Ole Miss '09: GIGGITY

The 2008 Season in a Box
Last year was just about the best possible scenario for Ole Miss, not only emerging from the desert of sub-.500 seasons but blowing the doors off of mediocrity to the tune of a 9-4 record. Since we’re already aboard the metaphor train at this point, Ole Miss just got a surprise gift from one of their friends they haven’t seen since high school. Considering how badly they spurned David Cutcliffe at the end of his era, they should be lucky that guy is even talking to them at this point. It was a joyous reunion and a step in a much-needed direction in Oxford if they wanted to have a chance of ditching the demons they awoke with the unceremonious dumping of Cutcliffe.

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Well, this time they’re not sneaking up on anyone for starters. Expectations are about 12 steps past sky-high (this is the first time I can remember the Rebels opening the season in the top 5 in …pretty much ever), so there’s always the chance that the team wilts under the pressure. This is the second year of Nutt’s schemes with this team, too – there should be some improvement based on that alone. More than anything else, nearly all the key players from last year’s team return (including nearly all the skill players) – generally speaking when that happens, everyone thinks that all the guys will get better. All things considered, this team should be different and they should be better than they were last year. Whether that justifies the hype remains to be seen.

On Offense
So the funny thing is that while everyone and their brother knows about Jevan Snead, Ole Miss’ offense still ran the ball 60.6% of the time. Sure, some of those runs were probably QB scrambles, but that won’t get play distribution to anywhere near average. Houston Nutt’s teams typically thrive on the run play, and they’ll have more than one back when things are going well – we don’t already forget the halcyon days of McFadden/Jones, do we? However, it came with a bit of a curveball last year; WR Dexter McCluster actually led the team in yardage (and yards per carry) last season. I’m not totally sold that’ll last this season (in short, we should see another player emerge as a legitimate RB) – I didn’t see quite enough Rebel ball to get a feel for if McCluster runs were designed to operate the way they did, but he had more than a few games where he rushed for over 10 yards, which tells me it was at least kind of intentional.

Whether that continues this year depends on if Enrique Davis is ready to assume the mantle of RB of the future. Cordera Eason will likely still be RB1 (his 140 carries did lead the team) and that shouldn’t change, but Davis should be able to jump Brandon Bolden on the depth chart. They’re of similar size and build, but Davis was the much, much more talented and heralded recruit out of high school – the problem was that he never learned to pass block. If he can jump Bolden as emerge as a 1A to Eason’s 1, then McCluster may also see his carries go down a bit. If he just ends up as a 2, then McCluster will be fine. As it is, I can see McCluster still getting 8-9 touches a game (quite frankly, Nutt thinks he’s explosive enough to warrant that at least based on past performance), but if Eason and Davis get 20-25 between them, then Nutt – and the Rebels – will be happy campers. Of course, with all this being said somehow Bolden has emerged as the starter, which is proof that Nutt's batshit - or I am.

None of this discussion is meant to marginalize Snead’s role within the offense; Snead is the most talented QB Nutt’s had to work with since Matt Jones and may be the best pure passer he’s had (better than Clint Stoerner), which means the passing game is the most dynamic attack Nutt has had in …probably ever. Snead’s still a junior, so his numbers (56% completion percentage, about 2,750 yards, 26/13 TD/INT) should improve slightly, although the smart money is on the completion percentage going up and the interceptions going down. I’d be surprised if the yardage changed substantially, simply because 3,000 yards is going to be the natural peak for anyone running Nutt’s offense. There aren’t enough opportunities to suggest otherwise at this point.

The semi-ironic part of the Rebel passing offense is that the WRs have either talented or a solid track record. Not only did McCluster lead the team in rushing last year, but he also was third on the team in yards, too – Shay Hodge was also ahead of him, beating him in all three major categories (yards, yards per reception, TDs). The now-departed Mike Wallace trumped both of them, though. Fortunately, the Rebels have a new highly-regarded talent in incoming WR Pat Patterson and WR Markeith Summers is only a junior. I don’t think the talent is there to have a true 3-WR offense like the Rebels had most of last year – there’s one heck of a drop-off between McCluster’s 625 yards receiving and WR Lionel Breaux’s 178, which was 4th on the team – but Hodge and McCluster are the unquestioned 1-2 WR combo. If Patterson, Summers, and Breaux can get near 1,000 yards between them, then the passing game won’t have any regression at all.

At this point, we should know what offense Nutt’s going to run: run-heavy with a fair amount of 3-WR sets and some non-QB play receiving the ball (they’re calling it the Wild Rebel this time). McCluster should set up as the point man for the Wild Rebel again this season, and since Nutt’s general idea is the more players running the ball the merrier, get used to it. The offense should be better by all rights; Wallace is the only significant loss, and there are enough players available to make up the production gap. The biggest question mark is going to be on the line, since they lose star LT Michael Oher (coming soon to a theater near you- get up in arms over the movie somewhere else, since I’m not paying attention at this point) and may break in a true freshman at that position. Fortunately, practicing against Greg Hardy may get him to grow up a bit.

On Defense and Special Teams
Let’s start with the bad news first: the Rebels lost four of their top five tacklers from last season, including 1st-round draft pick Peria Jerry. However, most of the guys they lost didn’t have a huge impact aside from serving as tackling dummies (yes, Jamarca Sanford was a draft pick too, but still). Now, other than those guys the defense is back in force, and that includes noted sack artist Greg Hardy (who had 8.5 sacks in limited action after missing the first three games). The defensive line is the unquestioned beast of the defensive unit – Greg Hardy as a non-starter should be a clear tipoff.

The rest of the defense should be good, but not great; everyone’s only replacing one starter so that helps, but there aren’t any world-beaters among those returning. FS Kendrick Lewis is the closest guy to a star the Rebels have on the rest of the roster, and he’s not quite the guy to be tabbed as the second-best player on the defensive unit. Still, the secondary and LB corps put up decent numbers last year and should be expected to do something similar this season. They’ll look a bit better than they would on their own thanks to the defensive line. This may end up falling just short of what a typical championship-caliber defense should be; if they do pursue the path of a champion, not only does Lewis need to have his best season yet, but either CB Cassius Vaughn or CB Marshay Green needs to emerge as a shutdown corner and either LB Jonthan Cornell or LB Allen Walker needs to turn into a giant tackling dummy.

On the other hand, K Joshua Shene is one of the best in the SEC; he’s pretty much automatic at anything inside 40 yards, which should be the province of this offense most of the time. Justin Sparks moves from kickoff specialist to punter as well; while it’s technically new for him, he should do well enough. The return games will be interesting; Marshay Green will return as the punt returner but there’s a gap in kickoff returns; maybe Pat Patterson or Enrique Davis can step in.

So What’s Their Bowl Game?
They’re national title contenders for a reason: they came on like wildfire at the end last year and pretty much dismantled Big 12 South winner Texas Tech (what, they tied Texas and Oklahoma too – you make your generalizations, I’ll make mine). With most of the troops back – and what isn’t back replaced – they’re in great shape. Of course, expectations are sky-high when your toughest road game is South Carolina. They get all the major SEC West contenders are home and don’t really play anyone of note from the East, unless you count a home game against Tennessee as “of note”, and expectations for those teams aren’t even on the same planet. While they may not quite be good enough to get through their entire schedule unscathed – I think they’re in for a nasty surprise against Alabama, who isn’t close to the talent level of anyone they play prior – at 11-1, they can still be in the running for the SEC Championship Game if things break right. They’ve got a decent shot at a BCS bowl either way, and if not a return trip to the Cotton Bowl (or the Capital One Bowl) will still be one of the better two-year runs in Rebel history.

Now, if they get past Alabama then the sky’s the limit – Sugar Bowl or BCS Championship Game ahoy. LSU is the second-toughest team on the normal schedule, and we’ll just assume they’d have to navigate Florida to make it all the way. That … that may be easier said than done.

Florida Gators '09: Yes, they're as good as everyone says

The 2008 Season in a Box
Last season had to have been one of those nice gifts that come in Tiffany boxes or something like that. You never actually get anything in those boxes, but that rich-as-shit couple down the street sure enjoys getting them, and that Land Rover that showed up mysteriously three months ago still grates on you. Of course, this grates on you because that family is just a little more upper-crust than you are, and lordy, does that grate when you have nothing better to do with your time than compare net worth. It’s like Desperate Housewives, or at least how I think it’d be since I’ve never seen that god-forsaken show. In reality I imagine it’s like most of the middle-upper-class suburbia, when people have nothing better to do but covet, complain about service, and be complete dicks to everyone around. POWER TO THE PROLETARIAT

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Sadly, there’s no reason at all to think it’ll be any different. Freaking everyone and their brother returns except for Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy – and I think they were the only people on the team to leave, period. The Gators return nearly everyone on their two-deep on defense, three of the five on the offensive line, and just because this team isn’t inappropriately talented enough, the second-team SEC punter. Not that they’ll need him. The biggest question mark is the departure of offensive coordinator Dan Mullen to Mississippi State, and even I don’t think that’ll turn out to be a big deal at all. Whether or not anyone else thinks that depends on how much of an impact Mullen’s departure will have on the Gator offense; this offense has always had Meyer’s stamp on it, and Mullen’s departure won’t change that.

On Offense
I’m so proud of myself that I went two whole paragraphs without mentioning Tim Tebow. Look, at this point there’s a whole damn blog devoted to him (which amazingly isn’t completely tongue-in-cheek) so it goes without saying he’s kind of a big deal. He makes this version of the Meyer offense go. I remember a few years back about how I was completely scared shitless about the Tebow era at Florida; I was right. Tebow’s blossomed into one of the best college football players of all time so far, and is hands-down one of the best players and leaders in the SEC. Expecting Tebow to be anything less than a contender for the Berry Award (formerly known as the little dude with a stiff arm trophy) is going to be a grievous mistake, and he’ll probably give some speech about it that ends up memorialized on 40 UF coeds’ backs before it’s all said and done.

The problem – if it actually exists – is that there’s kind of a lack of playmakers with the rest of the offense, at least on a relative scale. Percy Harvin is gone, and while there’s certainly no shortage of talent across the board, nobody on the team has shown to be the kind of legitimate gamebreaker like Harvin was. Jeffery Demps has come closest so far, but he has his work cut out for him to come anywhere near the 1,200 all-purpose yards and 17 TDs Harvin picked up last year.

Of course, it’s not really much of a slight against them if they don’t have a once-every-decade type player in Harvin, because they’re loaded aside from him. The running game will be one of those obscene multi-back approaches that drives opposing DCs nuts; while most people have heard of the quarkback combination that is the Demps/Rainey combo, Emmanuel Moody should be ready to assume more of the workload. Moody spent part of last season in Meyer’s doghouse, but came into his own in the second part of the year. With Moody getting regular PT, Florida has four legitimate rushing options counting Tebow in any given play; that’s a nightmare for opponents. If Moody ends up back in the doghouse, then the Tebow/Demps/Rainey combination is still dangerous, but they will be lacking a true next-level threat. I think either Demps or Rainey could do that, but they won’t be able to do that getting 15-20 carries a game apiece, simply because defenses will see them too much.

The receiving corps is in similar shape as the running backs. Last year TE Cornelius Ingram spent the entire year injured and Aaron Hernandez had to step in as the everyday TE; he did so admirably and will function in a similar role as he did last year. Of course, he’s about the only guy whose approach and numbers will stay nearly the same this season. Most of the other guys will be stepping into larger roles; of that crew, Deonte Thompson is the most obvious guy to step up to the next level. He averaged right around 15 ypr last year (technically it was less than David Nelson, who actually averaged an even 15.0 ypr), but that may go down a bit as his role increases. Either way, someone – likely one of those two – will need to step up. It hurts when Florida not only loses their two best receivers from a yardage and TD basis, but from a ypr basis, too. With that being said, they have three guys – Riley Cooper is the third – who averaged between 14 and 15 ypr last season, so at least one of them will probably move into the 16-17 range that’ll put them among the conference leaders.

Meyer’s offense is something I term pro-style spread: there are enough playmakers that a half-decent scheme will exploit what’s likely going to be at least one mismatch on any given play. Shockingly, the offense isn’t that complex as these offenses go, but what it loses in complexity it gets in balance. Expecting anything else would be a mistake.

On Defense and Special Teams
Really, the reason Florida scares the crap out of me this year more than last year is the entire defense is back. All the starters return, including 1st-team All-American LB Brandon Spikes and three guys (DE Carlos Dunlap, CB Joe Haden, SS Ahmad Black) from the 2nd-team SEC defense last year. Steele has a total of 7(!) starters on all four of his teams, so yes, they’re talented. Everyone who recorded at least 15 tackles returns.

On paper, there’s no reason that they shouldn’t be at least as dominant as they were last year. Fortunately, they have regression; I don’t think they’ll end up with 26 picks again this season, and their defensive yards-per-point was over 22 (by comparison, anything over 17.5 normally indicates some kind of record regression). Unfortunately, even if they increase their points allowed by 50% that’s still not even 20 points per game, and with the offense averaging over 40 points per game (again, that was also beneficial), it probably won’t matter.

Charlie Strong by all rights should be a head coach somewhere; he’s one of the best in the game at what he does. While other guys (hi, Orson!) will chalk that up to extracurricular ideas, I’ll be charitable and say apparently he hasn’t done enough to prove himself. Really, even I think that’s bullshit; Florida’s lucky enough to have two guys who could be head coaches somewhere. Good for them that they’re lucky enough to have that, and shame on everyone else for hiring retreads.

So What’s Their Bowl Game?
Just in case it wasn’t unfair enough that Florida has this level of talent, they also have a pretty favorable schedule. Their only tough road game is at LSU (and if you’d like to bet on that being a night game, that’s already been pulled from the board, sorry) and their home games aren’t hiding anything. Really, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be double-digit favorites in every game save the LSU game and the SEC Championship Game, meaning we’re looking at a team who should be in the BCS Championship Game. Of course, now watch them lose to ….um, LSU. Even I’m not gutsy enough to say they’ll lose to Tennessee.

Georgia Bulldogs '09: ARP ARP ARP ARP ARP

The 2008 Season in a Box
Last year should’ve been played with “The Price Is Right” loser’s theme on an infinite loop in the background. Georgia bet aggressively after opening as the pre-season #1 and riding emotional momentum to what would hopefully be heights they hadn’t seen in a while. Unfortunately for them (fortunately for the rest of us), the Alabama blackout stomping pretty much killed any realistic shot they had at competing for a title – and what little bit of life they had after that got ground into paste by Urban Meyer. It wasn’t that last year’s team was bad, but when you make it to the showcase you don’t bid $1 on how much the grand prize costs. But thanks for playing, guys.

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Other than losing your two first-round draft picks out of the backfield? That’s what we term a “minor adjustment”; sure, you can debate whether or not Stafford was worth the first overall pick (my take has always been he needs to have something resembling consistent accuracy to make him worth the top pick, and there’s a very good reason I was making jokes about his accuracy all season), but at the end of the day he’s gone and so is talented workhorse Knowshon Moreno. Georgia at this point is talented enough to overcome their losses to some degree, but there’s a fine line between overcome and excel. Of course, last year was a bit of a disappointment. Hopefully they’ll wear their black jerseys in all their games next year.

On Offense
With the departure of Matt Stafford to the Lions – I’m not sure if that’s a step up – Joe Cox will likely step in as the starting QB. We last saw Cox in 2006 as an occasional passer before Stafford stepped in as a true frosh. Cox isn’t exactly shabby, but he wasn’t blessed with the howitzer that Stafford owned; now that he’s a senior, he’ll be a capable but likely not outstanding guy under center. Logan Gray is your prototypical change-of-pace backup QB; we’ll call him dual-threat, but since he’s a sophomore, his accuracy is probably measured in miles, not in inches. The best-case scenario for Gray and Cox is that they’re used in a similar fashion as David Greene and DJ Shockley were back in 2004; of course, that year Shockley also failed to complete 50% of his passes, which probably proves my point.

The running game will likely remind people of some reason between 2004 and 2006; while there’s not a dominant, establish rusher in the batch, there are a couple of guys who are good enough to start. Caleb King had the starting RB spot in good hands up until he screwed up and lost it; now he’ll be in a battle with Richard Samuel for RB1. The main difference between 2004 and 2005/2006 is how effective the second back was; in 2004 both Thomas Brown and Danny Ware were quality, dangerous backs who had basically 700+ yards apiece. In 2005, Brown was the true star but there were two guys underneath him who had nearly an equal amount of yards, but 2006 was the relative dud of the lot. With the talent in the backfield, 2004 is a more likely outcome than 2006, and a situation like 2007 (when Moreno burst onto the scene) isn’t terribly likely unless true freshman Washaun Easley blows everyone away in the first few weeks of the season. It’s not a bad thing that Georgia will end up with a 2 RB system; truth be told I’m actually a fan of multi-back attacks, as it lets coaches sub in and out without sacrificing a rushing threat. (It’s the converse of the dual-threat QB who can’t pass; sure, he may put the ball in the air, but he probably won’t, and if he does it shouldn’t be hard to stop it from being completed.)

WR is a bit more settled than the backfield spots; sure, Football Jesus finally lived up to his billing as a senior, but AJ Green was the true star of the unit and he’s only a sophomore. At nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TDs last year – again, as a freshman – he has a pretty decent shot of getting above the elusive 1,000 yard / 10 TD watermarks that SEC receivers typically don’t get to; in the last 5 years, only 7 players have reached that mark – and of that crew, only Sydney Rice and Earl Bennett reached that mark as sophomores. Green’s emergence as that kind of threat will be dependent in part on whether Michael Moore, Tavarres King, or Marlon Brown can emerge as enough of a threat that defenses don’t just rotate coverage over to Green’s side and dare Cox to beat them to the other receivers. Of those guys, Brown is the most intriguing; he’s a Green clone by size and recruiting acumen, but he’s also a true freshman. There’s also a chance that TE Aron White or Orson Charles emerges as a receiving threat; since it’s a new QB that should help their production.

Richt and OC Mike Bobo have done a great job tailoring the offense to what’s there; ostensibly it’s a pro-style offense, but it’s the kind of pro-style offense I like – there’s a basic set of concepts, but the concepts and plays are tailored to suit the personnel. As a result, it ends up as dynamic without becoming predictable, and Georgia’s done a good job of fielding a respectable at worst offense. Even with the absence of their two biggest stars, this season should be similar.

On Defense and Special Teams
If Georgia had a shortcoming last year, it was the defense inexplicably crapping the bed against good teams. The aggregates weren’t bad (although their opposing 3.6 ypc was the highest since ’05), but in every loss they were pretty much steamrolled: Alabama had 45 carries (although the 2.9 ypc was good), Florida averaged nearly 5 yards a carry over their 38 runs, and Georgia Tech had a staggering 7.3(!) ypc on 56 carries. Hell, even Kentucky (4.0, 56), LSU (4.6, 41), and Georgia Southern (2.9, 35, but triple option 1-AA team) were way more successful than they should’ve been.

By that standard, it’s a good thing that 6 of the front 7 return; WLB Rennie Curran is the star of the bunch, but DT Geno Atkins is pretty damn good in his own right. The secondary isn’t quite as lucky, but SS Reshad Jones should keep that unit from collapsing under its own weight. Really, the secondary wasn’t the problem last year (unless failing to tackle at the second level counts as a problem, which it probably does), but since Georgia’s two new starters are a FS who didn’t see a lot of action last season and a true freshman, there will be some growing pains.

Blair Walsh returns as K; he was Georgia’s only K last year even as a freshman, so he’ll have one heck of a leash. As these things go, he’s pretty good. Drew Butler steps into the full-time punting role after doing most of his punting from opponent’s territory last year. As for the return games, they’re nothing to write home about and fall solidly into the “mildly, but not spectacularly dangerous” category like so many teams.

As much as I hate saying it, Willie Martinez needs to have the defense return to prior form this season; if that doesn’t happen, I can’t see him sticking around. Last year had typical Georgia defense in some games but they just plain didn’t show up in others; with the question marks the Bulldogs have on offense, a consistent defense will keep them from losing a game or two they probably shouldn’t. As a Tennessee fan, I can only hope it’s inconsistent but quality enough to keep Martinez around, as I have no doubts Georgia would only move up on the DC list if Martinez was to leave.

So What’s Their Bowl Game?
This looks like a New Year’s Day bowl type of team; right now they look pretty inexperienced, but Arkansas / Auburn / LSU out of the West is pretty easy, relatively speaking. The only thing that would be better is if they swapped LSU for Mississippi State. There’s a tough road opener at Oklahoma State which should give everyone a clue as to how the defense will perform in elite games; we’ll have to wait for the aforementioned LSU game to see how the offense performs against elite defenses, though. As things stand, they’re clearly the 2nd-best team in the SEC East and should end up in the Outback Bowl if things go kind of according to plan; whether that’s 10-2 with losses to Florida and LSU or 8-4 with the aforementioned two losses coupled with losing to Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech it’s still 6-2 in-conference. The Capital One Bowl isn’t out of the question with a win against LSU, but this team’s success will be defined by how the defense matures after a rough 2008 – and if it returns to form, this team will be dangerous again in 2010.

LSU Tigers '09: Returning from relative disaster

The 2008 Season in a Box
2008 had to be a turducken – depending on when in the season we’re talking about, the emphasis may go in different places. I mean, it’s always nice to open a season 4-0 (even if we grossly misjudged the implications of that LSU-Auburn game, which was actually Auburn’s 2nd-highest output against a 1A team last year), but getting stomped at Florida is always a bit of a wakeup call. From there, it was a bit of a rough-and-tumble ride through the rest of the season, especially a disastrous 1-3 stretch to close the season. Of those losses, only the Arkansas one is really inexcusable, but don’t forget that win over Troy was only thanks to a pretty epic comeback. They made up for it by an utter curbstomping of Georgia Tech, but this was still a down year by the recent standards of LSU.

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
No more Jarrett Lee for starters (aka Captain Pick-Six); he’ll be at best second on the depth chart and likely third. I could probably write a novel or two about how completely improbable is it to have seven(!) passes intercepted for TDs over the course of a season – and I doubt we’ll see anything like that for a generation or so – but there’s simply no way LSU will let Lee get too many snaps at QB this season. That alone should be enough to generate another win or so, maybe two. Since the losses on either side of the ball aren’t too severe, simple year-over-year improvement should point to a 10-win campaign at minimum, right?

On Offense
Well, Jarrett Lee’s gone – it was already said last paragraph but it bears repeating. That means Jordan Jefferson should get the majority of the snaps; Jefferson played sparingly most of the season before getting chucked into the fire against Ole Miss and Arkansas to close the season. After a couple of lackluster (but mostly interception-free; yes, the bar was set that low) performances, he also got the start in the Peach Chick-Fil-A Bowl against Georgia Tech, which mercifully went a bit better. Sure, a sub-50% completion percentage as a freshman isn’t something you want to hang your hat on, but given the alternative the Tigers will go with that. If Jefferson fails, elite true freshman Russell Shephard is waiting in the wings; Shephard and Jefferson have similar skill sets so LSU won’t really lose a lot other than experience by bringing Shephard in if needed. On the other hand, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to bring Shephard in as a change-of-pace either.

LSU’s running game has always been fascinating to me. Typically they seem to run 4 or 5 backs deep, yet they also tend to be a primary-back system under Les Miles. I suspect that I’m still conflating the Saban and Miles eras since there wasn’t much of a dropoff between the two (Saban in particular goes multi-back like it’s going out of style), but Charles Scott emerged from the fray last year as a legitimate power feature back, coming from relative obscurity to snag the #1 overall spot (and justifiably so, checking in at nearly 1,175 yards and 18 TDs). That relegated Keiland Williams to #2 overall RB again … for the third straight year. Even more impressively, he’s been between 400 and 500 yards every single year, too. Most of the other major rushers are of the bit player variety; Richard Murphy is the best known of the rest of the crop, but at this point we’re talking RB3 and beyond, so it’s not a big deal.

Although LSU’s passing game is largely going to be dictated by the success of whoever’s getting snaps at QB, they’re at least talented. Brandon LaFell is the unquestioned established star of the group – it always helps when you get to return a 1st-team SEC WR – but it’s the non-LaFell guys that are intriguing. (We know what we’re getting from LaFell.) TE Richard Dickson is one of the few TEs in the country who actually figure into the passing game; he’s no DJ Williams but he’s pretty good as these things go. With that being said, we know what we’ll get from him. What we don’t know yet is how Terrance Tolliver, Reuben Randle, or anyone else will factor into the passing game. Last year LSU had enough production for 2 WRs but that was it, and Demitrius Byrd’s 500 yards / 4 TDs paled next to LaFell’s 929 / 8. Tolliver – and to a possibly lesser extent, Randle – should be good enough to at least match Byrd’s output (and remember, with a better QB production should go up anyway).

This’ll be Gary Crowton’s third year serving as OC for the Tigers; as a result, there shouldn’t be too much to learn with respect to schemes. They’ll run some ace / shotgun variant most of the time, as Crowton really isn’t a big fan of a non-feature back set. The one wild card LSU has on offense is how they use Trindon Holliday. We seem to come back to this year after year, but Holliday is fast – one of the fastest players in football. However, even with that obvious speed advantage Holliday’s skills haven’t translated well to using him on offense. The downside with Holliday is that he pretty much has to have the ball when he’s on the field, as he’s going to be shorter and lighter than pretty much anyone he blocks saved undersized CBs. That in turn limits playcalls when Holliday’s in the game, which isn’t technically his fault but is his fault, if that makes sense. (It’s hard to run in stilts.)

On Defense and Special Teams
As LSU defenses go, last year’s outfit was pretty terrible. That may have been a function of having two DCs (when you have two, you have none?), but Les Miles canned both of them in the offseason and brought in ex-Tennessee DC John Chavis. Chavis was the best hire available from both a productivity and familiarity standpoint; not only was he responsible for fielding quality defenses – including last year’s Tennessee outfit that kept them in more games than the offense had any right to be – but he’s familiar with everyone’s schemes in the SEC. That in turn means he’ll be able to bring LSU’s defense up to speed a bit faster than another DC would, which means LSU’s already-talented defense should be in good shape going forward.

As LSU personnel goes, this is similar to most of their previous defenses in terms of talent. They’re replacing a lot of their defensive line, though; DE Rahim Alem is the only returning starter. Of course, Alem was also first-team SEC last year, so there are worse fates. Most of the LB and secondary returns intact, save the departures of Darryl Beckwith at MLB and Curtis Taylor at FS. However, they’re replacing both those guys with high-quality talent: Petty Riley moves into the starting MLB role and Chad Jones slides over to start at FS. On an unrelated note, he also doubles as a reliever for LSU’s baseball team and is so massively oversized compared to everyone else on the field that it looks like he’s throwing a pea. We’re also seeing the emergence of one heck of a secondary; CB Patrick Patterson started the last four games of last season as a true freshman, and the Tigers picked up the best CB recruit in the country in 6’2” Craig Loston – who made it in for the spring to boot. This won’t be the year that it all comes together, but this should scare any team looking to go pass-happy going forward.

The odd thing about this year’s defense is they’re not quite as heralded as typical LSU defenses; heck, they’re not even the best defense in their own division. (That distinction falls to Alabama.) For a team whose recent defenses have been known to strike fear in the hearts of opposing fans two weeks in advance, having a defense that gets to fight for the title of 2nd-best in the SEC West is one heck of a change. For now, I think they’re a slightly better defense than Ole Miss, although there are certainly arguments in either direction – the main thing that LSU has that Ole Miss doesn’t is upside in the secondary. That should offset Ole Miss’s decided advantage on the defensive line, but they will have some trouble stopping the run.

Since K Colt David departed after last season, kicking duties will fall to Josh Jasper. It’s a similar story with the punters; Brady Dalfrey is replaced by Derek Helton. Both guys were pretty talented, so their loss will sting a bit. The return games, on the other hand, are in pretty decent shape; Trindon Holliday slots in as the main punt and kick returner; Holliday in the kick return game in particular is dangerous and a half, and he pretty much can’t be caught in the open field if he gets behind defenses. Still, his numbers aren’t totally what you’d expect given his insane speed.

So What’s Their Bowl Game?
LSU at this point is a darkhorse BCS contender. They’ve addressed their two main problems (QB play, iffy defensive play) as best as they can reasonably address them, and their talent level last year wasn’t 8-5 at all. Their biggest problem is the schedule; they draw Florida and Georgia out of the East and have to play both Ole Miss and Alabama on the road. If they navigate that stretch at 3-1, then they’re legitimate title contenders; however, 2-2 is more realistic and 1-3 may even be likely. Depending on how 2-2 breaks, they may be in decent shape to get to the SEC Championship with a little bit of help. At 2-2 without enough help or at 1-3, LSU’s probably looking at the Cotton Bowl provided they win the rest of their games, which aren’t too difficult with the possible exception of the season-ender at Arkansas.

South Carolina '09: In which the 'Cocks attempt to leave the shadow of everyone else in the divison

The 2008 Season in a Box
You know that box that your family’s used for Christmas gifts for the last 15 years? It’s kind of turned into a running joke, and whoever gets that box is kind of a minor celebrity for the rest of the day – or at least for the few hours before Grandpa gets into the ‘nog and starts rehashing WWII stories to the grandkids for the 400th time. It’s cool that he does that, but does he really need to tell the kids about picking up hookers outside of Paris again?

The funny thing is that there’s nothing special about this box; it just developed a mythos of its own after a few years. It’s pretty much average – it’s held up well over the years, but that’s about it. For South Carolina, that describes nearly every season of the last 7 years; sure, they’re 44-39 over those seasons, but their bowl games over those years read like the who’s who of who cares: Independence, Liberty, Outback. On the plus side, at least they’re still relevant.

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Well, what’s gone isn’t too terribly important, but what’s replacing it isn’t much better in a lot of cases. Improvement will be measured in the form of any semblance of a running game and the defense not regressing a bit.

On Offense
South Carolina frankly has never had the personnel to run anything related to the Fun ‘n’ Gun of Spurrier’s Florida days, but he does have the most talented QB of his reign in Stephen Garcia, who gets the reins after last year’s starter Chris Smelley transferred to Alabama. Garcia was a big deal recruiting, as far as these things go; to me, he feels like he’s been around forever already, but he’s only a sophomore. Last year wasn’t great for him (53.3%, 832 yards, 6/8) but that shouldn’t happen again. I’d expect around 57-58% with maybe a 1.5/1 ratio, which are solid but not superstar numbers. This would put him somewhere around the fringes of starting in most deeper leagues and likely a bye-week option at best.

Of course, with any QB, their fantasy results are only as good as who they’re surrounded with. This year shapes up to be even more of a wasteland than prior years; only WR Moe Brown and TE Weslye Saunders even crack Steele’s fourth team, at which point even the Prognosticator throws up his hands and goes “I got nothing.” It’ll be up to Garcia to make these guys look palatable, and help isn’t entirely on the way. WR Dion LeCorn should be decent – he’s certainly talented enough to be good, even in this offense – but he’s spent most of the last couple of years underachieving. Sure, true freshman WR Alashon Jeffery may contribute this year, but with this offense looking completely inept I see no real reason not to redshirt him and try again next year. If he doesn’t contribute, Jason Barnes and Lamar Scruggs’ roles will increase.

Quite frankly, someone needs to step up and be a legitimate #2 receiver. Hell, I’d settle for a #2.5, but they need a #1 too, and that’s not a good spot to be in. None of these guys particularly excite me, so maybe we’ll see a 1.5 / 2 combo of Brown and someone else. There’s enough potential floating around here that I think they’ll be okay provided Garcia can 1) get on track and 2) stay on track. Until we see that happen though, steer clear of these guys.

On the other hand, the passing game looks solid compared to the rushing attack. Mike Davis is gone, but maybe that’s a good thing; his 573 yards rushing led the team, but 3.5 ypc out of a leading rusher is not something to maintain from year to year. Eric Baker and Brian Maddox are the leading returning RBs; they thankfully averaged 4.0 ypc and 3.8 ypc last year, which …well, while it’s technically a step up, it still sucks. Someone will need to get near 4.5 ypc for USC to even have a competent rushing attack (remember that sacks will knock their aggregate numbers back a bit); Baker seems the better option of the two to get that, but true frosh RB Jarvis Giles may sneak carrier. While I’m not a fan of Jeffery seeing a ton of action, Giles may be needed to contribute, as this pack is pretty weak.

On Defense and Special Teams
This season will answer the chicken-egg question: was South Carolina’s defensive prowess last year the product of Ellis Johnson’s system or 9 returning starters? Eric Norwood returns this season – calling him quality is an understatement – but other than him it’s all fresh faces and peach fuzz in the LB corps. Depth will be fueled in part by JUCOs, but there’s no other obvious impact player among the pack. The defensive line is in pretty good shape at least, relatively speaking. They have three starters back – Cliff Matthews may be the best among those guys – and while none of them are world-beaters, when most of the rest of the defense is rolling over these things are appreciated.

Ellis Johnson has always done a good job making a game ugly – it’s likely no coincidence that Mississippi State went downhill once he left – so this is the kind of defense that he’d probably love. Other than Norwood (and maybe Stewart), there aren’t any stars or guys to build around here, which means they’ll somehow have their best season yet and nobody will be able to figure out how. This defense reminds me – go figure – of the MSU defenses of a few years ago; other than Derek Pegues, did anyone know anybody on that team? Last year’s outfit wasn’t too bad until the last three games of the year (Florida completely woodshedded them); if USC can even end up around the aggregate numbers they posted last year they’ll be in good enough shape to contend. If they play like they did the first 10 games of the season, they’ll be dominant.

K Ryan Succop finally (finally!) graduated, Spencer Lanning will now pull double duty; Lanning’s a good punter but it’s anyone’s guess as to how that will translate to placekicking. Normally these transitions aren’t too bad, but Succop was a good kicker, so even if Lanning is average it’ll feel like a downgrade. The return game may end up doubling up, too; Chris Culliver will likely slot in as the punt returner to go with his KR duties. Culliver’s a bit above average, but I don’t expect him to be a gamebreaker-type returner. Giles and/or Jeffery may get some action here too if they don’t end up redshirting, but any KR duties will be in conjunction with their contribution in the offense, not their sole contribution. The D/ST combo should be halfway decent, but they’re probably subpar for the SEC, and as such shouldn’t be looked at in shallower leagues. Similarly, there’s nothing special about Lanning.

So What’s Their Bowl Game?
The schedule does the Gamecocks no favors, as they draw Ole Miss and Alabama out of the West to go with “rival” Arkansas. Even the non-conference slate isn’t easy, especially if NC State is actually on the rise and not just talking about being better. There’s a not-insignificant chance that even though this team improves a bit that the record going into bowl season won’t be much different than it was in 2008; truth be told, 7-5 may even need to include an upset. Still, with the SEC bowl tie-ins even a New Year’s Day bowl is an outside shot, although I’d be surprised if they move much above Music City on the pecking order.

Vanderbilt Commodores '09: When the revolution continues

The 2008 Season in a Box
Last season was like getting a nice DVR from your grandmother. You know, the one that’s given you socks every year for the last eternity. Maybe she’s wised up and knows you don’t need 750 pairs of socks that have jack-eyed Santa, but let’s be honest here: she’s 93 and probably thinks you’re a walking chicken at this point. I wouldn’t expect a repeat, and grandma probably isn’t going to get better anytime soon, either.

On the other hand, grandma didn’t start rolling around in shit like Vanderbilt did during the second half of the season. Vandy spent most of the second half of the season taking it in the ass from karma after opening up 5-0, including two equally improbable wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina. (That Ole Miss win in particular was a brilliant “wtf?” moment come January.) Considering the ‘Dores lost nearly a yard per play on the offense-defense spectrum (4.2 offensive ypp compared to 4.9 ypp defensive), it should be pretty clear that Vanderbilt did this on a lot of luck and fortunately timed turnovers. Shockingly, their yards per point weren’t completely out of the realm of reasonability on either offense or defense. They also had one of the best field goal defenses in the country last year, which is a small enough sample size that I feel pretty good labeling as a non-repeatable skill.

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Well, aside from the regression of luck? There’s not a huge change; incoming / likely QB Larry Smith is rumored to be halfway decent, but that’s no guarantee and backup QB Mackenzi Adams is still waiting in the wings for when things inevitably go to hell. Still, Vanderbilt really hasn’t lost anyone they’d care about going forward (Chris Nickson never really lived up to his promise) on offense. On defense, losing Reshard Langford and DJ Moore will hurt but everyone else returns.

Still, at the end it comes down to a regression of luck; they’re probably not going to win 6 games by less than a TD next year, and that’s not a problem unless you like the idea of winning games.

On Offense
Remember what I was saying about Larry Smith? If you don’t, get your memory checked; it’s not like I wrote that much about him, and it wasn’t that far ago. Smith was the first QB to really look capable under or behind center since – gasp! – Jay Cutler, and god only knows how far back you’d have to go to find someone else who actually looked good enough for you to consider taking back home to momma. Truth be told, I don’t know enough about Smith to say whether or not he’d be any good, but he’ll get handed the reins as a sophomore so he can’t be too bad, right? We’ll just peg him for “Crompton-plus” and figure out the details later; he feels like a caretaker-type QB who’s going to be asked to lead a mostly-inept offense. If he struggles, Mackenzi Adams will come under center yet again. He’s a prognosticator’s dream; he has a pretty well established tradition of sucking donkey balls, and is one of the only QBs I can remember with a sub-50% completion percentage who isn’t a “dual threat” (read: running QB who can’t throw for shit) – Adams isn’t a Weeblie either, but he’s certainly not someone who can beat you with his legs. Or his arm.

On the plus side, Smith really has nobody to throw it to. Okay, so maybe that’s not “plus”, but it isn’t surprising. Leading receiver Sean Walker is gone, leaving TE(!) Brandon Barden as the leader returning receiver; lest you get excited about that, he only had 209 yards on the season and may split catches with backup TE Austin Monahan. I mean, it’s creative certainly and it’s probably good from a schematic standpoint, but there’s more than a bit of cannibalizing something that isn’t even there to begin with. Shockingly, most of the returning & starting WRs are young; and returning starter Udon Umoh is not only a sophomore, but is awesome only because of his name. Other guys that’ll be pulling down catches include Terence Jeffers (junior), John Cole (freshman, redshirt), Tray Herndon (sophomore), and Akeen Dunham (freshman, redshirt). Justin Wheeler is recovering from a torn ACL in spring ball; based on that I’d be surprised if he’s useful this season. However, don’t expect that just because these guys are young they’re all talented; Cole may be the most talented of the lot, but these guys weren’t exactly burning up Rivals. It’s a fair bet to assume at least one of these guys will have a season approaching the 6th guy on Texas Tech’s reception total, but more than that is going to be an exercise in futility.

I was all set for a string of Cassen Jackson-Garrison jokes regarding Vandy’s RB situation, but ….well, he graduated two years ago, not even last year. So much for that idea. On the other hand, it does show how replaceable the RB position has been for Vanderbilt lately; not only do you probably not know Jared Hawkins led the team last year with nearly 600 yards, but you probably also didn’t know he got forced into the starting role after previous starting RB Jeff Jennings got injured. Hawkins isn’t bad, and Vanderbilt’s ypc numbers aren’t awful at 3.7 ypc, but they’re certainly not good, and Hawkins isn’t good enough to break the mold that’s been set for the last ten-plus years. Aside from him, the other RBs are strictly of the organizational depth variety; this will probably be the only non-Vanderbilt affiliated site you’ll read the names Kennard Reeves or Gaston Miller before next season, so treasure this moment. The rushing game should get a boost from an offensive line that returns all its starters – quite a jump from last year’s 3 returning starts. Of course, that doesn’t mean these guys are super-experienced, but any step is a step up from greenhorn.

I would love to speak more about what kind of schemes Bobby Johnson uses, but quite frankly I have no idea. Most of the writing about him is of the “he’s a good coach, underrated, in a tough conference” variety and not of the “this is what he runs” variety. This happens when you coach Vanderbilt and your offense hasn’t done anything in ages. Based on this, I assume that Vanderbilt runs some pro-type hybrid derivative; there’s no incentive for them to run any spread-type offense, both because that’s kind of hit its peak and Vanderbilt has no incentive to go playmaker vs. playmaker in the SEC. As such, they’ll generally keep it conservative and win where they can; it’s not pretty but you don’t win titles in Nashville by being pretty.

On Defense / Special Teams
Let’s start with the bad news: Vanderbilt loses two of their best players from the secondary in DJ Moore (4th-round pick by Chicago) and Reshard Johnson. On the plus side, these are the only guys Vanderbilt loses. The defense has a rough patch to hoe; the offense relies on these guys to help keep it close, but if they can’t keep the other team under or around 20 points this team is going to struggle. Fortunately, last year the defense said “fuck this” to the offense’s inability to score and chipped in a few pick-sixes and a fumble return to make the final margins not look god-awful. There’s no guarantee this will happen again – my gut feeling is these things regress pretty heavily from year to year (except at the margins, which is Eric Berry’s territory), so while the defense may turn in one, expecting two would be a bit much to ask. If that happens, smart money is on either FS Ryan Hamilton or CB Myron Lewis – who, not coincidentally, also have the only returning interceptions on the team.

Aside from the secondary – which should still be solid – you probably haven’t heard of anyone on the Vanderbilt defense. DE Steven Stone is the team’s leading sack artist, and with him and seven of his closest D-lineman friends returning to don the black and gold Vanderbilt will shockingly be competent in the trenches for the first time in a while. This is a bigger deal than it sounds; often mid-major teams have skill players on par with most major-conference teams, but it falls apart at the offensive and defensive lines. (Among other reasons, this made Utah’s win over Alabama especially remarkable – nobody expected Utah’s front seven to have their way with the vacated corpse of Andre Smith’s college career.) If Vanderbilt can hang with some of the middling teams in-conference, the lines will be the reason why. I don’t expect this line to do anything with the powerhouses in-conference – don’t expect miracles – but with improvement measured in baby steps, this is at least 4 or 5 baby steps.

Special teams should be solidly underwhelming. P Brett Upson is their best guy associated with this crew, and they’re breaking in a freshman at kicker in Ryan Fowler; of course, what that probably means is Upson gets to pull double duty after Fowler shanks a big kick. (Or at least as big as kicks get at Vanderbilt.) The return game will be a who-the-hell-knows affair, since nearly everyone who returned anything is gone save Jamie Graham. Still, since nobody really did anything of note last year it’ll probably be the same this time around.

So What’s Their Bowl Game?
I’m going to play it conservative and go with non-existent. As awkwardly awesome as Vanderbilt’s first-half run was last year, they’re still 2-6 over their last 8, which is very much within Commodore history and tradition. I don’t think this is a 3-9 outfit; far from it, I think this team is similar to last year’s, maybe even slightly better. The problem is last year’s team should’ve gone 5-7; I can’t see this year’s version doing better than that.

Tennessee Volunteers '09: Rebound?

The 2008 Season in a Box
Tennessee’s 2008 season wasn’t as much in a box as much as it was in a brown paper bag, lit on fire and then dropped on the school nerd’s doorstep. The offense was fittingly enough trapped in some kind of Byzantine cage, never even approaching what anyone rational would term “on-track”. The only offensive highlights were against hapless UAB before everyone realized the Clawfense was a horrible mistake and an emotional, end-of-season victory over Kentucky. The defense, thankfully, was much better and the unequivocal star of the show; of course, the defense didn’t have a choice, since they spent about 31:30 on the field per game.

After another completely inept offensive performance against South Carolina, Tennessee mainstay Phillip Fulmer stepped down – effective at the end of the season, of course. It didn’t really fix anything, but Tennessee was able to “rebound” to go 2-1 (and yes, it should’ve been 3-0), including notching yet another victory over Kentucky. And then things got weird. Lane Kiffin, the Recruiting Chimera, and the Parade of Secondary Violations showed up in Knoxville, and it’s been at least an interesting offseason.

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Well, other than the entirely new coaching staff and burgeoning running back stable, there’s not a whole lot of reason to think it’ll be different other than luck. At the margins, there were a few reasons to be excited; the Vols actually outgained their opponents for the season, but those of you that are smart know that came in fits and starts, helped in no small part by a quality effort against UAB and a decent showing against UCLA. Aside from those two games, the Vols’ offense didn’t top 315 yards in any game, and only topped 250 yards in three other games.

Even though most of the key personnel return, there are a few things to like. For one, while this will be a new offense yet again, it won’t take two years to institute it like Clawsen’s offense did. (Presumably the coaching staff has also realized Jonathan Crompton lacks the mental acuity to handle complex tasks and won’t roll the entire thing out at once.) Monte Kiffin coming to college to institute his defense should be a lot of fun to watch, and he’s got one heck of a NFL talent to build on. There’s also a special teams coach now, too. Really, at the end of the day there’s just too much talent at Tennessee to tank to the tune of 5-7 again; sure, 8-4 may be the peak, but the breaks can’t be as painful as they were last season.

On Offense
Well, Jonathan Crompton sure sucked last year; 51.5% with a 4/5 ratio won’t get a damn thing done and it doesn’t matter who you are. He’ll open the season as the starter again since there’s not a whole lot else there; Nick Stephens never really got integrated with the first-team offense until it was too late, then got injured during spring practice, and realistic challenger B.J. Coleman transferred. I’d be surprised if Crompton plays worse this season than he did last year, and if he can obtain separation from Stephens early with competent-to-quality play that’ll do a lot to assuage the doubts of Tennessee fans. If he struggles, the cries for Stephens will get louder. Either way, I’d expect about a 55-57% peak completion percentage from either of them; they simply haven’t given me reason to think otherwise. The TD/INT ratio should get better, and the god-awful yards per attempt (5.7 across the team last year) should improve, if not to anything around 8 YPA at least to the 7 range.

Of course, improved QB play won’t matter if there’s nobody to throw it to. This year will be Gerald Jones’ chance to shine; not only is he the leading receiver returning from last year’s corps (unutilized talent Lucas Taylor departs), but he’s the most explosive player. Of course, it won’t be that easy; expected 2nd and 3rd options Denarius Moore and Austin Rogers are both injured, Rogers for the entire season. When healthy, Moore will be expected to serve as deep threat; don’t expect him to average 25 yards per catch like he did last year, but 18+ may not be out of the question. They’ll need someone to show up as the possession WR-type, but Tennessee will have to develop a passing game that’ll stretch any kind of zone coverage. (That’s another post in itself.) Tight end won’t be a big passing concern; Luke Stocker is solid but unspectacular. The wild card with the passing game is Brandon Warren. Warren originally transferred from Florida State to be closer to his grandmother, had to sit out a season, spent last year mostly on the sideline, then moved to WR, then went through hell during spring practice. There’s no guarantee what his role will be this season, but he wasn’t a Freshman All-American for nothing; the kid is talented. So is incoming freshman Nu’Keese Richardson.

Regardless of how the passing game breaks down, the Volunteer offense will likely depend on the running game (and interception returns, but I’m getting ahead of myself). Of course, even that can’t go entirely according to plan; Arian Foster graduated and Lennon Creer – thought to be the heir apparent – transferred, leaving Montario Hardesty and a stable of true freshmen as the stars of the crop. Presumptive backup and depth man Tauren Poole is already injured, meaning both Bryce Brown and David Oku will have to step up and into the rotation. On aggregate, the running game should be improved; fumbles should be down a bit but not too much, but the total 122 ypg average the crew pulled last year should move up a notch. There are a bit too many variables to take a stab at distribution at this point in time, though.

Formation-wise, I’d expect some pro-style derivative. Most of the key offensive coaching personnel came from USC, so signs point to something like that. Their approach will probably be fairly conservative for this season, but remember that USC has made a living off of a quality QB and a stable of RBs; that’s where Kiffin and the crew are trying to pull Tennessee. It may just take them a few years.

On Defense and Special Teams
Really, the Volunteer defense ends with Eric Berry. Why’s it end with him? Because you have no shot in hell of getting past him, so don’t even try. Berry was studtastic last year, garnering a first-team All-American selection and getting screwed out of the Jim Thorpe Award. Calling him a star would be an understatement, to put it mildly.

As for the rest of the D, Rico McCoy and a fair amount of the secondary return, but there are going to be some new faces up front – Tennessee graduated half of its starters from last year, chief among them Broncos’ draftee Robert Ayers. Nick Reveiz is probably the quintessential new face; he’s the current starting MLB and gets mistaken for a kicker. Good times.

Don’t expect quite as statistically dominant a season this year as last year; that won’t happen for numerous reasons, not the least of which is simple luck regression. The defense will be quality and should do a decent job of forcing turnovers, especially in the secondary. (Not to mention Berry is probably worth 3 defensive TDs on his own.)

Monte must be so happy to get to college ball and get a guy like Berry to function in the John Lynch role in the Tampa-2. He’ll likely have to adapt it for the slightly slower college game, but it goes without saying that Monte does one heck of a job rolling out quality defensive units year after year. I also wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a learning curve in the first year or two – or if the Vols roll out a simplified Tampa-2.

Special teams …well, doesn’t look that special right now. Daniel Lincoln returns, but other than that there isn’t anything to call home over. Dennis Rogan is a talented return man who maybe just hasn’t gotten the blocking yet or something, because his return numbers haven’t matched up with his capabilities yet. Maybe a dedicated special teams coach will help.

So What’s Their Bowl Game?
Really, as much as I hate to say it, these guys are a Music City Bowl-quality team right now. There are simply too many questions to think otherwise; if things break right they could sneak into the Outback, but right now Tennessee is sitting squarely in the lower half of the SEC East. They’re certainly better than Vandy (and likely Kentucky, who profile like a quasi-Tennessee), but South Carolina walloped the Vols last year and likely will again. Maybe they sneak a major upset, but I think it’s more likely an early-season win against UCLA lets them sneak to 6 wins at the lower end and they pull off one against this year’s SEC top dogs – or medium dogs, as it were

And let’s not talk about the QB situation for next season.

All the lack of activity doesn't preclude a lack of action

So there was supposed to be some pretty big news we'd be posting right around this time, but that ...well, that didn't quite go according to plan. So we may or may not be in a holding pattern - truth be told, even I don't have an answer on that one yet and I'm half the decision-making body. Still, we'll figure it out and be sure to announce it here when we have something; it should be one heck of a deal and I'm excited about what's coming up.

In the meantime, just because there haven't been posts doesn't mean I haven't been writing. I had a whole host of posts that I wanted to publish but the prior paragraph got in the way, so in the meantime we'll have the most regular batch of content we've had here in ages. No sense in sitting on content.

Big 12 WR/TE Preview

In 2008, the Big 12 was known for its quarterbacks, but the wide receiver/tight end crop was equally deep. Some stars such as Michael Crabtree and Chase Coffman are gone, but the conference will still be strong at these positions in 2009.

Wide Receivers

1. Dez Bryant, OSU
In addition to hauling in 1480 yards and 19 TDs in 2008, Bryant chipped in as a punt returner, recording 305 yds ret and 2 TDs. He's on the outskirts of most Heisman lists, and should be your #1 WR pick from the Big 12.

2. Jordan Shipley, Texas
After a few seasons hampered by injury, Shipley finally had a chance to show Texas fans what they had heard since his recruitment - this guy is an elite college receiver. He produced nearly identical stats as Quan Cosby, but with Cosby gone in 2009 Shipley could easily catch 100 passes and further improve his yardage total. He also scored special teams touchdowns against Oklahoma and Texas Tech.

3. Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas
Briscoe had a great 2008 season, hauling in the next-most yards in the conference after Dez Bryant. I don't know if he will duplicate those numbers - that was a jump of nearly 1000 yards compared to 2007; I'd almost think something's gotta give. But regardless, he's easily in the preseason top 3 for the conference.

4. Detron Lewis, Texas Tech
It'd be criminal not to put a Tech receiver in the top five. Of TTU's three top receivers from 2008, Lewis is the only one returning. He's likely to be the #1 target in 2009, and therefore top 1000 yards.

5. Kerry Meier, Kansas
Meier completed the transition from backup QB beautifully, hauling in 1045 yards and 8 TDs in 2008. I don't see any real reason for improvement nor decline in 2009, short of problems with the new offensive line.

6. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma
Putting up just 687 yards in 2008, Broyles could be Sam Bradford's top outside target (ie, the guy he looks at after Gresham) in 2009 as he is the only one of OU's top four WRs returning.

7. Edward Britton, Texas Tech
Britton had three big games down the stretch - against Texas, Kansas, and Mississippi. For the last two seasons he's produced decent stats while Crabtree shined, now's his turn to join the first line of the Air Raid.

8. Kendall Wright, Baylor
If Griffin is going to have a huge season shredding defenses, and you'd better believe he is, he's going to need someone to throw to. Kendall Wright was his #1 target in 2009 -- bonus that (unlike Gettis), he hauled in some TDs as well.

9. Danario Alexander, Missouri
Alexander has produced minimally at Missouri thus far, but should easily earn one of the top two spots on the team. His size makes him more difficult to cover than Perry, which could affect who the pro-style recruit at QB targets first.

10. Jared Perry, Missouri
Perry's snagged 91 passes in his career at Mizzou despite being pretty far down on the depth chart. In 2009, he could be the primary receiver.

11. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
Tannehill pulled in 844 yds and 5 TDs on a struggling Aggie offense in 2008. He's competing for the starting QB position in 2009, but in the likely event that Jerrod Johnson wins out, Tannehill should put up similar numbers.

Other Receivers (in no particular order):

John Chiles, Texas - Athlete converting from QB to WR. We'll see how his hands hold up against game-level defenses, but his open-field abilities are already proven. I consider this a high risk-high reward pick.
Brandon Collins, Texas - Hauled in 13 passes in the final two games, and had a 6 rec outing against Missouri. No more than 2 rec in any other game, however, and right now it's looking like he's 4th on the depth chart.
Darius Darks, Iowa State - Darks had a strong season as a freshman, finishing second in receiving yards on the Cyclones. The top receiver (RJ Sumrall) graduated, so Darks has a good chance to shine here.
Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M - 630 rec, 9 TD in 2008. If you're not opposed to drafting Aggies on offense (in which case, why aren't you?) then you might look for him to duplicate this.
James Kirkendoll, Texas - Had 12 rec in his final three games (DNP against A&M), after recording just 9 in the first nine. The departure of Cosby will mean McCoy is looking his way far more often.
Tramain Swindall, Texas Tech - Hey! Texas Tech WR! Alright!
Adron Tennell, Oklahoma - Tennell was a big-time recruit but has contributed minimally in three seasons. He will likely be the #2 receiver on the depth chart in 2009.
Malcolm Williams, Texas - Nearly a third of his receiving yards in 2008 came on an awesome 91-yard bomb against Texas Tech, where he basically ran past the cornerback, then ran past the safety. I'm excited to see this speedster on the field more in 2009.

Notes:
* Four Texas receivers in the "Other Receivers" list is more indicative of the status of Texas' depth chart than anything else. Shipley is the sure #1 receiver. Whoever solidifies the position of #2, and perhaps #3, will have a good season, but there's no reason to believe Texas will produce five receivers of any meaningful fantasy value.

* Colorado, Kansas State, and Texas A&M should have poor passing offenses in 2009, and I would avoid WRs from their teams. Nebraska is more of a question mark - their projected starters are Menelik Holt and Niles Paul, but as both are first-year starters with little experience, also working with a QB who has thrown just a handful of passes in his college career, I cannot recommend either one unless you believe Nebraska's offense will be better than expected.


Tight Ends

1. Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
Gresham is essentially a gigantic wide receiver. A year ago, he put 950 yards and 14 TDs in the stat books. The departure of most of OU's receiving corps may hurt Bradford's stats, but it'll make sure that that many more passes are coming Gresham's way. He's good for 1000, a rare luxury in a TE.

2. Blaine Irby, Texas
I'm looking down the list of B12 TEs, and I cannot justify putting many of these other names second -- there is simply no player to compete with Gresham nor replace Coffman. Irby caught 10 passes for 95yd 2TD in 2008 despite playing just three games (injury), stats that would project out well over a full season. Texas threw the ball a lot to TEs in 2004-07, and with Cosby's absence felt by the offense I expect McCoy to look to the big guy over the middle once again.

3. Mike McNeill, Nebraska
McNeill just set a Nebraska school record for receiving yards by a tight end (442). With such talent, we could see the system modified to get him the ball a bit more often in 2009, as the Huskers are breaking in several new starting WRs.

4. Jamie McCoy, Texas A&M
McCoy had 500 rec yards in 2008 and should again be the #3 target of this passing game in 2009. Bonus that A&M QBs typically have a good enough arm to dump off to the TE/RB.

5. Jeron Mastrud, Kansas State
Mastrud has seen steady improvement by about 100 yards a season for his three years at KSU. The effect that Snyder's return will have on the system remains unknown, but Mastrud is one of the productive TEs returning to the conference.

6. Justin Akers, Baylor
Akers is a converted WR playing TE, which is always good for fantasy stats. Two years ago, he caught passes for 480 yards despite being on a pre-Cream Baylor offense. With Griffin requiring all 11 defenders to contain, Akers could have another solid season.

Big 12 RB Preview

We take things for granted in Big 12 country, but not every team in America has a 4000+ yard passer, and 65% completions isn't universally considered an off week. In many of these other conferences, they have such a lack of confidence in the quarterback's ability to find even one of his five receivers open, that they just give the ball to someone standing behind the line of scrimmage, and say "have at it!" Most fantasy leagues reflect this passing deficiency, and have several starting spots reserved for such "rushing-backs."

1. Kendall Hunter, OSU
Hunter is the #1 back on the #1 rushing offense in the Big 12. In 2008, he was the only back in the conference to average over 100 ypg on the ground (1555 yds, 16 TD rush) and with most of the key ingredients returning in 2009, he should minimally duplicate those numbers. I'd look for him to break 1700, as the loss of TE Brandon Pettigrew may force the offense to shift plays over to the ground game.

2. DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma
DeMarco Murry was on pace to lead the Sooners in rushing in 2008, were it not for missing the Big 12 Championship Game and the BCS Championship game, a player that was sorely missed in a close setback against the Florida Gators. While the two may produce similar ground totals, Murray caught passes for 395 yards and 4 TDs to Brown's 109 yards and 1 TD - his use as an outlet receiver make him the better fantasy pick.

3. Chris Brown, Oklahoma
Brown led the Sooners in rushing and in TDs scored in 2008. I only have him behind Murray as that is his spot on the depth chart - if Murray stays healthy, I expect slightly better numbers from him. However, Brown is the preferred back in goalline situations. Might be more valuable in leagues awarding bonus points for tasteless Rihanna jokes.

4. Roy Helu, Nebraska
Helu put up 803 yards despite starting 2008 in Marlon Lucky's shadow. Now Lucky's gone, and new QB Zac Lee has minimal experience. The Huskers should be looking to lean on their back with some experience while the offense gels.

5. Jay Finley, Baylor
People who doubt my bold calls for a Bears Breakout in 2009 may shy away from this one, at least for one or two more picks in the conference. But let's look at the facts: Finley rushed for just 207 yards and 3.8 ypc in 2007 before Hope arrived on campus, then exploded for 865 (5.8) and 7 TDs in 2008. He also caught a pair of sweet tosses to the end zone from The Creamster. Folks, Baylor is the storm nobody sees coming in 2009, not only are they going to finish with a winning record but they will produce a pair of 1000 yard rushers. By technicality, they cannot both be Griffin, so this in the next logical choice.

6. Jake Sharp, Kansas
Sharp quietly ran for 860 and 12 in 2008, and should be good for the same this season. If you have your doubts about The Epic Rise of the Bears, draft Sharp 5th.

7. Keith Toston, OSU
Toston largely played mop-up duty in 2008, gaining 686 yards on 6.7 ypc. Towards the end of the season, his ratio of carries relative to Hunter's were increasing, and I expect OSU to focus their offense even more around the ground attack in 2009. Toston might not reach 1000, but he should top 800.

8. Derrick Washington, Missouri
Washington was a 1000-yard rusher in 2008, but he's all that returns of the once-mighty Tigers' offense. He'll get his carries, as Missouri tries to protect sophomore Blaine Gabbert, who's moving up from third on the depth chart to starting QB. But defenses won't be scrambling like mad to cover Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman with Chase Daniel's precision passing, so expect the fronts to be a lot sturdier.

9. Darrell Scott, Colorado
Scott had a limited 2008 due to injury problems, and carried just 87 times. Nonetheless, the former #1 RB recruit is expected to be the starter in 2009 for an offense that can't do much other than run the ball.

10. Baron Batch, Texas Tech
Texas Tech had their best rushing year in... forever?... in 2008. Really, the air attack was so good, even for Tech's lofty standards, that teams had to sacrifice run support to contain Harrell's barrage. With a new QB, Michael Crabtree taking off for the NFL, and three new starters on the OL, look for Tech's ground game to falter a bit.

11. Alexander Robinson, Iowa State
Robinson was a 700 yard rusher in 2008, and with Arnaud returning at QB the offense will probably put up about the same numbers.

12. Vondrell McGee, Texas
I feel compelled to mention again that the Big 12 is not a running conference. McGee gained 376 yards in 2008, sharing the workload with now departed Chris Ogbonnaya. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, while McGee's carries should improve, the Texas offense will still be centered around Colt McCoy, and jumbo back Cody Johnson will still be the short yardage specialist. McGee may be looking at 500-700 yards rushing this season, but more would require a fundamental change to the offense like like Greg Davis deciding to limit McCoy's rushing attempts.

13. Cody Johnson, Texas
Johnson was one of four Texas RBs to gain between 250 and 400 yards in 2008, a sign of the offensive philosophy. (giving the ball to the RB is what we do when we not only want to mix things up by not passing, but want to trick the defense even more by not having McCoy run it) Johnson shouldn't put up big yards -- I think Foswhitt Whittaker is going to take over half of Ogbonnaya's carries, and the rest by McGee - but this is the goalline back, and he punched the ball in 12 times last season. In the scheme of things, Johnson scored 12 rush TD, McCoy 11, and all other Texas RBs combined for 10.

15. Rodney Stewart, Colorado
Stewart actually ran for 622 yards in 2008, although he was a non-factor in the non-existent passing game. However, the Buffs' leading back ran for just two TDs. That's because Colorado doesn't score touchdowns - they punt. The Buffs offense is in such disarray, this rushing total may well decrease, and in any case the team certainly isn't putting points on the board.

Things to note:

* Colorado has talent at the RB position and a creative coach who can design plays to open up the field... but star receiver Josh Smith is transferring, and with him go the Buffs' ability to stretch the field.

* Kansas State was a devastating option team under Bill Snyder up until his retirement. The trademark slate of FCS schools is back on the schedule; if you're feeling risky, gamble that the ground stats are back with it.

Fantasy Football - Big 12 QB Preview

The Big 12 was the conference of quarterbacks in 2008, combining talent at the position behind beefy offensive lines in a conference where some phenom receivers outclassed the skill in the secondary. To recap, Sam Bradford threw for 50 TDs and won the Heisman, Colt McCoy set an NCAA completion % record at 77%, Graham Harrell threw for over 5,000 yards, and Chase Daniel topped 4,500 - for the first few weeks having thrown more TDs than incompletions. The conference was documented as having the best passing season for a conference in the BCS era, beating out the 2002 Pac 10.

2008 Statistics, with returning players bolded:
Graham Harrell: 442/626, 71%, 5111 yds, 45 TD, 9 INT, -15 yds rush, 6 TD
Sam Bradford: 328/483, 68%, 4720 yds, 50 TD, 8 INT, 47 yds rush, 5 TD
Colt McCoy: 332/433, 77%, 3859 yds, 34 TD, 8 INT, 561 yds rush, 11 TD
Chase Daniel: 385/528, 73%, 4335 yds, 39 TD, 18 INT, 281 yds rush, 1 TD
Todd Reesing: 329/495, 67%, 3888 yds, 32 TD, 13 INT, 224 yds rush, 4 TD
Zac Robinson: 204/314, 65%, 3064 yds, 25 TD, 10 INT, 562 yds rush, 8 TD
Josh Freeman: 224/382, 59%, 2945 yds, 20 TD, 8 INT, 404 yds rush, 14 TD
Robert Griffin: 160/267, 56%, 2091 yds, 15 TD, 3 INT, 843 yds rush, 13 TD
Joe Ganz: 285/420, 68%, 3568 yds, 25 TD, 11 INT, 258 yds rush, 5 TD
Austen Arnaud: 247/401, 62%, 2792 yds, 15 TD, 10 INT, 401 yds rush, 5 TD
Jerrod Johnson: 194/326, 60%, 2435 yds, 21 TD, 10 INT, 114 yds rush, 3 TD
Cody Hawkins: 183/320, 57%, 1892 yds, 17 TD, 10 INT, -23 yds rush, 3 TD

2009 will not be a duplication of those conference-wide numbers. However, there will be about a half-dozen really potent offenses in the conference, led by QBs that will be putting up strong fantasy values.

1. Colt McCoy, Texas
Sure, I'm a homer. But Texas returns every major receiver except for Quan Cosby - importantly, including Jordan Shipley (there was some concern about this after the Fiesta Bowl). Athlete/backup QB John Chiles has decided he's tired of waiting in McCoy's shadow, and converted to WR during the offseason. He will be a real playmaker in the open field assuming his hands make him a viable target. Williams and Kirkendoll became more involved in the offense later in the season and are back as well. Up front, the Horns return 4 starters on the offensive line - the lone new starter is Michael Huey, a junior right guard who was a top 10 prospect at that position. The pieces are all there - Texas will have a stronger offense in 2009 if McCoy even stays at the same level he was at in 2008.

Texas also has an embarassingly easy nonconference schedule for a title contender (ULM, Wyoming, UTEP, UCF) while Oklahoma faces BYU, Idaho State, Tulsa, and Miami FL - in all, Oklahoma has Steele's #3-toughest schedule in the country while Texas is just #40. With the easier schedule and with more starters returning, McCoy should have the better season of two great choices at QB.

2. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
I think a lot of people will argue Bradford is the #1 B12 QB pick. However, Oklahoma is returning just five starters on offense. Every player on the offensive line is new save for Trent Williams at LT. Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson are both gone, as is Quentin Chaney the #4WR. That is just shy of 2400 receiving yards between the three of them. Now, super tight end Jermaine Gresham is returning, and Adron Tennell was a big recruit who will now get the chance to step up as a senior. But I'm expecting Oklahoma to go a little more back to the running game this year as they are returning two 1000-yard rushers. A more balanced attack may be good for the Sooners, but that and the loss of so many WR/OL will probably see Bradford's numbers drop in 2009. Not that he won't be a strong pick regardless. Bradford has a monster arm and Gresham is a coverage nightmare.

3. Taylor Potts, Texas Tech
(ie, generic Tech QB)
In his final two years at Tech, Graham Harrell threw for over 5000 yards both seasons. Michael Crabtree is gone and that will be a huge, huge loss. In fact just four starters are returning on this offense, including two on the offensive line. In the two seasons before the Harrell/Crabtree duo started terrorizing defenses, Texas Tech threw for about 380 ypg. In something I'd only do for Texas Tech, I'm just going to assume that Potts can throw for at least 350 ypg, plug that in and get 4200 yards for the season. In fact, 350 is probably conservative for Leach's offense. Syyyssssstemmmm.

4. Robert Griffin, Baylor
You'll want to check out your fantasy scoring if he and Robinson are still on the board. How much rushing counts compared to passing, and possibly rush TDs vs pass TDs, could sway this one. To me, this comes down to Griffin being a sophomore (biggest season for improvement) and Baylor returning 8 offensive starters. Losing the #3WR (Thomas White) isn't a big deal, but Griffin may miss LT Jason Smith, who went second in the NFL Draft. Fortunately he is a fast, mobile QB (All-American Baylor track team, specializing in hurdles) so that will be somewhat negated. You will also note that Griffin does not turn the ball over. He only completed 56% of his passes because of drops, this guy is dead-accurate. If the receiving corps has improved at all, this should go up to 65%.

5. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State
OSU is returning seven offensive starters, but TE Brandon Pettigrew will be sorely missed. He was one of just two players to catch over 22 passes, the other being darkhorse Heisman candidate Dez Bryant. Keith Toston was kinda discovered in midseason, so OSU may run the ball a little more aggressively this year with that plus the losses to the receiving corps. Robinson's numbers could go either way, as he's more experienced and his two most talented offensive teammates are returning, which could offset some of the losses as well as the upgrade from Troy to Georgia in the nonconference schedule.

6. Todd Reesing, Kansas
Kansas returns seven offensive starters, but just two on the line and will be starting a pair of redshirt freshmen there. This will be a case of high experience at the skill positions versus low experience in protection, as even the tight end is new. I'm also concerned about the loss of three 90+ tacklers weakening the defense enough to cost this offense some time of possession, as the entire linebacker corps is being replaced and those were the defensive leaders in 2008 - a season in which KU already gave up 80 ypg more than in 2007. Reesing had 400 yards more in 2008 than 2007, perhaps due in part to Meier fully switching over from QB to WR, but at the cost of another 6 INT and 1 fewer TD. With the new line I don't see an improvement in offensive production - the question is will it even be as good?

7. Austen Arnaud, Iowa State
This is the official borderline of acceptable Big 12 QBs to draft. Iowa State is horrible, but like the Baylor situation, that doesn't rule out one QB to account for most of their offense and be a decent fantasy pick. ISU returns 9 offensive starters. Arnaud had over 3000 total yards last year and should be able to duplicate that. The Cyclones avoid both Texas and Oklahoma. I'm not really recommending Arnaud, so much as saying watch out for the train wrecks below...

8. Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M
Johnson plays for Texas A&M. TAMU is terrible. They're going to duplicate the failures of 2008, and offense is a big reason why (along with defense, God's hatred of Aggies, etc). 10 offensive starters return, but at some point that means more of the same. TAMU also faces Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State - three teams that will keep the ball away with their offenses and play solid defense.

9. Zac Lee, Nebraska
Is Zac Lee the #9 QB in the Big 12? I have no idea. I'd be shocked if he's in the top 6, and anything beyond that is largely speculation. Joe Ganz had a reasonably strong season here last year, and some of the starters return - notably, not the top two receivers or the #2 rusher.But hey, three starters on the line, including C and LT. Ehh....

10. Cody Hawkins, Colorado
Hawkins was terrible in 2008. He was decent but inconsistent in 2007. Contrary to what some magazines say, Josh Smith has left, so receivers #2-4 are all gone. Darrell Scott and Rodney Stewart return at RB, so maybe the spread option has some hope. Ehh...

11. Daniel Thomas / Whoever Starts at Kansas State
Bill Snyder has returned, and with him a nonconference schedule including two FCS schools. Brandon Banks was a 1000 yard receiver in 2008, so at least he has someone to throw to...

12. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
... as opposed to Gabbert, who will watch the Missouri offense flounder without Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, and Tommy Saunders. Chase Daniel's backup, Chase Patton, also graduated - this guy wasn't even getting clean-up time last year. On top of all that, OC Dave Christensen took the HC job at Wyoming. Missouri is going to complete the fall from a team who should have been in the BCS to mid-level ranked to complete fail, all in consecutive seasons. For what it's worth, Gabbert was actually a top 10 QB prospect, but the Tigers have just lost so much there can't not be a rebuilding year.

Nats Junk Randy St. Claire, Entire Rotation

So in the annals of "shit only I care about", the Nats fired pitching coach Randy St. Claire today. I'm not terribly surprised - the rotation has been god-awful, so someone was going to be the fall guy - I'd be lying if I said this makes any sense to me. I'm pretty sure Lookout Landing nailed it with their post - what the hell was he going to do with a shit sandwich. (I say "pretty sure" because for some reason I can't figure out if he's being sarcastic or not.)

Seriously, what the hell do you want your pitching coach to do when the GM basically decides in 2007 "screw it, we're going all replacement-level pitchers and it's open season for anyone to try out in Spring Training"? How does he react when the two most talented starters he's coached - John Patterson and Shawn Hill - can't throw their best pitch without getting injured? How about when both guys are just released at the end of Spring Training? How does he prevent injuries to a bullpen where most guys are getting 60+ appearances a season? How does the pitching coach have anything to do with a .321 BABIP and the outfielders resemble a Vaudeville act every other night? What about a 65% strand rate?

I mean, maybe St. Claire sucked. But canning him during this season from hell is a bit of a waste of time. There are far more problems with this team than their ability to throw a decent changeup. Rob Dibble apparently wasted no time ensuring that he ran the truck over St. Claire while he still had shit in the office. On the other hand, I think St. Claire might've quit anyway:

"The pitching isn't performing up to where it needs to be to win, and I think a lot of factors go into it, but I guess I'm easier to replace than 12 guys," [Randy St. Claire] said. "Easier to replace and cheaper to replace. But that's the game. When the team doesn't perform, they're bound to make changes."

At least everyone ended up pissed off. Bet it won't matter, though.

I Need to Start Writing About the Nats Again

Let's be honest; this place has been pretty dead lately. Writing about the inglorious trainwreck that is the Washington Nati(o)nals would at least pass the time. To some extent, I could just start writing about the Nats again on here and I don't think anyone would really notice. (Well, at least not until August. Or whenever James and I finally get around to unveiling the multiple ideas we have for blog - yes, we have IDEAS. We'll see if anything actually comes of them.) Still, I don't think that would really do them justice.

Here's what it comes down to - I'm a bit arrogant about my writing. I have the ability to be a pretty decent writer when I put my mind to it. Admittedly, that doesn't happen as much as I'd like it to, and lord knows that I've been prone to mail it in on some occasions. (Check the weekly ACC posts from last year for that, although I'm not going to lie - the profanity-riddled awesomeness of writing those posts was fun, even if the post's readability resembled that of a Fanhouse commentator) In a vacuum, this doesn't mean anything, but I feel the background's needed for a couple of reasons. The first reason is writing about the Nats gives me a relevant topic during the college football offseason. The second - and this is the big one - is that there are some terrible writers out there writing about the Nats.

I'd say that the two most prominent writers associated with the Nats' blogosphere (the wilted flower that it is) both have this problem. At this point, I'm convinced that one of them has a broken caps lock key; it's the only explanation for his random capitalization of words that either don't deserve capitalization or don't deserve emphasis. The other ...well, the other found these two magic formatting functions called bold and italic, but he has no idea how they work, so he just kind of uses them on their own. It's jarring, and quite frankly that site is unreadable (he also does the random ellipses thing, which I find more annoying than most - we're not all 15 anymore, guys. You're writing on the 'net, you don't have to make it sound like you're trailing off). Also, it looks like he's picked up random quotation marks, making him have something in common with Finger Quotin' Margo. Obviously those aren't the only two guys; there are more than a few out there, but since Needham folded up shop and is now freelancing for NBC Washington on the side and MissC went into her current role there's been a dearth of decent content. (NFA Brian is still out there doing his thing, which is quality but I'm not sure I'd classify it as following the Nats in the sense I mean.)

What this means to me is there's a void of quality writers covering the Nats. In theory it wouldn't be hard to ascend the ranks of Nats bloggers, although there's still the sticky issue of generating content and getting people here. (Obviously those are both issues I haven't figured out how to get around yet, although this site has directly and indirectly led to a couple of writing gigs for the staff here, so that's a plus.)

There's also a second, bigger issue: this team is terrible. God-awful. Announcers openly speculating about the #1 pick being on the big-league team in July terrible. 3 games up on the race for the #1 overall pick in 2010 already bad. 11.5 back of first place already (and 6 games back of 4th) and the only ML team under .350 bad. They're the worst-fielding team in MLB according to UZR and RZR. If you prefer traditional metrics, they have the worst ERA in the majors as well. The offense hasn't been bad, but half the power bats are in the lineup at the expense of the defense - Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Ronnie Belliard, and to a lesser extent Elijah Dukes and Willie Harris (CF versions only) have all been god-awful in the field. Functionally, there's not a lot you can do when you're handcuffed that badly on defense - and if the Nats didn't know that Dunn and Willingham were both butchers they did a worse job scouting than even I can imagine. I haven't even begun to bitch about the relievers, who make the defense seem palpable. No lead is safe puts it mildly.

So we'll see if I'm compelled to write about the Nats; my instinct says no. It's bad enough to see a terrible team blow game after game, but it's another matter entirely to have to write about it day after day (or week after week). I started writing this post a few days ago; since then, they haven't won a game. At this point, it's morbid curiosity to see if they can challenge the elusive 41-win mark. Maybe I'll follow it.

Rebuild or Reload?

Porn in college football statistics form has picked up its pre-season pace, and two interesting statistics were released this week: percent of yardage returning on offense and percent of tackles returning on defense.

Of course, this neglects any changes to the offensive line, in a way double-counts passing yardage, and neglects turnovers recovered by the defense. But nobody's claiming this is a great predictor of success. (at the top of one list, UCF returns 100% of their offensive yardage - from an offense that ranked 7th-worst in scoring last season) What it may be useful for is identifying teams who should be able to build upon what they accomplished last season - returning 11 starters means that units should be no weaker than it was a season ago... versus those who might have to play a bit of catch-up to get back to the same level - say, losing your starting QB and top two RBs.

Medians were around 71% returning yardage, 66% returning tackles.

Of our likely BCS contenders:
Alabama: 42% yardage, 85% tackles
Florida: 76% yardage, 99% tackles
Mississippi: 89% yardage, 66% tackles
Ohio State: 50% yardage, 58% tackles
Oklahoma: 80% yardage, 80% tackles
Oklahoma State: 89% yardage, 68% tackles
Penn State: 69% yardage, 56% tackles
Texas: 80% yardage, 76% tackles
USC: 55% yardage, 46% tackles

... I'm actually not going to talk about the ACC/Big East, since it looks like 8-4 might be good enough to land a BCS bid there. Oh, and lest I forget:
Baylor: 88% yardage, 81% tackles. Cream, bitches. Shitty December bowl.

Florida is a whole 8% above the next-highest school in returning tackles, and 14% ahead of the next-highest school that actually had a competent defense last season (Alabama). UF had a defense ranked around 4th last season... all 11 starters and most of the backups are back again in 2009. This should be a fearsome unit.

Oklahoma State and Mississippi are in the similar situations of being sleeper teams, arguably the third-best in their conferences - conferences that both got at-large bids last season and are likely to produce two BCS teams again. Both return essentially all of their offensive production, while both just barely return an above-average amount of tackles.

More interesting are the four teams that have definite concerns.

Alabama, while their defense should be on a similar level as last season, is 99th nationally in returning offense. I'm not sure that losing John Wilson is much of a loss, aside from his ability to manage a game - which I expect any Nick Saban quarterback to be able to do. (Watching 10 hours of game film a day does that. Free time's for pussies.) Losing Glen Coffee and Andre Smith will be tougher to deal with. Overall, I expect this offense to be about the same as last year.

Penn State will be hurting the most of the four. While Darryll Clark and Evan Royster return, PSU loses their entire receiving corps, including Derrick Williams who also scored 3 TDs on special teams. The defense is in shambles with the entire secondary gone as well as two NFL draft picks at DE. Penn State has an extremely easy nonconference schedule, they face Ohio State at home, and if you believe this team will be good - they also face Iowa at home. I wouldn't rule out a BCS season for those reasons. But this team will not be the same quality it was in 2008, and we saw what that got them in the Rose Bowl.

Our last two teams are Ohio State and USC, near-perennial BCS representatives who have dominated their conferences - USC in particular. This game was surprisingly lopsided last season, as USC showcased not only higher skill, but a complete dominance of the game planning and adjusting. Buckeye fans are licking their chops at the opportunity to see Terelle Pryor take on a USC defense that will be losing 9 starters. But what of their own team?

Ohio State loses experienced QB Todd Boeckman, although he is replaced by a more gifted athlete in Terrelle Pryor. While this will be mostly positive, I'm not sure that the Buckeyes won't miss his experience at some point, as it still remains true that every BCS champion has featured a Jr or Sr starting QB. More concerning are the losses of Beanie Wells, Maurice Wells, Hartline, Robiskie, and Rory Nicol. That's just the lost production. Boone, Rehring, and Person will be gone from the line. This offense should have one heck of a learning curve, but against many opponents Pryor's legs may be able to bail them out. Then there's the defense. The LB corps is depleted with the losses of Laurinaitis and Freeman. Thorpe winner Malcolm Jenkins and Nate Washington are gone from the secondary. Nader Abdallah leaves a big hole to fill up front. Let me be clear that, were it not for Terrelle Pryor, I'd expect this team to drop. With Pryor, who knows - OSU is helped by the fact that their closest Big Ten rival is in a similar predicament and they face USC after just one game with a completely new Trojan defense. But I'm highly skeptical of a perfect season.

Three seasons ago, USC lost Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and LenDale White but still won 11 games and would have faced _Buckeye_ for a national championship were it not for a bizarre loss to rival UCLA. That is the kind of quality recruiting that goes on at this program. For example, Aaron Corp should be an upgrade from Mark Sanchez at QB - mobile enough to evade and improvise even if his skills/their system won't have him producing much as far as rushing totals. Patrick Turner and Vidal Hazelton were never dominant receivers the way Mike Williams and Dwayne Jarrett were, and USC has plenty of depth that can step in and maintain that level. The entire RB corps (Joe McKnight baby!) and offensive line return. Suddenly, that 55% returning yardage sounds more like 95%. Defense is another story. In 2008, USC fielded a defense that was easily the program's best of the BCS era. Pete Carroll has got one hell of a pipeline going, but there is no reason to believe a second Rey Maualuga is waiting in the wings - not this season anyway. Six of the front seven that made this defense go have graduated or left, along with both starting corners. The lone bright side is the return of Taylor Mays, probably one of the top two safeties in the country. I don't know what the statistics will bear out, since the Washingtons may still not be good enough to qualify for the FCS tournament, but the defense is hurting for experience if not talent, and I do not expect it to be a top 10 unit. Their truest tests will come against teams fielding mobile QBs, where lane discipline and containment become more important.

Random CFB Musings (01) - Because September is Just Around the Corner

With Steele's College Football Preview set to hit stores June 9th (you may now Jizz. In. Your Pants.), it's officially time to start the four-month tailgate that is preseason blogging. It's the second-longest pre-kickoff tailgate nationally, bested only by the one that started in Baton Rouge last January.

First, a harrowing personal story: This past April, I moved from the beautiful suburbs of Denver into the heart of Washington, DC. Nothing against life in our nation's capital; contrarily, it's quite pleasant once you learn to block out the sirens that blare 24/7. (As a side note, last night I watched the local news for the first time since moving here. Top stories: murder, murder, gang warfare, sexual assault, child assault, murder, Disney to open new park in National Harbor, murder.) There's that, the sky-high cost of living, and the oppressive summer humidity, but the rest is gravy. Bonus for functional public transportation.

No, the problem is that I've moved into ACC country. The three places I'd lived before this were Plano, TX - the SWC/Big 12 including the last decade of the Nebraska glory years, then Oxford, OH - Ben Roethlisberger's years at Miami U and Ohio State's national championship team, then Boulder/Denver, CO - more Big 12, this time with a dash of Pac 10. The hidden gem was all the Mountain West coverage. Back to the present situation - the ACC is 2-9 in BCS Bowls, with their only win in the last nine trips being last season's *thrilling* Va Tech/Cincy Orange Bowl. That's right, they're 2-9 despite being matched up against the depleted Big East. I figure to get my share of Ohio State, USC, and the SEC... but the odds of seeing much Big 12 action or for that matter whatever Pac 10 team rises up just enough to pretend to challenge the Trojans' 35 consecutive conference titles (Quack On, Oregon) are surely slim. Instead, I'll be watching the Awkward Terrapins square off against the Cavalcade of Fail. Surely this warrants an fml. Keep this in mind if fall's postings take on a bitter tone.

NEWS!

The GMAC Mobile Bowl has decided to match the MAC champions against the #9 seed from the ACC. If that doesn't strike you as odd, what it means is that 75% of the teams in the conference would have to win 50% of their games. Last season, 10 ACC teams were bowl eligible because nobody managed to go better than 5-3 in conference, so as a result only one team was worse than 3-5. This means that teams like NC State can go 2-2 out of conference, or that Maryland can drop that game to Middle Tennessee State, and still be bowl eligible. Indeed, if Virginia hadn't been the only team in the conference to lose to Dook, there would have been 11 teams floundering around on national television after November (13 if we double-count the two in the conference championship game). By actually giving an automatic invite to the #9 seed, the Mobile Bowl is saying they expect the status quo - where all teams are equally bad - to remain firmly intact. fml.

Obama tore into Notre Dame football in a speech in Indianapolis. Previously, Obama has said that if he could change one thing in all of sports, it would be to give college football a playoff. He's done a March Madness bracket and created a fantasy football team with some high-profile writer. The guy's a real sports fan. (Not to be confused with a true fackin sparts fan.)

College basketball mega-phenom Greg Paulus is enrolling at Syracuse for grad school and plans to play quarterback. My only comment here is that he'll probably be more successful at a position where he doesn't have to play defense. Also it's tough to see Syracuse getting much worse, particularly those 121.5 passing yards per game which ranked 7th-worst nationally, so hey. The bottom six were the three service academies (option offense), Georgia Tech (option offense), UCF (.333 midmajor), and Wyoming (barely beat Tennessee).

Preseason polls are out. Lots of em. The consensus is Florida followed by Texas. (hey, it's what should have been the BCS Championship game!) Three Big 12 teams in the top 6, four SEC teams in the top 10. A 9-spot gap between USC and their closest conference contender, Ohio State and Penn State dwarfing the nine... dwarfs... in the Big Eleven. So the prognosis is a repeat of 2008?