We've Moved!

No, really, we've moved. Head on over to http://www.simulatedgamedayexperience.com. More content, more awesomeness, same posting frequency (okay, not quite the same frequency - it's more active!).

All the lack of activity doesn't preclude a lack of action

So there was supposed to be some pretty big news we'd be posting right around this time, but that ...well, that didn't quite go according to plan. So we may or may not be in a holding pattern - truth be told, even I don't have an answer on that one yet and I'm half the decision-making body. Still, we'll figure it out and be sure to announce it here when we have something; it should be one heck of a deal and I'm excited about what's coming up.

In the meantime, just because there haven't been posts doesn't mean I haven't been writing. I had a whole host of posts that I wanted to publish but the prior paragraph got in the way, so in the meantime we'll have the most regular batch of content we've had here in ages. No sense in sitting on content.

It's a rebirth!

Well, that second option I was talking over has actually come through. As a result, two things are going to happen here:

1 - all (both) of my smaller focused posts are going to move to a different site. I'll certainly crosslink it when the first article goes up there, although I don't know when that'll be.
2 - this blog will actually be transformed. I figure that since I follow the Nats anyway, I might as well go ahead and change it over into a Nats-focused blog with respect to its baseball content. Now, that's not going to be the case for the other sports; college football will still be here (I need to talk to the other guy to make sure that he's up for it next year, too), and I'll probably throw some college basketball posts on here during the dead zone from January to March.

I'd make a joke about content here, but with 2 updates in the past 2 days, I think I'm due for a month's vacation at this rate, right?

Ignore the dust in here

My apologies in advance; I'm going to be revamping the blog layout over the next few days. There won't be any difference in content - make your own joke - but the appearance will be changing. I don't know what it'll change to yet - just something I like more. I'd expect a reduction in the font size, maybe a widening of the text box so there's not as much dead space. Link update, perhaps.

There may be a secondary, much bigger change coming in the next couple of weeks; I'll update you again if that's the case.

Updates and A New Look

So - after a month of being dormant, I got the bit in my teeth again. Oddly, this time it's not about baseball, like all the previous posts have been about. Nope. I've got an outlet to talk about college football (and if anyone's been wondering when that other contributer was going to start showing up, now's about the time - he's huge into college football, too), and I'm going to take it.

On top of that, I've also got a much more stable internet connection now. It's hard to post entries when you're not sure if your internet connection is going to stay active long enough for you to actually post. However, that problem is fixed (I hope - I don't think it'll just outright die, for what it's worth). Does that mean regular entries again? Well, I can't guarantee that, but I'll certainly do my best.

Either way, I'm off to read about college football. Look for conference previews in the next couple of weeks.

So Much for the Updates

Yeah, I had this brilliant idea to update daily, and then reality set in. Can't win them all, I guess. Obviously at this point it's a little late to do a Late Series for ....well, Sunday and possibly Monday, so I'll get it on Memorial Day.

I did love how I completely whiffed the Cubs/Marlins series "prediction" earlier this week. I'm going to now go ahead to blame my lack of updating on shame.

So what the hell am I going to do with this now? Well, I'm still going to do the Early/Late Series posts, as I find them interesting. With June coming shortly, that means there's a good chance I'll break out with the Divisional Updates again. That being said, though, I'm starting to run out of things to do. It's fine and all to run around each division giving general updates on each team, but you can find that on your own. That's why I've linked those guys on the right. (Look for me to finally link a Dodgers blog here shortly.) I might do closer team studies at some point during the season - it's been tempting to bust out some "Focus on [Division]" weeks where all the posts are about the specific division in question, updating all the major stories coming out of it and so forth, but again, that seems like a small cop-out to me. Not so small I won't do it, however. ;)

I've been studying some of Bill James' work lately - and that of those who have followed in his footsteps. In other words, I think I'm about to start doing some statistical analysis. What will be the point of the analysis? My initial idea was to figure out whether the small-ball approach was better than the massive homer approach - or vice versa - but that's already been done before, and I'd rather not tread along the line of insanely obvious and overdone if I can help it. That being said, I'm still keen on figuring out if there's any correlation between home runs given up / allowed and winning percentage. Specifically, this would be runs scored / HR and runs given up / HR.

One thing I haven't quite figured out is why the batter that leads the league in HR has at least 50, but it's rare to see a pitcher give up more than 35 - Eric Milton included. Will this research answer my question? Maybe.

Basically, what I'm doing - and what I will post about shortly; look for it early next week or so - is compiling a bunch of HR-related data from every team in 2005 and seeing if I can find some sort of correlation. Then I'll do the same with 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 2000; as sample sizes go, it's not a Jamesian "let's take data from the last 91 years", but 6 years should be enough to find at least SOME kind of comparison. Consider this a pre-emptive thanks to baseball-reference.com.

The comparisons that I'm tackling first:

- What is the league average HR/AB, and did teams that performed above it have better records than teams that performed below it?

- What is the league average batters/HR given up, and did teams that performed above it have better records than teams that performed below it?

- What is the correlation between the first question and the second question: in other words, what will the Adjusted HR Rate tell me?

Of course, the initial question there is what's the Adjusted HR Rate. For me, I'm defining it as thus:

AdjHR = (HR hit / AB had) - (HR given up / batters faced)

More to come later.

What I've Missed

Okay, so thanks to a) a bunch of schoolwork and b) various levels of indisposition, I wasn't able to throw up the late-week series information last week. In addition, I'm going to have to wait on the early-series discussions as well due to real-life workload.

The good news? I'll return this weekend with the same basic format. Look for an update on either May 4th or May 5th.

Arbitrary Decisions

Okay, I'm cutting the "Fantasy Value" section from the rest of my team capsules. Why? Well, for one, most of the "more information" links talk about possible fantasy values in the first place. Beyond that, though, I don't like the way they flow. It just seems a little choppy to me, not to mention that - at least in my head, the way I see things, I'm basically rehashing what I've already said during the slightly more in-depth preview sections right above it anyway. If there's some major reason to keep that section in, let me know, but for now, I'm gonna toss it. There should be enough information on my thoughts in the regular section (and in writing all these down, I have yet to really make a new insight in the value section anyway).

On a slightly more interesting note, I've also decided to take on the project of evaluating the effectiveness of each team's middle relief corps. I figure that I don't know them very well to begin with, so by doing this, I get to understand them more. Plus, they're kind of neglected (and to boot, I don't know of anywhere that's doing this sort of thing). It won't slow me down that much from my original massive plan, actually - since I'm doing the research already, I just spend a few more minutes on that section - but I'll have to go back and do the other teams I've already finished at some point. Oh well, no big deal.

Minor Format Change

All right, screw it. I'm only linking trades and in the "more info" sections. Finding the names is taking way too long - I'd at least like to have these posts take me under 4 hours to write if I can possibly help it. I don't think that's too unreasonable.

On Deck

So what's up next? Team capsules. Pretty simply put, I plan on at least doing a cursory rundown of what every team looks like heading into Opening Day. (Yeah, hopefully I'll be done by then.) They'll be broken down - more or less - into 7 sections:

1. Starting Pitching
2. Closers / Middle Relief
3. Catchers /Infielders
4. Outfield
5. Fantasy Baseball Impact
6. Performance Prediction

Functionally speaking, the fantasy baseball impact is going to go after each section - at least that's how I've done it with the Braves and Phillies (which I've already finished - only 28 more teams to go). I'll post the expected order of writing ...uh, as soon as I find it. Oops, never mind, here we are.

1. Atlanta Braves
   
2. Philadelphia Phillies
   
3. New York Mets
   
4. Florida Marlins
   
5. Washington Nationals
   
6. St. Louis Cardinals
   
7. Houston Astros
   
8. Chicago Cubs
   
9. Milwaukee Brewers
   
10. Pittsburgh Pirates
    
11. Cincinnati Reds
12. San Francisco Giants
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
    
14. Colorado Rockies
    
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
16. San Diego Padres
17. Seattle Mariners
    
18. Texas Rangers
19. Anaheim Angels
    
20. Oakland A's (in progress)
21. Cleveland Indians (finished, need to post)
22. Chicago White Sox (finished, need to post)
23. Detroit Tigers (finished, need to post)
24. Minnesota Twins (finished, need to post)
25. Kansas City Royals (finished, need to post)
26. Boston Red Sox (finished, need to post)
27. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (finished, need to post)
28. New York Yankees (finished, need to post)
29. Baltimore Orioles (finished, need to post)
30. Toronto Blue Jays (finished, need to post)

There's no real reason behind this, other than I like the NL more than the AL. That and I remembered those teams first. It's more or less in a divisional format, too. Should be fairly easy to recognize (and I'll link back here as a general reference for the other capsules; this post will be edited often).

A couple of notes about this. First off, this isn't intended to be a professional-level capsule about each team. For one, I don't have the time, and secondly, I'm not getting paid for this anyway. I also don't have the type of resources they have. On top of that, it's not going to be as in-depth as fans of each respective team will do. There's a ton of blogs out there devoted to each team (I read a fair amount of them when I have the time) - I'll link to them as need be. What these capsules will hopefully provide is an opportunity to see quick hits on all the teams in one easy-to-find place. I'm going to see if I can find a way to leave this post at the top of the page so it'll be easy to link in and find things that way.

Starting out with a Whimper

So. What on earth makes this blog worthwhile, huh? What makes it better than the rest? Well, in short, there's nothing that entirely stands out. This is a sports blog, pure and simple. About 90% of the posts will fall under baseball and college football. I'll probably hit some college basketball too while it's in season, and if I can get the time to watch any games. The rest will hit all over the sports map, but I largely expect everything from April to August to be about baseball. In short, we'll see.

What's coming up on this? Well, I plan on doing short capsules of all the major league teams heading into Opening Day. Ideally, I'll get them all done by then, but that requires a major time investment, and as of now, I'm only one person. If someone would be willing to help with this, that'd be awesome. If not, well, I can do the work myself (I'd learn more that way, anyway).

Anyway, enjoy!