Humanitarian Bowl: Because "Boise" + "December" = "Humane"

Seriously, what the fuck? The idea behind this bowl originally was like the ideas behind the Hawaii and New Mexico bowls - free 12th or 13th game for Boise State, and it's a home game to boot. Well, turns out that of the now 12 years that this bowl's been around, Boise's been in the bowl a whopping total of 4 times. Good job, guys. At least this bowl has been pretty consistent about its WAC-ACC ties in the last 5 years (before that, god only knows), so they've got that going for them. So far, the ACC is 3-2 ... this year, someone's gotta win.

Maryland

This little inconsiderate shitbag of a team managed to give up more points than it scored - and still ended up at 7-5. You want road wins from these guys? Then it sucks to be you; only a relative de-pantsing of Clemson at high noon on a Saturday counted as a road win (Black Hole Theory: Clemson's talented on offense -> Maryland wins). They couldn't even beat MTSU on the road (final record: 5-7 - Black Hole Theory: they suck -> Maryland loses). Really, you could use the Black Hole Theory in most Maryland games this year; the only exceptions were Delaware (close win), Eastern Michigan (blowout), and NC State, although that NC State win was their last loss of the year, so ...maybe that doesn't count. That being said, somewhere around the last month of the year the Black Hole collapsed in on itself, evidenced by blowout losses to Florida State and Boston College (although BC has nothing on offense, so maybe Black Hole Theory still applied; the FSU game was an aberration).

Predictably, these fuckballs can't do anything right; even their second-in-the-ACC passing numbers of 207 yards per game was good enough for 65th(!) nationally. You want defense? Fuck you! How's it feel to be outrushed AND outpassed on an average basis? That being said, Da'Rel Scott is the only thing that passes for (functional) talent on offense (959 yards on the season); you'd think that for all the press Darius Heyward-Bey gets, he'd average more than 3.5 catches per game. Of course, that's also the Maryland offense in a nutshell. Chris Turner blows.

Defensibly, they're pretty much terrible. Don't stop the run, don't stop the pass, only 8 INT against 17 TDs allowed through the air, allow nearly 20 first downs per game, can't pressure the QB, and can't penetrate past the line of scrimmage. So of course they only allow 36% of third down conversions. When it comes to turnovers, they blow - we'll just tell you they're -8 on the season and leave it at that.

What do they have to do to win? We have no fucking clue.

Nevada

Nevada's a 7-5 team who pretty much went 7-2 against anyone who wasn't Texas Tech, Missouri, or Boise State. Of course, beyond those three they didn't exactly play anybody of note; hhwhat-hever.

Nevada's mantra for the season has been to dominate the ground. They get outpassed 321-219 but make up for it with a 291-74 rushing edge, on average. Does it work? Like we said... roughly half of the time, sure. Nevada outrushed opponents in both wins and losses, but in wins the margin was +270 while in losses it was down to +130.

Colin Kaepernick owes his solid QB rating to a 19/5 ratio; the percentages (54.8%) and averages (7.4 ypa, 206.6 ypg) are pedestrian, but he's not going to burn the team with turnovers. In the option attack, he's chipping in 92.9 ypg rushing, to go with main back Vai Taua's 118.3; the two have combined to pound it in 30 times as well.

Nevada's passing game chips in about 220 ypg regardless of win or lose. It's the passing defense that matters here, giving up 385 ypg in losses to just 275 ypg in wins. TD/INT ratio is about 2:1 either way, but there's a 10% difference in completion percentage. Surprisingly, this team is practically even in turnovers in both wins and losses.

What's their strategy against Maryland? Simple - pound the ball, and don't get burned through the air. Maryland's a team who's already getting outrushed on the season, so the former shouldn't be too much of a concern. (put another way, if they can't even win the ground game against Maryland, they're just being outclassed) Chris Turner hasn't been great, and Maryland's success is actually inversely related to his passing numbers (go figure). The Terps are vastly better when they're rushing for 186 ypg in wins than they are when they're rushing for only 62 ypg in losses. So I'd actually go against Nevada's apparent defensive indicator of passing ypg and just focus on stopping the run. Win the ground game by 100-150 yards, and let Turner's mediocrity fall short of being able to turn the tide.

The Emerald Bowl - The First of Several Reminders that Two BCS Conference Teams Plus Kickoff after Christmas Does Not Mean Exciting Matchup

The Emerald Bowl was one of about 12 bowls that’s cropped up since the 21st century began (11, if you count the old Poinsettia Bowls), and like most of the other 11 bowls, it has a couple of key points you’ll need to keep in mind:
1 – the team quality generally sucks
2 – the game quality generally sucks
The Emerald Bowl also has another important quality: the weather usually sucks. It’s held in San Fran in December, so it’s going to be spotty anyway. As for this year…showers. The game’s also held in AT&T Park for reasons that pass understanding – they can’t even kick the Raiders out for a week? Or the 49ers? It’s not like either of those teams are good. Instead these guys are running out routes on the infield hoping like hell they don’t get tackled into the dugout.

Oh, and none of the games have been within 7 points. Are you ready for some football?

Maryland (by Coach Lawrence)

Beat Villanova, Florida International, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and NC State. Good enough for bowl qualification? HELL YES. Maryland has had a season of epic proportions, beating two overrated teams and four plain ol crappy teams. Sure, along the way they lost to Wake Forest and UNC... but it doesn’t matter. Fear the Turtle!

Maryland has a pair of senior runningbacks, Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball, who get 15-20 carries per game apiece and average about 135 yards per game combined. The passing game is terrible... barely over 200 ypg passing between Turner and Steffy combined... who also have combined for 7 TDs and 9 INTs on the season! The defense is just as mediocre, giving up 220 ypg passing and 136 ypg rushing. Joy.

Keys to Victory:
1. Stop the running game at all costs. That’s right, bring all 11 if you have to. Maryland gives up 67 ypg rushing in wins, 205 in losses. Oregon State rushes for 197 ypg in wins, 104 in losses. This is clearly a key area of the game for both teams... don’t lose it. If Moevao beats you with his arm, then so be it.

2. Closer to 4 than 3. Maryland averages almost exactly 3.5 ypc over the season. That breaks down to 3.94 in wins, 2.97 in losses. It’s amazing what a difference a yard makes... 2nd and 6 vs 2nd and 7, then 3rd and 2 vs 3rd and 4. With a pair of horribly unreliable QBs, Maryland must stay ahead of the chains.

3. Smart passing. Maryland has 5 TDs, 3 INTs in six wins... 2 TDs and 6 INTS in six losses. Without the turnovers, scoring opportunities will present themselves, and a long field for Oregon State will put the pressure on their equally mediocre-at-best QBs.

Oregon State (by Coach Pendley)

From losing to Cincinnati to going 6-1 in the final 7, the Beavers have seen both extremes. There’s no excuse to losing to UCLA by 26, but wins over Utah, Cal (before the tailspin), and Oregon are all solid. That Cal win deserves extra credit, as Cal was #2 at the time, which then spawned both Cal’s tailspin and the massive spate of upsets the #2 team in the country suffered – Oregon State was first! Of course, if they knew their reward for that was getting to play in nasty San Fran weather, you’d have to wonder if they would’ve lost to Oregon at the end of the year.

As for the Beaver offense, it’s basically …Yvenson Bernard. He’s the third-leading rusher in the Pac-10 and 6th in overall yardage, averaging just over 120 total yards a game on the season. Oregon State’s passing game is the pits, totaling just under 2,449 yards on the season (yeah, it looks like a lot, but divide by 12) with a 10/20 ratio. That’s what we term “pitiful” in these parts.

Fortunately for OSU, they have the 2nd-best rushing defense in the nation, allowing 75 yards a game. Their secondary has made up for most of the mistakes the passing game made, pulling down 20 picks on the season – if the offense averaged only an INT a game they’d have a +9 turnover margin on the season. While they don’t do well on special teams (worst in the country in punting coupled with nonexistent return games), they at least hold onto the ball.

Keys to Victory:
1: For the love of god, keep the ball on the ground. Or just throw a lot of screens and short, easy routes. Maryland will give the Beavers plenty of opportunity to get some picks – 26 attempts per game – but it’ll be key to not give turnovers up through the air. Of course, since Oregon State averages 34 attempts per game, maybe that’s part of the problem.

2: Exploit the ground game. In what’ll likely be an ugly environment and – let’s be honest – an ugly game, Oregon State will need to take every advantage they can. Bernard gives them a great edge and should be able to wear down a non-stellar Maryland D.

3: Don’t be a big team. Maryland’s gotten up for its games against big teams – witness the wins over Rutgers and BC – but laid eggs against North Carolina and Florida State. I’m not suggesting that Oregon State come out wearing Duke’s jerseys, but …okay, I am suggesting that.