Maintain.

I've been behind lately (and, as James pretty much came out and said a few days ago, I'm the only person covering baseball here). With the recent move, life has basically gotten in the way the last few weeks - between the job searching and the apartment searching, that's taken up a lot of my time. Still, I've been trying to update in shorter bursts than what I've done in the past, so this only tells part of the story.

The second part? There hasn't been too much that's new about the team. They have won the season series over the Orioles - and I'm sure I'd care about that more if I had lived in DC longer. As of now, all that means is we have collective bragging rights over their fans for the next year. I'd care about that, but:

- I don't know any O's fans
- I wouldn't want to brag and/or gloat with someone who's sick of Angelos

Those two things mean I'd only rub it in to O's fans that support Angelos; has anyone seen those people, ever? I figure there's two of them, and they're probably in Germany.

In addition, the O's aren't even that good. They just fired their manager, hired Andy McPhail in the front office (last job was with the Cubs, IIRC), and Angelos has promised to lay off the baseball operations. I don't believe that for a minute, and I don't think anyone else does either. Still, that doesn't solve their bigger problem of needing to actually retool and reload offensively. There's a ton of issues with the team - not the least of which involve bringing in subpar crappy veterans as continual stopgaps. Anyone who's followed the team for any length of time could tell you that, too.

So what about the Detroit series? Well, that was a pasting - but the Tigers are damn good. Was anyone surprised about that? If anything, I was floored the Nats could even be in a position to win a game. Yeah, it was a flashback to April (and if anything, I've shown I seem to blog more as long as the team's losing, which means I should've had 12 updates over that time period), but we knew that was going to happen at some point.

Now the Nats are facing Cleveland. I'll be at the game tonight - it'll be my first non-Bascik start. I'm excited; Luis Ayala is back. While that seems an odd reason to be excited, Ayala was a fantasy baseball staple for a couple of years for me, and it was a shame to see him get injured for as long as he did. Still, now he's back - and now he's inducing Travis Hafner to ground into inning-ending DPs, which I can't complain about at all. Hell, even Cristian Guzman went yard last night - anything is possible now.

So what am I expecting tonight? Well, I'm not expecting anything out of Brandon Watson. He did go 2-for-4 last night, but that means he's 2-for-7 in limited exposure. That's better than he's done in either of his other ML stints. Eh, whatever. Right now the Nats are 15-27 against teams with a record over .500. Cleveland's 12 games up. I'll connect the dots.

EDIT: in another "milestone", we're finally over 100 posts here. Never saw that coming. In addition, I'm going to update with links to a couple of other articles and websites I write for as well. Stay tuned for those.

I don't really care about baseball, so here's this

It's true. Chris follows baseball fanatically, while I'm aware that the sport exists enough to sometimes watch in October.

College football, on the other hand, is just TWO AND A HALF MONTHS AWAY, and that's exciting. More exciting than, say, watching the Spurs beat the Cavs with the action-packed intensity of an Anaconda strangling a Caiman crocodile in the NBA Finals, which thank God are over.

But why should you care about an NCAA football season that doesn't kick off for another 73 days and whose most important games won't start for another 60+ days after that?

Because SEPTEMBER IS THE MOST IMPORTANT MONTH OF THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON. Yes, September. November is pittance in comparison.

I have often thrown around the statistic that of the 13 teams from BCS conferences who have gone unbeaten over the past 9 years, 12 have gone on to play in the BCS championship game. Never has a BCS unbeaten been left out in favor of any team to have suffered losses during the regular season. But what about the flip side? The old adage is that it's better to lose early than late. Six teams who have lost one game have played in the BCS championship: 98 FSU, 00 FSU, 01 Nebraska, 03 LSU, 03 OU, 06 Florida.

1998 featured just one unbeaten team from a BCS conference, Tennessee, and six teams from BCS conferences with just one loss. The Noles, who were selected to play against Tennessee, lost on 9/12 to NC State. Arizona's only loss of the season came on 10/10 to UCLA. UCLA's lone regular season loss came on 12/5 to Miami. Wisconsin lost on 11/14 to Michigan, and Big Ten co-champ Ohio State lost on 11/7 to Michigan State. Kansas State's perfect season was ruined on 12/5 by Texas A&M in the Big XII championship.

The 00 Noles lost on 10/7 to Miami. That same Miami team lost their only game on 9/9 to Washington, who lost their only game on 9/30 to Oregon. Oregon State suffered their only loss on 10/7, also to Washington.

For the 01 Huskers, it was a loss on 11/23 to Colorado in the Big XII championship. They were selected over an Oregon team whose sole loss came on 10/20 to Stanford. Not a lot of people remember, but Illinois lost just one game that regular season (9/29 to Michigan) and Maryland also finished the regular season 10-1, losing to Florida State on 10/27.

03 LSU lost on 10/11 to Florida and their opponent OU lost on 12/6 to Kansas State in the Big XII championship. They were selected over a USC team who lost their only game on 9/27 to Cal.

06 Florida lost on 10/14 to Auburn. They were selected over a Michigan team who lost their only game on 11/18 to Ohio State. Wisconsin lost just one game as well, on 9/23 to Michigan. Louisville's sole loss came on 11/9 to Rutgers.

Well that's a lot of numbers! Here's what they boil down to:
In only four of nine years have their been two (or more) unbeaten BCS teams at the end of the regular season. In the other five years, a team with one loss has been given a second chance!

Each of those five years, there has been a team that lost its only game in September. That is a total of six teams who lost a game in September but MIGHT have been given a second chance. Only ONE of those SIX teams actually did get a BCS championship game berth, though! The FSU Seminoles in 1998. Of the five teams who didn't, one was left out in favor of a team who lost in November, and the other four were left out in favor of teams who lost in October. (03 USC was actually left out in favor of teams who lost in October and December, since no BCS conference had an unbeaten team in 2003)

Comparatively, THREE of SEVEN teams to have their only loss in October in a season without two BCS unbeatens were given a title game berth. Of the four that didn't, two were left out in favor of a team who lost in November, one who lost in October, and one who lost in September.

ONE of FIVE teams who lost their only game in November in such a season wound up playing in the BCS title game. Of the four who weren't, two were left out in favor of a team losing in October and two in favor of a team losing in September.

ONE of THREE team who lost their only game in December in a regular season with one of less BCS unbeatens wound up in the BCS title game. The two who didn't were both left out in favor of a team who lost in September.

Now, just one weekend of football is played in December and that is mostly conference championships, so we could say that TWO of EIGHT teams who lost after October and still had a chance to get into the title game actually did get into the title game.

In some cases, it was guaranteed that a team losing in that month would be left out. For example, in 2000 it was a certainty that a team losing in October would be left out, since only one of FSU and Oregon State could face unbeaten Oklahoma. Revising the numbers to accomodate for that, September losers got a second chance ONE out of a possible FIVE times, with NONE of the FIVE teams who didn't get that chance being left out in favor of a team who lost in the same month. THREE of a possible FIVE times an October loser got a second chance, with ONE of the FOUR who got left out being left out in favor of a fellow October loser. TWO of a possible FOUR times a Nov/Dec loser got a title berth, with NONE of the SIX teams who got left out being left out in favor of a team who lost in Nov/Dec.

The strange result is that it actually appears WORSE to lose a game in September than in any other month. In fact, if you are going to lose a game, October looks like the month to do it in. Why? While games in November and December are what's fresh on the voters' minds, games in September determine which teams are getting the hype in the first place. Last season in October, everybody was talking about Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Louisville, USC, and West Virginia. One-loss Wisconsin was already long forgotten about, even though they'd go on to finish the year 12-1 with a January bowl win. The computers don't take dates, or even the order of games, into account. But computers do, albeit only in an indirect/abstract fashion, take into account the strength of your conference. Losing in September costs you valuable media hype during the second half of the season and usually hurts your conference as September features a lot of nonconference games. Losing in November/December is fresh on voters' minds, although losing in December sometimes comes after you've already virtually locked up a BCS title game berth or on a weekend when the other contenders have already finished playing. Losing a conference game in October minimizes the "damage."

This is a very roundabout way of saying that September will probably be most important in determining who's in the running for the championship game. So what's on for the first month of the greatest sport played in America?

Sept 1
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame
Washington State @ Wisconsin
Tennessee @ California

Sept 8
Miami @ Oklahoma
Va Tech @ LSU
Oregon @ Michigan
Notre Dame @ Penn State
Nebraska @ Wake Forest
TCU @ Texas
Fresno State @ Texas A&M
Washington @ Boise State

Sept 15
Notre Dame @ Michigan
Ohio State @ Washington
USC @ Nebraska
Fresno State @ Oregon
Tennessee @ Florida
Arkansas @ Alabama

Sept 22
Texas A&M @ Miami (9/20)
Penn State @ Michigan
Georgia @ Alabama

Sept 29
Alabama @ FSU
California @ Oregon


And what about 2007's teams to watch? Who will have their title game or other BCS hopes dashed in September?

Alabama
The Crimson Tide are fresh off a 6-7 season, and have won six or less games in three of the last four seasons. They return 9 offensive starters but just 5 starters on defense. Nonetheless, there's a group of people who believe that Nick Saban can turn this team into title contenders. They're called "residents of the state of Alabama."
9/1: Western Carolina
9/8: at Vanderbilt
9/15: Arkansas
9/22: Georgia
9/29: vs Florida State in Jacksonville

Arkansas
In 2006, Arkansas reversed two straight losing seasons to finish 10-4. Despite the high number of losses, each team to beat them won at least 11 games, including national champion Florida, nonconference foe USC, and bowl foe Wisconsin. They had to defeat a 11-win team, Auburn, to get their own ten wins. This season's schedule is much more forgiving. They return just six starters on each side of the ball, but with McFadden running more Wildcat and unsung fullback Hillis healthy again, their offense should be fearsome. In September, they will only be challenged by a road trip to Alabama. Win that, and they're looking at a 5-0 start before hosting Auburn.
9/1: Troy
9/8: at Alabama
9/15: Kentucky
9/22: North Texas
9/29: UT-Chattanooga

Auburn
After being left out of the championship in 2004, Auburn has a 20-5 record over the past two years. Three losses have come in conference play, though not to any team twice. They return most of their defense and most of the offensive skill players, but must replace four offensive linemen! September includes nonconference games with Kansas State and USF who both played in bowl games and a trip to Florida on the 29th. They will realistically have their sights on a 5-0 start pending a favorable outcome in the Florida game.
9/1: Kansas State
9/8: South Florida
9/15: Mississippi State
9/22: New Mexico State
9/29: at Florida

Boise State
From 2002-2004, the Broncos had three straight one-loss seasons, with losses only to Arkansas, Oregon State, and Louisville. The following season was a down year, with four losses including an 0-2 start and a loss in their bowl game to Boston College. In 2006, the Boise State Broncoes became just the second non-BCS team to finish a perfect season that included a win in a BCS bowl. While leading rusher Ian Johnson returns, the Broncos lose their top four receivers and star QB Jared Zebransky. The Broncos lose 11 starters overall. September is a forgiving month with only Washington to worry about.
8/30: Weber State
9/8: at Washington
9/15: Wyoming
9/22: bye
9/27: Southern Miss

California
Cal is in an interesting situation. Since USC started getting the #1 recruiting class every year since 2003 (according to Steele's which combines all the major recruiting serices' data), only Cal has had much success among the rest of the Pac 10. They have managed a top 25 class each of the past four years. However, they return just five defensive starters in 2007, and this team was already weak defensively for the past two seasons... in fact, their defense has been awful pretty much every season in the BCS era other than 2004. The September schedule includes a visit from Tennessee and a trip to Oregon.
9/1: Tennessee
9/8: at Colorado State
9/15: Louisiana Tech
9/22: Arizona
9/29: at Oregon

Florida
Last year the Florida Gators became the 3rd SEC team to win a BCS championship and the first team with a loss entering the BCS game to upset a previously unbeaten. Florida has won two national titles in the last eleven seasons, but has never finished a season unbeaten! The Gators will have a QB with little experience and 9 new defensive starters, and must host Tennessee and Auburn in September.
9/1: Western Kentucky
9/8: Troy
9/15: Tennessee
9/22: at Mississippi
9/29: Auburn

Florida State
Though the Seminoles finished last season 7-6, Tallahassee is very excited about their 2007 potential. The Noles crushed UCLA 44-27 in an Emerald Bowl that was supposed to determine the leading darkhorse candidate for this season. Their 14 returning starters is the most the team has had since their championship year of 1999. But they may be more excited about who's not coming back, which is offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden replaced by Jimbo Fisher. An opening game visit to Clemson and a later hosting of Alabama are the Noles greatest worries.
9/1: at Clemson
9/8: UAB
9/15: at Colorado
9/22: bye
9/29: vs Alabama at Jacksonville

Fresno State
Since Pat Hill took over Fresno State, the program has built itself up to be one of the premiere mid-major powers. They are known for being willing to play anyone, anywhere. Indeed in the past six seasons, they have played nonconference games against teams from the Pac 10 primarily but also the ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, and SEC. While this tough scheduling has brought its share of losses, the not-that-infrequent wins have brought real respect to the program. Last season, though, the Bulldogs finished a disappointing 4-8 with a new QB. They return just 11 starters, 4 on defense, and travel to Texas A&M and Oregon in their opening three weeks.
9/1: Sacramento State
9/8: at Texas A&M
9/15: at Oregon
9/22: Louisiana Tech
9/29: at Nevada

Georgia
Georgia could be called the best program in the BCS era never to have won a title. Their 9-4 finish last season snapped a streak of four straight 10+ win seasons with a record totalling 53-13 from during the past five seasons. This includes a 4-1 record in bowl games and a 2-1 record in the SEC championship. In the past five seasons, they have lost just one game in September, to BCS champ LSU in the 2003 season. They return seven starters on offense but Stafford at QB is a major concern. Only four starters return on defense. Hosting South Carolina may be surprisingly challenging and they travel to Alabama in the season's opening month.
9/1: Oklahoma State
9/8: South Carolina
9/15: Western Carolina
9/22: at Alabama
9/29: Mississippi

Hawaii
While not generating as much publicity as Boise State or Fresno State, Hawaii has been a third strong team from the WAC in recent years. Despite a losing record in 2005, the Warriors have won 52 games from 2001 on, culminating with a 11-3 2006 record. During that time their bowl record is 3-1. Hawaii returns 8 defensive starters and offensive star Colt Brennan at QB. The Warriors have a cupcake September and I would be shocked if they are not 5-0.
9/1: Northern Colorado
9/8: at Louisiana Tech
9/15: at UNLV
9/22: Charleston Southern
9/29: at Idaho

Louisville
Louisville, or "Lawlvull" as it is pronounced in Kentucky, was recruited by the Big East after an impressive 11-1 season in CUSA, including spoiling Boise State's perfect season in the Liberty Bowl, in a effort to offset some of the talent and prestige lost to the ACC as three schools bolted the conference! West Virginia shocked the Cardinals in 2005, coming back from 20 points down to win in triple OT. The Cards still had a shot at a 10-win season, but blew a lead against Va Tech in the Gator Bowl to finish 9-3. In 2006, everyone knew the Cardinals were serious after they embarassed Miami 31-7 and won a 44-34 shootout without injured star Michael Bush against West Virginia. The Cardinals appeared on their way to ending Rutgers' dream season when they blew a 25-7 lead, and even at 25-25 Rutgers needed a rekick of a FG (due to penalty) to win the game. Lousiville finished 12-1 with a BCS bowl win over Wake Forest. The offense returns 8 starters including Heisman hopeful QB Brohm and the entire WR corps. Though they have a new starter at RB, in reality three backs have significant game experience and good stats. The defensive line and secondary must each replace two starters, and a defensive recovery stands between them and a perfect season. They should easily be 5-0 in September as their schedule is not even worth discussing until November.
9/1: Murray State
9/8: Middle Tennessee
9/15: at Kentucky
9/22: Syracuse
9/29: at North Carolina State

LSU
The LSU Tigers have gone 44-8 in the last four years, including their BCS championship season of 2003. During that span they are 3-1 in bowl games including 2-0 in the Sugar Bowl, and 1-1 in the SEC championship. Their lone bowl loss came on a desparation play by Iowa as time expired. The Tigers return most of their potent defense save for the two stars at safety, and while Flynn is a first year starter at QB he has significant game experience including a Peach Bowl victory over Miami. LSU are picked to finish the season #2 after USC by most preseason mags. Their September schedule includes a visit from Virginia Tech and two weeks later South Carolina. If the team plays to its potential, 5-0 is a likely result.
9/1: at Mississippi State
9/8: Virginia Tech
9/15: Middle Tennessee
9/22: South Carolina
9/29: at Tulane

Miami FL
Larry Coker's tenure at Miami began with a 12-0 national championship season with many considering this team to have been the best ever. The following year they were robbed in the Fiesta Bowl by a phantom PI call that prevented Miami from becoming the first repeat champions of the BCS era. Back-to-back losses in 2003 started the cries for Coker's head, despite a 35-3 total record at Miami! The following season the Canes lost three more games and Coker arguably saved himself by winning the Peach Bowl against Florida. But a 2005 season without ten wins and with a humiliating bowl blowout at the hands of LSU probably sealed his fate. Coker was fired in 2006 and a one-point bowl victory over Nevada prevented the Canes first losing season since 1997. This season Miami returns 16 starters, including 9 on offense and a senior QB. If the offensive line's weaknesses can be fixed, this will be a powerful unit, and the defense is always solid. In September they face two Big XII foes, travelling to Oklahoma and hosting Texas A&M. Fans will expect 5-0 and would be devastated by 3-2. Winning in Norman is probably too much to ask of these Canes, but on the other hand this is Oklahoma in September.
9/1: Marshall
9/8: at Oklahoma
9/15: Florida International
9/20: Texas A&M
9/29: Duke

Michigan
After sharing the 1997 national championship, Michigan has gone 84-28 in the BCS era with no fewer than 7 wins in a season (usually 9 or 10) but also no fewer than 2 losses (usually 3). Chad Henne has caught some flak for a 0-3 record against Ohio State and 0-3 record in bowl games, but little of that is his fault. The defense has twice given up 37 or more points to the Buckeyes to negate good offensive stats, and the defense has given up at least 32 points in each bowl loss, with the loss to Nebraska also having numerous officiating errors which cost Michigan timeouts. Indeed, in their 10 losses under Henne, the offense has put up at least 20 points in eight of those games, with only the Notre Dame loss in 2005 resting squarely on the QB. Despite just returning 10 starters, Michigan returns most of their offensive talent and should be very potent. They will miss Ecker as a safety valve and Breaston for explosive plays. Defensively is where they must worry. Nearly all of their big names from 2006 are gone, although they will not have to start any freshmen. Michigan's defense had been porous in 2004 and 05 before a strong showing in 06, so this is a legitimate concern. September opens with a visit from the defending champions... of division I-AA. Then they host Oregon, Notre Dame, and Penn State before travelling to Northwestern. Oregon's defense was in shambles in 2006, Notre Dame lost the bulk of their offensive talent, and Penn State does not play well on the road. Still that is a tough three-game stretch.
9/1: Appalachian State
9/8: Oregon
9/15: Notre Dame
9/22: Penn State
9/29: at Northwestern

Nebraska
Nebraska had an amazing streak from 1969-2001 in which they won no fewer than 9 games in any season. After a shaky 2002, they again won 10 games in 2003. It has been trying times since then for the Huskers faithful, as in 2004 they had a losing season for the first time anyone could remember. The 2005 team improved to 8-4 with a number of close wins and close losses, and a controversial win in the Alamo Bowl over Michigan. Last season the Huskers made it back to the Big XII championship game but were handled easily by Oklahoma and lost the Cotton Bowl to Auburn. They return just 11 starters but should have an improved QB with Sam Keller now eligible. Their September schedule includes visits from Nevada, USC, and Iowa State and a trip to reigning ACC champ Wake Forest before an October showdown with Missouri that could determine the Big XII North champion.
9/1: Nevada
9/8: at Wake Forest
9/15: USC
9/22: Ball State
9/29: Iowa State

Notre Dame
In Charlie Weis' first season at Notre Dame, the Fightigh Irish started the season 4-1 with victories over three ranked teams before losing at the last second to juggernaut USC in what was a great execution of a near-perfect gameplan. The Irish rolled on to a 9-2 record and a controversial selection over Pac 10 runners-up Oregon, who were 10-1 and ranked higher than Notre Dame in the BCS standings! The Irish faced off against Ohio State in the Fiesta and were run out of the stadium on defense. In 2006, the Irish climbed to #2 before being embarassed by Michigan, and spend the rest of the season hovering around #10. ND would reach a record of 10-1 before back to back blowout losses against USC and LSU. At 10-3, each team to defeat ND did go on to win 11 games, and the Irish themselves beat three teams with 9 wins. However, this season ND will return just 9 total starters and lost their stars at QB, RB, and two WRs. September will be grueling with trips to Penn State and Michigan, and they could be upset by Ga Tech or Purdue as well.
9/1: Georgia Tech
9/8: at Penn State
9/15: at Michigan
9/22: Michigan State
9/29: at Purdue

Ohio State
In Jim Tressel's second year at Ohio State, the Buckeyes surprised the country by going 14-0 and upsetting heavily favored Miami in the Fiesta Bowl, following up a modest 7-5 campaign the season before. The team was heavy with NFL talent and would set a record for number of draft picks in a single year. The Buckeyes were on the outside track of a title game race in 2003 before losing to Michigan to ruin any small hopes they had. 2004 was a tough season as three consecutive losses dropped them from the top 25 until after the bowl games, but they would return to the top in 2005 with a nasty defense and speedy WRs, winning 10 games and a BCS bowl. Last year the Buckeye defense was supposed to struggle, but instead it shone brightly allowing just 86 points in their first 11 games. They got into a shootout victory over Michigan before being shocked and humiliated against Florida in the BCS championship game. The Buckeyes return just 11 starters in 2007 and have questions at QB and WR. But a trip to Washington is their only possible challenge in September, as with Glen Mason gone Minnesota should struggle to find its way in a new spread scheme.
9/1: Youngstown State
9/8: Akron
9/15: at Washington
9/22: Northwestern
9/29: at Minnesota

Oklahoma
In 2003 and 2004, OU lost two national championship games in which their invitation was somewhat controversial. In 2005 they opened the season with a new QB and a 2-3 record but won six of their final seven including a bowl upset of Oregon to finish a respectable 8-4. In 2006 they felt robbed by poor officiating in Oregon, then lost a game to Texas in which they outgained the Longhorns by 110 yards but lost the turnover battle by five! Again they would wright the ship by winning their final 8 including the Big XII championship, before losing to Boise State's amazing series of trick plays and 4th down conversions. Despite returning 15 starters, the Sooners will once again have a new face at QB which has not boded well for them in the early season. Of their seven losses in the past two years, five have come in September or in the Red River Shootout the first weekend in October. OU must host Miami and an away game at Tulsa which is only interesting considering the Sooners' recent September woes.
9/1: North Texas
9/8: Miami FL
9/15: Utah State
9/22: at Tulsa
9/29: at Colorado

Oregon
Quackitty quack quack quack. If you know any Oregon fans, you hear this sound almost EVERY September. Anytime someone mentions 2001 Miami as an all-time great, you hear how they didn't have to play Oregon. (That 2001 team did get a raw deal.) Since then, Oregon has opened 6-0 in 2002 to finish 7-6, 4-0 in 2003 to finish 8-5, 1-3 in 2004 to finish 5-6, 3-0 in 2005 to finish 10-2, and 4-0 in 2006 to finish 7-6. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball, and receiving is the only question on offense as their #2 and #4 yardage gainers are gone. Their top two tacklers are gone but numbers 3-7 all return. But while previous Ducks teams have fared well in September and crumbled later on, this team faces a road trip to Michigan and home matches with Fresno State and Cal in their opening month.
9/1: Houston
9/8: at Michigan
9/15: Fresno State
9/22: at Stanford
9/29: California

Penn State
After two losing seasons, the Nittany Lions rose from the ashes and posted a 11-1 record in 2005, losing their perfect season on a last second play by Michigan and going on to defeat Florida State in an ugly Orange Bowl. They dropped to 9-4 in 2006, but all four losses came to teams with 10 or more victories, they ended the season on a positive note with a January bowl win over Tennessee, and the defense actually allowed fewer points total in more games than 2005. This season, though, they must replace three defensive linemen and five defensive starters overall! While the offense returns 8, it will miss leading rusher Tony Hunt. The September schedule includes a visit from Notre Dame and a trip to Michigan. Notre Dame is a weakened team and should not win in Happy Valley. But I question Penn State's ability to keep up with Michigan's offense in Ann Arbor.
9/1: Florida International
9/8: Notre Dame
9/15: Buffalo
9/22: at Michigan
9/29: at Illinois

Rutgers
In 2006, Rutgers returned to the top 25 for the first time since the 70s en route to a 11-2 season and the school's first ever bowl victory! They rode the backs of star RB Ray Rice, FB Brian Leonard, and a stingy defense that yielded 30+ points just twice all season, both losses. Leonard is gone but Rice should be even better, and Teel is supposed to have made big improvements in passing in the offseason. In all, 13 starters return and the schedule is very favorable.
8/30: Buffalo
9/7: Navy
9/15: Norfolk State
9/22: Maryland
9/29: Cincinnati

South Carolina
OK, I wouldn't call South Carolina title contenders, or even a darkhorse team, but Steve Spurrier's third season at the other USC is going to be interesting. The team returns 7 offensive starters including the QB, and 10 defensive starters. They went 8-5 in 2006 but had losses to Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida all by a TD or less. SC reminds me of the situation Ohio State was in heading into 2002, with the strong returning defense, experienced QB, great coach, and so many close losses the year before. September features three very winnable games but also road trips to Georgia and LSU! Two early conference losses would put a blocker on the Cocks' hopes of winning the SEC East, but even a 4-1 start would have them firmly above the pack. As LSU still looks a bit too hard for them to match up with talent-wise, divisional foe Georgia will be who they hope to defeat to take a step towards penetrating the barrier holding them back and thrust themselves into the SEC elite. Penis.
9/1: UL-Lafayette
9/8: at Georgia
9/15: South Carolina State
9/22: at LSU
9/29: Mississippi State

TCU
TCU has had three 11-win seasons in the past four years and four 10+ win seasons in the last five. They have gone 3-1 in bowl games since 2002, ironically with their lone bowl loss coming to Boise State after they backed out of a GMAC matchup with Ben Roethlisberger and MAC champion Miami, citing conflicts with their exam schedule which the university was able to ignore in a Poinsettia Bowl matchup last year with Northern Illinois. They return 9 defensive starters from a team that gave up just 160 points in 13 games, but return just five on the offensive side and will have to replace QB Ballard. TCU boasts every year of being the #2 team in Texas and complains of voter bias against them. After an opening game hosting Baylor, TCU will travel to Austin to see who the best team in Texas is. Unless it conflicts with parents' weekend or something.
9/1: Baylor
9/8: at Texas
9/15: at Air Force
9/22: SMU
9/29: Colorado State

Tennessee
I don't know that I have ever seen a team with as ugly a mascot as that dog of Tennessee's. The Vols went 5-6 in 2005 with a late-season loss to Vanderbilt costing them bowl eligibility. In 2006 they rebounded to open the season by blowing out highly ranked California in a game that wasn't as close as the 17 point margin indicates. They lost heartbreakers to Florida and LSU before getting run over by Arkansas and having their offense fall apart vs Penn State in the Outback Bowl. Since winning the national championship in 1998, Tennessee is just 2-5 in bowl games and 0-2 in the SEC championship. The Vols return just 11 of 22 starters but have significant experience at QB, with most losses coming to the receiving corps and secondary. Their September schedule includes visits to California and Florida but two easy wins and a bye week as well. The first three weeks will make Tennessee a national title contender if they go 3-0.
9/1: at California
9/8: Southern Miss
9/15: at Florida
9/22: Arkansas State
9/29: bye

Texas
Rarely has the college football world been graced by the presence of a truly great player such as Vince Young. A moment of silence please. The Texas Longhorns won their first national title in 35 years when their 2005 squad upset the USC Trojans in the Rose Bowl. A repeat title was all but a mathematical certainty until Young declared that he would be making the NFL a better place after completing his junior year. After a bad loss to Ohio State, the 06 Horns appeared to still have BCS hopes as they were 9-1, but following an injury to Colt McCoy lost their last two conference games. A close win salvaged their streak of 6 straight 10+ win seasons. While returning just six starters from a defense with coverage problems last season, the offense may be the best in the country and, so long as McCoy stays healthy, should be able to blow through a September schedule in which only TCU should provide a minor challenge.
9/1: Arkansas State
9/8: TCU
9/15: at UCF
9/22: Rice
9/29: Kansas State

Texas A&M
They're being talked about, so I might as well write about em. After losing in the Sugar Bowl to Ohio State in 1998, Texas A&M had seven seasons of irrelevance. If you know much about Aggie culture, this is like 100 years to them. Finally, last season, A&M broke through to win 9 games. They started out 8-1 and playing the Citadel, UL-Lafayette, Army, and La Tech had a little to do with that. Upsetting Missouri was a big deal, but if Colt McCoy didn't get injured against K-State, A&M would have lost their final three games of the regular season... which at least would have meant they wouldn't have to play Cal in the Holiday Bowl and get embarassed. ABC kept hyping up the Holiday Bowl as some big offensive matchup, but only one of these teams had a decent offense; A&M's stats were padded by a cupcake September schedule. Or perhaps they meant that playing against Cal gives you a good offense by default, but that's not the way the game turned out. A&M returns 9 starters from their overrated offense and 6 starters from a defense that gave up 21 ppg. They won't win 9 games this year, but with their mostly easy September schedule, the only game they'll have to worry about that month will be against Miami.
9/1: Montana State
9/8: Fresno State
9/15: UL-Monroe
9/20: at Miami FL
9/29: Baylor

UCLA
Okay I'll admit, I don't understand why people are picking UCLA to finish #2 in the Pac 10. Well obviously, returning 10 offensive and 10 defensive starters has something to do with it. That means they'll be a better version of a team that went 7-6 including 4 conference losses all by 10 or more points, a blowout Emerald Bowl loss to Florida State, and yes an upset of USC in their rivalry game. In the BCS era the Bruins have had just two 10-win seasons and are 2-5 in bowl games. In September their biggest challenges will probably be BYU and Utah, though Oregon State could be decent. With their toughest games all coming later in the season, even 4-1 might not be a good enough start for the Bruins if they have BCS hopes, so they cannot afford to slip up.
9/1: at Stanford
9/8: BYU
9/15: at Utah
9/22: Washington
9/29: at Oregon State

USC
Since 2002, the USC Trojans have won an outright title, shared another, and come 3 points short of a third. They are 4-1 in BCS bowls in the past five years and have won the last four Pac 10 titles including sharing one with Oregon State and Cal in 2006. They have finished each season since 2002 ranked no lower than 4th. Returning 10 defensive starters and with the only offensive questions being at WR, they are as close as there is to being a lock to play in the BCS title game. After opening a home game with Idaho, USC's schedule gets down to business as they travel to Nebraska and finish the season with 9 conference games plus a trip to Notre Dame. The marquee matchup of September is the trip to Nebraska, whose supposedly improved offense might test USC, but who pobably lost too much defensive talent to actually win the game.
9/1: Idaho
9/8: at Nebraska
9/15: Washington State
9/22: at Washington
9/29: Stanford

Va Tech
The Hokies have managed to win 10+ games each of the last three seasons without generating a lot of hype. Last season the defense was excellent but the offense struggled in a conference loss to Boston College and a bowl loss to Georgia, where points were mostly given up by turnovers. The Hokies return 16 starters, and with Glennon and Ore now being more seasoned, the offense should be more consistent. Va Tech is a darkhorse title contender and September features four games they should win easily and a big trip to LSU.
9/1: East Carolina
9/8: at LSU
9/15: Ohio
9/22: William and Mary
9/29: North Carolina

Wake Forest
The Deamon Deacons were the surprise ACC champs in 2006, after three straight losing seasons! Despite not having great stars, they won three games by 3 or less and another two by 7 points. But in their three losses, the offense managed just 12 ppg and must do a better job. Fortunately, they return 9 offensive starters and starting QB Skinner, who played as a true Freshman in 06, has big game experience now. Unfortuantely, the defense that anchored so many wins returns just 5 starters and 4 of the 6 leading tacklers are gone. Wake Forest opens at Boston College then hosts Nebraska before hosting Army, then must host Maryland. BC is very experienced and Nebraska should simply have more talent, so it will be very hard for Wake to start off unbeaten.
9/1: at Boston College
9/8: Nebraska
9/15: Army
9/22: Maryland
9/29: bye

West Virginia
The White-Slaton era began in Morgantown back in 2005, a season of offensive brilliance marred by the inconsistency you'd expect from relying on two freshmen. Only an early season loss to Virginia Tech kept them from a perfect season, as the Mountaineers won an impressive comeback against Louisville and defended the conference's tarnished image with an upset of SEC champion Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Last season the Cardinals got their revenge on WVA, but it was a surprise loss to South Florida that ended their hopes of an at-large BCS berth. Despite a questionable defense, the offense was one of the most feared in the nation, and should be even moreso in White and Slaton's junior years as they add speedster Noel Devine into the mix. The Mounties return 15 starters and should be better on both sides of the ball than they were in an 11-2 2006 season. USF, who upset WVA last year, is on the September schedule, but realistically they will go 5-0.
9/1: Western Michigan
9/8: at Marshall
9/13: at Maryland
9/22: East Carolina
9/28: at South Florida

Wisconsin
Wisconsin has a history of going unmentioned. In 1998, they were one of six teams to finish the regular season with one loss, Big Ten co-champs featuring the nation's stingiest defense and best running back, but were hardly an afterthought in the title game discussion. The following year they went 10-2 and won a second consecutive Rose Bowl, before sinking into obscurity. In the last two years they have risen back to the top, first going 10-3 then 12-1, uncluding two bowl victories over tough SEC foes in the Capital One Bowl! The 2006 defense allowed a shade over half as many points as the 2005 unit in HC Bret Bielma's first year. The Badgers return 16 starters and while they must break in a new QB, he is a senior so he has plenty of practice time in the system if little game experience. PJ Hill should have an outstanding year running the ball, and with Michigan and Ohio State somewhat depleted they could win the Big Ten. Wisconsin hosts Washington State their opening week, a team which could challenge their defense but struggle to slow down Hill. Iowa is a decent matchup, but with the Hawkeyes starting a new sophomore QB and playing in Madison, the Badgers should have the edge in that one.
9/1: Washington State
9/8: at UNLV
9/15: the Citadel
9/22: Iowa
9/29: Michigan State


Predictions coming later...

Feast and Famine

It's tough to get an accurate read on an inconsistent team. Right now, that's the current version of the Nats - I saw them lay a giant egg on Wednesday. Of course, they follow that up by taking the Dodgers out back on Thursday (knew I should've gone to that game instead!). They follow that up by beating up on Jake Peavy the first couple of innings on Friday night and eventually prevailing with a 4-3 win in 10 innings. If you haven't been paying attention, that's pretty impressive; the Padres' bullpen doesn't give up anything. Ever, really.

And then ...well, you have the first inning of Saturday's game. I still can't (or won't) blame Speigner for that. It wasn't his fault Nook pulled a circa 1999 Andruw Jones-style play, pulling up in front of a flyball he should've caught. It wasn't his fault that Guzman on the next play thought A-Rod was behind him yelling, "HAAA!" or "MINE!" or "OMGPWNED!" or a bunch of other random things which caused him to balk at a pop fly which would've been an infield fly had he looked like he was going to, y'know, catch it. It's not his fault Zimm rushed a throw that would've gotten an out at second. Now, it is his fault he gave up all the hits after those plays, but it's not his fault he had to get six outs in one inning. Of course, none of those plays were errors, meaning that the official record blamed Speigner. It wasn't his fault.

I missed the first inning today; I should probably reword that "missed" the first inning today (air quotes!). Micah Bowie promptly ate it, as far as I can tell. Of course, the Nats did come back, only to give it back late and end the Padres series the same way they ended the Dodgers series: with a 1-2 record.

Coming up next? The Pirates, who feature a predominantly lefty rotation and no offense to speak of. I'm going to the game on Tuesday, which means that, yes - I'm seeing two Mike Bascik starts in a row.

Why'd I move here again?

Game Report from May 30th

So I finally got to RFK for my first game (yeah, I know; I didn't live in DC before now). As games go, it wasn't terribly exciting from my perspective; I really only got into the game once a group of Dodger fans 3 sections over started making a lot of noise in the top of the 9th. I don't have a problem with making noise when you're the away team - it's a great opportunity to be a prick, since ....well, everyone expects it of you - but don't wait until the 9th to cheer your team on to victory. If you're gonna be that guy, you can't be that guy only at the end of the game - you've got to be that guy from the beginning. Otherwise you're an effective bandwagoneer, and there's no fun in that.

Anyway, I'm going to handle this in the stupidest way I know how: the mock interview.

What'd you think of RFK?
It seemed to be pretty plainly designed as a football stadium. That's not a bad thing, really - it was just slightly disorienting at first. The crowds weren't too bad, and I can't really speak to the facilities or the concessions, as I didn't use either of them.

How'd the game look early?
I figured the Nats had a shot; Bascik did a good job through the first couple of innings and Derek Lowe was going to three-ball counts on almost everyone in the first two innings. Church got CS on what I think was a botched hit-and-run - Lowe threw it near Schneider's feet. Lowe was missing low and away on righties big-time through the first couple of innings, and I figured he'd compensate by throwing mid-in on righties.

And yet that didn't happen. Why?
Lowe found his groove somewhere around Nook's first AB (and, while we're at it: no balls hit out of the infield tonight for the Nookster, although Garciaparra made a good play his first AB to rob him of a double). He rattled off 11 straight ground balls or strikeouts (one of those was FLop's single through the middle).

It's frustrating watching a groundball pitcher when he's on. He'll make the opposition look foolish if he's a great groundballer - or just ineffective if he's okay at what he does. Lowe falls into the latter camp, and even though he was racking up the pitch count (brought on by many three-ball counts), he still had plenty left in the tank. That was the case here.

Meanwhile, Bascik was giving up line drives left and right. The two runs scored in the 5th were definitely legit; both Gonzo and Ethier had well-hit balls, and ....for the love of god, don't walk the pitcher. Why do the guys who suck (Pierre, the pitchers) scare the Nats?

When did it go to hell?
Thanks go to Cristian Guzman and Ray King for that.

Guzmania? Booted an easy ground ball. I was actually explaining the concept of unearned runs to my girlfriend when she asked, "So if Russell Martin hits a HR both runs are unearned, right?" ... and sure enough, that happened about a minute later. (Sadly, this was not a mojo-changing experience, but it was funny.) He also lucked the hell out with both his hits; I thought the first one should've been an error (booted grounder by Abreu + bad throw) and the second one was cheese - but the Starcraft "OMG 4 POOL" kind of way.

Ray King? 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 ER. The walk? To the pitcher. Of course. Saul Rivera allowed Lowe to score.

...that about covers it.

Time Capsule: Dear Jason - Sorry!

(Editor's note: this is the final in a series of three articles I wrote last week and didn't post until now. I look forward to forgetting to update for a month.)

I was wrong. Totally, entirely, completely wrong.

After Jason Bergmann walked half the RFK concession staff in his first start of the season, I figured he was going to be embarrassing. Not just bad - completely inept. His next couple of starts weren't as jaw-droppingly bad - the control was better, and he was turning some of those walks into Ks.

His next few starts after those were better; however, I still had his first start seared into my brain and I chalked up this success to dumb luck - he's missing bats now, but that's just because everyone is willing to swing at the slop he's throwing. That won't last through the next game. Or the one after that. If not then, it'll be over next week. Meanwhile, we moved past the small sample size part of the season - he was still dealing.

By now, I had started to figure that he'd be okay in the middle of the rotation; the threat to blow up is there, but it's not as likely as I thought. (And really, who isn't a threat to blow up in the Nats' 2007 rotation?) And then .... Monday night. You've probably (edit: ...by now, definitely. From everyone else) read about it already - 7 innings of no-hit ball. I was already starting to believ, but now? He's the staff ace.

(edit: the following paragraph is hilarious in retrospective; Bergmann went on the DL on the 18th, retroactive to the 15th)

Of course, that's not entirely his doing; with both Hill and the Delicate Flower on the DL, he's as much the de facto ace as he is the de jure ace. Were they both healthy, he'd probably be the #2 guy behind Hill. I wouldn't complain if he was the ace, though.

Question for discussion: let's say both Patterson and Hill come back healthy and dealing. How do they get ordered in the rotation - and more importantly, does the Nats' staff start to sniff league average? My heart quickens at the prospect.

--------------------------------

Postscript: of course, most of this is kind of irrelevant now, thanks to Bergmann's DL stint. Unfortunately, that also means the Nats' first three starters are on the DL, which: good times. Still, there's more here than I thought there was going to be at first. Right now? I'll take that.

Time Capsule: Everybody Line up to Jump over the Cliff

(Editor's note: this is the second of a series of three articles I wrote last week and didn't post until now. Still, since I put forth the effort I didn't want to have them go to waste.)

The previous post was silver lining; now it's back to the dark cloud. The good news is that in Shawn Hill's last start, he threw 5 innings of no-hit ball. The bad news is that he had to leave the game early due to elbow trouble - and a few days later he landed on the DL. Oddly enough, he went on the DL officially for a torn labrum in his non-pitching shoulder.

------------------------------------------

I'm reminded of a Dilbert cartoon. In it, Dilbert asks Wally why he hasn't responded to Dilbert's inquiry (we don't know what he asked about; it's not really relevant); was it just a simple oversight or something more sinister? Wally answers that it's the sinister reason; he's withholding information in an attempt to inflate his own value. (The strip's last panel shows Alice stealing Wally's computer tower behind his back, which is funny but not really important to the point at hand.)

I can't help but feel this is the case here; when it's been fairly obvious for a while now that Hill's elbow was troubling him, why is he on the DL due to labrum issues? Are the Nats hiding something hideous? It would suck if a MRI of Hill's elbow revealed the internal equivalent of Shredded Wheat - but if it does, shouldn't we know? It's not going to kill all hope for the season if that's the case. (You can't kill something that's already dead! Especially if you're not in a zombie movie.) What would suck is hearing that it's a different injury entirely at first - and then having his elbow knock him out for the season.

To be fair, I could be overreacting. Maybe it is his labrum that's really the problem. If it is, great; while he's resting that it'll give his elbow time to recover as well. At the very least it won't hurt any more than it currently does - and that's a good thing (edit: Captain Obvious to the rescue; I need to edit my work better). I'm just afraid we'll get the "there's been setbacks" articles soon. If he's done, he's done - but if he's done when you say he's not, that kills.

(Postscript: news from May 19 says Hill feels fine.)

Time Capsule: On Winning Steaks and Sweeps

(Editor's note: this is the first of a series of three articles I wrote last week and didn't post until now. Still, since I put forth the effort I didn't want to have them go to waste.)

Winning fixes a lot of problems. Actually, "fix" is probably too strong a word - "glosses over" would be a better phrase. The Nats' recent 4-game winning streak (edit: May 11-14) sure didn't fix much - but it self pretty good. There's still plenty of dark cloud to this silver lining (is at a good sign you need to go on a run to break the .333 mark?), but they'll be plenty of time to talk about that dark cloud this season. Let's focus on some positives:

- Starting pitching. Jason Bergmann and Shawn Hill had two outstanding starts - and not just in the "oh, he got us into the 7th down by 1" way; they threw a combined 12 innings of no-hit ball. Heck, even Jason Simontacchi picked up his first win in 4 yeras. Matt Chico managed to not look totally lost out there, too. I wouldn't expect this every time out, but stringing together four decent starts in a row? I'll take it.

- Good bullpen work. Absent a true closer for most of the weekend, the Nats didn't do too bad without one. Yeah, they'll have bad weeks (too much use will cause everyone to implode at some point), but when they're on they seem to do well as a group. There's enough skill and - dare I say - talent to not be completely incendiary most of the time. This weekend, they weren't.

- Clutch hitting. Where has this been all year? I can't recall actually being confident that a runner on third with less than two outs will score until this weekend. To be fair, the Nats were bound to improve to the mean eventually; it was nice to see that happen in conjunction with good pitching. (Also, I dont know if an inside-the-park HR counts as clutch, but it was still a lot of fun!)

Of course, no team is as good as they are when they're winning, and I'm not so optimistic as to think they've turned some mythical corner and will proceed to challenge .400 (or - god forbid - .500). Still, it's fun to see everything mesh together neatly every once in a while. Probably more importantly, it's good to see that this team's individual components can be better than what we've seen before - and especially what we saw from them during the last road trip (edit: April 30 - May 9). It's not perfect, but you know what? I'll take it.

Nats/Brewers: A Postscript

Good teams find ways to win games they probably shouldn't. By that standard, the Brewers are a good team; the fact they've won any games started by Dave Bush would indicate that. They're winning even with what's effectively an offensive zero at the hot corner - another sign they're good. It wouldn't be too surprising to see them continue this start through the season, and if they do - good for them. It's been hard times in Milwaukee for a while, and this season's incarnation of the Brew Crew is both young and talented.

What's the inverse of a good team? By the previous definition, it'd be a team that loses games it should win. The Nats certainly qualify here - bad pitching, bad hitting (especially with RISP), squandering what good pitching they do get, etc., ad nausem. It'd then stand to reason that when a good team faces a bad team, the good team should win going away - and that's what happened.

Take Monday night as the first example. Matt Chico had his first quality start - 7 IP, and a little high on the hits, but given his previous outings it wasn't terrible. It was probably his first good start as a Nat. Low pitch count, too - only 93 pitches through 7. Of those pitches, 92 were good - but 1 of them was a duck crushed by Geoff Jenkins for a 3-run HR. That type of result should happen; bad pitches, by their nature, should be punished. Still, it's kind of bad luck, but not so much that it's totally impossible to believe. In addition, it's only a three-run deficit - most teams can come back from that.

Unfortunately, most teams aren't the Nats (who, as previously stated, can't hit their way out of a wet paper bag). They had opportunities, in a fashion - 1st/3rd with 2 outs in the 4th (popout), a ground rule double with 2 out in the 6th (K). Their best opportunity was in the 9th, hands-down - 1st and 2nd with only one out. Granted, by that point they're probably not going to win anyway... but a swinging K and a flyout won't bring the runners home. Not great. With unexpectedly good pitching from the back end of your rotation, you have to take advantage of it... and the Nats didn't on Monday.

So what about Tuesday? The offense clicked, kind of - they scored in the first inning for the first time in ...well, a while. They scored four runs total - most in the later innings, but it's still four runs. (Why yes, David Bush was starting for the Brewers; how'd you know?) However, Jason Simontacchi couldn't get it together, allowing 4 runs in only 6 IP, leaving Winston Abreu (welcome to the big leagues!) to give up the 5th and ultimately deciding run. Blown opportunites this game? Let's check it out!
- 2nd inning: 1st and 2nd, nobody out (DP / 6-3)
So that wasn't really the problem. This time, it can just be blamed on bad pitching and questionable defense (read: Robert Fick, who's another issue entirely).

What about Wednesday? Well, we can revisit the mantra of crummy hitting (5 hits) if we want. Lack of clutch hitting? 2nd / 3rd with 2 outs in the 2nd (K) kind of counts - they got there on a WP. 1st and 2nd with one out in 6th (pop, flyout) was the only other opportunity; you have to get hits first to fail in the clutch! So, what was the problem here? This time, blame the relievers - the combination of Jesus Colome and Micah Bowie in particular. 1-1 going into the bottom of the 8th, 3-1 Brewers coming out. Why? Just your usual 1B / 1B / 1B / WP two-run inning (which are normally the most painful; they're not hitting the ball hard, but it's just where the defenders aren't).

So: three games, three losses in three different ways. The Nats are doomed, right? Fortunately, that's not quite the case (but it's close!). There is some talent, according to the technical definition of the term. That'll mean there's a little light at the end of the tunnel that may not be an oncoming train. The Nats won't continue to be as abysmal as they have been with RISP (...right?). At the very least, statistical variation means they'll win some games - there will be some combinatino of good pitching, decent hitting, and roughly passable defense. They can all occur separately - as they did last week - but they'll happen on the same night sometimes, too. Let's just hope it happens another 32 times the rest of the season.

6 thoughts over the last 2 games

1: The Jason Bergmann bubble popped on Friday. It was a fun ride while it lasted, and this time around it wasn't due to what I was afraid of happening (bad control). He was just hit hard - 8 H in only 6 IP. K/BB ratio wasn't bad (2:1), and I don't remember offhand how much of the outing could be blamed on bad D (my guess: probably one of the hits, maybe two). Still, it's at least a theoretical sign of concern / encouragement; I've been worried for a while that if/when Bergmann would implode, it'd be of the Oliver Perez "I'm walking everyone in the stadium" variety. This wasn't that - it was just getting beat up. That, in it of itself, is expected.

2: John Patterson left the game early yesterday. Surprised? I'm not - but he was sidelined by a bicep problem. Pick your joke (increasing levels of cynicism):
A - at least it wasn't his forearm
B - he's always been injured
C - he strained it giving himself a hug to feel better
D - this does nothing to fix his poor broken soul
Bottom line, this would hurt in theory, but since he's effectively - at best - the #3 starter now anyway, whatever. In this rotation, #3 = replacement level.

3: The Jesus Flores "two guys are" Watch(ing) continues. 3-for-4 on Friday, and if Schenider continues to bite it, I'll be curious to see if Bodes can either spin him off for something that could possibly be useful.

If you've ever played sim baseball, this next paragraph will make sense - if not, hang on. The catching situation is like having a 1-star starting C and a 2-star prospect in the big leagues. The prospect might be useful, but the starter sure as hell isn't. Flip the starter to see what you can get - if it's some middling crap middle reliever, so be it, but at least he's cheaper. Put the prospect in and see what happens; if you're not in a pennant race, who cares? You were getting a zero there anyway, it might as well be a cheaper zero.

(Kasten would be so proud!)

4: Ryan Langerhans watch: 0-3 with 2 Ks, first PH off the bench on Friday and Saturday and defensive replacement in LF (for Kasto). Trade back! Maybe they can talk Langerhans into hitting righty.

5: Three boos for Levale Speigner walking in the bases loaded yesterday. Not that he was really going to do anything useful anyway, but walking in a run is probably the most disheartening situation to be in as a fan - and walking in three in a row? Kind of inexcusable. Of course, once the runs started to be earned for him he got out of the inning - hope he gets some kind of present for knocking Patterson's ERA up (and his arbitration number down!).

6: Zimm hasn't had a bad last couple of games: 4-for-8 with a couple of walks. One double both games, with a SB yesterday (whee) to boot. I'm thinking that with an increase in walks, Zimm's value will go back up; I don't have the time at the moment to go delve into his past history to see if that's actually a useful indicator or not, but it makes intuitive sense. His OBP is only .309 so far, but that's well above the .236 (OBP Mendoza?) he was showing a couple of weeks ago.

Spinning the Wheels

First off, my apologies for not posting here in a while; I was out of town and out of touch for a few days this past weekend, and the last couple of days have been lost to studying for finals. Updates will be semi-sporadic for a few days as finals continue and graduation stuff kicks in. (We'll address late May when we get there.)

Anyway, getting back to the topic at hand, it's gotten around the wires and blogs by now, but Chris Snelling has been traded for Ryan Langerhans, who ended up on the A's. Mariners fans can now immolate themselves when Snelling does well against them, and Braves fans can now do the same when Langerhans ....nah, who am I kidding. My initial reaction to the deal was somewhere solidly in the "WTF?" territory; that can be blamed on my perceptions of Snelling (not quite as rose-colored as USS Mariner, but probably not too connected with reality either) and Langerhans (bad). Admittedly, I didn't know much about Langerhans beyond he was one of those multiple Braves' OFs last year - I didn't even know he was pawned off to the A's.

Now that I've had a chance to process the deal, I'm coming up with ...well, treading water. Maybe it's a step forward, but it's not a giant step forward - maybe it's just a small step back. I don't know. Langerhans brings multi-positional defense and (depending on who you talk to) either a slightly worse bat than Snelling's or one approximately equal. In addition, he's under contract for another year than Snelling was. In it of itself, that's not bad - and if he can do something to keep one of the two Black Holes of Suck out of the lineup, then I can't blame him too much for that. (He can play CF; it remains to be seen if he will.)

Of course, we don't know how Langerhans will be used. If he's used like Snelling-plus, then I really can't complain; he wouldn't be actively sapping Church or Kearns of ABs beyond what they'd need for a rest period, he'd be a good late-inning defender (one that actually would be a defensive improvement), and he ...well, unless they teach him to switch hit, he won't be a righty bat off the bench. Can't win them all, I guess. In addition, if he's platooning in center then that will - as implied earlier - keep Logan out of the game, which has to be a good thing.

On the other hand, this isn't a gamebreaking trade. This looks like the equivalent of changing a font style. You can do it - and some people may like it a little more, which is good, right? - but it doesn't change the content. It won't turn the page you're designing into a masterpiece, and it won't turn this team into a contender. That's okay - if you think the team's going to compete this year, you're nuts anyway. However, making too many of these trades just seems like Bodes is shuffling the deck. One? Sure. Two? Eh, maybe. But unless this is going somewhere, it's not really that worth it.

Keep an Eye Out

Another day, another loss. There's nothing really that hopeful in the loss, although let's see what we can dig up that may be useful.

- John Patterson at least had movement on his pitches. Like so many of his starts so far, his velocity started out strong and then decreased as the game wore on. There's nothing inherently bad about that - most pitchers will lose a few MPH off their fastball between the 1st and the 6th innings - but the magnitude that Patterson was losing it was impressive. Yesterday was a little better; his velocity didn't start really dropping off until about 70-75 pitches in (somewhere around Howard's IBB), which is a good start. His stats weren't helped by the blowtorch job that Micah Bowie did, though. Now if Patterson can start hitting his spots, he might actually start living up to the promise he has.

- Ryan Zimmerman is at least beginning to hit the ball better now; so far it's right at fielders - and the GIDP last night was positively Vidro-esque - but at some point he's going to stop aiming them directly at the second baseman. Just a heads-up if he breaks out in the next week or so.

- The defense, it is horrid. I mean, it's not something we didn't expect to some degree (and I'm going to regret saying this when Logan and Guz come back, I think), but this is impressive. It's not all errors and wild throws, either. It's more positioning and bad breaks; I'll cut Belliard some slack mainly because he's basically a runaway train out there and the reason he's playing rover is because he'd make Vidro look like he has plus range if he was on the grass. I don't know if this will change at all if/when the injured players come back; my guess is it'll improve, if only because players will be at their natural position(s). I don't know if it'll help the boneheaded plays - and how much it will hurt the offense is something else to explore entirely, at a later date - but ...well, it can't hurt. If the stupidity is cut down, then the team will improve; it's that simple.

Like last week, don't expect many posts from now until Monday. The smart money is on "zero" for the number of posts between now and then, although if I get computer access that may change.

Channeling the Time Machine

The Nats had a good shot of winning tonight; Jason Bergmann put together another good outing, and although he still scares the piss out of me, this is three good outings in a row. By the numbers, that's three quality starts, meaning that Shawn Hill might actually have to move over on the "unsupported quality starts" bench.

Still, the most shocking part about Bergmann's start wasn't that it was good, it was that he left with a 3-2 lead after the 6th. That's really all that you can ask for from these starters, right? Throw fairly well, hope the team puts up a few runs and then let the bullpen close it out. We're not going to see many complete games from these guys, and we're not going to see many blowouts, eihter. The pitchers lack the stamina, and the bats lack the punch. As a result, we're basically left with what happened last night; a relatively close game going into the top of the 7th that was - at this point - still winnable.

Unfortunately, the Nats jumped into the time machine - way back to a couple of weeks ago - and put together some bad innings in the 7th and 8th. Before we go any further, this wasn't Acta's fault; he can't be blamed for the complete ineffectiveness of the relievers, and he certainly can't be blamed for throws that the cutoff man decided to not get. (Well, he can't be blamed for them now. If these problems persist .... maybe.)

So we're 3-2 in the top of the 7th. FLop singled to lead off, Belliard (who's starting to make me feel stupid about the whole "he'll be great out of the 2-hole" line of thought I had two weeks ago) grounded to second to advance Lopez. However, Ryan Zimmerman - who might just want to change his name to Snakebit at this point - lined directly to Chase Utley, who wasn't playing where second basemen usually play but more where he would play if he was trying to catch someone stealing. All the same, he caught the liner and doubled off FLop, end of inning.

Enter Saul Rivera in the bottom of the 7th, who promptly gave up the lead with a HR to Aaron Rowand. After a Ruiz single and an Abraham Nunez sacrifice (which: it's a tie game, Manuel must have had no confidence in Madson's ability to get down a sac), exit Saul Rivera and enter Micah Bowie. Bowie did get out of the 7th with no problems, but now it's tied.

Top of the 8th: nothing to see here. Church singles to left.

Bottom of the 8th, Bowie is back in. It's not a bad play here, really: Utley and Howard - the first two guys Bowie would face - are both lefties. Hope for the best with the matchup advantage (since Manuel's not PHing for them) and then let Rauch come in. It's a good idea in theory, and it'd probably work decently. However, Bowie fired a pitch almost behind Utley (hit him) and struck out Howard. Not unforgiveably terrible. Anyway, exit Bowie and enter Jon Rauch.

Ruach hasn't had much luck lately; he blew up just a few days ago, and now he came in with 1 on and 1 out in a game that - had he gotten out of the inning unscathed - might've lasted a while. Again. He didn't have it tonight either - at least not after the first part of the Burrell AB (where he got ahead 0-2). He walked Burrell on 4 straight, and then Wes Helms launched a crud missle into center. You know those hits, the kind of dumpers that drive you nuts when they happen to your team because the ball is absolutely in no-man's land, and that guy is coming around to score no matter what. It was a crud missile.

The Yahoo! play-by-play reads as follows for this: - W. Helms singled to center, C. Utley scored, P. Burrell to second. However, that doesn't quite describe what happened: Ryan Church then turned around and threw to third - again, not a bad idea: it stops Burrell from advancing. However, the throw missed the cutoff man and missed Zimmerman too. Burrell scored, and Helms was in position to trot home on a Carlos Ruiz single. 6-3, end of game (effectively).

So ...who's at fault, right? I can't really blame Rivera too much, Bowie basically did his job, and Rauch's just not going to have it some nights. Church's throw didn't help matters, but if it's on-target maybe we only have a 5-3 loss. It wasn't a game-breaker. Maybe you can blame the lack of hitting with RISP, but Zimm's double play was more a result of great D than a giant clunker of a hit.

More than anything else, it's these kind of losses that hurt. The Nats had a clear shot to win the game ... and yet, they couldn't. Three relievers in a row just got unlucky, and an errant throw killed what little shot the Nats had to win at that point. It's frustrating; we know after the last week that there is the talent to win games like this, but we can't all the time. On an intrinsic level, I know this ...and yet I hope I'm wrong.

Still, we'll see if today will turn out any different than yesterday. In all the ways that entails.

Masochism 101: Looking at the Nats' Staff

I don't know why I'm even posting this; as the title suggests, I must enjoy pain. Still, since I'm here and yesterday was an off day, I feel like something should be said, even if it's largely cursory. (Alternate explanation: I feel bad for not posting anything last weekend, or this upcoming weekend, as I'll be out of town yet again.) With that in mind, let's bust out the old grading scale, and our criteria are as follows:

1 - effectiveness (60%). This includes not allowing runners to score - and, failing that, at least stranding them.
2 - durability (20%). In short, what's the likelihood of these guys being stand-ins in those old Timex commercials where the guy smacks the hell out of a fly on his Timex watch?
3 - length of appearance (20%). For the love of god, keep the bullpen from killing itself.

John Patterson (D-)
He'd get an F, but at least he's struck out some guys. Well, relatively speaking. He avoids a F mainly based on his singularly-realized potential and the possibility he may actually be injured. (No, I'm not letting that go.) Average innings per start: 4.5. Good times.

Shawn Hill (B+)
Story of the season so far and the de facto ace - he will be the ace once Patterson gets injured. Not a whole lot of press outside of the Nats' circles, but that will change. Two quality starts in a row so far, and he's got better odds than most of continuing that streak.

Jason Bergmann (C-)
I really don't know what to make of him. He's durable for a Nats' pitcher, and he stands at least a passing chance of going 6 ... but I'd be lying if he doesn't spend the entire outing scaring the hell out of me. If you believe that the Bodes talk straightened him out, then good for you; I'd place it more on Randy St. Claire myself. Fittingly enough, this grade could bounce either way. Another bad outing puts him somewhere in the D range and another good outing puts it at C+ or so. Still scared, though.

Matt Chico (D)
He gets a small pass over Patterson because we expected him to suck. He's also thrown (.1) more innings. Still looks kind of lost out there, though.

Jerome Williams (F)
Human gas can! I'm surprised, really; I figured he'd be good for a 5.something ERA. It's still possible, but he may be doing that in Columbus.

So the question now is this: who else is better than these guys? I have no idea. Check Columbus, maybe; Billy Traber? Tim Redding? Joel Hanrahan? Maybe. Would they be any better than Williams, Chico, or (god forbid) Patterson? Probably not too much so, but I doubt they could be that much worse.

Better Late than Never: a Phillies Preview

Current season series record: 1-1 (last series: 1-1 ... duh.)

Probable starters for the series can be found here.

Well, so much for not being last in the NL. Bombing the last two in Florida will do that, and moreso when the team looks like it broke out the early-season style beatdowns. Still, the Phils aren't the Marlins (and does that sentence look weird to type); they haven't demonstrated a consistent ability to be ...well, good. Granted, it's not like the Marlins are a bunch of world-beaters, but the Phils have yet to get it going - hopefully that'll hold off for a few days!

There's not a ton here that's different from what it was last week; Charlie Manuel is still insane, Brett Myers is still not starting, Cole Hamels isn't injured (yet?). The Phils do throw a couple of lefties in the series: Moyer on Tuesday and Hamels on Thursday. In between is the slated start of Shawn Hill (more on that in a minute) and Jon Lieber.

Hill's start is only slated; there's no guarantee yet he'll be able to make it, thanks to a bad baserunning call this weekend. That in turn resulted in a strained forearm to his non-pitching arm (you can breathe again); this is a fantastic summary of what happened. If he goes, then the Nats have a great shot of winning ...well, one. I'm not sure they don't get swept here. It doesn't hurt that he goes against new rotation addition Jon Lieber.

So ...yeah. Sweep? Maybe. I don't quite think it's going to be that bad, but I think it could get ugly quickly. To say I was confident in the Nats' chances at this point would be pretty direct folly. I don't have much reason for that beyond reading about the ugly performances this weekend - the less said about them, the better - but I'm not sold they'll immediately rebound, either. Let's hope I'm wrong.

Quick Hit

Can't post very long, but I'm wondering if Scott Olsen's healthy. It seems surprising that a guy who's as good a pitcher as he is isn't doing better this season. I'm doubly surprised that the not-very-good-against-lefites Nats offense was able to put 10 hits on him in 5 innings.

Kudos to the bullpen, although I'm also a little concerned about the extra-innings workload. There's not a ton of talent there - we know that - but again, there's not a ton of talent in the rotation either, and there's no guarantee that the rotation will pitch a ton of 6-7 inning starts. At least Shawn Hill had his second quality start this season; I'm ready to anoint him the staff ace, if nobody else is. Oddly, this time the breakdown in the bullpen was due to Rauch and Cordero; we've seen this before from Cordero, but Rauch ...well, that's a little odd. My guess / hope is it's just a momentary blip.

Still, we got our win; if we can get another one in the next two games, that's just gravy at this point.

White Rabbit Alert

So - yeah, once again I'm late, once again I missed yesterday's game. Fortunately, it would seem yesterday's starter - the one, the only John Patterson - missed it too. Presumably his eyelids were stopped up. Either way, he was good for 4 innings and 80 pitches of suspect ball with suspect movement, and ...eh, I'll write more about him later. For now, this sums up my feelings on it.

Anyway, we're facing the Marlins this weekend - not the first time either. We all remember the "performance" in the first series of the season, as much as we'd rather not. Blame the craptastic performances across the board - bad pitching, bad hitting, bad injuries, you name it. The series was bailed out from total uselessness thanks to Jorge Julio, who's since on gone on the DL with acute suckitis. Now the Nats travel to Florida - why should it be any better?

For starters, the team is better; the pitching can pass for mediocre on a good day, and the hitting is starting to show signs of life. True, Zimmerman has yet to really come to life, but that won't last. Lopez is starting to hit, and Snelling is fine as an 8 hitter in a full-time role.

Hill's the Nats' best starter and he's in the series. Chico and Williams are both works in progress at this point, but Chico has at least faced the Marlins this season. He actually didn't do badly; blame the defense. It'll be interesting to see if he does any better this time around, especially given his recent struggles.

Honestly, I'm not expecting much. There's a reason for the Nats to win each game (Hill on Friday, Chico's defense waking up, Mitre kind of sucks), but 1-2 may be the best we can hope for. I hope I'm wrong, and not in an "hey, we were outscored 123-0" kind of way.

With a Little Bit of Hope

Well. This won't be the first opportunity this season the Nats have for a split (thanks, rainouts!), but it will be the first opportunity they have to win both games of a 2-game series. If you would've told me the first win would've come in a 13-inning affair that had the kind of bullpen line where D'Angelo Jimenez was the next pitcher in line, I'm not sure I would have believed you.

Once again, I can't really speak much to the game quality; I had to leave shortly after Eaton's double off the wall, which means - among other things - I totally missed the comeback and lead in the bottom of the 2nd and 3rd. I think this puts the Nats at 3-1 at games I can't follow. Good news: I can't follow today's game, either.

Bergmann was ...well, Bergmann. When he's on, he's - at best - effectively wild. Other people have said this already, but he's starting to remind me of Oliver Perez, just without the talent. This latest start gives him 14 Ks in the last 12.1 innings against only 5 walks, which is good. However, since Jason Voorhees made the first start, that not-bad ratio is actually 15 K / 11 BB, which blows. If we get more Bergmann starts, then there's a shot of respectability. Personally, I kind of doubt it; I expect Voorhees to show up shortly.

Saul Rivera picked up a hold while allowing 2 hits in 0.0 IP; good job, Saul! Way to allow those inherited runners to score!

Aside from that, there are a few things to take away from the game:
- Zimm can still play D; he turned a fantastic DP in the 12th that ...well, it probably didn't kill a rally, but since he was the pivot man, being able to whip it across the diamond to nail Howard for the second part of the DP was impressive. Now, factor in that he was playing basically out of position and that throw came from second with a guy bearing down on him - I'm impressed. He went 1-for-6, but that play alone will get a pass.
- It was All Hands Must Go night in the bullpen; everyone got some work. Bad performers of the night were the aforementioned Saul Rivera and Chad Cordero. Does he have the yips early? Hopefully this is just a phase. Still, the fact that the bullpen threw 5 scoreless innings (although Jesus Colome "scattered" a hit and 3 walks in 1.2 IP) shouldn't be overlooked.
- Brian Schneider hit a HR! He went 2-for-6 with 4 LOB, not great - but he's coming around, maybe. Maybe?
- Converted reliever Brett Myers allowed 2 hits in one inning with a K. No word if he uncorked a "wild pitch" and hit Charlie Manuel in the head.

First pitch at 1:05 today; staff "ace" John Patterson goes against Jamie Moyer. I couldn't advocate skipping work, but Gameday Audio is dirt cheap if you want to go that route.

I'm a Bad Fan, Vol. 1,482

So - if you totally revamp your blog to talking about the Nats, and then the first thing you do after doing that is miss the first game, ....well, you'd be me. It's not entirely my fault; I had to stay late at work. By the time work was done, so was the game, and the Braves walked away with a 6-4 win.

This was a hybrid of both the incredibly early-season struggles the Nats had (let's fall behind before we come up to bat!) and the slightly-more-recent ability to generate offense (the winning run was on base as late as the 7th inning). By the time the first was over, the Braves had sent 8 guys to the plate and Jerome Williams had pitched 36 pitches, and I'm left to believe that the McCann walk was of the unintentional intentional variety.

After that, it was more of the Nats' early-season woes; Smoltz sent down the side in order the first two innings before Chris Snelling worked out a walk in the third, coming around to score thanks to a sacrifice and FLop's infield single + throwing error.

Fast-forward to the bottom of the 7th (current score: 5-2). Once again, another rally was started by a Schneider non-hit followed by Snelling coming up big, and FLop contributing another RBI. It's good to see this from FLop, who's had a rough go of it early on. Still, two runs scored, and with Kearns at second, Zimm struck out and Meathook flied out. End of rally, end of game; Rafael Soriano and Bob Wickman closed the door. Another day, another game.

Aside from that, some other minor notes:
- FLop finally seems to be warming up; he's 6 for his last 14 with a stolen base (and a CS).
- Snelling continues his semi-intermittent hitting pace (5 for his last 10 if you ignore Monday's game). As bats in the number 8 hole go, you could do a lot worse.
- Scheider continued his odd pattern of getting critical non-hits, igniting a rally in the 7th. A double-switch going in the top of the 7th turned Schnieder into the de facto leadoff hitter, knocking Robert Fick out of the game.
- Speaking of Fick ... in the 6 spot? I'm a big fan of Acta, but I don't get it. Eh, he'll get a pass on this from me for now.


In other news, the Kory Casto experiement is on hold; he's been sent back down to Columbus. Not too surprising; as I mentioned before, Snelling has done a damn fine job hitting that far down in the order, and I'm personally wondering when he'd move up to hit 7th (or 6th!). Casto needs the everyday PT, which he wasn't going to get with the big club.

On the other hand, this is going to create some interesting debate as to who should start when Logan comes back from the DL with Snelling and Church hitting well.

It's a rebirth!

Well, that second option I was talking over has actually come through. As a result, two things are going to happen here:

1 - all (both) of my smaller focused posts are going to move to a different site. I'll certainly crosslink it when the first article goes up there, although I don't know when that'll be.
2 - this blog will actually be transformed. I figure that since I follow the Nats anyway, I might as well go ahead and change it over into a Nats-focused blog with respect to its baseball content. Now, that's not going to be the case for the other sports; college football will still be here (I need to talk to the other guy to make sure that he's up for it next year, too), and I'll probably throw some college basketball posts on here during the dead zone from January to March.

I'd make a joke about content here, but with 2 updates in the past 2 days, I think I'm due for a month's vacation at this rate, right?

Ignore the dust in here

My apologies in advance; I'm going to be revamping the blog layout over the next few days. There won't be any difference in content - make your own joke - but the appearance will be changing. I don't know what it'll change to yet - just something I like more. I'd expect a reduction in the font size, maybe a widening of the text box so there's not as much dead space. Link update, perhaps.

There may be a secondary, much bigger change coming in the next couple of weeks; I'll update you again if that's the case.