Week 1 recap B10/Big E

This weekend showed the growth of these two conferences, and where they might be heading in the next few years. There has been a significant drop in talent in both of these conferences, and amazingly they are all still very competitive. However, it clearly showed that these two conferences have a few more years before their parity will climb to the point where they may be able to compete against the SEC.

So to break down what happened this weekend:

Thursday: Connecticut vs Hofstra and Cincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky. Connecticut is an aspiring Top 25 team, having shown last year that they have come a long way by beating Pitt and Rutgers last year. However they still have a ways to go, losing fairly handedly to both Cincinnati and West Virginia.

Cincinnati, on the other hand, was the surprise of the Big East, especially with the loss of a good coach in Dantoni. This should be their year, but next week they face the daunted Sooners. Putting that as a loss, their only real challenge afterwards should be WVU. This game was merely a warmup for the rest of the season.

Iowa State faced SD State. They only gave up two TDs, and in the fourth quarter. We'll really see whether Chizik has made second year improvements in week 3 when they face Iowa.

Saturday:

Ohio State played Tressel's old team, mainly to give the Penguins some money. However, as his moves showed in the first quarter, he used this game to prepare Terrelle Pryor for what's to come this season. You could say that 4 trips into the red zone with 3 field goals in the first half shows weakness, but taking into account that all three quarterbacks went in for a series or two in the first quarter you know that the offense didn't really get into a roll until the end of the second quarter. And in the end, Pryor showed what he was made of (dragging a few defenders into the end zone on a draw) and the defense shut down the Penguins completely. Ohio U has no chance, so we'll see if the offense can get on a better roll next week in preparation for USC in week 3.

Wisconsin may have a rushing attack, but they clearly showed that their passing attack needs work. They have two huge tight ends that can make things happen, but Evridge is only a mediocre quarterback that needs some time for refinement. PJ Hill showed he can still run through tackles and break some good runs, coming away with 210 yards in the game. Trust me, people will be expecting this - they will need some vertical attack to keep him from getting pummelled on every play.

Penn State vs Coastal Carolina? Not even worth three sentences.

Pittsburgh is the biggest disappointment for the Big East in week 1. Bowling Green is a decent MAC team, but they got blanked in the second half. That hand reaching the half century mark in passing is pitiful considering they don't have the quality receivers like Missouri does to make that worthwhile.

Northwestern is still in a rebuilding stage, but Bacher had enough control and their run game was successful against a Syracuse team that just didn't have any fire. The countdown to Robinson's firing started last year (winning 2 games is for n00bs), and the seat is only going to get hotter.

I don't even want to touch the Indiana and Iowa games, except to say that these kinds of matchups are exactly why other conferences say Big 10 sucks. Crap NC games doesn't do anything, doesn't make your team improve by playing bad competition. THANKS DELANEY!

West Virginia, however, is a confusing tale... since the final score hides the fact that they pretty much had the game in hand all the way through (2 td's in the fourth quarter, one with 2 seconds left). However, the baffling statistic is that they achieved less than 200 yards on the ground, which was not an uncommon figure with the Slaton/White duo of last year. Everyone claimed Noel Devine would be able to pick up the slack - but as you can clearly tell by the box score he doesn't have the breakaway talent that Slaton had. This is a cause for concern only if they were in a better conference... but they're not.

Michigan is a team that is TRULY rebuilding - new coach, new scheme, new quarterback, new running back... actually, you can say that pretty much the entire team is brand new. Having lost the race to get Pryor, they are stuck with a mediocre quarterback with no game-breaking ability (not to mention a poor arm and throwing technique). Their defense, which is supposed to keep them in games, made too many mistakes, and their offense will need a few more games to get into rhythm. Utah showed them how to run the option offense. We will have to keep close tabs to see how good Michigan gets by the time conference play rolls around.

Minnesota was the worst team of the Big 10 last year, and that will continue this year. Barely pulling out a win against a Northern Illinois team is sad... especially since Garrett Wolfe is no longer there. They lack playmakers in the backfield, and their rushing must improve by conference play otherwise they'll be blown away for the rest of the season.

Michigan State is on the rise! Yes, they lost to a Cal team that's on the decline, but Dantoni has done a phenomenal job in making this team competitive. Their problems start with penalties, but the positives will help them in the long run. They need to find a way to give the ball to Javon Ringer more - even though he carried the rock 27 times. If their O-line improves play, his yards per carry will increase. Hoyer needs to make better decisions throwing (40% completion percentage) but only threw one pick. The defense came up big, with one interception for a touchdown and another that prevented a touchdown. Both special teams suffered, with a blocked punt each. This is a quality loss for the Spartans, and if they start playing in both halves (they were non-existent in the first half) they really have a chance at beating the middle of the B10 conference.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Losing to the #6 team is not necessarily bad. Especially for an Illinois team that upset OSU last year. They wanted to avenge their loss to the Tigers from last year, but they were unable to keep it together. They had problems with two key things: penalties and turnovers. Would they have clinched out a win had Williams not thrown that 4th quarter interception? Would the defense, which lost their best player to the draft, have stepped up and gotten the ball back? Ron Zook must be happy that this year they competed a lot better than last year, but he knows that penalties and turnovers will kill him in the long run. However, Illinois still has time to blow away their next few opponents before meeting up with Penn State in the conference opener.

Sunday and beyond:

Louisville just sucks. All they get is a safety? Oh, and Rutgers? Nothing without Ray Rice. Fresno State looks to be really good this year...

All in all, we can clearly see that the Big 10 is gaining some momentum. Really - the addition of good coaches over the past 5 years into the league will help its transformation (Zook, Dantoni, Rodriguez, Bielema). We can also see that the Big East was really about star players: Rice made Rutgers, Slaton made WVU (with White), and Brohm made Louisville. Without them, the league is far worse off.

The Champs Sports Bowl: Blatant Commercialism, but Not As Bad as the PapaJohn's.com Bowl

Would you believe that according to the College Football Data Warehouse, the Champs Sports Bowl is a major bowl? Yeah, I'm surprised too, but I guess "Bowls People Watch To Escape Their In-Laws" is kind of an unwieldy designation. This game is best known for complete and total blowouts - Texas Tech 55-15 over Clemson in '02, NC State 56-26 over Kansas in '03, and GT 55-16 over Syracuse in '04 (they made a bowl?). Now we have a sub-.500 conference team facing a BCS contender. Who's ready for a close game? (Wait a while. Not happening here.)

Boston College (by Coach Lawrence)

The Boston College Eagles took advantage of one of the NCAA’s easiest first halves of a schedule to jump out to a quick 7-0 start and #2 national ranking. Their first living, breathing opponent, Virginia Tech, led the Eagles 10-0 late in the 4th quarter before a prevent defense, onside kick recovery, and TD pass on 3rd and 20 allowed BC to escape with a road victory over an eventual top 10 team. However, the following week their luck ran out against Florida State, as Matt Ryan threw three interceptions including a late game pick six to assure the end of their run at a perfect season. A loss to Maryland that was close in final score only added insult, and another multiple-interception game, to injury for the Eagles. After escaping Clemson with a 4th quarter victory and sending the lifeless Miami Hurricanes to an early end to their season, BC faced Va Tech in a rematch game for the ACC title. It was yet another multiple-interception performance from Ryan which nearly send the Va Tech Hokies to the national championship game.

Boston College features a defense which has shaved 1.3 ypc off of their allowed rushing average compared to 2006, moving their per-game average allowed from 109 to 68 ypg. What this has done is forced opposing teams to get into aerial battles with Matt Ryan, BC’s quarterback who was a Heisman hopeful before a string of turnover-prone games led to a 2-3 finish for the team. Unfortunately, while the rushing defense is vastly improved, everything else is about the same as last year. Rushing ypg offense is almost identical, and pass defense is marginally worse. The passing ypg is up almost 90 ypg, but QB rating changed by only +2, yards/attempt +0.1, and the TD:INT has doubled on both sides (same ratio). The Eagles literally live and die by Matt Ryan’s arm. In their 7-0 start, Ryan had a rating probably around 140 and a 17:5 TD:INT ratio. In their final six games, that fell to something below 120 and 11:12... in the three losses, a similar rating with 5:7.

Keys To Victory:
1. There really is just one key to victory for BC. Don’t throw interceptions. In 10 wins, you’d see Matt Ryan throw 2.3 TD and 1.1 INT, on average. In 3 losses, you’d see 1.7 TD and 2.3 INT on average. Throwing a pick isn’t a big deal, but when you kill TWO drives and give up twice the risk of a defensive score (offhand, both FSU and VT scored defensive touchdowns in their wins over BC) that’s when you start asking for trouble.

2. Stuff MSU’s rushing game. This has been the standard MO for the BC defense. However, Sparty runs for just over 200 ypg, so it’ll be a battle of wills. Bring the extra defender if needed... I’ll take Matt Ryan over Brian Hoyer if it comes to that.

3. DON’T THROW INTERCEPTIONS. Really, Matt, stop doing that. It’s bad for you.

Michigan State (by Coach Pendley)

Fun fact: Michigan State went 4-3 against bowl-playing teams this season. Of course, if you subscribe to the tenet that teams at .500 are bowl-eligible, the Spartans went 4-5. Another fun fact: Michigan State is one of four Big 10 teams to finish the season at 3-5 in conference, and one of three teams to finish at 7-5, 3-5. What's all that mean? It's that they don't really do anything well, although they at least took care of business against bad teams. And that win against Notre Dame is going to look really good in a few years.

MSU sports a two-headed rushing attack: Javon Ringer gets all the yards (1346) and Jehou Caulcrick gets all the credit (21 TDs). Devin Thomas is the only Big 10 WR to average over 100 yards receiving a game. The defense isn't half-bad, but where the Spartans really fall into trouble is in special teams - subpar punting and a 65% FG rate mean they can't afford to turn this game into a field position battle.

Keys to Victory:
1: Run the @#&$ out of it. Ask Virginia Tech what happens when you give the ball to Matt Ryan late in a close game. Ringer and Caulcrick are an incredibly potent 1-2 rushing combo, and they're going to have to be effective against the BC front 7. Of course, BC's front seven have been beasts all year, but the last thing you want to do is let them pin their ears back and start pass rushing.

2: Throw out the scout team. There's no way in hell that Michigan State has faced any QB who's as good as Matt Ryan (with the possible, but not likely, exemption of Curtis Painter). As rough as it is to say, the Spartans aren't going to be able to do anything beyond marginalize Ryan at best, so don't go nuts trying to stop him.

3: Limit the picks. Thomas should get his yards, but the BC secondary are ball hawks. Don't make it flagrantly obvious the ball is going to Thomas when Brian Hoyer drops back to pass and that'll help. What'll also help is MSU's secondary picking off a couple of Ryan's passes.