(Disclaimer: James' part of this was written before the game, and I didn't look at the score before writing up my half of it. Let's see if this works!)
I'm going to type this slowly for emphasis. Papa John's.com Bowl - are you serious? You can't just have a URL for your bowl name... it's just wrong. Okay, I'll make an exception if it's purepwnage.com but even then why not call it the purepwnage.com Uber Micro Bowl? Inexcusable, frankly. I don't know that The Birmingham Bowl (what it was last season) is that much better, but gimme a break here.
Cincinnati Bearcats (by Coach Lawrence)
After a 1-3 start in 2006, Cincinnati served notice that they would be a force to be reckoned with in 2007. First they came within 6 points of beating eventual Big East champ Louisville at Papa John's Stadium. Then they won big home games against South Florida and Rutgers. The Bearcats went on to win the International Bowl in Toronto, where fans wondered why the receivers didn't take a running start.
This season, Cincy opened with a 6-0 start including a blowout win over Oregon State and a tough road win at Rutgers. A loss to reeling Louisville wasn't as shocking as the difference in records indicated, but a loss the following week to Pittsburgh banished the Bearcats from the top 25. They climbed back in with victories over South Florida and UConn before being overmatched against West Virginia and overmatching Syracuse.
Cincinnati has a solid QB in Ben Mauk, but their real strength is controlling the game. The 'Cats outrush their opponents by almost 50 ypg and spread it out just about evenly between Mauk and three RBs. While their defensive totals rank just above average, their first quarter stats against both the pass and the run show a story of Cincinnati throwing the first punch and riding out the rest of the game... offensively as well with steadily declining passing attempts and generally declining rushing attempts. This is also a defense that only gets better as they get further ahead, allowing a lower QB rating and, until the margin gets huge, a lower rushing ypc as the lead increases.
Game Plan
1. Make the game about you. This is a clear mismatch which, as long as they play their game, Cincinnati should win.
2. Jump out early and keep your foot on their throat. It's worked all season.
3. Take away the run. USM is a top 25 rushing offense and a pretty average passing team. Stack the box early and build a lead - force the Golden Eagles to go to the air.
Southern Miss (by Coach Pendley)
If you're looking for the runaway winner of the "Dumbest Move Between the End of the Season and the Bowl" award, Southern Miss wins that award hands-down. Old head coach Jeff Bower (record: 119-82-1) was unceremoniously dumped after a 7-5 season. Bower had also brought USM to 10 bowls in 17 seasons, including 9 bowls over the last 11 years. His bowl record was 6-4 - but that was also 5-2 over the last seven. Why was he fired? Near as I can tell, USM fans and alumni got complacent - Southern Miss wasn't exactly good before Bower stepped on campus except for a stint back in the '50's. Remember when Ole Miss fired David Cutcliffe and went in the crapper a few years ago? Yeah, here we go again. This time, Oklahoma St. offensive coordinator Larry Fedora gets to underperform relative to the old guy. Bower gets to go somewhere where they'll actually like him.
Most seasons, RB Damion Fletcher would be making more noise for haivng a 1,400+ yard season with 15 rushing TDs. Unfotunately for him, two different RBs topped 2,000 yards in C-USA alone. Aside from him, there's not a lot on offense other than TE Shawn Nelson, who's an actual receiving threat (rare enough in its own right). Fortunately for the Golden Eagles, they actually do a good job against the both the run and the pass (3rd and 1st in C-USA respectively), although their periphials aren't anything to write home about.
Keys to Victory:
1: Do whatever it takes to get 7 in the box. Cincinnati's pass defense isn't anything to write home about, so force them to transition to pass defense. Only at that point will Fletcher be effective; Cincy's rush D was the best in the Big East.
2: Hold onto the ball. Cincinnati thrives on the turnover; don't let them. It doesn't really matter how you protect the ball - stickum isn't totally frowned on in these parts - but USM is going to need some serious ball possession in order to win. Think 33+ minutes.
3: Protect the pass. This is doubly tough because Cincinnati is a better passing game in the first half, but it needs to happen. Cincy sports the second-best passing offense in its conference, but it's something that needs to happen. Somehow.
Saturday, December 22
Oops (or the Papa John's Bowl)
Tuesday, December 18
New Orleans Bowl: Not the Sugar Bowl, the New Orleans Bowl
In 2006, the true winner of the New Orleans Bowl was in fact the city of New Orleans. Just one year beforehand, the bowl had to be moved to a different location because of the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina.
Memphis Tigers (by Coach Pendley)
The Memphis Tigers are bowl-eligible once again. After a completely forgettable 2006 season (let's just say their only win of note was against UTEP and leave it at that), Memphis is going to its fourth bowl game over the past five seasons. Say what? Believe it or not, Memphis has been kind of a staple among the lowest tier of bowls, and this'll be their second trip back to the New Orleans Bowl. (Other trips include the GMAC Bowl - before it got drunk and wandered into January - and the Motor City Bowl. Oh boy.)
So what do the Tigers do well? Score. Lord knows they don't play defense - they gave up 56 against both UCF and ECU and 52 to SMU (but they won that game). They have the best non-Playstation QB in Conference USA in Martin Hankins, who threw for nearly 300 yards a game and 22 TDs to boot. Oh, and in the games he missed Will Hudgens threw for close to 600 yards and an additional 5 TDs. They're also an offense where the leading WR (Duke Calhoun) doesn't have the most TDs (Carlos Singleton), making life difficult for opposing secondaries. Joseph Doss (65 ypg) and T.J. Pitts (40 ypg) head an effective rushing attack.
Shockingly, Memphis has the third best passing defense in C-USA this year - although they did allow a 20/12 ratio, which is less than stellar. Contributing to the "good" pass defense is a rushing defense that's scared of the run, allowing nearly 210 yards a game on the ground. They were saved from last in the conference only by UAB spending the season fielding no defensive line. They won't win the hidden yardage game (horrible punting game, a Memphis staple), but there's a good chance that they'll win the turnover game (+9 on the season). Of course, that may not be the case - FAU is averaging a ridiculous +19 on the season.
What will it take for C-USA to notch a win over the Sun Belt?
1: Take to the air. It's a blinding statement of the obvious, but this passing game is probably the fourth-best passing offense FAU has faced all year - behind Florida, Kentucky, and Oklahoma State. Calhoun is an excellent primary receiver, Singleton will scare the safeties back every time he runs a deep route, and Maurice Jones will be able to be effective from the slot. They haven't faced a three-deep like that in a while, so take advantage of it.
2: Ball control. Quite frankly, if the defense holds FAU to under 40 that should be chalked up as a win - FAU's offense is sneakily solid. As a result, both Doss and Pitts are going to need to be effective. Doss has proven he can have a huge game (175 yards against Rice, 168 against UAB; neither rush D is any good), so he may have to move the pile a few times. As for the passing game, slants, crosses, and interior curls will be the Tigers' friend. Just don't forget to look the corner off on the curls. FAU will likely stay in the air, as leading rusher is Charles Pierre at just over 70 yards per game.
3: Spy Rusty Smith. As he goes, so do the Owls. The LB corps should expect to see plenty of play action, especially in the red zone, where Smith has put up some ridiculous numbers (18 TDs against 0 INT, a 208.20 QB rating). Thankfully, he's not a rushing threat - that's Charles Pierre, but ....yeah, the Tigers aren't going to be able to stop him anyway, so don't bother.
Florida Atlantic Owls (by Coach Lawrence)
Florida Atlantic has only been playing division I-A football since 2004, going 9-3 their first year in the upper division before suffering consecutive losing seasons.
Though Florida Atlantic might look like they crawled into the bowls with a 7-6 record, the Owls faced five BCS conference opponents, four of which are bowl-eligible including Florida, South Florida, and Kentucky. Notably, their win over Minnesota with the school's first win over a BCS conference opponent since moving up to div I-A. Indeed, in games they had a realistic chance of winning, FAU went 7-1 only dropping a game to Louisiana-Monroe. This is a team that passes the ball 52% of the time, but the focus is clearly on QB Rusty Smith as only one other player averages over 10 touches per game (RB Charles Pierre, 13).
Game Plan
1. Exploit Memphis' suspect run defense. Aim more for 55% rushing plays. Which RB wants to answer the call?
2. Pass off the run. Statistically, FAU throws better on first down and in the second half - than on other downs or in the first half. Both point to the importance of having established the running game.
3. It's just another game. This is FAU's first bowl game as a program. Forget about that.
2007 Poinsettia Bowl
In only its second year of existence, the Poinsettia Bowl moved up to the coveted opening bowl slot, which it used last December to give us a 37-7 masterpiece of TCU destroying Northern Illinois. The year before, Navy destroyed Colorado State 51-30, leading people to question why the pee-wee team from Fort Collins was invited to a bowl in the first place. There, that is the entire history of the Poinsettia Bowl.
Navy Midshipmen (by Coach Lawrence)
For the Naval Academy, 2007 has been an historic season. The Midshipmen defeated Notre Dame for the first time in 44 years, winning a thrilling 46-44 triple overtime contest by stuffing ND's attempt to pound in a two-point conversion. A blowout victory in the regular season finale against Army gave Navy an unprecedented six straight wins in the series and also gave them the Commander in Chief's Trophy for the fifth straight season. (previously, Air Force had held it for six) Along the way there have been some setbacks - a home loss to div I-AA Delaware and another home loss to Ball State marking the low points - but at 8-4 the Midshipmen roll into the bowl season with at least 8 wins for the fifth straight season.
Navy is one of the last teams left using the triple option offense. Led by Jr QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, they are the nation's only offense to average over 300 ypg rushing, at 351. When running the ball, Navy averages over 6 ypc on both first and second down. Five runningbacks average between 35 and 65 yards per game in a system that keeps defenses on their toes. The offense is extremely effective throwing on first down, though in later situations they struggle more. Defensively, the Midshipmen do give up 4.25 ypc, and the passing defense is mediocre at best.
Game Plan:
1. 5 yards on first down. Dictate the pace on the remaining downs with manageable yardage situations.
2. Patience on defense. Though Utah may try to pound Darrell Mack against the smaller defense, Navy has to like their odds of winning a rushing battle more than winning a shootout with Brian Johnson. Keep at least one safety in coverage support and don't bite the playfakes.
3. Both hands on the ball. In four losses, Navy has 7 fumbles and an average TO margin of -2. In their eight wins, they have just 4 fumbles and an average TO margin slightly under +1. All those pitches and improvised exchanges increase the risk of error - Navy must be intelligent in their decision-making and execute well so as not to give up any breaks.
Utah Utes (by Coach Pendley)
For the Utes, it wasn't the best season. Of course, that's the case any time you lose to your rival - in this case, BYU - even if the game is close. Of course, most teams would kill for 8-4 (I'm looking at you, Florida International) and a seven-game winning streak in the middle of the season. However, that winning streak was over the Who's Who of Who Cares - the "highlight" being either a) beating a dead-in-the-water TCU team 27-20 at TCU or b) beating Louisville on the road 44-35 in a game that would've been huge three years ago. Heck, even their signature win - a 44-6 slaughter of UCLA (who was ranked 11th at the time) - was largely undone by UCLA playing their scout team the second half of the season. Geting shut out by UNLV (1-7, 2-10) can also be filed under "inexcusable".
So what do these guys actually do right? Play pass defense. They had a 7 TD / 16 INT ratio on the season (that's not a misprint), only allowing an average of 188.1 yards per game. (That's including Louisville's 467-yard game.) RB Darrell Mack is the second-leading rusher in the MWC, averaging just over 100 yards a geam. They didn't do too badly in the hidden yardage / turnover games, either, coming it at 43+ yards per punt and a +10 turnover margin on the season, respectively. Of course, they're also going up against a Navy team that hasn't been formally introduced to the forward pass. Good times.
What can Utah do to win this game?
1: Take to the air. QB Brian Johnson hasn't been great with only 162 yards per game (helped by an injury sustained in the opener), but the good news is that Navy doesn't know how to actually play defense. They've allowed 31 TDs to only 9 INTs on the season, which says that the secondary doesn't play for turnovers. If Johnson can keep the ball on target, Utah should be able to go ball-control against Navy's triple option.
2: Stick 8+ in the box. Let's be honest here; Navy's leading receiver, O.J. Washington, has 22.4 yards per game receiving. They're glorified blockers. Leave your corners on an island and start assigning your LBs and safeties to Kaipo, Eric Kettani, Adam Ballard, Shun White, and Jerod Bryant (not at the same time). Seven different guys from Navy average over 30 yards per game, so don't expect to continually shut them down - but put yourself in a position to make a play. Let's be honest: the scout team isn't going to figure out how to really play against Navy's triple option, but the least you can do is give the defensive playmakers an opportunity to do just that.
3: Win the time of possession game. Utah probably needs the ball for at least 33 minutes to pull out a win, and they have the tools to do that. Get the ball in Mack's hands and play the timing route game on the pass; force Navy into a couple of quick punts and take advantage of it. Utah should win the hidden yardage game too, but since Navy lives on their rushing offense getting in a situation where Utah has to take to the air while the Midshipmen are on the ground is not a winning scenario.
The Preview of the Previews
So if anyone was actually around here reading my 17,000 word dissertations on the early bowls last year - which lasted all the way through the New Mexico Bowl for reasons I don't get myself - we made a joint decision to not do all the bowl previews with one person. What's happening this time around is that James and I are splitting the teams up and doing gameplans for each one. This'll make sense once you see it; if you've ever seen the gameplans on espn.com, think like that only with actual competent people.
The goal is to provide previews for all the bowls, so stay tuned. The unofficial goal: write 15,000 words on the BCS Championship Game. (Since I drew Ohio State, this leaves me in the less-than-enviable position of finding 500 ways to say "keep the ball out of Boeckman's hands", but them's the breaks. Sorry, Russ.)
Monday, December 3
From Ohio State to Illinois... Explanations and Analysis of the BCS Selections
There's no point in rehashing what I've stated numerous times - in my fairly meaningless opinion, Oklahoma is better than both LSU and Ohio State. OU has a better quarterback than either team, a better WR corps than Ohio State with comparable running games and defense, and a better defense than LSU with more consistent production from the WRs. However Ohio State finished with a better record and, in the final week, lots of teams on LSU's schedule moved up in the rankings while Oklahoma hurt themselves by beating Missouri twice and Texas choked a game against TAMU.
Ohio State has lost only once and to a good team. They were an obvious choice for the BCS.
Now let's look at the LSU Tigers' season:
LSU was red-hot in the month of September, winning their first three games by a combined 137-7 including a 48-7 victory over eventual BCS #3 Virginia Tech. The Tigers' first real test came in the form of Tim Tebow's Florida Gators, who took a 17-7 halftime lead in Tiger Stadium but were thwarted by LSU's perfect 5-5 4th down preformance in a comeback win, with LSU scoring all 14 4th quarter points. The following week, LSU suffered injuries to WR Early Doucet and lost one of their cornerbacks late in the game. There were some questionable calls that went in Kentucky's favor both leading to and in the overtime periods, and the Wildcats beat LSU in 3 overtimes. Next week against Auburn, LSU was again on the ropes trailing Auburn 17-7 at halftime. Auburn took a 24-23 lead late in the game, and with just seconds remaining Les Miles called a fade to the end zone rather than trying a 39 yard field goal. The gamble paid off once again. Not out of the woods yet, LSU travelled to Alabama to take on their former coach Nick Saban. Again the Tigers trailed at halftime and at the end of the third, and again they had a big 4th quarter to win 41-34 by scoring the final 14 points. After climbing back up to #1 with a 10-1 record, LSU's final regular season game was against Arkansas. Darren McFadden showed why he is a Heisman contender, rushing for 200 yards and 3 TDs and throwing for another. Despite a strong performance by Flynn and the offense, the game was lost on a two-point conversion! However the Tigers would get a chance to redeem themselves, taking on Tennessee in the SEC Championship. As LSU lost Matt Flynn to injury, the defense rose to the occasion to limit Tennessee's offense, forcing two interceptions from Erik Ainge including a game-winning defensive score! Hester had a big game and LSU outgained Tennessee 212-94 on the ground. Though the road was rough, it was full of quality teams and this was LSU's justification for playing in the title game.
Also let's face it - Oklahoma had karma left over from the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Perhaps LSU's selection over a probably better Oklahoma team is the SEC's payback for Oklahoma's selection over a probably better Auburn team in 2004. In any case, OU's karma is cleansed by being left out. Imagine the reaction if they had been selected and then lost to Ohio State, their third title game loss in the last five seasons! (OU vs OSU would in fact feature teams combining to go 0-3 by an average of 39-16 in three of the last four title games, and their matchup would guarantee that one of these teams has lost in four of the last five)
So, while LSU wasn't my choice, they were a reasonable selection and most importantly they bring a resume of quality wins to the BCS Championship game which was in grave danger of being absent had West Virginia not somehow choked against Pitt. In fact, if we view the contenders as belonging in two groups:
0-1 Loss Teams with 0-1 Quality Wins
* Hawaii
* Kansas
* Ohio State
2 Loss Teams with 3+ Quality Wins
* LSU
* Oklahoma
* Virginia Tech
Then this title game manages to halfway appease each camp's view on which type of team is more impressive. In fact, it's pretty evident that Ohio State is the most deserving in that top group while in the second group LSU is at least more deserving that Virginia Tech (who they beat by 41), if not more deserving than Oklahoma as well.
Selection Grade: A-
There are teams who have done more than Ohio State and there are teams who don't have LSU's losses. That said, it was a bizarre season and there was no "right" choice for this game. If we think of it as another BCS bowl game rather than a conclusive #1 vs #2, it's a pretty awesome matchup.
Once Ohio State vs LSU was set, the other conference champions with tie-ins were placed:
* USC went to the Rose Bowl.
* Oklahoma went to the Fiesta Bowl.
* Virginia Tech went to the Orange Bowl.
* West Virginia automatically qualified for an unspecified BCS bowl by winning the Big East.
* Hawaii automatically qualified for an unspecified BCS bowl by winning the WAC and finishing in the top 12.
First the replacements for Ohio State and LSU are made.
Because Ohio State was the #1 team whose tie-in was with the Rose Bowl, the Rose Bowl selects the first at-large team. Anybody in the TOP 14 is available, meaning their choices were:
* Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, West Virginia, Hawaii, Arizona State, Florida, Illinois, and Boston College
* There may be a rule that teams who played during the regular season cannot play against each other a second time in the bowls, unless for the BCS Championship. In any case, and ASU-USC rematch obviously would be a poor choice.
* Let's also give the Rose Bowl the benefit of the doubt and assume that the Sugar Bowl lobbied really hard to be allowed to take Georgia, and that the folks who run the Rose Bowl are generous people.
USC vs West Virginia would be an amazing game that many thought would be for the national championship. USC vs Missouri would bring in a Heisman contender QB and a team who was one game away from finishing #1. USC vs Hawaii would feature the nation's only unbeaten team and #1 scoring offense in a battle for Western supremacy.
Illinois has two losses to unranked teams - Iowa and Michigan. Iowa won't even be playing in a bowl, and Michigan lost to a I-AA school. They're the product of Todd Boeckman repeatedly sabotaging OSU's offense in one game, which pretty much defined an otherwise decent but not January Bowl-worthy season. This was, by far, the most perplexing BCS decision.
Selection Grade: F
Surely this was a practical joke of some kind?
Next, the Sugar Bowl selects a replacement for LSU. Anybody in the TOP 14 not yet chosen is available, meaning their choices were:
* Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, West Virginia, Hawaii, Arizona State, Florida, and Boston College
The Sugar Bowl selected Georgia, an SEC team which is the bowl's traditional tie-in and the highest-ranked team still available.
Selection Grade: A+
The Sugar Bowl gets the hottest team in the nation and manages to keep their conference tradition.
Now the remaining at-large selections are made.
The Orange Bowl has first at-large pick. Anybody in the TOP 14 not yet chosen is available, except Florida since the SEC now has two BCS teams, meaning their choices were:
* Missouri, Kansas, West Virginia, Hawaii, Arizona State, and Boston College
West Virginia may have made the most sense given that they have something of a rivalry with Virginia Tech, they bring an explosive offense which will generate ratings, and despite their ranking they may be the best team remaining. I'm going to give the Orange Bowl a break here and *assume* that the Fiesta Bowl said "please don't make us have an all-Big 12 matchup" in which case the Orange Bowl was choosing between Missouri and Kansas.
Missouri beat Kansas. Missouri has Chase Daniel, who will probably get a Heisman invite. Missouri has Maclin, Rucker, Coffman, and Temple. Just Saturday, Missouri was playing for a spot in the BCS Championship game. Missouri was the highest-ranked team remaining.
The decision to take Kansas is baffling.
Grade: C-
The Orange Bowl gets a team who has faced just one ranked opponent all season and lost.
The Fiesta Bowl has the second at-large pick. As West Virginia and Hawaii both had automatic bids and there were only two total slots remaining, one of those teams had to be chosen.
West Virginia was a game away from playing for the BCS Championship, and might have won had Pat White not injured his thumb. (or had their kicker not missed PAT-length field goals) Whether WVU or Hawaii is actually the better team is overshadowed by the fact that WVU is a known commodity (won 2005 Sugar Bowl, faced much tougher schedule than Hawaii) so they are far less likely to flop. If Hawaii went up against Oklahoma, they could pull a Boise State or they could lose 56-3; it's impossible to say since their schedule is ranked #137 in Sagarin's - yeah, that low, really.
Grade: A
The Fiesta Bowl couldn't have hoped for a better team with the second-to-last pick.
The Sugar Bowl has the final at-large pick. Hawaii automatically qualified for the BCS and they were still not chosen. This pick was automatic.
No Grade Assigned.
The Matchups:
Rose Bowl
#7 USC vs #13 Illinois
After the 2003 season, the Rose Bowl gave USC a share of the national title. In 2004, the Rose Bowl was Vince Young's coming out party against Michigan, a performance which he surpassed to claim the 2005 title for Texas over USC. Last season, the Rose Bowl featured USC against a Michigan team who was 3 points away from playing in the title game. This is quite a falloff from such recent history.
Matchup Grade: D
Orange Bowl
#3 Virginia Tech vs #8 Kansas
Ignoring the fact that Missouri is a better team, the Fiesta didn't do that poorly with Kansas. The Jayhawks are a mostly untested team, but Va Tech's quarterback situation means this one probably won't get ugly. I'm interested to see how an offense that statistically ranks in the top 10, but may be completely the product of the teams they've faced, stacks up against a defense that has finished in the top 10 for several straight seasons. In the end, Va Tech is a team who was tightly in the title discussion and Kansas is a team who would have been if they weren't, well, Kansas.
Matchup Grade: B+
Fiesta Bowl
#4 Oklahoma vs #9 West Virginia
If Pat White's injury really did have such an impact on the WVU-Pitt game (I don't remember it and thought that he was pulled for ineffectiveness, and I think it's inexcusable to lose to Pitt either way...), then these are TWO teams who are a bad hit away from having one loss and playing in New Orleans on Jan 8. In any case, Oklahoma just might be the best team in the country and West Virginia almost surely has the fastest offense.
Matchup Grade: A+
Sugar Bowl
#5 Georgia vs #10 Hawaii
Hawaii has won all 12 games this season and Georgia has won their last six, making them the only teams in the BCS who didn't lose in November or December! Some might argue that this means they should be playing for the title, but in any case I'm excited to see the hottest two teams in the country face off. Georgia is a proven commodity having finished 10-2 in the SEC with wins over Florida and Tennessee. Will Hawaii be this year's Boise State/Utah, or will the midmajor finally be humbled by the big bad "power conference" team in a BCS bowl?It's also noteworthy that Hawaii is usually the beneficiary of playing bowl games in their home stadium. It's ironic that in their biggest bowl game ever, the other team will basically have home crowd advantage.
Matchup Grade: A-
BCS Championship Game
Hosted by the Sugar Bowl
#1 Ohio State vs #2 LSU
Ignoring all arguments about who "should" have been here, we've got two pretty good teams who are here. Ohio State played in the first BCS Sugar Bowl and beat Texas A&M 24-14. They won the national title in 2002 and played for the national title last season. LSU played in the Sugar Bowl last season and beat Notre Dame 41-14. They won a share of the national title in 2003 with a victory in the Sugar Bowl. But that's all in the past...
This season, Ohio State did play one of the weaker schedules, but lost just one time and picked up road wins over Washington, Purdue, Penn State, and Michigan. For whatever it's worth, the latter three teams were ranked at the time (or overrated, as it's sometimes called). Wisconsin, however, is currently ranked and that was another victory for the Buckeyes. In a season where countless upsets occurred, Ohio State managed to do what they were supposed to in 11 of their 12 games which is more than 116 other teams can say.
LSU has two blemishes on their record, but they faced the toughest schedule of any contender. They have victories over teams ranked #3, #12, #16, and #23 in the BCS standings. One of the two teams who beat them, Arkansas, is ranked in the top 25 of every voter poll, though the computers drop them down to #27 in the BCS. They won the toughest conference and they have the most impressive nonconference victory of any team in the country. Indeed that victory over the ACC Champion may have been what put them ahead of both VT and Oklahoma, whose nonconference victory over bowl-ineligible Miami is nowhere near as impressive.
This game will feature one of the nation's best offenses against what is statistically the nation's best defense. Their counterparts are underrated as LSU's defense has given up many overtime points where the opponent basically starts on the goalline, and OSU's offense has often been content to run out the clock in their comfortable victories. Each team has a fatal flaw - LSU's red zone defense and OSU's quarterback play. It's somewhat interesting that Ohio State has never beaten an SEC team in a bowl game and that Ohio State's 2002 BCS Championship victory came in overtime while both of LSU's losses this season came in overtime.
LSU will be playing in basically a home environment and Ohio State won't have played a game in 50 days. However, LSU will be without their defensive coordinator Pelini who was hired by Nebraska, and they are currently dealing with some key injuries.
Matchup Grade: A+ for general BCS Bowl, B for Championship Game
Karma Cleansing:
As I've noted before, the Big 12 has benefitted from the BCS formulas in the past to get invites to bowls over teams who the voters had ranked higher. Who was right - the voters or the computers - really isn't the point; that is what happened. This season:
* Oklahoma, arguably the best team in the nation when healthy, was passed over despite dealing two losses to the team who was ranked #1 in the final week.
* Missouri, despite being ranked #6 overall, was left out in favor of two at-large teams ranked below them - Kansas and Illinois both of whom they defeated!
* Kansas, despite being just one of two BCS conference teams with only one loss, was left out of the title game in favor of a team with a worse record. This is the first time that's ever happened to anyone but a midmajor.
If God actually cares about college football, He must really have it in for:
* Missouri.
The Tigers are most well-known for being the victim of Colorado's infamous "Fifth Down" in 1990.
This season, they beat Kansas and lose to Big 12 Champion Oklahoma twice... finishing 1st in the Big 12 North and 6th in the BCS Standings while Kansas finished 2nd in the Big 12 North and 8th in the BCS Standings. But because they were forced to play against OU (who's arguably the best team in the country) two times, they're not even in the BCS at all. I really cannot fathom why KU was chosen over Mizzou. Adding insult to injury, #13 Illinois who had a worse record than Missouri and lost to Missouri on a neutral field was the first at-large team chosen.
* Oregon.
The Ducks have twice been shafted by the BCS - in 2001, being one of three one-loss teams left out in favor of Nebraska, and in 2005, being left out entirely in favor of a lower-ranked Notre Dame team because of ND's special clauses in the BCS contracts.
This season, Oregon was #2 in the BCS with a blowout win at Michigan, a close loss to Cal, and coming straight off consecutive victories over USC and Arizona State. They lose Dennis Dixon and drop three straight games without him - plummeting out of the rankings entirely and landing a date in the Sun Bowl against South Florida.
What Might Have Been
BCS apologists say that in college football, every week is a playoff. If that's the case, then the 2007 season was a double-elimination tournament except that LSU's second loss didn't eliminate them, Kansas lost to Missouri and lost again for having "Kansas" on their jersey rather than "LSU" or "Ohio State," and Hawaii wasn't even allowed to play. Enough with the crap. Votes and panels work great for dancing, gymnastics, and figure skating where the competitors can't really go at it head to head. (although I'm sure Kerrigan vs Harding in an on-ice deathmatch would have tripled olympic viewership) This is football, let's settle things on the field.
The 2007 season only adds more fuel to the fire for a full-blown playoff in college football's top division. Forget plus-one, sure it's a lot better than what we've got now but even that isn't really enough. This season there's at least six or seven teams who have roughly equal arguments for being title contenders -- besides that, you can't justify putting Hawaii in the top four with their schedule but they certainly still deserve a chance to crown their perfect season with a championship. And as much as this season is the exception historically, if the overall parity in college football continues to increase, we'll have more and more seasons where the conference schedules plus maybe one decent nonconference game for each team just don't give a clear picture of how the top teams compare to each other.
As it makes little sense for the BCS to run anything more than the plus-one system, the playoffs are eventually going to be run by the NCAA. (perhaps with the BCS sticking around to run the Final Four through a series of "neutral-setting" bowls) If the NCAA runs a playoff, it will feature 16 teams. That's just a fact - it's how they run all the other divisions, who somehow manage to graduate their athletes. The only real question is if it would be just the top 16 teams or if there would be conference tie-ins. Having tie-ins makes things fair for everybody, so I'm going to go with that.
THE TEAMS
1. Ohio State - Big Ten Champion
2. LSU - SEC Champion
3. Virginia Tech - ACC Champion
4. Oklahoma - Big 12 Champion
5. Georgia - 10-2 at large
6. Missouri - 11-2 Big 12 runner-up
7. USC - Pac 10 Champion
8. Kansas - 11-1 at-large
9. West Virginia - Big East Champion
10. Hawaii - WAC Champion
11. Arizona State - 10-2 at-large
12. Florida - 9-3 at-large
13. BYU - Mountain West Champion
14. UCF - C-USA Champion
15. Troy - Sun Belt Champion
16. Central Michigan - MAC Champion
ROUND ONE:
16. Central Michigan AT 1. Ohio State
Ohio State has lots of experience playing against the MAC this season, and they handle CMU easily.
9. West Virginia AT 8. Kansas
Reesing's inexperience proves costly and KU has not seen the kind of speed WVU brings on offense.
13. BYU AT 4. Oklahoma
OU's starters get plenty of rest in this one.
12. Florida AT 5. Georgia
A rematch game! Just look at the difference between finishing in the top 4 vs finishing 5th... OU practically has a first round bye, whereas Georgia will be in for a real fight. Tebow is more healthy, but Florida still has not grown a defense. Dawgs in a classic SEC battle.
14. UCF AT 3. Virginia Tech
A coastal matchup featuring one of the nation's leading rushers vs a stout defense. VT wins but it's closer than many predicted...
11. Arizona State AT 6. Missouri
Missouri is a little better at QB, RB, and WR. Add that to their home field advantage and they win by 10.
10. Hawaii AT 7. USC
Another coastal game, this time out West. Hawaii puts up more of a fight than expected, but USC's experience of playing in big games time and again puts them over the top.
15. Troy AT 2. LSU
Troy just isn't prepared for a trip to Tiger Stadium and they get rocked.
ROUND TWO:
9. West Virginia AT 1. Ohio State
On a neutral field, WVU's speed on offense is too much for the Buckeyes. But in the Horseshoe at night, Ohio State is able to create a physical, slow, ugly game that's more to their liking.
5. Georgia AT 4. Oklahoma
Both of these teams have a lot of supporters right now who feel they should be playing against Ohio State. And in a playoff, the winning team would get that chance! Bradford > Stafford, OU wins.
6. Missouri AT 3. Virginia Tech
Missouri's offense is too much for VT to hold down all game, particularly with their own offense going 3-and-out to keep the defense on the field. Chase Daniel doesn't make the costly mistakes that Sean Glennon does, and the Tigers go into Blacksburg and win!
7. USC AT 2. LSU
Are you kidding me? This matchup has been talked about for the last four years and it's finally played, as the Trojans travel into Tiger Stadium - possibly the most hostile road environment in college football. It's the most talent on the field of any game so far, and when LSU scores the winning TD rather than kicking a tying FG, the crowd roar registers as an earthquake.
FINAL FOUR
1. Ohio State VS 4. Oklahoma
Site: Rose Bowl
The Rose Bowl is the traditional destination for Big Ten schools, but it's by random chance that it wound up hosting Ohio State. Oklahoma doesn't mind as they have fond memories of this bowl from the 2002 season. Both teams feature great defenses which keep the score down, but Boeckman turns the ball over three times including a pick-six and the Buckeye offense simply is not suited to play catch-up against this caliber of defense.
2. LSU VS 6. Missouri
Site: Sugar Bowl
This game's site somehow wound up being the Sugar Bowl, which isn't really neutral at all. Missouri's defense can't contend with all the speed LSU has on offense, while LSU's pressure defense and great cornerbacks force Chase Daniel into a game filled with big plays for both teams. It's enough for the Tigers - LSU, that is - to win comfortably in a high-scoring game.
The Orange Bowl and Fiesta Bowl aren't used this year, and so they are free to invite whomever they choose. (the bowls haven't been eliminated!) Any non-final four participants are free to invite, so the Orange Bowl is Va Tech vs West Va and the Fiesta Bowl grabs USC and Georgia.
CHAMPIONSHIP
4. Oklahoma VS 2. LSU
Site: Cotton Bowl
With a new mega-stadium, the Cotton Bowl will host the premiere bowl venue. The Sooners boast a more efficient, less mistake-prone QB despite him being a freshman. Their RB corps is the deeper of two amazing groups and their red zone defense is vastly superior to LSU's, despite the Tigers having a better defense between the 20s. OU gets revenge for that Sugar Bowl loss four years ago and becomes the first true champion of NCAA football.
You can't tell me this wouldn't be better than watching USC destroy Illinois, Georgia vs yet-untested Hawaii, a questionable selection of Kansas rather than Missouri to face Va Tech, and omg the one good matchup West Va vs Oklahoma... while LSU takes on Ohio State for the title.
An Immediate Shallow Analysis of Every Bowl Game
Rules of the Game:
* Look at each bowl pairing and make a quick superficial conclusion.
* Posted immediately after bowl pairings announced. (ok, I cheated a little and played Starcraft, went grocery shopping, and then wrote this)
* No looking up meaningful info on any teams. Records and schedules allowed a brief overview.
* Petty dismissal of teams I know little about is in fact encouraged.
I'll also be including the full name of each bowl, including sponsorship, because that reminds us that the bowl system puts money over what's best for college football, namely a playoff in a crazy season that would have rocked your nuts off.
Let's go:
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Utah vs. Navy
Preview: We have Poinsettias in the office and they're really pretty. I never realized that.
Pick: Navy - they beat Notre Dame, so obviously they're an amazing team,
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic
Preview: Memphis should thank their lucky stars that it's not Florida Pacific. According to Al Gore, that school should be opening in the next five years.
Pick: Florida Atlantic
Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati
Preview: Just the name of a website, not like the Papajohns.com Deep Dish Bowl? At 9-3 and with a BCS #22 ranking, how the hell did Cincy end up here?
Pick: Cincinnati
New Mexico
Nevada vs. New Mexico
Preview: The more I know, the less I care. The sad thing is, I don't know anything about either team, and I still don't care.
Pick: Heads - Nevada!
Pioneer Las Vegas
UCLA vs. BYU
Preview: BYU makes their second straight appearance in a bowl nobody cares about against a 6-6 Pac 10 team. UCLA prevented Notre Dame from starting 0-10 and are down to their 4th string QB... with assurances that the "WR" printed as his position in the early season guides is in fact a typo. Fear not, Bruins, that tactic works really well in a lot of video games.
Pick: BYU.
Sheraton Hawaii
Boise State vs. East Carolina
Preview: Is East Carolina located in North Carolina or South Carolina? And how much does it rock to go to college in Idaho and play your final TWO games in Hawaii?
Pick: Boise State with at least 15 different versions of the hook and ladder, including the first ever Statue of Ladder combination trick play.
Motor City
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Preview: When you go to CMU, nothing says vacation like a trip to Detroit.
Pick: Purdue
Pacific Life Holiday
Arizona State vs. Texas
Preview: The first interesting matchup. A Texas win gives them seven straight seasons of at least 10 wins. ASU's gotta be pissed about Illinois making it to the BCS over them... add Erickson's name to the growing list of people who hate Jim Delany.
Pick: Texas
Champs Sports
Boston College vs. Michigan State
Preview: BC - from national title contender with an impressive victory over Notre Dame and a Heisman hopeful QB to early December bowl against a 7-5 Big Ten school, all in about a month.
Pick: Boston College
Texas
TCU vs. Houston
Preview: Both teams are in fact from Texas, making it more geographically accurate than the New Mexico Bowl.
Pick: Houston. F*CK TCU!
Emerald
Maryland vs. Oregon State
Preview: Just because 8 ACC teams are bowl eligible doesn't mean they should all go.
Pick: Oregon State
Meineke Car Care
UConn vs. Wake Forest
Preview: I can't. I honestly can't. It's too lame to even make fun of. There is nothing good about this bowl, and I hope they find a way to cancel it.
Pick: UConn
AutoZone Liberty
UCF vs. Mississippi State
Preview: If the folks at AutoZone were forced to pick between Liberty and Death, and that choice was translated into watching this bowl, then clearly they didn't go with Liberty.
Pick: UCF
Valero Alamo
Penn State vs. Texas A&M
Preview: After one and a half centuries, Joe Paterno revisits the site of that historic battle. They were running the same schemes back then, too.
Pick: I hate it... but A&M.
PetroSun Independence
Alabama vs. Colorado
Preview: After replacing Mike Shula, Nick Saban led Alabama to the exact same record for only $3 million/year more. A bowl loss to a 6-6 Big 12 school would only further prove the sagacity of the hiring decision.
Pick: Alabama
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
California vs. Air Force
Preview: Cal-Berkley is in the armed forces bowl? As what, protesters?
Pick: Air Force, by virtue of beating Notre Dame who beat Stanford who beat Cal.
Roady's Humanitarian
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State
Preview: I can count on both hands the number of teams who beat Notre Dame this season, and one of them's playing in this bowl.
Pick: Georgia Tech
Brut Sun
Preview: South Florida vs. Oregon
Pick: At one point each of these teams was ranked #2 and had a huge victory over their eventual confernece champion. Oregon has an excuse, but that's not going to help them here.
Pick South Florida. Oregon's actually going to go 0-for-since losing Dixon.
Gaylord Hotels Music City
Kentucky vs. Florida State
Preview: Kentucky beat LSU then tanked. Florida State kicked Jeffy Jeff but still can't score.
Pick: FSU, once again generating preseason hype which they can fall short of.
Insight
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State
Preview: Just because 10 Big Ten teams are bowl eligible doesn't mean more than 5 should actually get bowl invites. Not like Oklahoma State can boast of much themselves.
Pick: OK State
Chick-fil-A
Clemson vs. Auburn
Preview: They dropped the Peach all together?? Really? And is Clemson-Aubie a possible rivalry game?
Pick: Auburn. Over/under touches for Spiller is 9.
Outback
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Preview: Once again, the oUTback Bowl. Spurrier's laughing his ass off. From his couch, where he'll be spending bowl season.
Pick: Tennessee
AT&T Cotton
Missouri vs. Arkansas
Preview: This looks like a great matchup. Nation's best RB vs one of the top spread offenses, not a whole lot of defense to slow either side down. But Missouri deserved a BCS bid...
Pick: Missouri
Gator
Texas Tech vs. Virginia
Preview: Watching the nation's best freshman WR playing in a gimmick offense against an overrated team should be a lot of fun.
Pick: Texas Tech
Capital One
Michigan vs. Florida
Preview: Definitely gets the WTF Bowl of the year award. Florida is a BCS-quality team who lost two games to teams who wound up as national title contenders. They also run a similar offense to Appalachian State and Oregon... only with Tim Tebow. If you've been itching to put your entire life savings on a college football game, this is as good a pick as any.
Pick: Flori-duh
Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC
Preview: For those of you who don't obsess about this stuff, the selection process worked so that Ohio State, LSU, USC, Va Tech, and Oklahoma all had tie-ins to specific bowls based on their final ranking or conference title. The Rose Bowl then got to choose the FIRST non-tie-in team and picked Illinois over Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, West Virginia, Hawaii, Arizona State, Florida, and Boston College. WHY?? ASU and BC are the only ones I wouldn't have picked over Illinois.
Pick: USC
Allstate Sugar
Hawaii vs. Georgia
Preview: The picking order for BCS Bowls was Orange then Fiesta then Sugar. Looks like nobody wanted Hawaii but they were an automatic qualifier. (yes, it's all about the money) That said, this is a potentially underrated matchup.
Pick: Georgia
Tostitos Fiesta
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Preview: I have no idea why the Orange Bowl went with Kansas rather than West Virginia, but the Fiesta Bowl thanks them for it. This is by far the best matchup of the four non-championship BCS Bowls.
Pick: Oklahoma
FedEx Orange
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Preview: Going with a Big 12 at-large team had the potential to create two great BCS Bowls (the other being the Fiesta) following the Rose Bowl's questionable selection of Illinois. But why not Missouri who beat Kansas and won the North division?
Pick: Va Tech
International
Rutgers vs. Ball State
Preview: When somebody asks me what I'll be doing around 10am on the first Saturday in January, I'll probably respond "sleeping." I'll then have to clarify that "By that, I don't mean watching Rutgers and Ball State play in Canada."
Pick: There are no winners, only losers. Rutgers will be the loser with the higher score, though.
GMAC
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa
Preview: Why not Miami who finished #2 in the conference? Though I wouldn't give a crap if I hadn't gone there.
Pick: Bowling Green... sucks. Tulsa.
Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU vs. Ohio State
Preview: Did they get the right matchup? I'd say no, but I'm not disappointed with this one. Realistically, this season has a ton of imperfect teams and the Championship Game might not even feature either of the best two. What it does feature is two proud programs who have both already won a BCS title (so we have a guaranteed first two-BCS Championship winner), a chance for the Big Ten to redeem themselves against the SEC, and a chance for Les Miles to walk the walk after talking the talk in August. On a related note, props to Miles for making the honorable decision and staying at LSU. Sucks for the Tigers to be without def coordinator Pelini though.
Pick: As a Michigan man, Les Miles knew that only his current team and not his alma mater have the chance to stop a brink-of-emerging Buckeyes dynasty that would quickly become the most annoying in college football history, as eventually the Buckeyes would leave the Big Ten to become independent and play 12 Ohio teams while their fans note that, for some reason, other schools had more trouble winning all their games. LSU.
Sunday, December 2
If You Throw Shit at the Wall and Nobody Sees it, Does it Still Stick?
Last week I said that Oklahoma was the best team in the country, while Missouri was the best one-loss team but might not be in the top 3 overall. I said that Ohio State vs West Virginia must be avoided as the two teams have combined to beat absolutely nobody... therefore, we can't really say that they're legitimately top 2 material.
If all of those turned out true, then you might suspect that I have some answers for the BCS Title Game matchup. Unfortunately I don't, other than the always-correct response of "Ask Phil Steele."
In the past I've always had strong opinions about that coveted #2 spot. I really thought Ohio State should have gotten it in 1998... how you watch them and Florida State and think the Noles were better is beyond belief. I was with the national consensus in thinking that Miami, who beat FSU in 2000, should have gone on to face the Sooners. However the following season, I thought Nebraska was a better choice than Oregon as the defensive disparities (secondaries in particular) were greatly in the Huskers' favor. I felt that LSU and Oklahoma had done much more than USC in 2003, and that Auburn should be rewarded for taking the toughest road in 2004. I thought that an Ohio State-Michigan rematch, in light of Florida's resume of impressive wins, would be an insult to college football and rely on the questionable reasoning that beating Texas and Notre Dame makes the Big Ten head and shoulders above all others.
Which makes it funny that in this season, perhaps destined to be the most controversial yet, I don't have much of an opinion. OK, if we're assuming that Ohio State gets the #1 nod, I'd choose #2 in this order:
1. Oklahoma
2. LSU
3. USC
4. Georgia
5. Missouri
6. Kansas
7. Virginia Tech
8. Hawaii
But really, if USC goes I don't have a complaint. If Missouri goes I'd write it off as the same loss twice, rather than losing to two different teams. If it's Kansas... they also have one loss and did they really accomplish that much less than Ohio State? Georgia may not have won their division, but they killed Florida who LSU had trouble with and they won their final six games. Va Tech proved that their loss to BC was the product of a 4-minute brain fart. (actually, I'll have complaints if VT goes... due to the head to head result with LSU... but right now that doesn't look likely anyways)
I don't have the final BCS rankings, and when those do come out this will of course be irrelevant. So let's just look at each team's pros and cons for BCS NC game selection:
Georgia
* went into this weekend ranked #4
* won final 6 games
* quality wins over Florida and Auburn
* two losses, of which the South Carolina loss looks pretty bad
* did not even win own division of the SEC
Hawaii
* only unbeaten team in the nation
* do have a good win over Boise State
* even cupcake schedules aren't this easy
Kansas
* best record in the Big 12
* only loss in a close game to Missouri
* cupcake regular season schedule avoided the three best teams in the South division
LSU
* SEC Champion, probably the most number of quality wins on this list
* if there's justice, you can ink them in over VT after that blowout
* two losses to unranked teams in which the defense collapsed
Missouri
* quality wins over Kansas, Illinois
* though they have two losses, only one team has beaten them
* that said, how do you justify them going over Oklahoma?
Ohio State
* only one loss, and to a ranked opponent Illinois
* no real quality wins, though beating Wisconsin is semi-impressive
* If you take the letter that appears on the helmets of their first 4 opponents, it spells out Y-A-W-N. No joke.
* they were a better team last year, and we remember what happened then
Oklahoma
* beat Missouri twice, Texas once
* only loss since September came w/o starting QB
* lost to Colorado?
* 2003 and 2004 count against the program
USC
* loss to Stanford came with a dozen injuries, loss to Oregon was when they were an elite team with Dixon
* win over Arizona State, who should be in the BCS if it were done by rankings alone
* no other quality wins as Cal and Nebraska tanked
* it's freaking Stanford, your backups should still win
Virginia Tech
* avenged loss to BC
* pounded by LSU 48-7
West Virginia
* still haven't even played against a BCS top 20 team
* loss to Pitt are you kidding?
* Big East weakest conference (Big Ten fans rejoice!)
Why Oklahoma?
If the BCS and the voters really believed that Missouri was the #1 team in the country - and not just by default since Ohio State and West Virginia also had just one loss - then Oklahoma has beaten a truly elite opponent two times... the second time in a blowout. Though Texas stumbled in their final game, it's still a really impressive result for the Sooners' third-best victory. The loss to Colorado is inexcusable but it was over two months ago and you expect early struggles from a freshman QB. That said, Bradford leads all starters in QB rating and OU's only loss since September came with him on the sidelines against a team you almost have to beat in a shootout.
The Good News
Every team I listed in my 8 choices has a better resume than West Virginia. It's very likely that we'll end up with a championship game "combined resume" much stronger than we would have gotten had merely Missouri lost without WVU losing as well.
At This Point, Is There Really Any Question...
That we need a playoff? We've got two-loss teams and teams who lost their final game in the NC picture. Ohio State looks to be at the front of the pack, and even they can boast of losing their second-last game, losing to the only decent opponent they faced, and essentially backing into the title game. And that's the best resume of the bunch. Even just the plus-one would force some team to win two in a row against top 5 competition, which I guess goes a long way in negating the blemishes on each team's resume at this point. The 8-team option seems to be gaining ground, that would feature Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, USC, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech and two more good teams. Sixteen gets you every conference champion (nobody can claim they didn't have a chance) plus Georgia, Missouri, Kansas, Florida, and a few others.
And Dan Wetzel brought up the valid point that the Rose Bowl location is a huge advantage to the Pac 10 team over the Big Ten team. (both in terms of proximity to fan base and in terms of weather conditions, as the plodding midwestern teams were built to win November games in a snowstorm not to air it out on a 60 degree day in December) Of course that was just the example he chose - the Orange Bowl is a similar boon to the Florida schools and playing the Sugar Bowl in SEC heartland is a daunting task for the other conferences. Giving home field advantage throughout the entire tourney - or just up until the final game - would make things more fair for northern teams and increase the meaningfulness of the regular season. Particularly for those who fear that going to a full playoff like the rest of the NCAA does would hurt the meaningfulness of regular season play, the opportunity to play round 1 at home against a weaker opponent is something teams would be fighting for. Besides that, rivalry games are meaningful *every* season, whether there's national championship hopes, a conference title, bowl eligibility, or just plain ol pride on the line. Seriously, was Auburn-Alabama diminished just because LSU had already wrapped up the SEC West? Nope.
Buckeyes go back to the NC Game!
So this year has been the craziest College Football season ever. However, I'm here to dispute a few points in why I think the NC game will still be a good one, and who I think will play and why.
Ohio State will of course come up to the #1 ranking in the country. However, their schedule was weak in direct comparison to some of the other top teams in the country. Their main victories came against the majority of Big 10 teams that rank #20-30 in the polls due to the belief that the Big 10 is in a down year. They played a weak non-conference schedule, with the biggest win against Washington meaning little now that the latter lost to Hawaii last night.
How can a team that has played against Texas in the past two years have such a rotten schedule, and then play for the National Championship? Here's how - this is the down year prior to having home and homes against USC the next two years, and Miami (FL) coming in the two years after that. Of course, USC has won 6 consecutive Pac 10 titles, whereas Miami has fallen from the ranks the past two years. But how do you make schedules that constantly have strong non-conference opponents? You can't... because the schedules are made years in advance and it could come in a year that that specific opponent could be in a down year.
So let's talk about the conference schedule - this year Wisconsin and Michigan were supposed to be better than the Buckeyes, but both teams ended up being a mediocre national team, with the latter team losing to Appalachian state. In the end, even Penn State, who came on strong in the beginning of the year with their only big loss to Michigan, couldn't hold on. This creates the thought that the conference schedule is weak, which I won't defend. However, this hasn't always been the case, and when your conference teams beat up on each other, their records get worse and hence look weaker.
So then why isn't the Big 10 compared to the SEC as far as their power? It's because of weak non-conference play in the bowl games. Even after Wisconsin beat Arkansas, the Big 10 came away from the bowl games 1-5 last year. Should the Big 10 have a better bowl season this year, especially if partnered against the SEC, then they have a chance to reclaim some of the lost luster.
The second team that I see playing in the NC game is LSU. The voters will favor them after last night's performances, even by Oklahoma. They won the SEC which Georgia can't say, they beat Va Tech head to head, and they have played a much harder schedule than Oklahoma. LSU has played 6 teams ranked in the top 25 at the time, and lost to only one (Kentucky in triple overtime). Their only other loss came in triple overtime against Arkansas. Those two teams, Kentucky and Arkansas, are much better losses than Colorado and Texas A&M. In fact, the mere fact that Oklahoma lost to Colorado even WITH Sam Bradford should eliminate them from the NC Game.
LSU's performance in the middle of the season, however, was not of a championship caliber team. In the end though they did what winning teams do - they won, no matter how close it got. That is something that should be given credit, especially with the perceived difficulty that is the SEC schedule.
Let's look at LSU's non-conference schedule - it's not much better than Ohio State's non conference schedule. It is merely the fact that their conference is perceived as being better than the others that makes them a top ranked team.
This season has shown that nobody is really a top ranked team, and that everyone has a chance of falling. Regardless of how hard or easy the schedule, there are no guaranteed wins, and that these perceptions of greatness should be resolved into a playoff schedule where the winners are determined out on the field.
So when they announce the BCS matchups, I'm pretty sure we'll see Ohio State and LSU listed for the title game... and it will be one heck of a game.
Saturday, December 1
Tennessee-LSU: At Least It Isn't Georgia
So I’m going to make another attempt at writing a running diary for a
Of course, before the game begins I’m forced to watch some more ACC football. What better way is there to ring in the SEC Championship than watching teams punt a lot? On the plus side, since Paul McGuire is working this game, I won’t have to listen to him tonight. Still, these guys get bonus points for claiming USC is the best team in the country now that they’re healthy. God, I hope UCLA rolls them. While I’m wishing for things that won’t happen, I’d like a new house. Still, how bad is it to forget that the national championship is decided by the best team, not the best starters? I never figured that’d be beyond the grasp of people that get pad to announce this for a living, but oh well. At least they’ve done a great job of keeping the players straight, something that didn’t happen with the
3:50 pm: I know the game hasn’t started yet, but I’ve already decided that one of the best things about this game being on CBS is not seeing Dr. Pepper ads at every commercial break. I can only see so many shots of people drinking jelly beans and a fat guy dancing before it gets ridiculously old.
4:14 pm: The Vols are doing a great job moving the ball early; thanks to a gutsy move by LSU that didn’t pan out, the Vols got great field position. The biggest surprise about this game? They’re moving the ball on the ground early. There have been issues involving the play clock, so let’s hope they get that resolved. This isn’t a big game or anything like that. Big play so far: Gerald Jones took a direct snap on 3rd and 2, faked a handoff to Arian Foster, then cut to the opposite side to the field for a 19-yard gain. LSU’s entire defense bit to Foster’s side; nobody was even close to Jones for the first 10 yards.
4:16 pm: Chris Brown snags a deflected pass and runs it in for a TD early! It’s 7-0 Vols less than 3 minutes in. Who saw that coming? (
4:20 pm: I just want to mention this now, but
4:23 pm: Bad tackling (by UT) and good blocking (by LSU) have let LSU move the ball almost at will early. However, UT is showing good lateral pursuit early, which will limit Perriloux’s legs. Oh yeah – Matt Flynn started the game on the sidelines for reasons I don’t get. Maybe Les Miles is trying to invoke the ghost of Chris Simms.
4:27 pm: Both teams have burned bad timeouts early thanks to not being prepared; the difference between the two teams here is that LSU left Perriloux in while
4:28 pm: Remember that thing I said about not seeing Dr. Pepper ads? Yeah… I’m a dumbass. Know what team isn’t having any Dr. Pepper ads in their game?
4:30 pm:
4:33 pm: I wouldn’t be an 18-25 year old male if I didn’t comment that the LSU kicker’s number is 69. Hee. Lennon Creer slips on the return giving
4:34 pm: Great point by Gary Danielson that the Vols are running early toward Glenn Dorsey, not away from him. That’s kind of ballsy.
4:36 pm:
4:40 pm: LSU calls yet another timeout – there’s only 5:17 left in the 1st quarter. Not that big of a deal in the first half, but it could come back to bite them late. Meanwhile, I’m not sold that
4:43 pm: Drinking game: drink every time that “Charles Scott” and “change of pace” are used in the same sentence. Chug if you’re an
4:45 pm: Colt David nails yet another FG to pull LSU within 1. Before that, there’s a substitution infraction on the Tigers, but it doesn’t matter. It’s 7-6
4:49 pm: Lennon Creer doesn’t slip at all on this return! He cuts it across the field all the way to the LSU 42.
4:51 pm: Another drive goes nowhere for the Vols; LSU is doing a much better job at initial contact than
4:54 pm: Perriloux is limping! Flynn is probably good enough to go in, but the Vols are doing a good job of hitting Perriloux when they have the opportunity to. It’s about the only guy they’re actually hitting, but whatever. It’s also the end of the first quarter, so the Tigers catch a hidden break.
4:59 pm: LSU has opened up with more passing early in the 2nd quarter. This might be either in response to Perriloux’s limping or because they’ve established the run. Also, the “backup” would be Andrew Hatch according to CBS, but: bullshit. No way does Flynn not play in this game if Perriloux has to come out.
5:03 pm: LSU burns their final timeout of the 1st half with 11:24 left in the 2nd quarter. This update is courtesy of the Joe Gibbs School of Timeout Management.
5:05 pm: Hester stuffed! That’s courtesy of Eric Berry, who I’m sure I’ll mention again before today is over. He’s really come into his own these last few weeks of the season, and I’m already hoping he doesn’t go pro early.
5:07 pm:
5:10 pm: So much for that, but LSU has the ball deep in their own territory again.
5:12 pm: CBS’s “Best Move” of the year was
5:15 pm: I lose track of downs and inadvertently thought
5:16 pm: Perriloux gets a vicious block on a Keiland Williams run, but Williams still got blasted for a huge, 14-yard loss. Win the battle, lose the war. Perriloux’s sacked on the next play and LSU has 3rd and 1/3rd of the field. Next up: a delay of game.
5:19 pm: Perriloux gets nailed for yet another loss of yardage! LSU is punting from the back of their own end zone… and does an excellent job of giving it back to
5:20 pm:
5:22 pm: Ainge throws an incomplete pass to Chevis Jackson – although it was intended for Kenny O’Neal. I remember thinking he was going to be a serious part of the offense before the season started. I’ll put it this way:
5:24 pm: Another three-and-out. Oh boy. Amazingly, LSU ends up netting 6 yards from that round of punts; it’s their ball on their own 10 again.
5:27 pm:
5:29 pm:
5:30 pm: J.T. Mapu is injured on a play that eventually got nullified thanks to an illegal formation penalty. Fun moment as two trainers – who together don’t weigh as much as Mapu – try and help him up. That isn’t going to work. Just for fun, another false start penalty against LSU, so they’re looking at 1st and 20.
5:33 pm: I’ve knocked my cell phone and my TV remote off the recliner more times than I can even count. I should really put the legs up or something. Meanwhile, Perriloux slings one hell of a pass to Byrd for a first down. The play’s under review, though I don’t think there’s any way this gets overturned.
5:36 pm: Doucet picks up a huge gain on a WR screen and it’s first and 10 (basically, first and goal) for the Tigers. There’s only 38 seconds to go, but at this point I’m counting this first half as plus for
5:37 pm: Stupid clock; LSU gets some more time on the clock so they’ll have an opportunity for a shot to the end zone, but they opt for a spike and yet another Colt David FG. We’ll head into the half with LSU up 9-7.
5:40 pm: The jinx works this time! It’s actually 7-6
Halftime: I almost never say this, but kudos to the announcers; Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson have done an excellent job on this game. That being said, I think I’m biased after the horrible UT/Kentucky game; two goats would’ve sounded better than that crew.
I can’t say I’d be happy with the Vols’ performance if they were the favorites, but as underdogs I guess I’ll take it. After the opening drive the Vols have really struggled to move the ball, which means it’ll be up to OC David Cutcliffe to make adjustments. Hopefully DC John Chavis will recognize that Perriloux is starting to pass the ball more and make a couple of adjustments to account for that. The Vols did a better job accounting for Hester as the half wore on.
For LSU, they need to recognize that they’ll be able to move the ball on the ground if they alternate between up the middle and around the edges. The screens are working, but the pitches and direct tosses aren’t, so they’ll abandon that. If they’re going to pass, keep to the slants.
What they’re doing on defense is working as of now, but they do need to remember that
6:03 pm: I’m coming back a bit early, but as a superstition I’ve taken off the UT hoodie. Now I’m only wearing the UT t-shirt. I feel like you need to know these things – and yes, both the hoodie and the shirt are tasteful.
6:10 pm: Wow, Brandon Lafell beat his cover man something fierce. He had enough time to turn around and run backwards for about 7-8 yards. That’s a 48 yard completion and it’s looking like LSU will actually take the lead this time around. Perriloux has quietly thrown for over 200 yards today.
6:11 pm: Rico McCoy blows up a reverse at the best possible point for the Vols; that’s a 10 yard loss. Of course, it doesn’t matter; Demetrius Byrd snags an easy, easy catch for a LSU TD, and it’s 13-6 LSU. Eric Berry misjudged the pass, otherwise it would’ve been a pick. That’s one missed pick for both teams now, although this one is more damning.
6:18 pm: I wonder if this is the requisite one nice drive that
6:21 pm: Gerald Jones just was under center for a couple of plays; the first was a keeper option for a big gain, the second was a stuffed Foster run. He’s had a lot of tough yardage today, but he’s over 1,000 yards on the season now.
6:24 pm: Thanks to a barely-tipped ball negating a PI call,
6:25 pm: Chick-Fil-A is holding a strong second in frequency of commercials today, but they’re currently 750 behind Dr. Pepper. They’re going to have to pick it up; the Dr. Pepper Big 12 Dr. Pepper Championship Dr. Pepper Game begins soon, and there’s no catching them once that game kicks off.
Dr. Pepper.
6:30 pm: The Tigers are driving again, and this time they’re making the adjustments I was talking about, but Trindon Holliday has the ball pop out (big time! Went way up in the air) and Eric Berry recovers the fumble. He tried to set up a return, with no dice.
6:34 pm: Chris Brown snags his first catch of the game, as he was totally uncovered. He was really quiet in the first half, and it’s good to see the Vols opening up the passing game.
6:36 pm: Gary Danielson makes what I think is his first misstep of the game, saying that the Colts have an early second round pick. I’m about 90% sure that’s not the case, but maybe they do.
6:37 pm: I’ve never understood why the Vols have used Jonathan Crompton in a running-only package all season. We obviously know that he’s going to run, so the defense does too. Predictably he’s stuffed for no gain. Crompton has only three rushes on the season for -9 yards. I don’t get it. Meanwhile,
6:40 pm: Josh Briscoe TD! It’s 14-13
6:46 pm: Eric Berry with a INT! Perriloux threw a Neil O’Donnell-esque pass straight to Eric Berry. On a more disturbing note, I’ve apparently forgotten how to spell and both Lundquist and Danielson are slipping a bit. They’ve been good so far, but I’m getting a little concerned. Plenty of time left, guys – stay on target.
6:48 pm:
6:50 pm: They opt for a FG, but
6:52 pm: It looks like we’re heading to the 4th quarter with the Vols in the lead by 1. It’s a little bit better than I expected, but I’m not getting too excited. Yet. There’s way too much time left, and
6:59 pm: Perriloux doesn’t look right. His passes haven’t been close to being on target, so we may see backup Andrew Hatch. I doubt it; I think that if a backup QB comes in it’ll be Flynn, busted tailbone and all. LSU is forced to punt, and
7:04 pm: That was fun while it lasted. Three-and-out, LSU ball on their own 40.
7:07 pm: Eric Berry with a nice open-field tackle on Early Doucet. This was mainly an excuse to say his name again; he’s played a great game once again. I’ve started swearing at the TV. Doucet is shaken up on the next play, but it ends up as a three-and-out for LSU. I’ll take it. It may give me a heart attack before it’s all said and done, but I’ll take it for now.
7:11 pm: Fake punt by LSU! Pass to Quinn Johnson for a LSU first down. Ouch – that’ll give them some momentum.
7:14 pm: Brett Vinson lays a vicious hit on Demetrius Byrd forcing an incompletion. Good pressure by Xavier Mitchell to force the high pass, too. Speaking of high passes, the play before that should’ve been a TD, but Perriloux overthrew Byrd again.
7:16 pm: I don’t know if Danielson or the side judge is an idiot, but either a) Tolliver lined up in an illegal formation or b) Danielson’s an idiot. Meanwhile, LSU piles up another false start penalty and
Also, fuck Dr. Pepper. I think I should’ve changed “bitch about
7:19 pm: Early Doucet is out for the game with a shoulder injury. Trindon Holliday limped off the field after the last drive. Not pretty. Also not pretty: the all-yellow jerseys that
7:20 pm: Jonathan Zenon jumps his route and turns it into a pick six. It’s 21-14 LSU. That was a killer in so many ways, but it really is more reflective of how the game’s been played so far today. It was somewhat surprising that
7:25 pm: After some early success running the ball, Foster hasn’t done much in the last 30+ minutes. In addition, the refs are doing a great job not calling obvious pass interference penalties, but a 2nd completion to Josh Briscoe results in a first down anyway. It’s not a 40-yard completion, but it is a 20-yarder.
7:28 pm: After yet another completion to Denarius Moore, I realize that we haven’t heard a lot from Lucas Taylor today. Josh Briscoe has been the killer this game. Also, Ainge is finally at 200 yards,
7:30 pm: LSU burns their first TO; there’s just over 6 ½ minutes to go in the game. I wonder if this is one of those TOs that won’t look so good in retrospect.
7:32 pm:
7:34 pm:
7:38 pm: Good God, I’m yelling a bit too loud for my own good. Foster with a HUGE catch-and-run for a 47 yard completion, but the next play results in an INT. Direct pass to Gary Beckwith, who – once again – jumped the route.
7:41 pm:
7:44 pm: Jacob Hester – predictably – gets the killer first down. That’ll be the game, and LSU should sit on it to kill the game.
All things considered, I can’t be too upset with the final result. I’ve been saying all week that this game is a bonus for the Vols; if they won it’d be beautiful, but it was a tall task at the outset. More importantly, they had a chance and at worst proved that they should’ve belonged.
Oddly enough, if you’re going to blame someone for the loss you’d have to blame Erik Ainge, but considering that he pretty much took the team on his back for the last few games of the season I can’t throw him under the bus. It was about as solid a 60 minutes as I could’ve expected, but the two Ainge mistakes – both on coverage reads – killed the Vols.
Aside from those two mistakes, the Vols played what was almost entirely a mistake-free game – no penalties and no fumbles. I could quibble with who was getting the ball – it was basically just Briscoe – but that’s really nitpicking.
Kudos to LSU; Perriloux played one hell of a game and carried them into the Sugar Bowl. Once again, nobody’s beaten the Tigers in regulation. They’ve done their part and hopefully they’ll play in the Capital One Bowl, barring a
SEC Championship Pregame
I was going to write this before, but it wouldn’t exactly be a doubt as to how I’d preview the SEC Championship. It’s not exactly a surprise to know where I’m going to fall in this debate.
Of course, it’s also my team going against the team that I figured was in great position to win a national title. After my last running diary with the
Everyone seems to automatically assume that Georgia should’ve won the SEC East and Tennessee is somehow infringing on the Bulldogs’ God-given right to play in the championship game – yet nobody remembers the giant egg they laid at Neyland Stadium. They take care of business there and we’re not sitting here wondering if
Meanwhile, the Volunteers have been the cardiac kids of the SEC – emphasis on kids. Aside from Erik Ainge, most of the key components of this team will come back next year, and they’ve done a lot of growing up this year. Eric Berry has gone from a liability to a ball hawk; he’ll probably get Early Doucet as his assignment, which is going to be a key matchup. After the Alabama game (which joined the ’06 Arkansas and ’03 Georgia matchups as the only games I’ve willingly walked away from while the game was in progress), I figured it was only a matter of time until the Vols back into their typical mid-tier bowl. Still, they win an OT game over
On the other hand, nobody’s beaten LSU in regulation. But still. Don’t care. Everyone’s picking LSU to win this game big, but ….don’t care. Worst-case scenario is that everyone was right at this point. The best-case scenario is that we tell everyone to screw off. You bet your ass I’m hoping for the latter.
