Bryce Brown, Brian Butler, and NCAA Basketball

So Bryce Brown’s been suspended from Tennessee football for the foreseeable future. Why? Well, apparently he took part in some tours as a high school sophomore that may have been paid for, and in the land of NCAA this qualifies as an improper benefit. The silver lining for UT in this is that it isn’t their fault; this occurred well before they – or, I’d assume, anyone – recruited Brown. So who arranged the trip? Brian Butler.

Butler’s an interesting character. He runs an organization called Potential Players, which is designed …well, according to their mission statement designed to do pretty awesome stuff. In reality, it’s less life guidance and more recruiting advisement. Okay, so technically that’s Life (or L.I.F.E.) Training, who’s also run by Butler but operates as a for-profit. Potential Players focuses on the spiritual side while LT focuses on recruiting and training. And no, I can’t explain what info you’d get by signing up on Potential Players – if they’re two disparate companies, shouldn’t you just get their preferred prayer locations? I mean, I guess there would be a situation where I would need to know Bryce Brown prefers to pray while showering, but I can’t think of what that situation would be.

As far as these things go, it’s murky but not entirely strange. So let’s muddy the water a bit. Butler’s not exactly a clean soul, but …hey, what else would you expect? But this business model isn’t unique – it’s just relatively unique in college football.

College basketball, on the other hand, is rife with this kind of thing. While the third-party recruiting service is a relatively new thing in college football, it’s somewhere between mildly entrenched and a fact of life in the college basketball realm. Heck, at this point Worldwide Wes is damn near a household name, and there’s reason for that. But there’s more than just Wes, and it’s not getting any better. Quite frankly, although college football recruiting makes me feel a little dirty (really, I should be excited over what a 17-year-old male wants to do? I’m not so recently removed from that and I had no idea what I wanted at all), college basketball recruiting is often so dirty it’ll make you wish for the halcyon days of the 1994 baseball labor strike. The power brokers in b-ball are simply astounding; while they don’t control all the flow of information, they control a lot of it.

The power brokers don’t lack for much. What they don’t directly - or indirectly - control can be summed up by three other sources: AAU, “elite” camps, and high school coaches. AAU and the like are what amounts to summer leagues; the coaches often don’t have a direct affiliation with any specific high school, and often are affiliated with some corporate sponsor or two – Nike and adidas being the two that everyone’s heard of. “Elite” camps are a cute little way to skirt the rules regarding on-campus visits; we’re seeing a couple of these pop up in college football as well. High school coaches are the ones that everyone knows about, but shockingly they have comparatively little pull in the recruiting landscape, as the power brokers use AAU to get their pull in. (They don't control AAU teams, as far as I know - they merely use them as connections.) Even they’re smart enough to not come near the camps.

So thanks to the above, the college basketball world has turned into is a nasty little pool of people exploiting the under-18 crowd by as many ways as possible in as short a time as possible; the problem – from the NCAA’s perspective – is how the heck do you untangle it? The elite camps fall outside of the realm of regulations, and so does AAU. The brokers are smart enough to not be directly involved with any of the recruitment process directly; again, they position themselves as brokers, who provide access and information in exchange for fees without providing coercion. The NCAA can’t realistically go after sponsors and have any credibility, since the sponsors have a very obvious retaliatory reply – one the NCAA won’t go near. As a result, the NCAA is reduced to hoping and waiting for the brokers to screw up – show up at an elite camp and pass money to an assistant, tout their services as the only way to ensure Prospect X comes to your college (but only at a fee!) – and quite frankly, their role is lucrative enough they’ll never need to do that.

As a result, the NCAA is forced to operate mostly at the margins, striking where they have jurisdiction. Brian Butler walked straight into that with his “academic” trip, which has to be funded from somewhere, right? If the NCAA can show - and no, I don’t know how – that Butler paid for the trip via money from a booster or a school, that’s an improper benefit. I don’t know if they can track money going into his program and claim that money went toward the trip; I doubt they’ll be able to, since I have a sneaking suspicion Butler’s accounting methods are less than exacting.

What this will let the NCAA do is finally exert influence over one of these semi-legitimate brokers. Provided they can prove their case, they may have the ability to limit Butler’s actions by declaring what he did as not allowable under their rules and regulations. That’ll have to be how they operate. If they can do this, then they can then move on to trying to stop something else. For the NCAA, they likely feel this is the only way they’ll be able to stop college football from turning into college basketball.

I’m not sure if I totally agree with that idea, but if guys like Butler can be limited I’d consider that a good thing. Recruiting is often quasi-shady enough without third parties getting involved. Still, until this gets figured out Bryce Brown is caught in the crossfire of a battle he didn’t even know existed. It sucks, but this is the price of making a statement.

Tennessee Volunteers '09: Rebound?

The 2008 Season in a Box
Tennessee’s 2008 season wasn’t as much in a box as much as it was in a brown paper bag, lit on fire and then dropped on the school nerd’s doorstep. The offense was fittingly enough trapped in some kind of Byzantine cage, never even approaching what anyone rational would term “on-track”. The only offensive highlights were against hapless UAB before everyone realized the Clawfense was a horrible mistake and an emotional, end-of-season victory over Kentucky. The defense, thankfully, was much better and the unequivocal star of the show; of course, the defense didn’t have a choice, since they spent about 31:30 on the field per game.

After another completely inept offensive performance against South Carolina, Tennessee mainstay Phillip Fulmer stepped down – effective at the end of the season, of course. It didn’t really fix anything, but Tennessee was able to “rebound” to go 2-1 (and yes, it should’ve been 3-0), including notching yet another victory over Kentucky. And then things got weird. Lane Kiffin, the Recruiting Chimera, and the Parade of Secondary Violations showed up in Knoxville, and it’s been at least an interesting offseason.

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Well, other than the entirely new coaching staff and burgeoning running back stable, there’s not a whole lot of reason to think it’ll be different other than luck. At the margins, there were a few reasons to be excited; the Vols actually outgained their opponents for the season, but those of you that are smart know that came in fits and starts, helped in no small part by a quality effort against UAB and a decent showing against UCLA. Aside from those two games, the Vols’ offense didn’t top 315 yards in any game, and only topped 250 yards in three other games.

Even though most of the key personnel return, there are a few things to like. For one, while this will be a new offense yet again, it won’t take two years to institute it like Clawsen’s offense did. (Presumably the coaching staff has also realized Jonathan Crompton lacks the mental acuity to handle complex tasks and won’t roll the entire thing out at once.) Monte Kiffin coming to college to institute his defense should be a lot of fun to watch, and he’s got one heck of a NFL talent to build on. There’s also a special teams coach now, too. Really, at the end of the day there’s just too much talent at Tennessee to tank to the tune of 5-7 again; sure, 8-4 may be the peak, but the breaks can’t be as painful as they were last season.

On Offense
Well, Jonathan Crompton sure sucked last year; 51.5% with a 4/5 ratio won’t get a damn thing done and it doesn’t matter who you are. He’ll open the season as the starter again since there’s not a whole lot else there; Nick Stephens never really got integrated with the first-team offense until it was too late, then got injured during spring practice, and realistic challenger B.J. Coleman transferred. I’d be surprised if Crompton plays worse this season than he did last year, and if he can obtain separation from Stephens early with competent-to-quality play that’ll do a lot to assuage the doubts of Tennessee fans. If he struggles, the cries for Stephens will get louder. Either way, I’d expect about a 55-57% peak completion percentage from either of them; they simply haven’t given me reason to think otherwise. The TD/INT ratio should get better, and the god-awful yards per attempt (5.7 across the team last year) should improve, if not to anything around 8 YPA at least to the 7 range.

Of course, improved QB play won’t matter if there’s nobody to throw it to. This year will be Gerald Jones’ chance to shine; not only is he the leading receiver returning from last year’s corps (unutilized talent Lucas Taylor departs), but he’s the most explosive player. Of course, it won’t be that easy; expected 2nd and 3rd options Denarius Moore and Austin Rogers are both injured, Rogers for the entire season. When healthy, Moore will be expected to serve as deep threat; don’t expect him to average 25 yards per catch like he did last year, but 18+ may not be out of the question. They’ll need someone to show up as the possession WR-type, but Tennessee will have to develop a passing game that’ll stretch any kind of zone coverage. (That’s another post in itself.) Tight end won’t be a big passing concern; Luke Stocker is solid but unspectacular. The wild card with the passing game is Brandon Warren. Warren originally transferred from Florida State to be closer to his grandmother, had to sit out a season, spent last year mostly on the sideline, then moved to WR, then went through hell during spring practice. There’s no guarantee what his role will be this season, but he wasn’t a Freshman All-American for nothing; the kid is talented. So is incoming freshman Nu’Keese Richardson.

Regardless of how the passing game breaks down, the Volunteer offense will likely depend on the running game (and interception returns, but I’m getting ahead of myself). Of course, even that can’t go entirely according to plan; Arian Foster graduated and Lennon Creer – thought to be the heir apparent – transferred, leaving Montario Hardesty and a stable of true freshmen as the stars of the crop. Presumptive backup and depth man Tauren Poole is already injured, meaning both Bryce Brown and David Oku will have to step up and into the rotation. On aggregate, the running game should be improved; fumbles should be down a bit but not too much, but the total 122 ypg average the crew pulled last year should move up a notch. There are a bit too many variables to take a stab at distribution at this point in time, though.

Formation-wise, I’d expect some pro-style derivative. Most of the key offensive coaching personnel came from USC, so signs point to something like that. Their approach will probably be fairly conservative for this season, but remember that USC has made a living off of a quality QB and a stable of RBs; that’s where Kiffin and the crew are trying to pull Tennessee. It may just take them a few years.

On Defense and Special Teams
Really, the Volunteer defense ends with Eric Berry. Why’s it end with him? Because you have no shot in hell of getting past him, so don’t even try. Berry was studtastic last year, garnering a first-team All-American selection and getting screwed out of the Jim Thorpe Award. Calling him a star would be an understatement, to put it mildly.

As for the rest of the D, Rico McCoy and a fair amount of the secondary return, but there are going to be some new faces up front – Tennessee graduated half of its starters from last year, chief among them Broncos’ draftee Robert Ayers. Nick Reveiz is probably the quintessential new face; he’s the current starting MLB and gets mistaken for a kicker. Good times.

Don’t expect quite as statistically dominant a season this year as last year; that won’t happen for numerous reasons, not the least of which is simple luck regression. The defense will be quality and should do a decent job of forcing turnovers, especially in the secondary. (Not to mention Berry is probably worth 3 defensive TDs on his own.)

Monte must be so happy to get to college ball and get a guy like Berry to function in the John Lynch role in the Tampa-2. He’ll likely have to adapt it for the slightly slower college game, but it goes without saying that Monte does one heck of a job rolling out quality defensive units year after year. I also wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a learning curve in the first year or two – or if the Vols roll out a simplified Tampa-2.

Special teams …well, doesn’t look that special right now. Daniel Lincoln returns, but other than that there isn’t anything to call home over. Dennis Rogan is a talented return man who maybe just hasn’t gotten the blocking yet or something, because his return numbers haven’t matched up with his capabilities yet. Maybe a dedicated special teams coach will help.

So What’s Their Bowl Game?
Really, as much as I hate to say it, these guys are a Music City Bowl-quality team right now. There are simply too many questions to think otherwise; if things break right they could sneak into the Outback, but right now Tennessee is sitting squarely in the lower half of the SEC East. They’re certainly better than Vandy (and likely Kentucky, who profile like a quasi-Tennessee), but South Carolina walloped the Vols last year and likely will again. Maybe they sneak a major upset, but I think it’s more likely an early-season win against UCLA lets them sneak to 6 wins at the lower end and they pull off one against this year’s SEC top dogs – or medium dogs, as it were

And let’s not talk about the QB situation for next season.

On Suspensions, Expulsions, Dismissals, and Other Things That Involve Blowing It

A bit of background: in the last week, Tennessee's dismissed Demetrice Morley and Donald Langley from the team. Now, most people reading this haven't heard of either of them - truth be told, I hadn't heard of Langley until today. Morley, on the other hand, was a starter last year - his story is already summed up here. These things taken on their own don't mean a whole lot, but in concert I'm a bit concerned.

I don't know the entire story behind either dismissal, nor do I expect to. Are these moves good for the Tennessee football team? I'd imagine so; you want to foster a culture of the team being above the individual. Those who can't play by the rules get summarily taken care of. However, what happens to the now ex-player? They do have the freedom to transfer; if they transfer and pick up a scholarship somewhere else, then good for them. What concerns me is what happens if they don't transfer and can't afford to stay in school otherwise (let's be honest: almost none of these guys could pick up academic scholarships, and a fair amount of them can't foot the bill to attend school without the scholarship). In essence, a scholarship cut amounts to "good luck in life", and that's not a message I want to send. This is the price of having a burgeoning college football factory.

I'd also say this is the difference between Fulmer and Kiffin. With Fulmer, there was always the element of humanity. Fulmer was committed to fielding and developing the best football team he could, but it would be hard for someone to say that he didn't care about either his current or former players. Fulmer pretty clearly put his heart into coaching the kids to be the best players and people they could be (with a few exceptions - hi, Kelley Washington! How's that Future working out for you?). His problem was never the off-field component; the unwinding of Fulmer could probably be tied pretty directly to the fortunes of David Cutcliffe and the stagnation of the Tennessee offense in his absence. Fulmer's offensive philosophies could be summed up with "run, run, screen, punt", and he needed a guiding influence away from that.

Because of those on-field issues, Kiffin and the coaching crew were brought in to develop the best football program they could. What we don't know at this point is if they'll develop the best football team at the expense of developing the best people. They've already developed a pretty killer instinct with respect to getting talent in the door - and getting talent out the door. Of course, it's yet to be seen if the results show up on the field, but the talk is certainly there.

I'd be lying if I said I was completely comfortable with the shift; I'd love to have a relevant football team again, but the systematic purging of the football machine just feels a bit too impersonal. This churn makes sense at the professional level, but in the college ranks I don't know what to make of it yet. I'm reminded of the transition that Charlie Weis had to go through (god, I hate bringing him into this, but I need him here) when he went to Notre Dame: you can't yell at freshmen like you can rookies. I'm thinking the same rules apply here: you can't churn sophomores like you can two-year players. If you want to pull them off the team go for it, but be careful before leaving them to twist entirely in the breeze.

Trial by Fire

Before all Volunteer home games, the press crew shows video of the Vols reciting General Neyland's seven maxims. They're as follows:

1. The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.

2. Play for and make the breaks and when one comes your way - score.

3. If at first the game - or the breaks - go against you, don't let up... put on more steam.

4. Protect our kickers, our QB, our lead and our ball game.

5. Ball, oskie, cover, block, cut and slice, pursue and gang tackle... for this is the winning edge.

6. Press the kicking game. Here is where the breaks are made.

7. Carry the fight to our opponent and keep it there for 60 minutes.

I'm so glad that Tennessee uses these statements as guidelines. I'm ecstatic that the new offense has stepped up to return the Volunteers to past glory. I'm so happy that the Tennessee special teams has really turned around. We've really stepped up our team discipline, and we're not making the same stupid mistakes over and over. I feel like we're really ready to step up and take the next step to being able to contend for the SEC East title. We've stuck to the maxims, right?

Well, we know that wasn't the case in 2002.

Alabama @ Tennessee, October 26, 2002:
"Volunteers fumble by Derrick Tinsley (TENN), recovered by Gerald Dixon (ALA), returned for a 68 yard touchdown." What isn't included in this was that fumble was really a designed screen pass; Casey Clausen decided to throw a screen pass that was technically a lateral. Tinsley didn't realize it was a lateral, left the ball alone, and a quick-acting Dixon returned the ball for a TD. That was the first score of the game - Alabama went on to win 34-14. Play for and make the breaks and when one comes your way - score.

Florida @ Tennessee, September 21, 2002:
2nd Q, 4:45 left: "Volunteers fumble by Casey Clausen (TENN), recovered by Marcus Oquendo-Johnson (FLA), returned for no gain." Converted into a Florida TD.
2nd Q, 3:32 left: "Volunteers fumble by Corey Larkins (TENN), recovered by Johnny Lamar (FLA), returned for no gain." This was on the kickoff immediately after that first Florida TD. Rex Grossman threw a pick on the next play.
Next play: "Volunteers fumble by Casey Clausen (TENN), recovered by Casey Clausen (TENN), advanced for no gain."
One play later: "Volunteers fumble by Casey Clausen (TENN), recovered by Casey Clausen (TENN), advanced for no gain." Florida scores after the Voluntereers punt - that's another TD.
Last play before the half: "Volunteers fumble by Troy Fleming (TENN), recovered by Clint Mitchell (FLA), 4 yard return." Florida kicks a FG. That's 17 points in 5 minutes. Florida goes on to win, 30-13. The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.

What about 2003?

Georgia @ Tennessee, October 11, 2003:
Last play before the half: "Volunteers fumble by Casey Clausen (TENN), recovered by Sean Jones (GA), returned for a 92 yard touchdown." Before this, Tennessee was down 13-7 and had the ball on the UGA 3. Maybe they get stuffed and have to kick a FG, right? Not so much. Georgia goes on to win 41-14. Play for and make the breaks and when one comes your way - score.

2004 wasn't a bad year, right?
Auburn @ Tennessee, October 2, 2004:
There was no one backbreaking play here, thankfully (Clausen graduated in 2003). However, Tennessee had 6 turnovers - 5 picks and one fumble. Always good to go into the half down 31-3, turning a top 10 showdown into a blowout. The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.

Notre Dame @ Tennessee, November 6, 2004:
3rd Q: "Rick Clausen (TENN) pass across the middle intercepted by Mike Goolsby (ND). Returned for a 26 yard touchdown." Oh shit, we're not done with the fucking Clausens yet? I'm going to break something. Play for and make the breaks and when one comes your way - score. Let's just move on to 2005.

Georgia @ Tennessee, October 8, 2005:
2nd Q, ~2:00 left: "Rick Clausen sacked by Charles Johnson, fumbled at the Tenn 26, recovered by UGA at the Tenn 26, tackled by Charles Johnson." Georgia kicks a FG before the half to go up 10-0; that's not too bad, right?
4th Q, 8:50: "Britton Colquitt punt for 46 yards, returned by Thomas Flowers for 54 yards for a TOUCHDOWN." Oh, good; now we've gone from down 13-7 to down 20-7. Press the kicking game. Here is where the breaks are made.
Also, just for the hell of it: "Brandon Coutu kickoff for 64 yards returned by Lucas Taylor for 25 yards to the Tenn 26, Tennessee penalty 19 yard illegal block accepted." "Tennessee penalty 51 yard illegal block accepted, no play." "Brandon Coutu kickoff for 65 yards returned by Lucas Taylor for 11 yards to the Tenn 11, Tennessee penalty 5 yard holding accepted." The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.

South Carolina @ Tennessee, October 29, 2005:
No one backbreaking play, thankfully. But:
- 3 plays, 9 yards, punt
- 0 plays, 0 yards, INT
- 4 plays, -2 yards, missed FG
- 6 plays, 21 yards, punt
- 4 plays, 15 yards, punt
- 3 plays, 18 yards, fumble
- 3 plays, 0 yards, punt
- 3 plays, 3 yards, punt
- 7 plays, 19 yards, turnover on downs
I'm so glad we have such an effective offense against the best teams in the SEC. Carry the fight to our opponent and keep it there for 60 minutes.

Vanderbilt @ Tennessee, November 19, 2005:
Let's not even talk about what happened during the game; this was Vandy's first win over the Vols in 20+ years. And it was at home. On second thought:
4th Q, less than 1 minute to go, Vanderbilt driving: "Tennessee penalty 11 yard pass interference accepted, no play." Next play, Jay Cutler to Earl Bennett for the game-winning TD. Discipline. Also, while we're at it: "Bryant Hahnfeldt punt for 47 yards, returned by Jonathan Hefney for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 33, Tennessee penalty 10 yard holding accepted." Carry the fight to our opponent and keep it there for 60 minutes.

2006 - David Cutcliffe returns, thank god.
Florida @ Tennessee, September 16, 2006:
First play of the game: "Erik Ainge pass intercepted by Reggie Nelson at the Fla 41, returned for no gain to the Fla 41."
This isn't reflected in any game score, but after Wilhoit kicks a FG to put the Vols up 20-14, Ainge decides to do the Gator Chomp in front of the Florida student section. The next drive, Florida goes up 21-20. The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.

LSU @ Tennessee, November 4, 2006:
Tennessee's up 17-14 late in the third quarter against a very, *very* good Tigers team. And yet: "Britton Colquitt punt for 39 yards downed at the LSU 33, Tennessee penalty 15 yard kick catching interference accepted." LSU scores on the ensuing drive, LSU's up 21-17.
First play of the 4th quarter: "James Wilhoit 46 yard field goal MISSED."
LSU's last drive of the game: "LSU drive: 15 plays, 80 yards, 07:14 LSU TD." Six first downs. One - yes, one - third down conversion. Protect our kickers, our QB, our lead and our ball game. Ball, oskie, cover, block, cut and slice, pursue and gang tackle... for this is the winning edge. Carry the fight to our opponent and keep it there for 60 minutes.

2007. We defend our home turf, going undefeated at home. Let's be generous and ignore the ignominious opening game at Cal, the skull-crushing courtesy of Florida, and the inexplicable only good game John Parker Wilson had all year.

And yesterday. "Brandon James went 52 yards for Florida with the opening kickoff and soon after the Gators were in the end zone. Tim Tebow flipped a 2-yard pass over the top of the line of scrimmage to Aaron Hernandez for a 7-0 lead five minutes into the game.

James, who's had four career punt returns for touchdowns, returned a punt 78 yards for a touchdown to put Florida up 17-0 with 4:42 in the first quarter. At least five Vols defenders missed James as he blew by them."

"Twice Tennessee drove to the Florida 1 and fell apart. In the second quarter, Jonathan Crompton simply dropped the ball drooping back to pass and Gators defensive end Carlos Dunlap fell on it.

The next time down, Crompton was picked off in the end zone by Janoris Jenkins right before halftime." If at first the game - or the breaks - go against you, don't let up... put on more steam.

1. The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win.

2. Play for and make the breaks and when one comes your way - SCORE.

3. If at first the game - or the breaks - go against you, don't let up... put on more steam.

4. Protect our kickers, our QB, our lead and our ball game.

5. Ball, oskie, cover, block, cut and slice, pursue and gang tackle... for this is the WINNING EDGE.

6. Press the kicking game. Here is where the breaks are made.

7. Carry the fight to our opponent and keep it there for 60 minutes.

I'm glad we're doing a good job of that. We're ready to take that next step. (In the interest of full disclosure, all game summaries and play-by-play data courtesy of ESPN, who apparently have a pretty nice database of these sort of things if you know how to find it.)

The Outback Bowl: Kicking Off 2008!

You can’t spell Outback without UT, right? Of course, the line was a little better when Spurrier was 1) talking about the Citrus Bowl and 2) coaching a good team, but Tennessee was in Tampa last year and they’ll be there again this year, too. This will be Wisconsin’s third visit to the Outback Bowl, winning in 1995 against Duke (!) and losing in 1998 against Georgia.

As for the bowl itself, it’s the first bowl of the New Year. East Coasters will normally get a kick out of rolling out of bed and nursing a hangover while watching this game (or the Cotton Bowl). West Coasters will curse this damn bowl for kicking off at 8 AM while they’re still drunk off their ass, because hello, you have to call your brother on the East Coast at 7 AM to piss him off, but there’s a bowl game in four hours, so: fuck. And if you actually follow one of these teams when you’re on the West Coast and you’re at a party the night before, well, it sucks to be you.

Tennessee (by Coach Pendley)

From the hot seat to the SEC East crown, it was a nice year for Phil Fulmer. Of course, there’s the question of if it was even needed for Fulmer to be on the hot seat; after all, his teams have consistently gotten at least 8 wins a year with the exception of 2005 (which you can blame the offense for – thanks, Randy Sanders!), but complacency is the enemy of impatient fans. That was definitely the case in Knoxville this year, as opening the season with road losses to Cal and Florida bookending a not-terribly-impressive win over Southern Miss had the fanbase restless.

And then something funny happened – the Vols started to win. They had a huge statement win over Georgia and a tougher-than-it-looked win over Mississippi State. Losing to Alabama left the Vols at 4-3, 2-2 and it wasn’t likely that the Vols could carry the conference. Five straight wins (and a Georgia win over Florida, an LSU win over Florida, and an Auburn win over Florida) later, the Vols ended up in the SEC Championship game. They played a mostly even game, losing due to an Erik Ainge misreading of coverage turning into a pick six and a second misread effectively ending the game.

Of course, it’s tough to get too upset at Ainge, because without him Tennessee was likely headed for a 7-5 season. He provided most of the offense, passing for over 3,100 yards on the season with a 63% completion percentage and a 29/10 ratio. More than anything else, he’s been consistent; he still completes passes above 60% in losses and while the 7/4 ratio in losses isn’t great, it’s certainly not terrible. It also helps that Tennessee’s O-line only allowed 4 sacks on the season, no mean feat given the way this offense set up.

What will hurt is losing WR Lucas Taylor for the Outback Bowl; Taylor had been the Vols’ best receiver with an even 1,000 yards on the season. Without Taylor, the pass-catching duties fall to WRs Austin Rogers and Josh Brisco and TE Chris Brown Rogers has been the more consistent of the two options, but Brisco is still solid. Brown is more of a short-yardage TE than a real deep threat, but he catches a lot of the passes thrown his way.

Tennessee’s rushing offense was slightly less than expected this year, but that was due to LaMarcus Coker getting kicked off the team. Arian Foster took back the starting duties and excelled – rushing for 1,162 yards and 12 TDs – but Tennessee didn’t have a consistent second option. Montario Hardesty came closest, running for 4.12 yards per carry and 3 TDs.

On defense, Tennessee was less than impressive, giving up 162 yards a game on the ground and 245 yards a game through the air. The pass defense did shore up greatly in November and the run D did get a little better after a disastrous September It probably didn’t help matters that the D-line had issues getting to the QB, registering only 22 sacks on the year. Sure, that was 18 more than they gave up, but that’s a function of their offensive line, not drastically improved pass rushing.

Keys to Victory:
1: Hold P.J. Hill to less than 100 effective yards. One of the oddities of the UT / Arkansas game is that while McFadden did get 117 yards, they were almost all ineffective yards. I don’t’ particularly care if Hill is getting 5 yards on 3rd and 8, but I do care if it’s on 1st and 10. Stop Hill when they need to and it won’t matter a ton what happens on the meaningless rushes.

2: 100/50. A minimum of 100 yards for Foster, 50 for Hardesty. Wisconsin has either limited offenses to around (or less than) 50 yards on ground or around 150 and up. Not coincidentally, the teams that got stopped lost handily; if teams were able to top 200 yards on the ground against Wisconsin they went 3-1. The 100/50 is a minimum, but my hunch is that if Foster and Hardesty can get those minimums they’ll get enough yardage around the edges to approach the magical 200.

3: Keep Wisconsin’s secondary honest. The key to beating the Badgers lies in an effective running game, but since Tennessee will be able to field two solid WRs and an annoying matchup in Chris Brown, they should be able to keep seven in the box most of the game. If the running game is working, they won’t need 300+ yards from Ainge, but they will need some solid game management. Fortunately, Ainge can provide that.

4: Don’t let the coaching losses bother you. OC David Cutcliffe is gone after the season to Duke and WR/RB coach Trooper Taylor (who Vols fans damn near adore) is leaving to become the co-offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State – but they’re not gone yet! Play hard in their last game.

Wisconsin (by Coach Lawrence)

Following a 12-1 campaign in 2006 and a bizarre bowl win over Arkansas in which they were outgained 386-201 but the Razorbacks imploded with 12 penalties for 123 yards, Wisconsin was the preseason favorite to finish second in the Big Ten to Michigan – the only team to beat the Badgers in 2006. When Michigan started off 0-2 (eventually 3-2) and Wisconsin 5-0, things looked promising for Wiscy. But beneath the record, Wisconsin had looked terrible in unnecessarily close wins over UNLV, Iowa, and Michigan State... even The Citadel hung with them for three quarters. Blame Tyler Donovan, who looked pretty good in week 1 vs Washington State before steadily declining over the course of the early season. And so the stage was set for an epic upset by upstart Illinois, rebounding to a 4-1 start after losing their opener to equally upstart Missouri. On their home turf, the Illini rode a +2 turnover margin and dominating ground games by Mendenhall and Williams to a 5-point victory. Okay, the season’s not over... what’s this? 31 point loss at Penn State? Now the Badgers were struggling and really missing the leadership (and arm) of John Stocco as teams were loading the box against PJ Hill. Wisconsin rebounded to annihilate Indiana and Northern Illinois before hosting Ohio State. A 10-3 halftime lead quickly evaporated in a second-half beatdown, and the Badgers chances of a New Year’s bowl hinged on beating Michigan – the team who was picked to finish first and were riding an 8-game winning streak. Anti-climactically, the Wolverines didn’t even play Mike Hart and rested Chad Henne after just five attempts, and the Badgers went on to dominate. In the season finale, Minnesota managed to make the game entertaining against Wisconsin, but ultimately the 250 yards gained by Zach Brown were too much to handle.

Wisconsin is successful when they pound the ball over and over; from the Ron Dayne era when the BCS kicked off through the success behind PJ Hill the last two seasons... even when Zach Brown is playing, Wiscy runs and runs to the tune of 45.5 carries and 201.5 yards a game. Donovan has at times provided strong support through the passing game, but really his job is to keep the defense honest and not turn the ball over. However, the Badgers do sport arguably the best tight end in the nation, the team’s leading receiver Travis Beckum who averages 80 ypg in catches and leads the team in TD catches with 6.

Defensively, nothing really stands out. Wisconsin gives up 139 yards rushing and 210 yards passing per game – neither terrible nor great. Fans might be concerned that the defensive numbers have been average against below-average offenses, hmm. Then again, the Big Ten has posted a 2-1 record in their December bowls, so their streak of four straight seasons without a winning bowl record may be nearing an end? We’ll see how all that shapes out.

Keys to Victory:
1) The running game. Try 243 yards in victory, 75 yards in defeat – that’s what the split stats on Wisconsin’s ground game say. It is absolutely critical that the Badgers are able to ride the legs of Hill and Brown. If both played I’d say 150/75 should be their yardage goals, but we don’t know how much Hill will be in the game so Brown may need to be prepared to post 175+ by himself. He’s ready for the responsibility, as the Michigan game demonstrated.

2) Donovan and Beckum need to hook up for 100 yards. Passing the ball at all keeps the defense honest, but Beckum demands help from the linebackers and safeties, which keeps the running lanes a little more clean. Furthermore, Donovan needs to throw more TDs than INTs. 1:0 is fine if it’s that.

3) Load the box, stop Foster and Hardesty. The goal should be 100 yards or less total rushing. While Erik Ainge is a strong QB, Tennessee lacks the receiver corps of last season to make up for, say, a 150 yard deficit in the ground game.