Ignore the dust in here

My apologies in advance; I'm going to be revamping the blog layout over the next few days. There won't be any difference in content - make your own joke - but the appearance will be changing. I don't know what it'll change to yet - just something I like more. I'd expect a reduction in the font size, maybe a widening of the text box so there's not as much dead space. Link update, perhaps.

There may be a secondary, much bigger change coming in the next couple of weeks; I'll update you again if that's the case.

One Guy Turbo-Previews the Final Four

First off, check out the regional previews if you haven't yet: South, East, Midwest, and West.

Our F4 participants:
South - (1) Ohio State
East - (2) Georgetown
Midwest - (1) Florida
West - (2) UCLA

Out at F4:
(2) Georgetown, (1) Florida
I can't pick a repeat champion, which is why I have to bounce Florida here. It's nothing personal. Also, I don't think Georgetown can handle Oden inside and Conley outside, although the Hoyas do have a strong guard presence.

Just Missing the Title
(1) Ohio State
Two rules in play here:
1 - the trendy pick never wins the title, it seems
2 - it's not like UCLA has an inside presence for Oden to shut down
In addition, remember that UCLA bit it to lose their 1 seed, so it's not like it should be too surprising here.

Your (more than likely not) National Champion: (2) UCLA

One Guy Turbo-Previews the West Division

Almost home! At least for me. Rest assured that I'm putting just as much thought into the West division as I am any other division (read: none at all).

1st Round Outs
(16s) Niagara / Florida A&M, (15) Weber State, (14) Wright State, (13) Holy Cross, (12) Illinois
Really, I'm just picking on the States here. And trying to piss off Simmons, even though we're using a very similar format for this. I should note that I did try to write semi-extensive team capsules, then stopped after doing 1 because:
1 - they were taking about an hour, at least
2 - there are at least equal ones online
I don't feel too broken up about it. Also, Illinois would've taken the Last Major Conference Team In title were it not for Arkansas. Stupid Arkansas.

(8) Kentucky, (7) Indiana, (6) Duke
Don't call it an upset. Or upsets, whatever. Kentucky hasn't been doing anything all season, Gonzaga's good for a win if they're below a 7 seed, and Duke may be the schauenfreude winner of the tourney.

2nd Round Outs
(11) VCU, (10) Gonzaga, (9) Villanova
Weeding out the chaff here - although the Zags will certainly keep it close against UCLA. I think.

(4) Southern Illinois
Losing just to make sure that no region gets all their top seeds through to the Sweet 16.

Sweet 16 Outs
(5) Virginia Tech, (3) Pitt
Pitt was probably slightly overseeded, but they got here because they had to beat Wright State and VCU. Whoopee. Tech just goes down to a better team.

Just Missing the Final Four
(1) Kansas
This will be a minor shocker, I think, but I also think Kansas may be more tired than UCLA at this point. I love having conclusive, hard evidence that points to a Final Four participant, don't you?

Honestly, since it's not like anyone else has any real ideas on how to pick F4 contestants, I'm just trying winging it.

Out of the West: (2) UCLA

One Guy Turbo-Previews the Midwest Division

I'm on a roll. Why stop now? (Because nobody cares?) Shut up, I didn't ask you.

1st Round Outs
(16) Jackson St., (15) Texas A&M Corpus Christi, (14) Miami (OH), (10) Georgia Tech
To be fair, one of these teams is not like the rest (one of these teams is different. I'm loving the parentheticals today). Georgia Tech just got screwed by going up against an underseeded UNLV team.

(9) Purdue, (6) Notre Dame, (13) Davidson
All charter members of the "let's keep it close so it doesn't look like as much of a blowout" club. Oddly enough, Davidson may have the best shot of a victory out of these guys.

(5) Butler
A runaway winner of the "trendy 5-12 upset pick". Since this blog is all about the trend of not updating in any sort of consistent manner, it'd make total sense to go along with yet another trend. Viva la groupthink!

2nd Round Outs
(12) Old Dominion, (8) Arizona
Either a) not going to happen, period or b) too inconsistent on a night-to-night basis. They have the talent to pull off the upsets, but I don't think they'll happen. It should be noted I'm having a hard time picking winners in this division anywhere.

(2) Wisconsin, (3) Oregon
And this is the bracket that gets blown to hell for the Sweet 16. And no, I didn't actually predict both those upsets in mine, opting to say Oregon beat Winthrop so I could not have my bracket blown to shit by the end of the second round. But if these happen, you read it here first. Both of you.

Sweet 16 Outs
(11) Winthrop, (4) Maryland
This will be Florida's toughest game en route to Atlanta, and ...well, someone's gotta win the UNLV/Winthrop matchup. It's not like they can both be eliminated.

Just Missing the Final Four
(7) UNLV
You know how you pick winners just based on matchups, and then you end up with something weird like half your bracket looking like ass come the Sweet 16 so you have to pick the favorite to make the Final Four so you don't feel like as much of an idiot, only it takes you two rounds to clear out all the deadwood? Yeah, that's this pick.

Out of the Midwest: (1) Florida

One Guy Turbo-Previews the East Division

We've been through this once already. Let's continue on, shall we?

1st Round Outs
(16) Eastern Kentucky, (15) Belmont, (13) New Mexico St., (11) George Washington
Thanks for playing! Enjoy your complimentary tournament gear, and we'll see you next year.

(10) Texas Tech
Eliminated under the little-known "no way in hell am I picking a subpar team coached by Bob Knight" clause.

(8) Marquette
Sure?

(5) USC, (3) Washington St.
Know how one region always gets blown to hell in the first round, only to look normal by the Sweet 16? Here you are. Arkansas's not very good, but USC left skidmarks going in reverse so far - plus they weren't great. Washington St. plays at a snail's pace, which will play to Oral Roberts' strength. Plus, ORU has the whole veteran leadership thing.

But really, I just wanted to see if you were paying attention and demonstrate my obvious East Coast Bias. (~!)

2nd Round Outs
(14) Oral Roberts, (12) Arkansas
Thanks for blowing a bunch of people's brackets up! Here's your reward - bounced by Vandy and Texas, respectively.

(7) Boston College, (9) Michigan State
This may turn out to be the simplest Sweet 16 prediction.

Out in Sweet 16
(6) Vanderbilt
Doesn't have the horses to hang with Georgetown for 40 minutes - they're a solid team, but that won't get you too much further in the tourney at this point.

(4) Texas
The UNC / Texas game is the toughest for me (and a bunch of other people) to predict. However, I'm going to say this game will unfold very much like the Texas / Kansas game did last Sunday (and on the 2nd of March). I could very well be wrong about this - if I am, that'll be how the next game unfolds.

Just Missing the Final Four
(1) UNC
I have no real reason for this; it's not like I have this giant crush on all things Georgetown. I just don't think UNC can do it - maybe they're worn out from playing Texas, maybe Hansbrough can't go with his mask, maybe Roy Williams turns into a 6-foot chicken on the sidelines. Really, I don't know how Georgetown will get by here .... I just think they will.

From the East: (2) Georgetown

One Guy Turbo-Previews the South Division

Should've done this three days ago. Isn't that a running tradition with this blog, though? Anyway, I'll be doing this on which teams get eliminated when, in order of decreasing confidence.

Round 1 Outs
(16) Central Connecticut St., (15) North Texas, (14) Penn
These guys come straight out of the "no realistic chance" category.

(12) Long Beach State
Yeah, I'll admit this is part homerism. However, while they do shoot the 3 well, that's about it - their guards don't handle the ball particularly well and they don't have a ton of height. I think LBSU could beat up on almost any other 5 seed, but this was probably their worst matchup, as Tennessee does what they do, only better.

(11) Stanford, (10) Creighton
Like LBSU, both of these teams are talented enough to win a game. However, they also both have one major factor working against them:
Stanford - the game is going to basically be a home game for Louisville
Creighton - Nevada's going to get their main scorer back for this game, and what further complicates matters is Nevada's underseeded.

(8) BYU
Token minor upset (this bracket is looking like mostly chalk). It's an 8-9 game, and I don't normally research those games, so I'll go with the hot hand and pick Xavier to win here.

(13) Albany
The UVA/Albany game should be one of those scary not-quite-an-upset games where Albany ends up having a shot to win late, only blowing it. It's a good matchup for Albany - UVA is, among other things, mildly inconsistent and overseeded - but one edge Albany won't have on the Hoo is depth. They will have leadership.

2nd Round Outs
(9) Xavier, (4) Virginia
Thanks for playing. (And yes, let's hear it for homerism.) Xavier can't compete on the inside, Virginia can't compete with a team seeded where it should be seeded. This sets up a Tennessee / Ohio State rematch.

(7) Nevada
Maybe it's an unlucky bounce, but Memphis has enough in the tank to turn a close game into a 8- or 9-point win at this point in the tourney.

(3) Texas A&M
Yeah, I know - say what? A&M's a perfectly good team, but I'm worried about their postseason experience and that they'll basically be playing a road game. I do want to get on the record here and say that if Louisville loses this game, A&M will probably go to the Final Four (as it gets 2 in San Antonio after this, one against a Memphis team they should beat ....and one against - well, tell you in a minute.)

Out in Sweet 16
(6) Louisville
Memphis' path of getting the easiest route possible to the Final Four continues. It would've been better for them had Creighton won their first round game.

(5) Tennessee
Ah, thought I'd go for the Memphis / Tennessee rematch? I'd love to, I'm not going to deny it. However, Tennessee has almost no inside presence and also no answer at all for Oden. Lofton would need to score 35+ for the Vols to win the game - with the Smiths going for at least 15 each, and while I certainly wouldn't put it past him (and them), I think it ends here.

Just Missing the Final Four
(2) Memphis
Finally ran into a team that ....well, is good.

Coming from the South: (1) Ohio State

Texas / Kansas: Running Diary of the Big 12 Final

So why on earth am I doing a running diary of this game? There's a few reasons:
1 - Watching Kevin Durant play when he's on is incredible, and it's certainly worth writing about.
2 - Having not seen much of Kansas this year (boo on me for not following a title contender that closely), I wanted a record of how Kansas operates.
3 - After watching Texas blow a 12-point halftime lead at Kansas last week, I was curious to see how the game would unfold with more on the line. The answer: almost the exact same.

3:12: Texas opens with a steal, a Brandon Rush block on the other end, Texas offensive board, another Rush block, with yet a third block on the next Texas possession. This may be a recurring theme, even though Texas scored.

3:15: Durant hits a 3. He follows this up on the next posession by launching a 70-foot pass to the Texas cheerleaders - Kansas ball. He follows that up by hitting another 3. Durant 8, Kansas' Julian Wright 6. What other players?

3:17: First TV timeout. Durant looks sharp so far, Texas has dominated the glass early. It'll be a while before Rick Barnes forgets Durant plays for the Longhorns at this rate - at least 10 minutes. We learn Durant got the ball on 67% of the second half possessions in Texas' semifinal win over Oklahoma St., which seems both low (he's great) and high (that's still a ton). 10-6 Texas.

3:21: Texas' Token Tall White Guy (TTWG - name: Connor Atchley) hits a 2. 14-6 Texas, and we're looking a lot like last week already. Whoops, make that 17-6 Texas - Kansas calls time to stop the bleeding.

3:23: Kansas still can't buy a basket - Durant 9, Wright 6.

3:24 - I think Texas is up on the boards by about 10,000 - 2 right now. Durant 11, Kansas 6, and it's looking ugly.

3:26: Durant goes to the bench for a breather before the under 12 TV TO. Kansas responds with a 2-0 run to cut the lead to 21-8. Boy, it'd be nice if Texas kept that effort up for the entire game, wouldn't it? (Note: foreshadowing) KU's first task in coming back: outscore Durant, then worry about catching the entire team.

3:29: Video package of Big 12 games - three things omitted: 1 - Okla. St.'s horrid road performance (which will be why they don't get a bid), 2 - Texas eating it against KU in the second half, 3 - the Big 12 North (not counting Kansas).

3:31: Durant 14, KU 10.

3:32: KU with yet another block - about the only thing they're doing well so far. If Durant wasn't such a (pick your modifier: force, freak of nature) they'd have a shot at shutting him down, too. Durant 16, KU 10.

3:33: Kansas with yet another timeout - 27-10 Texas. Kansas needs to get on the boards, although since they've come back from worse than this (they did last week), I don't think they're despairing.

3:36: Durant 19, KU 10. Also, there's no such thing as a 10-point play - thanks, Fran Frischilla.

3:38: Kansas with a 3 to cut the Texas lead to ...32-13. We're under 8 now, and we got there by the TTWG stepping on the inbounds line after said 3. It'll be Kansas' ball again, and we're reaching the point where Durant will probably not see the ball again for the remainder of the half.

3:41: KU turnover. So much for that possession.

3:42: Sideline interview disclosure - Celtics' GM Danny Ainge was at the Texas game last night. That sound you heard was Bill Simmons screaming in glee.

3:44: Durant 22, KU 17. Oops.

3:45: Durant 22, KU 19. Comeback! Augustin with an airball - watch him jack up the next 6 shots.

3:46: Durant 22, KU 21. They're almost equaling Durant, but they're still down by 14. Texas really hasn't done much lately.

3:47: Texas calls TO. It's still 35-24 UT, but it's notable for a few reasons: Kansas has looked sharp, Durant hasn't seen the ball much, and somewhere in here Augustin picked up his second foul. Also, Kansas has finally outscored Durant.

3:48: Oops. Durant got a shot (finally) but was blocked; Mason gets the block and drives for 2, making it 37-24 Texas. Kansas is still starting to come around, even counting that last possession.

3:51: Fun times - on ESPN's online broadcast, you can occasionally catch stuff on the announcers' mics that the regular viewers won't get.

3:53: Under 3 minutes - Augustin has been out since about 6 minutes to go. Backtracking a bit, that'd be somewhere around 3:44 in realtime, which is not coincedentally when Kansas started to go on their run. Texas is looking bad offensively.

3:54: Durant steps on the line - 2nd Texas turnover in as many posessions. Durant seems reluctant to take charge offensively, even though the guys who taking charge (Justin Mason, A. J. Abrams, Damion James) shouldn't be.

3:56: Yet another Texas TO - technically Durant's fault, but Mason really shouldn't go into a windup before launching a 120 mph pass at Durant's chest.

3:58: We close the first half like we started it - with a Kansas block. At the half, it's 39-34 UT, and it absolutely shouldn't be that close. Augustin was out and Durant didn't do anything once Augustin left the game.

4:18: After a spirited KU sequence, Sasha Kaun goes down hard, elbowed in the face by James and then falling 9 feet onto his back. Rough time, but he's fine.

4:19: Kansas ends the comedy of errors (no, I didn't write down what they were - yes, that's stupid) with a 3.

4:20: Darrell Arthur goes down hard after an Augustin drive (no foul on either end). Durant? MIA.

4:21: Check that, he just got a Wade-style foul called in his favor. He respondes by charging on the next possession - even though that one was a blocking foul.

4:25: Odd sequence with a ton of bad shots, outlet passes, and dribble drives. Exciting, but it'd be nice if they scored. Durant draws another foul to take us into the first TV TO. Kansas is starting to have some serious fouling issues. 49-42 Texas.

4:28: Durant hits both FTs to go to 24 on the afternoon.

4:30: 2nd half has been very sloppy - of course, as soon as I write that, KU (someone) dishes a nice pass to Wright for the slam.

4:31: Durant's MIA again - when TTWG has to slam it, it's gonna be a long half. 53-49 Texas.

4:32: Announcers are calling out Barnes for being too quiet on the sidelines (it should be noted that Frischilla calls him out, then backtracks so hastily he leaves skid marks) - almost as if he does nothing other than stand around and watch his team blow late leads. Meanwhile, Bill Self has a plan for Durant: beat the hell out of him. Wright picks up his 4th foul.

4:35: Yet another foul on KU at the 11:54 mark - 55-52 Texas, and I'm wondering a few things right now:
1 - will Durant take over at some point? Right now, he's content with getting fouled and letting Abrams and James take bad 15-footers.
2 - will Kansas lose some key players to fouls?
3 - will the "hack the phenom" strategy work? Kansas is damn close.

4:39: Only hot player on the court right now: Sherron Collins. 55-54 Texas.

4:40: Durant answers with a fallaway jumper. Glad to see you again! He's taken the last 2 - no, 3 - shots. 1/3.

4:45: Craig Winder (who? Texas' only senior) hits 1 out of 2 FTs. 58-56 Texas.

4:46: Darnell Jackson picks up his fourth foul - that's two Jayhawks with 4 now. Durant with a lob layup on a pass from James - Durant's got 30 now.

4:47: Brandon Rush with a block - just kidding, he hit a 3. Durant tries a 3 at the other end but misses, Kaun with a great ball recovery, leading to a foul on the Chalmers drive to take us to the under 8 TV TO. 60-59 Texas.

4:51: 61-60 Kansas! Chalmers hits both of them, and Kansas gets their first lead since it was 4-2.

4:52: I've been slagging on Durant for not being more involved, but I haven't given Brandon Rush nearly enough credit, who's played well on both ends of the court, especially defensively. He picks off a pass which leads to another Texas foul - 63-60 Kansas.

4:55: Abrams with a rushed (missed) 3, Collins with a miss on a drive, James with a turnover on a Texas possession that never gets on track, Chalmers with a charge - 4 on him now, too. Feel the excitement! Big 12 basketball!

4:56: Rush hits a couple of FTs to push the lead to 67-62 Kansas - at just under 6 minutes left, we'll be seeing a lot more of that the rest of the way.

4:58: Collins with an awesome drive and reverse layup. Augustin gets tied up - Texas uses their arrow. 69-65 Kansas.

5:02: Durant called for a push - 69-66 Kansas still. Exciting.

5:06: Durant with the last 5 Texas points and a block on the other end - tie game @ 71. 2:30 left. About time Durant started to step up.

5:07: Abrams with a steal, Winder with a putback, Self with a TO. Texas up by 2.

5:08: Dear lord. You'll read about this elsewhere, I'm sure, but Jackson went to save the ball and basically threw it at the backboard - only it bounced off the rim straight to Chalmers, who then proceeds to hit a 3-point play.

5:09: Durant draws yet another foul, and is now to 37 points on the day (1:42 left). Texas by 1, 75-74.

5:11: Abrams with a 3. That's 78-74 Texas with 1:01 left, and Kansas is in trouble ... although if I could choose to be down 4 to any Top-15 team with a minute left, it'd be Texas.

5:16: Winder hits 1 of 2 FTs again, making it 79-76 Texas. For some reason here, UT calls a timeout with 21.6s left. I don't get this; Kansas has used all their timeouts, you know they're going for a three here - why let Self have time to draw up a play?

5:18: Sure enough, Chalmers hits a 3! Tied at 78 with 13.8s left, and UT calls time again. Not surprisingly, they're setting up something for Durant, although my previous wondering of why on earth you'd call time at 21.6s left seems valid now.

5:20: Durant misses. We're going to OT. ESPN celebrates by running the same video package they ran in the first half. Big 12 basketball! 6 exciting games all year!

5:23: James shows his clutchness by getting fouled, missing a bunny, then missing both FTs. Go Texas! As a contrast, Wright nails a jumper making it 81-79 Kansas.

5:25: Superintendent Chalmers fouls out (eh, it was bound to happen) after fouling Abrams on a 3 (okay, Chalmers is an idiot). He gets bailed out as Abrams only makes 2 of 3, but we're still tied.

5:27: Kansas and Texas open up a joint bricklaying venture, and James - who's had an awesome OT already - dribbles the ball off his foot out of bounds.

5:28: Russell Robinson with a J to push it to 83-81 Kansas.

5:29: Foul on Durant after not touching the ball on the previous possession. 84-81 Kansas.

5:30: Augustin's 3 is blocked (Rush? not sure). Missed J @ KU's end, still 84-81. Rush has about 85 blocks today. 22.4s left.

5:34: Augustin drives on Jackson - but Jackson blocks it to himself! Texas has to foul here, and Bill Russell is invoked - cleanup on Bill Simmons' couch. Cleanup on the couch.

5:35: Abrams hits a 3! 86-84 Kansas, 8.3s left. Durant? Who?

5:36: Kudos to Fran for calling a diamond press on Texas's part, which is exactly what happens. Robinson (67% FT) fouled, but hits both. 88-84 Kansas, and they use their last TO.

5:40: Durant misses a 3, Kansas runs out the clock. 88-84 is the final.

So what did we learn about those three questions way up at the beginning of this post?
1 - Durant was absolutely on at the beginning of the game, but a lot of the offense wasn't run through him later on. What didn't help matters was Rush doing a great job on him in the second half and some poor looks. Possible sign of concern here: is he turning it off for periods of time?
2 - Kansas looks damn good right now; their D kept them in the game early, and they've got a very balanced scoring attack. Kudos on the blocks, too.
3 - I kind of already answered this at the beginning anyway, but there were a few reasons:
A) James and Abrams seem to enjoy shooting the ball, even when they shouldn't. James got the ball way too often in OT, and while I didn't keep a good record of it, didn't get many good looks at the basket at all during the game.
B) Not having Augustin in hurt; I was talking with the other contributor here yesterday, and we both decided that even after Augustin picked up his second foul in the first half, you leave him in the game and tell him, "Look, play soft on D, but run the offense. We need you out there to make sure nobody goes insane. We'll rotate toward you on D if we need to." Abrams, James, etc. can't run the offense.
C) An extension of the first two reasons - youth. Augustin and Durant are the only guys that don't really play like freshmen.

Remember this game when you're staring at that Texas / UNC matchup.

The cost of "Veteran Presense" - when it's not really needed.

There's a long-held belief in baseball that the idea of having veteran presence on a team is inherently valuable. It makes sense in theory - after all, if you have a group of talented youngsters, it can at worst be useful to bring in a guy that's been there before. Whether he's acting as an example for the kids or telling them what they should be doing, there's at least a moderately proveable correlation here.

However, like any idea when carried to extremes, it quickly falls apart. Case in point? Ramon Ortiz signing with the Twins for $3.1 million. There's a fine line between "bringing in helpful veterans" and "squeleching the youngsters". The Twins, for those unfamiliar with the organization, have a pretty good group of young pitching. There's the obvious one (Johan Santana), the even younger lefty (Francisco Liriano), and there's a host of young righties (Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, Scott Baker) that I can all recall off the top of my head. That's enough for a very, very young rotation - and I can understand wanting a guy who's had more than, oh, 25 big-league starts in there. That's doubly true given Liriano's likelihood of missing the 2007 season with surger and rehab.

However, the Twins already have Carlos Silva. Silva's not great - his calling card is excellent control, and over the course of his career he's been about average (101 ERA+). Again, that's not great, but when you have the talent that the Twins do, you would prefer it if the vets largely stay out of the way, right? That's what Silva does - and he's not a great player, don't make the mistake of thinking I'm saying that. He's either average or slightly below average (if you like your starters to strike people out, he's not your guy). So if we replace Liriano with Silva, now we have a rotation that looks something like:

Santana, Bonser, Silva, Garza, Baker

That's not bad. It's young, cheap, and effective. When you're operating on a shoestring budget, it's as good as gold to find that kind of rotation.

So now we add Ramon Ortiz to the mix. What's he offer? Really, not a whole hell of a lot. Think a worse version of Silva (93 ERA+) that will eat about 190 innings below league average. Great. That's useful if you're going to be looking at an innings shortage. However, the Twins aren't going to need that - they have at least 5 pitchers (already mentioned), plus a few other arms in AAA that they could call up who would be much cheaper than Ortiz. They'd probably be less effective, but whatever.

Basically, what it boils down to is Scott Baker v. Ramon Ortiz. Now, I'll admit I'm biased here for two reasons:

1 - I saw Scott Baker shut down the Durham Bulls for 8 1/3 innings two years ago, so that's my memory there.
2 - I saw Ramon Ortiz suck last year for the Nats.

So, let's compare. Scott Baker has a career ERA+ of 86 - worse than Ortiz, and Baker sucked last year (ERA+ of 70). However, Ortiz wasn't much better last year (ERA+ of 79 in a ton more innings) - and when coupled with 2005, that's about 350 innings of 81 ERA+ ball, give or take. That's worth about $2.7 million more than Baker? Never mind that Ortiz is now past the peak age for a pitcher and will probably decline from hideous to god-awful here in the next couple of years - plus he's losing the RFK effect. Baker, meanwhile, will be 25 this year (still well in his growth phase). Why not give him the chance? At worst, he'll do what he did last year - which wasn't much worse than Ortiz's effort - but the odds seem to speak against that. At the worst, he's cheaper, which leaves more room to sign Santana to a long-term extension. I don't think any Twin fan would argue with that.

Anyway, the Twins' rotation now looks something like:

Santana, Bonser, Silva, Ortiz, Garza

And they're looking at signing Bruce Chen. If they do, you can repeat the above argument but put Matt Garza's name in place of Baker's. Let's hear it for Terry Ryan.

Washington Nationals 2k7: Hide the Women and Children

First off, I'll be honest here - I'm a huge fan of the Nationals, have been since they were the Expos back in '94. I've been following them for over half my life, and this might be one of the worst teams they've fielded. You know it's bad when you're considering a 95-loss season a success. Still, I can't help but follow them. The rest of this post will be dedicated to them, mostly as an analysis of the team for 2007 (like last year, I plan on doing this again this season; unlike last year, I'm starting in January) but also as a study for when truly bad teams have little to play for.

Infield & Catching
1st Base
Nick Johnson will play first - when he's healthy. Unfortunately, he won't be healthy to start the season thanks to recovery from fractured right femur and subsequent surgery (and surgery to fix the previous surgery), which means the Nats will be forced to turn elsewhere. It's likely 27-year-old-but-still-propect Larry Broadway will snatch up most of the early season at-bats until Johnson is healthy. When healthy, NJ provides great on-base skills, good power, and plus defense at first. Broadway has a passable skill set, but the biggest knock against him is that he's a little old to be getting his first shot at big-league playing time at 27. He'll function as a cheap stopgap until NJ returns to health - unless he performs well. Then he'll function as a cheap stopgap and provoke controversy when NJ gets healthy.

2nd Base
Thanks to the Vidro trade (and I do mean thanks - thanks, Bavasi!), Felipe Lopez will slide over from short to play 2nd on an everyday basis. His offensive skills are certainly much improved from where they were - on some level. If he's allowed to run, he'll certainly do so, but he struggled to show any real semblance of power once he was traded to the Nats. Defensively, he's not much to call home about, but he's better than (past a diving) Vidro, which has to count for something. His backup will be Bernie Castro, whose main attributes are 1) he's young and 2) he's cheap. Sense a trend yet?

Shortstop
The job is Cristian Guzman's. And when I say that it's his job, I mean that it's his - not even his to lose, really. If he was going to lose his job, that would've been back in 2005 back when he was putting up 456 ABs of .219 BA. He was out all of last year with a torn labrum, but looks to be back and healthy - don't celebrate too much. Offensively, there's really not much there - if you're lucky, you'll get a pedestrian offensive shortstop who'd be pretty good as long as we're talking 1985 or so. Defensively? Around average as well, maybe slightly worse. We'll see what it looks like, but still. Yech.

Third Base
It's tough for most Nats fans not to be happy talking about Ryan Zimmerman - and on this hellhole of a team, you can't blame them much. He's still young (22), but he's above-average defensively already and may provoke Scott Rolen comparisons before too long. Unfortunately, he may also be the third-best 3B in the division behind David Wright and Miguel Cabrera, but that's not his fault. He's still - at worst - above average in a league stacked with 3Bs, and at this point the sky's the limit for him.

Catcher
Brian Schneider had what seemed like a rough year at the plate, especially with his power. However, his power's really been decreasing over the last 4-5 years (check out his doubles and HR) and unless that returns he'll basically be a better defensive version of Guzman. That's normally scary enough to begin with, but if you already have the original Guz.... that's when problems start. Jesus Flores - a Rule V pick from the Mets - will back up. Not terrible, I guess. I mean, he's a backup C that will probably start 20-30 games or so. Whatever, he won't make or break the season, and he can't really perform much worse at the plate than Brandon Watson did last year. Whoopee.

Outfielders
Right Field
Austin Kearns will be the everyday RF, and as long as he's healthy he should provide about league-average production offensively. Defensively, he's above average - one of the better defenders in the NL. He hasn't been injured in two years, but I still remember his injury-plagued seasons before then. I'm probably unfairly biased with regard to his health; he'll be at worst adequate protection for Zimmerman and at least a small ray of offensive hope before the lineup plunges into the black abyss.

Center Field
The job's Nook Logan's. Why it's Logan's is anybody's guess, however. He brings a ton of speed and a hideous skill set beyond that - no average, no power, below average fielding. Sounds good enough for me, right? Evidently it's good enough for the Nats. Meanwhile, Ryan Church - who was perfectly fine last year but ran over Bodes' dog coming out of the parking lot on the first day of Spring Training - will get relegated to a backup role here. Alex Escobar is in the mix and will see PT, but probably not at the outset. Will produce when healthy, which is anybody's guess.

Left Field
This is an interesting case, and I think we're going to need to watch this closely (well, as closely as we can get with this team) once Spring Training gets underway. Right now it looks like Kory Casto's job (according to the Nats' official depth chart), but recent arrival Chris Snelling may play there as well. Snelling is like Escobar in one important way; chronically injured. He's also chronically out of options and on the 40-man roster, which would lead me to think he's getting PT. Both Escobar and Church are on the depth chart here too, although I'd say it's more than likely this will shake out over ST. Personal guess? Snelling and Escobar will play until they get injured, then Casto will get the job.

Bench Players
There's some weird NRIs out there - Tony Womack, Travis Lee, etc. It's certainly not surprising if they end up on the big-league team when they break camp. Same for D'Angelo Jimenez. Aside from them, there's the usual fare; we've already talked about Larry Broadway and I mentioned Castro a while ago, and they're very likely to break with the Nats. The outfield bench is going to mostly consist of some combination of whomever isn't playing in the OF among all those CF/RF candidates (Logan, Church, Snelling, Casto, and Escobar, for those of you attempting to score at home). Rule V pick Jesus Flores has been mentioned already. That'll just about cover it - there's some interesting potential here, but it's more than likely it won't really amount to anything. Don't get too excited.

Starting Pitching
Ye gods, this is when the fun begins. I worked this out a while ago, but it still stands. Here's your possibilities.

John Patterson - obviously the ace when healthy. The keyword here: healthy. Averaged about 80 days on the DL over the last 3 years (yes, it's biased because of 2006), so breaking that out over a season.... that's probably about 20 starts.
Tim Redding - should make the club out of ST, and among Nats circles that I'm a part of, he's been one of those "quietly good signings". Of course, he's also been the only signing so far. If healthy, they'll probably toss him out there every 5th day.
Billy Traber - for some reason he's fallen out of favor with Nats management, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in the bullpen for most/all of the season. He may end up in Rauch's role from 2006. (Lord knows they'll need bullpen arms anyway.)
Chris Michilak - is this guy old? I haven't found any mention of him in the rotation anywhere beyond Rotoworld. Even the Nats don't have him on the 40-man roster.
Jason Bergmann - see Traber.
Mike O'Connor - probably a default #3. Unspectacular, but he's ML-serviceable if he keeps his walk rate down and stays healthy. Look for 20-25 starts, as ...really, who else are they going to bring up? (note: will not be ready for Spring Training)
Shawn Hill - better skill set than O'Connor, but will probably end up as #4. See above.
Joel Hanrahan - probably won't open the season in the rotation, and he definitely won't if a couple of other things happen (more on that in a minute). If and when injuries strike, he's ...eh, 2nd or 3rd in line to get starts, I guess. Will flirt with 15 starts.
Ramon Ortiz - the Nats just made an offer to him, and since I'm guessing teams aren't knocking down his door for 200 innings of 6.00 ERA ball, he'll probably sign with the Nats. I'd expect slightly better, but not by much.
Jason Simontacchi - see Hanrahan.

In addition, the Nats have made offers to Ortiz, Armas, Steve Trachsel, Jorge Sosa, and Jerome Williams. Of those, if *any* of them sign they'll be in the rotation. Obviously Armas and Trachsel have injury concerns attached to them; I'd only remotely consider Williams out of that crew. Tomo Ohka is still floating around, too.

A couple of other names I've heard thrown around but haven't seen here yet:

Beltran Perez - will fill the 5th spot?
Matt Chico - one of the prospects (hey, this is the Nats system, he's a prospect) acquired in the Livan deal. Since the Kasten Plan revolves around not spending a lot of ML-level money this season, Chico in the majors wouldn't surprise me a lot. Is he ready? No. But the Nats could easily throw him out there for 20 starts and let him mature on his own - and leave it to Randy St. Claire to make sure his psyche stays intact.

A rough guess on the number of starts everyone will make:
25+:
Ortiz, Sosa, Williams, Ohka (if any of them sign with the Nats)
Redding
20+:
Patterson, Armas, Trachsel (sign / health)
O'Connor, Hill, Redding
15+:
Simontacchi, Hanrahan, Chico, Perez

That really doesn't help a whole lot, but it's at least a rough attempt to work out who they'll be throwing up to pitch.

Bullpen
Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch will do at least a passable job of protecting the 6 leads they get all season. (Sorry, excessive pessimism.) Aside from them, there's enough spare rotation fodder and discarded parts to put together a decent bullpen, I'd guess. Bergmann and Traber will probably end up here, and it remains to be seen if Ryan Wagner can stand a chance of living up to any of his potential. First step: stop allowing baserunners to score way above the league average. Emilio Fruto was the other guy in the Vidro trade, and he did quite well in moving from AA to AAA last year. Nothing special in absolute terms, but he'd be a reliable option here. Luis Ayala and Saul Rivera will probably show up, maybe Micah Bowie.

Bottom Line
Don't expect much. The bullpen shouldn't be horrid, the infield won't be terrible when healthy, and the outfield will at least have 1 1/2 quality players most days. However, there's really only half a lineup there (Lopez, Zimmerman, Johnson, Kearns, maybe Church/Snelling/Escobar when healthy and if you're generous) with the rest of it being either bad or abysmal, and good luck trying to figure out who the hell is going to start. That alone will doom the Nats to 100 losses - if they're lucky, 95.

A lengthy dissertation on the New Mexico Bowl

Really. This game kicks off at 4:30 and it involves two teams you're probably not going to watch. One team hasn't beaten a 1-A team with a winning record all year. The other team lost to Portland State.

Go spend some time with your family, come back at night. I'm not even going to waste my time on this game - and given some of the other dreck I've already spent time on, that should warn you. Stay away.

Don't get up early for the Papa John's Bowl

South Florida @ East Carolina - Papa John's Bowl, 12/23

How South Florida Got Here
Someone's gotta finish 4th in the Big East. This year had the trio of WVU, Louisville, and Rutgers - but right below them was an 8-4 USF team. Aside from that, it was a pretty typical season for a second-tier team in a major conference. You pull off an upset (@ West Virginia), you lose a couple of question marks (@ Kansas, @ Cincy) and lose to the guys you should lose to. Beat everyone else and that's good enough for a 1/1 bowl in some leagues. Not so much here. Blame the Big East tie-ins if you want to.
Best Win: 24-19 @ West Virginia, 11//25
Worst Loss: 6-23 @ Cincinnati, 10/22

How South Florida Operates
Offensively, this team will go as far as QB Matt Goethe will carry them. He's their leading passer - and their leading rusher. Aside from that, they don't do any one thing particularly well; their scoring D is only allowing about 18 points per game and their pass D is good enough for second in the conference (behind only Rutgers). However, in this league average is good enough for 8-4.

How East Carolina Got Here
Who knew C-USA had at least 4 bowl tie-ins? That's really the long and short of it in a lot of ways. They sucked coming out of the gate (2-4), although they did have a win over Virginia, who beat Miami. After that, they did well, only losing a close game to Rice - and beating NC State (which probably sealed Amato's departure). This is good enough to qualify for a banner year at ECU, and going 2-2 in games against schools from major conferences is a pretty impressive feat, even if both of those wins were against subpar ACC schools.
Best Win: 20-17 @ Southern Miss, 10/28
Worst Loss: 12-17 @ UAB, 9/9

How East Carolina Operates
ECU is predictated on the strength of their defense (3rd in the conference). Calling their offense average for C-USA is a bit of an overstatement, as they're not very good at moving the ball. However, they have a solid pass D and their rushing D isn't terrible - remember that they kept Steve Slaton in check when they played the Mountaineers. In addition, they're also +5 on the season in turnover margin, which isn't too impressive - but USF is also -5 on the season, so there could be something there.

5 Things to Watch When USF Has the Ball (or is punting)
1: Matt Goethe's dual-threat capability. Obviously. He's the Bulls leading rusher and their leading passer pretty much any way you slice it. He's got to play well for the Bulls to have any shot of winning.
2: Ricky Ponton. Who's he? He's a SO RB that came on strong in the second half of the season after not playing in the first half of the season - he's also the only guy that might run for more than Goethe will; if he doesn't, then the load will fall to Benjamin Williams to pick up the pace as the second rushing threat.
3: Taurus Johnson and Earl Randolph. I'm normally fond of noting at least the first two receivers, and these guys pretty much define the "deep threat/possession" guys I'm looking for in an offense. Randolph is the possession guy, Johnson's the deep threat - if that really counts with the Bulls.
4: Amarri Jackson's playmaking ability. The Bulls will line him up under center a few times a game at least, have him run, maybe have him pass, put him in the slot; basically they'll try and get the ball in his hands a few times and hope he can do something exciting. It's a useful type of player to have.
5: No special teams. Simply put, they suck - USF is the worst punting and FG kicking team in the Big East. Maybe it has something to do with Florida. This doesn't bode well for the Bulls if it's close late.

5 Things to Watch When ECU Has the Ball (or is punting)
1: James Pinkney's ability to force the action. ECU's offense has been stagnant all year, so if there's going to be any major offensive movement, it's going to begin and end with Pinkney.
2: Brandon Fractious and Chris Johnson. It's tough to say which one of these guys is the change of pace back - I don't think either one of them is, really. If you think of them as a two-headed monster then they're good for about 75 yards a game, which isn't much. They need to combine for over 100 yards, which has happened only 4 times all year - and 3 of those were when one of them went over 100 yards on his own.
3: Aundrae Allison's ability to make the passing game go. There's not much without him (more on them in a minute), but Allison makes the passing game go. He's got the most receptions, most yards, most yards per game (a natural extension), and the most TDs. If he's shut down, it's over.
4: Who steps up to #2? There's a bunch of candidates - Phillip Henry, Steven Rogers, Kevin Roach, Davon Drew - but nobody has emerged as a credible threat. Drew is a short-yardage TE, Henry is a largely unimpressive #2 by default, and Rogers and Roach are very similar players (Rogers is more of a deep threat). Force me to pick a guy that'll step up and I'll say Henry, but realistically two of these guys need to have a good game - at least - for ECU to have a shot.
5: Hidden yardage. Remember how I said that USF punting sucks? ECU is the opposite; they're nearly tied for best in C-USA at just over 42 yards a punt which will net well if they're lucky enough to find themselves in a defensive battle late.

What to Expect in the Game
Well, if you looked at the game and said, "Hey, it's Big East against C-USA, I'm going Big East" - you're totally right. I don't see much reason why ECU should stay in the game as they haven't faced a dual-threat capability like Goethe since Pat White, who killed them through the air. Goethe's a better passer. Now, if ECU can luck out and keep it close, they have more of a chance than you'd expect; they'll win the hidden yardage game and they're at least decent kicking FGs. However, unless it's 0-0 in the 4th, I don't think that'll be a factor.

If you go to New Orleans for the New Orleans Bowl, don't leave the French Quarter

Rice @ Troy - New Orleans Bowl, 12/22

How Rice Got Here
Talk about a rebounding doormat. After starting off the season 1-5 - with the only win being over perennial doormat Army - Rice was, well, looking like Rice. However, nobody told Rice they were actually Rice and they've won 6 straight since then, all against conference competition. It's tough to fault them for most of their losses, too; 3 of their losses were to BCS teams (including Florida State back when we thought they were still decent) and a fourth was to C-USA champ Houston. Plus they're Rice - you think they care that they're only 7-5? They're in a bowl!
Best Win: 41-38 @ Tulsa, 11/11
Worst Loss: 24-38 @ Tulane, 10/7

How Rice Operates
They're greater than the sum of their parts, that's for sure. They'll play close, but neither their D nor their O is much to call home about (they're about average across the board yard-wise). However, they're 3rd in C-USA in scoring average and lead the conference in turnover margin. Maybe sometime it's better to be lucky than good.

How Troy Got Here
Someone's gotta win the Sun Belt - why shouldn't it be the team that's turned into the Fresno State of the Sun Belt? Troy's made a name for themselves playing most everywhere at any given time, and this year was no different. Heck, they should've beaten Florida State early in the year - that being said, they didn't; they fell off the national radar after getting blown out by Nebraska 56-0. Since then, they've very quietly whipped up on the dregs of Division 1-A, going 6-1 in-conference and beating MTSU to win the Sun Belt conference title.
Best Win: 21-20 @ Middle Tennessee, 11/25
Worst Loss: 0-56 @ Nebraska, 9/23

How Troy Operates
Kind of like Rice, there's no one thing they do well. However, unlike Rice they're also above conference average in most categories (instead of defining the average like Rice does). In the Sun Belt, that's good enough for 6-1.

5 Things to Watch When Rice Has the Ball (or is punting)
1: Chase Clement vs. 60% completion percentage. Clement only has a 57.7% completion percentage on the season, and the Rice offense is basically a watered-down version of the Texas Tech offense (witness his 21-5 TD-INT ratio). He should have success against the Troy pass D (which is below average for the Sun Belt), but he also needs to hit his targets.
2: Quentin Smith. Smith is both a rushing and receiving threat - he's good for around 120 yards of non-return offense, and with any kind of gimmick massive-receiver offense it's critical to have a running back that can cause chaos catching the ball.
3: Clement's two-way ability. Clement doubles as Rice's second-leading rusher, and Troy hasn't seen someone as successful as a combo QB since - arguably - Reggie Ball. Of course, Clement is probably a better QB than Ball, too - certainly a better passer.
4: Jarett Dillard. Dillard has about as many receiving yards as everyone else on the Owls ... combined. He's one of the most explosive receivers in C-USA - and because he's such a critical part of the offense, Troy has to make sure he's shut down. Going back to the Troy-GT game, he's probably the Calvin Johnson comparable - but Troy shut down Johnson in the passing game.
5: Joel Armstrong. Armstrong is an interesting character; he's got some obvious talent and Rice will look to use him in any way they can. This includes as a receiver, a running back - and as a QB. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few Clement / Armstrong packages.

5 Things to Watch When Troy Has the Ball (or is punting)
1: Turnovers. Troy is -9 on the year and Rice is +10. Since both of these teams are tested-but-flawed, Troy should be able to rebound from losing the turnover battle if it's -1 in their favor, but if it's -2 or -3 .... I'm not so sure. FWIW, Rice is better at forcing fumbles than forcing picks.
2: Kenny Cattouse. He's Troy's primary rusher, and since the Rice rush D is horrid (114th in the nation), he should be primed for a 100+ yard game. Now if he can actually rush for over 100 yards, that'll be something.
3: Will Gary Banks actually pass? He's played in all 12 games for Troy (one of 6 players that's had a passing attempt), but only has 4 attempts. Chances are they'll use Banks for a drive or two to spell their primary QB - more on him in a sec - and just rely on Cattouse and Anthony Jones.
4: Omar Haugabook. Like Clement, he's a two-way threat. Unlike Clement, Haugabook isn't really effective running the ball (1.7 ypc). However, he should be able to get positive yardage against this rush D.
5: Gary Banks' other side. Think of Banks as a mix between Armstrong and Dillard and that's about his use. He doesn't have a lot of rushes - and we've already talked about his passing ability, or lack thereof - but Troy will at least use him as a diversion when he's not lined up at WR. When he is, he'll act like a possession receiver - albeit a possession receiver that scores.

What to Expect in the Game
You'll fall asleep. Honestly, my recommendation here is watch when Rice has the ball and go make dinner when Troy has the ball. Don't get me wrong - good on both teams to make it to a bowl game - but this game isn't exactly a shining beacon of great play. Clement should perform better than Haugabook and Rice should win.

The Las Vegas Bowl (or why the wheels fell off Oregon's bandwagon and the bandwagon promptly plowed into a tree)

(19) BYU @ Oregon - Las Vegas Bowl, 12/21

How BYU Got Here
It's tough to fault a team that goes undefeated in conference play, as that should be a sign you're at least better than your competition. That's what BYU did. After losing two of their first threee games (@ Arizona, @ BC - while BC was in their Luckiest Team in the Nation phase), they reboudned to go undefeated from then until then end of the year. All of their conference games were played after the first two games, which has quietly given BYU a pretty impressive run.
Best Win: 31-17 @ TCU, 9/28
Worst Loss: 13-16 @ Arizona, 9/2

How BYU Operates
BYU is known for their great passing game - and this year isn't any different. John Beck leads the MWC in passing (and is comfortably 4th in the nation) at just under 320 yards per game. However, it's not all about the passing game; BYU has 2 of the top 12 conference rushers - Curtis Brown (2nd, 74.2 ypg) and Fui Vakapuna (12th, 40.2 ypg) - as well. As a result, BYU is also 1st in the MWC, scoring 36.7 ppg.

Amazingly, BYU's defense isn't nearly as bad as you'd think given the high-octane offense they have. They're only allowing just under 16 ppg and they're about average in the MWC in both rushing and passing D. In addition, they're one of the few teams where turnover margin makes for an appreciable difference; they're +14 on the year, 4th in the nation.

How Oregon Got Here
Sometimes you're on top of the world. And sometimes you fall off the top of the world, land on a tree, fall off the tree, and hit every branch on the way down. That describes Oregon's season pretty well. They started off 4-0, including a 34-33 win over Oklahoma that you might've heard about (at great length, depending on where you were). Cal killed that streak pretty dead and Washington State killed any shot Oregon had of winning the Pac-10. However, they were still 7-2 going into the USC game with a good shot of going 9-3 at worst. Of course, this is when the wheels fell off; the Ducks lost to USC, Arizona, and Oregon State to close out the year. Now they're playing before Christmas - ouch. Is it a coincedence Brady Leaf had a ton of playing time in those three games? That's an exercise left to the reader.
Best Win: 34-33 v. Oklahoma, 9/16 - and if you don't think that's an actual victory, we'll go with 48-13 @ Arizona St., 9/30
Worst Loss: 10-37 v. Arizona, 11/18

How Oregon Operates
Good luck trying to find fault in the offense when it's performing well. It's pretty much the Dennis Dixon and Johnathan Stewart Show - but you could do worse than that; Stewart is 5th in the Pac-10 in rushing (80 ypg) and Dixon is 6th in passing (183.7 ypg). Dixon's a two-way threat as well, rushing for 35.6 ypg. However, there's going to be a weak point in their game, and it's a pretty glaring weak point: they're allowing 25.6 points per game and allowing nearly 150 yards on the ground. However, their pass D is still great - 1st in the Pac-10, 8th in the nation. Another weak point: they're -10 in turnover margin on the season. Of course, this also isn't even remotely mentioning the fact that both Dixon and his backup (Brady Leaf) have spent the last three games sucking.

5 Things to Watch When BYU Has the Ball (or is punting)
1: John Beck's effectiveness against the Oregon secondary. This will be the key matchup for BYU; if they win this, they'll probably win. Otherwise, who knows - it's certainly possible for BYU to win, but it's a lot harder. Food for thought: John David Booty - the leading passer in the Pac-10 - only passed for 176 yards against Oregon. John Beck passed for 313 yards against Wyoming (best pass D in the MWC).
2: Curtis Brown @ Fui Vakapuna vs. the record books. Well, by "record books" I mean "Oregon's front 7", but you get the idea. They haven't been able to stop most teams anyway, and the teams they did stop - Washington and Oregon State - don't have great running games. If Arizona (whose offense sucks) can run up 37 on you, what does that mean when you're facing an offense that can actually normally score that much?
3: Curtis Brown and the two-way effect. Brown is also their leading receiver (in terms of receptions, not yards), which should mean that he'll get his yards. Oregon will probably put a LB on him at all times to limit the damage he can do taking screens out of the backfield (based on his receptions, that'll be 4-5 times over the course of a game), and it'll be up to Brown to shake him and pop a big run.
4: Jonny Harline and the Oregon secondary. Harline is BYU's leading receiver, and it's not even close; he's also their leading TD man. Harline has to make a couple of big plays against the Oregon D in order to have a shot to win; McKay Jacobson is a good secondary receiver, but he's not the possession threat (with deep potential) that Harline is.
5: Kickoffs and punts. Although BYU hasn't run either a punt or a kickoff back for a TD, they've done well in the field position game (not quite the top of the MWC, but close), and if they can do that again here, that'll be another 20-30 yards that their offense won't have to cover.

5 Things to Watch When Oregon Has the Ball (or is punting)
1: Dennis Dixon vs. Brady Leaf. I'll be honest - I haven't been following Oregon much this year. However, it's kind of hard to miss the issues there; Dixon fell off the table against Washington State and hasn't gotten better. Of course, Leaf hasn't been great either. One of them has to step it up.
2: Jonathan Stewart vs. BYU's 8th man. I've got to think that BYU will just shove 8 in the box until either Dixon or Leaf can prove to be a credible passing threat, so it's up to Stewart to consistently make guys miss in the open field in order for Oregon's offense to do anything.
3: Jaison Williams' ability to get open. BYU's pass D isn't great, but since there's some QB troubles, it's up to Williams to force separation. He's Oregon's leading receiver - and it *really* isn't close with him. He's going for nearly 90 yards per game and about 6 catches as well. He needs to do that against BYU as well - and he should be able to.
4: Kent, Rosario, and Paysinger: who steps up? Those three receivers are largely interchangeable for the guy who lines up opposite Williams. Kent has had the biggest games - but both were in losses, Rosario has been the most consistent, and Paysinger had two big games in a row - but those were in the middle of the season. The signs would point to Kent being the most likely to have a true breakout game, but as long as at least one of them emerges as a credible threat, Williams should have a good shot. If two of them can draw BYU defenders, then Stewart should play well as a result (since three recievers will probably draw 4 defenders, leaving Stewart only needing to beat 7 in the box ... you can figure out the rest).
5: The turnover battle. I talked about this briefly earlier, but we'll revisit it here. BYU isn't the best at forcing fumbles, but they're normally good for at least 1 INT a game. Meanwhile, Oregon both coughs it up and lets it rip. Teams that are good at forcing turnovers perform well above their norms against Oregon. As a result, I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon throws a couple of picks and coughs the ball up once over the course of the game. That may be significant.

What to Expect in the Game
When I first looked at this game, I figured Oregon would walk. However, looking a little deeper at the stats and team performances, I'm not so sure of that. If Dixon can return to his early-season form then all bets are off, but I'm not sure that can happen. If that doesn't happen, BYU should carry this; their defense will at least force a couple of turnovers and their running game should at least be decent enough to pull off the win.

It's the most you'll ever read about the Poinsettia Bowl

Northern Illinois @ (25) TCU - Poinsettia Bowl, 12/19

How Northern Illinois Got Here
Aside from the obvious (on the legs of Garrett Wolfe), it was a relatively up-and-down season for the Huskies. The MAC doesn't get a ton of credit for being an even conference, but it is; the talent level obviously isn't that of the major conferences, but they've also had 5 different champions in the last 5 years. (But that's another post in itself.) NIU opened with two losses against Ohio teams (Ohio State and Ohio), but after that they rolled off 4 consecutive wins. Of course, the team performs only as well as Wolfe does, and he struggled though the middle of the season - and the Huskies lost 3 of 4, which pretty much killed any chances they had of going to a decent bowl. Still, they rebounded well by winning their last two, handing Central Michigan their only MAC loss of the season.
Best Win: 31-10 v. Central Michigan, 11/17
Worst Loss: 13-17 v. Toledo, 11/7

How NIU Operates
When you have the leading rusher in the country in Garrett Wolfe, you're probably going to do everything you can to make sure he gets a lot of carries. That's about the long and short of the offensive gameplan. QB Phil Horvath isn't terrible; he doesn't pass a whole lot (predictable), but he's at least decently effective when he does. Defensively, they ... don't do much, really. They have a good rush D (2nd in the MAC), but they're only in the top third nationally. Their pass defense is horrid, though - next to last in the MAC and 104th nationally.

How TCU Got Here
It's amazing what happens to your national perception when you beat Texas Tech. It's more impressive watching your national perception deflate after losing consecutive games to BYU and Utah. This is an interesting team - those two losses were the only losses they had all year, and they've very quietly re-entered the Top 25. However, it could easily be argued that most of those wins weren't over good teams; Wyoming was their best win during the 8-game winning streak - and it's not like there's a ton of teams clamoring to be ranked at this point in the season anyway.

How TCU Operates
TCU is pretty much the embodiment of the idea that good rushing offense plus good rush defense wins games. They'll rely on Aaron Brown and Lonta Hobbs (who is quickly approaching 27, from what I remember of him - he's been around a while) on the ground and Jeff Ballard through the air. Ballard isn't terrible - he's better than Horvath, which isn't exactly a huge endorsement, but there you go. Their pass D is good but unspectacular - they're solidly a top third team. However, their rush D is 4th in the nation.
Best Win: 12-3 v. Texas Tech, 9/16
Worst Loss: 7-20 @ Utah, 10/5

5 Things to Watch When NIU Has the Ball (or is punting)
1: Garrett Wolfe's effectiveness against the TCU front seven. Actually, their front eight. Wolfe will see a lot of 8-man plus fronts in this game, and he has to be effective in making that extra defender miss in order to consistently pile up yardage.
2: Phil Horvath's ability to get pressure off of Wolfe. It's likely that NIU will rely on play-action passing to freeze the TCU defenders if/when Wolfe establishes himself; in the meantime, Horvath will have to make plays to keep the corners and safeties honest.
3: TCU's ability to contain Wolfe. They haven't seen a rusher like him all season; Air Force has the best rushing *attack* they've seen all year, but in this case rushing attack is not the same as rusher. What's of note is that the two best MWC rushing teams that weren't Air Force and TCU were BYU and Utah - the two teams to beat TCU. (Of course, both teams also have good passing games.)
4: Britt Davis and Marcus Perez's ability to get separation against the TCU defense. Perez is the TD threat while Davis is the possession receiver, but neither is used that often - Perez gets about 3 catches a game while Davis gets about 5. NIU uses a ton of receivers, so any of them can step up - but one of them has to.
5: The "defensive struggle performance" stats. While NIU's punting isn't that great, if the game gets into a field position battle, NIU might not be entirely toast - they have a good return game and a good FG kicker in Chris Nendick.

5 Things to Watch When TCU Has the Ball (or is punting)
1: NIU's ability to shut down either Brown or Hobbs. If both of them are able to get their normal yardage, then NIU is going to be in for a long day.
2: Jeff Ballard's dual-threat ability. While Ballard isn't much of a runner (only about 34 ypg), he does have 5 rushing TDs on the year and a long of 23 yards. That's just enough running ability to be able to keep the Huskies honest - provided he's able to get the time to run.
3: Aaron Brown's catch-and-run ability. Brown's the quick-strike rusher - and as a result, look for TCU to get him the ball on a few screens and hope for the best. TCU doesn't run many screens, but if their line can occupy NIU's front seven, Brown can probably take one to the house.
4: Harmon, Massey, and Reagan. Harmon's the primary, Reagan's the deep threat, and Massey's the third option. But remember that the NIU pass defense isn't anything to write home about. Look for one of these guys to have a big game - and if more than one has a big game, look for TCU to win.
5: Ball control. It's not a guarantee of victory, but TCU does control the ball nearly 32 minutes per game, which may be important - but they do need to have some measure of ball control, since it's not like they're designed for quick strikes.

What to Expect in the Game
I'm not sold that NIU can shut down either Brown or Hobbs and two of the three receivers. Either they'll shut down the receivers and Hobbs / Brown will run over them or Hobbs will get shut down and Harmon will have 6 catches for 100 yards (and Reagan 5/110, etc.) - you get the point. Meanwhile, I think that Wolfe will tear up the TCU defense. However, Horvath won't be able to provide a truly effective compliment to Wolfe and TCU will walk away with a win.

The Great Question of the next 24 hours: Florida or Michigan

Obviously, the question on the minds of every college football fan is - will Ohio State play against Michigan or Florida in the Fiesta Bowl? We'll be getting an anwswer in about 24 hours.

I believe it should be Florida, and here's why:

One of the (yes, very biased) announcers in the SEC championship game was talking about comparing schedules between UF and USC. Basically - compare the teams' loss, and then compare their wins in ranked order. USC lost so that is irrelevent, but what about UM/UF comparisons:

Michigan (11-1, Big Ten runner-up)
loss: #1 Ohio State
W1: #6 Wisconsin (11-1)
W2: #12 Notre Dame (10-2)
W3: Penn State (8-4)
W4: Minnesota (6-6)
W5: Iowa (6-6)
W6: Indiana (5-7)
W7: Central Michigan (9-4)
W8: Vanderbilt (4-8)
W9: Northwestern (4-8)
W10: Michigan State (4-8)
W11: Ball State (5-7)

Florida (12-1, SEC champion)
loss: #11 Auburn (10-2)
W1: #5 LSU (10-2)
W2: #8 Arkansas (10-3)
W3: #13 Tennessee (9-3)
W4: Georgia (8-4)
W5: Florida State (6-6)
W6: South Carolina (7-5)
W7: Kentucky (7-5)
W8: Alabama (6-6)
W9: Vanderbilt (4-8)
W10: Southern Miss (8-5)
W11: UCF (4-8)
W12: Western Carolina (joke)

Florida played one more game than Michigan, but against a non-div IA opponent. So perhaps considering them both 11-1 against div IA is more appropriate.

Obviously, Michigan's loss is a better loss than Florida's.

However, to be quite honest, going down that list you could say that each and every one of Florida's wins is more impressive.
* Wisconsin is 11-1, but they've played only one ranked opponent all season (Michigan). LSU is 10-2 despite facing 4 ranked teams.
* As Georgia Tech lost in the ACC Championship, that means they will likely fall out of the top 25 and Notre Dame will be 0-2 vs ranked opposition, while Arkansas defeated both Auburn and Tennessee.
* Penn State's a 4-loss team, 0-4 vs ranked teams by a combined 99-36. Tennessee not only has fewer losses, but they put a hurting on Cal who is currently #21 and won today.
* And then... Georgia or Minnesota? Florida State or Iowa? The disparities continue.

I think Michigan has actually gone the whole season without beating a team who has beaten a single ranked opponent, though UCLA's upset of USC may bring them into the top 25 (and thus Notre Dame would be 1-2 vs ranked). There is no question in my mind that UF deserves their first shot at beating Ohio State.

That's just the schedule argument. There's still the fact that Michigan already had a shot at Ohio State and lost. It may not be "fair" to Michigan to judge them on that, but then again it's hardly fair to Florida at all for Michigan to get two chances to beat Ohio State while they don't even get one.

The common wisdom is that while Florida played against the tougher schedule, Michigan is the better team as they have won their games more comfortably or with better "style points." But I'm not sure if that's really true. Statistically, Michigan is putting up 30.2 ppg while Florida averaged 28.9 ppg. That's very similar offensive production against what's regarded as the best defensive conference in the nation by far, as well as the best overall conference. Defensively, Florida gives up 14.6 ppg as does Michigan. So their average margins of victory - 15.6 and 14.3 - are close indeed. Then it goes back to the fact that Florida did this against more difficult opposition.

Lastly, there's also the fact that, if I want the Fiesta Bowl to be a good game, I want a team capable of beating Ohio State. On the surface, Michigan's three-point loss in Columbus makes it seem like that team is them. But let's look a little deeper at that game. Ohio State did everything Michigan could have asked for to pull the upset. They turned the ball over three times to Michigan's zero. Troy Smith's interception gave Michigan the ball on the OSU 25 which led to a Michigan field goal. Smith's first fumble gave UM the ball at the OSU 9 yard line to set up a TD, and his second killed a drive that had Ohio State in position for a field goal at least. If the teams rematch, I guarantee that Smith won't have three turnovers and that UM won't win the turnover battle by such a margin. Those turnovers gave Michigan a net of anywhere from +10 to +17 points, and they still lost. The game was all but over at halftime and Michigan caught Ohio State napping, but it wasn't enough. By the end of the third quarter it was still an 11 point game and when Michigan scored their final TD and 2-pt conversion to cut an 11 point deficit to 3, there were just over 2 minutes to go in the game. Ohio State was also penalized for more yards than Michigan. Their punter, one of the tops in the nation, had an abysmal (by his standards) 38 yard average. All this, and Michigan still lost. So I have to ask, what else could go right for the Wolverines in Tempe? I'm not sure that this Ohio State team will play a worse half than the second half they played in Columbus that Saturday, but it wasn't bad enough. And as they showed all first half and whenever they needed to in the second, Michigan's defense, good as it is overall, does not have the personnel to stop OSU's four-receiver packages. Smith shredded the defense to complete 70% of his passes, and when the defense was spread too thin each of their two RBs added a 50+ yard TD scamper.

Could Florida beat Ohio State? Truthfully I doubt they will. Ohio State is, and I really believe this, the best team in the nation. But other "best teams in the nation" have lost BCS championships. 2002 Miami lost to Ohio State. That OSU team, like UF this year, was criticized for winning too many close games. That battle-hardenedness proved useful in a double-OT game for the title, while that was basically Miami's first real test of the season. Florida is more battle-hardened team than Michigan, both in terms of the opposition they faced as well as having to pull out several close victories. Then 2005 USC lost to Texas. Despite USC having a Heisman-winning QB, Heisman-winning RB, and superior receiving corps, Texas had college football's ultimate weapon - the dual-threat QB. College defenses can't handle em. Florida has TWO dual-threat QBs - the more experienced, faster Leak and the battering ram changeup, Tebow. Henne, while a good QB, does not present the same type of defensive problem that Leak and Tebow do. Furthermore, Urban Meyer's offensive schemes are more difficult to defend against than the standard offense Michigan runs. On top of that, Florida has more big-play potential on offense and a better punting, return, and block team than Michigan. So they have the potential to simply play Ohio State close and win off a big play or two. Michigan's only chance would be to actually outplay Ohio State, as the big play potential completely favors the Buckeyes in that matchup.

If there is anything just and right about college football, and many would argue that there isn't, Florida should face Ohio State for the national championship.

New statistic: yards per point

There's a great college football preview magazine out there by Phil Steele... most accurate predictions in the country over the last five years or so. It's full of more information than anyone but the most diehard fan could ever want, and one of Phil's statistics is Yards Per Point (ypp).

The idea is that an offense is efficient if their ypp is low, meaning they're turning yards gained into points scored. Likewise, a good defense doesn't let you turn yards into TDs, so a good defense will have a high ypp. Winning the field position battle also creates a favorable ypp statistic. Let's look at two examples:

1. The Texas Longhorns. The defining games of the season for the Horns so far have been Ohio State and Oklahoma. Against the Buckeyes, Texas gained 340 yards and gave up 368, but the score was a 24-7 loss. Why? A turnover on the two yard line killed a likely TD drive, and an interception to start the second half allowed OSU to score a field goal without having to move the ball. A missed field goal also negated a long drive by the Horns, though this also happened to the Bucks on their first drive.
In the Red River shootout, Texas consistently had good field position, and their first two offensive touchdowns needed only 62 and 52 yards. This and the fact that they had no turnovers allowed the Horns to score 21 offensive points despite just gaining 265 yards. OU on the other hand gained 380 total yards but scored just ten points. Five turnovers had a lot to do with that.

2. The Oregon Ducks. The defining games of the season for the Ducks so far have been the Oklahoma and California games. Against the Sooners, UO outgained OU 533 yards to 402, but they trailed 33-20 late in the 4th quarter. The reason? UO turned the ball over four times and forced just one Sooner TO. A -10 yard average punt deficit swung the field position battle, and the kickoff coverage team gave up 123 yards on just 4 returns. On top of that, the Ducks missed a 51-yard FG to wipe out a long drive in the second quarter. So what should have been a comfortable win by the yardage numbers ended up being one of the craziest finishes of the season.
Against Cal, the turnover battle was once again lost by a count of 4 to 1. The Ducks gave up a punt return TD and again had an average punt of under 40 yards. So in this game, the yardage totals were 428 for Cal and 374 for Oregon, but the score was 45-24.


Steele uses this to predict the next year's success - interestingly, with the premise that the law of averages means that team with very good ypp rankings won't have the same luck next season, and a team the poor ypp can only move up.

But how about how the top 25 teams are performing this season? By my rankings:

1. Ohio State: Offense 11.78 ypp, Defense 32.33 ypp
2. Florida: Offense 14.25 ypp, Defense 27.34 ypp
3. Michigan: Offense 11.43 ypp, Defense 17.64 ypp
4. Louisville: Offense 11.90 ypp, Defense 22.91 ypp
5. West Virginia: 10.74 ypp, Defense 23.98 ypp
6. USC: Offense 13.60 ypp, Defense 21.00 ypp
7. Texas: Offense 9.83 ypp, Defense 22.52 ypp
8. Tennessee: Offense 11.97 ypp, Defense 15.04 ypp
9. Auburn: Offense 12.99 ypp, Defense 24.47 ypp
10. California: Offense 11.33 ypp, Defense 17.55
11. Clemson: Offense 10.87 ypp, Defense 16.87 ypp
12. Georgia: Offense 11.22 ypp, Defense 18.19 ypp
13. Iowa: Offense 13.63 ypp, Defense 19.38 ypp
14. Notre Dame: Offense 12.55 ypp, Defense 14.67 ypp
15. Georgia Tech: Offense 12.33 ypp, Defense 17.02 ypp
16. LSU: Offense 11.9 ypp, Defense 20.92 ypp
17. Oregon: Offense 12.68 ypp, Defense 13.28 ypp
18. Missouri: Offense 12.39 ypp. Defense 21.61 ypp
19. Arkansas: Offense 16.73 ypp, Defense 16.26 ypp
20. Nebraska: Offense 11.68 ypp, Defense 21.05 ypp
21. Boise State: Offense 10.52 ypp, Defense 20.72 ypp
22. Oklahoma: Offense 12.26 ypp, Defense 15.31 ypp
23. Va Tech: Offense 10.53 ypp, Defense 19.98 ypp
24. Rutgers: Offense 10.62 ypp, Defense 23.34 ypp
25. Wisconsin: Offense 12.40 ypp, Defense 19.27 ypp

So what does that mean? Well I look for two things:

1) High ypp offense or low ypp defense. These are the teams who aren't playing very efficiently, and that may lead to losses in the future.
* Florida 14.25 ypp offense. They've throw 6 INTs and missed numerous field goals.
* Arkansas 16.73 ypp offense. Averaging 21.2 points on 354.6 yards. That is not nearly enough point production to defeat a team like Tennessee, and yards will be hard to come by against LSU.
* Tennessee 15.04 ypp defense. Opponents are scoring way too easily.
* Notre Dame 14.67 ypp defense. Then again, we already knew UND's defense was weak.
* Oregon 13.28 ypp defense. Good lord. Some of the top offenses aren't averaging the kind of efficiency they're giving up every week.
* Oklahoma 15.31 ypp defense. The big play is killing them; they've got to turn some of these long TDs at least into long plays into the red zone (if not just stopping them altogether), where they have the chance to force a turnover or field goal.

2) Extremely low ypp offense or extremely high ypp defense. The idea here is that they're playing extrememly efficiently, but that might not last all season.
* Texas 9.83 ypp offense. The Horns aren't moving the ball that well, but defense and special teams are helping. How long will that last? Even the 05 Texas and USC offenses weren't this efficient.
* WVA, Boise State, Va Tech, Rutgers < 11 ypp offense. What this really says is that most of their opposition is just too weak to stop a drive.
* Ohio State 32.33 ypp. They're relying a little too heavily on the other team turning the ball over and missing FGs. I don't know that I've ever seen a team finish with a ypp over 30.

Of course, with the teams just starting to get into the meat of their schedules, these numbers aren't as telling as they will be in a few weeks. Just something to keep in mind...

Week 6 - my top 25 and impressions

1. Ohio State - I'd consider myself to have been a healthy skeptic of the Buckeyes for most of the season, but the skepticism can only go so far. The Bucks have the best QB-WR duo in the NCAA with Smith and Ginn, a strong #2 WR in Gonzalez, and have shorn up their defense. The kicking game has settled down since the first two weeks, and they've had comfortable wins over Texas and Iowa.

2. Florida - How'd 99% of people out there miss this team? Well I did too, so don't ask me. Their 1-point win over Tennessee looks a lot better now, and they gained 311 yards against a LSU defense that had been giving up less than 200 ypg, scoring 23 against a defense which had given up just 37 in 5 games. Defensively the team is amazing, with one of the best secondaries in the nation led by Ryan Smith and Reggie Nelson, and the defense is giving up just 56 ypg rushing despite having faced a tough SEC schedule. Tebow is a great change of pace, and when Wynn returns the offense will be even better.

3. Michigan - If Arrington continues to emerge, the offense will have five legitimate weapons which will make them one of the most well-rounded units in the nation. The defense has given up just 40 ypg rush per game, and they have faced Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State's offenses. Looking ahead, this stat implies that the Wolverines may match up very well against West Virginia.

4. Louisville - Perhaps more than anyone else, this team exemplifies what it means to have depth. Incurred losses have had no effect on their gameplay.

5. West Virginia - Other than ECU, their wins have been impressive, but in every instance they've been against cupcakes.

6. USC - Struggling with the injury bug and struggling to defeat mediocre teams in conference play. Though they're still unbeaten, that Cal-Oregon-Notre Dame stretch suddenly starts to look like it may be too much for the Trojans.

7. Texas - This week answeed a lot of questions for me. The defense has held its own against two very strong offenses in Ohio State and Oklahoma. While the offense was held to just 7 against the Bucks, turnovers negated them actually gaining about the same number of yards. As McCoy matures, TOs will go down and scoring will go up, as we saw this past weekend.

8. Tennessee - What they've done against Cal, Georgia, and even Florida is impressive, particularly offensively, but at the same time I don't like a defense giving up 30 points to Air Force and Georgia.

9. Auburn - Let's not forget that the Tigers did beat a good LSU team and have one of the best backs in the nation, but at the same time Arkansas did expose their size issues and troubles in the passing game.

10. California - A 21-point win over Oregon is impressive, and now that 18-point loss to Tennessee on the road doesn't look so bad. The offense is incredibly explosive, but the defense hasn't had a truly good performance yet.

11. Clemson - I don't know what to make of this team, but they're unlucky not to be undefeated with a weird loss to BC. The FG block unit has scored two TDs and a 2-point conversion, which is impressive.

12. Georgia - With Tereschinski back, the offensive struggles may be over. The defense, though, was shredded by Tennessee... giving up 51 points is not acceptable for a team with title aspirations.

13. Iowa - Potentially strong, yet inconsistent performances.

14. Notre Dame - Can I gripe for one minute? They're ranked no lower than NINTH in any of the major polls. How quickly people forget their blowout at the hands of Michigan, a fortunate choke by Michigan State, or for that matter the fact that Stanford rivals Duke as the worst team in a BCS conference.

15. Georgia Tech - The win over Maryland was closer than it should have been, but they're a TD away from being undefeated, and that loss was to the team right above them.

16. LSU - The defense is still scary, but not being able to run the ball is a major liability.

17. Oregon - The defense is mediocre, the offense is great, but this team needs to learn how to hold onto the ball. The offense turned the ball over four times against Cal and four times against the Sooners, five of those being interceptions thrown by Dixon.

18. Missouri - They're solid on both sides of the ball, but they have a freshman QB and still haven't beaten a good team.

19. Arkansas - This team's not as bad as they looked against USC, nor are they as good as they looked against Auburn. Their HB duo is frightening, but Mustain's play has been weak for the most part.

20. Nebraska - Okay, so Big Red isn't exactly back. But their rush defense has been solid enough, and have looked good in four of their six games. (yes, we're getting to that level of teams) Frankly we won't know much about them until they play Missouri... well, unless they pull the upset of Texas.

21. Boise State - Undefeated and with a bruising running game... but right now, you could argue that their toughest opponent has been 2-3 Oregon State.

22. Oklahoma - AD's presence means that most defense can't stop them. The problem is, OU's defense doesn't look like they can stop too many people either.

23. Virginia Tech - They still haven't really done anything, but their loss to GT wasn't that bad either.

24. Rutgers - Well they are unbeaten afterall.

25. Wisconsin - Sure, why not. 5-1 record, averaging close to 200 ypg rushing.

Weekend Matchups (Week of 10/7)

Totally delayed on getting stuff posted; I've been busy, and it looks like it'll stay that way. What'd help matters is if I didn't post incredibly, incredibly long entries. This way I wouldn't need to allocate 3 hours per post. Anyway....

(15) Clemson @ Wake Forest
Why to watch: Well, it's for the early-season title of strongest ACC team of the moment. Seriously, who thought Wake would be 5-0 anyway?

What to watch for: Rushing yardage. Clemson now has a dual-threat running game with C.J. Spiller and James Davis (Spiller finally emerged last week), while Wake only goes one-deep thanks to an injury to Micah Andrews - he won't be back this week, either.

What to expect: Again, Clemson has a stronger set of running backs, and I'm a sucker for a strong 1-2 punch on the ground. Oddly, Wake's been having issues stopping the pass (both defenses do a decent to good job of stopping the run), so for all the rushing yardage, Will Proctor might be the difference.

Purdue @ (19) Iowa
Why to watch: Momentum. Purdue didn't really play a bad game last week, but they were outplayed. Meanwhile, Iowa got embarassed at home. Think that'll be a factor?

What to watch for: Defensive disparities. Purdue's been having issues stopping the run - witness the anemic ND rushing attack going for nearly 140 yards last week - and Iowa again has that 2-deep rushing attack I like.

What to expect: I figure Iowa's going to be pissed. When a team is hammered like that at home, they either fall into one of two groups: depressed for the year (the Michigan State side) or looking for retribution. Iowa's probably going to fall into the latter, and while I think Purdue will get their yardage, Iowa has an intangibles edge. Of course, I said this last week about BYU.

Navy @ Air Force
Why to watch: It's the only 2-1 team in the nation. Seriously. AF has only played 3 games so far. Also interesting if you like a) rushing and b) the academies.

What to watch for: options - lots of options. Also, two teams that are very familiar with each other; not only do both teams run variants on the same offense, but they play every year.

What to expect: Navy's triple option: Brian Hampton (QB), Reggie Campbell (SB), Adam Ballard (FB). Air Force's triple option: Shaun Carney (QB), Chad Hall (RB), Ryan Williams (FB). Those 6 guys will get the ball most of the time, and this game will take you back to 1925. This matchup lacks the luster of a lot of other games, but academy games are normally strongly contested and Navy looks like they could be bowl-bound again this year. Both teams could use the win.

Washington @ (3) USC
Why to watch: Tyrone Willingham has the Huskies sitting at 4-1, but this is their toughest test by far. USC is fighting off injury issues at receiver.

What to watch for: We know about USC this year; we know Booty and Moody will be good this year and next, but we also know that they're not the teams of years past. What we don't know is how Washington will play now that they have some confidence (remember that we didn't know anything about the Huskies when they played Oklahoma, really; the general response was "Oklahoma sucks", not "Washington might be good), and that's going to be interesting. What happens if Washington finds themselves close late?

What to expect: Lost in all the talk of offense is that USC still has a pretty good defense; again, it's mortal, though. Look for Washington to attempt to get the ball to Shackelford and Russo in an attempt to stretch the USC D. Shackelford is the better option of the two - he dominated the UCLA game. For USC, they'll do what they always do, and they'll probably do it about as well as they've done it so far this year.

(9) LSU @ (5) Florida
Why to watch: SEC is overrated lolz. Arguably the most complete 1-loss team in the nation going up against an undefeated team that ...well, really isn't getting respect. Also, Texas / Oklahoma is on commercial break (if you're from the Big 12).

What to watch for: Well, defense. Both of these defenses are impressively good, and both these teams have taken the best shot from the best teams they've played so far (Auburn and Tennessee, respectively). LSU's defense rose to the challenge against Auburn (check the stats; they outgained Auburn by nearly 100 yards, even if Auburn won the game. No disrespect against Auburn, either; that was an impressive win).

What to expect: LSU will have to take to the air to win the game. Florida's rush defense has been incredibly impressive, and as I can attest to, running the ball against the Gators is damn hard unless you have a solid back. Speaking of solid backs, Wynn is out for the Gators. This means that the Gators will either have to go to the air or rely on Tim Tebow for their rushing yards. Probably both - but LSU also has two safeties that played for their '03 championship squad. Besides, it's a SEC game between two national powerhouses - all (well, most) eyes will be here.

(7) Texas @ (14) Oklahoma @ Dallas
Why to watch: It's some kind of rivalry game. There's obvious Big 12 implications here, and possibly NC ramifications if the cards fall right. Also, LSU/Florida is on commercial break (if you're from the SEC).

What to watch for: Mack Brown in a big game. I'd really just repeat this about 20 times, but in the interest of the game, you've got Colt McCoy playing a game that's arguably bigger than the OSU game was and Adrian Peterson looking for revenge after missing last year.

What to expect: See above. Colt McCoy shouldn't be counted on to win this game like he was against OSU. Jamaal Charles should carry the game for the Longhorns, and Peterson will carry the Sooners. It'll come down to if Oklahoma can pull out a few stops; remember that this defense was well-hyped coming into the season, and they're coming off a bye week.

(23) Missouri @ Texas Tech
Why to watch: Mizzou's first real test; another opportunity for TTU to get some respect after a tough win against A&M last week. They're still looking to fight off the TCU loss.

What to watch for: Check out the differences in team philosophy; Missouri's had a rock-solid defense all season and TTU is, well, TTU. One of the most obvious "what to watch for" lines on the board.

What to expect: Here's the interesting one. Texas Tech will have issues running the ball again this week, but since they're primarily a passing team, it'll fall to the Missouri secondary to stop the offense. The Tigers shouldn't have an issue moving the ball, though; TTU has given up big games both on the ground and through the air this season, although their big passing yardage mark is a total outlier. Still, Missouri should have some success on the ground, and they'll try to control the game with the rush.

(13) Tennessee @ (10) Georgia
Why to watch: Tennessee's first chance to prove its legitimacy after the Florida game, and Georgia's last chance to prove they're a legitimate unbeaten. (Think about it; if they lose, they can't really prove they're a legit unbeaten.)

What to watch for: Tennessee's running game (or lack thereof?), Georgia's passing game (or lack thereof?). Joe Tereshinski is back for the Dawgs, but Arian Foster will be - at best - limited for the Vols. It's up to LaMarcus Coker to prove that the last couple of weeks weren't flukes.

What to expect: A game that's way, way closer than anyone's figuring. Yeah, Georgia hasn't looked good. Yeah, Tennessee's done well between the hedges the last few years. But it's a night game in the SEC, and you can go ask Auburn what that means.

(11) Oregon @ (16) California
Why to watch: You live on the West Coast; another opportunity for Oregon to silence the critics and an opportunity for Cal to prove they're a legit team in the Pac-10.

What to watch for: Excellent QB play (Dennis Dixon and Nate Longshore) and excellent RBs (Jonathan Stewart, Marshawn Lynch, and Justin Forsett). While Dixon and Stewart are the better talents, Cal does run a strong 2-deep. Plenty of talent in the backfield for both teams.

What to expect: Again, with two great offenses it normally comes down to whichever team can stop them. Oregon's already seen a great RB in Adrian Peterson, and while Cal will give them a different look, Peterson carried 34 times against the Ducks. The most that Lynch and Forsett have carried in a game is 39 times against Minnesota. Similar to Oklahoma, Cal was supposed to have a good defense. This'd be a great time for it to show up for the Bears.

(22) Nebraska @ Iowa St.
Why to watch: If you're a fan of the Big 12 North, this is the game for you. ISU hasn't been on the winning end of a blowout yet this year, and Nebraska is coming off a way-closer-than-expected OT win over Kansas.

What to watch for: Whither the Cyclones' rushing attack? They've been stuffed on the ground the last couple of games, and that won't keep them in the division hunt if that continues. Nebraska should be looking to make a road statement, as Iowa State falls squarely in that area of "not national title contenders, but not bad teams" - and we don't know how Nebraska does against those teams yet, really.

What to expect: Nebraska will get yards one way or another; the only team that's stopped them was USC, and ISU doesn't have near that caliber of defense. Iowa State will do their best to keep the game close, and offhand I'd say this could be a contender for the All-Ugly Game of the Week (non-ACC division).

Other games to watch - quick edition:
Arkansas @ (2) Auburn: a battle for the early driver's seat in the SEC West. Arkansas needs to control the ball more than they do right now, and Auburn needs a decisive win after what came off as a lackluster win against South Carolina. (It wasn't, really.)

Penn St. @ Minnesota: more rushing yards. Offhand, it looks like the Golden Gophers have the better team, but PSU has a better record. Weird. No idea what to expect here.

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse: say wha? Syracuse is 3-2 and a win against Pitt totally legitimizes them for Big East competition. Nobody expects them (or Pitt, really) to do anything other than get waxed by the big guns, but if the Orangemen pull off the upset, it could be a dogfight for 3rd. Pitt has all the pressure, as Syracuse has realistically already exceeded expectations for the year.