Early Series Mini-miniature Capsules: 4/25 to 4/27

As always, same ranking theories as before. Work's the same, and while this is slightly later than I'd like it to be, it is technically before the first Tuesday game. I'll deal.

1. Boston (previous series 1-2, W1) @ Cleveland (previous series 1-2, L2) - Matchup du Jour

It's not an exciting week for matchups (at least during the week). Howver, this pairing would be exciting no matter what. Cleveland is coming off a surprise series loss to the Royals (everyone regresses to the mean sometime, I guess). Any way you break it, this will be a good series - good pitching and better hitting. Expect 2 blowouts (one by each team) and a close game in the 4-3 range.
BOSTON 5.5, CLEVELAND 4.5

2. Tampa Bay (previous series: 0-3, L3) @ New York (AL) (previous series: 2-1, W2) - Redemption (?)

Don't look now, but the Devil Rays were 11-8 last year against the Yanks. Bet that leaves a mark. Aside from the Damon pickup, not much has changed with either team. As always, if the Yanks can score, then they'll probably win. On paper, it's all Yankees - but we said that last year, too. Who knows?
NEW YORK (AL) 6, TAMPA BAY 4

3. Cincinnati (previous series: 3-1, W1) @ Washington (previous series: 1-1, L1) - Doctor's Orders

Hey, it's another bad pitching staff for the Nats to beat up on. Of course, it comes with a good offense, too. This will probably be as close to an offensive bonanza as anything in RFK will ever get; in other words, expect some 8-6 games. The Nats have the definite upside advantage, though, as their pitching usually isn't this bad.
WASHINGTON 6.5, CINCINNATI 3.5

4. Colorado (previous series: 2-1, W1) @ Philadelphia (previous series: 1-1, W1) - Next Best Thing to Home

It's not Coors, but it's not far off. Maybe the Rockies will believe it. That'd be the major way to avoid problems on the Rockies' end of things. For the Phillies, they can probably shut down the Rockies' offense, especially absent Todd Helton, who has some vaguely described stomach ailment.
PHILADELPHIA 7, COLORADO 3

5. Baltimore (previous series: 1-2, L2) @ Toronto (previous series: 2-1, L1) - Second Level Competition

Obviously, neither of these teams are bad, really. They just default out to the second level of teams in the AL East. Noting wrong with that. However, look for a significantly better offense (Toronto's) to be the deciding factor. Baltimore wil probably take a game in the series, but expecting more than that might be border slightly on outright folly.
TORONTO 6.5, BALTIMORE 3.5

6. Atlanta (previous series: 1-1, W1) @ Milwaukee (previous series: 1-3, L1) - Super-Delayed Homecoming

Of course, whenver Atlanta goes back to Milwaukee, someone has to bring up that the Braves used to play there. Getting back to modern times, both teams are having minor pitching issues. Atlanta still needs a serviceable 5th starter, and the Brewers are wondering what's going on with Doug Davis. Look for the Brewers' hitting to carry them over the slightly injured Braves.
MILWAUKEE 5.5, ATLANTA 4.5

7. Oakland (previous series: 1-2, L2) @ Texas (previous series: 3-0, W4) - Divisional Mediocrity

Both teams are still somewhat struggling and are better than their records indicate. While this matchup is close, it's only close because it's in Texas, where Oakland's pitching superiority isn't as easily exploited. However, Oakland's offense should do well against the substandard Texas pitching, which will account for the difference.
OAKLAND 6, TEXAS 4

8. Florida (previous series: 1-1, L1) @ Chicago (NL) (previous series: 1-2, W1) - Struggles

Chicago's still adjusting to life without Derrek Lee while Florida isn't very good. This series should be a positive thing for both team's offenses, especially if the wind blows out. This should be one of the times where the Cubs don't miss Lee; they don't need him here for one, and they should take two here.
CHICAGO (NL) 7, FLORIDA 3

9. Los Angeles (previous series: 2-1, W1) @ Houston (previous series: 3-0, W3) - Playing Field

The field is again a factor. This time, it's nullfying Los Angeles' pitching advantage. Unfortunately for them, Houston's pitching isn't as bad as expected, and even a more potent than normal offense might not be able to score enough runs to keep up. While these teams are close, close does not necessarily mean interesting in this case.
LOS ANGELES 5.5, HOUSTON 4.5

10. Minnesota (previous series: 0-3, L4) @ Kansas City (previous series: 2-1, W2) - Battle of Who Could Care Less

On one hand, you've got a team that consists of Johan Santana, Joe Nathan, a couple of decent hitters, and not much else. On the other hands, Kansas City wishes they had that much. Feel the excitement! WHen someone says that interleague matchups aren't exciting, neither is this series.
MINNESOTA 7, KANSAS CITY 3

11. Pittsburgh (previous series: 0-3, L4) @ St. Louis (previous series: 2-1, L1) - Divisional Boredom

Seriously - we saw this in Pittsburgh last week. What's changed? Nothing. Well, maybe Pujols isn't as hot, but that's it. This might qualify for the Unexciting Sweep of the Week, as each team probably already knows its fate - and nobody else has a lot of reason to care.
ST. LOUIS 8.5, PITTSBURGH 1.5

12. Detroit (previous series: 3-0, W5) @ LA Angels (previous series: 2-1, W2) - Gatecrashers

Don't look now (hey, I said that again), but Detroit hasn't done badly on their West Coast jaunt. Is this an early-season mirage or a sign of things to come? This will be a tougher test for the Tigers, as while the A's struggled compared to expectations, the Angels have not.
LA ANGELS 6, DETROIT 4

13. Chicago (AL) (previous series: 3-0, W6) @ Seattle (previous series: 0-3, L3) - Cakewalk

This should be easy pickings for the White Sox, as they're a fair amount better than Seattle. LIke most of the early series this week, there's not a whole lot more than that, it would seem. Felix isn't pitching for the Mariners, but they'll probably take a game. Don't hold your breath waiting, though.
CHICAGO (AL) 7, SEATTLE 3

14. Arizona (previous series: 1-2, L1) @ San Diego (previous series: 2-2, W1) - All-Ugly Award Winner

Seriously. You get Peavy this series, so enjoy it. The rest of this series should be hideous. Bad pitching in a pitcher's park is fun for the whole family. So why do I pan this series and like the Cincy/Washington matchup? I'm a Nats fan. Let's hear it for personal bias!
SAN DIEGO 6, ARIZONA 4

15. New York (NL) (previous series: 2-2, L1) @ San Francisco (previous series: 1-2, L1) - Thank You, Drive Through

New York is looking like they have a team this year. San Francisco consists of Barry Bonds and some young pitchers. Sounds like an even matchup. Oh yeah, Barry hit a HR in Coors. I think ESPN covered it in passing.
NEW YORK (NL) 6.5, SAN FRANCISCO 3.5

Late Series Mini-minature Capsules: 4/21 - 4/23

So, the basic ranking method can be found here. Same as before.

1. Baltimore (previous series: 2-1, W2) @ New York (AL) (previous series: 1-1, W1) - "Strength" v. Strength

The good news for Baltimore is that their better arms are going in this series (notable exception: Eric Bedard). The only problem with that is the Yankees' offense is solid; they'll be tested. Mazzone's starting to work, but the real key for Baltimore may lie in their ability to get to the non-Rivera part of the bullpen.
NEW YORK 6.5, BALTIMORE 3.5

2. Atlanta (previous series: 2-1, W2) @ Washington (previous series: 2-1, W1) - Struggles to Riches

Atlanta's pitching is slowly starting to round into shape; so are the Nationals' pitchers. Again, the key to this series may be each team's ability to generate offense. These team match up better than you'd think, especially given any National momentum at likely getting a new owner.
WASHINGTON 5, ATLANTA 5

3. Florida (previous series: 1-2, L1) @ Philadelphia (previous series: 1-2, L1) - Offensive Continuation

Philadelphia gets a younger and more suspect staff than Washington and a worse bullpen. Florida gets a tougher staff, but a slightly weaker opposing offense. Still, there's no reason that the Marlin offense can't roll out 5 a game. The question for them is they can allow less than that.
PHILADELPHIA 6.5, FLORIDA 3.5

4. Boston (previous series: 2-1, L1) @ Toronto (previous series: 1-1, L1) - Momentum Declaration

The winner of this series takes the momentum drivers' seat in the AL East. Until the Yankees wake up, one of these teams will rule the AL East. Honestly, these teams match up well; Boston is slightly strong, but Toronto has the homefield advantage.
TORONTO 5, BOSTON 5

5. Cincinnati (previous series: 2-1, W1) @ Milwaukee (previous series: 1-2, W1) - When Hitting Collides

While Cincy has a better lineup, Milwaukee's lineup is by no means bad. In addition, Milwaukee's pitching is strong enough to at least partially stifle Cincy's bats. Cincy's pitching? Not so much; figure on one game where they silence the Brewers, but more than one would be surprising.
MILWAUKEE 6.5, CINCINNATI 3.5

6. Tampa Bay (previous series: 1-2, W1) @ Texas (previous series: 2-1, W1) - Ineffective Pitching Defined

Neither team has had terribly effective pitching so far. The main difference is that Texas' offense is much better than Tampa's; in addition, Texas' pitching is at least incrementally better than Tampa Bay's. The Rangers don't have an appreciable advantage, but they have engouh small advantagees across the board to make a major difference.
TEXAS 6.5, TAMPA BAY 3.5

7. Pittsburgh (previous series: 1-2, L1) @ Houston (previous series: 2-1, L1) - Strength in Home

Three majoe advantages for Houston: they're at home, their ace (Oswalt) pitches on Sunday, and the Pirates simply aren't very good in the first place. The only major mitigating factor for the Pirates is that Houston's staff really only runs two strong, and they'll have their shot against Wandy Rodriguez and Taylor Buchholz. As long as their staff keeps them in the game, they should be able to snake one.
HOUSTON 7, PITTSBURGH 3

8. Cleveland (previous series: 1-2, L2) @ Kansas City (previous series: 0-3, L3) - Wanton Slaughter

Poor Royals. First they get the defending World Series champions, and now they get the pissed-off Indians. The good news for them is that they should be able to score a few runs; if they can luck out and hold the Indians down, they could steal a game. The bad news is that's probably just theoretical; when your lifeline is "what if they suck?", that's when you know you have problems.
CLEVELAND 8, KANSAS CITY 2

9. Chicago (NL) (previous series: 2-1, W1) @ St. Louis (previous series: 2-1, W1) - Life Without Lee

Ouch. On one hand, the Cubs throw Maddux on Sunday and get a shot against Ponson on Saturday. On the other hand, they just lost Derrek Lee for at least 2 months, and Rusch is going against Sir Meatball. At least they won't face Carpenter, but they should win one here.
ST. LOUIS 6, CHICAGO 4

10. Minnesota (previous series: 1-2, L1) @ Chicago (AL) (previous series: 3-0, W3) - Divisional Crackdown

Chicago had it easy this week. If the White Sox can keep pitching, they sweep, especially if Johan's not slated to start. Unfortunately for them, he's going on Friday. That means that Minnesota can easily sneak out with a couple of 2-1 or 3-2 victories.
CHICAGO (AL) 7, MINNESOTA 3

11. San Francisco (previous series: 2-2, W1) @ Colorado (previous series: 1-2, L1) @ Repeat!

This is pretty much the same basic idea as the San Diego / Colorado and San Francisco / Arizona matchups from earlier in the wek, except San Fran has better pitching than San Diego. Two storylines are Colorado's struggles at home so far this year and - of course - Bonds at altitude.
SAN FRANCISCO 5.5, COLORADO 4.5

12. LA Angels (previous series: 2-1, W1) @ Oakland (previous series: 1-2, L2) - Race to 3 Runs

Both these teams have loaded pitching staffs and solid bullpens. Expect all these games to be tightly contested affairs dominated by excellent pitching. Oakland holds a slight advantage due to having the homefield advantage and a slightly more solid lineup; plus, the Angels just lost Bartolo Colon.
OAKLAND 5.5, LA ANGELS 4.5

13. Detroit (previous series: 2-1, W2) @ Seattle (previous series: 1-2, W1) - Fishmarket

Neither team has been doing particularly well; Seattle's still struggling, and there's not a lot going on in Detroit outside of Chris Shelton. This certainly has the makings of the All-Ugly Series of the Weekend, as the only things to watch for in this series pitch on Sunday (Verlander for the Tigers, Felix for the Mariners).
DETROIT 5.5, SEATTLE 4.5

14. New York (NL) (previous series: 1-2, L2) @ San Diego (previous series: 2-1, W1) - Reverse Homecoming

Even thoguh the big names went from New York to San Diego, the first series of the season between these two teams comes in Petco. San Diego is coming off a series win in Colorado. Look for the Mets to strike hard against the Padres' pitching, as their bats didn't do much against Atlanta.
NEW YORK (NL) 6, SAN DIEGO 4

15. Arizona (previous series: 2-2, L1) @ Los Angeles (previous series: 1-2, L1) - Nullified Disadvantage

You'd think that the Dodgers would manage to put up a lot of runs against the Arizona pitching staff, but as it turns out, that's not actually the case. Blame Chavez Ravine. It gives the D-Backs more of a chance than they would have otherwise.
LOS ANGELES 6, ARIZONA 4

Early Series Mini-miniature Capsules: 4/18 to 4/20

Okay, before I get to this, I decided to make yet another number-based system to sort teams. I like doing that sort of thing, evidently. Already have done one major chart of most of the MRs in baseball and a host of other rankings that aren't online, but trust me, I've done them. Anyway, the sliding scale is a base-10 system. Basically, there are 10 points that I associate with any series, and they're split up between both teams - normally not equally. The more points you get, the more likely you are to win the series. It's rough, but based on a 3-game series, these are the breakdowns I'm going off of:

team >= 8: 3-0
8 > team >= 5: 2-1
5 > team >= 2: 1-2
team <= 2: 0-3

So yes, any rankings of 5 really just mean "I have no idea." Change it how you want for 4-game series or 2-game series. Those should be a little more evident.

1. Cleveland @ Baltimore - Youth v. Youth

Cleveland has the young hitting, Baltimore has the young pitching. Based on the park factors, this would seem to favor Cleveland slightly. Factor in Cleveland's youth is more experienced and the advantage shifts even more to Cleveland. Baltimore's main advantage is Chris Ray.
CLEVELAND 6.5, BALTIMORE 3.5

2. Tampa Bay @ Boston - Ouch City

At least Tampa Bay shouldn't have to worry about their closer. Orvella's back, but it won't matter; Boston is so much better than Tampa Bay across the baord. The Devil Rays' main advantage - if you can call it that - is their young hitting. Maybe they can work Wily Mo Pena to exhaustion.
BOSTON 8, TAMPA BAY 2

3. St. Louis @ Pittsburgh - Divisional Slam

Zach Duke finally woke up for the Pirates; that gives them one pitcher and two hitters (Craig Wilson and Jason Bay). Duke won't pitch in the series. Ouch. As for the Cards, they're still rounding into shape, Pujols is pounding the ball, and everything else, while it might not be clicking perfectly, is certainly clicking well enough to where it won't matter anyway.
ST. LOUIS 7.5, PITTSBURGH 2.5

4. Washington @ Pittsburgh - First to 10 Runs Wins

Washington is finally getting non-horrible starts from its staff and is riding a 2-game winning streak as a result. The Phillies just won 1-0 in Coors. Don't expect this to continue. Of interest for the Nats is who pitches for Drese and how Livan does, but expect the runs to be free-flowing.
PHILADELPHIA 6, WASHINGTON 4

5. New York (AL) @ Toronto - Harbringer

Closer matchup than you'd think. The Yankees' lineup is loaded, while the Toronto lineup (to up and including Alex Rios) hasn't been that bad. This ends up a matchup of strength v. strength, and should be an exciting showdown, especially for so early in the year.
NEW YORK (AL) 5, TORONTO 5

6. Florida @ Cincinnati - Cue the Crickets!

Cincinnati's opened the season strong (surprising). Florida hasn't (not surprising). About the only major question in this series is when the Reds will fall back to earth. Of secondary importance is what the Fish will do in absence of Hermida; this ballpark and the Reds' staff is a perfect place to get some inflated numbers for his replacement.
CINCINNATI 6, FLORIDA 4

7. Atlanta @ New York Mets - Force Meets Wall

The Mets have opened up the season on an absolute tear. There's no reason it shouldn't continue; the Braves have struggled out of the gate, and now their right half of the infield is injured, too. However, they've had the Mets' number over the last few years; they get up for these games.
NEW YORK (NL) 6, ATLANTA 4

8. Kansas City @ Chicago (AL) - Forecast Calls for Pain

Simply put, a mismatch; Kansas City has no appreciable advantage - even potentially - over the White Sox. If the Sox fail to show up for a game, then they Royals might steal one, but even that's debatable.
CHICAGO (AL) 9, KANSAS CITY 1

9. Milwaukee @ Houston - Return / Resurgence?

The Brewers have started hitting, and Ben Sheets is back for them. All signs point to Milwaukee rolling all over Houston, but keep in mind two things: Houston hasn't been hitting poorly themselves, and Andy Pettitte has performed badly so far; that won't last. Even if it does, the Astros' bullpen is still great.
MILWAUKEE 6.5, HOUSTON 3.5

10. LA Angels @ Minnesota - When Pitching Collides?

Both teams have excellent pitching with a couple of early-season question marks. For the Angels, it's K-Rod and Escobar / Weaver. For the Twins, it's Radke and Santana (early struggles). Of course, watch Murphy's Pitching Corollary in effect; it's either 3 low-scoring games or 3 offensive explosions.
LA ANGELS 7, MINNESOTA 3

11. San Diego @ Colorado - Crapshoot

Two teams without obvious strengths. San Diego's slightly better pitching is nullified by Coors. Colorado's slightly better hitting is nullfied by their substandard pitching. In other words, it's business as usual in Denver.
COLORADO 5.5, SAN DIEGO 4.5

12. San Francisco @ Arizona - Dichotomies

We just saw this series in Colorado. The same basic ideas are in play here, except the Giants' pitching is better than the Padres', and Arizona doesn't have much going for them outside of Brandon Webb and Chad Tracy. This might be the winner of the All-Ugly award, especially if Bonds continues to suck.
SAN FRANCISCO 6, ARIZONA 4

13. Detroit @ Oakland - Momentum?

While Detroit has cooled off after a blistering start (Chris Shelton has not), Oakland is still riding strong behind their pitching. This is more a matchup of young pitching than you'd think between these two. Detroit has Bonderman, Robertson, Maroth, and Verlander; Oakland has Harden, Harden, and Blanton.
OAKLAND 6.5, DETROIT 3.5

14. Texas @ Seattle - When Flounders Collide

Both teams have struggled early on. They're both better than indicated, although the ceiling for Texas is higher than the one for Seattle. Watching King Felix to see how he responds to getting hammered in his last start.
TEXAS 6.5, SEATTLE 3.5

15. Chicago (NL) @ Los Angeles - Steamroller

The good new for Chicago? Their pitching isn't this bad. The badnews? The Dodgers are on a roll. Chicago's performance in the series hinges on Zambrano's performance - and he's due.
CHICAGO (NL) 5, LOS ANGELES 5

6 Bigger Things: 4/16/06

This is more or less ripping off of my previous post. I don't think it counts as plagarism if you use yourself as a template, right? I hope not.

1. Old Man's Revival - New York Mets / Chicago Cubs

This is the tale of two former Braves who - at least for now - are enjoying a pretty thorough revival of their former selves. Tom Glavine struck out 11 against the Brewers on Friday, April 14, and while that sounds pretty impressive, remember that the Brewers lineup is mostly comprised of youngsters. Not saying that it's not an impressive accomplishment - moreso for Glavine, given his age and his "I might be washed-up"-ness, but Glavine hasn't seen those kind of K numbers since he was getting those pitches 6 inches off the outside corner called as strikes. Factor this recent showing with a surprisingly strong second half of 2005 and a new outlook on how he pitches, and this could get really interesting really quickly for Glavine. Hasn't hurt his cause that the Mets have opened up red-hot, either.

On the other hand, Greg Maddux has been lights-out for the Cubs simply because he has to be. Nobody else on the staff has produced anything of consequence (see my previous post) other than headaches. It's still debateable at this point - much like Glavine - how long Maddux can keep this up. My guess is he's performing at a higher level simply because nobody else on his team is doing so, and once they start picking it up, Maddux will back off some.

2. Ryan Klesko Pulls a Wally Pipp - San Diego Padres

If the Padres hadn't tried to move Adam Eaton, we would never have seen this. As it stands, Adrian Gonzalez took over at first (coming over from the Rangers in the Eaton deal) when Ryan Klesko got injured, and Adrian shows no sign of slowing down. Those that have followed him don't find this terribly surprising - he was blocked by Mark Teixiera, so it's not really that bad to say you can't break camp as the starter when he's in front of you. As of now, he's a high average, decent power kind of guy with a plus glove. This year - even with this showing - will be more than likely a growing year for him; expect the occasional slump as he adjusts to major league pitching. On the whole, though, the Padres have found a long-term answer at first.

3. Turnabout - Washington Nationals

Someone forgot to tell these guys they needed to pitch. They were supposed to have problems hitting. However, utter ineffectiveness all across the board on the pitching staff has placed an undue burden on the hitters. The ironic thing about this is that so far, the offense has stepped up; they've performed significantly better so far than they did last year. If the pitching held up their end of the bargain, the Nats would probably already have 2 more wins.

The only good news on the pitching side of things is that the loss of Luis Ayala isn't being felt that bad yet. Jon Rauch looks like he's stepped into that superman reliever role - which he can do, given that could be a starter as well. Matter of fact, with Ryan Drese's recent injury, he might be that, too.

4. When Everything Fails - Texas Rangers

The anti-Washington Nationals were supposed to be able to crush everyone offensively. Two weeks in and their offense has sputtered, relatively speaking. Brad Wilkerson is certainly one of the main culprits, although production is down across the board.

However, unlike the Nationals, the pitching has not risen to the occasion. New ace Kevin Millwood has been rocked whenever he's taken the mound, and the main acquisition from the Chris Young / Adrian Gonzalez deal - Adam Eaton - is already on the DL. The good news here is that while the team is bad now, the offense is too good not to rise to the occasion and Millwood won't remain as bad as he's been so far.

5. Dogfight - AL Central (except the Royals)

What will probably be a hotly contested division all year has begun that way as well. Detroit has fallen back to the pack after a blistering start, and as of now (4/15), the Indians and the White Sox are tied at the top, while the Tigers are tied with the Twins. Look for this trend to continue.

Honestly, look for these groupings to continue throughout the year. Figure that the Indians will spend most of the season in close contention with the White Sox, and the Tigers will fight with the Twins for third. The AL Central is probably the most obviously tiered division in baseball; it's odd that it seems to have already reached its natural balance so soon.

6. Unbalanced Closers - Baltimore / Boston / Tampa Bay

Closer problems?

Baltimore - So far, Chris Ray has performed well. There were questions going into the season about his performance, but so far, so good.

Boston - Foulke's gone. In his place, Papelbon is in. He's done well in the role, although it is early in the year. While most people don't doubt his ability to perform under pressure (I don't doubt it myself), it'll remain to be seen how well he'll do later.

Tampa Bay - This, not surprisingly, is a mess. Life after Miceli is debatable until Chad Orvella finally makes it back to the big leagues. At this point, he's unquestionably (barring trades) the closer of the future. Right now, it's anybody's guess as to who the closer of the present is. If you know, could you tell Joe Maddon, please?

12 Quick Hits: 4/13/06

First off, it's two weeks in. I'm not finishing the capsules. That kind of annoys me, but it's my procrastination, hence it's my fault. I'll start earlier next year. Anyway, onto this.

1. Round 2 of the Beanball Wars - Mets @ Nats

So after last week's beanball extravaganza, the Nats and Mets have met for another 3-game series, this time in Washington. Granted, MLB did tell them to back off, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they will. Matter of fact, pretty much the only thing that we've learned from this series is that the Nationals pitching has sucked so far. Even Livan couldn't bail them out today. (Just imagine there's a link to the pasting the Nats got delivered today where the "for" two sentences up is, okay?)

2. Injury Train Rides Again - Los Angeles Dodgers

Yikes. Talk about a potential trainwreck. Gagne might be out for the season (again), Nomar's already on the DL, Kenny Lofton's on the DL, and Olmedo Saenz and Kent are day-to-day. This right here is why I'm not a huge fan of the Dodgers - too many injury risks. One thing that the Dodgers were smart in doing that the Giants weren't is that they thought ahead to actually sign an ex-closer (Danys Baez) to close in case Gagne went down again. At least Nomar was largely an experiment, too.

3. Whither Pitching? - Chicago Cubs

So we already knew Prior was injured along with Wood. That's not a surprise. Where the surprise lies is that everyone else has sucked. Well, and Maddux is pitching out of this world so far- all the way back to the mid-90's. What wasn't expected was that the rest of the rotation would suck this badly. When Zambrano's struggling, that's when you know you have problems.

4. Tigers on Top? - Detroit Tigers

Blame Chris Shelton. 7 HR already? I mean, they're still probably the third-best team in the division behind Chicago and Cleveland, but didn't we say the same thing about Chicago last year? Could be interesting, and at the least, Shelton's hot start deserves some mention. What's also playing into the Tigers' favor is do they know they're not supposed to be this good? This is a young team, after all.

5. Wait 'Til Next Year - Tampa Bay Devil Rays

They knew the pitching was going to be bad, but this bad? Kazmir's not horrible, but the rest of this staff is dreadful. Textbook example: Mark Hendrickson ...well, kinda sucks, but he did throw a three-hit shutout against the Orioles. Of course, after that he promptly goes on the 15-day DL. Now Aubrey Huff is injured, too. Great. At least Chad Orvella is back with the team.

6. The Mazzone Experiment - Baltimore Orioles

Two weeks in, Eric Bedard has performed better than he had last season. As for Daniel Cabrera, he doesn't seem to be as quick to catch the information presented to him by Mazzone; while he has a ton of strikeouts, he also issued 8 walks in his last game. Hoo boy. Evidently he was also not working batters like Mazzone prefers. Consider this a recording for posterity.

7. Beginning/Ending - Boston Red Sox

Hey, look, a team I haven't covered yet! Well, Keith Foulke was supposed to be the closer, but he's struggled. Jonathan Papelbon, though, hasn't. Better performances, better numbers, but more youth. Statistically speaking, there's no reason that Papelbon shouldn't be the closer; non-statistically, you can look at youth and loyalty. My guess is that it'll change fairly soon, in a month or two.

8. What Centerfield Savior? - Texas Rangers

Oops. Evidently Brad "Mendoza" Wilkerson wasn't the savior the Rangers are looking for. The only real mitigating factor is that everyone has sucked offensively for them so far. Ironically, Alfonso Soriano has rocked the house - relatively speaking - so far for the Nats. This probably won't last, though.

9. Help Your Cause - Cincinnati Reds

Alternatively, this could be entitled "Arroyo owns Rusch." Arroyo's got 2 HR already, both off of Rusch - both games were Reds wins, too. Ironically, the questionable decisions of giving Rich Aurilia and Tony Womack regular playing time have worked out, god only knows how. Freel's getting regular playing time thanks to our favorite injury-prone player, Ken Griffey, Jr.

10. The Sosa Surprise - Atlanta Braves

So Jorge Sosa had a surprisingly good season last year, so much so that the Braves were counting on him at the tail end of the rotation. That's worked - to the tune of a 11.37 ERA. Ouch. This could get nasty; bet the Braves never thought Horacio Ramirez could be their savior.

11. Michael Barrett >> You - Chicago Cubs

Joining Chris Shelton on the All-First-Two-Weeks Team is Michael Barrett, who's been rocking the cover off the ball since Opening Day. Not that he sucked in the first place, but he's just really good now. This is probably just an April spurt, but we said the same thing about Derrek Lee last year.

12. Next Verse, Same as the First - San Francisco Giants

So the Giants are still old, still have a questionable offense, and still have an injured closer. Armando Benitez should be back somewhat soon, but in the meantime, it's that damn closer by committee thing again. You'd think that they would make a change like the Dodgers did and bring in someone worth a damn who's done this before, but not so much on the forward thinking.

Cleveland Indians: Youth Movement

Head back to the home discussion

Starting Pitching:

Ace: Jake Westbrook
2nd: Cliff Lee
3rd: C.C. Sabathia (injured)
4th: Paul Byrd
5th: Jason Johnson

5 questions:

1. Will Sabathia ...well, for one, return well from injury, and two, perform at the level of effectiveness he had last season?
2. How will the rotation cope with the loss of last year's ERA king, Kevin Millwood?
3. How deep is the rotation? Newcomers Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson will be at least serviceable, but beyond that?
4. Along the same lines, how will Byrd perform in the rotation?
5. Will the rotation perform well enough to allow the offense to compete with the White Sox?

More information:
Jake Westbrook
C. C. Sabathia

Bullpen / Closer:

Closer: Bob Wickman
8th: Rafael Betancourt
7th: Guillermo Mota
Sit. Right.: Fernando Cabrera
Sit. Lefty:
Mop-up: Danny Graves

5 questions:

1. Danny Graves? Really, Danny Graves? Is the bullpen that hard up for help?
2. Will Wickman fall apart this season?
3. How will the young guys (Betancourt, Cabrera) perform given increased responsibility?
4. Will Mota improve back to his '04 levels now that he's performing under less pressure - and more health - than he was in Florida last year?
5. How are they getting lefties out?

More information:
Fernando Cabrera

Infielders:

C: Victor Martinez
1B: Ben Broussard
2B: Ronnie Belliard
SS: Johnny Peralta
3B: Aaron Boone
DH: Travis Hafner

5 questions:

1. Whither Andy Marte? How long will it be before he comes up?
2. How much will the young kids improve / rake it?
3. Will Hafner's health have a significant impact on their offensive performance?
4. Can Boone perform at all close to what he's done in the past?
5. How good can V-Mart and Hafner be in the middle of this lineup? Yikes.

More information:
Johnny Peralta
Travis Hafner
Andy Marte

Outfielders:
RF: Casey Blake
CF: Grady Sizemore
LF: Jason Michaels

3 questions:

1. How will the outfield play with the loss of Coco Crisp to the Red Sox?
2. Is there any speed here outside of Sizemore?
3. How will Jason Michaels perform given an everyday role?

More information:
Grady Sizemore
Jason Michaels

Extra Stuff:

I'll be honest - I like the Indians for the wild-card. They've got enough youth and offensive prowess to win more than their fair share of slugfests, and their pitching should keep them in close games. Mind you, the World Champion White Sox might not have happened last year had the Indians not bit it late last year. Food for thought.

Oakland A's: Moneyball's in its What Year Now?

(Disclaimer: I know the regular season has begun. Told you I've been late on these; all of these are valid for the start of the season, but lack updates. You've been warned.)

Head back to the home discussion

Starting Pitching:

Barry Zito is the stated ace. Rich Harden, however, is the practical ace. Why the difference? Well, maybe they're trying to remove pressure on Harden - or at least keep it temporarily at bay. I'm not sure. Still, though, that's how things break down - give Zito the pressure and Harden the glory. The biggest question is if Zito can rebound from a disappointing 2005 campaign.

As for the rest of the rotation, it's surprisingly deep. Esteban Loaiza was - shockingly - overpaid to come to Oakland. $7 mil a year for a third starter? All right. Maybe Billy Beane just went nuts from having money for the first time. Still, he's a solid presence in the middle of the rotation. The fourth and fifth starters are members of the all-upside pitching staff, Dan Haren and Joe Blanton.

The fun part about this staff? It kinda goes 7 deep; Kirk Saarloos and Brad Halsey are still around in case of injury. Neither is great, but they'd be 5 guys on a lot of staffs out there. Food for thought. Useful if (or when) Harden goes down.

Rough Rotation Guess:
Ace: Barry Zito
2nd: Rich Harden
3rd: Esteban Loaiza
4th: Dan Haren
5th: Joe Blanton

More information:
Barry Zito
Rich Harden
Dan Haren

Closer / Bullpen:

Huston Street was a surprise ....okay, let me clarify. Huston Street was a surprise if you've been living under a rock. Poor Kiko Calero just got toasted. That being said, Calero wasn't bad at all in a MR role, either. Heck, this bullpen in general is one of the best you'll find. Jay Witasick had a sick K/9 rate, and Justin Duscherer(erererererer) is on the totem pole of MRs just below Linebrink and Shields. This bullpen is nothing short of scary if you're the opposition.

Rough Bullpen Guess:
Closer: Huston Street
8th: Justin Duscherer
7th: Kiko Calero
Sit. Right: Jay Witasick
Sit. Lefty: uh-oh.
Mop-up: Brad Halsey

Infielders:

Perenially injured (but perpetually talented) Bobby Crosby will play short when healthy. He's already injured - and already delayed on his return. Exciting. Marco Scutaro gets the job when he's gone. That being said, when healthy, Crosby has at least 20-HR potential - it's just that as of now, he's unlikely to reach it. Sad.

The corner positions are quite exciting; Eric Chavez has a history of starting slowly but turning it on late; he's quietly one of the best third basemen in the league. A platoon of Dan Johnson and Nick Swisher will take first base; except Johnson to get the vast majority of the starts, as Swisher has a steady job in the outfield.

Surprisingly-good Mark Ellis starts at second base; he provides a solid average (and as a result a good OBP), more power than you'd think, and solid periphials, without any of the hype - or at least a fraction of the hype he should receive. I could be missing something there, but from what I can tell, he's certainly good stuff. His anti-stealing partner, Jason Kendall, can't possibly suck at the plate as much as he did last year.

As for the DH, this is an interesting little position; Billy Beane actually had money last year, and with that, he signed Frank Thomas. Yes, that Frank Thomas. I'm not sure what to expect from him, but when he was healthy, he could still rake it. That's all he has to do now.

Projected Infield:
C: Jason Kendall
1B: Dan Johnson
2B: Mark Ellis
SS / DL: Bobby Crosby
3B: Eric Chavez
DH(L): Frank Thomas

More information:
Jason Kendall
Dan Johnson
Mark Ellis
Bobby Crosby
Eric Chavez
Frank Thomas

Outfielders:

Nick Swisher gets the starts in left. That is, when he's not at first. Jay Payton is the outfielder super-sub - it's odd seeing someone relatively injury-prone as a super-sub, but there you go. Mark Kotsay opens up the season as the starting center fielder.

As for right field, this is the only remotely interesting thing that changed here. Milton Bradley was signed to start there. Seems odd having him in right - especially given his injury risks -but he's there, so we'll deal.

Projected Outfield:
RF: Milton Bradley
CF: Mark Kotsay
LF: Nick Swisher

More information:
Milton Bradley
Nick Swisher

Extra Stuff:

Typical Beane team - great rotation, will suck early on then go 18-2 in August or something similar. Still, though, their rotation is excellent and their bullpen is fantastic. Their offense puts them just above the Angels, even though everything else looks similar. Good stuff. Fun times.

Anaheim Angels: Just Above Average Pretty Much Everywhere

Head back to the home discussion

Starting Pitching:

These guys' depth is staggering. While the quality per pitcher isn't fantastic, the dropoff between the ace (Bartolo Colon) and the 5th starter (Jeff Weaver) is much less than what you'll see on most teams. Surprisingly, the weak link might be the third starter, Ervin Santana. Granted, he's only up there because 1) Kelvim Escobar is injury-prone and 2) Jeff Weaver was signed late, which means he's functionally the 5th starter, but even given that, he's good stuff. At least for a fifth starter.

As for Escobar, he's one of the maddeningly annoying injury-prone-but-with-great-stuff guys. After a good 2004, 2005 was vicious for him in terms of innings; however, he's been above 100 in ERA+ (ERA above league average) in every season except for 1999 and 2000 (whoohoo). When healthy, he's one of the best 4th/3rd starters out there. Same goes for Weaver, except 1) he wasn't injured, he was in New York and 2) his ceiling isn't as high. Good innings eater, better than what you'd expect from a 4/5 guy.

As for the top 2 guys, Bartolo Colon was quite effective as an ace last year, and John Lackey is simply a strikeout machine. While these guys certainly aren't as glamorous as what you'd expect from a 1-2 combination, there's a lot there. Way more than you'd think, and a lot better than you'd expect.

Rough Rotation Guess:
Ace: Bartolo Colon
2nd: John Lackey
3rd: Ervin Santana
4th: Kelvim Escobar
5th: Jeff Weaver

More information:
John Lackey
Kelvim Escobar
Jeff Weaver

Closer / Bullpen:

This is another one of Anaheim's major strengths. Closer Francisco Rodriguez is one of the more elite closers in the game - if he's not already in the top 5 closers in the league (I see it that way), then he'd certainly be no worse than 6th. His K-rate is already up there with the elite closers, and his WHIP and ERA aren't any worse off. In other words, if you don't think he's one of the top 5 closers, you're crazy.

As for the rest of the bullpen, it's surprisingly deep, although not as deep as it would appear on first glance. Hector Carrasco enjoyed a mini-career revivial last year in Washington, so of course he was promptly relocated. However, he's the new guy; the guys they already had were damn talented in their own right. Scot Shields is one of the best middle relievers out there, and along with Brendan Donnelly, they form the core of the bullpen. Donnelly, however, struggled last year.

Rough Bullpen Guess:
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
8th: Scot Shields
7th: Hector Carrasco
Sit. Right: Brendan Donnelly
Sit. Lefty: J.C. Romero
Mop-up: ???? (Probably unnecessary)

More information:
Francisco Rodriguez

Infielders:

So where does this team go wrong? Well, it begins here. Granted, "wrong" is all relative at this point, as the Angels' definition of wrong is simply young. Adam Kennedy and Orlando Cabrera are the stalwarts of the middle infield. Okay, that's a boldface lie - Chone Figgins is expected to steal (get it? he's fast, har har) time from Kennedy at second, although he's starting every day at third. He's quite good, and will play most every day between third, second, and the outfield. Edgardo Alfonzo - remember him? - will take over when Figgons moves around, since Dallas McPherson is still playing on the all-ineffective team.

As for first, this the the first real sign of the youth movement; Casey Kotchman will take the lion's share of the starts at first. Granted, this is partially due to the decision of the team to move Darin Erstad to the outfield again (and not to, say, the bench, but I digress), so make of that what you will. One of the flying Molina brothers - Jose - will be the main catcher, and perenially underplayed and underrated Juan Rivera (former Nat! I hate Jim Bowden) will finally get a chance to play at DH. It's a start.

Projected Infield:
C: Jose Molina
1B: Casey Kotchman
2B: Adam Kennedy
SS: Orlando Cabrera
3B: Chone Figgins
DH: Juan Rivera

More information:
Casey Kotchman
Juan Rivera
Dallas McPherson

Outfielders:

So there's this guy - Vladmir Guerrero - in right field. Maybe you've heard of him. He's pretty good. Just sayin'.

The rest of the outfield, though, ....uh.... isn't. They're old, though - they've got that one locked down. The aforementioned Darin Erstad takes over in center - I have no clue why, but look for Figgins to sub for him. Garret Anderson, who's sadly sorely declined due to age, is still the daily left fielder. Not bad, I say. Well, not bad for his age, perhaps - or that he has a job. He's not good, though.

Projected Outfield:
RF: Vladmir Guerrero
CF: Darin Erstad
LF: Garret Anderson

More information:
Vladmir Guerrero
Garret Anderson

Extra Stuff:

So here's what the Angels boil down to, in my book. They're basically a slightly-less-good version of the Oakland A's. Granted, if you're going to imitate teams, you could do worse, but the inherent problem with an imitation is that by its very definition, it can't be as good as the original. That being said, they're still a good team, don't get me wrong. It's just there's a better, slightly deeper team in the division.

Watch for odd breaks, though - the Angels have a fantastic farm system, and might actually end up with a net gain if some of their old guys get injured. They'll be exciting to watch, if only for Vlad.

Texas Rangers: Pitchers Apply Within

Head back to the home discussion

Starting Pitching:

What does it mean when your top two starters are transplants from other teams? Well, if your previous ace was knocked down to the three hole, then that either means you've got a loaded rotation or you had an incredibly weak one last year. In Texas' case, it means the latter. Kevin Millwood was brought over from the Indians, and while he had a surprisingly good season back in 2005, there are question marks as to his performance level in what amounts to the AL's version of Coors Field. As an ace on a league-wide level, he's a little weak - although certainly above the lowest tier of aces. The second starter is Adam Eaton, who came over from the Padres in the Chris Young deal. Eaton struggled somewhat last year, although he produced some fairly decent PETCO-aided numbers. However, going from PETCO to Ameriquest Field is going to do him no favors whatsoever, and look for his numbers to be below your typical #2 starter.

The rest of this staff is pretty much end-of-rotation fodder. Padilla actually came over from the Phillies last year (making that the top 3 pitchers are all transfers); oops. In a better ballpark, he'd be okay as a 3, but he's going to hurt here. Kameron Loe and Juan Dominguez are both young guys with at least fair futures; Loe probably won't progress past a 3-spot in any rotation, though.

This rotation can go either way, since so much of it is transplanted. It's probably a safe bet to assume it's going to err on the side of underperforming.

Rough Rotation Guess:
Ace: Kevin Millwood
2nd: Adam Eaton
3rd: Vincente Padilla
4th: Kameron Loe
5th: Juan Dominguez

Closer / Bullpen:

Francisco Cordero is on the second level of closers; he's not the Rivera, Gagne, Lidge type that pretty much signify game over whenever they enter (unless it's the NLCS, but I digress), but he'll put up good numbers - and remember, an 8-7 save is the same stat-wise as a 3-2 save. The 8-7 save might be more likely with these guys.

As for the rest of the bullpen, Akinori Otsuka is the guy you've heard of (from the Padre killer bullpen last year), but he shockingly (at least to me) wasn't as good as I thought - decent ERA, but a WHIP of 1.42 indictates that he got a little lucky at times to me. A high K rate helps to alleviate that, though. The other best guy in the 'pen is the mop-up kid, Joaquin Benoit. There's not a lot to be proud of here.

Rough Bullpen Guess:
Closer: Francisco Cordero
8th: Akinori Otsuka
7th: John Wasdin
Sit. Right: R.A. Dickey
Sit. Lefty: Erasmo Ramirez
Mop-up: Joaquin Benoit

Infielders:

Best offensive infield in baseball, and it's not even closer. When you consider that second base might be their weakest offensive position simply because rookie Ian Kinsler looks to get the lion's share of at-bats, but he still has 10/15 potential as a rookie, then you're pretty much set. Nobody here is terribly fast, but between Mark Teixeira at first, Hank Blalock at third, and Michael Young at short, they'll put up at least 90 HR, and I wouldn't be surprised if they topped 100 as a group. Tons of power, good average, pretty much the works. Blalock might be the weakest offensive link, and he's still better than what 60% of teams are putting out at third, if not 75%.

As for the DH, this is probably the most umimpressive spot on the offensive roster. Phil Nevin will get the lion's share of the at-bats (further enhancing the Padres Transplants moniker these guys have been riding the last few years). Whoohoo.

Projected Infield:
C: Rod Barajas
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Ian Kinsler
SS: Michael Young
3B: Hank Blalock
DH: Phil Nevin

More information:
Mark Teixeira
Ian Kinsler
Michael Young
Hank Blalock

Outfielders:

This was the "weak point" of the offense last year. That being said, the offensive production was no worse than average last year (even if their average suffered, har har), and they landed a massive upgrade in center as Brad Wilkerson came over in the Soriano deal. Wilky is a little bit hurt to open the season, but when healthy, he's a great power/speed combination that will get on base consistently. Kevin Mench is a classic power hitter with decent-but-not-great power in right, and David Dellucci is another power/speed threat with not quite the same upside as Wilkerson.

Projected Outfield:
RF: Kevin Mench
CF: Brad Wilkerson
LF: David Dellucci

More information:
Brad Wilkerson

Extra Stuff:

Here's the problem with the Rangers - and good on them that they addressed it this offseason, but it's still there - they lack quality pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen. This rotation will be a step up from previous years, but not as much as you'd think. Eaton won't be anything to call home about whatsoever, but again, I talked about that up there.

Bottom line, if they were in a division where everyone else had subpar pitching, their offense is so clearly well above everyone else that they'd win their fair share - maybe more - of ugly 8-7 games. However, it's going to be strength vs. strength all season for these guys, and as baseball is really a game of failure, well, the outlook doesn't look great.

Seattle Mariners: Hail to the King

Head back to the home discussion

Starting Pitching:

So I'll go ahead and blow through the top 4 starters real fast, since all the interest here lies with King Felix. Jamie Moyer is still around, still a junkballer, and one of these days, he's going to get real old real fast. Until that point, however, he'll have a spot in a rotation - since, after all, he's a left-hander who can get the ball over the plate. He's actually not that spectacular in terms of sheer numbers, but right now Seattle's pitching depth is such that they need warm bodies out there, and he satisfies that requirement. Not a true ace, though.

Joel Pineiro and Jarrod Washburn are the 2-3 guys (and the only other rotation guys whos first name begins with J), and while Pineiro isn't that great - honestly, I'm not sure why he's the #2 - Washburn is pretty good, although he was injured for a time last year. My best guess is they're putting him at a 3 to protect his arm / body. As for Gil Meche, he had an awesome season back in 2000, then fell off the face of the planet for a couple of years. After he came back to the majors, he hasn't been the same pitcher. Right now, the staff is decent, but not spectacular; it's mainly filled with a 2 and some middle-back of the rotation types. They could use some depth.

*phew* Glad we got that out of our system. Anyway, on to Felix Hernandez. If you haven't heard of King Felix, here's the lowdown on him. He strikes out a ton of batters (to the tune of about 8 K/9, which is more or less obscene for a starter). He's got a good defense behind him - more on that later. He doesn't walk a whole lot of batters (about 3.3 K/BB) - which, granted, given that ratio, means he's still walking about 2 a game, which isn't earth-shattering amazing. Still, that ratio's fantastic. So is his groundball-flyball ratio (3.3 GB/FB). What does all this mean? Practically, he's got a pretty good shot of striking you out, and if/when you do hit it, it's probably going to be on the ground, where one of Seattle's excellent defenders will get it. In other words - wow. The only thing preventing him from being the Seattle ace right now is that he's 19. Anyone remember Gooden back in '84? We might get the answer to what Gooden might've become now.

Rough Rotation Guess:
Ace: Jamie Moyer
2nd: Joel Pineiro
3rd: Jarrod Washburn
4th: Gil Meche
5th: Felix Hernandez

More information:
Felix Hernandez

Closer / Bullpen:

Eddie Guardado's back again as closer after yet another season with some random injuries and a whole heck of a lot of trade talk. If and/or when that happens, either Rafael Soriano or J.J. Putz will take over closer duties. Soriano is supposed to have the inside track on that, but a rough offseason and some velocity issues in winter league could put the Mariners a little gunshy on him. Putz isn't too bad.

As for the rest of the bullpen, it's certainly passable, and probably a little above average given the dreck in a lot of other bullpens. Julio Mateo is the workhorse.

Rough Bullpen Guess:
Closer: Eddie Guardado
8th: J.J. Putz
7th: Julio Mateo
Sit. Right: Rafael Soriano
Sit. Lefty: George Sherrill
Mop-up: Jesse Foppert?

More information:
Rafael Soriano

Infielders:

Seattle's All-Japan connection continues. In addition to Ichiro, they also brought over Kenji Johjima, who was quite the power hitter over in Japan. However, as we've seen with Ichiro, Hideki Matsui, and a few other people, Japanese power hitters take a hit over here with either the increased pitching influence or some other factors I don't know. Just my guess, though.

DINOMITE! Carl Everett is the DH. Not a whole lot else to report here, other than he's a fucking nutcase that can swing a bat. And not Randall Simon nuts, either. He's also a backup for some of the outfield spots.

As for the corner spots, Richie Sexson somehow managed to not have a bad power season in Safeco, which is impressive given how the park historically affects hitters. Heck, he hit 21 of his 39 HR at home. His corner opposite is Adrian Beltre, who's an interesting character. He had a career season with the Dodgers back in 2004, parlayed that into a big contract with Seattle, then promptly sucked last year. Granted, by sucked, I mean returned to his 2003/2002 numbers. There's always been a lot of hype around him - was 2005 an aberration, or he is just not harnessing his talent?

The middle infield spots are the oddest to predict. Jose Lopez and Willie Bloomquist are in the running for the second-base spot, and Yuniesky Betancourt, Mike Morse, and Bloomquist are in the shortstop competition. What a mess. Betancourt and Lopez have the most upside, especially defensively (and remember the Felix corollary here), so expect them to start.

Projected Infield:
C: Kenji Johjima
1B: Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Adrian Beltre
DH: Carl Everett

More information:
Kenji Johjima
Jose Lopez
Yuniesky Betancourt
Adrian Beltre

Outfielders:

Raul Ibanez is nothing if not fairly consistent; he's had fairly predictable speed and power over the last 4 years, so it'll make some sense to expect a decline due to age, but any kind of serious decline might just be a little bit nuts at this point. Jeremy Reed is in center, and he's supposed to turn out pretty good. However, he hasn't quite lived up to potential yet, although last season was predominantly filled with growing pains. It's up to the reader to determine if last season was a fluke or a sign of things to come.

Oh yeah - Ichiro's all world in right. Next.

Projected Outfield:
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
CF: Jeremy Reed
LF: Raul Ibanez

More information:
Ichiro Suzuki
Jeremy Reed
Raul Ibanez

Extra Stuff:

For now, this is still Ichiro's team. By the end of the year, it'll be Ichiro's and Felix's team. Look for the team to tailor itself around both of them in the next couple of years.

That being said, the AL West is pretty tough; the Mariners will probably struggle in a division which has at least two teams with better staffs (Oakland, Anaheim), two teams with better bullpens (Oakland, Anaheim), and two teams with better offenses (Texas, Oakland).

Reds Theoretically Get Better: Right.

So, we started off with this guy, right? Since then, Wily Mo Pena was traded from the Reds for Bronson Arroyo (or, if you're Tim McCarver, Brandon Arojo). While on the surface this means that we won't have to hear McCarver butcher his name any more - 'cause let's be honest, the Reds aren't sniffing Saturday games on FOX - what does this mean practically?

Well, the Reds have said that Arroyo won't be the #1 guy, which is smart of them. Seriously. He doesn't have the stuff to really project as more than a back-end rotation guy, certainly serviceable, and in some cases good, in the 4 or 5 spot, depending on the ballpark. So where's the problem? He's a fly ball pitcher. He averages 1.15 fly balls per grounder, and remember how bad that outfield defense was? Yup, this is exciting. On top of that, he gave up about 1 HR a game back in Boston, and Great American Ballpark isn't exactly the best place for pitchers to begin with; we could be looking at a regular Joe Meatballer down the line (worst case scenario) He doesn't strike out a lot of people (4.5 K/9), but hey, he's pretty cheap, right? Still, it's always nice to trade away young talent for a 5.00 ERA.

As for Wily Mo ... yikes. Good hitter, again, but horrid fielder, which could very well be painful in Boston, as you need to be good with the glove to get any time in right. I thought that the Red Sox could use a little more power in their lineup beyond Manny and Ortiz, and this'll do it some days. They'll find ways to get his bat in the lineup, and most importantly for them, they have a cheap option if they want to get rid of Trot Nixon and/or let him walk after this season.

My favorite part of this, though, has been the quotes from the Reds on this. Check Wayne Krivitsy:

He said Pena, long considered a talent that was ready to blossom, would fit in nicely to hitter-friendly Fenway Park, where he'll probably play a platoon role.

So you knew you had a guy ready to break out, and yet you trade him right before this is going to happen on your team? Nice! He's not done yet, though:

Adding the 29-year-old Arroyo makes the Reds stronger, because a Major League team never has too much pitching, Krivsky said.

Does he think he's the Oakland A's or something? By my count, he has 1 1/2 pitchers now (Harang is 3/4, Arroyo is 3/4, Claussen is 1/2, Milton is -1/2), so if he wants a 5-deep rotation, he's only 3 clones of Johan Santana away at this point.

So you'd think the only good part of this would be that Freel finally gets a chance to play, right?

In trading Pena, Narron will get a more settled situation in left field and at first base. He said Adam Dunn will move to left, and Scott Hatteberg will pick up at-bats at first base.

Maybe Freel and Chris Burke can join the All-Screwed-Over-By-Management All-Stars. Oh yeah, and Womack still has the inside track on second base, no matter what was the case this time last week. But it's not all bad - you got Dave "I hit .217" Ross!

San Diego Padres: Product of the Environment

Head back to the home discussion

Starting Pitching:

Jake Peavy is all-world at this point (WBC notwithstanding), and he's certainly one of the best pitchers in the NL, if not the best with Clemens...well, doing whatever it is that Clemens does. (Yes, Chris Carpenter's up there.) He's certainly the best pitcher in the divison hands-down. Jason Schmidt fans can re-apply for this status after the upcoming season, please.

The lower half of the rotation isn't spectacular; Chan Ho Park still sucked after coming over from Texas. He wasn't a bad pitcher in Los Angeles, actually, so maybe he'll turn it around this year, who knows. Don't count on it, though. Woody Williams has been heading downhill ever since 2002. I'd be surprised if that trend reverses now, although he might just hang on enough to not get actively worse this season. As for Shawn Estes... uh, yeah, not so much with the good pitching.

This brings us to the second starter this season, Chris Young. An interesting case - a flyball pitcher with a K/9 of over 7. Not surprisingly, he struggled last season in offense-friendly Texas, but PETCO utterly destroys fly balls. He's the inside favorite for the 1st annual John Patterson Way Better Than You Expected Award.

Rough Rotation Guess:
Ace: Jake Peavy
2nd: Chris Young
3rd: Woody Williams
4th: Shawn Estes
5th: Chan Ho Park

More information:
Jake Peavy
Chris Young

Closer / Bullpen:

Well, Trevor Hoffman's still around. That takes care of the closer role until he retires.

Aside from him, the bullpen isn't quite as awe-inducing as the Otsuka/Seanez/Linebrink combo of doom last year, but Linebrink's still around. He's one of the best MRs in the game, so you could do a lot worse for an 8th inning option. Doug Brocail will move up to take the 7th, although he's not that great. Clay Hensley is the best of what's left (and he's pretty good scraps to be picking over - better than Brocail. Don't be surprised if his role increases throughout the season.)

Rough Bullpen Guess:
Closer: Trevor Hoffman
8th: Scott Linebrink
7th: Clay Hensley
Sit. Right: Scott Cassidy
Sit. Lefty: Alan Embree
Mop-up: Clay Hensley

Infielders:

Well, Mike Piazza came over from the Mets (along with Mike Cameron - more on him later). Combine aging with the previously mentioned cavernous ballpark and this is not going to be a recipe for success. He still can't throw anyone out, either. Yikes. Good move, guys.

Ryan Klesko returns to first base yet again - he showed a bit of power in the second half last year, although again, park numbers and his overall mediocrity mean don't expect anything specatcular from him this season. As for corner partner Vinny, he's just old. Still wields the glove well, though.

The major storylines for the season lie in the middle infield. Khalil Greene has always been good with the glove, but his hitting has always been in question. Strides he made back in 2004 were shot down this past year as he regressed back to where he was previously. This could be an important year for him. On the other side of the diamond, Josh Barfield will make his full-season ML debut. He could be a candidate for Rookie of the Year - he's quality stuff. Mark Bellhorn will give him the occasional day off.

Projected Infield:
C: Mike Piazza
1B: Ryan Klesko
2B: Josh Barfield
SS: Khalil Greene
3B: Vinny Castilla

More Information:
Josh Barfield

Outfielders:

Brian Giles was great .... a few years ago with the Pirates. He's not bad now, but age and the park have taken a lot out of him; what could've been a 25/20 guy is now a 15/15 plus guy. It's kind of a shame, really. On the other side of the outfield, perenially injured Dave Roberts will start the season there. Termel Sledge will take over for him when (not if) he gets injured.

In center, Mike Cameron also came over from the Mets this offseason. He brings a great glove with him, and a fairly unique combination of speed, power, and not much else. He's a power hitter that doesn't get on base a whole lot (horrid averages these last few years), but when he does, he'll run. Interesting case, but his main asset to the team isn't that as much as it is his glove.

Projected Outfield:
RF: Brian Giles
CF: Mike Cameron
LF: Dave Roberts

More information:
Brian Giles

Extra Stuff:

This season might answer the eternal question of just how far two pitchers can bring one team. I figure that Peavy and Young will allow them to win 50-55 games, which means that if the team can coax 30 wins out of the other 90 starts, then that'll at least be enough to be competitive in this division. The back end of the bullpen is solid enough to win them a couple of games average bullpens might lose.

Remember, this division sucks. Good defense, passable pitching, great pitching ballpark ... don't expect many 10-9 games, but count on quite a few 4-3 and 3-2 games.

Arizona Diamondbacks: At Least the Rockies Can Blame the Altitude

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Starting Pitching:

Brandon Webb is their ace, and rightfully so; he's better than people think (he was the up-and-comer when it was the Schilling & RJ show back in 2001), and after a horrible season in 2004, look for him to bounce back. However, the biggest problem with him isn't his own fault; he might lack for wins and not because of the way he pitches. It's just that the rest of the team is that bad. If you're comfortable accepting that fact, then we're okay. If not, then you're probably not going to like the rest of this entry. Consider that your warning to bail out now.

Moving right along, the rest of this rotation approaches abysmal. When your best potential pitcher was a closer in another country last year, that's a problem. Granted, that country was Canada, so it's not like Miguel Batista was facing Little Leaguers in Italy, but it could still be a recipe for disaster. However, Diamondbacks management was at least smart enough to realize this wouldn't be your ideal second-pitcher candidate, so they put him behind the personification of the 5-run rally himself, Russ Ortiz. At least if he has an ERA below 6 it's a good year for him.

Orlando Hernandez holds a distinction few have: they actually got worse once they left the Yankees. Normally it's the other way around, but his ERA jumped by a run and a half while pitching for the (World Champion) White Sox. I wouldn't trust the D-Backs to win a series with South Africa, so there you go.

Halsey, at least, should be a decent 5th starter - at least compared to the rest of these guys. Shockingly (or not), he's got the lowest ERA out of any of them, not counting Batista. Not that 4.61 is really low, but you get the idea.

Rough Rotation Guess:
Ace: Brandon Webb
2nd: Russ Ortiz
3rd: Miguel Batista
4th: Orlando Hernandez
5th: Brad Halsey

More information:
Brandon Webb

Closer / Bullpen:

Their ideal closer is the third starter. Failing that, they'll fall back on Jose Valverde, who seems to keep on coming down with injuries. Seriously, the closer situation has been up in the air in Arizona for the last 3 years due to injury and ineffectiveness; it's where closers go to die. However, Brandon Lyon is the only real challenger to his throne at the moment (as their best reliever, Brandon Medders, is down due to injury), which means Valverde should be safe through the end of April at least. That's a start.

As for the rest of the bullpen, it's a shame that Medders went down, as he was the best they had to offer. Everyone else is more or less horrible. Lyon at least doesn't habitually allow people on base.

Rough Bullpen Guess:
Closer: Jose Valverde
8th: Brandon Lyon
7th: Luis Vizcaino
Sit. Right: Jason Grimsley
Sit. Lefty: hmmmm... this could be a problem....
Mop-up: Claudio Vargas

Infielders:

At least some of these guys are young. They should provide some good defense, too. Tony Clark will siphon at-bats from Conor Jackson until Jackson is ready to handle day-to-day duties. Clark was a pleasant surprise last year; it remains to be seen if he can duplicate that success this year, although don't be surprised if he still manages to hit 15-20 HR.

Chad Tracy was the closest thing the D-Backs had to a true everyday offensive stalwart; he's been developing power at the major league level over the last few years (8 HR in 2004, 27 in 2005), so don't look for a jump of 19 HR again this year, but 30's not out of the question.

Orlando Hudson is a better defensive option than they had previously; although his bat's nothing special, they don't need it to be. His basestealing (defensive) counterpart will be Johnny Estrada, who came over this offseason from the Braves to make room for Brian McCann (who might be replaced by Salty), even though Estrada isn't horrible; not a lot of power, but has a decent average.

Shortstop is quite intruiging with this team. As of now, Craig Counsell should open the season at short; however, how long can they keep Steven Drew down for? Quite possibly just as important, how long can Drew and Counsell keep Justin Upton down for? Worlds of possibilities right now for these guys.

Projected Infield:
C: Johnny Estrada
1B: Tony Clark / Conor Jackson
2B: Orlando Hudson
SS: Craig Counsell
3B: Chad Tracy

Outfielders:

These guys are starting to get old - at least the corner outfielders are. Luis Gonzalez isn't the 50-HR guy he was a couple of seasons ago, and he's now closer to his performance level from before then, which isn't horrible, just not spectacular. Shawn Green is much the same way - expect in the mid-20 HR range from both of them and approximately similar averages and you'll be okay.

As for Eric Byrnes, he's a shade below both Luis and Shawn at this point; however, he has something that neither of them have, and that's speed. Not a whole lot of speed, but any speed is welcome in this lineup, as they're all pretty slow.

Projected Outfield:
RF: Shawn Green
CF: Eric Byrnes
LF: Luis Gonzalez

More information:
Eric Byrnes

Extra Stuff:

Okay, I was a little harsh on these guys - they have plenty of positional excitement coming up in the next couple of years; I didn't even mention Carlos Quentin or their Chris Young, and both of them are Top 25 prospects. However, this pitching is nothing short of hideous, and they're going to have to do something about that soon.

However, they probably can't address that until Gonzalez and Green are gone, so don't look for a marked improvement over the next few years. However, one important thing to keep in mind is that the NL West isn't exactly the toughest division in baseball, so as long as they don't horribly suck, they might still be in it come late August.

Colorado Rockies: Still Figuring Out the Winning Formula

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Starting Pitching:

The biggest problem with this staff isn't that they start 81 games in Coors. That's the second-biggest problem. The biggest problem is that these guys aren't that good. Sure, Byung-Hyun Kim had a pretty good WBC, but that doesn't excuse the fact that he's largely sucked as a starter for his entire stint in Coors. Still, though, he's their 4th starter, so it's not like he's expected to be decent; honestly, he'd probably be fine as a 5 in most places.

Aaron Cook and Jason Jennings are the front-end starters for the Rockies, and here's the absolute shocker about that. Aaron Cook's not half bad, really. His biggest problem is he's consistently injury-prone - well, that and from a fantasy baseball perspective, he doesn't strike anyone out. However, his ERA is certainly passable, and quite good given the Coorsian atmosphere. If he can pull 30 starts this season (given his past history, not terribly likely, but work with me), then he should be somewhere in the range of a decent-good 3 starter, and probably slightly below average in the 2 spot (which is where he'll be). As for Jason Jennings, he's closer to what you'd expect - high ERA, bad control, high number of hits, fair number of strikeouts. His home/away performance is relatively consistent, which means that he's probably not ace material. Oh well, not like anyone will notice anyway.

Jeff Francis is the third starter, and ...well, he's a slightly worse version of Jason Jennings who can actually stay healthy. Well, he's close to that - inexplicably, his road ERA is a run and a half above his home ERA, which makes no sense to me. However, it's right there, so there you go. Make of that what you will.

The back end of the rotation is filled with cast-off 4 and 5 starters from other teams. Zach Day (Nats castoff) probably is the best out of the entire lot, which doesn't really mean a whole lot, especially since he can't stay healthy. Steve Kim (Nats castoff... sense a trend?) is more than likely a slightly worse version of Day. Josh Fogg (Pirates castoff) is about what you'd expect from a guy #7 on the depth chart.

Rough Rotation Guess:
Ace: Jason Jennings
2nd: Aaron Cook
3rd: Jeff Francis
4th: Byung-Hyun Kim
5th: Zach Day

Closer / Bullpen:

Ready for a shock? Closer Brian Fuentes wasn't that bad last year - seriously. Now, it looks to me like the Rockies did the right thing with their bullpen: bring in guys who they could get cheap that weren't absolutely horrible last year, and complement them with some high-K guys that they could call on in times of need. Unfortunately, the decent guys give up a lot of hits (this is a bad idea, by the way, for those of you counting at home), and the high-K guys , shockingly, give up even more. David Cortes is probably the best option in middle relief.

Rough Bullpen Guess:
Closer: Brian Fuentes
8th: David Cortes
7th: Mike DeJean
Sit. Right: Scott Dohmann
Sit. Lefty: Ray King
Mop-up: Sunny Kim

Infielders:

Remember the days when the Rockies would just bring in whomever they could so long as they knew they could hit 40 HR in a season? Well, those days are pretty much gone at this point. Now they're opting to bring in youngsters and train them in Coors Field that way. This results in some rather nasty home/road splits, so make of that what you will. Todd Helton hopes to bounce back from a dismal first half - he showed signs of recovery in the second half, and actually was quite good. However, age is beginning to finally take its toll on him, and it's going to be interesting to see how he responds this year.

Superdupersub Luis Gonzalez (not the one in Arizona; the one who can play every postition save pitcher and catcher) will actually be starting at second base this season. He'll also be jumping around to give some people days off and what have you, and when that happens, it's more than likely Jamey Carroll (Nats castoff! I hate Jim Bowden) will fill in at second. (He's also backing up Clint "Vension" Barmes.)

Speaking of vension, Clint Barmes should be fully recovered from one of the best accidents ever now. He did pretty well last year up until the unfortunate deer-related incident, and will seem like a better offensive shortstop than what he really is due to the Coors effect. One important thing to keep in mind is that he's 27 (the Golden Age for hitters), so chances are this season might be as good as it gets.

Catcher has always been interesting for the Rockies; there's always some great new catching prospect coming up this year or the next year; last year was J.D. Closser (who bombed), this year it might be Danny Ardoin. Smart money, though, would be on Yorvit Torrealba ending up with the lion's share of starts behind the plate, as he's been the only guy to produce on some level beyond suck at the major league level.

As for Garrett Atkins (the starting 3B), he's another Coors product. Look for good counting numbers and a fair amount of HRs; however, in terms of third basemen, he's probably no more than average.

Projected Infield:
C: Yorvit Torrealba
1B: Todd Helton
2B: Luis Gonzalez
SS: Clint Barmes
3B: Garrett Atkins

More information:
Todd Helton
Clint Barmes

Outfielders:

For a while, everyone was convinced that Brad Hawpe was going to be better than Matt Holliday, even though Holliday came up earlier. However, Holliday is a much better defender than Hawpe and has a better bat on top of that. Oops. Anyway, they're both starting this year (Hawpe in right, Holliday in left) so we'll have a chance to judge for ourselves.

As for center field, potential speedster Cory Sullivan will get the everyday job. Don't expect him to go out and steal 40+ bases - he's not that much of a speedster. However, he'll offer a decent power-speed combination if he can get on base enough.

It should be exciting to watch all these guys over the course of a season. They're young enough to where they can still improve noticably, and watching any team in Coors is exciting in its own right. Hopefully their offense will be enough to spell the defense from making any major mistakes (this might only be a problem with Hawpe).

Projected Outfield:
RF: Brad Hawpe
CF: Cory Sullivan
LF: Matt Holliday

More information:
Brad Hawpe
Cory Sullivan
Matt Holliday

Extra Stuff:

They've never quite figured out how to get a winning combination in Colorado - at least not a sustainable one. The park presents its own unique challenge, and it's tough to figure out what kind of mix will work. This year, they don't seem to be worrying as much about finding 1 or 2 big bats, but there are quite a few 15 HR+ threats in the lineup, even if only 1 might crack 30 HR (Helton).

As for the pitching ... well, maybe they've given up. I can't say I can blame them, really - it's shellshock. The biggest problem is if they can pitch at sea level and if the guys can swing the bat down there, then yeah, things could be interesting for this team. Not before then, though. Sadly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: String, Duct Tape, and a Little Bit of Hope

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Starting Pitching:

Question marks abound here. If everyone can stay healthy, this rotation is actually deeper than San Fran's, even if the upper echelon of talent isn't quite there. Unlike the Giants, these guys are all proven (with a couple of pseudo-exceptions that I'll get into later). Derek Lowe steps in as the ace of the staff again this year - as aces go, he's probably somewhere slightly below average, in truth. However, pitching in Chavez Ravine can only mean good things for him, so he'll look better than you'd think at first glance.

However, the exciting glare of POTENTIAL comes from the 2nd and 3rd spots. If only Brad Penny and Odalis Perez (former Expo!) can stay healthy, who knows what the possibilities are? Both are certainly talented, but injury-prone is a nice way of saying "broken". I figure that combined they'll put up about 300-350 innings from the 2 and 3 slot, which should be good, winnable innings for the Dodgers. Anything above that is gravy. The biggest problem with that is that Human Firestick D.J. Houlton would move into the #5 role if/when that happens.

Speaking of human firesticks, Brett Tomko's back! The man scares me - I don't know why, but possibly the 4.52 ERA screams bad idea to me. Hopefully he'll make the transition from actively destructive to innings-eater this year. That'd be good news for the Dodgers, and anything below a 4.30 ERA should be viewed as happy times.

That brings us to Jae Seo - quietly one of the Mets' bright spots last year. He was the guy not named Aaron Heilman that was kicking ass and taking names last year. Fun times for all. In the 5 spot, with hopefully about half his starts in that ballpark, he should flourish. Seriously. Watch out. Good stuff on the horizon for this guy.

Rough Rotation Guess:
Ace: Derek Lowe
2nd: Brad Penny
3rd: Odalis Perez
4th: Brett Tomko
5th: Jae Seo

More information:
Brad Penny
Odalis Perez

Closer / Bullpen:

Eric Gagne's back - maybe you've heard of him. He was the guy who gave up the game-winning HR to Hank Blalock in the '04 All-Star Game, which obviously worked out for the Yankees in the Series. This Time It Counts. Maybe. We Mean It. Hey, Where Are You Going? Seriously though, the Dodgers bullpen need Gagne back, since they ...well, sucked without him. Pretty badly.

The walking 3-run inning Yhency Brazoban returns again (gotta love a 4-10 record). That's going to leave a mark. Danys Baez is the best of a mediocre lot, though - with Franquelis Osoria probably the only other guy who won't habitually start 2-run rallies. Edwin Jackson is gone now, though - he's over in the D-Rays camp. Maybe that's for the best.

Rough Bullpen Guess:
Closer: Eric Gagne
8th: Danys Baez
7th: Yhency Brazoban
Sit. Right: Franquelis Osoria
Sit. Lefty: Hong Chih-Kuo (and his 6.75 ERA) or Tim Hamulack (and his 23.48 ERA) - ouch.
Mop-up: D.J. Houlton

More information:
Eric Gagne

Infielders:

What's that you say? There's offense in Dodgerville? No way! Well, I guess signing Nomar Garciaparra, Rafael Furcal, and Bill Mueller can't be any worse, at least. In theory. What's odd is that Garciaparra was signed to play first, not short. Could be an interesting defensive experiment, although Hee Sop Choi wasn't doing much outside of a week and a half last season (and probably wouldn't do much outside of the WBC anyway this season), so the net can't be any worse, I'd think. Mueller replaces Olmedo Saenz - again, it's the > 0 thing going for him.

Furcal, on the other hand, actually replaces a good defender. Granted, his bat will more than make up for the defensive deficiency; however, he's been sick so far this year, so who knows what that means. Hopefully it doesn't mean a season more of Cesar Izturis' bat, but they've dealt with that before. Offensive stalwart Jeff Kent returns at second.

Behind the plate, Dioner Navarro certainly can't do any worse than the mess that was last season's Dodger catching. Fugly.

Projected Infield:
C: Dioner Navarro
1B: Nomar Garciaparra
2B: Jeff Kent
SS: Rafael Furcal
3B: Bill Mueller

More information:
Nomar Garciaparra
Jeff Kent

Outfielders:

Holy cow, Kenny Lofton's still alive and kicking! And running, too - 22 SB last year. Good times. He'll bat and run as much as he can get away with when he plays center, but he won't be leading off this time around, certainly not when Furcal is in the lineup. Still, though, it's amazing to me that he's around - I thought he was done 2 years ago.

Speaking of "if he was only healthy", J.D. Drew is back and recovered. When healthy, he's good stuff. Maybe he can only get injured for 30 games this season - if that's the case, that can only mean good thing for the Dodger offense. If/when he gets injured, Jayson Werth will probably slot in for him in right, unless he's injured too. Then it's possibly Jason Repko, or if you really enjoy living dangerously, Joel Guzman. Don't hold your breath on that - he's more likely to be in left, or more likely, AAA.

Jose Cruz Jr. (current age: 32 - they should put a moratorium on Jr. after a certain age, I think) is the starting left fielder. Eh. Everyone that's backing up Drew is backing him up, too.

Projected Outfield:
RF: J.D. Drew
CF: Kenny Lofton
LF: Jose Cruz, Jr.

More information:
Kenny Lofton

Extra Stuff:

Great staff here, too. At least if they're healthy. Good closer, too - it's just the rest of the bullpen and a couple of injuries away from becoming a clusterfuck, though. If that doesn't help you sleep well at night, what will, really? Yikes. All things considered, I'd put more money on things not becoming a clusterfuck than everything blowing up.

The offense should be at least somewhat improved - maybe they can win the occasional 6-5 game this season. Or win over 71 games, whichever, really. They should given their talent and this division. The team has enough veteran presence to not underachieve, although injuries could take their toll. Remember, kids, the difference between veteran and old is only 5 years. Lofton is old, everyone else is veteran. That being said, I'll make fun of their age once everyone on the Giants retires. Have to keep both ends of the rivalry pissed off at me, right?

That being said, these guys, even though fundamentally different from the Giants, actually will probably perform somewhere around the Giants, I think. Cumulatively, there's not a lot of difference. I'd guess within 5 games of .500. This is the only team I'd do that with (with the exception of the last 2 years, that was the case 6 or 7 years running, so I think it's a decent gamble).

San Francisco Giants: AARP Certified

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Starting Pitching:

There are a couple of bright spots on this staff, although they might not perform at their total peak this year. Noah Lowry and Matt Cain are the #3 and #4 starters this year, respectively. Both of them are young with a good amount of talent - Lowry was lights-out in the second half, and it's expected that he'll capitalize on having "figured it out" this season. As for Cain, he's the brightest pitching prospect in the organization - think Francisco Liriano lite, and if that confuses you, take 2 rungs down from Johan Santana and there you go. He's not there right now, but that's what kind of potential he has. In short, there'll be growing pains, but there'll also be days he just kills opposing offenses.

What happened to Jason Schmidt? Fantastic in 2003 and 2004 - fell off the face of the planet in 2005. Rumor has it he's rebounded from that horrible season, but there's still plenty of reason for concern. As of now, he's the ace in name - and if he rebounds, then he'll certainly be the ace in form, too. Behind Jake Peavy, he's probably the second-best pitcher in the NL West (and among the Top 5 in the NL). However, if he's not healthy, it's anyone's guess as to how effective he'll be.

Matt Morris is a recent transplant from the Cards. As #2 starters go, you could certainly do a lot worse. He's about what you'd expect, solid and unspectacular. Let the guys in front of and behind him have all the questions surrounding their performance. He'll do a little better numbers-wise thanks to the new park, but that's about the only change. Great complement to the roster.

As of now, Brian Hennessey should take over the #5 role. Quite honestly, I don't know a whole lot about, but his numbers indicate that he's about what you'd expect from a 5 starter. Should probably keep you in the game, unless he's going up against an ace, and won't actively try to kill you. What else do you need, really?

Rough Rotation Guess:
Ace: Jason Schmidt
2nd: Matt Morris
3rd: Noah Lowry
4th: Matt Cain
5th: Brian Hennessey

More information:
Jason Schmidt
Matt Morris
Noah Lowry
Matt Cain

Closer / Bullpen:

Look who's back. Armando "Big Game" Benitez returns after losing all of last year to injury. What's he like? Great numbers, will close a lot of games - with the exception of about 5 games a year he'll just utterly blow up in. Unfortunately, those tend to be the big high-pressure situations. As a result, everyone seems to think he sucks, when in reality, he's a lot better than people give him credit for. What's so wrong with that? Besides the bad big games, of course.

As for the rest of the bullpen, ...eh. There's not a whole lot to like here - only 1 ERA below 3 in the bunch (Scott Munter), and he doesn't strike anyone out. Okay, that's not true - lefty specialist Jack Taschner has pretty good numbers. Tyler Walker is probably the Guy You've Heard Of, along with Jeff Fassero - both more or less suck. Walker strikes guys out, though. Honestly, if there's a weak link in the pitching staff, it's somewhere between where the starters end and the closer begins. Could make for an interesting season.

Rough Bullpen Guess:
Closer: Armando Benitez
8th: Tyler Walker
7th: Scott Munter
Sit. Right: Steve Kline
Sit. Lefty: Jack Taschner
Mop-up: Jeff Fassero

More information:
Armando Benitez

Infielders:

The keystone combination here is ...well, old is a charitable understatement. Ray Durham and Omar Vizquel are both approaching decrepit. I kind of hope that no body parts fall off while they're in the field. That'd just be awkward. The biggest problem with this is that dual positional backup Jose Vizcaino (what, he's still in the league?) is actually OLDER than Durham. Great. Angel Chavez might get playing time. Maybe. He's a little young for them, though (read: 25).

Pedro Feliz is what qualifies as an "offensive threat" in this lineup. That's kind of sad, but he is playing a corner spot, so it's hard to deny him that. He can play pretty much anywhere that's not in the middle of the field, though, so it's not like he's a corner hog. As for youngsters - well, relatively speaking - he's over at first. Lance Niekro (yes, son of that Niekro) is at first, and he's the ripe young age of 27. On the plus side, 27 = major offensive year. He might hit 20 HR. I wouldn't be too optimistic, though. Not if I were you.

Behind the plate, notable offensive stalwart (read: .240 hitter) Mike Matheny assumes catching duties again. However, to be fair, they're not playing him for his offensive contributions - he's great with the glove and good with the staff. His benefits there will outweigh the drain on the lineup that he is (and really, with this lineup, it's hard to pinpoint one fault).

Projected Infield:
C: Mike Matheny
1B: Lance Niekro
2B: (the rotting corpse of) Ray Durham
SS: (a propped-up and reanimated) Omar Vizquel
3B: Pedro Feliz

Outfielders:

I remember Moises Alou back in '94 - I was a big fan of his, and I loved the idea that he was playing for his dad. Were you to tell me that he was still doing that 12 years from then, I'm not sure I'd have believed you. Now that that's the case, the more impressive part to me is that he's still offensively productive (relatively speaking - 19 HR, .321(!)). Defense is what you'd expect from someone who's 40.

Resident rookie Randy Winn (ripe and young at 32) returns in center. Chances are that he won't reprise his fantastic second half, but he'll still be better than throwing out ANOTHER 40+ guy in Steve Finley. Maybe these guys can dig up the rotting corpse of Satchel Paige if someone on the staff goes down to injury...

...or get a reanimated Babe Ruth to play in the outfield. Or keep him around just so Barry Bonds can spit on him. Eh, I've said my piece on him already. Rumor has it he might be investigated for steroid abuse in the past (go figure, right?), but I'm not sure what effect it'll have on him in terms of performance. It'll probably enhance his performance - oops, bad choice of words.

Projected Outfield:
RF: Moises Alou
CF: Randy Winn
LF: Barry Bonds

More information:
Barry Bonds
Randy Winn

Extra Stuff:

I like old jokes. There, I said it, and this is the only team I get to go to town on like that. Fun stuff.

There are two keys to the Giants success this year. Both, not surprisingly, are related to peopel getting older. The first is the maturation of the young pitchers - if Lowry and Cain can show significant progress, the odds that Bonds and company can string together enough offense to make this team at the worst competitive in the division is pretty high. What will help even more is if not everyone in the lineup falls apart - perhaps literally. If there was ever a team where hip replacement surgery was a potential concern, this is it right here.

All things equal, the NL West isn't really strong. Everything progresses as normal and these guys will be in it until the end.