The NL Injured and Ineffective Report for May

First off, now that summer's hit (and classes haven't), expect more than just two updates a week. I'm going to try and do two weeks of daily updates - we'll see how well that goes. As of now, I've written the updates for most of this week; again, one of the things I do is write updates by hand first (partially so it lets me arrange my thoughts, partially because I don't have a laptop and one of my jobs gives me a TON of downtime, so I can do things like that).

So this format is kind of obvious, I think; we're going by division and team, highlighting the injured and ineffective players on each team. Note that we're talking about the egregiously ineffective players - the 25th man, etc., don't really count. Not too much. ;)

NL EAST

Atlanta Braves
INJURED: Kelly Johnson, Kyle Davies
Johnson is just now beginning his rehab assignment in the low minors. Look for him to return to the majors in a couple of weeks - an early June target date seems likely. As for Davies, he just went on the 15-day DL (even though the depth chart says 60-day DL; we're going with the "out 6 weeks" option). Look for an early July return date.

Other notable injuries include Horacio Ramirez (still out with a hamstring pull) and Mike Hampton (still out for the year).

INEFFECTIVE: Jorge Sosa
Thanks to injuries and general ineptitude, Jorse Sosa has backed into the third spot in the rotation. He's responded beautifully with a 1-5 record and 5.55 ERA. Way to support the team, Jorge.

Florida Marlins
INJURED: Jeremy Hermida, Sergio Mitre
Hermida should be back any day now; heck, he should've been back this weekend. However, that's not the case, obviously, as he's still hanging out on the DL. It'll help the offense if he actually performs up to potential - and not the .250 he had put up before getting injured. Mitre strained his shoulder in his last start, landing him on the DL. The Marlins need his arm back in the rotation as soon as possible.

INEFFECTIVE: the whole damn bullpen
Seriously - if you've blown 4 leads in 5 days, that's not a good sign. Especially when your team is going to struggle to win already. Getting Carlos Martinez and Franklyn German back should help marginally.

New York Mets
INJURED: Victor Zambrano, Brian Bannister
Shhhh - don't mention the K-guy around Mets fans right now. Zambrano's out for the year. Bannister should be back soon - again, the Mets have almost been forced to bust out Lima Tima this year (have once already), so getting a dependable arm at the back end of the rotation is their highest priority right now. They've adopted the "throw shit against the wall" strategy back there right now.

INEFFECTIVE: Cliff Floyd
Floyd has yet to either 1) get hot or 2) get injured. That sort of streakiness won't last.

Philadelphia Phillies
INJURED: Mike Lieberthal, Aaron Rowand
Lieberthal's been down for a couple of weeks; he was eligible to be activated from the DL as of yesterday, but don't expect him back for another week at least. As for Rowand, he met the wall the hard way about 10 days ago. That'll probably be another couple of weeks.

INEFFECTIVE: Ryan Madson, Gavin Floyd
Well, if it isn't pitching injuries, it's shitty pitching, right? Floyd has been the better of the two, checking in with a skinny 5.71 ERA. Madson? 6.95 ERA. At least he's in the bullpen now, making room for Hot Shit Du Jour Cole Hamels. More on him later on this week!

Washington Nationals
INJURED: most of the pitching staff, Brian Schneider, and a partridge in a pear tree
It's always a good sign when 4/5 of your potential rotation is on the DL, right? Not to mention your starting catcher. Guzman? Eh. He can stay.

INEFFECTIVE: Livan Hernandez, Felix Rodriguez, Joey Eischen
...and your other starter is throwing BP. Plus two of your guys in the 'pen are walking gascans. No wonder this team sucks.

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs
INJURED: Derrek Lee, Mark Prior
Pour a 40 out for Kerry Wood - he's healthy! Won't last. Prior should be ready to go soon, and should go back to the DL shortly afterward. As for Lee, well, he was the Cubs' offensive lynchpin. I actually feel bad for them because of him being on the DL. Really. Look for Wade Miller to be back late in the year, by the way.

INEFFECTIVE: Juan Pierre and a couple of "no shit" guys
Pierre should turn it around; I wouldn't expect a .235 average to last, as that's way below his historical average and - quite frankly - he's too good for that. As for Rusch and Neifi!, uh ... yeah, no shit, guys.

Cincinnati Reds
INJURED: Ken Griffey, Jr., Austin Kearns
lol j/k
Cody Ross actually is injured, but he's the Reds' third catcher. Whatever.

INEFFECTIVE: Nobody?
I mean, David Weathers hasn't been great, but Coffey has, so damage minimalized. No wonder they've done well so far this year - helps when your pitching is good. Minus Eric Milton, of course. He's permanently on the ineffective list.

Houston Astros
INJURED: Chris Burke, Brandon Backe
Burke should be back quite soon, which gives the Astros ample opportunity to not play him. (Sorry, bitter.) Backe hasn't had much of an opportunity to perform so far this year; he went down with an UCL injury and probably has a couple of weeks minimum before he can return. Don't expect him 'til mid-June, I'd say.

INEFFECTIVE: Jason Lane
Preston Wilson (.247) comes close, but he's streaky. Jason Lane, however, is currently rocking a .209 average. Bonus! Dig those 9 HR, though - plus 3 doubles and 17 singles. In 139 AB. At least he's slugging .424, and his ISO (isolated power) is high as hell.

Milwaukee Brewers
INJURED: J. J. Hardy, Ben Sheets (duh), Tomo Ohka
Hardy is a recent addition to the disabled list; he wasn't doing great (.242) before he got injured, so maybe 3-4 weeks recovery will help. Ohka has been on the DL for a while, which hopefully for the Brewers means a return soon. As for Sheets, hell, who knows? He's approaching Prior/Wood DL territory between this year and last. Sucks, too.

INEFFECTIVE: Doug Davis
Not helping the Brewers' case is the guy who evidently thinks home is second (39 BB, 36 K). Feel the excitement!

Pittsburgh Pirates
INJURED: Sean Casey, Joe Randa
Now, if you're any other team with no shot, injured vets mean let the kids play. If you're the Pirates, that means Craig Wilson and Freddy Sanchez. Oops. At least Wilson has been rocking it - so he'll be back on the bench as soon as Casey returns. Viva la future! (disclaimer: have never taken French) Oh yeah - Kip Wells, too. Whoohoo.

INEFFECTIVE: Oliver Perez, Zach Duke
Or if you're the Pirates, you also call these guys your 1-2 punch. Uh.... uh-oh. Okay, so Duke hasn't been that bad. It's funnier if I include him, though - if it's just Ollie Pee, then he feels all singled out, and I don't want to make anyone feel bad here. (WARNING WARNING: ERA approaching Limian stage - 6.98 for Oliver Perez)

St. Louis Cardinals
INJURED: Sir Meatball
One would argue this is a good thing, as it lets young gun Anthony Reyes get some major league experience. I, however, will make the requisite "strained esophagus" joke and let it lie. He'll be back in a few weeks.

INEFFECTIVE: the outfield offense(ive)
Edmonds gets a minor free pass here, as he's at least hit with guys on. The other outfielders? Not so much. No rest for the weary (or in this case, sucky)!

NL WEST

Arizona Diamondbacks
INJURED: Russ Ortiz
Hm. Ortiz's injury lets young gun Juan Cruz into the rotation. Wonder if the D-Backs won't mind if the 'ol 6.91 ERA (Lima alert!) takes his time getting back. Of course, Cruz is inconsistent, so maybe they want a consistent (losing) pitcher in the rotation.

INEFFECTIVE: Tony Clark, Orlando Hudson
Hudson's doing his best Rey Ordonez impersonation at second. As for Clark, he was surprisingly good last year - maybe this is his season-long regression to the mean. Or just not too good in platoon duty (on the short end of the stick). Oh, and Shawn Green (warning: NSFW) - well, he is hitting .327, but dig those 3 HR.

Colorado Rockies
INJURED: Yorvit Torrealba and a bunch of guys you don't care about
Well, you probably don't care about ol' Yorvit either. Fair enough.

INEFFECTIVE: Todd Helton
Blame it on whatever he had earlier. I don't know what on earth he had, but even though he says he's healthy, something's obviously wrong. If he can get it going, the Rockies will sorely need his bat to stay near the top of the division. And they need more than just a largely empty .292 average, especially since he normally hits about 30 points higher than that at least.

Los Angeles Dodgers
INJURED: Eric Gagne (le sigh), and a bunch of guys I don't want to type out
Seriously - 8 guys on the DL already? Go Dodgers! Obviously, Gagne is the most needed out of all of them, although some outfield depth couldn't hurt. No clue on timetables here, sorry. I'm on a deadline. Navarro is the least important, as Martin has done well in his absence.

INEFFECTIVE: Jae Seo
Expected to be a sleeper-good candidate, has just slept through the season so far. At least Aaron Sele is around to "push" him.

San Diego Padres
INJURED: Ryan Klesko
2006 charter member of the All-Wally Pipp Team.

INEFFECTIVE: Nobody?
Haven't been paying enough attention - although a Vinny Castilla sighting is enough to make me wonder. It's not like you expect much out of him - just not being Sean Burroughs is enough.

San Francisco Giants
INJURED: Moises Alou, Lance Niekro
Alou should be back to his usual ways soon (make your own joke, I've already made one shit joke today). Honestly, the Giants could use him as protection from Barry Bonds. As for Niekro, he just went on the DL - even though he's been out for a week already. Oh well. Sore shoulder, no timetable, whatever, the usual.

INEFFECTIVE: ESPN's poster boy
Seriously, you can read about him somewhere else. Not that I don't like you guys... but yeah, there's been enough already. Oh, and Pedro Feliz isn't too good (who?).

Late Series Capsules: 5/19/06-5/21/06

Hey hey, let's hear it for being late! Multiple updates are hopefully coming this weekend. We'll see how well that actually works, though.

It's an interleague weekend, so 14 series are between leagues. The remaining series? Made the top 5. What didn't? Well, Cubs @ Sox. Yup. Sorry, kids - too much of a team disparity. Some clunkers out there, too - Pittsburgh/Cleveland, Baltimore/Washington, and Florida/Tampa Bay (toilet bowl of the weekend - at least it's indoors).

#5: Atlanta Braves (21-20, W4, 8-2) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (22-18, L1, 5-5)
Pitching Matchups:
5/19: Thomson vs Vargas
5/20: Smith vs Batista
5/21: Hudson vs Webb

For the Braves:
Well, it finally happened - they got hot, and in a big way. They're the second-hottest team in the majors (behind Detroit) at the moment, and there's no reason why they should slow down here. Travis Smith gets his first start of the season on Saturday, and that's their worst chance to win. With their pitching, Francouer finally waking up, and the stadium, they should walk out of here with 2 out of 3. If not? Well, they should be .500 at worst. Hudson's been hot, too.

For the Diamondbacks:
While they're not on a roll, they need this series. The NL West has everyone within 2 games of first at the moment, and with the exception of Colorado, they have the toughest opponent. Will they win this? It's possible, but Claudio Vargas needs to have a good start tonight, as does Miguel Batista on Saturday.

They should win Saturday's game, which means they have to win one of the two pitching crapshoots. It could happen.

#4: Toronto Blue Jays (23-17, W2, 7-3) @ Colorado Rockies (22-19, L1, 4-6)
Pitching Matchups:
5/19: Towers vs Cook
5/20: Taubenheim vs Francis
5/21: Lilly vs Fogg

For the Blue Jays:
Uh, this is a rivalry game. I guess. When in Rome? Anyway, this is the Blue Jays' first - and only - look at Coors this season. They're currently blistering the ball to a team .299(!) clip. That makes their suboptimal pitching worthwhile.

What can they expect? They'll rough up Fogg, more than likely, giving them a good shot at winning Sunday. Cook's been tough lately, Francis is better at home than on the road ... who knows? A series win isn't unlikely, but might be more difficult than originally thought. They do have the easiest matchup of the top 3 AL East teams, though.

For the Rockies:
Tough draw. They hold - amazingly - a pitching advantage. Unfortunately, they haven't hit well at home. Go on the road for this series and they'd probably win it convincingly, but at home? Maybe not. Bet you never thought you'd read that.

Can they win it, though? Sure. Cook and Francis will keep them in the early games, and they should win Saturday's for sure. (This is the first time I've even heard of the Blue Jays' pitcher.) That gives them the pitching advantage tonight and the possibility of a Coors crapshoot on Sunday. They might sweep, which they'll need.

#3: New York Yankees (23-16, L1, 5-5) @ New York Mets (24-16, L2, 3-7)
Pitching Matchups:
5/19: Johnson vs Gonzalez
5/20: Mussina vs Martinez
5/21: Chacon vs Glavine

For the Yankees:
Another week, another marquee series. Surprise, surprise. They've got their big guns going this time, too.

Only problem is their offense is banged up - specifically, their outfield. They should score on Friday, but the other two days are anyone's guess. They owned Pedro back when he was with the Sox; will that change now that Pedro has switched leagues?

For the Mets:
Tough break with Zambrano going down means that Jeremi Gonzalez sniffs a start for the first time in a while. Not good if you're the Mets. Could be Lima Time, though.

However, they've got their 1-2 punch in the final two games, meaning anything less than a series victory will be disappointing.

(For the record, this series falls under the "you'll hear about it somewhere else" exception.)

#2: Boston Red Sox (23-15, L1, 7-3) @ Philadelphia Phillies (22-18, L3, 6-4)
Pitching Matchups:
5/19: Clement vs Lieber
5/20: Beckett vs Myers
5/21: DiNardo vs Lidle

For the Red Sox:
It's a slightly easier draw for the Sox than the Yankees this weekend, even though this series got the #2 spot nod since the Phils are hotter than the Mets. They're getting healthy, which is good, as they're behind the gun - slightly - on pitching matchups.

Beckett is unquestionably their best pitcher going in this series, but they also drew the 1-2-3 of the Phils. Their familiarity with Lidle from previous seasons (Blue Jays) should help on Sunday. They could either get swept or win 2 out of 3, but a sweep might be a little too much to ask for.

For the Phillies:
Hey, solid pitching and a floundering Mets team? Sign me up! Huge motivation this weekend for the Phils - a good weekend and they could catch the Mets.

Is a good weekend possible? Totally - they lucked out only having to face Beckett. Just as importantly, David Ortiz will either be a PH or at first for the Sox. No reason why they shouldn't win the series here. Anything less will be subpar.

#1: Cincinnati Reds (24-17, W1, 4-6) @ Detroit Tigers (27-13, W7, 7-3)
Pitching Matchups:
5/19: Claussen vs Bonderman
5/20: Milton vs Maroth
5/21: Harang vs Robertson

For the Reds:
Uh-oh. Eric Milton's back. That's the equivalent of your mother-in-law dropping by because she was in the area.

That being said, Brandon Claussen and Harang have both been pleasant surprises, and while the Tigers have been tough pitching, they're not unbeatable. Unfortunately, the Tigers are also pretty hot. The key for the Reds will be getting ahead early and hoping the bullpen (with possible new closer Todd Coffey?) doesn't blow it.

Can it happen? 2 out of 3 isn't inconceivable. I can't pick Eric Milton to win, though.

For the Tigers:
Hot team + struggling visitors = fresh meat. Right?

This group of - still - overachievers (how much longer can we say that before they're for real? 2 weeks? 1 month?) throw their younger - but not youngest - guns out there this weekend. That'll keep them close.

What'll put 'em over the top? The Tigers know how to hit in Comerica. The Reds might not. The games will be closer than you think, but the Tigers should walk out of here with 2 - and they need to, as the Sox get an easier draw.

Divisional One-Month Updates

Maybe the better title would've been "Divisional One-Fifth of the Season Updates." That's kind of clunky, though, so you're stuck with that title. What can you figure out in the first month of the season with the standings? Well, if you can pick the divisional winners from that, I'd be surprised. However, you can figure out who's probably not going to get the title. That's what this is focusing on - who's probably out of it already.
(Standings are valid through Sunday night's games, since that's when I have the records.)

AL EAST
1 - Boston (19-12, 0 GB)
1 - New York (18-11, 0 GB)
3 - Toronto (16-14, 2.5 GB)
4 - Baltimore (14-19, 6 GB)
5 - Tampa Bay (13-19, 6.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- None
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Baltimore
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- None

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

No real surprises in terms of ordering. I don't think anyone outside of homers expected the breakdown to be that different.

Both Baltimore and Tampa Bay are up against it when it comes to staying competitve in the division. Given Tampa Bay's pitching woes (they suck except for Kazmir) and hitting ineffectiveness (Cantu and Baldelli on the DL, Huff just off the DL), they're probably toast - but not yet. Baltimore can both hit and pitch, but they tend to do both at once. In other words, they're streaky, not consistent.

Toronto probably needs to get Burnett back soon; the early performance of Alexis Rios has helped, though. They have the firepower available on the team to make things interesting at the top.

Boston? Viva le Papelbon.
New York? They can hit.

AL CENTRAL
1 - Chicago (22-9, 0 GB)
2 - Detroit (20-12, 2.5 GB)
3 - Cleveland (17-15, 5.5 GB)
4 - Minnesota (13-18, 9 GB)
5 - Kansas City (7-22, 14 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Detroit
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Minnesota
- Cleveland (mildly)
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- Kansas City

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

Let's get the obvious out of the way first. Kansas City sucks (but inexplicably owns Cleveland) and the White Sox still own everyone.

As for the rest of the division, surprises abound. Cleveland is mildly struggling (maybe they should beat the Royals; that'd help) - they're hitting, but the pitching has struggled mightily. With the amount of talent they have, there's no reason why they can't go on a roll.


Minnesota has deeper problems. Everyone figured that they couldn't hit (which is right). Nobody predicted the rotation would struggle. Johan Santana should work it out soon (and has showns signs of doing so already), as might Scott Baker, but their best help - Francisco Liriano - is locked into the bullpen thanks to Jesse Crain's ineffectiveness.

Detroit has been the biggest surprise. Can they keep it up? Everyone's playing over their heads right now, but the interesting thing is that they're not too above their heads. In addition, their historical performers (the guys who have done well before) haven't woken up yet. This might last longer than anyone expects.

AL WEST
1 - Texas (17-15, 0 GB)
2 - Oakland (16-15, 0.5 GB)
3 - Los Angeles (14-18, 3 GB)
4 - Seattle (13-20, 4.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Texas
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Los Angeles
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- None

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

Oddly enough, Texas is getting by on better-than-expected pitching. Their offense hasn't quite snapped in like everyone thought - yet. That won't last. The question for them is will the pitching perform well enough for long enough.

Seattle has kind of devolved into the King Felix show. Well, that and the "Everyday Eddie Ain't Everyday no More" miniseries; J.J. Putz is the main guy now. The rest of the team is kind of boring, in truth; it's not a horrible team (there are worse out there), but there's not any one thing they do well.

Anaheim, on the other hands, is great at not giving their starters run support. The back end of the rotation has some issues thanks to Colon's injury. In addition, they have this weird youth/vet thing going on with their hitters that you normally only see with rebuilding teams. Theyll work it out, though.

Oakland normally struggles early. This start can only mean good things for them once they go 22-4 in August (give or take).

NL EAST
1 - New York (21-10, 0 GB
2 - Philadelphia (17-14, 4 GB)
3 - Atlanta (13-18, 8 GB)
4 - Washington (11-21, 10 GB)
5 - Florida (8-21, 12.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- New York
- Philadelphia
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Washington
- Atlanta
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- Washington
- Florida

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

Florida and Washington are both bad. Florida kind of has a purpose to its performance; the Nats don't (but that may change soon). Atlanta hasn't pitched as effectively as expected (see Jorge Sosa, early Tim Hudson) and hasn't hit well either. That might turn around soon, but it may not matter by that point.

Philly is marginally better than expected, and in a divsiino with one struggling team and two bad ones, that's about all it takes to look like a challenger to the Mets.

The Mets have opened up strong. However, there are some cracks in the castle walls: Cliff Floyd has struggled and Victor Zambrano is out for the year. If Floyd stays healthy, he'll turn it around, but the Zambrano injury weakens the back end of the rotation. On top of that, movig Heilman into the rotation would weaken a pretty solid bullpen.

NL CENTRAL
1 - Cincinnati (21-11, 0 GB)
2 - St. Louis (20-12, 1 GB)
3 - Houston (19-12, 1.5 GB)
4 - Milwaukee (16-16, 5 GB)
5 - Chicago (14-16, 6 GB)
6 - Pittsburgh (9-24, 12.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Cincinnati
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Chicago
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- Pittsburgh

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

To nobody's surprise, Pittsburgh's been bad. They're stuck in a veteran/youth mold as well, and should probably just let the kids play. At least it'll be productive. Chicago hasn't played well, but injuries can be blamed for that mostly. They need offense in a bad way.

Cincinnati has had much better than expected pitching. Will it last? Maybe; Arroyo and Harang aren't bad, and with those bats, .500 the rest of the way is possible at least.

Houston has ben good, but blame it on a surprisingly good back-end of the rotation. Even with some changes, things might stay constant for them. Same with Milwaukee; look for them to stay kind of close, then make a late-season push.

St. Louis? Pujols is Pujols, and he's bailing out an underperforming offense.

NL WEST
1 - Colorado (19-13, 0 GB)
2 - Arizona (18-14, 1 GB)
3 - San Diego (16-15, 2.5 GB)
4 - Los Angeles (15-17, 4 GB)
5 - San Francisco (14-17, 4.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Colorado
- Arizona
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- None
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- None

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

This division is pretty much a race to five games over .500, and as far the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants are around that range. All these teams have some kind of hole - usually back-end pitching and offense - so they'll stay close.

Probably the seaosn's biggest surprise has been the Rockies getting it done- on the road no less. With Helton back, it's not outside the realm of possibility they keep this up. Stranger things have happened, and it's not exactly a powerhouse division in the first place.

Arizona is also a surprise; however, their situation is slightly different than Colorado's. If they can rely on Webb and their offense, who knows? They stand a chance.

Life After the Storm

First off, if you're looking for the Early Series post, it's here. This is a personal thing - a little bit of Nats love, if you will. Anyway.

The Nationals finally have an owner, and even MLB is admitting to it. The Lerner group was selected as the winning bidders on the team over the "token minority" cries of Marion Barry and a few others in DC politics (I forget the names).

As a Nationals (former Expos) fan, what does this mean? Honestly, I don't know yet. I've gotten so used to fandom without a direction that having one - at least theoretically - is kind of shocking. Granted, it's just as likely that he takes the team and guts it as it is that he jacks the payroll up and signs a few free agents. Let's look ahead to a possible Best-Case / Worst-Case Scenario.

BEST-CASE

The Mets got old, the Braves reverted to mid-80's form, and the Phillies never found pitching. This leaves the division wide-open, and the Nationals' new park (which opened on time) is better on hitters than RFK was. A retooled offense (led by Alfonso Soriano) and a rejuvenated pitching staff lead the Nationals to the first division crown (and over .500 record) this century.

Leadership is smart and saavy, as one of the first things that the Lerners did was fire Jim Bowden. Taking the approximate equivalent of a "Moneyball with money" approach allowed the Nats to both replenish their farm system and sign a series of solid, if unspectacular free agents. They give the Nationals a surprisingly deep lineup that - while it's not on the level of the early 2000's New York Yankees - is quietly dangerous. No major home run threats aside from Soriano (a holdover from the earlier era), but 25-HR types abound. Even Soriano found some plate discipline, and he even figured out how to be Rickey lite.

WORST-CASE

Jim Bowden is immediately signed to a 12-year extension. He responds by signing every pitching currently on the DL in the major leagues to 3-year guaranteed contracts. In addition, he forgets to sign a shortstop one season and the nats have to bring a guy up from rookie ball.

The new owners adopt an Orioles mindset. New free agent signings are made chiefly as "name" signings, even though their contribution to the team's success is minimal. Ryan Zimmerman is traded in 2008 for Jose Lima. The farm system is systematically gutted of anyone with talent, what little there was in the first place. As most of the money is tied up in the big leagues, the forces the nats to draft based on price, not talent.

Attendance suffers. 10 years from now, the Lerners sell the team back to MLB and buy the Marlins (after nuking the radio deal. They never got a TV deal in the first place). The new stadium collapses under its own weight on Opening Day.

What's likely? A combination of the two. I'm figuring a payroll increase, but just because we'll have money doesn't mean we'll spend it wisely. It's just as likely as the plan will be haphazardous as it will be clear. Even if Bowden's gone, there's no guarnatee that his replacement will be any better (Scott Layden -> Isiah Thomas, anyone?). Good drafting falls victim to injuries and unfulfilled expectations. Revenue streams might not be there.

We'll just have to see. I'd like to be optimistic, but I'm afraid of it - the Nats have killed me before. Who knows? Maybe this time my faith will be rewarded. Maybe this owner will give a damn about the team, about the city, about the fans. Hell, I'll just settle for caring about something beyond the bottom line.

Early Series Capsules: 5/8/06 - 5/10/06

Update! I'm actually posting something tangible after this. The horror!

Again, same basic idea as I did last time. Consider yourself warned.

#5: Houston Astros (19-12, L3, 4-6) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (15-17, W3, 5-5)
Pitching Matchups:
5/9: Pettitte vs Seo
5/10: Buchholz vs Tomko
5/11: Rodriguez vs Lowe

For the Astros:
Ouch. Get swept in Colorado, which can't be good for the psyche. Didn't hit well in Coors, either. They're struggling, and unless they ramp it around quickly, they could be up against it in the NL Central really quickly.

The good news? Their surprises are pitching - Buchholz and Rodriguez. There's no telling when they'll come back to earth, but you have to ride it while you can. Their pitching shouldn't be horrible in Chavez Ravine.

Can they win here? It's possible. Seo and Tomko aren't spectacular, so they should pull out one of those games. This is a very open series; if they get hot early (they have a game tonight, too), then they could very easily roll through here.

For the Dodgers:
Momentum is nice. Currently riding a 3-game sweep of the Brewers, the Dodgers now welcome in a struggling Astros team. Can they piece it together enough to sniff .500? Perhaps. Their starters should be serviceable, leaving the bulk of the burden on the offense. That's going to be a problem against the Astros starters.

Figure they'll win one game at least (not the Tuesday night game, though) and move from there. Homefield advantage should get them two, but there's no real key to this series, oddly enough.

#4: Milwaukee Brewers (15-15, L3, 4-6) @ San Diego Padres (16-15, W8, 8-2)
Pitching Matchups:
5/9: Davis vs Hensley
5/10: Capuano vs Park
5/11: Bush vs Peavy

For the Brewers:
Live by the young kids, die by them, huh? They lost a couple of close games to the Dodgers this weekend before getting blown out on Sunday. They should rebound, especially given the guys they're throwing. Davis is the key to this series for the Brewers - if he pitches well, they can come out of this series with a victory. Otherwise, they might win one, but asking for more than that will be tough.

David Bush draws the short straw and has to go against Peavy on Thursday. That's going to hurt, as he has to pitch pretty much perfectly to have any real shot of a victory. Of course, if the offense retools, all bets are off, but a 2-1 series victory isn't out of the question here.

For the Padres:
Eight-game winning streak? Yikes. The good news is Peavy goes for them in this series, so they've got a good shot at winning at least one. They're on a roll to boot - even Hensley and Park might be able to scrape enough run support to pull a game out. Of course, when you're not routing the hapless Cubs, that's not saying much. A couple of close victories early on before a decisive Sunday victory give this series the same basic view as the previous series for both these ballclubs.

Still, give the homefield advantage to the Padres and don't expect a lot of runs. Do expect a 2-1 series break for the Pads.

#3: New York Mets (21-10, L1, 7-3) @ Philadelphia Phillies (17-14, W8, 8-2)
Pitching Matchups:
5/9: Martinez vs Myers
5/10: Glavine vs Lidle
5/11: Trachsel vs Floyd

For the Mets:
Uh-oh. Here comes Lima Time. Well, to be precise, Lima Time went on Sunday, but still, there are some back-end rotation issues that the Mets won't have to deal with this series. They will, however, get to deal with Gavin Floyd. Open season!

Aside from that, though, this matchup is pretty even. Undoubtedly, the pressure is on the Mets to keep their hot start intact, and they'll be tested against a scorching Phillies team. Look for the Mets' bats to have an impact in the second two games, and if they're going to win the first, it's going to be on the back of Pedro.

For the Phillies:
Normally, I'd say they don't have much of a chance, but let's check the matchups. They're not too bad pitching-wise; Myers gets the short end of the stick, but if anyone can handle it on this staff, it's him. Glavine's been off the chain lately for the Mets, but who knows how long that'll last. They need to bring the bats on Thursday, though.

The Phillies need to get a little lucky here, to be honest. However, roasting San Fran is a pretty good tune-up for your bats, as their weekend victories were convincing. A sweep is probably too much to ask for, but a series win is at least plausible.

#2: Colorado Rockies (19-13, W3, 7-3) @ St. Louis Cardinals (20-12, W3, 5-5)
Pitching Matchups:
5/8: Francis vs Marquis
5/9: Fogg vs Carpenter
5/10: Kim vs Suppan

For the Rockies:
So much for struggling at home. After wiping out Houston there, the Rockies take their show on the road. They get a Cards team that isn't as good as the previous year's model, but still isn't bad in its own right. Brad Hawpe's been a road monster this year; if he can keep doing that, then the Rockies stand a chance.

Figure they'll lose the game Carpenter's starting. The other matchups aren't quite in their favor, but they're not so slanted that they can't pull both out. A series victory might be pushing it for them - but then again, they seem to be winning out of spite now anyway.

For the Cardinals:
Uh-oh. You knew they were going to get hot eventually, and while 5-5 in the last 10 isn't exactly hot, the 3-game winning streak could easily be a sign of things to come. There are holes, but they shouldn't be too terribly tested against the Rockies. Carpenter should rock the house against them.

For the other games, the question is where does the offense come (outside of Pujols)? It's a good question; Edmonds has struggled, and Rolen needs a third bat in the lineup to provide some protection - and that's a bat they don't have right now. If someone gets hot - Encarnacion, maybe - then you could see this lineup roll. Otherwise, they've got issues, but they can probably piece it together enough to win at least two.

#1: Boston Red Sox (19-12, W4, 6-4) @ New York Yankees (18-11, W5, 8-2)
Pitching Matchups:
5/9: Beckett vs Johnson
5/10: Schilling vs Mussina
5/11: Wakefield vs Chacon

For the Red Sox:
Everyone and their brother is covering this series. I'll be brief. Beckett and Schilling gives the Sox a huge advantage in the pitching department, as all the Yanks starters are at least reachable. If Wakefield has a good knuckler, then the Sox might sweep. If not, 2-1 is possible.

For the Yankees:
They've gotta hit. Plain and simple. If they do that, they'll give the pitching enough of a cushion to make a few mistakes, which they could very well need.

Late Series Capsules: 5/5/06 - 5/7/06

So I've made yet ANOTHER change in how I'm doing these. Instead of giving a preview of each series, I'm opting instead to just focus on what I feel are five series to watch, in order from least important to most important. This was partially done because it was, well, it was easier on me. In addition, there are certain series that unless you're a fan of those teams (or you have a fantasy team with players from those teams on it), there's no reason for you to care at all. (I'm looking at you, Pittsburgh @ Washington.)

To make up for this, what I'm doing instead is covering those selected five series a little more in-depth to give the the reader a better overview of what's going on in the series. The research is now more directed, and hopefully this'll give a better view on what's going on. Thoughts? Let me know!

#5: Atlanta Braves (12-16, L2, 3-7 in last 10) @ New York Mets (19-9, W2, 7-3)
Pitching Matchups:
5/5: Davies vs Trachsel
5/6: Hudson vs Zambrano
5/7: Sosa vs Maine

For the Braves:
Sure, it looks like a mismatch on paper against the Braves, seeing as how the Mets are hot and the Braves, well, aren't. But the Braves have always done well against the Mets, winning 2 of 3 at Shea last month. The key to the Braves' success in this series is going to be getting to the Mets' starters.

The Braves are fortunate enough to not have to throw out absolute dreck (Sosa is an exception), so they'll hold a small advantage in starting pitching. All the Mets' starters are reachable, and if their starters can hold the Mets down for 5-6 innings at least, this could be good news for the Braves. A series victory is more likely than you think. Davies won his last start against the Mets. Hudson's been HOT lately.

Can Francouer hit? Or walk? Or do something useful? There's the issue.

For the Mets:
They're hot, but they lack a little bit of a psychological edge. While their pitching is on the short end of the stick this time around, their hitting is well above the Braves'. They hold the homefield advantage, too.

There's no reason why they shouldn't win 2 out of 3, really. Sosa is certainly reachable, and they can probably get to Davies if Trachsel can throw a decent game. Of course, can Trachsel throw a decent game? If he can, they should rock the house against Sosa, and boom, there's your series victory. A win against Hudson would be nice, but probably a little unexpected.

#4: San Francisco Giants (14-14, L1, 4-6) @ Philadelphia Phillies (14-14, W5, 6-4)
Pitching Matchups:
5/5: Cain vs Floyd
5/6: Wright vs Madson
5/7: Morris vs Lieber

For the Giants:
Well, they're on a little bit of a skid, but there's no reason why they shouldn't walk out of here with 2 out of 3. Their pitching is a fair amount stronger than the Phillies' pitching, and even with that, their offense isn't too much worse. Cain and Wright are better than their counterparts (Cain especially).

Can they put up enough runs? Probably. It's an offensively-themed ballpark and two pretty bad starters. Of course they can. Win one, lose one, and you've got a decent chance at worst in the Sunday game. Sure you can pull this out.

For the Phillies:
Bad pitching? Eh, we'll just mash the crap out of the ball instead. They're hot - even with Floyd and Madson going. That'll hurt, but in that ballpark, they can put up a 5-spot in a hurry with the lineup, too. They need to be at the top of their offensive game early on, because otherwise they could be down early.

Slug their way past the first two games and then you have a small advantage at home with your ace going. A sweep isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility.

#3: Cincinnati Reds (20-9, W1, 8-2) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (16-13, W5, 8-2)
Pitching Matchups:
5/5: Ramirez vs Webb
5/6: Arroyo vs Vargas
5/7: Williams vs Hernandez

For the Reds:
Hell, I don't know. Arroyo's been lights-out for them, as has Harang. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me why they're as hot as they are, but 8-2 is 8-2 over the last 10. Things are just falling right for them.

In this series, they're going to have a tough job against Webb. Aside from that, though, runs should be plentiful. Their best avenue against Webb is get him to throw a ton of pitches early, wear him out, then rip the bullpen to shreds. Not exactly an original game plan, but a game plan anyway. That and hope Brandon Phillips gets hot again.

For the Diamondbacks:
They're doing better than expected, not to mention riding one heck of a hot streak going into this series as well. Their gameplan shapes up almost exactly like the Reds' gameplan; nail the starters early and often, and hope Arroyo goes into a high pitch count early.

The good news for the D-Backs is that the Reds' bullpen isn't that great. Weathers has done better than expected, but that's also because nobody really expected him to get save opportunities, either. It's always easy to exceed expectations when nobody has any.

Look for a fair amount of 8-6 games and the like. Best offense wins.

#2: Houston Astros (19-9, W3, 6-4) @ Colorado Rockies (16-13, L1, 6-4)
Pitching Matchups:
5/5: Buchholz vs Kim
5/6: Rodriguez vs Jennings
5/7: Nieve vs Cook

For the Astros:
Say what? They're on a roll, and Wandy Rodriguez has been pitching over his head lately. If that continues, great, but this has some signs of a false start. Of course, since Rodriguez (and a surprising Taylor Buchholz) are both pitching, we'll see what happens.

In their favor, the Rockies have sucked at home. They can sneak a couple again here. Of course, one of these days, Coors is going to become Coors, and on the surface, this looks like it could be a series of 10-8 games. In reality? Maybe just 6-4.

For the Rockies:
That 16-13 record? They're 10-5 on the road. What? Yeah, they're 6-8 at home. The homefield advantage Rockies are 6-8 at home. That won't last.

Now's as good a time as any to change that. The "bottomfeeders" of this division are on top, and this is a great opportunity to take the challenge presented by the Astros and show that this team is legit. Todd Helton is coming back on Friday, too.

#1: New York Yankees (15-11, W2, 7-3) @ Texas Rangers (17-12, W6, 7-3)
Pitching Matchups:
5/5: Mussina vs Padilla
5/6: Chacon vs Loe
5/7: Wang vs Tejeda

For the Yankees:
Congrats! Your pitchers are actually better in this series! A-Rod returns, too. Exciting for the home fans, I'm sure. Again, look for a hot team in a hot environment with hot hitters to cut these guys down. 4 runs has been their magic number of late - but I'd be surprised if they can win with anything less than 6.

Their main advantage is throwing Mussina in the first game. They luck out and get the back end of Texas' rotation. This means more chances to get to the bullpen early and often.

For the Rangers:
Their work is cut out for them. Again, they're hot - hotter than the Yankees - but that might not be quite enough. They're battling uphill with their pitchers, although not as much as you think. Padilla and Loe haven't been half bad. Again, like a lot of the better series this weekend, it's going to come down to hitting.

And the Rangers? They can mash. No reason they shouldn't take 2 out of 3.

What I've Missed

Okay, so thanks to a) a bunch of schoolwork and b) various levels of indisposition, I wasn't able to throw up the late-week series information last week. In addition, I'm going to have to wait on the early-series discussions as well due to real-life workload.

The good news? I'll return this weekend with the same basic format. Look for an update on either May 4th or May 5th.

Early Series Mini-miniature Capsules: 4/25 to 4/27

As always, same ranking theories as before. Work's the same, and while this is slightly later than I'd like it to be, it is technically before the first Tuesday game. I'll deal.

1. Boston (previous series 1-2, W1) @ Cleveland (previous series 1-2, L2) - Matchup du Jour

It's not an exciting week for matchups (at least during the week). Howver, this pairing would be exciting no matter what. Cleveland is coming off a surprise series loss to the Royals (everyone regresses to the mean sometime, I guess). Any way you break it, this will be a good series - good pitching and better hitting. Expect 2 blowouts (one by each team) and a close game in the 4-3 range.
BOSTON 5.5, CLEVELAND 4.5

2. Tampa Bay (previous series: 0-3, L3) @ New York (AL) (previous series: 2-1, W2) - Redemption (?)

Don't look now, but the Devil Rays were 11-8 last year against the Yanks. Bet that leaves a mark. Aside from the Damon pickup, not much has changed with either team. As always, if the Yanks can score, then they'll probably win. On paper, it's all Yankees - but we said that last year, too. Who knows?
NEW YORK (AL) 6, TAMPA BAY 4

3. Cincinnati (previous series: 3-1, W1) @ Washington (previous series: 1-1, L1) - Doctor's Orders

Hey, it's another bad pitching staff for the Nats to beat up on. Of course, it comes with a good offense, too. This will probably be as close to an offensive bonanza as anything in RFK will ever get; in other words, expect some 8-6 games. The Nats have the definite upside advantage, though, as their pitching usually isn't this bad.
WASHINGTON 6.5, CINCINNATI 3.5

4. Colorado (previous series: 2-1, W1) @ Philadelphia (previous series: 1-1, W1) - Next Best Thing to Home

It's not Coors, but it's not far off. Maybe the Rockies will believe it. That'd be the major way to avoid problems on the Rockies' end of things. For the Phillies, they can probably shut down the Rockies' offense, especially absent Todd Helton, who has some vaguely described stomach ailment.
PHILADELPHIA 7, COLORADO 3

5. Baltimore (previous series: 1-2, L2) @ Toronto (previous series: 2-1, L1) - Second Level Competition

Obviously, neither of these teams are bad, really. They just default out to the second level of teams in the AL East. Noting wrong with that. However, look for a significantly better offense (Toronto's) to be the deciding factor. Baltimore wil probably take a game in the series, but expecting more than that might be border slightly on outright folly.
TORONTO 6.5, BALTIMORE 3.5

6. Atlanta (previous series: 1-1, W1) @ Milwaukee (previous series: 1-3, L1) - Super-Delayed Homecoming

Of course, whenver Atlanta goes back to Milwaukee, someone has to bring up that the Braves used to play there. Getting back to modern times, both teams are having minor pitching issues. Atlanta still needs a serviceable 5th starter, and the Brewers are wondering what's going on with Doug Davis. Look for the Brewers' hitting to carry them over the slightly injured Braves.
MILWAUKEE 5.5, ATLANTA 4.5

7. Oakland (previous series: 1-2, L2) @ Texas (previous series: 3-0, W4) - Divisional Mediocrity

Both teams are still somewhat struggling and are better than their records indicate. While this matchup is close, it's only close because it's in Texas, where Oakland's pitching superiority isn't as easily exploited. However, Oakland's offense should do well against the substandard Texas pitching, which will account for the difference.
OAKLAND 6, TEXAS 4

8. Florida (previous series: 1-1, L1) @ Chicago (NL) (previous series: 1-2, W1) - Struggles

Chicago's still adjusting to life without Derrek Lee while Florida isn't very good. This series should be a positive thing for both team's offenses, especially if the wind blows out. This should be one of the times where the Cubs don't miss Lee; they don't need him here for one, and they should take two here.
CHICAGO (NL) 7, FLORIDA 3

9. Los Angeles (previous series: 2-1, W1) @ Houston (previous series: 3-0, W3) - Playing Field

The field is again a factor. This time, it's nullfying Los Angeles' pitching advantage. Unfortunately for them, Houston's pitching isn't as bad as expected, and even a more potent than normal offense might not be able to score enough runs to keep up. While these teams are close, close does not necessarily mean interesting in this case.
LOS ANGELES 5.5, HOUSTON 4.5

10. Minnesota (previous series: 0-3, L4) @ Kansas City (previous series: 2-1, W2) - Battle of Who Could Care Less

On one hand, you've got a team that consists of Johan Santana, Joe Nathan, a couple of decent hitters, and not much else. On the other hands, Kansas City wishes they had that much. Feel the excitement! WHen someone says that interleague matchups aren't exciting, neither is this series.
MINNESOTA 7, KANSAS CITY 3

11. Pittsburgh (previous series: 0-3, L4) @ St. Louis (previous series: 2-1, L1) - Divisional Boredom

Seriously - we saw this in Pittsburgh last week. What's changed? Nothing. Well, maybe Pujols isn't as hot, but that's it. This might qualify for the Unexciting Sweep of the Week, as each team probably already knows its fate - and nobody else has a lot of reason to care.
ST. LOUIS 8.5, PITTSBURGH 1.5

12. Detroit (previous series: 3-0, W5) @ LA Angels (previous series: 2-1, W2) - Gatecrashers

Don't look now (hey, I said that again), but Detroit hasn't done badly on their West Coast jaunt. Is this an early-season mirage or a sign of things to come? This will be a tougher test for the Tigers, as while the A's struggled compared to expectations, the Angels have not.
LA ANGELS 6, DETROIT 4

13. Chicago (AL) (previous series: 3-0, W6) @ Seattle (previous series: 0-3, L3) - Cakewalk

This should be easy pickings for the White Sox, as they're a fair amount better than Seattle. LIke most of the early series this week, there's not a whole lot more than that, it would seem. Felix isn't pitching for the Mariners, but they'll probably take a game. Don't hold your breath waiting, though.
CHICAGO (AL) 7, SEATTLE 3

14. Arizona (previous series: 1-2, L1) @ San Diego (previous series: 2-2, W1) - All-Ugly Award Winner

Seriously. You get Peavy this series, so enjoy it. The rest of this series should be hideous. Bad pitching in a pitcher's park is fun for the whole family. So why do I pan this series and like the Cincy/Washington matchup? I'm a Nats fan. Let's hear it for personal bias!
SAN DIEGO 6, ARIZONA 4

15. New York (NL) (previous series: 2-2, L1) @ San Francisco (previous series: 1-2, L1) - Thank You, Drive Through

New York is looking like they have a team this year. San Francisco consists of Barry Bonds and some young pitchers. Sounds like an even matchup. Oh yeah, Barry hit a HR in Coors. I think ESPN covered it in passing.
NEW YORK (NL) 6.5, SAN FRANCISCO 3.5

Late Series Mini-minature Capsules: 4/21 - 4/23

So, the basic ranking method can be found here. Same as before.

1. Baltimore (previous series: 2-1, W2) @ New York (AL) (previous series: 1-1, W1) - "Strength" v. Strength

The good news for Baltimore is that their better arms are going in this series (notable exception: Eric Bedard). The only problem with that is the Yankees' offense is solid; they'll be tested. Mazzone's starting to work, but the real key for Baltimore may lie in their ability to get to the non-Rivera part of the bullpen.
NEW YORK 6.5, BALTIMORE 3.5

2. Atlanta (previous series: 2-1, W2) @ Washington (previous series: 2-1, W1) - Struggles to Riches

Atlanta's pitching is slowly starting to round into shape; so are the Nationals' pitchers. Again, the key to this series may be each team's ability to generate offense. These team match up better than you'd think, especially given any National momentum at likely getting a new owner.
WASHINGTON 5, ATLANTA 5

3. Florida (previous series: 1-2, L1) @ Philadelphia (previous series: 1-2, L1) - Offensive Continuation

Philadelphia gets a younger and more suspect staff than Washington and a worse bullpen. Florida gets a tougher staff, but a slightly weaker opposing offense. Still, there's no reason that the Marlin offense can't roll out 5 a game. The question for them is they can allow less than that.
PHILADELPHIA 6.5, FLORIDA 3.5

4. Boston (previous series: 2-1, L1) @ Toronto (previous series: 1-1, L1) - Momentum Declaration

The winner of this series takes the momentum drivers' seat in the AL East. Until the Yankees wake up, one of these teams will rule the AL East. Honestly, these teams match up well; Boston is slightly strong, but Toronto has the homefield advantage.
TORONTO 5, BOSTON 5

5. Cincinnati (previous series: 2-1, W1) @ Milwaukee (previous series: 1-2, W1) - When Hitting Collides

While Cincy has a better lineup, Milwaukee's lineup is by no means bad. In addition, Milwaukee's pitching is strong enough to at least partially stifle Cincy's bats. Cincy's pitching? Not so much; figure on one game where they silence the Brewers, but more than one would be surprising.
MILWAUKEE 6.5, CINCINNATI 3.5

6. Tampa Bay (previous series: 1-2, W1) @ Texas (previous series: 2-1, W1) - Ineffective Pitching Defined

Neither team has had terribly effective pitching so far. The main difference is that Texas' offense is much better than Tampa's; in addition, Texas' pitching is at least incrementally better than Tampa Bay's. The Rangers don't have an appreciable advantage, but they have engouh small advantagees across the board to make a major difference.
TEXAS 6.5, TAMPA BAY 3.5

7. Pittsburgh (previous series: 1-2, L1) @ Houston (previous series: 2-1, L1) - Strength in Home

Three majoe advantages for Houston: they're at home, their ace (Oswalt) pitches on Sunday, and the Pirates simply aren't very good in the first place. The only major mitigating factor for the Pirates is that Houston's staff really only runs two strong, and they'll have their shot against Wandy Rodriguez and Taylor Buchholz. As long as their staff keeps them in the game, they should be able to snake one.
HOUSTON 7, PITTSBURGH 3

8. Cleveland (previous series: 1-2, L2) @ Kansas City (previous series: 0-3, L3) - Wanton Slaughter

Poor Royals. First they get the defending World Series champions, and now they get the pissed-off Indians. The good news for them is that they should be able to score a few runs; if they can luck out and hold the Indians down, they could steal a game. The bad news is that's probably just theoretical; when your lifeline is "what if they suck?", that's when you know you have problems.
CLEVELAND 8, KANSAS CITY 2

9. Chicago (NL) (previous series: 2-1, W1) @ St. Louis (previous series: 2-1, W1) - Life Without Lee

Ouch. On one hand, the Cubs throw Maddux on Sunday and get a shot against Ponson on Saturday. On the other hand, they just lost Derrek Lee for at least 2 months, and Rusch is going against Sir Meatball. At least they won't face Carpenter, but they should win one here.
ST. LOUIS 6, CHICAGO 4

10. Minnesota (previous series: 1-2, L1) @ Chicago (AL) (previous series: 3-0, W3) - Divisional Crackdown

Chicago had it easy this week. If the White Sox can keep pitching, they sweep, especially if Johan's not slated to start. Unfortunately for them, he's going on Friday. That means that Minnesota can easily sneak out with a couple of 2-1 or 3-2 victories.
CHICAGO (AL) 7, MINNESOTA 3

11. San Francisco (previous series: 2-2, W1) @ Colorado (previous series: 1-2, L1) @ Repeat!

This is pretty much the same basic idea as the San Diego / Colorado and San Francisco / Arizona matchups from earlier in the wek, except San Fran has better pitching than San Diego. Two storylines are Colorado's struggles at home so far this year and - of course - Bonds at altitude.
SAN FRANCISCO 5.5, COLORADO 4.5

12. LA Angels (previous series: 2-1, W1) @ Oakland (previous series: 1-2, L2) - Race to 3 Runs

Both these teams have loaded pitching staffs and solid bullpens. Expect all these games to be tightly contested affairs dominated by excellent pitching. Oakland holds a slight advantage due to having the homefield advantage and a slightly more solid lineup; plus, the Angels just lost Bartolo Colon.
OAKLAND 5.5, LA ANGELS 4.5

13. Detroit (previous series: 2-1, W2) @ Seattle (previous series: 1-2, W1) - Fishmarket

Neither team has been doing particularly well; Seattle's still struggling, and there's not a lot going on in Detroit outside of Chris Shelton. This certainly has the makings of the All-Ugly Series of the Weekend, as the only things to watch for in this series pitch on Sunday (Verlander for the Tigers, Felix for the Mariners).
DETROIT 5.5, SEATTLE 4.5

14. New York (NL) (previous series: 1-2, L2) @ San Diego (previous series: 2-1, W1) - Reverse Homecoming

Even thoguh the big names went from New York to San Diego, the first series of the season between these two teams comes in Petco. San Diego is coming off a series win in Colorado. Look for the Mets to strike hard against the Padres' pitching, as their bats didn't do much against Atlanta.
NEW YORK (NL) 6, SAN DIEGO 4

15. Arizona (previous series: 2-2, L1) @ Los Angeles (previous series: 1-2, L1) - Nullified Disadvantage

You'd think that the Dodgers would manage to put up a lot of runs against the Arizona pitching staff, but as it turns out, that's not actually the case. Blame Chavez Ravine. It gives the D-Backs more of a chance than they would have otherwise.
LOS ANGELES 6, ARIZONA 4

Early Series Mini-miniature Capsules: 4/18 to 4/20

Okay, before I get to this, I decided to make yet another number-based system to sort teams. I like doing that sort of thing, evidently. Already have done one major chart of most of the MRs in baseball and a host of other rankings that aren't online, but trust me, I've done them. Anyway, the sliding scale is a base-10 system. Basically, there are 10 points that I associate with any series, and they're split up between both teams - normally not equally. The more points you get, the more likely you are to win the series. It's rough, but based on a 3-game series, these are the breakdowns I'm going off of:

team >= 8: 3-0
8 > team >= 5: 2-1
5 > team >= 2: 1-2
team <= 2: 0-3

So yes, any rankings of 5 really just mean "I have no idea." Change it how you want for 4-game series or 2-game series. Those should be a little more evident.

1. Cleveland @ Baltimore - Youth v. Youth

Cleveland has the young hitting, Baltimore has the young pitching. Based on the park factors, this would seem to favor Cleveland slightly. Factor in Cleveland's youth is more experienced and the advantage shifts even more to Cleveland. Baltimore's main advantage is Chris Ray.
CLEVELAND 6.5, BALTIMORE 3.5

2. Tampa Bay @ Boston - Ouch City

At least Tampa Bay shouldn't have to worry about their closer. Orvella's back, but it won't matter; Boston is so much better than Tampa Bay across the baord. The Devil Rays' main advantage - if you can call it that - is their young hitting. Maybe they can work Wily Mo Pena to exhaustion.
BOSTON 8, TAMPA BAY 2

3. St. Louis @ Pittsburgh - Divisional Slam

Zach Duke finally woke up for the Pirates; that gives them one pitcher and two hitters (Craig Wilson and Jason Bay). Duke won't pitch in the series. Ouch. As for the Cards, they're still rounding into shape, Pujols is pounding the ball, and everything else, while it might not be clicking perfectly, is certainly clicking well enough to where it won't matter anyway.
ST. LOUIS 7.5, PITTSBURGH 2.5

4. Washington @ Pittsburgh - First to 10 Runs Wins

Washington is finally getting non-horrible starts from its staff and is riding a 2-game winning streak as a result. The Phillies just won 1-0 in Coors. Don't expect this to continue. Of interest for the Nats is who pitches for Drese and how Livan does, but expect the runs to be free-flowing.
PHILADELPHIA 6, WASHINGTON 4

5. New York (AL) @ Toronto - Harbringer

Closer matchup than you'd think. The Yankees' lineup is loaded, while the Toronto lineup (to up and including Alex Rios) hasn't been that bad. This ends up a matchup of strength v. strength, and should be an exciting showdown, especially for so early in the year.
NEW YORK (AL) 5, TORONTO 5

6. Florida @ Cincinnati - Cue the Crickets!

Cincinnati's opened the season strong (surprising). Florida hasn't (not surprising). About the only major question in this series is when the Reds will fall back to earth. Of secondary importance is what the Fish will do in absence of Hermida; this ballpark and the Reds' staff is a perfect place to get some inflated numbers for his replacement.
CINCINNATI 6, FLORIDA 4

7. Atlanta @ New York Mets - Force Meets Wall

The Mets have opened up the season on an absolute tear. There's no reason it shouldn't continue; the Braves have struggled out of the gate, and now their right half of the infield is injured, too. However, they've had the Mets' number over the last few years; they get up for these games.
NEW YORK (NL) 6, ATLANTA 4

8. Kansas City @ Chicago (AL) - Forecast Calls for Pain

Simply put, a mismatch; Kansas City has no appreciable advantage - even potentially - over the White Sox. If the Sox fail to show up for a game, then they Royals might steal one, but even that's debatable.
CHICAGO (AL) 9, KANSAS CITY 1

9. Milwaukee @ Houston - Return / Resurgence?

The Brewers have started hitting, and Ben Sheets is back for them. All signs point to Milwaukee rolling all over Houston, but keep in mind two things: Houston hasn't been hitting poorly themselves, and Andy Pettitte has performed badly so far; that won't last. Even if it does, the Astros' bullpen is still great.
MILWAUKEE 6.5, HOUSTON 3.5

10. LA Angels @ Minnesota - When Pitching Collides?

Both teams have excellent pitching with a couple of early-season question marks. For the Angels, it's K-Rod and Escobar / Weaver. For the Twins, it's Radke and Santana (early struggles). Of course, watch Murphy's Pitching Corollary in effect; it's either 3 low-scoring games or 3 offensive explosions.
LA ANGELS 7, MINNESOTA 3

11. San Diego @ Colorado - Crapshoot

Two teams without obvious strengths. San Diego's slightly better pitching is nullified by Coors. Colorado's slightly better hitting is nullfied by their substandard pitching. In other words, it's business as usual in Denver.
COLORADO 5.5, SAN DIEGO 4.5

12. San Francisco @ Arizona - Dichotomies

We just saw this series in Colorado. The same basic ideas are in play here, except the Giants' pitching is better than the Padres', and Arizona doesn't have much going for them outside of Brandon Webb and Chad Tracy. This might be the winner of the All-Ugly award, especially if Bonds continues to suck.
SAN FRANCISCO 6, ARIZONA 4

13. Detroit @ Oakland - Momentum?

While Detroit has cooled off after a blistering start (Chris Shelton has not), Oakland is still riding strong behind their pitching. This is more a matchup of young pitching than you'd think between these two. Detroit has Bonderman, Robertson, Maroth, and Verlander; Oakland has Harden, Harden, and Blanton.
OAKLAND 6.5, DETROIT 3.5

14. Texas @ Seattle - When Flounders Collide

Both teams have struggled early on. They're both better than indicated, although the ceiling for Texas is higher than the one for Seattle. Watching King Felix to see how he responds to getting hammered in his last start.
TEXAS 6.5, SEATTLE 3.5

15. Chicago (NL) @ Los Angeles - Steamroller

The good new for Chicago? Their pitching isn't this bad. The badnews? The Dodgers are on a roll. Chicago's performance in the series hinges on Zambrano's performance - and he's due.
CHICAGO (NL) 5, LOS ANGELES 5

6 Bigger Things: 4/16/06

This is more or less ripping off of my previous post. I don't think it counts as plagarism if you use yourself as a template, right? I hope not.

1. Old Man's Revival - New York Mets / Chicago Cubs

This is the tale of two former Braves who - at least for now - are enjoying a pretty thorough revival of their former selves. Tom Glavine struck out 11 against the Brewers on Friday, April 14, and while that sounds pretty impressive, remember that the Brewers lineup is mostly comprised of youngsters. Not saying that it's not an impressive accomplishment - moreso for Glavine, given his age and his "I might be washed-up"-ness, but Glavine hasn't seen those kind of K numbers since he was getting those pitches 6 inches off the outside corner called as strikes. Factor this recent showing with a surprisingly strong second half of 2005 and a new outlook on how he pitches, and this could get really interesting really quickly for Glavine. Hasn't hurt his cause that the Mets have opened up red-hot, either.

On the other hand, Greg Maddux has been lights-out for the Cubs simply because he has to be. Nobody else on the staff has produced anything of consequence (see my previous post) other than headaches. It's still debateable at this point - much like Glavine - how long Maddux can keep this up. My guess is he's performing at a higher level simply because nobody else on his team is doing so, and once they start picking it up, Maddux will back off some.

2. Ryan Klesko Pulls a Wally Pipp - San Diego Padres

If the Padres hadn't tried to move Adam Eaton, we would never have seen this. As it stands, Adrian Gonzalez took over at first (coming over from the Rangers in the Eaton deal) when Ryan Klesko got injured, and Adrian shows no sign of slowing down. Those that have followed him don't find this terribly surprising - he was blocked by Mark Teixiera, so it's not really that bad to say you can't break camp as the starter when he's in front of you. As of now, he's a high average, decent power kind of guy with a plus glove. This year - even with this showing - will be more than likely a growing year for him; expect the occasional slump as he adjusts to major league pitching. On the whole, though, the Padres have found a long-term answer at first.

3. Turnabout - Washington Nationals

Someone forgot to tell these guys they needed to pitch. They were supposed to have problems hitting. However, utter ineffectiveness all across the board on the pitching staff has placed an undue burden on the hitters. The ironic thing about this is that so far, the offense has stepped up; they've performed significantly better so far than they did last year. If the pitching held up their end of the bargain, the Nats would probably already have 2 more wins.

The only good news on the pitching side of things is that the loss of Luis Ayala isn't being felt that bad yet. Jon Rauch looks like he's stepped into that superman reliever role - which he can do, given that could be a starter as well. Matter of fact, with Ryan Drese's recent injury, he might be that, too.

4. When Everything Fails - Texas Rangers

The anti-Washington Nationals were supposed to be able to crush everyone offensively. Two weeks in and their offense has sputtered, relatively speaking. Brad Wilkerson is certainly one of the main culprits, although production is down across the board.

However, unlike the Nationals, the pitching has not risen to the occasion. New ace Kevin Millwood has been rocked whenever he's taken the mound, and the main acquisition from the Chris Young / Adrian Gonzalez deal - Adam Eaton - is already on the DL. The good news here is that while the team is bad now, the offense is too good not to rise to the occasion and Millwood won't remain as bad as he's been so far.

5. Dogfight - AL Central (except the Royals)

What will probably be a hotly contested division all year has begun that way as well. Detroit has fallen back to the pack after a blistering start, and as of now (4/15), the Indians and the White Sox are tied at the top, while the Tigers are tied with the Twins. Look for this trend to continue.

Honestly, look for these groupings to continue throughout the year. Figure that the Indians will spend most of the season in close contention with the White Sox, and the Tigers will fight with the Twins for third. The AL Central is probably the most obviously tiered division in baseball; it's odd that it seems to have already reached its natural balance so soon.

6. Unbalanced Closers - Baltimore / Boston / Tampa Bay

Closer problems?

Baltimore - So far, Chris Ray has performed well. There were questions going into the season about his performance, but so far, so good.

Boston - Foulke's gone. In his place, Papelbon is in. He's done well in the role, although it is early in the year. While most people don't doubt his ability to perform under pressure (I don't doubt it myself), it'll remain to be seen how well he'll do later.

Tampa Bay - This, not surprisingly, is a mess. Life after Miceli is debatable until Chad Orvella finally makes it back to the big leagues. At this point, he's unquestionably (barring trades) the closer of the future. Right now, it's anybody's guess as to who the closer of the present is. If you know, could you tell Joe Maddon, please?

12 Quick Hits: 4/13/06

First off, it's two weeks in. I'm not finishing the capsules. That kind of annoys me, but it's my procrastination, hence it's my fault. I'll start earlier next year. Anyway, onto this.

1. Round 2 of the Beanball Wars - Mets @ Nats

So after last week's beanball extravaganza, the Nats and Mets have met for another 3-game series, this time in Washington. Granted, MLB did tell them to back off, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they will. Matter of fact, pretty much the only thing that we've learned from this series is that the Nationals pitching has sucked so far. Even Livan couldn't bail them out today. (Just imagine there's a link to the pasting the Nats got delivered today where the "for" two sentences up is, okay?)

2. Injury Train Rides Again - Los Angeles Dodgers

Yikes. Talk about a potential trainwreck. Gagne might be out for the season (again), Nomar's already on the DL, Kenny Lofton's on the DL, and Olmedo Saenz and Kent are day-to-day. This right here is why I'm not a huge fan of the Dodgers - too many injury risks. One thing that the Dodgers were smart in doing that the Giants weren't is that they thought ahead to actually sign an ex-closer (Danys Baez) to close in case Gagne went down again. At least Nomar was largely an experiment, too.

3. Whither Pitching? - Chicago Cubs

So we already knew Prior was injured along with Wood. That's not a surprise. Where the surprise lies is that everyone else has sucked. Well, and Maddux is pitching out of this world so far- all the way back to the mid-90's. What wasn't expected was that the rest of the rotation would suck this badly. When Zambrano's struggling, that's when you know you have problems.

4. Tigers on Top? - Detroit Tigers

Blame Chris Shelton. 7 HR already? I mean, they're still probably the third-best team in the division behind Chicago and Cleveland, but didn't we say the same thing about Chicago last year? Could be interesting, and at the least, Shelton's hot start deserves some mention. What's also playing into the Tigers' favor is do they know they're not supposed to be this good? This is a young team, after all.

5. Wait 'Til Next Year - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

They knew the pitching was going to be bad, but this bad? Kazmir's not horrible, but the rest of this staff is dreadful. Textbook example: Mark Hendrickson ...well, kinda sucks, but he did throw a three-hit shutout against the Orioles. Of course, after that he promptly goes on the 15-day DL. Now Aubrey Huff is injured, too. Great. At least Chad Orvella is back with the team.

6. The Mazzone Experiment - Baltimore Orioles

Two weeks in, Eric Bedard has performed better than he had last season. As for Daniel Cabrera, he doesn't seem to be as quick to catch the information presented to him by Mazzone; while he has a ton of strikeouts, he also issued 8 walks in his last game. Hoo boy. Evidently he was also not working batters like Mazzone prefers. Consider this a recording for posterity.

7. Beginning/Ending - Boston Red Sox

Hey, look, a team I haven't covered yet! Well, Keith Foulke was supposed to be the closer, but he's struggled. Jonathan Papelbon, though, hasn't. Better performances, better numbers, but more youth. Statistically speaking, there's no reason that Papelbon shouldn't be the closer; non-statistically, you can look at youth and loyalty. My guess is that it'll change fairly soon, in a month or two.

8. What Centerfield Savior? - Texas Rangers

Oops. Evidently Brad "Mendoza" Wilkerson wasn't the savior the Rangers are looking for. The only real mitigating factor is that everyone has sucked offensively for them so far. Ironically, Alfonso Soriano has rocked the house - relatively speaking - so far for the Nats. This probably won't last, though.

9. Help Your Cause - Cincinnati Reds

Alternatively, this could be entitled "Arroyo owns Rusch." Arroyo's got 2 HR already, both off of Rusch - both games were Reds wins, too. Ironically, the questionable decisions of giving Rich Aurilia and Tony Womack regular playing time have worked out, god only knows how. Freel's getting regular playing time thanks to our favorite injury-prone player, Ken Griffey, Jr.

10. The Sosa Surprise - Atlanta Braves

So Jorge Sosa had a surprisingly good season last year, so much so that the Braves were counting on him at the tail end of the rotation. That's worked - to the tune of a 11.37 ERA. Ouch. This could get nasty; bet the Braves never thought Horacio Ramirez could be their savior.

11. Michael Barrett >> You - Chicago Cubs

Joining Chris Shelton on the All-First-Two-Weeks Team is Michael Barrett, who's been rocking the cover off the ball since Opening Day. Not that he sucked in the first place, but he's just really good now. This is probably just an April spurt, but we said the same thing about Derrek Lee last year.

12. Next Verse, Same as the First - San Francisco Giants

So the Giants are still old, still have a questionable offense, and still have an injured closer. Armando Benitez should be back somewhat soon, but in the meantime, it's that damn closer by committee thing again. You'd think that they would make a change like the Dodgers did and bring in someone worth a damn who's done this before, but not so much on the forward thinking.

Cleveland Indians: Youth Movement

Head back to the home discussion

Starting Pitching:

Ace: Jake Westbrook
2nd: Cliff Lee
3rd: C.C. Sabathia (injured)
4th: Paul Byrd
5th: Jason Johnson

5 questions:

1. Will Sabathia ...well, for one, return well from injury, and two, perform at the level of effectiveness he had last season?
2. How will the rotation cope with the loss of last year's ERA king, Kevin Millwood?
3. How deep is the rotation? Newcomers Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson will be at least serviceable, but beyond that?
4. Along the same lines, how will Byrd perform in the rotation?
5. Will the rotation perform well enough to allow the offense to compete with the White Sox?

More information:
Jake Westbrook
C. C. Sabathia

Bullpen / Closer:

Closer: Bob Wickman
8th: Rafael Betancourt
7th: Guillermo Mota
Sit. Right.: Fernando Cabrera
Sit. Lefty:
Mop-up: Danny Graves

5 questions:

1. Danny Graves? Really, Danny Graves? Is the bullpen that hard up for help?
2. Will Wickman fall apart this season?
3. How will the young guys (Betancourt, Cabrera) perform given increased responsibility?
4. Will Mota improve back to his '04 levels now that he's performing under less pressure - and more health - than he was in Florida last year?
5. How are they getting lefties out?

More information:
Fernando Cabrera

Infielders:

C: Victor Martinez
1B: Ben Broussard
2B: Ronnie Belliard
SS: Johnny Peralta
3B: Aaron Boone
DH: Travis Hafner

5 questions:

1. Whither Andy Marte? How long will it be before he comes up?
2. How much will the young kids improve / rake it?
3. Will Hafner's health have a significant impact on their offensive performance?
4. Can Boone perform at all close to what he's done in the past?
5. How good can V-Mart and Hafner be in the middle of this lineup? Yikes.

More information:
Johnny Peralta
Travis Hafner
Andy Marte

Outfielders:
RF: Casey Blake
CF: Grady Sizemore
LF: Jason Michaels

3 questions:

1. How will the outfield play with the loss of Coco Crisp to the Red Sox?
2. Is there any speed here outside of Sizemore?
3. How will Jason Michaels perform given an everyday role?

More information:
Grady Sizemore
Jason Michaels

Extra Stuff:

I'll be honest - I like the Indians for the wild-card. They've got enough youth and offensive prowess to win more than their fair share of slugfests, and their pitching should keep them in close games. Mind you, the World Champion White Sox might not have happened last year had the Indians not bit it late last year. Food for thought.