as a possession receiver.
Tramain Swindall has the second-most catches of any WR returning, and of course will have one of the four starting spots locked up. There's not a clear #4 at this point.
Friday, August 21
Big 12 Position Battles & Updates
Friday, June 26
Big 12 WR/TE Preview
In 2008, the Big 12 was known for its quarterbacks, but the wide receiver/tight end crop was equally deep. Some stars such as Michael Crabtree and Chase Coffman are gone, but the conference will still be strong at these positions in 2009.
Wide Receivers
1. Dez Bryant, OSU
In addition to hauling in 1480 yards and 19 TDs in 2008, Bryant chipped in as a punt returner, recording 305 yds ret and 2 TDs. He's on the outskirts of most Heisman lists, and should be your #1 WR pick from the Big 12.
2. Jordan Shipley, Texas
After a few seasons hampered by injury, Shipley finally had a chance to show Texas fans what they had heard since his recruitment - this guy is an elite college receiver. He produced nearly identical stats as Quan Cosby, but with Cosby gone in 2009 Shipley could easily catch 100 passes and further improve his yardage total. He also scored special teams touchdowns against Oklahoma and Texas Tech.
3. Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas
Briscoe had a great 2008 season, hauling in the next-most yards in the conference after Dez Bryant. I don't know if he will duplicate those numbers - that was a jump of nearly 1000 yards compared to 2007; I'd almost think something's gotta give. But regardless, he's easily in the preseason top 3 for the conference.
4. Detron Lewis, Texas Tech
It'd be criminal not to put a Tech receiver in the top five. Of TTU's three top receivers from 2008, Lewis is the only one returning. He's likely to be the #1 target in 2009, and therefore top 1000 yards.
5. Kerry Meier, Kansas
Meier completed the transition from backup QB beautifully, hauling in 1045 yards and 8 TDs in 2008. I don't see any real reason for improvement nor decline in 2009, short of problems with the new offensive line.
6. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma
Putting up just 687 yards in 2008, Broyles could be Sam Bradford's top outside target (ie, the guy he looks at after Gresham) in 2009 as he is the only one of OU's top four WRs returning.
7. Edward Britton, Texas Tech
Britton had three big games down the stretch - against Texas, Kansas, and Mississippi. For the last two seasons he's produced decent stats while Crabtree shined, now's his turn to join the first line of the Air Raid.
8. Kendall Wright, Baylor
If Griffin is going to have a huge season shredding defenses, and you'd better believe he is, he's going to need someone to throw to. Kendall Wright was his #1 target in 2009 -- bonus that (unlike Gettis), he hauled in some TDs as well.
9. Danario Alexander, Missouri
Alexander has produced minimally at Missouri thus far, but should easily earn one of the top two spots on the team. His size makes him more difficult to cover than Perry, which could affect who the pro-style recruit at QB targets first.
10. Jared Perry, Missouri
Perry's snagged 91 passes in his career at Mizzou despite being pretty far down on the depth chart. In 2009, he could be the primary receiver.
11. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
Tannehill pulled in 844 yds and 5 TDs on a struggling Aggie offense in 2008. He's competing for the starting QB position in 2009, but in the likely event that Jerrod Johnson wins out, Tannehill should put up similar numbers.
Other Receivers (in no particular order):
John Chiles, Texas - Athlete converting from QB to WR. We'll see how his hands hold up against game-level defenses, but his open-field abilities are already proven. I consider this a high risk-high reward pick.
Brandon Collins, Texas - Hauled in 13 passes in the final two games, and had a 6 rec outing against Missouri. No more than 2 rec in any other game, however, and right now it's looking like he's 4th on the depth chart.
Darius Darks, Iowa State - Darks had a strong season as a freshman, finishing second in receiving yards on the Cyclones. The top receiver (RJ Sumrall) graduated, so Darks has a good chance to shine here.
Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M - 630 rec, 9 TD in 2008. If you're not opposed to drafting Aggies on offense (in which case, why aren't you?) then you might look for him to duplicate this.
James Kirkendoll, Texas - Had 12 rec in his final three games (DNP against A&M), after recording just 9 in the first nine. The departure of Cosby will mean McCoy is looking his way far more often.
Tramain Swindall, Texas Tech - Hey! Texas Tech WR! Alright!
Adron Tennell, Oklahoma - Tennell was a big-time recruit but has contributed minimally in three seasons. He will likely be the #2 receiver on the depth chart in 2009.
Malcolm Williams, Texas - Nearly a third of his receiving yards in 2008 came on an awesome 91-yard bomb against Texas Tech, where he basically ran past the cornerback, then ran past the safety. I'm excited to see this speedster on the field more in 2009.
Notes:
* Four Texas receivers in the "Other Receivers" list is more indicative of the status of Texas' depth chart than anything else. Shipley is the sure #1 receiver. Whoever solidifies the position of #2, and perhaps #3, will have a good season, but there's no reason to believe Texas will produce five receivers of any meaningful fantasy value.
* Colorado, Kansas State, and Texas A&M should have poor passing offenses in 2009, and I would avoid WRs from their teams. Nebraska is more of a question mark - their projected starters are Menelik Holt and Niles Paul, but as both are first-year starters with little experience, also working with a QB who has thrown just a handful of passes in his college career, I cannot recommend either one unless you believe Nebraska's offense will be better than expected.
Tight Ends
1. Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
Gresham is essentially a gigantic wide receiver. A year ago, he put 950 yards and 14 TDs in the stat books. The departure of most of OU's receiving corps may hurt Bradford's stats, but it'll make sure that that many more passes are coming Gresham's way. He's good for 1000, a rare luxury in a TE.
2. Blaine Irby, Texas
I'm looking down the list of B12 TEs, and I cannot justify putting many of these other names second -- there is simply no player to compete with Gresham nor replace Coffman. Irby caught 10 passes for 95yd 2TD in 2008 despite playing just three games (injury), stats that would project out well over a full season. Texas threw the ball a lot to TEs in 2004-07, and with Cosby's absence felt by the offense I expect McCoy to look to the big guy over the middle once again.
3. Mike McNeill, Nebraska
McNeill just set a Nebraska school record for receiving yards by a tight end (442). With such talent, we could see the system modified to get him the ball a bit more often in 2009, as the Huskers are breaking in several new starting WRs.
4. Jamie McCoy, Texas A&M
McCoy had 500 rec yards in 2008 and should again be the #3 target of this passing game in 2009. Bonus that A&M QBs typically have a good enough arm to dump off to the TE/RB.
5. Jeron Mastrud, Kansas State
Mastrud has seen steady improvement by about 100 yards a season for his three years at KSU. The effect that Snyder's return will have on the system remains unknown, but Mastrud is one of the productive TEs returning to the conference.
6. Justin Akers, Baylor
Akers is a converted WR playing TE, which is always good for fantasy stats. Two years ago, he caught passes for 480 yards despite being on a pre-Cream Baylor offense. With Griffin requiring all 11 defenders to contain, Akers could have another solid season.
Big 12 RB Preview
We take things for granted in Big 12 country, but not every team in America has a 4000+ yard passer, and 65% completions isn't universally considered an off week. In many of these other conferences, they have such a lack of confidence in the quarterback's ability to find even one of his five receivers open, that they just give the ball to someone standing behind the line of scrimmage, and say "have at it!" Most fantasy leagues reflect this passing deficiency, and have several starting spots reserved for such "rushing-backs."
1. Kendall Hunter, OSU
Hunter is the #1 back on the #1 rushing offense in the Big 12. In 2008, he was the only back in the conference to average over 100 ypg on the ground (1555 yds, 16 TD rush) and with most of the key ingredients returning in 2009, he should minimally duplicate those numbers. I'd look for him to break 1700, as the loss of TE Brandon Pettigrew may force the offense to shift plays over to the ground game.
2. DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma
DeMarco Murry was on pace to lead the Sooners in rushing in 2008, were it not for missing the Big 12 Championship Game and the BCS Championship game, a player that was sorely missed in a close setback against the Florida Gators. While the two may produce similar ground totals, Murray caught passes for 395 yards and 4 TDs to Brown's 109 yards and 1 TD - his use as an outlet receiver make him the better fantasy pick.
3. Chris Brown, Oklahoma
Brown led the Sooners in rushing and in TDs scored in 2008. I only have him behind Murray as that is his spot on the depth chart - if Murray stays healthy, I expect slightly better numbers from him. However, Brown is the preferred back in goalline situations. Might be more valuable in leagues awarding bonus points for tasteless Rihanna jokes.
4. Roy Helu, Nebraska
Helu put up 803 yards despite starting 2008 in Marlon Lucky's shadow. Now Lucky's gone, and new QB Zac Lee has minimal experience. The Huskers should be looking to lean on their back with some experience while the offense gels.
5. Jay Finley, Baylor
People who doubt my bold calls for a Bears Breakout in 2009 may shy away from this one, at least for one or two more picks in the conference. But let's look at the facts: Finley rushed for just 207 yards and 3.8 ypc in 2007 before Hope arrived on campus, then exploded for 865 (5.8) and 7 TDs in 2008. He also caught a pair of sweet tosses to the end zone from The Creamster. Folks, Baylor is the storm nobody sees coming in 2009, not only are they going to finish with a winning record but they will produce a pair of 1000 yard rushers. By technicality, they cannot both be Griffin, so this in the next logical choice.
6. Jake Sharp, Kansas
Sharp quietly ran for 860 and 12 in 2008, and should be good for the same this season. If you have your doubts about The Epic Rise of the Bears, draft Sharp 5th.
7. Keith Toston, OSU
Toston largely played mop-up duty in 2008, gaining 686 yards on 6.7 ypc. Towards the end of the season, his ratio of carries relative to Hunter's were increasing, and I expect OSU to focus their offense even more around the ground attack in 2009. Toston might not reach 1000, but he should top 800.
8. Derrick Washington, Missouri
Washington was a 1000-yard rusher in 2008, but he's all that returns of the once-mighty Tigers' offense. He'll get his carries, as Missouri tries to protect sophomore Blaine Gabbert, who's moving up from third on the depth chart to starting QB. But defenses won't be scrambling like mad to cover Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman with Chase Daniel's precision passing, so expect the fronts to be a lot sturdier.
9. Darrell Scott, Colorado
Scott had a limited 2008 due to injury problems, and carried just 87 times. Nonetheless, the former #1 RB recruit is expected to be the starter in 2009 for an offense that can't do much other than run the ball.
10. Baron Batch, Texas Tech
Texas Tech had their best rushing year in... forever?... in 2008. Really, the air attack was so good, even for Tech's lofty standards, that teams had to sacrifice run support to contain Harrell's barrage. With a new QB, Michael Crabtree taking off for the NFL, and three new starters on the OL, look for Tech's ground game to falter a bit.
11. Alexander Robinson, Iowa State
Robinson was a 700 yard rusher in 2008, and with Arnaud returning at QB the offense will probably put up about the same numbers.
12. Vondrell McGee, Texas
I feel compelled to mention again that the Big 12 is not a running conference. McGee gained 376 yards in 2008, sharing the workload with now departed Chris Ogbonnaya. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, while McGee's carries should improve, the Texas offense will still be centered around Colt McCoy, and jumbo back Cody Johnson will still be the short yardage specialist. McGee may be looking at 500-700 yards rushing this season, but more would require a fundamental change to the offense like like Greg Davis deciding to limit McCoy's rushing attempts.
13. Cody Johnson, Texas
Johnson was one of four Texas RBs to gain between 250 and 400 yards in 2008, a sign of the offensive philosophy. (giving the ball to the RB is what we do when we not only want to mix things up by not passing, but want to trick the defense even more by not having McCoy run it) Johnson shouldn't put up big yards -- I think Foswhitt Whittaker is going to take over half of Ogbonnaya's carries, and the rest by McGee - but this is the goalline back, and he punched the ball in 12 times last season. In the scheme of things, Johnson scored 12 rush TD, McCoy 11, and all other Texas RBs combined for 10.
15. Rodney Stewart, Colorado
Stewart actually ran for 622 yards in 2008, although he was a non-factor in the non-existent passing game. However, the Buffs' leading back ran for just two TDs. That's because Colorado doesn't score touchdowns - they punt. The Buffs offense is in such disarray, this rushing total may well decrease, and in any case the team certainly isn't putting points on the board.
Things to note:
* Colorado has talent at the RB position and a creative coach who can design plays to open up the field... but star receiver Josh Smith is transferring, and with him go the Buffs' ability to stretch the field.
* Kansas State was a devastating option team under Bill Snyder up until his retirement. The trademark slate of FCS schools is back on the schedule; if you're feeling risky, gamble that the ground stats are back with it.
Wednesday, June 17
Fantasy Football - Big 12 QB Preview
The Big 12 was the conference of quarterbacks in 2008, combining talent at the position behind beefy offensive lines in a conference where some phenom receivers outclassed the skill in the secondary. To recap, Sam Bradford threw for 50 TDs and won the Heisman, Colt McCoy set an NCAA completion % record at 77%, Graham Harrell threw for over 5,000 yards, and Chase Daniel topped 4,500 - for the first few weeks having thrown more TDs than incompletions. The conference was documented as having the best passing season for a conference in the BCS era, beating out the 2002 Pac 10.
2008 Statistics, with returning players bolded:
Graham Harrell: 442/626, 71%, 5111 yds, 45 TD, 9 INT, -15 yds rush, 6 TD
Sam Bradford: 328/483, 68%, 4720 yds, 50 TD, 8 INT, 47 yds rush, 5 TD
Colt McCoy: 332/433, 77%, 3859 yds, 34 TD, 8 INT, 561 yds rush, 11 TD
Chase Daniel: 385/528, 73%, 4335 yds, 39 TD, 18 INT, 281 yds rush, 1 TD
Todd Reesing: 329/495, 67%, 3888 yds, 32 TD, 13 INT, 224 yds rush, 4 TD
Zac Robinson: 204/314, 65%, 3064 yds, 25 TD, 10 INT, 562 yds rush, 8 TD
Josh Freeman: 224/382, 59%, 2945 yds, 20 TD, 8 INT, 404 yds rush, 14 TD
Robert Griffin: 160/267, 56%, 2091 yds, 15 TD, 3 INT, 843 yds rush, 13 TD
Joe Ganz: 285/420, 68%, 3568 yds, 25 TD, 11 INT, 258 yds rush, 5 TD
Austen Arnaud: 247/401, 62%, 2792 yds, 15 TD, 10 INT, 401 yds rush, 5 TD
Jerrod Johnson: 194/326, 60%, 2435 yds, 21 TD, 10 INT, 114 yds rush, 3 TD
Cody Hawkins: 183/320, 57%, 1892 yds, 17 TD, 10 INT, -23 yds rush, 3 TD
2009 will not be a duplication of those conference-wide numbers. However, there will be about a half-dozen really potent offenses in the conference, led by QBs that will be putting up strong fantasy values.
1. Colt McCoy, Texas
Sure, I'm a homer. But Texas returns every major receiver except for Quan Cosby - importantly, including Jordan Shipley (there was some concern about this after the Fiesta Bowl). Athlete/backup QB John Chiles has decided he's tired of waiting in McCoy's shadow, and converted to WR during the offseason. He will be a real playmaker in the open field assuming his hands make him a viable target. Williams and Kirkendoll became more involved in the offense later in the season and are back as well. Up front, the Horns return 4 starters on the offensive line - the lone new starter is Michael Huey, a junior right guard who was a top 10 prospect at that position. The pieces are all there - Texas will have a stronger offense in 2009 if McCoy even stays at the same level he was at in 2008.
Texas also has an embarassingly easy nonconference schedule for a title contender (ULM, Wyoming, UTEP, UCF) while Oklahoma faces BYU, Idaho State, Tulsa, and Miami FL - in all, Oklahoma has Steele's #3-toughest schedule in the country while Texas is just #40. With the easier schedule and with more starters returning, McCoy should have the better season of two great choices at QB.
2. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
I think a lot of people will argue Bradford is the #1 B12 QB pick. However, Oklahoma is returning just five starters on offense. Every player on the offensive line is new save for Trent Williams at LT. Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson are both gone, as is Quentin Chaney the #4WR. That is just shy of 2400 receiving yards between the three of them. Now, super tight end Jermaine Gresham is returning, and Adron Tennell was a big recruit who will now get the chance to step up as a senior. But I'm expecting Oklahoma to go a little more back to the running game this year as they are returning two 1000-yard rushers. A more balanced attack may be good for the Sooners, but that and the loss of so many WR/OL will probably see Bradford's numbers drop in 2009. Not that he won't be a strong pick regardless. Bradford has a monster arm and Gresham is a coverage nightmare.
3. Taylor Potts, Texas Tech
(ie, generic Tech QB)
In his final two years at Tech, Graham Harrell threw for over 5000 yards both seasons. Michael Crabtree is gone and that will be a huge, huge loss. In fact just four starters are returning on this offense, including two on the offensive line. In the two seasons before the Harrell/Crabtree duo started terrorizing defenses, Texas Tech threw for about 380 ypg. In something I'd only do for Texas Tech, I'm just going to assume that Potts can throw for at least 350 ypg, plug that in and get 4200 yards for the season. In fact, 350 is probably conservative for Leach's offense. Syyyssssstemmmm.
4. Robert Griffin, Baylor
You'll want to check out your fantasy scoring if he and Robinson are still on the board. How much rushing counts compared to passing, and possibly rush TDs vs pass TDs, could sway this one. To me, this comes down to Griffin being a sophomore (biggest season for improvement) and Baylor returning 8 offensive starters. Losing the #3WR (Thomas White) isn't a big deal, but Griffin may miss LT Jason Smith, who went second in the NFL Draft. Fortunately he is a fast, mobile QB (All-American Baylor track team, specializing in hurdles) so that will be somewhat negated. You will also note that Griffin does not turn the ball over. He only completed 56% of his passes because of drops, this guy is dead-accurate. If the receiving corps has improved at all, this should go up to 65%.
5. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State
OSU is returning seven offensive starters, but TE Brandon Pettigrew will be sorely missed. He was one of just two players to catch over 22 passes, the other being darkhorse Heisman candidate Dez Bryant. Keith Toston was kinda discovered in midseason, so OSU may run the ball a little more aggressively this year with that plus the losses to the receiving corps. Robinson's numbers could go either way, as he's more experienced and his two most talented offensive teammates are returning, which could offset some of the losses as well as the upgrade from Troy to Georgia in the nonconference schedule.
6. Todd Reesing, Kansas
Kansas returns seven offensive starters, but just two on the line and will be starting a pair of redshirt freshmen there. This will be a case of high experience at the skill positions versus low experience in protection, as even the tight end is new. I'm also concerned about the loss of three 90+ tacklers weakening the defense enough to cost this offense some time of possession, as the entire linebacker corps is being replaced and those were the defensive leaders in 2008 - a season in which KU already gave up 80 ypg more than in 2007. Reesing had 400 yards more in 2008 than 2007, perhaps due in part to Meier fully switching over from QB to WR, but at the cost of another 6 INT and 1 fewer TD. With the new line I don't see an improvement in offensive production - the question is will it even be as good?
7. Austen Arnaud, Iowa State
This is the official borderline of acceptable Big 12 QBs to draft. Iowa State is horrible, but like the Baylor situation, that doesn't rule out one QB to account for most of their offense and be a decent fantasy pick. ISU returns 9 offensive starters. Arnaud had over 3000 total yards last year and should be able to duplicate that. The Cyclones avoid both Texas and Oklahoma. I'm not really recommending Arnaud, so much as saying watch out for the train wrecks below...
8. Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M
Johnson plays for Texas A&M. TAMU is terrible. They're going to duplicate the failures of 2008, and offense is a big reason why (along with defense, God's hatred of Aggies, etc). 10 offensive starters return, but at some point that means more of the same. TAMU also faces Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State - three teams that will keep the ball away with their offenses and play solid defense.
9. Zac Lee, Nebraska
Is Zac Lee the #9 QB in the Big 12? I have no idea. I'd be shocked if he's in the top 6, and anything beyond that is largely speculation. Joe Ganz had a reasonably strong season here last year, and some of the starters return - notably, not the top two receivers or the #2 rusher.But hey, three starters on the line, including C and LT. Ehh....
10. Cody Hawkins, Colorado
Hawkins was terrible in 2008. He was decent but inconsistent in 2007. Contrary to what some magazines say, Josh Smith has left, so receivers #2-4 are all gone. Darrell Scott and Rodney Stewart return at RB, so maybe the spread option has some hope. Ehh...
11. Daniel Thomas / Whoever Starts at Kansas State
Bill Snyder has returned, and with him a nonconference schedule including two FCS schools. Brandon Banks was a 1000 yard receiver in 2008, so at least he has someone to throw to...
12. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
... as opposed to Gabbert, who will watch the Missouri offense flounder without Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, and Tommy Saunders. Chase Daniel's backup, Chase Patton, also graduated - this guy wasn't even getting clean-up time last year. On top of all that, OC Dave Christensen took the HC job at Wyoming. Missouri is going to complete the fall from a team who should have been in the BCS to mid-level ranked to complete fail, all in consecutive seasons. For what it's worth, Gabbert was actually a top 10 QB prospect, but the Tigers have just lost so much there can't not be a rebuilding year.
Wednesday, December 3
Big 12: Championship Week, BCS Scenerios
The 2008 Big 12 Championship features two teams with equal or lesser records as the Texas Longhorns, an 0-2 record against Texas with average margin of defeat 17.5 points, and a lower ranking than Texas in both the AP and Harris polls. (OU led Texas by one point in the Coaches poll) I'm not going to pretend not to be bitter about this, and I'll feel no shame in flagrantly rooting against the conference representative in a potentially image-redefining BCS Championship should Oklahoma go. With that said, let's talk about the upcoming game in Kansas City.
Realize that Oklahoma just jumped ahead of Texas in the computer polls after defeating Oklahoma State, and despite having lost to Texas. (so any gain in OU's ratings boosted the Texas ratings) Florida would get a much larger boost from beating Alabama, and additionally that's not doing anything to help Texas' ratings. Realistically, Florida will be ahead of Texas in at least three of the computer polls if they defeat Alabama. I'd bet on them being ahead in four or five.
Why? Because Texas isn't "conference champion" and the team that would be, Missouri, is clearly not one of the top two teams in the country?
Wednesday, November 26
The Numbers Behind the Big 12 South
I posted earlier about what should happen in the Big 12 South - with as much objectivity as is possible, Texas or Oklahoma should represent the division in the conference championship game and one of these two teams should represent the conference in the BCS Championship game if at least one of them finishes with just one loss. Which of those two teams is more deserving is largely a matter of personal opinion.
Now the question is what will happen?
To avoid too many possibly outcomes, I am going to assume that Texas and Texas Tech win their games this week, in which both schools are favored by more than 4 TDs.
If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State
* The 3-way tie is between Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. The tiebreaker is BCS ranking, which means it is a contest of whether Texas' lead in the computers can outweigh Oklahoma's lead on the ballots. We don't typically see huge movements at the top when all teams win unless something really wild happens (say, UF/FSU going to overtime while OU wins by 70), so the current ballot margins will likely remain about the same. Oklahoma is +.076 in the Harris over Texas and +0.275 in the ESPN/USA. This means Texas would need to be +0.351 in the computer average - ie, ahead by a cumulative 4 spots after the high and low are thrown out. What this means is that the Texas magic number is one - if Texas is on average one full ranking ahead of OU in the computer average, they go to the conference championship. Currently, Texas leads Oklahoma in four of the six computer polls.
Anderson: Texas #3, Oklahoma #4
*** Defeating #2 Texas Tech (.815) moved Oklahoma from a .768 rating to a .786. Oklahoma State is currently #14 at .706. Texas is currently rated .803. Utah is sitting at .805 and their season is over, so Texas would likely pass the Utes. I am going to predict that the Texas lead holds in Anderson, Texas +2.
Billingsley: Oklahoma #2, Texas #3.
*** Texas won't fall below #3 in one week, thanks to USC not playing UCLA just yet. Could Oklahoma hop to #1 over Alabama? It's possible, but I'd say unlikely. Oklahoma +1, maybe +2.
Colley: Texas #1, Oklahoma #5
*** Colley's allows us to plug in results. Using Texas > A&M, OU> OSU, Alabama > Auburn, Florida > FSU, we get: Texas #1, Oklahoma #3. Texas +2.
Massey: Oklahoma #1, Texas #2
*** This seems likely to hold, as Alabama is a bit far below Texas to make the jump based on beating Auburn. Oklahoma +1.
Sagarin: Texas #1, Oklahoma #4
*** Texas has a wide margin here, but #2-4 are very close. Expect Texas #1, Oklahoma #2. Texas +1.
Wolfe: Texas #2, Oklahoma #4.
*** Alabama and Texas are well ahead of the pack. Texas Tech and Oklahoma are practically tied, so expect Texas #2, Oklahoma #3. Texas +1.
This is so close. I'm going to assume Oklahoma finishes #2 in Billingsley's, above #3 Texas. Then the scores are:
Oklahoma: 4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3 = 2.5 truncated average.
Texas: 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2 = 1.5 truncated average.
This gives Texas exactly enough to stay ahead of the Sooners. Note that if the gap in Anderson is Texas +1, the gap in Billingsley is Oklahoma +2, or if Sag or Wolfe flip, that would give the Sooners the edge. While it seems like Texas needs everything to go right in order to avoid this outcome, the hidden factor is that any boost to Oklahoma's rating is going to slightly boost Texas' rating as a result of their head-to-head. (Billingsley might not do this, amazingly, but Billingsley is also not a poll where that is likely to matter as the real question is how he ranks Oklahoma relative to Alabama.)
Obviously, it still comes down to voting. Oklahoma needs to increase their lead over Texas in the ballot polls by about 14% in order to overcome this predicted computer edge for the Longhorns. This will largely be determined by how both teams perform this weekend, as well as how Florida performs against Florida State since they are the interloper.
If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma
* The Big South tiebreaker is Texas Tech's head-to-head victory over Texas. The Red Raiders are division champions.
* If Missouri defeats Texas Tech, then it's pretty clear that Texas would be the conference's highest-ranked team. Sitting at 11-1, the only teams with arguments to be included above the Longhorns would be Alabama if they lost the SEC Championship Game (12-1), USC (11-1), and Penn State (11-1). A two-loss Missouri is not getting in over Texas, mostly because of record, but also because the head-to-head result negates the conference champion argument. Realistically, this outcome sends Texas to the national championship.
If Texas Tech beats Missouri, things get more complicated.
* Currently Texas is +0.17 in the harris average (just over 4 spots, mathematically) and +0.19 in the ESPN/USA (just under 5 spots). The teams between them are USC, Penn State, and Utah. Utah and PSU cannot lose, and USC is unlikely to lose. Oklahoma would likely fall below both teams, which helps Texas Tech more than it helps Texas. The same happens after the SEC Championship (for sure if Alabama wins; if Florida wins, that might help Texas more than TTU). In any case, Texas should be a full 3 spots ahead of TTU before we start analyzing the impact that a Red Raider victory over Missouri. I think a best-case scenerio for the Red Raiders is to move up to being more-or-less tied with Texas following a win in the B12CG, leaving it all up to the computers.
* Texas is currently +2 spots over TTU in the computer average. Notably, the Longhorns are ahead by 1-5 spots in every computer poll. Playing Missouri would help the Red Raiders. Colley's Matrix allows us to plug in up to five hypothetical games. Using UT > A&M, OSU > OU, TTU > Baylor, TTU > Missouri, and either result of the SECCG, Texas ends up either 2 or 3 spots ahead of Tech depending on the SEC outcome (closer if Alabama wins). Given this result, I'm going to project that Texas Tech cannot overtake Texas in the computer polls.
* If Texas defeats Texas A&M, the Red Raiders' national title hopes are essentially over, barring some massive SEC cannibalism that results in an all-Big 12 championship game. Keep in mind that if Texas loses to A&M, Oklahoma would go to the conference championship via tiebreaker if they win over OSU. This deprives Tech of the quality opponent Missouri to boost their computer averages. Therefore, Texas Tech can only advance to the national championship game if both Texas and Oklahoma lose in the next two weeks. Even then, they still trail USC in the BCs standings. Practically speaking, their national title hopes are over.
In conclusion:
* Texas has two routes to the national championship game if they defeat A&M: getting voted into the B12CG over Oklahoma and defeating Missouri, or OU losing either this week or in the B12CG.
* Oklahoma has one route into the national championship game: winning on Saturday, getting voted into the B12CG, and defeating Missouri.
Of these, Oklahoma's path is probably the most likely to unfold should the Sooners win out. I personally think the voters will shift by enough to put OU in over Texas, largely because the voters have screwed or tried to screw Texas at every chance they get, while continuing to give the Sooners the benefit of the doubt despite multiple tankings in BCS games. Okay, so it was objective up until that last point.
Tuesday, November 25
Which Big 12 South team...
...is tops in the division? Here in college football's toughest division, we've got exactly the end-of-season mess we knew we were going to end up with. Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field way back in early October. Texas lost on the road at Texas Tech on a last-second bomb to the end zone a few weeks ago. Then Oklahoma blew out Texas Tech at home just last weekend. It's the bizarre combination of timing, margin of victory, and game location that make this debate the most interesting.
For the purpose of argument, let's assume each team ends up 11-1. This means Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State on the road, Texas beats Texas A&M at home, and Texas Tech beats Baylor at home. Obviously this does more for Oklahoma than it does for either other team, whose victories would be about equally (un-)impressive. Who deserves to play in the Big 12 Champioship game, with the opportunity to go on to play in the BCS Championship?
First looking at the head-to-head games.
Texas beat Oklahoma 45-35 on a neutral field in Dallas, about equidistant from both campuses, on Oct 11. Texas outgained OU by a paltry 3 yards, but held a 161-48 advantage in rushing, a +2 turnover margin (practically speaking +1, as Bradford's meaningless final heave into the end zone was intercepted), had a 96 yard KO return, and a +12 yard average punt length. The powerful offenses played to a standstill while Texas won the turnovers and special teams contests.
Texas Tech beat Texas 39-33 in a home game on Nov 1. In a tale of two halves, the Red Raiders led 22-6 at halftime but were outscored 27-17 in the second half. Texas Tech's two second half touchdowns came off a pick-six and of course the game's final drive. The Red Raiders outgained Texas by 205 yards and were +1 in turnovers, but the Longhorns partially negated this with a red zone defense that forced three short field goals. The Horns blocked another FG attempt in the third quarter and Jordan Shipley returned a punt for a TD, as the Horns again won the special teams battle.
Oklahoma beat Texas Tech 65-21 in a home game on Nov 22. The Sooners' 35 point outburst in the second quarter put the game almost beyond doubt at halftime. The Sooners outgained the Red raiders by 219 yards and Sam Bradford threw the ball the manly way, averaging 16 yards an attempt. OU was also +2 in turnovers.
Head-to-head games pretty much narrow it down to Texas and Oklahoma. The Texas victory was by double digits on a neutral field, and the Oklahoma victory was by such a ridiculously lopsided margin that it likely didn't matter where the game was played. On the other hand, the Texas Tech victory came down to the last drive at home, and included a dropped interception which could have ended it with about 12 seconds left. On the basis of this, Texas has the most forgivable loss while Oklahoma has the most impressive victory.
Now looking at other games.
Oklahoma has the strongest nonconference wins, both home wins over Cincinnati (9-2, this week's Big East leader) and TCU (10-2, Mountain West #2). On the down side, they have scheduled a FCS team, Chattanooga, and the only winless team from a BCS conference, Washington. Oklahoma drew Kansas, Kansas State, and Nebraska from the North. Their statement road win would be a victory over Oklahoma State.
Texas has the strongest conference wins, as they are the only team of the three to face Missouri - a 56-35 home victory that was 35-3 at halftime. Texas also drew Kansas and Colorado from the North, both on the road. The Longhorns' nonconference schedule is unimpressive as they have faced Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Arkansas, and Rice. However, all four opponents are FBS teams and anywhere from 1 to 3 will be bowl eligible.
Texas Tech has faced a complete joke of a nonconference schedule - Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and Massachussetts. UMass and EWU are FCS teams and SMU is sitting at 1-10. Within the conference, they did not face Missouri from the North, drawing Kansas State, Nebraska, and Kansas instead.
Again these games seem to simply eliminate the Red Raiders from discussion. Texas's victory over Missouri is the most impressive of the bunch, but OU's win over Cincy will look pretty good if (when) the Bearcats win out against Syracuse and Hawaii. TCU is also a reasonably impressive victory, and Oklahoma State will be a road game for the Sooners. On the other hand, scheduling FCS teams is a major detractor, and Washington is just awful. (the latter not being the Sooners' fault; then again, the results that Arkansas, TCU, and Cincy have posted weren't imminently obvious when these games were scheduled either)
Style Points?
Oklahoma has the #1 offense in the country, averaging a shade over 52 ppg. On the other hand, Texas is the only team in the bunch allowing under 20 ppg on defense.
Bottom Line.
Every argument involving all three teams seems to simply put Texas Tech as the 3rd-best team in the bunch. Their victory over Texas may have indeed been a fluke, as Texas basically didn't show up until halftime and even then TTU needed a dropped interception to win the game. But does the "fluke" loss make Texas #1? I don't know that you necessarily reward a team for pissing away an entire half of football in a known marquee matchup. At least when Oklahoma lost, they played well enough so that the only reason Texas was able to win was by elevating their own level of play in the second half. (the injury to OU's MLB also helped; then again, he's lost for the season so that can't really be written off)
However, if Texas Tech is clearly third in the group for multiple reasons, then the head-to-head matchup matters that much more. I think the tiebreaker goes to Texas, and the win over Missouri (more impressive than a win over Cincy) ices the deal.
What about Bob Stoops' argument?
Bob Stoops made the argument that ranking Texas ahead of Oklahoma on the basis of head-to-head also implies that Texas Tech should be ahead of Texas on the basis of head-to-head. Obviously, it is impossible to rank all 3 teams on that basis, as Oklahoma also beat Texas Tech.
Stoops' argument is one of retrodictive accuracy in polling, and it ignores one thing. Of the six possible ways to order these three teams, three such sets produce one ranking violation while three sets produce two ranking violations. The Occam's Razor solution is to try to have a set of rankings which relies on as few outcomes being "flukes" as is possible (and rational). Those three sets are:
1. Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas
2. Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
3. Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma
A better version of Mack Brown's argument is that, once we have decided that Texas Tech is the #3 team, which it seems like just about everyone agrees on, it makes more sense to use the order
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
than it does to use the order
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech
because the former only produces one ranking violation while the latter produces two. Or said another way, either way we are assuming that Texas is better than Texas Tech despite their head-to-head. Adding on top of that Oklahoma being better than Texas despite their head-to-head means having to ignore even more results of important games.
The great irony here is that the counterargument relies on margin of victory - only the OU-TTU result was a blowout where one team was clearly better than the other; therefore, its result is the most likely to be indicative of the teams' relative strengths, while the other two games could be considered coin flips that just happened to come out the way they did. A power rankings which include MoV could say that OU > UT > TTU, say at each time by a small amount (enough that upsets aren't too unlikely), but the two little gaps combined imply that OU >> TTU. Such a sophisticated ranking system would use both homefield advantage and margin of victory as well as how recently the games were played. HFA gives Texas an advantage, while MoV and timing give OU an advantage. The computer rankings are explicitly not allowed to include MoV in part because that helped Texas get a BCS berth over Cal in 2004. Texas may now benefit from a rule that was designed to "correct" the system for how it helped them (and thwarted the Rose Bowl/Jim Delany) several seasons ago. The non-explicit implication of this was that the BCS valued retrodictive accuracy over predictive power (also implied by the widespread outrage over the selection of 2000 FSU over Miami and 2001 Nebraska over Colorado - nevermind that choosing Miami ignores Washington, and choosing Colorado would ignore overall record). So in addition to throwing out margin of victory, the computer polls used in the BCS also stopped using HFA and most (if not all) stopped using the timing of the games.
Monday, November 24
Week 14 Big 12 Preview
It all comes down to this. One week, two teams battling for that top spot in the Big 12 South.
Can we just assume Texas Tech beats Baylor? Okay, assuming that.
Obviously, if Texas A&M upsets Texas once again, the Big 12 South goes to Oklahoma, provided they beat Oklahoma State.
What's more interesting is what happens if Oklahoma State upsets Oklahoma while Texas Tech and Texas win. Texas Tech would be the Big 12 South champions, but even winning the Big 12 title might not be enough to boost them over Texas and into the BCS Championship. Texas Tech got KILLED by Oklahoma, and the voters are going to remember that. The computers are looking at games against Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and Massachussetts which are tanking the Red Raiders' average. (except Colley's, who throws out games against FCS teams. Yay Colley's Bias-Free Rankings! and by "Bias" we mean "Logic") I'm not making arguments here; that's for another post. This is to state objectively that at this point TTU is not going to pass either Texas or OU in the BCS rankings without those teams losing.
Texas A&M @ Texas
The Longhorns can virtually guarantee themselves either a BCS bid or a spot in the Big 12 Championship game by winning here. At 4-7, the school famous for the 12th man is sitting at the 11th spot in the conference, below even Baylor and Kansas State. There is really no reason Texas should lose this game. But A&M has upset the Longhorns each of the last two years. Crazier things have happened. That said, look for Texas to really be out to make a final statement they they should be awarded the Big 12 South title, and bring a little something extra to this one.
Colorado @ Nebraska
After a poor 3-3 start to the season, Nebraska has turned it on to win 4 of their last 5 games and clinch bowl eligibility. The only real surprise in here was a close win over Kansas, who has been on the decline after an outstanding 2007. Colorado's season has gone quite the opposite way. After a blistering 3-0 start including an upset of West Virginia, the Buffs have gone 2-6 in their last eight games. The wins have been close wins over bad teams (Kansas State, Iowa State), while many losses have either been bad (A&M) or blowouts (Missouri). This is a rivalry game, so to some extent we can look past these numbers. Last season, Colorado won an exciting 65-51 game which featured (obviously) a ton of offense and trick plays. Additionally, CU is playing for bowl eligibility. But I think it comes down to the fact that Nebraska is just playing better football right now. After embarassing losses to Virginia Tech (not the score; losing to an ACC team) and Missouri, the Huskers rebounded to nearly beat Texas Tech on the road. That game was a turning point for NU, and they have since beaten everyone except a red-hot Oklahoma team. Looking good for Nebraska here.
Kansas @ Missouri
Last season, this was a more one-sided game than the 8-point margin indicates. Since losing to Texas, Missouri has been on fire while Kansas is losing to teams (USF, Nebraska) that they would have easily beaten in 2007. What looked like a great game in September is looking like a blowout in November, sorry Jayhawks.
Baylor @ Texas Tech
After a blistering 10-0 start, Texas Tech's complete dismantling at the hands of Oklahoma may have left them having to hope Texas or OU falters for them to avoid a trip to the Holiday Bowl. On the other hand, an upset here would put the Longhorns' fate in their own hands! Gogogogogo Cream!
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
If everything goes according to chalk, Oklahoma will be in a position of needing a win to set up a 3-way tie for the Big 12 South title which would come down to the voters and computers to break. I'd estimate Oklahoma has a 55-60% chance of winning that vote over Texas (TTU has no shot of winning the 3way tie). So it's fitting that this will be the last conference game of the season. It's also fitting that this is Oklahoma's first road test of the season -- their other road games being winless Washington, Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas A&M. Oklahoma has the talent advantage here, but Oklahoma State is the host and they are playing to salvage their season - a loss pretty clearly puts them at #4 in the toughest division in college football, which is not where the Cowboys envisioned themselves after beating Missouri. Be sure to tune in here, as it'll likely determine the Big 12 South champion and possibly a national championship game participant.
Tuesday, November 11
... and it happened?
From our Preseason Preview/Top 25
Auburn finishing seventh or higher would be Chris’ AND IT HAPPENED call of 2008.
Missouri ending Oklahoma’s run of Big 12 championships (and Fiesta Bowl losses) would be James’ AND IT HAPPENED call of 2008.
Obviously Auburn sucks. What I'm more interested in is that Missouri winning could not only make me right, but also at this point Missouri beating Texas Tech or Oklahoma is probably Texas' best chance to go to the national championship. Hm.
Big 12 Week 12 Preview
We're ten games into the season and things are starting to settle into place in the conference and national championship hunt.
Texas Tech is the conference's lone remaining unbeaten. After a classic game against Texas coming down to a dropped interception followed by a throw to the end zone on the next play, TTU followed up their victory by completely annihilating Oklahoma State, looking almost unstoppable on offense. The Red Raiders now have two weeks to prepare for a trip to Oklahoma which could likely determine whether Mike Leach's team can play for a national championship.
Oklahoma is the team with the next-best odds of controlling their own destiny; however, they face a difficult road to get there. OU obviously must upset TTU in two weeks, and then most hang on to defeat Oklahoma State and (likely North champion) Missouri to finish 12-1.
OU and TTU both have this week off to prepare for what should be an epic display of offensive firepower in two weeks.
Texas @ Kansas
2008 has been a surprising season for both of these teams. Texas lost the conference's leading rusher of 2007 and three of their top five receivers including a very productive tight end. They had holes on defense but a new defensive coordinator from the SEC, Will Muschamp. Colt McCoy had suffered from a sophomore slump and looked like a questionable quarterback. At 9-1, the Horns boast one of the nation's top QBs and top WR duos. Special teams have stepped up and the defense has seen a huge improvement from 2007. Kansas, on the other hand, is struggling at 6-4 after finishing 12-1 a year ago. Two defensive losses have proven too much to handle as a defense that gave up 16 ppg to be ranked #5 a season ago is now giving up 28.2. The tougher schedule has something to do with it, but the fact is that this Kansas team would not have won more than 9 or 10 games with last season's schedule. What looked like a great game at the beginning of the season will probably turn into a comfortable Texas victory.
Nebraska @ Kansas State
Nebraska has been very on and off this season, but at 6-4 they are already bowl eligible and the good news is that they are past the hurdles of Virginia Tech, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma - all losses, but at least three of those understandable. Other than Kansas, Nebraska has also racked up a bunch of unimpressive wins, so there's really not a lot to say at this point. Kansas State has dropped some games they really needed to win - such as Louisville, Colorado, and perhaps even Kansas. This game is a must-win for the Wildcats to have a shot at bowl eligibility, and frankly I don't think they will get it done. Nebraska is nothing special, but they have consistently outplayed the teams that they have a talent edge over. Expect more of the same this weekend.
Texas A&M @ Baylor
With the Bears sitting at 3-6, going on 3-7, Robert "Cream" Griffin III surely must have glanced across the sidelines and wished that he could be throwing to Jordan Shipley and Quan Crosby. Well, Cream, you can! And I will continue to write about this every chance I get, not least of all every time I write about Baylor. The Big 12 South anti-title is on the line here, folks, and A&M has to feel good about their chances of finally winning it.
Missouri @ Iowa State
Chase Daniel got back to his early season form, and with Kansas slumping his Tigers have a chance to go 10-2 and reach the Big 12 Championship game. Amazingly, their BCS hopes are still alive - odds of going to the championship game are slim, but beating Texas Tech or Oklahoma in the conference championship would give them the conference's automatic berth. Iowa State, on the other hand, is 0-6 in conference with losses to both A&M and Baylor. This will be a blowout.
Oklahoma State @ Colorado
Much of Denver is excited to see Zac Robinson return to where he played high school ball. They shouldn't be. OSU was humiliated on both sides of the ball against Texas Tech, unable to stop the juggernaut offense and surprisingly quiet against a defense that is both a little underrated but also mediocre nonetheless. The Cowboys will be playing like they have something to prove, because frankly they do. At this point, even we're not sure whether the team who beat Missouri and played a good game against Texas is the real OSU, versus the team who was run out of Lubbock a few days ago. Colorado is struggling to reach bowl eligibility, had a QB controversy, and are giving up 50 ypg more than they gain. None of this is a good sign. I don't expect this to be a very good game.
Monday, October 27
Big 12 October Rankings
Done with October, most teams have played eight games and we're starting to get a pretty good guage on everybody. It's been a great season for the Big 12, lacking for one thing though: the marquee nonconference victory. Oklahoma giving TCU their only loss may look big if the Frogs finish 11-1, but right now we're not willing to put a lot of weight on that. OU blowing out Cincinnati? Looked good until the Bearcats were run out by UConn last weekend. Missouri over Illinois? The Illini tanked and would need to beat Ohio State to restore legitimacy. Colorado over West Virginia? We'll get back to you on that one.
The writers, voters, and computers all like what's going on in the conference, and I guess that affirms it. But really, you'd have to watch the games to tell either way whether the conference is strong or if this is a case like the 2006 Big Ten. (well, that seems logical enough. I mean of course that the numbers alone could tell a story of strong offenses or weak nonconference opposition for most of the top teams) Speaking of which, I can't wait to see these teams playing in some bowl games.
But that's for December and January. Let's talk about November. The Big 12 boasts five of the top six offenses, and when you consider that #1 is Tulsa, that's gotta make people a little suspicious that something's in the Great Plains waters. On the other side of the ball, we don't see anyone in the bottom ten defenses, but there are three teams in the bottom 11-20. At #29, Texas boasts the strongest scoring defense in the country. We now direct all Pac 10 fans to turn around those jeers they've heard from seasons past.
How does this league of crazy offenses and crazy QBs line up?
1. Texas (8-0, 4-0)
Look at the four teams below them, and Texas has already beaten three of them. That's why they're sitting at the top. Colt McCoy is arguably the best quarterback in the conference... also arguably #4. (#5 if Cream had an offense) Yes it's that kind of season and that level of talent on the teams competing to deny Mack Brown his second BCS title. It doesn't matter though, Texas has been finding ways to win. Hook em.
2. Texas Tech (8-0, 4-0)
I'm iffy on this one, but damn if it doesn't set up a conference #1 vs #2 next weekend. Also damn if they aren't the only other unbeaten teams in the conference, which has to count for something. If TTU really did find their spark last weekend in Kansas, it couldn't have come at a more opportune time. Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma are their next three games.
On another note, if TTU upsets UT, I'm fully on the Red Raiders 2008 National Championship bandwagon. Who doesn't want to see Mike Leach dispense more dating advice before the biggest game in school history? Or maybe he'll just unveil the secret to nuclear fusion.
3. Oklahoma State (7-1, 3-1)
There's not a lot separating #3 and #4, and really this team could be #2. Yikes. Yeah, where did this team come from? Oklahoma State was supposed to be rebuilding after losing Savage and Bowman. (how did anyone beat them when they had this team plus those players??) Instead, the Cowboys could have the best defense in the conference, and certainly they have the best ground game. Amazing season.
4. Oklahoma (7-1, 3-1)
Don't worry, if manliness still has any value in this conference, OU will be climbing the rankings by beating the short-throwing Red Raiders and the medium-throwing Cowboys. Sam Bradford correctly recognizes that 6 yard completions are worthless and first and goal means the line had better take a holding penalty to give him room to throw. He's the toughest quarterback to stop when the offense is in the red zone, and by "in the red zone" I mean "on the field."
5. Missouri (6-2, 2-2)
Missouri was supposed to have an easy schedule they could get to the B12CG 12-0 with. And we're 95% sure they'll play in the B12CG, but the question is with how many losses? The Tigers have already dropped two games to stiff opposition as both Texas and Oklahoma State are way better than they looked in the preseason, and the Tigers still face arch rival Kansas.
6. Kansas (5-3, 2-2)
Kansas is the first team in the conference who's really had a disappointing season - you can't blame Missouri for losing to teams that are just good. KU has dropped three already and they're looking at a 7-5 season after getting run out by Tech.
7. Nebraska (5-3, 2-2)
The Red Carpets were rolled out for Virginia Tech in an embarassing loss, but everything else has been either a result of NU being way overmatched or far outclassing their opponent in completely predictable results. November is an interesting month as they face the team above them and the two teams right below them.
8. Colorado (4-4, 1-3)
This is why I refuse to care about Colorado football. Since joining the Big 12, the ONLY thing CU has done is to screw up the 2001 season and then get blown out in the Fiesta Bowl to start the Oregon quackfest. Oh, sure, they start the season 3-0 with a win over West Virginia. Where are they now? Sitting at .500.
9. Kansas State (4-4, 1-3)
Below Colorado because of a 1 point road loss, and as much as I hate it, it looks like they'd wipe up the Cream now. KSU does boast the sixth-most productive offense in the conference, and this year that's actually saying something. Then again, that could be saying that they're still scheduling teams like Bill Synder had never left. I dunno. Yay Kansas State!
10. Baylor (3-5, 1-3)
Reality hit His Creamness like a truck as Baylor couldn't get anything going in the second half against the Nebraska Red Carpet defense. Apparently, you do need those 21 other guys to contribute something in order to win, and Baylor will watching bowl games from their living rooms once again. Not implying anything, but Colt McCoy has just one year left of his eligibility, so if Griffin transfers in 2009... (*envisions the Cream-Brown dynasty unfolding... so wrong yet so right*)
11. Texas A&M (3-5, 1-3)
Gig em! Gig Iowa State! And get gigged by everyone else! You're not fooling anyone, Aggie.
12. Iowa State (2-6, 0-4)
They didn't just lose - they got KILLED on defense by Texas A&M. And they've already lost to Baylor. There's nothing to say.
Thursday, October 23
Big 12 Week 9 Games
Last week, everyone and their mom picked Texas to have a letdown game against Missouri. As they'd say in Boston, not Austin, FACK YOU HATAHS! YOU DO NAWT RECOGNIZE A GREAHT TEAM WHEN YOU SEE ONE!
This weekend it's another showdown of unbeatens in the Big 12, either Texas or Oklahoma State will emerge as the favorite to win the South division, and if Oklahoma State wins they will begin their case for inclusion in the national title picture. Don't forget Texas Tech, still an unknown thanks to their schedule, or for that matter Robert Cream Griffin III - ie, mini-Vince Young trying to lead a jr college squad to NCAA glory. Man I wish this guy had talent around him; that'd be fun to watch.
Texas Tech @ Kansas
After dozing through a soft schedule, Texas Tech has not looked particularly great against Nebraska and Texas A&M. They do, however, boast a perfect record. Kansas, on the other hand, has lost tough games against USF and Oklahoma. For completely different reasons, both teams need this win to establish legitimacy. As we'd expect, Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup in most offensive categories but gives up the edge on defense.
Oklahoma @ Kansas State
Sam Bradford's arm was throbbing with extra intensity this week at the prospect of playing such a depleted secondary. Real men average 25 yards per completion, regardless of what that does to their percentage.
Baylor @ Nebraska
His Creamness has the Baylor Bears teetering on playing a game after November - upset of Texas, Texas Tech, or Missouri pending - and while it would be a bowl we've never heard of played in a city we've never heard of, dammit Baylor will be one of the elite 98 FBS teams to get an invite! Thank god there's no playoff to kill the meaningfulness of having a bowl game for every semi-decent team plus Notre Dame.
Oklahoma State @ Texas
Texas has probably the hardest four-game stretch in college football, facing Oklahoma at a neutral site, Missouri then Oklahoma State at home, and Texas Tech on the road. Halfway through that stretch, the Horns have looked amazing and have earned the #1 ranking. Oklahoma tested Texas' ability to stop a quarterback with great deep accuracy and strong offensive and defensive lines. UT won with special teams and by controlling the ground game. Missouri tested Texas' ability to stop one of the best precision-passers in college football, the nation's top tight end, and the most versatile all-around player Jeremy Maclin. Colt McCoy turned in arguably the best performance of his career and the Horns won by not making mistakes. Oklahoma State presents a different kind of challenge. The Cowboys feature the most physical running attack in the Big 12, one of the conference's top two pure WRs, and arguably the conference's best defense. Texas's defense has turned in a few excellent performances for a half in their last two wins... it will need a full effort this Saturday as points should be harder to come by this week.
Colorado @ Missouri
Though far too late, the Missouri offense did show what it is capable of in the second half against Texas, after six mediocre quarters in their last two games. Colorado has completely dropped the ball on a promising early season.
Texas A&M @ Iowa State
And if you're curious who the worst team in the conference is, watch this. Or look at the box score Sunday morning.
Friday, October 17
Big 12 Week 8 Preview
The third week of conference play arrives, and like last week we've got some good ones lined up in the Big 12.
Texas Tech @ Texas A&M
Texas Tech stumbled to get past Nebraska, blowing a 4th quarter lead and missing a PAT in overtime, needing a late interception to win it. But A&M has been pathetic all season and there's no reason for that to change here! Harrell, Crabtree, and Woods should all be getting multiple TDs for our fantasy owners out there.
Nebraska @ Iowa State
After being embarassed by Virginia Tech, Nebraska came out ready to play against a stronger Texas Tech team, and their effort nearly led to an upset. Iowa State has been inconsistent all season, and by "inconsistent" I mean anywhere from complete disaster to only kinda crappy.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State
Can anyone say Trap Game? Oklahoma State is coming off a huge emotional road win over then-#3 Missouri, and next week they will travel to Austin to take on the now #1-ranked Longhorns. Baylor's Robert "Cream" Griffin III has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, giving his best performance last week going 21-24 for 278 yards and 2 TDs. After dropping a game to UConn, Baylor will need to beat both Nebraska and Texas A&M and then upset either OK State, Texas, Texas Tech, or Missouri in order to be bowl eligible! Talk about bad luck with your scheduling; they've already lost a game to then-#1 Oklahoma. Anyway this may be the Bears' best chance for such an upset, so keep an eye on this one.
Kansas @ Oklahoma
Last season, the Jayhawks were fortunate not to face Oklahoma and went 12-1 partially due to an overall lack of quality opponents. This season that is not the case... worse, this season's Kansas is clearly not performing at the same level that the team did a year ago. Oklahoma can't be happy about losing a game in which their QB threw 5 TD passes; expect a fired up Sooner team this Saturday. This one could get ugly.
Kansas State @ Colorado
Here are two teams who really have not played to their potential, and yet, they combine for a 7-5 record. Though it's early, in a competitive Big 12 conference, this game could have ramifications for bowl eligibility. KSU's next three opponents are Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri - they need to win the games like this one. Meanwhile CU is on a 3-game skid and it will be interesting to see how Matt Ballenger is used as Cody Hawkins has not been getting much productivity out of an offense with a solid RB corps.
Missouri @ Texas
Even as a Longhorns fan, I did not expect Texas to actually win last weekend as Oklahoma played so well to get to 5-0. (and how good does their 25-point victory over TCU look after last night?) However, Texas showed that they were the more versatile team - and they'll need that to beat a Missouri squad that is much stronger at the special teams positions than the Sooners. I would not want to face a Mizzou team all fired up from a home loss, and that is just what Texas is getting after OSU pulled off the upset! This should be a great game; hopefully the home field advantage and line play can swing it for the Horns :-)
Wednesday, October 8
Big 12 Week 7 preview
Heading into week 7 of our 2008 season, the Big 12 looks stronger than I've ever seen it look before. Six teams are ranked in the top 20, with four of the top ten, three of the top five, and in the Coaches' poll, both of the top two. Five teams are unbeaten, and we've got two games matching up teams from that bunch. If you like Big 12 football, this is the weekend to tune in!
#5 Texas vs #1 Oklahoma
The last time #1 and #5 faced off, we saw USC absolutely embarass the Ohio State Buckeyes. No, I'm not going to let that one go... you'll be hearing it from me all season, Buckeye-lovers!
This is a real quarterback duel between Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford. Both players have similar weapons at their disposal. I'd give Texas the edge at WR, Oklahoma the edge at TE and o-line, and call RB a draw or close enough. Defensively, Texas seems to have the edge at d-line, Oklahoma might have an edge in the secondary (the Texas unit has performed much better than expected, but I'm not buying it just yet), and linebacker could be a wash. Neither has been outstanding nor disappointing on special teams. Of course we know, McCoy is more of a threat than Bradford with his legs, but Bradford stretches out defenses deeper than any QB in the country.
In the end I like Bradford to get the job done. This one could go either way.
Colorado @ #16 Kansas
Here we have got two teams eager to prove themselves. After a hot start that saw them upset West Virginia, Colorado has dropped consecutive games to Florida State and Texas. The loss to FSU wasn't entirely unexpected (CU tends to look like complete ass at least 4 games a year), but embarassing nonetheless to lose to an ACC team who Wake Forest held to 3 points. Kansas lost a tough game to South Florida before inexplicably getting into a nail-biter with Iowa State.
Though KU's defense has clearly lost a step, CU's lines have been getting dominated against even average opposition. Because of this, I don't think they can generate the points to keep up with Reesing's offense.
Kansas State @ Texas A&M
In a great offensive year for the entire conference, A&M still ranks 94th in total offense. The vaunted Wrecking Crew defense just got skewered by an Oklahoma State team featuring, at best, the 5th-best offense in the conference. Meanwhile Kansas State has Josh Freeman. Honestly, that's enough for me. Cats win.
Nebraska @ #7 Texas Tech
How far Nebraska has to go to compete for conference titles was really shown in their home blowout loss to Missouri. Furthermore they were unable to beat an offensively inept Virginia Tech team at home, allowing the Hokies to score 35 points! The defensive problems are still present in Lincoln despite Bo Pelini's best efforts, and for the second straight week a prime gunslinger is going to expose those holes.
Iowa State @ Baylor
Most seasons this is a cripple fight. And who am I kidding, it's still a cripple fight. However, this is also CREAM'S conference breakout game - Iowa State cannot contain the sheer manliness that is Robert Griffin III. He'll be ejukulating all over the field and spraying hot passes on this depleted defense as Baylor looks to win their third game. Unfortunately, the loss to UConn probably cost the Bears any shot at bowl eligibility - four of their final seven opponents are ranked.
#17 Oklahoma State @ #3 Missouri
This is another great quarterback duel, only this time one QB is clearly better than the other, and his team boosts superior players at pretty much every position - maybe, perhaps save for runningback. Regardless, I think we saw what Missouri is capable of last week. It's been a great season for Oklahoma State but they will need a special effort plus a poor performance by Missouri to take this one.
Thursday, September 25
Big 12 Week 5 Preview
Army @ Texas Agriculture & Mining
I refuse to use the abbreviated version because that's what you do for good teams like USC or LSU. There is no reason why everyone should use "A&M", so I'm going to write the whole thing out to avoid confusion. (and yes, I know that officially the A&M stands for A&M... whatever) Losing to Arkansas State was embarassing, but losing to Miami? An ACC school? This is truly a low point for the Aggies, and that's saying a lot because they've been bad for a long time now. It'll be a battle of real soldiers vs rotc, and as usual real soldiers aren't recruited for their ability to run a skinny post.
Arkansas @ Texas
When this game was scheduled, it had some real potential. Too bad Arkansas lost the two players responsible for 130% of their offense (the passing game counts against them), and now struggle to beat the likes Western Illinois and LA-Monroe. Texas is averaging over 500 ypg against inferior opposition, which means they should get about that many against the Razorbacks en route to a comfortable win.
Colorado @ Florida State
If they're going to rank Vanderbilt for beating South Carolina and Ole Miss, then dammit CU needs to be ranked for beating West Virginia. This is a huge game for both teams, as FSU looks to prove that their 2-1 record isn't just the result of playing two FCS schools. Meanwhile CU is looking for respect as it is easy to get overlooked when you play in the same division as Missouri and Kansas. This should be an ugly but possibly entertaining game.
LA Lafayette @ Kansas St
Apparently Louisville was too much, so the Snydercats are back to playing another creampuff.
Texas Christian @ Oklahoma
As for why it's not written "TCU," see the first game preview. Gary Patterson annoys the piss out of me, and it'll be great to see Oklahoma come out fully pissed off about their loss to TCU a few years ago and win this one by 40.
Troy @ Oklahoma State
If Troy thought their game against the Buckeyes was tough, wait till they face the real OSU. (Buckeye.) Both offenses have been performing well against weak opposition, and this could actually be a decent game - recall that Troy won this one handily just last season. Ultimately, Zac Robinson is a better decision-maker than he was a year ago, and Kendall Hunter is showing the signs of being a real quality tailback. Also recall that the Cowboys played last season's game against Troy without Savage in, so they were not a team at full strength. This time around, I expect OSU to win a high-scoring game.
Virginia Tech @ Nebraska
Here are two programs who were both very strong when the BCS started and have since declined a bit. Perhaps unfortunately for VT, playing in a weak conference has allowed them to still rack up 8-10 victories a season, lose a BCs game, and say "hey, we still won the conference." Nebraska, on the other hand, has been routed by the Missouri's and Oklahoma's and were forced to abandon what wasn't working and bring in Pelini. The results have been good so far as the defense improved dramatically. With Nebraska having a passable defense and VT still having no offense to speak of, the Huskers have an edge here.
