The 2008 season of college football has come to an end, and once again we're left with the uncomfortable feeling that the BCS screwed up the title game matchup but managed to get the #1 team in spite of themselves. As the talent pool increases and with the total number of scholarships reduced, expect this endgame to become the norm - we've got somewhere between four and eight (four this year) teams with some kind of argument that they should be champions, and on the other side we've got Jim Delany. Thanks again, Jimmah.
1. Florida
When we got online to update the Overall BCS Rankings (post coming soon), Chris and I both agreed on this season's #1, and disagreed on #2-4. In the hour of geekery that ensued, the statistics actually pointed Florida as a very clear #1. Efficiency, personnel, turnover margin, pythagorean expectation, strength of schedule -- it all favors the Gators.
Actually this chart summarizes our position of the top 5 nicely, although we chose to make one change due to a perceived talent differential. We're ranking the best teams, not necessarily the most deserving teams (Utah would be in the top 2 of that criterion).
In the end, we felt highly enough about this Florida team to rank them #9 in BCS history. Congratulations, Gators, on an outstanding season.
2. Texas
Colt McCoy had a historic season in 2008, besting Daunte Culpepper's completion percentage mark by nearly 3%. This led to one of the highest 3rd down %'s in the country for the Longhorn offense, a unit that didn't score as quickly as the vaunted Sooner offense but may have been harder to actually stop. Texas also got great production out of special teams, with Shipley getting return TDs in their two biggest games and the punter putting his limited time to excellent use. While the offense may have been functionally the best out there to go with a top 5 special teams, the defense finished just inside the top 20 statistically -- even taking quality of offenses faced into account, they're probably not top 10 caliber. The defensive line is top-notch and the corners are strong, but the linebackers are inconsistent and the inexperience at safety showed in the closing minutes of their lone setback.
3. USC
The USC Trojans have not only the best defense of 2008, but probably one of the top 5 defenses of the BCS era. A pedestrian offense only by this program's lofty standards, this stable of runningbacks would be the envy of any team out there. However, we don't feel Mark Sanchez is the consistent leader that McCoy and Tebow are, and the strength of schedule is not there.
4. Utah
With a dominant victory over Alabama, Utah became the only "mid-major" to make our top 40 BCS teams, coming in at #19. While everyone at this blog favors a playoff that would give this team a chance to move on up to the top, when we looked at the numbers it didn't add up for the Utes. So while a championship vote wouldn't be a vote we could cast in earnest, we give major credit to this sqaud for knocking off every team they were given the chance to face, and for having the greatest season in the last 11 years by a team from outside the so-called big six.
5. Oklahoma
When you put a Tennessee fan, a Texas fan, and an Ohio State fan together, you're sure to generate an anti-Sooner bias. (SEC bias, rivalry, and the latter needs OU's BCS failures to outshine the almost equally-frequent failures of _Buckeye._) This Oklahoma team lost two games by 10 apiece to our final top two teams and completely annihilated every other team they faced, which does include five teams on this list. While it's a 5th straight loss in the BCS, losing by 10 to the all-time BCS #9 is nothing to be ashamed of, so Sooner fans needn't hang their heads over this one.
6. Alabama
After a 12-0 start, Alabama's discipline and preparation couldn't quite overcome the talent differential when facing two top 4 teams. However, both losses were competitive, so this doesn't warrant a large drop. The Tide are a QB recruit away from contending for national titles.
7. Penn State
Penn State was a team who kind of ran out of gas late in the season, losing to Iowa and getting hammered by USC. Let's not forget that they really lowered the boom on Oregon State and Michigan State, not to mention beating Ohio State in Columbus. Clark and Royster will be a solid foundation for 2009.
8. Ohio State
Ohio State fans will once again be left wondering what would have happened had they not lost Beanie Wells to injury and played Terrelle Pryor as the lone QB. At least they were using both for the majority of the game. With the offensive gameplan once again falling apart against a top-tier opponent, the Bucks got productivity from their freshman QB's scrambling ability.
9. TCU
With BYU's legitimacy dropping, TCU's top ten claims were bolstered by beating Boise State and by Utah's performance in the Sugar Bowl. Oklahoma clearly showed that this team cannot compete with the high-powered passing attacks that dominated our top 5, but they're solid against the run and don't beat themselves.
10. Boise State
The pollsters saw fit to tank Boise State for losing one game this season by one point against a top ten team, having the audacity to drop them below even an Oregon team they beat on the road and finished with a significantly better record than. Not us. The Broncos had a great season, a 17-16 setback against TCU in a thrilling bowl game hardly negates their 12-1 final record.
11. Georgia
Blowouts against both Florida and Alabama show a gap between #11 and the top ten. But aside from a bizarre loss to Georgia Tech, this team did well enough in their other games, including a nice bowl win.
12. Oregon
In retrospect, it's amazing that the Ducks finished with 10 wins despite having QB issues in midseason. We find the Holiday Bowl win as indicative of Oklahoma State (loss to every top 15 opp faced) as it is of Oregon, but two of their three losses are also understandable.
13. Ole Miss
Unfortunately Ole Miss hasn't learned to be consistent yet, but their wins over Texas Tech and LSU were no flukes. Jevan Snead brings them the level of QBing they've missed since the Eli days, only this time around they're surrounding him with more talent.
14. Texas Tech
In retrospect, TTU benefited from playing Texas at home at the end of the toughest month of football any team played this season. But there's really no question that they're better than Ok State - which also makes them better than anyone else not already listed.
15. Oklahoma State
The #15 ranking is indicative of the complete dropoff in college football after the top 14. Oklahoma State got a lot of credit for beating Missouri and playing Texas close, but we see that in fact they lost to every legitimately good opponent they faced. Robinson, Bryant, and Hunter are a fearsome trio, but the Cowboys will need to be more than that to move any higher next season.
16. Virginia Tech
The Orange Bowl really was the laughingstock of the BCS, as there's a half-dozen teams who played outside the BCS who could easily handle those two. Alas, VT was king of the short bus, which pretty much describes their games on Dec 6 and Jan 1 equally.
17. Oregon State
Oregon State won pretty much the worst bowl game played in 2008. That said... um, they won. Which literally means that they scored - ie, they went 1/2 in FG attempts while Pitt was 0/1, which was enough to negate the 3 giveaways to 2 takeaways. This team beat USC? We find the Stanford loss a lot less surprising.
18. Cincinnati
ACC fans rejoice - this season, you weren't the worst conference. Lacking WVU to hold them up, the Big East clearly fell on their face which resulted in these turds stinking up the Orange Bowl. Ladies and gentlemen, your Short Bus Puntout runners up.
19. Missouri
Here's a team that's a lot stronger on paper than on the field. And here's a season where all the talent is consolidated into a dozen-some odd teams.
20. Iowa
Despite a stronger finish, they lost to Illinois and Northwestern, both of whom Missouri beat. This team only deserves mention because of the upset over Penn State.
Note that we've decided to keep this to a top 20, because nobody else is deserving of ranking. Better luck in 2009!
Sunday, January 11
College Football: 2008 Final Rankings
Wednesday, October 29
Week 9 Top 25
Looking around, there's depressingly few teams truly deserving of ranking. The top ten is great, even if #10 is a bit unproven. (don't discount winning at Oregon though) It's around #15 that you can see how quickly things drop off. Practically speaking, everyone after 15 is #25... and even then, in name only. We're looking for anyone who can turn in a solid performance next weekend, and they'll probably be ranked. Seriously, anyone. This means you, ACC - although we understand that this task may be more difficult for you than most.
1. Texas
Top ten opponents stream into Texas, and one after another they fall to the Horns. Texas has now faced a #1 team, a Heisman-leading QB, and the best rushing attack in the country, all in consecutive weeks. This weekend they will face the nation's top passing attack and best WR on the road. Few if any teams could survive this stretch unbeaten.
The Horns ranks 29th in scoring defense, but considering that they've faced the #2, 4, and 6 scoring offenses, that's really not a bad stat. The line is key as they hold opponents to the third-lowest rushing totals nationally, forcing Texas's opponents into an aerial duel with McCoy. The secondary is also an improved unit.
2. Alabama
But Alabama's had good defense in the past; the problem was always that they got hung out to dry. The difference between this team and others is that they pack enough punch on the other side of the ball to give the defense a breather and put a modest amount of points on the board. Like Saban's championship Tigers, Alabama employs a three RB system that grinds out 200+ ypg. Freshman WR Julio Jones is the only real receiving threat, but the big tight end Nick Walker gets his share of catches to occupy the middle.
(Bonus points: Alabama is responsible for the hit of the year, falling victim to an Eric Berry 360-degree (really, 540-degree) hit last weekend.)
But the offense was exposed by this same Buckeye team for the snake oil that it is. They were completely unable to move the ball against an Ohio State defense whose problems against real offenses have been well documented, and that makes me think that Penn State's season plays out in one of the following ways:
1) Go 12-0, face a Big 12 team in the championship game. Lose 59-20. Colt McCoy/Graham Harrell/Sam Bradford sets a championship game passing record.
Eh, maybe I'm too much of a cynic. YAY BIG TEN FOOTBALL!
Since their bizarre one-point loss to Mississippi, Florida has been on an absolute tear. winning each game by 30 or more. In fact, Mississippi was the only team who's even managed a close score against UF, and the Gators' defense has been downright nasty. They're 6th in scoring - up from 41st a year ago. Solidly in the 'teens against both run and pass, and the secondary has produced a 5:10 ratio of TD:INT.
Offensively, the good news is that two UF backs have each gained more ground yardage than Tim Tebow. The bad news is that they've still combined for just 81 carries to his 82. Some of these are sacks, sure, but Tim is still carrying more of the load on offense than Meyer would like. This overreliance indeed cost Florida their lone loss of the season, as everyone on defense knew exactly what was coming.
The Gators face Georgia this weekend, and a win here could start their discussion with the voters of forgiving that odd loss.
5. Texas Tech
Well, it was about damn time the Red Raiders finally decided to show up. They were kind of the de facto Top 10 undefeated team, but after a complete dismantling of Kansas last week they've finally done something to show they're worth ranking in the Top 5. This week, on the other hand, is going to be one hell of a showdown, and Chris is excited about not getting to see this game and getting a rebroadcast of Duke / Wake Forest instead.
6. USC
USC was barely left out of the top five, and it was pretty much entirely because we couldn't leave Texas Tech out of the top five for two teams with a loss apiece. And while the Red Raiders have gotten off to a shaky start, they've played a few teams the quality of Oregon State and managed not to lose to any of them.
So that kinda explains why they are where they are. But what about who they are? (what?!) USC is the only team in the country allowing fewer than 10 ppg, at a measly 8.1! With seven games under their belt, the Trojan defense has given up over 10 just once, and that abberation of a game is responsible for 27 of the 57 total points they've surrendered all season! USC's defense is #2 against the pass and #10 against the run, which is pretty tough to be in the top ten for both categories. The stars are Rey Mauluga and Taylor Mays, but really everyone on this defense is good.
The inconsistencies have been on offense. Some weeks this unit looks unstoppable, even when they're playing someone other than Washington State or Ohio State. Against the Arizona schools, they looked flat, and they showed up a little too late against Oregon State. Overall, this is the #14 scoring unit in the country, so it is more a question of consistency that capability, as clearly they are able to put points on the board. Mark Sanchez is turning the ball over too many times, and despite the fact that USC is +3 in turnovers, back when they were playing for championships their turnover margin per game was greater than 1.
Nonetheless, a very strong team.
7. Georgia
Where the fuck has this kind of effort been all season? Stafford was efficient and Moreno ran roughshod all over a seemingly good LSU defense. Sure UGA gave up a bunch of points, but three TDs came after the game was all-but-over. How this is the same team that got killed by Bama before squeaking by Tennessee and Vandy, we're not sure. That's also why we're keeping them below USC.
At this point, the only thing we can really say is that UF-UGA is a must-watch game. This has really been two different teams at various points of the season... only, unlike last season when it was like a spark went off midway through, this time around it's been more like a weekly coin flip. Which side lands up is probably going to determine how the Dawgs are viewed when it's time for bowl selection and final rankings, as Florida has been punishing every team they've faced since OMU.
The biggest shafting in the week-to-week rankings happened to Oklahoma, who beat Kansas State by 23 but dropped 5 spots, including being passed by a team who lost last weekend! (Oklahoma State) How's that happen? For starters, Florida, Georgia, and Texas Tech all won convincingly. USC continues to play great defense, which we value better than great offense... unless the QB is completing 107% of his passes which is clearly impossible to stop. Oklahoma State... well, they played Texas closer than the Sooners did despite the game being in Austin. And they've beaten Missouri. And they run the ball and play defense. Good enough for me.
11. Utah
12. TCU
13. Missouri
Again, it's a matter of playing two tough opponents, but the Missouri of last season would have found a way to win one of those games. Or so we think. One way or another, something's missing from this team and we think that's consistency.
God, Tulsa almost made us sweat last night, playing way too close against UCF before finally deciding to open up and score on 850 consecutive possessions in the second half. That sums up Tulsa in a nutshell - ridiculously fast-scoring offense, ridiculously explosive offense, ridiculously on-fire defense in a very literal sense, ridiculously easy schedule, ridiculously crazy impending blowout in a BCS bowl if Boise State and Utah spit the bit.
15. Ball State
On one hand, WVU probably doesn't deserve to be ranked this high. On the other hand, they pretty much straight dominated and wore out an Auburn team that still kind of has a defense (although that may vary with time as they get used to playing 40 minutes a game). Also, they were kind of left for dead after their craptastic opening, but it looks like Bill Stewart finally figured out to let Pat White run instead of pass.
That being said, WVU is still in the driver's seat in the Big East, although upcoming back-to-back games against UConn and Cincinnati will help to figure out just how far that'll carry. If recent form holds at this point, WVU is going to lose by 20.
25. Ohio State
Buckeye. Of course, they won't lose another game this season, and they have tiebreakers over Michigan State and Minnesota, so we're probably going to see Ohio State in the Rose Bowl again. You know what that means:
Don't Cry Out Loud II: Don't Cry Out Louder. (Well, technically Don't Cry Out Loud IV, but we're not getting into the Friday the 13th-level sequels until we have to.) If you wanted to see what Ohio State would have looked like facing USC with Terelle Pryor and Beanie Wells, tune in to see pretty much the exact same thing happen again.
25. LSU
This is punishment for two stinkbombs in a row; at this point, LSU has beaten everyone who's clearly better than them but gotten rocked by two teams that are clearly Top 10 material. We're not totally skeptical yet, but they're on probation until they do something else. The matchup against Alabama in a couple of weeks will be a key indicator that they may be better than we thought .... well, either that or if they get outright Giggity'd later.
25. BYU
25. North Carolina
After a bizarre slip against Virginia, the Sextoncannon's back on course with an outburst against Boston College that was largely keyed by the defense. Closing the seasons with at least two wins is almost a sure thing; three or four are possible.
We want to point out that Minnesota is 7-1 and has a very winnable final four games. All of us here at Left Field Bluffs are rooting for the Gophers to go 11-1, for Ohio State to drop some random game, and Minny to go to the Rose Bowl. Preferably while two Big 12 teams ranked ahead of them are skipped over because Jim Delany wants his goddamn tradition preserved. And Minnesota does a great job of continuing what Illinois started last season, namely getting blown out by USC.
25. Oregon
25. USF
26. Florida State
Look, don't think Florida State is good. So far, they've beaten 2 1-AA teams, a neophyte Miami team, NC State, Colorado (meh), and Virginia Tech. Sure, that VT game looks good on paper until you realize that a) Tyrod Taylor only played one snap and b) Sean Glennon didn't make it out of the third quarter. In other words, they beat a team that was playing its emergency QB - a converted WR at that - by only 10. Ye gods. Hopefully Georgia Tech can beat the shit out of them and we can move on to more sane things.
Watch list:
Sunday, October 19
Week 8 Top 25
1. Texas
Is there any doubt? Colt McCoy completed 29 of 32 passes (91%... and on the season, he's 81%) against Missouri as the Longhorns jumped out to a quick 35-3 halftime lead, which by the way was the final score of the Ohio State-USC thrashing. Buckeye. An offense that had gone 3-and-out just twice all season did it three times in its first four drives against Texas. The second half was the shootout we were expecting the entire game to be, although the UT second string defense played for the final few drives. So what's next after a showdown with Oklahoma and a beating of Missouri? How about a matchup with unbeaten BCS #6 Oklahoma State! Yay Big 12 South schedule!
2. Alabama
The Tide are still at #2 because we remember they manhandled Georgia, while Penn State still hasn't played anyone good. It's certainly not because struggling to beat Kentucky and Mississippi in consecutive home games is impressive by any stretch. The Tide must impress again at Tennessee, because Penn State has a chance to really show us what they're made of this weekend...
3. Penn State
... as their next game is at Ohio State. Buckeye. PSU played their first craptastic half against Michigan but still won the game by 29, so we can't be too hard on them. Through 8 games PSU has still surrendered over 20 points just once and still been held under 35 just once. They're dominating everybody, winning each game by at least 14. This week's showdown between the futures of the Big 10 - Terrelle Pryor and Darryl Clark - is the Nittany Lions' statement game. Win here, and they have an easy finish to the season with Iowa, Indiana, and Michigan State.
4. Oklahoma
Offensively, OU played yet another excellent game to hang 45 on Kansas. This season they've scored at least 35 in every game played. The problem is that their defense gave up 31 to a team who's clearly a step below where they were last season. OU has to be worried that Jake Sharp shredded their run D, though props to the secondary for holding Todd Reesing below 60% passing and picking him off twice.
5. USC
While 69 points allowed is technically Wazzou's season high, they've given up 66 twice and 63 once, so we're not reading too heavily into that game. Come to think of it, how did these guys even beat Portland State? Anyway... what can be said about USC is that their defense has given up over 10 points just once all season. In a year where quarterbacks and offenses are dominating everywhere, here's one team who's doing it the good old fashioned way. Defense wins championships, and if a few teams falter USC will be a strong title contender with that monstrous defense.
6. Florida
Florida had a bye week to prepare for Kentucky, and by that we mean look ahead to Georgia.
7. Oklahoma State
Robert "Cream" Griffin III was held to his worst performance of the season since becoming starter in week 2, as the OSU defense had a second straight standout performance. Next up: Texas!
8. Ohio State
Here at Left Field Bluffs, we have embraced the horror. Ohio State showed that there is a clear gap between the top two and the bottom nine, and what that means is that unless it's possible for both them and Penn State to lose in their matchup this weekend, we'll probably have a Big Ten team in the BCs Championship again. A Big Ten whose resume reads either: a) beat Ohio State or b) beat Penn State and lost to USC. Yeah. To be fair, Terrelle Pryor is finally starting to look like Troy Smith did in 2006, and by "like Troy Smith did in 2006" I mean "don't cryyyyyyy ooooooouuuuuuuuuuttt lllloooooooooooouuuuuuuddd!" It's coming.
9. Georgia
ARP ARP ARP! And yet another uninspiring offensive performance against mediocre opposition. Is everyone else glad we probably won't end up with preseason #1 vs #2? (that would be Georgia vs USC) On the other hand, it couldn't be much worse than what we've gotten the last two years.
10. Texas Tech
TTU leads 38-25, 17 seconds remaining and the clock is in motion. There's nothing A&M can do to stop it, and in fact the play clock has been turned off. Mike Leach calls a flagrantly unnecessary zone read play for one final "fuck you" touchdown, probably just because Harrell at one point commented that the spread option is a pretty sweet offense. This is why we love Mike Leach. Additionally, at this point there's got to be good reason to leave a Big 6 unbeaten out of the top 10, and beating Nebraska is more impressive than anything Utah or Boise have done.
11. Utah
The wins over Michigan and Oregon State look less impressive as the weeks go by, but look who's in the MWC driver's seat now!
12. Boise State
The Broncos continue to win comfortably and with defense holding an opponent to 7 or less in five of six games played so far.
13. LSU
Struggling to beat USC-East is something a lot of SEC teams deal with, which is probably why Phil Steele keeps thinking that eventually those breaks will go the Cocks' way, that eventually they'll turn that 6-6 into 10-2. Note that along with the struggling comes the beating because, as of yet... and it hasn't happened. LSU has a chance to climb back into the top 10 against Georgia/
14. South Florida
With over two weeks to let their loss simmer, USF came out refocused to destroy Syracuse.
15. TCU
Did we underrate TCU, overrate BYU, or all of the above? One way or another, that game wasn't even close. Granted they've essentially beaten a team who themselves have beaten nobody, but we're suspicious that BYU is in fact legit and that this does in fact make TCU reasonably good.
16. Tulsa
Going into the 4th quarter, Tulsa needed just 30 points to hit 100 and they pulled the first string offense. WHY? That surely would have allowed them to leapfrog TCU, just for the coolness factor.
17. Ball State
As the fightin' Balls improve to 7-0 without their best player, we once again saulte the defense. 7 points total in the last 2 weeks. We also note that this is the last team deserving a rank higher than 25, so:
25. Georgia Tech
"To win the ACC, one must run a flagrantly system offense regardless of your personnel" sounds truer this week than ever as GT became the first ACC team to reach 6 wins. We're really looking forward to seeing this patchwork option face the Georgia defense at the end of the season.
25. Missouri
Mizzou has lost to two top 10 teams in two very different ways, but this last loss really casts them into doubt. Texas completely owned the first half and left us wondering if the two advertised elite teams were the UT offense and the UT defense, because we certainly didn't see anything else deserving of mention.
25. BYU
Max Hall was ineffective, the defense was torn apart, and the running game was abandoned as TCU kept kicking long after BYU went down. Their BCS hopes are now gone, but BYU can still win the conference if TCU slips up.
25. Pittsburgh
A convincing road win at Navy marks two consecutive weeks of solid play, and in the Bitg East that's good enough to put you at the top of the standings!
25. Minnesota
We still need to put a few more teams here to have 25, and they are 6-1 with lone loss to Buckeye.
25. Boston College
Oh god.
25. Oregon
Quack quack-quack quack-quack quack quack quack-quack-quack quack-quack! QUACK-QUACK! (done to the tune of USC's "Fight On")
25. Michigan State
We argued about this spot more than any other, with the two sides being that a) Northwestern is 6-1 and didn't get the shit kicked out of them on Saturday vs b) MSU rolled NW just eight days ago, and if they had played against 2006 Ohio State redux on Saturday, they too would have been blown out. Frankly, neither team deserves it. Somebody else please step up, please.
Watch List:
Note that these teams really suck, as they aren't yet worthy of mention alongside Boston College.
Arizona
The Maryland of the west coast, U of A found ways to get Cal to play to their level yet choked a game against New Mexico. Consider that they're 5-2 with some horrible losses, but their next game is USC. Obviously they're at least be looked at, just in case the unthinkable happens.
Cincinnati
Chris is solidly on the Brian Kelly bandwagon... and you know what, fuck it.
Florida State
ACC: Stop Hitting Yourself
Northwestern
Do they really not play Penn State? Fantastic.
Virginia Tech
ACC: Stop Hitting Yourself
West Virginia
An impressive win against Auburn gets them in. Please god, we don't want to be forced to rank some random ACC/Big Ten team like Northwestern just because they can't all lose this weekend.
Sunday, October 12
Week 7 Joint Rankings
Week 3 was circled on our calendars, but it was week 7 that delivered the best games so far. Both battles of Big 12 unbeatens ended up going down to the wire, and three teams in the top 5 were upset. Toledo pulled a shocker (or at this point, is it?) over Michigan thanks to a generous bounce off the crossbar, Arkansas and Mississippi State pulled off huge SEC upsets in nail-biters there, and the SextonCannon kept Jim-may! out of the rankings. In all, a great weekend... not least of all because we got to say FACK YOO SOONAHS! YOO FACKIN SACK! YOO AH NAWT THE BEST TEAM IN THE HAHTLAND, YOO FACKIN ANKLEGRABBAHS! Thank you, Tommy.
1. Texas
After dominating five questionable opponents, the Longhorns finally had an opportunity to prove themselves against an Oklahoma team that nearly everyone had at the top of the rankings. As expected, Sam Bradford outplayed Colt McCoy, but Bradford's passing was the only thing Texas didn't shut down while McCoy got help from Chris Ogbonnaya, Cody Johnson, and Jordan Shipley on special teams. Speaking of special teams, not only did the Longhorns get a kickoff return TD immediately after falling behind 14-3, but they were also 3/3 field goals and tacked on a two-point conversion. In a day where Missouri lost in part due to missed FGs, don't underestimate this.
Additionally, credit the Texas defense for shutting down the Sooner offense over the final 27 minutes. After trailing 28-20, Texas gave up just one more score and that drive needed a roughing the punter penalty at midfield.
2. Alabama
The Tide had a bye week and remained at #2, but not without seeing a new #1 and #3 around them. Bama's victory over Georgia remains a strong statement.
3. Penn State
The Nittany Lions opened up the offense to thrash Wisconsin in a road victory. Penn State is seven games into their season and have given up over 20 points just once, themselves scoring less than 40 just twice. A 3-3 Illinois team is the best they've faced, but aside from Ohio State and Michigan State, they do not have a particularly tough remaining schedule either.
4. Oklahoma
The Red River Shootout was such a great game that we can't really penalize the team that barely lost it. Sam Bradford showed that he's the best pocket passer in the country, torching the Texas defense but also throwing a pair of interceptions - one on a meaningless heave as time expired. Of greater concern would be the complete lack of a running game. I'm not reading too much into the kick coverage units being a disaster, as Texas's four kickoff returns that didn't go for a TD averages under 18 ypr, and the Longhorns had a negative total punt return yardage.
5. USC
Joe McKnight and the USC defense were enough to beat Arizona State, which is fortunate because Mark Sanchez had a pretty awful outing. Still, the defense nearly equalized the turnover game despite USC giving away five, and in fact they outscored the opposing offense 7-0! USC's defense is in the same league as Alabama's and Penn State's - arguably better - but Sanchez has been mysteriously absent from two games now.
6. Florida
If we were ranking based on week 7 alone, Florida would be in the top 3. But ah yes, we remember some pretty poor performances in other games, and sixth feels about right. What we saw is what Tebow and the offense are capable of if the line provides protection - which we really didn't expect to see against a tough LSU front four.
7. BYU
The Cougars were obviously looking ahead to their Thursday night trip to TCU (and admitted as much) but still dominated New Mexico 21-3. There's not a lot to take away from this one, but we're looking forward to seeing them play in Fort Worth in a national broadcast.
8. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State's questionable schedule led many to doubt their status as an unbeaten. No longer. The Cowboy defense picked off Chase Daniel three times and their special teams kept Jeremy Maclin in check all night. Sure, it helped that the conference's most accurate kicker had a 1-3 night, as Missouri actually outgained OSU, had a higher yards per play, and penalties/turnovers were even. This was a tough road win, give the Cowboys credit for pulling it out.
9. Georgia
The Bulldogs failed to turn a +249 yardage, including a 148-1 edge on the ground, performance into a comfortable win, but at the end of the day we'll take the victory. Stafford was intercepted twice and Moreno held to 3.7 ypc as the offense struggled yet again. However the defense made moving the ball nearly impossible, and both the kicking and punting was excellent.
10. Utah
Dominating Wyoming, Utah moved to 7-0 and reminders that there's more to the MWC than BYU. The Utes have posted four road wins and two wins over BCS teams, good enough to move into the top ten.
11. Missouri
Chase Daniel turned in his worst performance of the season in a heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma State. Credit the Tigers' defense for giving them multiple chances to win at the end, but on this night their star QB could not come through. Derrick Washington's running was completely shut down and Jeff Wolfort missed two easily makeable field goals! The bright spot here is that despite playing so poorly, UM still had the chance to win. It's unlikely that they'll turn in a similarly sloppy effort when they travel to Texas this Saturday.
12. Texas Tech
Yet again, the Red Raiders turned in a half-effort, and this time it nearly cost them. After allowing Nebraska to make a 14 point comeback, the Red Raiders missed the extra point in the first overtime! Fortunately the defense came up with an interception to prevent Nebraska from winning on the strength of a missed kick.
13. Ohio State
For those who think Pryor and Wells would have made the difference against USC, we invite you to review this game in which Terelle Pryor and Beanie Wells ran the Buckeye Spread. Nothing doing. On the plus side, it looks like the OSU defense will shut down every offense they see in November; it's a small question of stopping Michigan State and a larger question of shutting down Penn State's "Spread HD."
14. LSU
In a battle of the last two BCS champions, it was the Gators fans who got to sing "Don't Cry Out Loud" as Tebow repeatedly burned a strong LSU defense. As Auburn continues to tumble, we give less and less credit for that ballsy win a few weeks ago. LSU needs to close October on a high note against South Carolina and Georgia.
15. Boise State
Boise State won an odd game over Southern Miss in which all 31 points were scored in the second quarter. On to less trivial matters, though the Broncos have played just five games, their defense has surrendered 10 points just once - in a road win at Oregon. Of the potential BCS Busters, this is the strongest group on that side of the ball.
16. Kansas
Special teams allowed Colorado to stay close through three, but ultimately Todd Reesing was too good for the Buffs to stop. This is clearly not the Kansas team who went on to win a BCS bowl last season, but they are still a good team.
17. Virginia Tech
In their bye week, Virginia Tech looked better than ever. A!C!C!
18. South Florida
USF had a week to let their loss to Pitt sink in before facing.... Syracuse.
19. Michigan State
Javon Ringer was the workhorse yet again as the Spartans handed Northwestern their first loss of the season. Since losing to Cal, MSU has looked strong against weak opposition. This weekend they host Ohio State and have a chance to prove themselves as a legit top 25 team.
20. North Carolina
The Sexton Cannon thrust himself into the end zone North Carolina overcame a -150 yard deficit to beat Notre Dame. Jimmy Clausen threw three touchdowns this game and two of them were to his own teammates!
21. Tulsa
The nation's #1 offense overcame three turnovers by putting 602 yards together in all, winning a closer-than-expected game against SMU. When that many yards and 37 points is an off week, you're still pretty good.
22. California
The Bears had a week off to heal before travelling to Arizona to face a Wildcats team that can't be happy about losing to Stanford.
23. Ball State
The BSU offense clearly misses Dante Love, but their defense has stepped up in the meantime. The Cardinals are 7-0 and should expect double-digit wins this season.
24. Vanderbilt
Reality rained on Vanderbilt's parade as this week's lesson was that you can't get outgained in almost every game and expect to win. Indeed indicative of how lucky they've been getting, Chris and I both called the upset along with Phil Steele, which really makes it not an upset.
25. Minnesota
Give the Gophers credit, they're 5-1 with their only loss being to Ohio State. True, Minny did make it look like the Buckeyes actually have an offense, but to the defense's credit they held Juice Williams completely in check until it was all but over at 20-6 in the 4th quarter.
Keep an eye on:
Cincinnati
True the Bearcats are 5-1 with a road loss to Oklahoma, but it's also tough to argue for a team whose statement win is 13-10 at home over Rutgers. This weekend they travel to UConn looking to earn some respect.
Georgia Tech
We're still amused by the possibility of a team winning the ACC simply by installing an option offense, but GT did not look good in squeaking by Gardner-Webb!
Navy
Following a loss to Duke, we'd written Navy off, but they responded with road wins over Wake Forest and Air Force. Pitt has at least won their games since the opener; if Navy pulls off another tough win they may be sitting at 24 or 25.
Oregon
The team again did not look good as they barely got past UCLA, as Masoli completed just 26% of his passes for 42 yards! Oregon really needs the week off to take a look at their quarterback situation and recover from numerous injuries.
Pitt
After being embarassed by Bowling Green, Pitt has rebounded to reach 4-1. They have road games at Navy and at Notre Dame in the next three weeks, ample time to prove themselves.
TCU
It's rough being the #3 team in the best non-BCS conference (better than the ACC, Big East, and the Pac 10 if it didn't have USC). TCU lost to a tough Oklahoma team for their only blemish, and should they upset BYU this weekend they would easily jump back into the rankings.
Wake Forest
Not only has Wake beaten nobody of consequence, but they don't even face Virginia Tech or North Carolina! We presume that they will waltz into the ACC Championship game completely untested and with 10 wins whether the team's any good or not. Speaking of December 6th, the ACC gives us a real treat that afternoon as Duke travels to Michigan. Tipoff 3:30 eastern.
Tuesday, October 7
Week 5 Joint T25
1. Oklahoma
Sam Bradford is the best QB in the country, in the opinion of these blogwriters. No disrespect to Daniel, Harrell, McCoy, Tebow, or the few others worthy of comparison, but the big difference is Bradford's cannon of an arm. The ratio of 18 TD to 3 INT is even more impressive when you consider that he's averaging 11.4 ypa and his last five TD passes have all come from 40+ yards. (the only one under 50 came while rolling out to his left, so we'll forgive the fact that it wasn't from beyond midfield) The ability to stretch out a defense vertically like that while maintaining high accuracy is one of the best attributes a QB can have, especially in a balanced offense like Oklahoma's which features a powerful running attack to compliment the aerial assault.
2. Missouri
Missouri jumps to #2 because they have been consistent week in and week out. Thanks to Illinois losing to Penn State, they don't really have the same signature win that Alabama does (although this week's opponent, Oklahoma State, looks legit). However the QB, overall offense, and special teams are both among the national elites. What really stood out last weekend, though, was the killer instinct. With 3 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, Missouri led Nebraska 38-10... usually, this becomes run out the clock and play prevent time for the Tigers. Instead, they hit a 43 yard TD run, force a turnover, then throw a TD pass on the next play - all in the span of about a minute. That's the mentality, at least, of a champion.
3. Alabama
It has been said that you can really only get the best out of your team - it's "A game" - five or six times a season, tops. If that's the case, Nick Saban has certainly chosen the right weeks to get that top level performance - against Clemson and Georgia, both of whom were ranked in the top 10 when the Tide faced them. Unfortunately, there have been flat-out fail games against weaker opposition. Last weekend's surprisingly close game with Kentucky was one of them. Games at LSU, vs Auburn, and the possible SEC championship will require an A game effort.
4. LSU
Auburn's failing offense continues to cast the meaning of that victory into doubt, but for what it's worth we've come to expect LSU to have a strong defense, Charles Scott is proving himself at RB, and they've finally settled on a QB. That keeps them here for now, and beating Florida would cement their legitimacy.
5. Texas
Texas has absolutely done everything they could have been asked to, yet a schedule whose toughest opponent was Colorado casts things into doubt. The Longhorns are one of ten teams in the country allowing under 12 ppg, and that unit will really be put to a test against an Oklahoma team who scored under their season average when they destroyed Baylor 49-17. A victory would mean some leapfrogging for sure, but a solid performance shouldn't see them fall too far.
6. Penn State
The Nittany Lions' offense derailed against Purdue, but it was the defense that won the day, holding one of the more explosive offenses in the Big Ten scoreless until the final minutes of the game. It was pointed out that the last time PSU started out 6-0, they finished 11-1. That's nice. Also the last time PSU started 6-0, Texas won the national championship. I can live with that.
7. USC
When Oregon drove the length of the field to take a 7-0 lead on USC, I momentarily wondered if the mighty Trojans could actually go 0-for-Oregon. Eight hundred yards and 96 points later, that thought had long been washed from my mind. The Oregon State game may have re-awakened a sleeping giant, and the rest of the Pac 10 must be sweating this.
8. BYU
Apparently not holding the same burning red hatred for Utah State as for UCLA, the fightin' Mormons called off the dogs at 34-0 this weekend. Much like the '84 team, this open offense is gunning all over everyone, and much like that great team, the schedule is aboslute bunk. We like the way they're playing, but it'll be tough for them to crack the top 5 before facing Utah.
9. Georgia
The Bulldogs had a week off to let their humiliating loss to Alabama sink in. We can expect them to come out eager to redefine their image against Tennessee, but to really turn the corner, the line is going to need to block a little better for both Stafford and Moreno, and more passes are going to have to start going AJ Green's way.
10. Ohio State
Chris and I differed greatly here, in that I wanted to put Texas Tech at #10 while he thought that a team who hadn't beaten anyone tougher than Kansas State didn't deserve a spot that high. In the end he's right, but dammit I will fight against this as long as I possibly can. We all know what's going to happen is that OSU is going to plow through the Little Ten once again, and everyone (in Ohio) will be saying how they would have beaten USC if only Pryor had played the whole game and Wells had been healthy. And it'll work. The sooner you accept this fact, the sooner you can begin to appreciate how awesome the Don't Cry Out Loud video featuring Sam Bradford throwing two 50+ yard TD passes per quarter is going to be.
(No idea what I'm talking about? Go to youtube and search for ohio state don't cry out loud. You'll thank me later - and be sure to watch both versions!)
11. Texas Tech
Since the Nevada game, the offense has shown improvement every week, which means by late October 60 points will be considered a poor outing in Lubbock. This week's game vs Nebraska will be out first primer to guage how good TTU really is.
12. Florida
Don't let the score fool you - the Gator offense once again looked assy even against the lowly Arkansas, up until a 21-point 4th quarter explosion. Beating LSU is critical for UF to re-establish themselves as both conference and national contenders.
13. Utah
The Utes squeeked by Oregon State on the fault of poor special teams play by the Beavers. Considering that this was a team who just knocked off USC, we'll take it. We'll definitely take holding Jaquizz Rodgers to "just" 100 yards on the ground after what he did 9 days before.
14. Vandy
We don't want to take away from yet another Commies' win, but right now it looks like anyone who can break 10 points against Auburn has a good chance of winning that game. Don't underrate great special teams' play and an offense that doesn't turn the ball over. These guys should be hanging around the rankings all season.
15. Boise State
The offense looked as wide-open as ever in an easy Wednesday night win.
16. Oklahoma State
Crushing Texas A&M was just what we'd expect out of a team in the middle of the top 25. Though the Aggie defense is perpetually overrated, scoring 50+ on them is a sign of offensive legitimacy.
17. South Florida
The last hope of the Big East fell in craptacular fashion against a Pittsburgh team who... um... well, who beat Syracuse by 10 the week before in what for them qualifies as a statement win. Yeah, not buying the 4-1 yet, Panthers. This offensive letdown was everything we've sadly come to expect from the inconsistent play of Matt Grothe.
18. Kansas
Coming back from 0-20 was nice, but why are you even down by that much against Iowa State? And once they scored 28 straight, how did it come down to the final play? This was an ugly outing by Kansas; that plus the USF game has left real questions about this defensive unit.
19. Virgina Tech
They're getting outgained by 20 ypg, they've only scored 3 more offensive TDs than their opponents, and yet they're 5-1 (2-0). Welcome to ACC "football." They're not good enough to run through their own conference 8-0, but they are clearly the "class" of the group.
20. Tulsa
With an easy 63 point outing, Tulsa's offense moved further ahead of the pack.
21. North Carolina
The Sexcannonton didn't get it done through the air, but the UNC special teams came up big (another mark of a Butch Davis team) to route UConn. Handing the Huskies their only loss in dominating fashion gets the Tar Heels on the radar. Unfortunately it appears that beating Notre Dame will be more of an accomplishment this season than it was last, so the Heels can confirm this ranking with a home win this weekend.
22. Ball State
Not only is the word "Ball" in their name (we think it refers to the male anatomy, not the "quarterback" who singlehandedly kept Calvin Johnson from becoming an earlier Michael Crabtree), but they're 6-0 and have won all their games by double digits. The schedule's not super-quality, but it does include Navy. This team has the talent to run the table.
23. Illinois
For Juice Williams to set a total yardage mark at Michigan is the flagrant slap in the face we love to see for a Wolverines' team in a transition period. Though they've got two losses, both were against top 6 teams, and both were competitive games.
24. Cal
Having proposed the Black Hole Theory of how Maryland routinely gets killed by horrible teams (MTSU, Virginia) while somehow getting decent opposition to play to their level (Cal, Clemson), we've decided that we're tentatively okay with the loss to a crappy team on the other side of the country. Since that anomaly, Cal's picked up where they left off with a blowout win over Colorado State and a solid conference win against Arizona State. We're not sure when Jahvid Best will get back, but the week off before facing Arizona has to help.
25. Michigan State
Since opening the season with a 10-point loss to Cal, they've gone on to win five games including giving Notre Dame their only loss. Yes, MSU is the reason Weis and Clausen are not ranked #1 in the AP right now, and for that we thank them.
Keep an eye on:
Arizona - After a bad loss to New Mexico, they're winning conference games with ease.
Auburn - They're more here for explanation. Right now, it looks like Auburn would have no chance of beating a team who can score 20 on them. The offense clearly has not bought into (or really even implemented) Franklin's system, so they either need to do that or go to a run-heavy pro style attack. Whatever they're trying now... is just awful.
Georgia Tech - Everyone's talking about Wake Forest, but I'm looking at the ACC team that doesn't appear to just be freaking lucky to have their record. GT won a close game to give Boston College their only loss, lost a very close game against Virginia Tech, and have won every other game easily. I don't know at what point I'd start considering them (next game: Gardner-Webb) but if they make it past Clemson they will technically be 7-1, fwiw.
Minnesota - We think they're a complete farce, but a win over Illinois would put them at 6-1 and deserving of a ranking.
Northwestern - Beating MSU would be a statement.
Notre Dame - Dammit, we have to be fair. Or at least, as fair to them as we are to Ohio State. If Notre Dame beats North Carolina this weekend, that will be added to a list of victories that includes Michigan and Purdue.
Tuesday, September 30
September Top 25
What started out with a reasonably chalk four weeks (it's not an upset when Phil Steele calls ECU over WVU) went completely nutso in week 5, and now we're wondering if another 2007 is in store. We thought this season was reminiscent of 2004; it might more resemble 2003 - when USC lost in week 5 before turning it on to close out the season on fire, Oklahoma ran through the Big 12 looking unbeatable until championship week (hello, Missouri?) and a Nick Saban-coached team powered through the SEC behind a better-than-expected defense, game managing senior QB, and group of talented freshmen running backs. Of course the real LSU is still in contention as well. No, we know better than to start looking at bowl matchups in October, although pointing out these similarities is fun nonetheless.
1. Oklahoma
When Oklahoma faced off against then-#24 TCU, the Horned Frogs had the #1 statistical defense in the NCAA. And it took a unit like that to hold the Sooners to 35 points - the only time all season they've been held under 50. Sam Bradford has compiled a 209.1 QB rating, is sixth nationally in passing ypg, and averages 11.2 ypa, which as far as I can tell is third nationally among QBs with over 50 attempts. His 16 TDs are third in the nation. Manuel Johnson has emerged as the receiver of choice, as evidenced by his 3 TD catches (each over 50 yards) against TCU. Overall the Sooners are fifth nationally in scoring offense and 13th in scoring defense - the latter being impressive because OU has faced two decent offenses.
2. Alabama
Rooooolllllllll Taaaaaahhhhhde!
In five games, Alabama has looked impressive in four - none moreso than their 41-30 defeat of preseason favorite Georgia which started out with the Tide scoring 31 points on five first half possessions then coasting to victory. John "Holmes" Parker Wilson hasn't been asked to do much, and that may be a big reason for the offense's success. What the Tide have done is rack up 215 ypg on the ground for a +160 yardage differential! Glen Coffee has been the workhorse, averaging just under 100 ypg, but the top three rushers all average over 5 yards per carry. This rush defense is ranked third nationally despite facing James Davis, CJ Spiller, and Knowshon Moreno. (yes, we recognize that Spiller and Davis combined for 8 carries... still, when they did run the ball, they averaged just 2.5 yards a pop) Moreno in turn was held to 3.8 ypc, again not touching the ball nearly enough. These low rushing totals can in part be attributed to Saban's pro-style approach to defensive line play - linemen covering two gaps rather than the typical one in college. We recall that in 2003, his LSU Tigers gave up just 2.4 ypc and got significant pressure out of the front four. Perhaps opposing offenses recognize the futility of running against Alabama, as the Tide face the fewest opponent's rushing attempts per game. Offensively, Alabama isn't outstanding in any one area statistically, but they do rank 19th in scoring and 17th in rushing despite facing a couple of solid-to-outstanding defenses.
3. LSU
The LSU Tigers have shown their trademark fearlessness that made them the 2007 national champions. Against Auburn, Les Miles called halfback passes and threw the ball in the red zone late in the game when a FG would win it (Auburn - remember this from a year ago?) and the result is a 4-0 mark. Charles Scott has become the feature back, averaging 133 ypg on the ground and contributing another 9.2 in receptions. Though the QB situation has been somewhat volatile, Jarret Lee has emerged as the #1 guy through his performance against Auburn, and Brandon LaFell has been a strong go-to receiver after having questionable hands early in his career. The defensive front four is downright scary, completely shutting down Ben Tate and Brad Lester despite Auburn making a real effort to run the ball - overall, they yield under 70 ypg on the ground.
4. Missouri
You won't find a scarier offense than the one at Missouri. The Tigers rank second in the nation in both points and yards per game, and they're getting production from a number of different guys. Chase Daniel is completing 76% of his passes for a shade over 10 ypa, with a 12:1 ratio. He's been sacked just once and contributed heavily with his legs against Illinois. Jeremy Maclin averages just under 100 ypg receiving, and has scored six touchdowns in receptions, rushes, and kickoff returns - barely missing he end zone on a punt return against Illinois, but advancing the ball inside the 20 to set up the TD that really put the game beyond doubt in the third quarter. Chase Coffman has emerged as an outstanding tight end, averaging 94 ypg receiving, and with his size, hands, and surprising athletic ability, he is almost impossible to cover. The surprise for this unit has been Derrick Washington, a punishing force in the ground game averaging 90 ypg rushing and 20 ypg receiving. The defense, however, has shown prolonged lapses in focus which has been an issue for this team in the past.
5. Texas
We knew they'd be 4-0 in September; what we didn't know was that they'd look so good doing it. I said in the preseason that the barometer for success in 2008 was Colt McCoy. Thus far: 80% completions, 10.2 ypa, 14:1 ratio, 2 sacks taken, 278 yards rushing (8.2 ypc), 4 rush TD. He now leads the Big 12 is passing efficiency rating. Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley are playing as well as any receiver tandem in the country, which is impressive considering the receiver tandems in this conference alone. What's lacking is a third receiving threat, and at some point in their remaining (brutal) schedule, McCoy cannot be the only player averaging over 50 ypg on the ground. The defense also looks sound, allowing a shade under 11 ppg and they are second in the nation in rush defense, but keep in mind that the opposition has been extremely weak.
6. Penn State
The Nittany Lions continue their tradition of strong defense, ranking 12th in scoring and 14th in yardage. The group is very well-rounded, ranking 28th against the pass and 15th against the run. Offensively, Daryll Clark has really opened up the unit that now averages over 500 ypg and is 4th in the nation in scoring at 49.8 ppg. The lack of a primary receiver is noted, but on the ground Evan Royster (103 ypg, 7.8 ypc) and Stephfon Green (63 ypg, 6.8 ypc) and a tough duo to stop, and even Clark is chipping in 26 ypg on the ground. Penn State with a good offense is scary.
7. BYU
Speaking of scary offenses, look out for Max Hall and BYU. Hall has compiled a QB rating of 180.8, averages 321 ypg, and has a 15:2 ratio passing despite facing two Pac 10 opponents in their four games so far. TCU was not able to handle Oklahoma's passing attack, and Utah has not looked as strong as BYU thus far, so these guys are looking like a very strong candidate for a possible BCS buster with UCLA and Washington out of the way. The Cougars have also not allowed a single point in their last two games, with their only weak defensive outing coming against Washington and the mobile Jake Locker. BYU does not face an offensive player of that caliber for the rest of this season, so their defensive outlook is also very strong.
8. Georgia
Thus far, Georgia has not turned in the kind of performance we were expecting after a strong close to the 2008 season. Getting dominated by Alabama was bad, but we can expect a bad week out of any team, and Saban's teams are known for dominating line play. But what about the poor performance against South Carolina, a team completely lacking an offense yet were within a few yards of tying the game late in the 4th quarter? What about Matthew Stafford's relatively low QB rating (for top 10 caliber teams) and Mohamed Massaquoi still unable to average even 50 ypg despite defenses now having to account for standout freshman AJ Green? Knowshon Moreno has been strong, but the offense has been unable to turn him into a 100 ypg back, to say nothing of the yardage that a back of his caliber should be averaging. This team seems like they're sleepwalking a bit, and as Alabama showed that is not going to cut it in an extremely tough SEC.
9. South Florida
USF has had some up games and some down games, but managed to walk away from September 5-0. First let's talk about the good. The Bulls rallied from a 20-3 deficit to take a 2 TD lead on a tough Kansas squad, saw Kansas tie the game, but were able to come back to win by a FG. In this game, Matt Grothe rose to the occasion, found A.J. Love and Taurus Johnson for a pair of TDs and ran another one in himself, the latter being a critical drive to end the first half as KU had just extended their lead to 17. However, Grothe has yet to be consistent week-to-week, and the offense has yet to develop even a 50 ypg rusher! Indeed these problems were evident as USF got into a close game against Florida International, and had to overcome a -2 TO performance against UCF which also included two missed FGs. We'd like to see a better performance, but frankly what they've played like so far is good enough to win the Big East.
10. USC
We knew the Virginia game was a red herring, as UVA has since struggled to beat Richmond and been blown out by Duke. However, the Trojans' performance on both sides of the ball was completely dominant against Ohio State, and playing at that level there are very few teams who could hang with SC. Then we saw another USC, one probably buying into the hype surrounding them and unable to stop a 5'6" running back who gashed their proud defense, while the offense showed up only after halftime and could not muster enough points to make the comeback. We know this team is extremely talented, but we're not sure that Mark Sanchez is the kind of leader that Chase Daniel, Colt McCoy, or even Matt Grothe is - so we're not sure how the Trojan offense is going to respond in such games. On the other hand, the defensive leadership of Rey Mauluga cannot be questioned, and his group came out fired up in the second half of the team's losing effort.
11. Ohio State
We really don't like placing Buckeye this highly, and clearly there's a gap between 10 and 11 here. However, the offense is much better with Terrelle Pryor, who leads the team in total rushing yards and averages just under 60 ypg despite limited opportunities early on. Now that the offense has been handed over to him, and now that Beanie Wells is healthy and back on the field, we think the offense will be okay. I don't know what to think of the defense after watching them get gashed by USC, but remember that this group has also been gashed by Florida and LSU, but they thrive in conference play. Penn State and Illinois are the only other Big Ten teams fielding potent offenses this year (Illinois no defense though), so Buckeye is in good shape through November.
12. Texas Tech
Graham Harrell is quietly leading the NCAA in yards per game passing but has not turned in the monster numbers we'd expect given the Red Raiders' September schedule, and that is why we have ranked this group outside the top 10. Phoning it in beats Nevada, but the offense will need to be sharp for this team to stand any chance against Oklahoma and Texas, as the defense has not improved by a whole lot since last season.
13. Florida
Miami exposed it, and Ole Miss capitalized on it. Despite Tim Tebow, and for all the speedy backs and receivers this team is loaded with, they have a sub-par offensive line by SEC standards. In a conference known for tough, physical defenses, that's not going to get the job done. Florida's own defense has played well in three of four games, but the offense does not seem capable of providing the explosive effort needed when the Gators' D does have an off week, as they did last Saturday. LSU and Georgia are looming on the horizon - two teams with excellent defensive fronts and quality secondaries.
14. Utah
After upsetting Michigan then rolling UNLV and Utah State, Utah's pace has slowed a little. It's only a little - they did still beat both Air Force and Weber State, but had more difficulty than we'd like. Still, they are 5-0, so that's that. Brian Johnson has performed well for the most part, although his ratio is a bit low at 8:5. Matt Asiata has stepped up to lead a two-headed rushing attack along with Darrell Mack that averages 177 ypg - the Utes havea very physical attack for a midmajor. Defensively this group is untested, but that's about to change as Oregon State comes to town this week.
15. Auburn
Install the spread, get a mobile QB... the more things change, the more they stay the same. Auburn still seems incapable of putting together a quality drive, despite having a wealth of talent at tailback. This group is averaging just 13 ppg in their last three games - all against SEC opponents - and that just will not get the job done in such a tough conference. Credit the defense for allowing just 6 TDs in 5 games, as their job is made all the tougher by the fact that the offense cannot stay on the field.
16. Kansas
Whatever small dropoff Todd Reesing and the offense have had isn't the real concern here. Kerry Meier has stepped up to become the team's leading receiver, completing a brilliant transition from QB, and Dezmon Briscoe continues to be a big target. The defense, which was statistically in the top five a season ago, clearly misses Talib and McClintock. The Jayhawks are 18th in scoring despite facing four extremely easy opponents, and in their top 25 matchup against USF, the defense was unable ot stop Matt Grothe once he got going.
17. Boise State
The unbeaten Broncos jumped onto the national radar when they defeated the Oregon Ducks in Autzen in a game not as close as its final score. Defense leads this team as, through 11 quarters they had given up just 27 points before Oregon tacked on a few scores late in the game. Kellen Moore has performed well at QB as defenses continue to stack against Ian Johnson, averaging 74 ypg rushing.
18. Oklahoma State
In compiling a 4-0 record against a very weak schedule, Oklahoma State's offensive balance has forced us to take them seriously. Kendall Hunter averages 154 ypg rushing to lead an offense that gains 340 yards per game on the ground alone, tops in the nation. Zac Robinson has a QB rating of 192.4, and his favorite target Dez Bryant is pulling down 148 ypg in receptions. Bryant has also returned a punt for a TD. We're suspicious about the defense's abilities, but with a talented trio like this on offense, they are going to be tough for anyone outside the top 10 to deal with.
19. Vandy
The Commies have arrived! Vanderbilt has knocked off South Carolina and Ole Miss to get off to a 2-0 start in SEC play, 4-0 overall. Vanderbilt runs a combination of zone read and triple option, but their Achilles is the complete inability to pass the ball, throwing for just 80 ypg and having QB ratings below 130 despite defenses generally disregarding their passing game. However, Chris Nickson has proven an effective force leading the offense, and the defense has come up with big stops such as their goalline stand to preserve the victory against Ole Miss. The schedule is notably lacking both Alabama and LSU; beating Mississippi State and Duke could provide the Commies with a bowl-eligible record!
20. Wisconsin
Just as we were taking Badger Badger Badger! seriously, they drop an offensive egg at Michigan. UW had four first-half drives start in Michigan territory and walked away with 9 points. The 19-0 lead seemed enough at the time, but as we'd expect, you leave that many points on the field and it's going to come back to bite you. Now, PJ Hill and the rushing attack are very good, and the Badgers' defense did shut down the Fresno State offense all game and Michigan's offense for at least a half. (not that the latter is horribly impressive) However, Evridge has not been impressive and the Badgers' own secondary may be vulnerable. They've earned a ranking, but are just as likely to stay about here or to drop out entirely.
21. Oregon
Oregon's stats are inflated from killing the Washingtons, but they've got that nice road win at Purdue. I don't know how Boise State managed to embarass them at Autzen, but I'm more worried that their QBs keep dropping like flies. LeGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson has provided a strong running presence for the #4 ground attack in the country, and in four of their games they look like they've got one of the best offensive lines in the conference.
22. Fresno State
After handling Rutgers easily, Fresno State lost to Wisconsin, went to 2OT to beat Toledo, and struggled against UCLA before emerging victorious. Now, when Steele says they're going to lose to Toledo, I'm frankly impressed that the Bulldogs could thwart his will. However, the tale of the tape shows that this is a team who is actually getting outgained overall and are probably lucky not to be 2-2! October is a very easy month after a fairly difficult September, so it's time for the Dawgs to get some momentum going. Ryan Mathews and his 117 ypg rushing might be a good thing to build upon.
23. Va Tech
After a close loss to ECU, Virginia Tech has won four straight games, and for that we kinda have to rank them. We don't like it, particularly since three of those games were settled by 7 points or less, all against unranked opposition, but meh. Oh, they're also getting outgained by 36 ypg and the two QBs have a combined 1:5 ratio. Good times.
24. Tulsa
How can you not rank the #1 offensive team? Tulsa is scoring the most points (54/gm) and gaining the most yards (600/gm) of any team in the country, led by David Johnson and the country's #4 passing attack. Johnson has a 227 rating, averages 12.8 yards per attempt (fuck it, I'm going deep) and his 19 touchdowns lead all QBs. Brennan Marion is the leading receiver at over 100 ypg, and the #2 guy's name is Slick Shelley. Is that not perfectly suited for porno? Westerns? Both? The defense has been getting gashed, but who cares?
25. UConn
The Huskies got into a close one with Temple, edged out the Baylor "Cream" Bears off a WR dropping an easily catchable ball in the red zone, and survived Louisville on a late defensive touchdown. These are not quality opponents to be struggling against. Nonetheless, they are 5-0, and we'll be damned if we're going to rank Wake on the basis of beating Florida State then losing to Navy. Though it does say something that they're an underdog against unranked North Carolina. (The SextonCannon is coming.)
Keep an Eye on:
Ball State could be the team most likely to finish unbeaten, because good god look at their schedule. If they win at Toledo next week... hmmm.
Cal
They've looked absolutely fantastic against everybody but Maryland. Yeah, we still haven't figured that out, and probably never will. Jahvid Best's dislocated shoulder could cause them to drop a game against the Arizonas if he can't play.
Kentucky
The Wildcats have the #1 defense in the country (5.5 ypg) and they're unbeaten! So why no love? Well, for one, we don't think that's credible. The stat is as much a testament to their desire to hold Norfolk State to just 3 points, dammit as it is of actually having a top ten defense. We'll see how the game against Alabama goes this weekend. Offensively, there's not a lot going on here.
Illinois
Whatever the rankings say, Illinois has faced the toughest schedule in the country so far with two top ten opponents. Both were losses, neither was embarassing though. Juice Williams is clearly improved as a passer (139.4 rating, 226 ypg) and again, we repeat that this is against two strong teams to go with the two cupcakes. The rest of the schedule includes 2 top 25 opponents and 6 teams who shouldn't be that much of a challenge.
Michigan State
Javon Ringer is a one-man offense, averaging 179 ypg on the ground! MSU is so impressed with his ability that, to go with 37 carries per game, they've got him returning kickoffs. This team lost a 10 point decision at Cal and beyond that they're 4-1.
Northwestern
Credible or not, at 5-0 we've got to mention them. Aaaand yeah... we'll go into more detail after they've seen Purdue and MSU.
Oregon State
They lost a weird game against Stanford and got blown the fuck out by Penn State. Since then they've only beaten Hawaii... and USC. Lyle Moevao may not be the greatest QB, but with the Rodgers brothers, Sammie Stroughter, and Shane Morales they have got plenty of overall offensive talent. Defensive effort has been inconsistent - again, they showed us what they are capable of last Thursday, but they've also shown us what they're capable of (in a bad way) when they started 0-2.
Wake Forest
Some voters think that beating Cream Griffin III, surviving against Ole Miss, scoring four FGs against Florida State and living off their QBs doing what they do best (throw picks), then losing to Navy earns you a spot in the top 25. Well not here! We're looking at Wake, but right now they're just not doing what Tulsa and UConn are - namely, going unbeaten against weak opposition rather than a mere 3-1.
Tuesday, September 16
Week 3: Top 25, Live (mostly) from Virginia
First off, screw you,
Buckeye.
1. USC – When Ray Maualuga outscores the Buckeyes on his own, that’s either a) not a good sign for
2. Florida – Kudos to Florida for their improved defense; however, 90% of the reason Florida’s ranked #2 in this poll is because we all had unpleasant flashbacks to the 2004 season after thinking about ranking Oklahoma here. The Gators could easily be this good, but we’re holding judgment until seeing them in Neyland Stadium.
3.
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6. LSU – The Tigers are here mostly by default; they’ve taken care of business and looked pretty good while doing so. Charles Scott has emerged as their primary RB, which is something I never expected to see from LSU as long as they had talent 3-4 RBs deep, so let’s give some credit to Les Miles for that one.
7. Penn State – The Nittany Lions are the early-season favorites for the comeback team of the year award, averaging over 50 points per game against inferior opposition – but hey, you usually don’t expect that out of Penn State against anyone, and they did shut down a good Oregon State passing game. At this point, they’re our Big Ten favorites, because while we’re not sure if they’re the most talented team in the midwest, they are the team most properly using what they do have. (Buckeye.)
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11. South
12. BYU – UCLA must have done something to BYU/the Mormon people in a past life, or maybe His Coachness insulted Joseph Smith, because this team came out pissed off and with something to prove Saturday afternoon. 59-0? Christ. (where?)
13.
14. East
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21. Wake Forest – Ugh. We really don’t like ranking an ACC team, but there’s not a whole lot worth talking about beyond the top 20.
22.
23. Vanderbilt – They’re 3-0 and beat
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25.
Keeping an eye on:
Conference Rankings:
1. SEC – They’ve got four teams in our top ten and six in the top 25. Right now,
2. Big 12 – The top two teams have looked as good as any and
3. Big 10 – We expected
4. Pac-10 – Despite going 2-0 against the Big 10 last weekend (3-1 overall), the Pac loses this tiebreaker by going 3-7 last weekend including a 4-0 sweep by Mountain West opponents. Buckeye. USC is the runaway national #1 in our book right now, but
5. Big East – USF really saved the conference’s last remaining shreds of pride by avoiding a home loss to the 4th or 5th-best team in the Big 12. WVU will be fine as soon as Stewart figures out that Pat White should not be used as a drop-back passer. (Buckeye.) Everyone else sucks though so don’t expect them to move up.
6. Mountain West – BYU and
7. ACC – Watch out, the MAC is on your heels. Do not be fooled by
