Your Fake 2009 Rose Bowl

We open the day fucking cold, which is how you know this shit ain't real. It's USC-Penn State for all the marbles and the brains in Pasadena. James is USC, and Russ drew short straw and gets the zombies.

1st Half

We hit a minor snag early on as we realize that Stan Havili is actually academically ineligible and we remove him from the roster. (This is after he catches a 10-yard pass, of course. Ohio State fans are complaining vigorously.) Of course, after this Sanchez lofts a punt-like INT that's returned for about 30 yards. Penn State gets the ball on their own 46.

Royster busts a big 17-yard gain on PSU's 2nd play from scrimmage - 1st and 10 from the USC 39. PSU converts a 3rd and 4 to move the ball to the USC 21. A 5-yard gain is immediately negated by the zombies forgetting what a play clock is ....and hey look, there's the mercy makeup PI call on Kevin Ellison! 1st and 10 from the USC 13. Three plays later Darrel Evans drops it in for a TD. 7-0 Zombies.

In true Joe McKinght fashion, he fucks around behind the line and gets nailed on a 5-yard loss on the ensuing possession (kickoff was returned to the 35). However, Sanchez partially bails them out of it by baiting the CB up for an 8-yard completion ... but big fucking deal. Incompletion forces a punt.

Screen pass to nowhere for the zombies on 1st down and an incompletion on 2nd .... before throwing up another punt-type INT. Trojans get the ball again.

After a mildly successful McKnight run and a sack, Sanchez launches a 66-yard TD pass to McKinght! 7-7 USC.

PSU returns it out to their 34 - first pass to Mickey Shuler for a 12-yard gain. Two successive runs (Royster, Evans) net about 4 yards. 3rd and 6 results in another pass to Shuler for a 7-yard gain - the Zombies are on the move! Well, never mind - holding penalty, but mitigated by a 15-yard completion to Deon Butler. Next two plays - in true PSU fashion, runs up the middle... and they're going for it on 4th! That almost worked, but getting sacked on the enusing play doesn't mean a whole lot. Oops.

I swear, I can't even start writing about USC's possessions before they turn it over. I guess I forgot to mention that PSU came out in Stanford jerseys. Sanchez must be having flashbacks.

Penn State (BRAAAAINS) nails a nice completion to Deon Butler for a quick first down. After some random mayhem that I'm not paying attention to, Evans passes to Royster for another touchdown. 14-7 Brain Maniacs.

The USC offense at this point consists of Sanchez to McKnight. Seriously. Just rinse, lather, and repeat. Just imagine there's more of them here. Oh shit! Finally! Well, that was a completion to Stafon Johnson. Um...never mind. FG attempt misses. We're at halftime.

2nd Half

PSU has a nice opening kickoff return. 1st play from scrimmage - picked off! As usual with USC, we're just going to assume it's McKnight with the ball. One play .... two plays ... whoa! QB sneak with Sanchez! Okay, back to McKnight ... three plays ... wait, handoff to Stafon Johnson ... four plays ... five plays .... Sanchez sneaks it in! 14-14! I should note that the QB sneak was right by McKnight, so that gets half-credit.

Penn State is dangerously close to ripping wholesale from Tressel, but they're at least getting first downs - and by first downs, I mean first down. Two sacks prety much killed any chance that drive had of working.

McKinght watch is on! One play ... two plays ... three plays ... (seriously, this is as exciting to watch as it is to read about. This shit ain't my fault) ... four plays ... five plays .... wait, he isn't in this play! (incomplete, of course) ... dropsies in the end zone! Fourth down (hint: it's going to McKnight) - completed to McKnight (six plays) for a 15-yard completion ... rush by Stafon Johnson; apparently McKnight was tired, but he's back now ... seven plays ... holy shit! It's a pass play NOT to McKniight! Of course, that results in a 4th down and a 26-yard FG for the Trojans. 17-14.

Penn State rocks a 16-yard run from scrimmage before getting hung up on a 2nd Royster carry and a 3rd Royster carry. By the way, I'd like to take this time to remind readers that there are indeed more than two guys on either team. Don't tell them that, though. PSU actually goes for it on 4th down! However, the conversion is not to be, as Kevin Ellison picks off his 2nd pass of the game.

Did you know that Ellison and McKnight have the same number? I bring this up because it's the ONLY FUCKING THING THEY'RE RUNNING. Jesus. Here we go again. One play ... two plays ... three plays ... QB sneak for a first down only .... four plays ... five plays ... six plays. We can't count higher than that on this drive, since that was a USC TD. 23-14 Trojans - yes, it's not 24-14 because he fucked up the XP. HA! Should've had McKnight kick it.

Derrick Williams! Kick return for a TD! 23-21 Trojans, but the ensuing onside kick goes for naught.

Here we go again. One play ... Stafon Johnson runs for 13! And he runs again! Fuck, McKnight's back in ... two plays .... three plays (well, pass was knocked down at the line of scrimmage, but that shit counts) ... turnover on downs! Should've been to McKnight.

Now PSU has a minute to drive about 45 yards for a game-winning FG! First play to Williams for a first down - on the PSU 48. Turnover! Picked off by Kevin Eillison again.

We'll just assume the remaining plays go to McKnight. (That's a total of [x] plays this drive.) This is also the end of the game - Trojans win, 23-21.

That's a total of 18 carries and 14 receptions for McKnight - out of 45 plays, 32 were to McKnight. You thought I was kidding?

Preview: Ohio State @ Southern Cal

In ten seasons, Ohio State and USC have been the two most frequent BCS Bowl participants along with Oklahoma. Ohio State has racked up a 4-2 record, including 1-2 in championship games with an upset of Miami in 2002. USC is 5-1 overall, the most BCS bowl victories of any program, including a 1-1 record in championship games with a blowout of Oklahoma in 2004. Notable, USC was awarded an AP championship after their Rose Bowl victory over Michigan following the 2003 season. These two programs have played in the last four BCS championship games, although they've also lost the last three.

Amazingly, the two programs haven't met since 1990, when USC came away with a 9-point victory in Columbus. (after destroying the Buckeyes in LA the season before)

Most people are picking the winner of this game to play in the national title game. There's a good chance for the loser as well, if they finish 11-1. (Yes this includes Ohio State, despite what some sportswriters are saying. These same people argued that OSU didn't deserve to be ranked #1 at the end of the 2007 regular season, then promptly ranked them #1.)

So let's get on with it.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State is a conservative offensive team who wins games by pounding the ball on the ground, playing unmovable defense, and quietly winning the kicking game. Tressel Ball 101. Ohio State is an extremely experienced team - returning nine starters on each side of the ball.

The 2008 defensive group is truly amazing. Led by James Laurinitis, this bunch has essentially been playing together for two complete seasons, and in those 28 games I have only seen one truly bad defensive performance. (vs Florida... vs LSU, a lot of that can be blamed on the offense as they only gave up 326 yards but had bad field position most of the game due to turnovers and penalties) Malcolm Jenkins is considered one of the best cornerbacks in the country as well. Two games into this season, the Buckeyes are surrendering an average of 164 yards and 7 points per game with 6 turnovers forced (4 interceptions in last week's game!) - indeed, defense is the reason OSU is 2-0 right now rather than 1-1.

The Ohio State offense is very hit-or-miss, and missing Beanie Wells could make that worse. Maurice Wells is a good inside runner and Brandon Saine has great speed as a former track star. The Bucks return four starting offensive linemen and this unit has been a dominant force so far. The receivers are dependable but not stellar, with Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline being much more effective when the ground game is already rolling and requiring safety help to stop. Quarterback, however, has been the position of inconsistency. Todd Boeckman was statistically the best QB in the Big Ten last season, but turnovers cost the Buckeyes in losses to Illinois and LSU in 2007. Already against Ohio U, Boeckman fumbled a snap that led to Ohio U's only points in the second half - a defensive score. He is an accurate short passer but his throws seem to fall apart beyond 20-25 yards. Not much has been seen or Terrelle Pryor, but I expect him to be a wild card up Tressel's sleeve.

OSU has already hit seven field goals this season in 8 attempts, more evidence that the kicking game is strong. Though punting has been average (40.0 average), punt returns have been a strong area for the Buckeyes - averaging 19 ypr compared to just over 2 ypr allowed, and already having returned one for a TD.

Southern Cal Trojans

USC is an explosive offensive team who plays both big and consistent, complimenting their beastly defense. Though the genius of Norm Chow is gone, the USC offense attacks opposing defense through such wide variety - power running, speed outside running, precision passing - that it seems like once you finally figure out a scheme to stop them, then next series they're out there running something completely different but equally effective.

The USC defensive group returns seven starters from a unit that was among the elite in 2007, and they started this campaign by allowing a mere 32 yards rushing (187 total offense) against Virginia. Three of the new starters are in the front seven, and this is where USC recruits best. Led by Rey Maualuga, this group has consistently been among the toughest to run against for years under Pete Carroll. Taylor Mays is one of the nation's best safeties and they are not easy to throw the ball against either.

USC's only real offensive question was how 4 new starting linemen would perform. Against a Virginia team starting four new faces on defensive line, they completely dominated. Mark Sanchez looks to be a nice upgrade at the QB position from Booty, with more velocity and range on his throws. The receivers he'll be looking for aren't the beasts that USC has had in the past, but this is still a very strong group. At halfback, USC has three legitimate stars who can come in and play different styles, from the bruising attack of Stafon Johnson to the speed of Joe McKnight.

It's hard to grade the USC punters and kickers as they've hardly seen any plays due to their extreme offensive efficiency, but from past experience we know that David Buehler is a reliable kicker. The return groups have looked average so far.

Breakdown

When USC has the ball:

Running

Statistically, Ohio State has had the #1, #15, and #3 rushing defense from 2005-07. Each of these groups has been led by a stellar linebacking corps and an underrated, deep defensive line. Against USC, they will face a rushing offense that is among the nation's best regardless of what the statistics say (their ability to pass in a balanced offense hurts the raw numbers). Last season, USC averaged nearly 5 yards per carry on the ground and it is their depth that is possibly their biggest weapon here, wearing down defenses with three fresh backs. Ultimately, this battle is going to come down to USC's offensive line. Ohio State has both skilled and fundamentally sound linebackers, and if the defensive line gives them penetration then it will be a long day even for these talented backs. However, OSU's linebackers aren't known for their speed, and if USC's o-line wins the trenches, then OSU's linebackers might not be able to seal plays from a positional disadvantage.

Edge: Even

Passing

When USC lines up with a fullback or two tight ends, I don't like Patrick Turner and Vidal Hazelton getting much done against this secondary, not with Jenkins as such an elite cornerback. Though while the receivers might have trouble getting open against this great coverage, Sanchez has shown both incredible power and accuracy in his throws, and should be able to thread the ball into the slightest opening.

Ohio State has shown susceptibility to spread offenses and USC does have the ability to bring in three legitimate WRs with David Ausberry as their third, and OSU's base defense will have trouble stopping this. Additionally, Joe McKnight has great hands and is a threat in the passing game.

A wrench that could be thrown into things is the unknown of USC's pass protection. The University of Virginia simply was an inadequate test. Again, Ohio State has a great front seven, and pass protection is tough for a group that has little big game experience together. I don't expect this to be an issue - USC's offensive lines have performed so well for so many seasons - but if we're looking for a wildcard, this is the biggest unknown for the USC offense vs OSU defense matchups.

Edge: Slight USC

When Ohio State has the ball:

Running

Like Ohio State, USC has had an elite running defense the past two seasons, ranking #9 and #4. Ohio State has the nation's top runningback on their roster, but the question is will he play? Obviously this is a huge factor that will swing this matchup. On the lines, you have a great OSU offensive line vs a USC defensive line that has two new starters. Just those factors, Ohio State wins. But then you have to factor in the linebackers, the heart and strength of this USC defense. That swings the pendulum in their favor. Beanie Wells is a good enough back to overcome the edge USC has in their front seven vs the OSU front five. Maurice Wells and Brandon Saine? I don't think that they will have nearly as much success.

A factor that might come into play late is the approx 30 lb differential between the average USC defensive lineman and the average OSU offensive lineman. We expect both teams to rotate players, the USC defense probably a little more often, so I don't think this will show until the 4th quarter. But if the game is close or especially if OSU has the lead in the 4th, this could be an advantage for the Buckeyes to exploit.

Edge: Slight OSU

Passing

Frankly, I do not expect Ohio State to have much success throwing against this USC secondary. Todd Boeckman puts too much air under his deep passes and Taylor Mays is great at closing on the ball and making plays. Furthermore, Boeckman is not the quickest nor the best decision-maker. Ohio U brought delayed blitzes with defenders finding lanes to get to the QB. He needed to quickly find the open man and make the Bobcats pay for opening holes in their coverage, but did this on far too rare occasions. Pete Carroll will be bringing far more sophisticated and creative blitzes than Frank Solich did, how will Boeckman respond to that? Not well is my guess.

That said, USC's corner situation is strong but not excellent, and the OSU receivers run good short routes, where Boeckman is also very accurate and doesn't really need to think on the fly. This becomes more important if OSU is creating yards in the ground game and preoccupying the USC linebackers who are very strong in coverage. Brandon Saine is also a solid receiver, should he get more playing time due to Beanie Wells' status.

Edge: USC

Pryor/Spread(?)

For those keeping track, we've got an even matchup, two advantages for USC, and one for Ohio State. Even if OSU wins the kicking game, which they have decent odds of doing, USC also has home field advantage, so the Buckeyes have ground to make up! If it's going to happen, it has to be with Terrelle Pryor running 2-4 offensive drives and getting positive results. We're not going to see a freshman come in against USC and just lead the team to victory, but providing 10 points could be the difference in a close defensive game. If it's a shootout, OSU is toast anyway.

If you have watched much USC football the last four years, dual threat QBs are about the only thing that has really given this defense trouble. (Fresno State game in 05 aside) In their 2004 opener, VT's Randall avoided the rush with his feet and made huge plays - indeed, USC was fortunate that the Hokies killed themselves with procedural penalties. Of course we remember Vince Young's epic Rose Bowl performance against a USC team in their offensive prime. Then there was last season's late loss to Oregon, in which Dennis Dixon turned in a strong enough option performance to overcome USC handling the Ducks' receivers and being +120 yards through the air.

A plus about the Pryor spread packages is that it minimizes the impact of Wells' injury, and for that reason we may end up seeing as many as six drives led by the freshman. Texas ran the VY option better with speedy Jamaal Charles than they did with Cedric Benson. I would really like to see Pryor running option with speedster Brandon Saine in the backfield, even if Wells is available, as a threat to turn the corner and make a big play. This would also allow Wells to rest, as he is absolutely essential to the offense when Boeckman is in the game. Like Young (unworthy as the OSU freshman may be of this comparison), Pryor should actually be the #1 option on his reads, picking up yards in consistent chunks. Saine should be used to punish the defense for over-committing to Pryor or for committing too soon.

Edge: Ohio State

Injury Update

As I finalize thoughts on this, word has come in that OSU star running back Beanie Wells is listed as doubtful for this weekend's game. Obviously this is going to have an impact, but let's not forget that Ohio State's running game is halfway based on their mammoth offensive line and the Buckeyes are deep at the RB position. This makes the game more of an uphill battle for the Bucks, but not unwinnable if the players who are available bring their A game and if the gameplan takes full advantage of all weapons at the team's disposal.

Pick: USC

The Rose Bowl Presented by Shitty Selection Committees

It's the Granddaddy of Them All - and like most people's granddaddy, it's also the cantankerous old guy who isn't aware that the family reunion is now held in California instead of Minnesota and whines about it for three months straight when he's reminded of it. Every year. Now imagine if this granddaddy started yelling at one of your cousins because he/she had the audacity to marry someone of a different heritage than you and loudly berated you about it between October and December.

That's kind of like the Rose Bowl leadership. Only things we're not including is 1) granddaddy has a $13-million-a-year payout and 2) granddaddy gets to invite the family members to the reunion, too. So while nobody was surprised that Illinois got invited over more (Arizona State) deserving (Missouri) teams (Texas), we were all just kind of disappointed. It's like when granddaddy got together with Uncle Bob and started bitching about your significant other's side of the family, and why can't they be more like your family, only they actually are like your family and granddaddy can't figure out that what he thinks is your significant other's family is actually ...MTV. Why's granddaddy have that much power, anyway?

At least USC gets to come back to the Rose Bowl. Considering they play so far away, it's good to know they can make the trek all the way down the street for this game. But it doesn't count as a home game for them, so don't make the mistake of thinking that. They had a good season, especially given the number of injuries they struggled through ... provided you ignore the loss to Stanford. At home. Other than that, they played great - and they have to get bonus points for ABC openly stumping for USC to make the national title game the last Saturday of the season. Stay classy, ABC.

Still, it's not really Illinois' fault they play in the Big 10. They do own the only win over Ohio State all year, and even though the rest of their resume is pretty much the Who's Who of Who Cares, they do have that. They also have a loss to Missouri, who made out pretty well for themselves getting an BCS Bowl invi...wait, what's that? Oh, Orange Bowl committee. For shame.

Illinois (by Coach Lawrence)

Not only had Illinois averaged a lowly two wins per season from 2003-06, but they had won a mere one conference game in those four seasons. So while Illinois was absolutely the wrong choice for the Rose Bowl, you can't fault the kids for having one of the best surprise seasons of the year.

2007 started off on a low note with a loss to Missouri, cutting the deficit from 24 to 3 but eventually falling short. At the time Mizzou hadn't earned much national respect, so it was considered a mediocre team's win over a weak team. Illinois won their next three games against fairly poor opposition, then shocked the nation with consecutive wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. Perhaps equally shocking was their 10-6 loss to Iowa the following week. After predictably losing to Michigan then beating Ball State and Minnesota, the 7-3 Illini went into Columbus to face the 10-0 Buckeyes, #1 in the nation. Illinois played perfectly behind an opportune defense and great decision-making by QB Juice Williams to steal a 28-21 victory - the only loss of the season for Ohio State. Finishing the season with a big win over Northwestern, Illinois was 9-3 and second in the Big Ten. Had they only eeked out one late score against Iowa, they would have been the Big Ten champions! Nonetheless, the Illini had actually won more games in 2007 than that did in the previous four seasons put together. Though not historic, it was certainly one of the most memorable seasons in the recent history of the program.

Illinois has been slowly stockpiling top national talent with an emphasis on speed since Ron Zook took over as coach. The offense is led by the crown prizes of their last three recruiting classes - QB Juice Williams (soph), RB Rashard Mendenhall (jr), and WR Arrelious Benn (fr). The spread option ground game is where it begins, and Mendenhall averages 127 ypg and 6.2 ypc to go along with the 64.5 ypg (5.2 ypc) contributed by the legs of Williams. Overall Illinois racks up 226 yards a game on the ground, fifth in the nation. Benn contributes 50 ypg receiving as this side of the offense averages just 157 ypg total, but he is also the only player on the team to score a touchdown on a kickoff return - one lone score to give the Illini an early lead over Penn State.

Defensively, Illinois is strong against the run giving up 114 ypc and 3.3 ypc but average against the pass (241 ypc, 119 rating). They rely on their ballhawking duo Kevin Mitchell and Vontae Davis, leading the team to a total of 16 interceptions, to neutralize the passing yardage.

Keys to Victory:

Let's face it - USC is a tough team for anyone to match up against. They have four solid runningbacks, led by Chauncey Washington and Stafon Johnson. They have a highly recruited QB who puts up decent numbers and a trio of pretty good wide receivers, but it's tight end Fred Davis who is the biggest receiving threat. The offensive line is good in both aspects of blocking. The defense is excellent against both the pass and the run - especially against the run, where they're 4th in the nation.

In so many ways, USC is like Ohio State. The OSU run defense is one of just three better than the Trojans, and OSU tops the nation in points allowed, yards allowed, and pass yards allowed. Ohio State has the best runningback on either team, but doesn't go 4-deep like USC. Their passing game has underachieved and cost them a game, but it's not something you can ignore by any means. Therefore, I would design a gameplan for beating USC based on how Illinois was able to beat Ohio State.

Keys to Victory:
1) Williams must control the game.. and the clock. Against a vastly more talented team, the proven gameplan has been effective use of possessions and shortening the game. Against OSU, Williams threw for 4 TDs and ran for 70 big yards to convert late 3rd downs. It'll take an effort like that, particularly since USC is so balanced defensively. Over the last four seasons, the dual threat QB has been one of the only things to give this team troubles defensively, so Williams will have to exploit that.

2) Big calls for big plays. Illinois used an 80 yard run, a pair for 30+ yard passes, and a 25 yard run to get yardage in chunks against Ohio State while otherwise grinding the ball methodically. Mendenhall and Williams will have to make something happen on their own a few times, but the staff can help by setting up a misdirection or trick play to get a few cheap ones.

3) Big turnover differential. USC's offense has only gotten better from October through December, particularly in terms of Booty's consistency and obviously with recovery from their injury epidemic playing a big role. Outscoring them on equal possessions seems tough, so let's try to get an effective possession advantage of 3 (what it was against OSU). Unfortunately, this may mean a bit of hoping that Booty makes some mental mistakes. If and when he does, Illinois needs to come up with the ball to take it away from this powerful Trojan attack.

USC (by Coach Pendley)

When healthy, USC is among the best teams in the country. Of course, had they stayed healthy and not lost to Stanford, they’d probably be playing in the national title game. Losing to Oregon with Dixon in the lineup is no reason to be ashamed. Of course, aside from the win over Arizona State there’s no real quality wins there, either. Oregon State is a good, but not great, win, and beating Cal and Nebraska looked a lot more impressive before they started playing the games. Still, going to a game where USC has been 22-8 in (I think I counted that right) isn’t terrible when you’re hoping to end the season with a win.

When healthy, QB John David Booty played well – not the Heisman-caliber level the position traditionally gets, but well anyway. Obviously, the counting stats aren’t going to be there if he missed three games with an injury, but the 232.9 ypg passing and 20/9 ratio are still solid, if unflashy. TE Fred Davis was a weapon all season, with nearly 800 yards receiving on the year and 7 TDs. WR Patrick Turner was supposed to be better than he was on the season – he was supposed to score a lot more than 3 TDs and average 51 yards a game, but the talent is certainly there.

On the ground, USC has a potent multi-back offense that runs for around 185 yards a game. It’s led by Chauncey Washington (81 yards a game, 9 TDs), Stafon Johnson (57 yards a game, 5 TDs), and Joe McKnight (34.5 yards a game, 2 TDs). Of course, all those guys are also excellent talents, which help matters a bit. Each of those backs has gone for at least 80 yards in a game, and both Johnson and Washington have run for over 100. They’re all capable of assuming the primary back role, which is …kind of unfair, really.

On defense, USC finished 4th in the nation against the run – and unlike other teams that had a “good” pass D because they had no secondary, USC finished 7th in the nation against the pass, too. And yes, that includes a 10/8 ratio and a passer rating of 100 – which is the equivalent of saying that USC transformed QBs into someone just slightly worse than Taylor Bennett. Surprisingly, USC has only a -1 TO margin on the year – but that’s mainly thanks to – no surprise – the Stanford game.

Keys to Victory:
1: Marginalize Juice’s rushing. This is ten kinds of irony for USC, but the key to shutting down Illinois starts with preventing Juice from becoming a second rushing threat along with Rashard Mendenhall. That means USC will need to go over the game plan from the Oregon game, as Illinois runs a similar offense; unfortunately for USC, Dixon ran for 76 yards in that game, so they’ll need to improve their plan for stopping him. This is doubly critical because Williams isn’t that great a passer (13/10 ratio, 121 QB rating), so USC might even want to bring eight into the box until Illinois proves itself through the air.

2: Three-back usage. I hinted at this up there, but USC will likely still enjoy an advantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage; in this case, that’ll be needed to plow open holes. Between Washington, Johnson, and McKnight, USC has plenty of backs to wear down the Illinois linebackers. Leman is the most active of the LB corps, but they could all be hurting after 3 quarters of strong rushing.

3: Exploit the matchups. Illinois doesn’t have the best pass defense, and the Big 10 doesn’t have any TEs like Fred Lewis – Beckum comes closest – but Booty will need to make accurate passes to really be successful. He should have a big game, but either Turner or Vidal Hazelton will need to come through on the side to take some pressure off of Lewis.

4: Killer instinct. USC is a decent time-of-possession team, averaging 32 minutes a game, but getting about 35 – preferably by running the ball at Illinois and daring them to stop you – would be golden. Don’t forget that nobody expected anything from these guys for a reason.