Big 12: Championship Week, BCS Scenerios

The Big 12 Championship Game

The 2008 Big 12 Championship features two teams with equal or lesser records as the Texas Longhorns, an 0-2 record against Texas with average margin of defeat 17.5 points, and a lower ranking than Texas in both the AP and Harris polls. (OU led Texas by one point in the Coaches poll) I'm not going to pretend not to be bitter about this, and I'll feel no shame in flagrantly rooting against the conference representative in a potentially image-redefining BCS Championship should Oklahoma go. With that said, let's talk about the upcoming game in Kansas City.

Oklahoma enters this game red-hot, especially on the offensive side. Since being held to 35 points by Texas, Oklahoma has averaged 59.5 points per game. Their 53.3 ppg for the season is the highest by any team during the BCS era. It's no stretch to say that we are looking at one of the best college offenses in the last ten years, and their performance in the next two games could vault the unit into the all-time discussion. Sam Bradford has thrown for a ridiculous 340 ypg, 191.0 QB rating, and 46:6 ratio. Counting a few runs, he has scored 51 TDs. Demarco Murray has eclipsed 1000 rushing yards and Chris Brown is just 12 yards away from accomplishing the same feat.

Defensively, Oklahoma has issues. The unit ranks 61st in scoring defense, and you have to remember that 2007 LSU is the only team ever to win a BCS Championship Game with a defense ranked outside of the top 10 in scoring (as I noted, if we take away overtime points then they were something like 6th in scoring). That could be an issue in a month. This weekend, though, Oklahoma is more than capable of beating Missouri by simply outgunning the Tigers' offense.

Missouri's offense is no slouch either, coming in ranked 4th in scoring at 45 ppg. Chase Daniel has struggled with consistency issues, but at the end of the day still has a 168.5 rating and a 34:13 ratio. The Tigers are trying to run the ball better this year, averaging 165 ypg on the ground, but their identity is still in the passing game. Jeremy Maclin has developed into one of the nation's top receivers - despite a decline in his special teams produection - and Chase Coffman has stepped up to be a premiere tight end, averaging 87 ypg in receptions.

Missouri's defense has also been porous, 59th in scoring and barely holding opposing offenses under 400 ypg. This is their ranking despite not facing Oklahoma or Texas Tech during the regular season! We saw them give up 40 points last week to Kansas, a team which has struggled in 2008 after an outstanding 2007. There is really little chance that this unit will fare much better against the Sooners than their other recent opposition has.

All-in-all, Missouri will probably get 1-3 defensive stops in this game, at least up until the point where the game's outcome is no longer in doubt. The Missouri offense will have to perform nearly flawlessly for them to have a chance to win -- something that looked possible at the beginning of the season, but simply hasn't materialized on the field. Chase Daniel will need to cut down on the mistakes and play like the ~80% passer he was in September for the Tigers to even have a chance in this one.

BCS Scenerios

There are two BCS scenerios for the Big 12:

If Oklahoma defeats Missouri

* Oklahoma faces the SEC Champion in the BCS Championship

* Texas plays in the Fiesta Bowl

If Missouri defeats Oklahoma

* Texas faces the SEC Champion in the BCS Championship

* Missouri plays in the Fiesta Bowl

Couldn't a Florida upset of Alabama lead to a Texas vs Oklahoma BCS Rematch?

Some sportswriters are propagating this theory, which is just ludicrous. The idea is that if OU beats Missouri and Florida beats Alabama, Texas and Florida will finish neck-and-neck in the voter polls while Texas wins the bulk of the computer polls. This is wrong for two reasons:

It won't be close in the voter polls. Florida has been *annihilating* every team they've faced since mid October. Not only outscoring them (like Oklahoma) but doing that while also shutting down the opposing offense. It's been downright scary. The only knock on Florida is the lack of a truly marquee win - marquee on the level that Texas beating Oklahoma or Oklahoma beating Texas Tech was marquee. Giving Alabama their only loss in the conference championship would give the Gators that quality win, and rightly propel them into the top two of the voter polls.

Realize that Oklahoma just jumped ahead of Texas in the computer polls after defeating Oklahoma State, and despite having lost to Texas. (so any gain in OU's ratings boosted the Texas ratings) Florida would get a much larger boost from beating Alabama, and additionally that's not doing anything to help Texas' ratings. Realistically, Florida will be ahead of Texas in at least three of the computer polls if they defeat Alabama. I'd bet on them being ahead in four or five.

The SEC Champion is going to the BCS title game.

Couldn't a Missouri win lead to the Big 12 not getting into the BCS Championship?

Why? Because Texas isn't "conference champion" and the team that would be, Missouri, is clearly not one of the top two teams in the country?

The conference champion argument ultimately boils down to the idea that conference champion = best team. For example, if 2001 Colorado was the B12 Champion, then if they weren't good enough to play in the BCS championship, it must be true that teams who are worse than them (Nebraska) weren't good enough either. On some level, that argument works if you buy into Colorado's close rematch win over Texas making them the better team, or for that matter if you consider Colorado's win over Nebraska not an upset despite their records. I'm not going to discuss the 2001 Big 12 though; in the 2008 season, clearly, Missouri is not the best team (or even a top 3 team) in the Big 12. If they win it will truly be an upset, like Iowa beating Penn State or Oregon State beating USC. The only difference will be that Missouri's upset took place in a game that negates the regular season.

For Oklahoma, that's of little consolation. It would be the Sooners' second loss, which alone makes them less deserving than a team like USC. But for Texas, voters will rationalize that the Big 12 Conference simply dropped the ball and invited the wrong team to represent the South. After all, Texas easily defeated Missouri by 25 points in October in a surprisingly one-sided game. They defeated Oklahoma by 10. They lost one game on a last-second bomb to the end zone. The voters already felt that Texas was more deserving than Oklahoma, but their vote was so close that the computers were able to overturn it. A Missouri upset makes Texas the de-facto best team in the conference.

What about the numbers? Texas, Utah, Texas Tech, and Penn State are all idle. There is no reason for the voters to swap teams based on that, and obviously the computers will not swap any of those teams while they are not playing. USC? They're a solid 2-3 spots behind Texas in the voter polls, and 6 spots behind in the computer average! Playing a terrible UCLA team who just allowed ASU's defense to score four touchdowns is just not going to give them the massive boost they'd need to overtake Texas.

The closest possibility is a Florida-Alabama rematch if Florida wins. But the voters would probably be more opposed to this than to sending Texas to the BCS Championship, and on top of that Alabama already trails Texas in the computer polls; a loss would only inflate that margin.

If Oklahoma loses this Saturday, Texas is in.

Which Big 12 South team...

...is tops in the division? Here in college football's toughest division, we've got exactly the end-of-season mess we knew we were going to end up with. Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field way back in early October. Texas lost on the road at Texas Tech on a last-second bomb to the end zone a few weeks ago. Then Oklahoma blew out Texas Tech at home just last weekend. It's the bizarre combination of timing, margin of victory, and game location that make this debate the most interesting.

For the purpose of argument, let's assume each team ends up 11-1. This means Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State on the road, Texas beats Texas A&M at home, and Texas Tech beats Baylor at home. Obviously this does more for Oklahoma than it does for either other team, whose victories would be about equally (un-)impressive. Who deserves to play in the Big 12 Champioship game, with the opportunity to go on to play in the BCS Championship?


First looking at the head-to-head games.

Texas beat Oklahoma 45-35 on a neutral field in Dallas, about equidistant from both campuses, on Oct 11. Texas outgained OU by a paltry 3 yards, but held a 161-48 advantage in rushing, a +2 turnover margin (practically speaking +1, as Bradford's meaningless final heave into the end zone was intercepted), had a 96 yard KO return, and a +12 yard average punt length. The powerful offenses played to a standstill while Texas won the turnovers and special teams contests.

Texas Tech beat Texas 39-33 in a home game on Nov 1. In a tale of two halves, the Red Raiders led 22-6 at halftime but were outscored 27-17 in the second half. Texas Tech's two second half touchdowns came off a pick-six and of course the game's final drive. The Red Raiders outgained Texas by 205 yards and were +1 in turnovers, but the Longhorns partially negated this with a red zone defense that forced three short field goals. The Horns blocked another FG attempt in the third quarter and Jordan Shipley returned a punt for a TD, as the Horns again won the special teams battle.

Oklahoma beat Texas Tech 65-21 in a home game on Nov 22. The Sooners' 35 point outburst in the second quarter put the game almost beyond doubt at halftime. The Sooners outgained the Red raiders by 219 yards and Sam Bradford threw the ball the manly way, averaging 16 yards an attempt. OU was also +2 in turnovers.

Head-to-head games pretty much narrow it down to Texas and Oklahoma. The Texas victory was by double digits on a neutral field, and the Oklahoma victory was by such a ridiculously lopsided margin that it likely didn't matter where the game was played. On the other hand, the Texas Tech victory came down to the last drive at home, and included a dropped interception which could have ended it with about 12 seconds left. On the basis of this, Texas has the most forgivable loss while Oklahoma has the most impressive victory.


Now looking at other games.

Oklahoma has the strongest nonconference wins, both home wins over Cincinnati (9-2, this week's Big East leader) and TCU (10-2, Mountain West #2). On the down side, they have scheduled a FCS team, Chattanooga, and the only winless team from a BCS conference, Washington. Oklahoma drew Kansas, Kansas State, and Nebraska from the North. Their statement road win would be a victory over Oklahoma State.

Texas has the strongest conference wins, as they are the only team of the three to face Missouri - a 56-35 home victory that was 35-3 at halftime. Texas also drew Kansas and Colorado from the North, both on the road. The Longhorns' nonconference schedule is unimpressive as they have faced Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Arkansas, and Rice. However, all four opponents are FBS teams and anywhere from 1 to 3 will be bowl eligible.

Texas Tech has faced a complete joke of a nonconference schedule - Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and Massachussetts. UMass and EWU are FCS teams and SMU is sitting at 1-10. Within the conference, they did not face Missouri from the North, drawing Kansas State, Nebraska, and Kansas instead.

Again these games seem to simply eliminate the Red Raiders from discussion. Texas's victory over Missouri is the most impressive of the bunch, but OU's win over Cincy will look pretty good if (when) the Bearcats win out against Syracuse and Hawaii. TCU is also a reasonably impressive victory, and Oklahoma State will be a road game for the Sooners. On the other hand, scheduling FCS teams is a major detractor, and Washington is just awful. (the latter not being the Sooners' fault; then again, the results that Arkansas, TCU, and Cincy have posted weren't imminently obvious when these games were scheduled either)


Style Points?

Oklahoma has the #1 offense in the country, averaging a shade over 52 ppg. On the other hand, Texas is the only team in the bunch allowing under 20 ppg on defense.


Bottom Line.

Every argument involving all three teams seems to simply put Texas Tech as the 3rd-best team in the bunch. Their victory over Texas may have indeed been a fluke, as Texas basically didn't show up until halftime and even then TTU needed a dropped interception to win the game. But does the "fluke" loss make Texas #1? I don't know that you necessarily reward a team for pissing away an entire half of football in a known marquee matchup. At least when Oklahoma lost, they played well enough so that the only reason Texas was able to win was by elevating their own level of play in the second half. (the injury to OU's MLB also helped; then again, he's lost for the season so that can't really be written off)

However, if Texas Tech is clearly third in the group for multiple reasons, then the head-to-head matchup matters that much more. I think the tiebreaker goes to Texas, and the win over Missouri (more impressive than a win over Cincy) ices the deal.


What about Bob Stoops' argument?

Bob Stoops made the argument that ranking Texas ahead of Oklahoma on the basis of head-to-head also implies that Texas Tech should be ahead of Texas on the basis of head-to-head. Obviously, it is impossible to rank all 3 teams on that basis, as Oklahoma also beat Texas Tech.

Stoops' argument is one of retrodictive accuracy in polling, and it ignores one thing. Of the six possible ways to order these three teams, three such sets produce one ranking violation while three sets produce two ranking violations. The Occam's Razor solution is to try to have a set of rankings which relies on as few outcomes being "flukes" as is possible (and rational). Those three sets are:

1. Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas
2. Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
3. Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma

A better version of Mack Brown's argument is that, once we have decided that Texas Tech is the #3 team, which it seems like just about everyone agrees on, it makes more sense to use the order
Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
than it does to use the order
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech
because the former only produces one ranking violation while the latter produces two. Or said another way, either way we are assuming that Texas is better than Texas Tech despite their head-to-head. Adding on top of that Oklahoma being better than Texas despite their head-to-head means having to ignore even more results of important games.

The great irony here is that the counterargument relies on margin of victory - only the OU-TTU result was a blowout where one team was clearly better than the other; therefore, its result is the most likely to be indicative of the teams' relative strengths, while the other two games could be considered coin flips that just happened to come out the way they did. A power rankings which include MoV could say that OU > UT > TTU, say at each time by a small amount (enough that upsets aren't too unlikely), but the two little gaps combined imply that OU >> TTU. Such a sophisticated ranking system would use both homefield advantage and margin of victory as well as how recently the games were played. HFA gives Texas an advantage, while MoV and timing give OU an advantage. The computer rankings are explicitly not allowed to include MoV in part because that helped Texas get a BCS berth over Cal in 2004. Texas may now benefit from a rule that was designed to "correct" the system for how it helped them (and thwarted the Rose Bowl/Jim Delany) several seasons ago. The non-explicit implication of this was that the BCS valued retrodictive accuracy over predictive power (also implied by the widespread outrage over the selection of 2000 FSU over Miami and 2001 Nebraska over Colorado - nevermind that choosing Miami ignores Washington, and choosing Colorado would ignore overall record). So in addition to throwing out margin of victory, the computer polls used in the BCS also stopped using HFA and most (if not all) stopped using the timing of the games.

This one's for James

So I'm watching Sportscenter this morning and they're showing the top 10 highlights from the OU / Texas Red River Shootout. #2? Chris Simms getting wrecked in the end zone as Roy Williams forces a pick, effectively ending the game (14-3 late in the 4th).

And yes, the first thing I thought was "sweet, I get to use the Chris Simms sucks" label. I've been waiting for this one for a while.

Longhorn Mack

(Disclaimer: this post is written in the Hubie Brown person.)

Not-so-hypothetical question. Suppose you're currently sitting atop the conference rankings and #2 in the BCS. You're fortunate to play in a conference retarded enough to negate the regular season with a conference championship game when no tiebreaker is needed, and you're in a rematch situation. The first time around, you mercilessly annihilated the team you'll be facing. They have no passing game to speak of and they don't play defense. You, on the other hand, have one of the top five QBs and receiving corps in the country, and a top ten defense to boot. Here's the kicker: you know that victory means facing the greatest team of all time and that they will absolutely make your team their bitch on national television, so you'd kinda like to lose this one then go on to a winnable bowl game. You can't just tell your players to lose on purpose, so you've got to come up with a gameplan for defeat. What do you do?

As discussed earlier, the correct response was "Start Chris Simms."

The name of the game is "Make Texas Go 0-12." You are head coach Mack Brown, and your goal is to submarine the 2008 season for the Texas Longhorns. You do this through horrible coaching, but with the following caveat: your players will try to win with whatever schemes you give them. You can't make it too over-the-top (like only playing 10 men every down or intentionally illegal formations), but if you put a WR at QB the team will go out there and dammit that guy will try his best to complete a 5-yard pass. Or he'll scramble under the slightest amount of pressure and end up taking it the distance. Hm, gotta be careful there...

We're looking for creativity and the closest possible thing to realism - something where the fans would think you're an absolute moron, but not so much that they'd suspect sabotage. Punting on every first down and having an all-kicker/QB defensive unit would probably work, but that's overkill and people will know something's up.

Week 1: Florida Atlantic @ Texas
Ol' Schnelly has already given you this one by calling out Texas' physical toughness. All you've got to do is try and completely prove him wrong. Perhaps you "forget" that the season starts this week instead of next, and completely wear out your players with grueling two-a-days in full pads up until the day before kickoff. Finish with an intensive workout focused on maxing out on the weights Friday afternoon. For dinner, make sure to serve them some special motivational "magic" water delivered straight from the other side of the Rio Grande - what, you mean Montezuma's Revenge is still around?

Week 2: Texas @ UTEP
What is this "other Texas team" bullshit? Who cares, you have Arkansas next week, you need to start preparing for them now. Arkansas had a pretty strong running game, so they should have one again this year - McFadden and Jones are both seniors now, right? Use this game as a tuneup for Week 3, right down to the schemes; no less than eight in the box at all times. Keep it easy on offense, you don't want to hurt anyone.

Week 3: Arkansas @ Texas
A season ago, this would be such an easy one to lose via poor defensive schemes. This year, it'll be a little bit harder, but there's no reason that you can't throw 8 into the box to stop Michael Smith, right? I mean, their QB is Casey freaking Dick, he can't do a damn thing. Screw it, bring both the safeties up and dump 9 in the box. Don't worry about Petrino being a passing coach - there's no WAY he has the personnel. Stay strong with this, too; keep on stopping the run and you'll have this game locked up.

On offense, keep in mind that Arkansas returned both their OLBs, so you want to slant the coverage to the outside, especially on passing downs. Not that you'll want to pass very often; Arkansas is starting all upperclassmen in the secondary, so that's a good sign to avoid it. You have to dominate the ground game first and foremost, but work mostly off of edge runs - they'll be your best bet.

Week 4: Rice @ Texas
This will probably be the toughest game for Texas to lose, because Rice is so bad. To lose this game, we borrow from another sport: Olympic basketball. We all know that in 2006, the Americans didn't even know the names of any of the Greek players who eventually defeated them. You're counting on your defensive personnel not being keenly aware that Rice's star WR is Jarett Dillard, but that they know that Rice has some guy who's a really good receiver. Design all coverage schemes around triple-teaming the other guy and daring the QB to throw to a wide-open Dillard. Refuse to abandon this scheme. Meanwhile, pass on every down, because Rice probably can't stop Texas' running game or passing game, and at least passing has a higher possibility of turnover.

Week 5: Bye

Week 6: Texas @ Colorado
Immediately upon landing at DIA, tell the team that there's more to life than football and go climb a 14er. Hopefully enough key players get altitude sickness. If you don't think that'll work, fly everyone directly into Boulder, but only use one plane that's big enough to go from Austin to Boulder - and land at both those airports. Make sure you bring all your coaches and equipment managers first, and don't fly out until the day of the game. Budgets are tight this year, you know.

Yet another alternative: that Oklahoma game is a big one. Better start getting ready now. Mack's got a lot of options here.

Week 7: Texas vs Oklahoma (Dallas)
Just keep doing what you've been doing, ol Macky. Sans Vince Young, unless the Sooners have another five-turnover outing a-la 2006, this one's an L.

Week 8: Missouri @ Texas
Kick to Maclin and drop seven into coverage. Regarding the latter, the only games Missouri lost last season were against Oklahoma, when the Sooners really put some heat on Chase Daniel to shut down this offense. There's not many secondaries out there who can cover all these receivers (certainly not UT's), so as long as Daniel's not getting sacked their offense should be good. The former is more of an insurance policy in case your offense somehow manages to barely outscore theirs.

Week 9: Oklahoma State @ Texas
Fortunately we can be ridiculous here, because Texas has had a habit of playing like absolute crap against OSU (after consecutive BCS title game losses, the Buckeyes had to give that one back to the Cowboys), getting into a 20+ point hole, then coming back. In fact, Mack Brown, you clearly have the first half of this game figured out already, so let's focus on preventing the comeback. You'll be down big, and time will be limited, so just keep the ball in the air at all times. Blitz constantly on D - we're talking sending the house on every play, Tenuta-style. They won't be able to keep up with that shit; you're on it.

Week 10: Texas @ Texas Tech
This one's easily losable. Just make it an aerial shootout. No way can Graham Harrell stand up against the awesomeness that is Colt McCoy, so keep it up. And throw it deep.

Week 11: Baylor @ Texas
We've been saving up a secret weapon for this one. Allow an unsupervised Friday night visit from Ricky Williams.

Week 12: Texas @ Kansas
This game plan looks a lot like a hybrid between the TTU and OSU game plans; quick-strike offense is the name of the game. Have your offensive linemen do pushups on the sidelines for every time they take more than 5 seconds to get ready between plays. Don't even bother with the huddle - that's hippie bullshit. You've got a gunslinger in McCoy, just let him rip. Five wide, all the time. Guaranteed win.

Week 13: Bye

Week 14: Texas A&M @ Texas
This one seems like it should be tough to lose, but given the last two seasons I guess it isn't. Aggies in general are a fiery bunch, so I'd get em extra riled-up by encouraging some bench players to kidnap that stupid dog. Be aware that the mutt is the highest-ranking officer in the Texas A&M Corps of Cadets, and that you will probably be assaulted by officers-in-training with swords if they catch you in the act. So on that note, perhaps encourage the starters to do it. Quan Cosby hasn't been injured yet, so this would be as good a time as any to fix that problem - he's an upperclassman, so it's time he became a good captain, too.

But what about the game? Dennis Franchione ain't around for you to beat up on anymore, but they still have a strong potential to be an option team. Make sure you don't forget that and plan accordingly; keep your MLB on McGee at all times to make sure he doesn't cross the line of scrimmage and keep at least 8 in the box at all times (that Jovorski Lane is a horse). On offense, all air, all the time. The Aggies won't know what hit 'em.

Now, this gameplan may only result in 4-8 instead of the 0-12 we know and crave; that's why we're not Mack Brown. He should be able to do better than this. And the Longhorns will still be ranked in the Top 10 next year if he does this anyway, so it's not like it really matters.

The Retarded Coach Premium

Maybe I enjoy torturing myself by looking at the past and saying "what if?" I came across this box score today, which is a testament to one of the lowest IQs in NCAA coaching history.

As we can clearly deduce, Simms' last pass went to a CU safety for a defensive score. On the next offensive play, Applewhite's first pass was a 79-yard strike to BJ Johnson. Watching the game from Bloomington, Indiana, a young Dragon said "When I grow up, I wanna throw deep like Major Applewhite!"

Final tally:
Chris Simms 9-17-3-130, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble lost. Of course when I say "zero touchdowns," I'm obviously not counting the one Moorer ran back.
Major Applewhite 15-25-0-240, 2 touchdowns, 27 CU Buffs cheerleaders' panties wet

+130 yardage differential. 42% completions allowed. Five fewer penalties.

THANK YOU CHRIS SIMMS FOR PERSONALLY ACCOUNTING FOR ALL OF THE FOUR TURNOVERS THAT COST THE HORNS THEIR CHANCE TO GET THEIR SHIT ROCKED BY 2001 MIAMI.

Facking cawk.