How can 60k sports fans be so dumb?

ESPN.com allows users to rank the top 30 teams in college football, vote on the best backfield duo, etc etc. Fun times. And to start the season, readers can also make predictions about who will win their division, their conference, and the MNC in January. Let's take a look at how 59,982 people had voted as of last night. My votes are in bold, and and seemingly strange votes are in italics.


1) Which team will win the ACC Atlantic Division?

50.1% Florida State
20.2% Wake Forest
17.7% Clemson
7.4% Boston College
2.8% Maryland
1.7% NC State

2) Which team will win the ACC Coastal Division?

47.9% Miami (Fla.)
24.7% Duke
13.9% Virginia Tech
9.8% Georgia Tech
2.5% North Carolina
1.2% Virginia

3) Which team will win the Big 12 North Division?

49.4% Nebraska
16.9% Missouri
16.1% Iowa State
10.2% Colorado
4.8% Kansas
2.7% Kansas State

4) Which team will win the Big 12 South Division?

48.6% Texas
20.7% Oklahoma
20.4% Baylor
5.5% Texas Tech
2.8% Texas A&M
1.9% Oklahoma State

5) Which team will win the Big East?

40.7% West Virginia
26.5% Louisville
19.3% Connecticut
3.2% Pittsburgh
2.9% South Florida
2.9% Cincinnati
2.3% Syracuse
2.3% Rutgers

6) Which team will win the Big Ten?

39.4% Ohio State
18.6% Indiana
16.4% Michigan
8.3% Iowa
6.7% Penn State
2.8% Northwestern
2.5% Illinois
2.4% Michigan State
1.6% Purdue
0.8% Wisconsin
0.6% Minnesota

7) Which team will win the Pac-10?

36.1% USC
24.4% California
22.0% Arizona State
4.7% Oregon
4.6% UCLA
2.3% Arizona
2.0% Stanford
1.4% Washington
1.3% Washington State
1.2% Oregon State

8) Which team will win the SEC East Division?

42.1% Florida
20.5% Vanderbilt
18.1% Georgia
8.6% Tennessee
6.7% South Carolina
4.0% Kentucky

9) Which team will win the SEC West Division?

41.1% Auburn
23.7% LSU
20.7% Mississippi State
6.9% Alabama
5.7% Arkansas
1.9% Mississippi

10) Which of these AP Preseason Top 25 teams will win the national championship?

20.0% Arizona State
14.5% TCU
10.8% Ohio State
7.9% Notre Dame
6.7% Florida
6.3% West Virginia
4.6% Auburn
3.6% Clemson
3.2% Texas
2.6% Michigan
2.4% Florida State
2.1% USC
2.1% Iowa
1.9% LSU
1.8% Nebraska
1.7% Miami (Fla.)
1.6% Penn State
1.6% Oklahoma
0.9% Tennessee
0.8% Louisville
0.8% Virginia Tech
0.7% California
0.7% Georgia
0.4% Texas Tech
0.4% Oregon

Total Votes: 59,982


Let's just move on down the list from top to bottom.

ACC Atlantic: In my opinion, it's a no-brainer that FSU wins this division. Clemson may challenge them, but Wake Forest? 20% idiots.

ACC Coastal: Despite their loss to FSU last night, I think Miami is a little stronger than Virginia Tech. Now, Duke got shut out by Richmond, and nearly a quarter of voters liked them? Did somebody think this was a basketball poll? That's my only possible explanation.

Big 12 North: Big Red is back... er, on their way back. Everyone else still sucks.

Big 12 South: Texas is the clear favorite now that OU has again lost their starting QB. Baylor... well, if this was women's basketball. Five wins last season was the most their football team has had since 1995 in the old SWC days.

Big East: West Virginia and Louisville are the only legit teams, with Connecticut on the rise.

Big Ten: Ohio State is not just the conference favorite but the preseason #1. Indiana, on the other hand, is one of the worst teams in the conference year in and year out. Again, were people thinking basketball?

Pac 10: USC has proven that they are not actually a Pac 10 team. They are in the SEC far-west.

SEC East: Florida's a solid pick, but I like Georgia's defense and special teams. Vandy... now, come on. That wouldn't even work in basketball.

SEC West: LSU may be better than Auburn, but they play a tougher schedule. When the two face off Sept 16, the game will be on Auburn's home turf. Mississippi State will be lucky to make a bowl and should finish 5th or 6th in the division.

National Champion: So why'd I pick USC? In the real estate business, they say location is everything. In a football season with no complete team, it comes down to location location location. West Virginia plays in the Big East, and they face the biggest cupcake schedule of them all, which only got easier when Louisville lost Michael Bush for the season. Next in line of the big boys in terms of a schedule that shouldn't give them a loss is USC. The Pac 10 is a notch above the Big East for sure, but certainly not on par with the SEC or Big Ten. On top of that, USC's two supposed challenges this season - Cal and Notre Dame - looked to be greatly overrated on opening weekend, which makes their road to the MNC game much easier than say Ohio State's or even Texas's, which has drawn criticism for three creampuff nonconference games and should only be challenged by Ohio State, OU, and possibly Texas Tech. And let's not even talk about the possibility of an unbeaten SEC team, because with four teams in my top ten and another at #11, it just ain't happening. Miami's already lost, and FSU and VT probably aren't good enough to run the table. So our most likely MNC matchup will feature USC vs West Virginia, and the Mounties simply cannot keep up with nor slow down the kind of offensive firepower that USC brings to the table.

That said, this prediction is far from a certainty. Last season, everyone knew that USC would be in the title game, and that they'd either face the Texas-Ohio State winner or possibly Miami (preseason hype) or Va Tech (looked good for a while). Indeed it wound up being Texas-USC in a game for the ages. This season, every contender has a major flaw to overcome, and some (Ohio State, the SEC teams, FSU) have several games that would challenge a champion. Just putting that out there -- it could be a crazy season, folks.

Now the other picks. 20% Arizona State? Only 22% think they can even win their conference. They barely survived opening weekend against Northern Arizona, they're one of the ten worst defenses in the country, and they have no running game to speak of. 14% TCU? Well I admit, all they have to do is beat Texas Tech and the rest of their schedule are teams who couldn't beat the Texas high school champ. So there's a strong possibility that they could be one of two or less unbeatens, and hope the BCS computers aren't too tough on them. But that only means making it to the title game. How in the world is this team going to actually win it? They barely beat Baylor on opening weekend. If they play Texas, USC, OSU, even WVA, it'll be over by the end of the first quarter.

Week 1 Rankings - Another Perspective

First off, let's go ahead and call it what it is. This is a Top 22. I can't include Cal after the egg they laid in Knoxville. After that, I couldn't come up with anyone worthwhile.

1 - Texas
Their quarterback problems look at least temporarily solved after a woodshed beating of North Texas. Not only that, the scoring throughout the game was as even as you could dream - 14 points in each quarter, 1 rushing TD per quarter, 1 passing TD in every quarter but the 4th (fumble recovery). As for the D, it was completely stifling, allowing only 2 Mean Green drives above 5 yards - but both of those were long drives (70 and 80 yards, respectively). OSU will be a serious test, but this was the most complete performance from any team last week.

2 - Auburn
A dominating 40-14 W over Washington St. was a bit of an understatement; every drive but 1 went at least 20 yards and there were only 2 punts all game. What looked to be a possible weak point for the Tigers - their kicking game - was solid this week, as John Vaughn went 4-5 (made 32, 44, 52(!), 31, missed 37) and Washington St. began 7 drives from no better than their own 20. Brandon Cox turned in a solid but unimpressive performance (10/16, 156 yds), but Kenny Irons carried most of the offense. In short, better than expected.

3 - Ohio State
Hard to argue with the first quarter-plus that OSU had: 4 drives, 4 TDs. In addition, the defense was great for the first four drives, only allowing 26 yards through the first three drives and ending a NIU threat with an interception. After that, though, the game quickly turned ugly (if you're not a OSU believer) or lethargic (if you are), as OSU missed 2 FGs and fumbled twice. Meanwhile, NIU moved the ball decently well all game - after the first quarter. It's pretty easily argued that motivation is tough when you're up by 28, but OSU didn't do a great job of answering questions on defense - not to mention there's the lingering question of if they can play for 60 minutes against Texas, who's a small step up from NIU.

4 - USC
Complete domination of a team I figured would be pretty impressive in Arkansas, at Arkansas. They started out slow - it was only 16-7 at the half - but poured it on late. Huge points to the defense for forcing 5 turnovers (3 INT, 2 fumbles). Much, much better overall effort than expected, although a win wasn't a huge surprise. Warning sign: their starting safety and punt coverage specialist Josh Pinkard tore his ACL, leaving Pete Carroll with a bunch of freshmen behind him on the depth chart.

5 - LSU
The first of the not-quite-dominating teams, LSU still turned in a solid all-around 45-3 performance. JaMarcus Russell killed most of the speculation about job security with a 13/17, 253 yd, 3 TD performance. Granted, it was against LA-Lafayette, hardly a powerhouse. Warning signs: 2 fumbles on punt returns, both recovered by LA-Laf, and losing the time of possession battle. Chalk the first up to inexperience and the second up to domination everywhere else. There's still some work to be done.

6 - West Virginia
Absolute 42-10 hammering of Marshall - check out that 300+ yards on the ground! This was pretty much to be expected, though. Every TD in the first half was scored from at least 8 yards out - and that was a pass. Must cut down on penalties (8 penalties for 90 yards) - and 315 yards with almost 150 of those on the ground seems a little high for Marshall. This isn't the Marshall of a few years ago.

7 - Virginia Tech
Sure, it was 1-AA Northeastern - hardly a great battle. However, a shutout is a shutout, even if it's expected. The defense was predictably solid and the special teams chipped in with a blocked punt and a blocked FG. The surprise was QB Sean Glennon going for 222 yards, although it remains to be seen what he can do against an actual defense.

8 - Notre Dame
Hey, you won! Good job. Next time show up for the first half, 'k? When your first 5 drives only go for 34 yards - combined - that might not be a good sign. Kudos go to the defense, which rose to the occasion, although Calvin Johnson had his way with them all night. That's more a statement of Calvin Johnson's skill than it is Notre Dame's D. Don't expect that effort to cut it against Penn State this week.

9 - Florida
Florida also holds a dubious distinction as falling behind their guaranteed victory this week, falling behind 7-0 to Southern Miss before rattling off 34 unanswered. Chris Leak had a good performance, going 22/30 for 248 yds and 3 TDs. They eventually rebounded to have a strong showing, but like Notre Dame, you can't show up for just part of the game and expect to win.

10 - Florida State
Beat Miami ... and that's about it. Don't expect that rushing total to cut it. Heck, don't expect that performance to cut it. Hideous performance by everyone except for the defense. If you listen real closely, you can hear someone registering FireJeffBowden.com.

11 - Tennessee
We don't know how good they actually are yet. We'll know more after they play Florida. But what we do know is that they looked damn impressive against Cal - going up 35-0 before subbing in the second-string guys - and while that probably also says Cal sucks, it's tough not to overvalue Erik Ainge's performance in coming back from the dead. If there were any doubts about this team's toughness, check out Montario Hardesty just schooling the Cal defenders as he shook off about 5 of them at once for UT's final TD. Looks like the Cutcliffe magic worked.

12 - Michigan
Struggled more than expected against Vanderbilt, but that can probably be chalked up to just general lethargy. They'll be ready to play against one of the directional Michigans this week. Great defensive performance by limiting the 'Dores to only 144 yards, but the offense has to wake up. Look for a woodshed beating this week to make a statement to the rest of the Big 10.

13 - Georgia
Kind of here by default. Pretty much what you expected - no clear resolution at the QB position, fantastic D and a bunch of strong runners led by Danny Ware's 65 yards. This theme will continue over the course of the year, and I think I'm going to back off on my earlier prediction of a South Carolina upset this week, as Georgia looked better than I expected and South Carolina looked hideous.

14 - Miami
Yeah, ouch. Looked horrid against Florida State, but there's still more talent here than there is anywhere else. Will struggle this week, but should rebound by getting their starting RB back from suspension.

15 - Nebraska
Fine, fine, I'll buy into Nebraska after their 49-10 pasting of Louisiana Tech. Incredibly strong second-half performance - and check out the 252 yards on the ground. Don't expect that to continue against actual defenses, but it's a pretty impressive number.

16 - Clemson
A rough-around-the-edges 54-6 victory over Florida Atlantic. Love the two fumble returns for TDs, but don't love the 4 turnovers - not to mention 360 yards seems a little light against the FAU defense.

17 - Iowa
Pretty solid 41-7 victory over Montana. Yeah, weak opponent, but that's par for the course right now. Besides, 10 yards rushing allowed is impressive no matter the opponent, not to mention doing that without sacking the QB.

18 - Louisville
Lost Michael Bush for the year. Ouch. George Stripling did a good job in his absence, along with the rest of the LB corps, but Louisville's push to unseat WVU as the top program this year in the Big East just took a huge hit.

19 - Oklahoma
Didn't we see them do this last year, too? Not a good sign for your team's hopes if Adrian Peterson goes for almost 140 yards and then is told he needs to do more. Paul Thompson looked ordinary, as did the defense (allowing 17 points against UAB? not good).

20 - Penn State
This was about right; a 34-16 solid but unspectacular victory against Akron. The defense only allowed 1 drive over 13 yards in the first half. One oddity: they turned the ball over on downs 3 times in the first half - but they were in Akron territory for all of them.

21 - Oregon
Struggled early against Stanford before waking up in a big way in their 48-10 win over the Cardinal. Probably will be tested more this week with a game against Fresno St., who have more of a well-rounded team than Stanford.

22 - Texas Tech
Played SMU to 35-3. Let's go down the Tech checklist. Solid D? Check. 300+ yards passing? Check. Uncannily sloppiness blamed on the first week? Check. (9 penalties, 70 yards) UTEP presents an actual challenge, which should be exciting.

College Football - Computers and the BCS

For our readers who are interested in the specifics about the pile of feces we are fed in place of a small postseason tournament...


BCS Formula:

The BCS forumla remains an equal-weighted average of the AP Poll, Harris Interactive, and Computer Average.

Both the AP and Harris scores are calculated based on the number of points received in each of those polls, not the truncated rankings.

The Computer Average remains the exact average of a team's middle four truncated rankings from Anderson&Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe. To my knowledge, no changes to these computer formulas have been made since last season.


BCS Format:

The BCS has expanded to being five bowls this season. They are the four BCS bowls from before, with one bowl site actually hosting two games - one a full week later. This is NOT a "BCS +1" pseudo-tournament. It just means that two more teams will make it into the BCS this season. This season, the Fiesta Bowl hosts two games.

Rose Bowl: Big Ten champ vs Pac 10 champ
Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 champ vs Open
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs Open
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs Open
National Championship: #1 vs #2. Of course, being #1 or #2 pre-empts any would-be conference tie-ins to other BCS bowls.


BCS Automatic Berths:

The BCS gives automatic qualifications to:
* The champion of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10, and SEC.
* IF the champion of CUSA, MAC, WAC, or Sun Belt is in the BCS top 12, then they get an automatic bid.
* IF the champion of CUSA, MAC, WAC, or Sun Belt is ranked in the BCS top 16 and is ranked higher than the champion of a BCS conference.
* No non-BCS conference can have more than two teams in BCS bowls. So if two qualify, the higher-ranked team goes.
* Notre Dame qualifies as long as they are either ranked in the BCS top eight, or if the number of points they've scored all season minus their number of losses is a positive integer, or if the selection committee arbitrarily decides to give them a berth.
* If a team finishes second in their conference but is ranked in the BCS top 4, then they get an automatic berth if there are any slots remaining after fulfilling the above qualifications (including Notre Dame being #8).


Compy Ratings:

I will once again be doing my own computer ratings, which last season were of comparable (read: virtually identical) accuracy to the top BCS computer polls. I won't be doing this until October, as is fairly standard for computer ratings. I'll post more about this later.

College Football - my week 1 rankings

Considering games through [edit] 9/3/06

My Top 25

1. Texas - call me biased, I thought they were the only team that showed no weaknesses... though we know, a rookie QB will be a weakness against better competition. Besides, USC got to start off ranked #1 when their title defense began ;-)

2. LSU - I was sold on this team after they pummelled Miami in the bowls. Strong in all aspects of the game, but an unforgiving schedule that includes Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee all on the road. The SEC will cannibalize themselves this year... just too many good teams, and a conference championship game on top of that.

3. Ohio State - The most explosive offense in the country. Still some questions about the defense, and the kicking game may be a problem.

4. USC - The offense doesn't appear to have lost much from last season... amazing job of reloading. Defense will still be a question in the big games.

5. Auburn - In their first game, they lived up to the preseason hype with an impressive win against a BCS conference opponent. Fortunately their schedule is a little nicer than LSU's, as they face LSU, Florida, and Georgia at home.

6. West Virginia - The offense is firing on all cylinders. The schedule is right for a path to the BCS championship. But in a hypothetical vs another top 10 team, how would the 3-3-5 stack fare against a top grade offense?

7. Georgia - Tough to judge if a team is really top 10-worthy when they faced a non-div IA opponent. But Georgia looked very good. Luckily I tend to have more flexible rankings than the voters whose votes count ;-)

8. Tennessee - Just wtfpwned Cal. As someone who had predicted the upset, even I was still surprised by the easy of this victory. I hate that they impressed me so much.

9. Florida State - by default

10. Miami - by default

11. Notre Dame - One has to think the offense will get better. The next two weeks will tell. They don't deserve to be in the top 5, but look for the AP to move them to #1... (I say this only half-sarcastically)

12. Florida - Not a bad opening performance. What sucks for them is that they play 5 teams currently in my top ten. Regardless of what the computers say, this team probably faces the toughest schedule in the nation.

13. Nebraska - The offense continues to improve, and the front seven look solid. We'll see about the secondary and how the running game fares against Big 12 defenses.

14. Michigan - Great defense, strong running game. Henne needs to regain his 2004 form if they want to crack the top ten and challenge for the Big Ten title.

15. Va Tech - The quarterback question went well in week 1. Dominant defense, and the special teams blocked a punt.

16. Lousiville - The offense rolled like a juggernaut and the defense did their job. Granted, Kentucky has been one of the worst teams in the NCAA in recent seasons. The loss of Bush drops the team, but not out of the top 25.

17. Oklahoma - AD alone makes this team a threat. But once again, he may be all they have going for them. The defense should at least come closer to expectations in future weeks.

18. Oregon - Maybe the second-best offense in the Pac 10, and at this point definitely the team most likely to challenge USC for the conference title.

19. Texas Tech - They look to be about as strong as last year's squad.

20. Iowa - I'm tempted to put them higher, but Iowa has a habit of not playing up to expectations for the entire season.

21. Clemson - Again, tough to really say given their competition.

22. Penn State - I'd like to have seen a little better performance against Akron.

23. Cal - They looked more like the #23 team taking on the #9.

24. Wisconsin - Stocco's a good QB, and the running game looked decent.

25. UCLA - I got nothing, but Alabama and ASU are not deserving of a top 25 spot after their performances. I refuse to rank TCU unless they can defeat Texas Tech.

College Football - week 1 in review

I'm apologizing in advance that this isn't going to be my most in-depth analysis. Then again, given most of these matchups through yesterday, I'm not sure if there's much point at looking too much into this...


My impressions of the AP Top 25:

1. Ohio State - For the first 15 minutes of the game, they looked like the runaway #1 in the nation. The defense got burned a few times but didn't yield any points, and the offense put up 28 almost effortlessly. The rest of the game, they didn't look too impressive. 0-2 on field goals doesn't bode well if they get into close games, as OSU has a habit of doing under Tressel.

2. Notre Dame - Weak outing all around. I'm tempted to say overrated (well, I think they are at #2, but they're possibly a legit top 10 team), but they did pull out the win and the defense did shut down GT in the second half. In fact, outside of Calvin Johnson, nobody on GT's offense did anything all game.

3. Texas - This performance was everything Longhorn fans were hoping for. McCoy looked good enough at QB to let the rest of the team win games against anybody. The defense, save for the opening drive of the second half, was fantastic in all aspects of the game, giving up just over 1 yard per play and less than half a yard per rush. Selvin Young looks like he's gotten faster, and Jamaal Charles was what we'd expect. At receiver, Sweed looked great but some of the other players didn't step up. A possible injury to center Sendlein could figure into the game against Ohio State.

4. Auburn - Started out the game failing to capitalize, the Tigers settled for 4 FGs on their opening 4 possessions, and so despite dominating they were up only 12-7. On the plus side, Vaughn appears to have regained his confidence after missing numerous field goals in a loss to LSU last season. Of course they would wake up to win this game 40-14. The backfield was great, defense solid particularly against the pass. Irons was a beast.

5. West Virginia - Slaton and White torched the Herd in the spread option, but what might be particularly frightening to opponents is how good White looked passing. If this offense becomes two-dimensional, the Mounties should end up undefeated.

6. USC - What looked like it was going to be a close game quickly turned into a blowout in the third quarter, as USC continued their tradition of turning games around at halftime. Booty was great in his first start, and while a dropoff from Bush/White, Washington, Moody, and Gable appear to be a strong backfield trio. The defense again appears to be geared towards forcing turnovers, giving up 5 yards per play but with 2 fumble recoveries and 3 interceptions. The extent of this blowout also may have proven premature any speculation that Arkansas was climbing the SEC ranks.

7. Florida - Despite the 34-7 victory, this did not look like the #7 team in the nation. Leak settled into the game in the second quarter, the running game was an improvement over last season, but the defense gave up nearly 5 yards per play and benefitted from 3 picks and a missed FG.

8. LSU - Perhaps most importantly, the Tigers seem to have settled on Russell at QB and will not be doing a rotation. This was every bit the blowout you'd expect in this matchup.

9. Cal - The first team to be badly overrated. Cal surrendered 35 points in 35 minutes, with three touchdowns coming from would-be short plays combined with missed tackles. The equally touted offense was held scoreless until the game was all but decided. Longshore may have lost his starting position, though Ayoob was not much better. I still think this team needs Levy at QB for their offense to work. Marshawn Lynch looked nothing like a Heisman contender, and Forsett was completely shut down.

10. Oklahoma - You don't have to go much further to find the second team to be badly overrated, though this was a little more expected with Thompson at QB. OU inexplicably went away from Peterson in the first half, and the offense appeared better when they went to him in the second. But again that will make it difficult for them to keep up with high-octane offenses or to score against better defenses. And speaking of defense, this did not look like the #1 unit in the nation against UAB.

11. Florida State - playing tomorrow

12. Miami FL - playing tomorrow

13. Louisville - The team dominated Kentucky in every aspect of the game, scoring at ease and shutting down UK's offense. But the team probably lost Bush for the season due to injury.

14. Michigan - The defense was beastly, allowing just 2.5 ypp and 7 points off a trick play. The offense, however, was sporadic with Henne completing just 48% of his passes, Grady coughing up a fumble, and Rivas missing a FG. Hart was a workhorse, but he cannot carry this offense alone as the schedule gets more difficult.

15. Georgia - The Bulldogs dominated this game as expected. The defense and special teams were showcased and both came up with strong performances. That combination has proven deadly for Georgia, with opponents repeatedly starting at or inside their own 20 vs one of the conference's best defenses.

16. Iowa - About what you'd expect vs a non-div IA opponent. Tate could have been better and Young did cough up a fumble, but the defense was solid.

17. Virginia Tech - Glennon was a monster at QB. It's not just that he completed over 80% of his passes against a pathetic defense, but his mechanics and arm strength were impressive. I'd like to have seen the running game perform a bit better, and Davelli did miss a FG.

18. Clemson - Despite a 54-6 score, I felt that the team could have played better. Dean missed both a PAT and a FG. The defense gave up 200 yards through the air, and Proctor threw a pick and gave up a fumble.

19. Penn State - Though a solid performance, this is obviously not the team they were a season ago. The defense held the Zips to barely over 200 yards and forced two interceptions, but the offense was held under 300 and gave up two fumbles. Morelli looked solid at QB but won't be what Robinson was a year ago. Only two plays went for over 20 yards.

20. Nebraska - The Huskers looked great in all aspects on offense and against the run as well, though the secondary may be the weak spot.

21. Oregon - The offense looked scary in both facets, with Johnson providing good spells for Stewart at RB and Dixon running the spread option very well. Defense was a little more shaky, but ultimately surrendered just 10 points.

22. TCU - The Horned Frogs trailed Baylor 7-0 at halftime before rebounding to win 17-7, an unimpressive victory considering the opposition. Both teams gained 330 yards, and had the Bears not had two untimely red zone turnovers, the result may have gone in their favor.

23. Tennessee - Though aided by poor tackling, the Vols offense nonetheless looks revitalized from an awful 2005 campaign. Ainge was very sharp in the pocket and the backfield was able to pound on Cal with three solid backs. Questions at linebacker appear to have been answered, and the secondary was very impressive, particularly Wade who jarred a handful of would-be completions loose.

24. Arizona State - The Sun Devils continue to be a team that can throw the ball very well, and that's about it. The secondary was shredded by NAU, though the running game did get going once Carpenter started rolling at QB. Though losing Keller hurts, Carpenter was the correct choice for starting QB.

25. Texas Tech - Harrell had the kind of game you'd expect from a Texas Tech quarterback, proving that it is indeed the system. WRs looked good and the running game had some life. The secondary played well but I'd be concerned about SMU gaining so many yards on the ground.

Updates and A New Look

So - after a month of being dormant, I got the bit in my teeth again. Oddly, this time it's not about baseball, like all the previous posts have been about. Nope. I've got an outlet to talk about college football (and if anyone's been wondering when that other contributer was going to start showing up, now's about the time - he's huge into college football, too), and I'm going to take it.

On top of that, I've also got a much more stable internet connection now. It's hard to post entries when you're not sure if your internet connection is going to stay active long enough for you to actually post. However, that problem is fixed (I hope - I don't think it'll just outright die, for what it's worth). Does that mean regular entries again? Well, I can't guarantee that, but I'll certainly do my best.

Either way, I'm off to read about college football. Look for conference previews in the next couple of weeks.

Early Series: Week of 6/19/06

...even though the post is a day late. Still, it's the first time I've even updated in forever.

It's interleague week, which means both new matchups that aren't terribly common and horrible matchups that should never have happened in the first place. In other words, it's like any given week. There's a clear-cut "best" series, in my opinion, with a bunch of second and third-level series in terms of interest. Your mileage may vary on them.

#5: Cincinnati Reds (38-32, W1, 2-8 in last 10) @ New York Mets (43-26, L1, 7-3 in last 10)

Pitching Matchups:
6/20: Ramirez vs Trachsel
6/21: Mays vs Soler
6/22: Milton vs Martinez

There was a game on Monday as well - the Reds won that one (the current streaks reflect that). Anyway, this is your classic tale of two teams headed in opposite directions, with not much of anything going right for the Reds after their blistering start to the season, while the Mets are cruising, hammering everyone else in the NL East.

For the Reds:
Starting pitching and bullpen support are going to be the keys for them. Unfortunately, they haven't gotten either of those in the last few weeks. If they get them, they should be able to win one of the last 3 games in the series (realistically, either the 6/20 or 6/21 games).

For the Mets:
It's tough to give recommendations for what to do to win when that's what you've been doing. Offense shouldn't be a huge deal the rest of the series; Milton is the best pitcher out of the ones remaining, and I'm on record as to how much I think he sucks. I'd be surprised if they win less than 2 of the last 3 games.

#4: San Diego Padres (36-33, W1, 5-5 in last 10) @ Texas Rangers (38-32, W3, 6-4 in last 10)

Pitching Matchups:
6/20: Thompson vs Padilla
6/21: Young vs Rheinecker
6/22: Hensley vs Millwood

Fun sideplots here, as Chris Young goes back to Texas. Oddly enough, he's also the only starter from last year's Rangers rotation that's actually pitching in this series. In terms of major plots, it's the only battle between division-leading teams this part of the week.

For the Padres:
They should score, but Young will actually be hurt, as he's a flyball pitcher. Then again, he knows the park. However, these guys can't hit. This means they'll probably struggle to do much of anything in this series.

For the Rangers:
Homefield advantage and a bad hitting ballclub puts the Rangers almost entirely in the driver's seat here. They're on a minor roll, and I wouldn't be surprised if that continues as the Rangers take 2 out of 3 from the Pads.

#3: Florida Marlins (27-39, W8, 9-1 in last 10) @ Baltimore Orioles (32-39, L1, 4-6 in last 10)

Pitching Matchups:
6/20: Willis vs Cabrera
6/21: Nolasco vs Bedard
6/22: Olsen vs Benson

I'll admit it - I'm really intrigued about this 9-1 record the Marlins have put up. That's why they're on here; the kids are playing, but they're playing well. Who would've thought?

For the Marlins:
The fun part for the Fish is that any win's gravy for them. Nobody expected anything of them whatsoever, and they're at least able to sniff second place in this division, which would've gotten you sent to a mental institution if you had said that before. Still, though, why could they not take 2 out of 3 against a struggling Orioles team that, for all the changes they've made, looks like every other O's team from the last 6 years?

For the Orioles:
Homefield advantage will help (yay DH), and they should get their shots in against a bunch of young pitchers. Not to mention the Florida bullpen is horrible. The key for the O's is to have their starters not give up the game early. Look for a bunch of 6-5 games, with the O's taking two.

#2: New York Yankees (38-30, L3, 3-7 in last 10) @ Philadelphia Phillies (35-35, W2, 3-7 in last 10)

Pitching Matchups:
6/20: Mussina vs Lidle
6/21: Wright vs Hamels

Yeah, I know their records in the last 10 games are horrid. But this series is an excellent opportunity for both teams, as well as a pretty important challenge. That's a little more true for the Phils, who rose to the occasion last night with a 4-2 victory.

For the Yankees:
They need wins here after blowing leads in 3 straight games. It's probably just as important to them to get innings from their starters, which is something that's been at least somewhat lacking. Wang's complete game loss and Johnson's 7 innings were an important moment. Basically, any semblance of momentum will be viewed as a good thing.

For the Phillies:
The Mets are running away with the division, but there's not a clear challenger for second place yet, which means the Phils have a good lockdown on it. They've already won once in the series, so if they can keep that up, they should be fine to walk out of here with a series victory.

#1: St. Louis Cardinals (42-26, W4, 7-3 in last 10) @ Chicago White Sox (44-25, W4, 8-2)

Pitching Matchups:
6/20: Mulder vs Vazquez
6/21: Marquis vs Buehrle
6/22: Reyes vs Garcia

Yup, this is the big one, almost unquestionably. No teams with better records are facing off against each other, no bigger win streaks are colliding. This is the big one.

For the White Sox:
You would've thought that by this point the Tigers had faded, right? Not so much - the White Sox are still in second place in the AL Central, although they have a deathgrip on the Wild Card. We know these guys actually are this good - after all, they're the defending World Series champions. These should be good games, and the Sox should walk out with at least 2 of them. Homefield advantage, better starting pitching, and no Pujols effect give the Sox a clear advantage.

For the Cards:
When your closest competitor in the division is not only imploding, but going up against a hot team, that doesn't put you in a very stressful position. Again, they could obviously use the wins, but they're not necessary. What's important for them is hoping that Anthony Reyes puts in a good start on Thursday. He's their young gun, the wave of the future. What's also important for them is getting a healthy Pujols as quick as possible. That should happen soonish, though.

Adjusted HR Update

So - I've compiled the information from 2005 on the Adjusted HR Rate. I've also added something else in called the Adjusted Run Rate. Basically, this current incarnation is similar in idea to the Adjusted HR Rate, only it measures how many runs a team scores per HR against how many it allows per HR. I have yet to decide if it's a good or bad thing to have a negative value, although I fortunately do know what negative values mean. (Half the time with studies and analysis, the main issue is figuring out what the numbers you get actually mean. I've got that so far.) I haven't had a chance to analyze the data and figure out if I can bring up anything concrete from it, but that part's done, at least.

So Much for the Updates

Yeah, I had this brilliant idea to update daily, and then reality set in. Can't win them all, I guess. Obviously at this point it's a little late to do a Late Series for ....well, Sunday and possibly Monday, so I'll get it on Memorial Day.

I did love how I completely whiffed the Cubs/Marlins series "prediction" earlier this week. I'm going to now go ahead to blame my lack of updating on shame.

So what the hell am I going to do with this now? Well, I'm still going to do the Early/Late Series posts, as I find them interesting. With June coming shortly, that means there's a good chance I'll break out with the Divisional Updates again. That being said, though, I'm starting to run out of things to do. It's fine and all to run around each division giving general updates on each team, but you can find that on your own. That's why I've linked those guys on the right. (Look for me to finally link a Dodgers blog here shortly.) I might do closer team studies at some point during the season - it's been tempting to bust out some "Focus on [Division]" weeks where all the posts are about the specific division in question, updating all the major stories coming out of it and so forth, but again, that seems like a small cop-out to me. Not so small I won't do it, however. ;)

I've been studying some of Bill James' work lately - and that of those who have followed in his footsteps. In other words, I think I'm about to start doing some statistical analysis. What will be the point of the analysis? My initial idea was to figure out whether the small-ball approach was better than the massive homer approach - or vice versa - but that's already been done before, and I'd rather not tread along the line of insanely obvious and overdone if I can help it. That being said, I'm still keen on figuring out if there's any correlation between home runs given up / allowed and winning percentage. Specifically, this would be runs scored / HR and runs given up / HR.

One thing I haven't quite figured out is why the batter that leads the league in HR has at least 50, but it's rare to see a pitcher give up more than 35 - Eric Milton included. Will this research answer my question? Maybe.

Basically, what I'm doing - and what I will post about shortly; look for it early next week or so - is compiling a bunch of HR-related data from every team in 2005 and seeing if I can find some sort of correlation. Then I'll do the same with 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 2000; as sample sizes go, it's not a Jamesian "let's take data from the last 91 years", but 6 years should be enough to find at least SOME kind of comparison. Consider this a pre-emptive thanks to baseball-reference.com.

The comparisons that I'm tackling first:

- What is the league average HR/AB, and did teams that performed above it have better records than teams that performed below it?

- What is the league average batters/HR given up, and did teams that performed above it have better records than teams that performed below it?

- What is the correlation between the first question and the second question: in other words, what will the Adjusted HR Rate tell me?

Of course, the initial question there is what's the Adjusted HR Rate. For me, I'm defining it as thus:

AdjHR = (HR hit / AB had) - (HR given up / batters faced)

More to come later.

The AL Injured and Ineffective Report for May

Hey, this guy's got the same format as Sunday's entry. I mean, it's the same basic idea, isn't it? Look for this to degrade into blatant snarkiness about halfway through the AL Central; this may or may not coincide with the Royals.

AL EAST

Baltimore Orioles
INJURED: Brian Roberts, Daniel Cabrera
Cabrera should be off the DL (and walking everyone in sight) in the next couple of weeks. As for Roberts, he's got a strained left groin - guys can wince now, it's okay - and while he's been out for 3 weeks, chances are it'll be another week-plus before he comes back, too. Oh yeah, the shits and giggles: Hayden Penn got called up only to need an emergency appendectomy. Get well soon!

INEFFECTIVE: Javy Lopez
Hey, couldn't he hit at one point? Personal side story: I was at a Braves' game a few years ago, and there were a couple of girls (at the time, a few years older than me) who couldn't stop talking about Javy's ass. So, uh, I guess he still has that?

Boston Red Sox
INJURED: Coco Crisp
Crisp has begun his rehab process; look for a return in the next couple of weeks. David Wells will return from the DL this Friday; I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to decide if this is a good thing or a bad thing for the Sox. [buffet joke goes here]

INEFFECTIVE: Keith Foulke
Proof that it hasn't been a bad year for the Red Sox: when your closer sucks it up, you bring up what turns out to be the hottest thing in the AL East this season. Poor Sox.

New York Yankees
INJURED: Hideki Matsui, Carl Pavano, Octavio Dotel, Tanyon Sturze, Shawn Chacon
Significant injury: Matsui. He could be out for the year. As for the rest, go ahead and generate some sympathy. I'll wait here.

Go ahead.


What?


INEFFECTIVE: None, not really
I mean, nobody's expecting anything out of Bernie Williams, and Aaron Small makes the least sense stat-wise to me as anyone, ever, so it's not like this team is too surprising. Besides, they're just saving themselves for the playoffs, right?

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
INJURED: Rocco Baldelli, Jorge Cantu, Dan Miceli
Yup, this might be the only time Miceli is viewed as "important". The Rays' pen sucks that badly. Both Baldelli and Cantu should be back soon-ish; Baldelli is - or should - be first back, as he has yet to play this season.

Also? Cantu has the best 'stashe EVER.

INEFFECTIVE: rotation (except for Scott Kazmir), bullpen
Ye gods. Shitty.

Toronto Blue Jays
INJURED: A.J. Burnett, Gustavo Chacin
On one hand, it hurts to lose 2 starters. On the other hand, is anyone really surprised that Burnett ended up on the DL? They're both in rehab, though. Burnett has another 2-3 weeks, probably, and Chacin has another month-plus (UCL).

INEFFECTIVE: Aaron Hill
Another example of the Rey Ordonez corollary in action.

AL CENTRAL

Chicago White Sox
INJURED: None - not really, at least
Hermanson's on the DL, but there's enough depth that it doesn't matter. Take your time!

INEFFECTIVE: Jon Garland
Dig that 6.19 ERA. Surprisingly, he has a winning record. Mainly, he's just abysmal on the road.

Cleveland Indians
INJURED: None
Hey, I can dig these updates!

INEFFECTIVE: Aaron (f-ing) Boone, Jason Johnson, Paul Byrd
No major surprises; the Indians' pitching is slowly starting to come around, but in the meantime, 2 of their starters are still pushing the ol' 6.00 ERA mark.

Detroit Tigers
INJURED: None

INEFFECTIVE: None
Hell, even Polanco's woken up. Then again, are you surprised?

Kansas City Royals

*intermission*

...do you care? Really, do you? Let's just say they have some injuries, and the main ineffective players are all management, who keeps on bringing prospects up to have them sit on the bench. There! I'll actually write more on them at some point, I swear.

Minnesota Twins
INJURED: Shannon Stewart
Just went on the DL with a left heel injury. Shouldn't be out much past the minimum.

INEFFECTIVE: Rondell White, Jesse Crain, rotation (Santana and Liriano excepted)
In Rondell's Battle of the Mendoza Line, the line's winning. Crain ...well, is finally falling in line with what makes sense given his previous K/9 numbers. (I've been wondering how long this would last for.) Not surprisingly, the rotation aside from Santana ...uh, sucks. Baker has some potential, though.

AL WEST

Los Angeles Angels
INJURED: Casey Kotchman, Bartolo Colon
Kotchman was hitting .152 - take your time, kid. The Angels have a ton of youngsters, no need to rush. There will be plenty of opportunity to play down the line. As for Colon, MLB's site is NO help. Say he'll be back within a month. Sounds good to me.

INEFFECTIVE: offense
Seriously, I still don't know why these guys are 11 below .500. Any ideas? I'm blaming the offense until I hear otherwise.

Oakland A's
INJURED: Justin Duchscherer(erererererer), Rich Harden, Esteban Loiaza, Milton Bradley
Ouch. That's going to hurt, although again - Harden's injury shouldn't come as a huge surprise to anyone involved. Same basic thing behind Bradley. Give Dusch two more weeks, Bradley an indefinite time table, Harden another week-plus, and Loiaza much the same.

INEFFECTIVE: Dan Johnson, Mark Ellis
Johnson, shockingly, has a lower average than Mario Mendoza. Ellis ...well, should be improving, but he's not.

Seattle Mariners
INJURED: None
No help for these guys, though.

INEFFECTIVE: King Felix (dethroned), Adrian Beltre (no shit), Jeremy Reed (worthless)
Lookit me phone it in! I'd expect marginal improvement from all these guys, but nothing major, in truth. Not yet, at least, especially from Beltre.

Oops - lest I forget, Everyday Eddie bit it in the closer's role, too.

Texas Rangers
INJURED: Adam Eaton, Ian Kinsler
Neither should be out much longer. Eaton is needed in the rotation, and while Kinsler is probably the better long-term play for the Rangers, Derosa has done well in his absence, plus the Rangers are still in contention.

INEFFECTIVE: Rod Barajas
Funny thing is Laird is better across the board. Oh well. Also, Francisco Cordero lost his closer's role. Guess that counts.

Early Series Capsules: 5/22/06 - 5/25/06 - Special Losers Edition!

That's right! I'm changing things up a little bit (mainly because I'm getting tired of writing about the Red Sox and Yankees, especially since it's one of THOSE series). This time, I'm focusing on the series that only hardcore fans care about - the mismatches and alley fights. Let the games begin! (Houston @ Washington not included - next time the Nats better lose a series if they want in on this round!)

#5: Detroit Tigers (29-14, W2, 9-1) @ Kansas City Royals (10-31, L9, 1-9)
Pitching Matchups:
5/22: Verlander vs Affeldt
5/23: Rogers vs Hernandez
5/24: Bonderman vs Redman
5/25: Maroth vs Bautista

For the Tigers:
Always nice to know that the combined record of the teams involved is under .500 and it's not your fault at all. Basically, the keys for the Tigers are:
- show up
- don't have flashbacks to previous years
- don't accidentally show up in Cleveland's uniforms

Do that and they'll win 3 out of 4.

For the Royals:
Sacrifices are in order - and we're not talking sac bunts. Pick your god and kill that goat, kids. I never thought I'd actually suggest "bean their good hitters" as a legitimate strategy, but there you go.

#4: Tampa Bay Devil Rays (20-24, W4, 7-3) @ Toronto Blue Jays (23-20, L3, 5-5)
Pitching Matchups:
5/22: McClung vs Janssen
5/23: Hendrickson vs Halladay
5/24: Fossum vs Towers

For the Devil Rays:
- Don't accidentally import Florida's bullpen.
- Rock the house on Monday and Wednesday. Hope you get lucky on Tuesday.

For the Blue Jays:
- Win with Halladay, pray with everyone else.
- Hit the bullpen, hit it hard.

#3: Pittsburgh Pirates (14-30, L1, 4-6) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (24-19, L1, 6-4)
Pitching Matchups:
5/22: Perez vs Hernandez
5/23: Santos vs Vargas
5/24: Duke vs Batista

For the Pirates:
Well, since you have your 1-2 guys going in this series, that's got to be a good sign, right? Then you remember you're the Pirates. I think the motivation to temporarily fuck up Arizona's chances at getting first in the NL West might be enough to win 2. Maybe. Or maybe the motivation to not be made fun of. Feel the excitement! Come watch Jason Bay (seriously - he's good)!

For the D-Backs:
Show up, hope your pitching doesn't suck. Not a huge deal - Ollie Pee is a walking landmine, only he explodes INTO the ground (i.e., does you no harm). Your starters aren't bad, but there's nothing on their end to worry about. Viva le series victory!

#2: Los Angeles Angels (17-27, L5, 3-7) @ Texas Rangers (22-21, L1, 4-6)
Pitching Matchups:
5/22: Escobar vs Loe
5/23: Lackey vs Padilla
5/24: Weaver vs Tejeda

For the Angels:
WTF? Dooooood. Hit. Seriously.

For the Rangers:
No biggie - just pitch decently and hope for the best. Until the Angels realize they're supposed to be good, you can beat up on them.

#1: Chicago Cubs (18-25, W1, 3-7) @ Florida Marlins (11-31, L7, 2-8)
Pitching Matchups:
5/22: Marshall vs Nolasco
5/23: Wood vs Olsen
5/24: Maddux vs Moehler

For the Cubs:
No Glendon Rusch + Wood = series victory. Well, push a couple of runs across, too. Maybe that's the harder part of this.

For the Marlins:
Curl up into a ball, wait for 2007. Oh, and release your bullpen. Seriously. Start over.

The NL Injured and Ineffective Report for May

First off, now that summer's hit (and classes haven't), expect more than just two updates a week. I'm going to try and do two weeks of daily updates - we'll see how well that goes. As of now, I've written the updates for most of this week; again, one of the things I do is write updates by hand first (partially so it lets me arrange my thoughts, partially because I don't have a laptop and one of my jobs gives me a TON of downtime, so I can do things like that).

So this format is kind of obvious, I think; we're going by division and team, highlighting the injured and ineffective players on each team. Note that we're talking about the egregiously ineffective players - the 25th man, etc., don't really count. Not too much. ;)

NL EAST

Atlanta Braves
INJURED: Kelly Johnson, Kyle Davies
Johnson is just now beginning his rehab assignment in the low minors. Look for him to return to the majors in a couple of weeks - an early June target date seems likely. As for Davies, he just went on the 15-day DL (even though the depth chart says 60-day DL; we're going with the "out 6 weeks" option). Look for an early July return date.

Other notable injuries include Horacio Ramirez (still out with a hamstring pull) and Mike Hampton (still out for the year).

INEFFECTIVE: Jorge Sosa
Thanks to injuries and general ineptitude, Jorse Sosa has backed into the third spot in the rotation. He's responded beautifully with a 1-5 record and 5.55 ERA. Way to support the team, Jorge.

Florida Marlins
INJURED: Jeremy Hermida, Sergio Mitre
Hermida should be back any day now; heck, he should've been back this weekend. However, that's not the case, obviously, as he's still hanging out on the DL. It'll help the offense if he actually performs up to potential - and not the .250 he had put up before getting injured. Mitre strained his shoulder in his last start, landing him on the DL. The Marlins need his arm back in the rotation as soon as possible.

INEFFECTIVE: the whole damn bullpen
Seriously - if you've blown 4 leads in 5 days, that's not a good sign. Especially when your team is going to struggle to win already. Getting Carlos Martinez and Franklyn German back should help marginally.

New York Mets
INJURED: Victor Zambrano, Brian Bannister
Shhhh - don't mention the K-guy around Mets fans right now. Zambrano's out for the year. Bannister should be back soon - again, the Mets have almost been forced to bust out Lima Tima this year (have once already), so getting a dependable arm at the back end of the rotation is their highest priority right now. They've adopted the "throw shit against the wall" strategy back there right now.

INEFFECTIVE: Cliff Floyd
Floyd has yet to either 1) get hot or 2) get injured. That sort of streakiness won't last.

Philadelphia Phillies
INJURED: Mike Lieberthal, Aaron Rowand
Lieberthal's been down for a couple of weeks; he was eligible to be activated from the DL as of yesterday, but don't expect him back for another week at least. As for Rowand, he met the wall the hard way about 10 days ago. That'll probably be another couple of weeks.

INEFFECTIVE: Ryan Madson, Gavin Floyd
Well, if it isn't pitching injuries, it's shitty pitching, right? Floyd has been the better of the two, checking in with a skinny 5.71 ERA. Madson? 6.95 ERA. At least he's in the bullpen now, making room for Hot Shit Du Jour Cole Hamels. More on him later on this week!

Washington Nationals
INJURED: most of the pitching staff, Brian Schneider, and a partridge in a pear tree
It's always a good sign when 4/5 of your potential rotation is on the DL, right? Not to mention your starting catcher. Guzman? Eh. He can stay.

INEFFECTIVE: Livan Hernandez, Felix Rodriguez, Joey Eischen
...and your other starter is throwing BP. Plus two of your guys in the 'pen are walking gascans. No wonder this team sucks.

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs
INJURED: Derrek Lee, Mark Prior
Pour a 40 out for Kerry Wood - he's healthy! Won't last. Prior should be ready to go soon, and should go back to the DL shortly afterward. As for Lee, well, he was the Cubs' offensive lynchpin. I actually feel bad for them because of him being on the DL. Really. Look for Wade Miller to be back late in the year, by the way.

INEFFECTIVE: Juan Pierre and a couple of "no shit" guys
Pierre should turn it around; I wouldn't expect a .235 average to last, as that's way below his historical average and - quite frankly - he's too good for that. As for Rusch and Neifi!, uh ... yeah, no shit, guys.

Cincinnati Reds
INJURED: Ken Griffey, Jr., Austin Kearns
lol j/k
Cody Ross actually is injured, but he's the Reds' third catcher. Whatever.

INEFFECTIVE: Nobody?
I mean, David Weathers hasn't been great, but Coffey has, so damage minimalized. No wonder they've done well so far this year - helps when your pitching is good. Minus Eric Milton, of course. He's permanently on the ineffective list.

Houston Astros
INJURED: Chris Burke, Brandon Backe
Burke should be back quite soon, which gives the Astros ample opportunity to not play him. (Sorry, bitter.) Backe hasn't had much of an opportunity to perform so far this year; he went down with an UCL injury and probably has a couple of weeks minimum before he can return. Don't expect him 'til mid-June, I'd say.

INEFFECTIVE: Jason Lane
Preston Wilson (.247) comes close, but he's streaky. Jason Lane, however, is currently rocking a .209 average. Bonus! Dig those 9 HR, though - plus 3 doubles and 17 singles. In 139 AB. At least he's slugging .424, and his ISO (isolated power) is high as hell.

Milwaukee Brewers
INJURED: J. J. Hardy, Ben Sheets (duh), Tomo Ohka
Hardy is a recent addition to the disabled list; he wasn't doing great (.242) before he got injured, so maybe 3-4 weeks recovery will help. Ohka has been on the DL for a while, which hopefully for the Brewers means a return soon. As for Sheets, hell, who knows? He's approaching Prior/Wood DL territory between this year and last. Sucks, too.

INEFFECTIVE: Doug Davis
Not helping the Brewers' case is the guy who evidently thinks home is second (39 BB, 36 K). Feel the excitement!

Pittsburgh Pirates
INJURED: Sean Casey, Joe Randa
Now, if you're any other team with no shot, injured vets mean let the kids play. If you're the Pirates, that means Craig Wilson and Freddy Sanchez. Oops. At least Wilson has been rocking it - so he'll be back on the bench as soon as Casey returns. Viva la future! (disclaimer: have never taken French) Oh yeah - Kip Wells, too. Whoohoo.

INEFFECTIVE: Oliver Perez, Zach Duke
Or if you're the Pirates, you also call these guys your 1-2 punch. Uh.... uh-oh. Okay, so Duke hasn't been that bad. It's funnier if I include him, though - if it's just Ollie Pee, then he feels all singled out, and I don't want to make anyone feel bad here. (WARNING WARNING: ERA approaching Limian stage - 6.98 for Oliver Perez)

St. Louis Cardinals
INJURED: Sir Meatball
One would argue this is a good thing, as it lets young gun Anthony Reyes get some major league experience. I, however, will make the requisite "strained esophagus" joke and let it lie. He'll be back in a few weeks.

INEFFECTIVE: the outfield offense(ive)
Edmonds gets a minor free pass here, as he's at least hit with guys on. The other outfielders? Not so much. No rest for the weary (or in this case, sucky)!

NL WEST

Arizona Diamondbacks
INJURED: Russ Ortiz
Hm. Ortiz's injury lets young gun Juan Cruz into the rotation. Wonder if the D-Backs won't mind if the 'ol 6.91 ERA (Lima alert!) takes his time getting back. Of course, Cruz is inconsistent, so maybe they want a consistent (losing) pitcher in the rotation.

INEFFECTIVE: Tony Clark, Orlando Hudson
Hudson's doing his best Rey Ordonez impersonation at second. As for Clark, he was surprisingly good last year - maybe this is his season-long regression to the mean. Or just not too good in platoon duty (on the short end of the stick). Oh, and Shawn Green (warning: NSFW) - well, he is hitting .327, but dig those 3 HR.

Colorado Rockies
INJURED: Yorvit Torrealba and a bunch of guys you don't care about
Well, you probably don't care about ol' Yorvit either. Fair enough.

INEFFECTIVE: Todd Helton
Blame it on whatever he had earlier. I don't know what on earth he had, but even though he says he's healthy, something's obviously wrong. If he can get it going, the Rockies will sorely need his bat to stay near the top of the division. And they need more than just a largely empty .292 average, especially since he normally hits about 30 points higher than that at least.

Los Angeles Dodgers
INJURED: Eric Gagne (le sigh), and a bunch of guys I don't want to type out
Seriously - 8 guys on the DL already? Go Dodgers! Obviously, Gagne is the most needed out of all of them, although some outfield depth couldn't hurt. No clue on timetables here, sorry. I'm on a deadline. Navarro is the least important, as Martin has done well in his absence.

INEFFECTIVE: Jae Seo
Expected to be a sleeper-good candidate, has just slept through the season so far. At least Aaron Sele is around to "push" him.

San Diego Padres
INJURED: Ryan Klesko
2006 charter member of the All-Wally Pipp Team.

INEFFECTIVE: Nobody?
Haven't been paying enough attention - although a Vinny Castilla sighting is enough to make me wonder. It's not like you expect much out of him - just not being Sean Burroughs is enough.

San Francisco Giants
INJURED: Moises Alou, Lance Niekro
Alou should be back to his usual ways soon (make your own joke, I've already made one shit joke today). Honestly, the Giants could use him as protection from Barry Bonds. As for Niekro, he just went on the DL - even though he's been out for a week already. Oh well. Sore shoulder, no timetable, whatever, the usual.

INEFFECTIVE: ESPN's poster boy
Seriously, you can read about him somewhere else. Not that I don't like you guys... but yeah, there's been enough already. Oh, and Pedro Feliz isn't too good (who?).

Late Series Capsules: 5/19/06-5/21/06

Hey hey, let's hear it for being late! Multiple updates are hopefully coming this weekend. We'll see how well that actually works, though.

It's an interleague weekend, so 14 series are between leagues. The remaining series? Made the top 5. What didn't? Well, Cubs @ Sox. Yup. Sorry, kids - too much of a team disparity. Some clunkers out there, too - Pittsburgh/Cleveland, Baltimore/Washington, and Florida/Tampa Bay (toilet bowl of the weekend - at least it's indoors).

#5: Atlanta Braves (21-20, W4, 8-2) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (22-18, L1, 5-5)
Pitching Matchups:
5/19: Thomson vs Vargas
5/20: Smith vs Batista
5/21: Hudson vs Webb

For the Braves:
Well, it finally happened - they got hot, and in a big way. They're the second-hottest team in the majors (behind Detroit) at the moment, and there's no reason why they should slow down here. Travis Smith gets his first start of the season on Saturday, and that's their worst chance to win. With their pitching, Francouer finally waking up, and the stadium, they should walk out of here with 2 out of 3. If not? Well, they should be .500 at worst. Hudson's been hot, too.

For the Diamondbacks:
While they're not on a roll, they need this series. The NL West has everyone within 2 games of first at the moment, and with the exception of Colorado, they have the toughest opponent. Will they win this? It's possible, but Claudio Vargas needs to have a good start tonight, as does Miguel Batista on Saturday.

They should win Saturday's game, which means they have to win one of the two pitching crapshoots. It could happen.

#4: Toronto Blue Jays (23-17, W2, 7-3) @ Colorado Rockies (22-19, L1, 4-6)
Pitching Matchups:
5/19: Towers vs Cook
5/20: Taubenheim vs Francis
5/21: Lilly vs Fogg

For the Blue Jays:
Uh, this is a rivalry game. I guess. When in Rome? Anyway, this is the Blue Jays' first - and only - look at Coors this season. They're currently blistering the ball to a team .299(!) clip. That makes their suboptimal pitching worthwhile.

What can they expect? They'll rough up Fogg, more than likely, giving them a good shot at winning Sunday. Cook's been tough lately, Francis is better at home than on the road ... who knows? A series win isn't unlikely, but might be more difficult than originally thought. They do have the easiest matchup of the top 3 AL East teams, though.

For the Rockies:
Tough draw. They hold - amazingly - a pitching advantage. Unfortunately, they haven't hit well at home. Go on the road for this series and they'd probably win it convincingly, but at home? Maybe not. Bet you never thought you'd read that.

Can they win it, though? Sure. Cook and Francis will keep them in the early games, and they should win Saturday's for sure. (This is the first time I've even heard of the Blue Jays' pitcher.) That gives them the pitching advantage tonight and the possibility of a Coors crapshoot on Sunday. They might sweep, which they'll need.

#3: New York Yankees (23-16, L1, 5-5) @ New York Mets (24-16, L2, 3-7)
Pitching Matchups:
5/19: Johnson vs Gonzalez
5/20: Mussina vs Martinez
5/21: Chacon vs Glavine

For the Yankees:
Another week, another marquee series. Surprise, surprise. They've got their big guns going this time, too.

Only problem is their offense is banged up - specifically, their outfield. They should score on Friday, but the other two days are anyone's guess. They owned Pedro back when he was with the Sox; will that change now that Pedro has switched leagues?

For the Mets:
Tough break with Zambrano going down means that Jeremi Gonzalez sniffs a start for the first time in a while. Not good if you're the Mets. Could be Lima Time, though.

However, they've got their 1-2 punch in the final two games, meaning anything less than a series victory will be disappointing.

(For the record, this series falls under the "you'll hear about it somewhere else" exception.)

#2: Boston Red Sox (23-15, L1, 7-3) @ Philadelphia Phillies (22-18, L3, 6-4)
Pitching Matchups:
5/19: Clement vs Lieber
5/20: Beckett vs Myers
5/21: DiNardo vs Lidle

For the Red Sox:
It's a slightly easier draw for the Sox than the Yankees this weekend, even though this series got the #2 spot nod since the Phils are hotter than the Mets. They're getting healthy, which is good, as they're behind the gun - slightly - on pitching matchups.

Beckett is unquestionably their best pitcher going in this series, but they also drew the 1-2-3 of the Phils. Their familiarity with Lidle from previous seasons (Blue Jays) should help on Sunday. They could either get swept or win 2 out of 3, but a sweep might be a little too much to ask for.

For the Phillies:
Hey, solid pitching and a floundering Mets team? Sign me up! Huge motivation this weekend for the Phils - a good weekend and they could catch the Mets.

Is a good weekend possible? Totally - they lucked out only having to face Beckett. Just as importantly, David Ortiz will either be a PH or at first for the Sox. No reason why they shouldn't win the series here. Anything less will be subpar.

#1: Cincinnati Reds (24-17, W1, 4-6) @ Detroit Tigers (27-13, W7, 7-3)
Pitching Matchups:
5/19: Claussen vs Bonderman
5/20: Milton vs Maroth
5/21: Harang vs Robertson

For the Reds:
Uh-oh. Eric Milton's back. That's the equivalent of your mother-in-law dropping by because she was in the area.

That being said, Brandon Claussen and Harang have both been pleasant surprises, and while the Tigers have been tough pitching, they're not unbeatable. Unfortunately, the Tigers are also pretty hot. The key for the Reds will be getting ahead early and hoping the bullpen (with possible new closer Todd Coffey?) doesn't blow it.

Can it happen? 2 out of 3 isn't inconceivable. I can't pick Eric Milton to win, though.

For the Tigers:
Hot team + struggling visitors = fresh meat. Right?

This group of - still - overachievers (how much longer can we say that before they're for real? 2 weeks? 1 month?) throw their younger - but not youngest - guns out there this weekend. That'll keep them close.

What'll put 'em over the top? The Tigers know how to hit in Comerica. The Reds might not. The games will be closer than you think, but the Tigers should walk out of here with 2 - and they need to, as the Sox get an easier draw.

Divisional One-Month Updates

Maybe the better title would've been "Divisional One-Fifth of the Season Updates." That's kind of clunky, though, so you're stuck with that title. What can you figure out in the first month of the season with the standings? Well, if you can pick the divisional winners from that, I'd be surprised. However, you can figure out who's probably not going to get the title. That's what this is focusing on - who's probably out of it already.
(Standings are valid through Sunday night's games, since that's when I have the records.)

AL EAST
1 - Boston (19-12, 0 GB)
1 - New York (18-11, 0 GB)
3 - Toronto (16-14, 2.5 GB)
4 - Baltimore (14-19, 6 GB)
5 - Tampa Bay (13-19, 6.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- None
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Baltimore
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- None

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

No real surprises in terms of ordering. I don't think anyone outside of homers expected the breakdown to be that different.

Both Baltimore and Tampa Bay are up against it when it comes to staying competitve in the division. Given Tampa Bay's pitching woes (they suck except for Kazmir) and hitting ineffectiveness (Cantu and Baldelli on the DL, Huff just off the DL), they're probably toast - but not yet. Baltimore can both hit and pitch, but they tend to do both at once. In other words, they're streaky, not consistent.

Toronto probably needs to get Burnett back soon; the early performance of Alexis Rios has helped, though. They have the firepower available on the team to make things interesting at the top.

Boston? Viva le Papelbon.
New York? They can hit.

AL CENTRAL
1 - Chicago (22-9, 0 GB)
2 - Detroit (20-12, 2.5 GB)
3 - Cleveland (17-15, 5.5 GB)
4 - Minnesota (13-18, 9 GB)
5 - Kansas City (7-22, 14 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Detroit
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Minnesota
- Cleveland (mildly)
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- Kansas City

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

Let's get the obvious out of the way first. Kansas City sucks (but inexplicably owns Cleveland) and the White Sox still own everyone.

As for the rest of the division, surprises abound. Cleveland is mildly struggling (maybe they should beat the Royals; that'd help) - they're hitting, but the pitching has struggled mightily. With the amount of talent they have, there's no reason why they can't go on a roll.


Minnesota has deeper problems. Everyone figured that they couldn't hit (which is right). Nobody predicted the rotation would struggle. Johan Santana should work it out soon (and has showns signs of doing so already), as might Scott Baker, but their best help - Francisco Liriano - is locked into the bullpen thanks to Jesse Crain's ineffectiveness.

Detroit has been the biggest surprise. Can they keep it up? Everyone's playing over their heads right now, but the interesting thing is that they're not too above their heads. In addition, their historical performers (the guys who have done well before) haven't woken up yet. This might last longer than anyone expects.

AL WEST
1 - Texas (17-15, 0 GB)
2 - Oakland (16-15, 0.5 GB)
3 - Los Angeles (14-18, 3 GB)
4 - Seattle (13-20, 4.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Texas
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Los Angeles
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- None

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

Oddly enough, Texas is getting by on better-than-expected pitching. Their offense hasn't quite snapped in like everyone thought - yet. That won't last. The question for them is will the pitching perform well enough for long enough.

Seattle has kind of devolved into the King Felix show. Well, that and the "Everyday Eddie Ain't Everyday no More" miniseries; J.J. Putz is the main guy now. The rest of the team is kind of boring, in truth; it's not a horrible team (there are worse out there), but there's not any one thing they do well.

Anaheim, on the other hands, is great at not giving their starters run support. The back end of the rotation has some issues thanks to Colon's injury. In addition, they have this weird youth/vet thing going on with their hitters that you normally only see with rebuilding teams. Theyll work it out, though.

Oakland normally struggles early. This start can only mean good things for them once they go 22-4 in August (give or take).

NL EAST
1 - New York (21-10, 0 GB
2 - Philadelphia (17-14, 4 GB)
3 - Atlanta (13-18, 8 GB)
4 - Washington (11-21, 10 GB)
5 - Florida (8-21, 12.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- New York
- Philadelphia
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Washington
- Atlanta
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- Washington
- Florida

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

Florida and Washington are both bad. Florida kind of has a purpose to its performance; the Nats don't (but that may change soon). Atlanta hasn't pitched as effectively as expected (see Jorge Sosa, early Tim Hudson) and hasn't hit well either. That might turn around soon, but it may not matter by that point.

Philly is marginally better than expected, and in a divsiino with one struggling team and two bad ones, that's about all it takes to look like a challenger to the Mets.

The Mets have opened up strong. However, there are some cracks in the castle walls: Cliff Floyd has struggled and Victor Zambrano is out for the year. If Floyd stays healthy, he'll turn it around, but the Zambrano injury weakens the back end of the rotation. On top of that, movig Heilman into the rotation would weaken a pretty solid bullpen.

NL CENTRAL
1 - Cincinnati (21-11, 0 GB)
2 - St. Louis (20-12, 1 GB)
3 - Houston (19-12, 1.5 GB)
4 - Milwaukee (16-16, 5 GB)
5 - Chicago (14-16, 6 GB)
6 - Pittsburgh (9-24, 12.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Cincinnati
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- Chicago
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- Pittsburgh

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

To nobody's surprise, Pittsburgh's been bad. They're stuck in a veteran/youth mold as well, and should probably just let the kids play. At least it'll be productive. Chicago hasn't played well, but injuries can be blamed for that mostly. They need offense in a bad way.

Cincinnati has had much better than expected pitching. Will it last? Maybe; Arroyo and Harang aren't bad, and with those bats, .500 the rest of the way is possible at least.

Houston has ben good, but blame it on a surprisingly good back-end of the rotation. Even with some changes, things might stay constant for them. Same with Milwaukee; look for them to stay kind of close, then make a late-season push.

St. Louis? Pujols is Pujols, and he's bailing out an underperforming offense.

NL WEST
1 - Colorado (19-13, 0 GB)
2 - Arizona (18-14, 1 GB)
3 - San Diego (16-15, 2.5 GB)
4 - Los Angeles (15-17, 4 GB)
5 - San Francisco (14-17, 4.5 GB)
ABOVE EXPECTATIONS:
- Colorado
- Arizona
BELOW EXPECTATIONS:
- None
PRE-EMPTIVELY ELIMINATED:
- None

DIVISION SYNOPSIS:

This division is pretty much a race to five games over .500, and as far the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants are around that range. All these teams have some kind of hole - usually back-end pitching and offense - so they'll stay close.

Probably the seaosn's biggest surprise has been the Rockies getting it done- on the road no less. With Helton back, it's not outside the realm of possibility they keep this up. Stranger things have happened, and it's not exactly a powerhouse division in the first place.

Arizona is also a surprise; however, their situation is slightly different than Colorado's. If they can rely on Webb and their offense, who knows? They stand a chance.

Life After the Storm

First off, if you're looking for the Early Series post, it's here. This is a personal thing - a little bit of Nats love, if you will. Anyway.

The Nationals finally have an owner, and even MLB is admitting to it. The Lerner group was selected as the winning bidders on the team over the "token minority" cries of Marion Barry and a few others in DC politics (I forget the names).

As a Nationals (former Expos) fan, what does this mean? Honestly, I don't know yet. I've gotten so used to fandom without a direction that having one - at least theoretically - is kind of shocking. Granted, it's just as likely that he takes the team and guts it as it is that he jacks the payroll up and signs a few free agents. Let's look ahead to a possible Best-Case / Worst-Case Scenario.

BEST-CASE

The Mets got old, the Braves reverted to mid-80's form, and the Phillies never found pitching. This leaves the division wide-open, and the Nationals' new park (which opened on time) is better on hitters than RFK was. A retooled offense (led by Alfonso Soriano) and a rejuvenated pitching staff lead the Nationals to the first division crown (and over .500 record) this century.

Leadership is smart and saavy, as one of the first things that the Lerners did was fire Jim Bowden. Taking the approximate equivalent of a "Moneyball with money" approach allowed the Nats to both replenish their farm system and sign a series of solid, if unspectacular free agents. They give the Nationals a surprisingly deep lineup that - while it's not on the level of the early 2000's New York Yankees - is quietly dangerous. No major home run threats aside from Soriano (a holdover from the earlier era), but 25-HR types abound. Even Soriano found some plate discipline, and he even figured out how to be Rickey lite.

WORST-CASE

Jim Bowden is immediately signed to a 12-year extension. He responds by signing every pitching currently on the DL in the major leagues to 3-year guaranteed contracts. In addition, he forgets to sign a shortstop one season and the nats have to bring a guy up from rookie ball.

The new owners adopt an Orioles mindset. New free agent signings are made chiefly as "name" signings, even though their contribution to the team's success is minimal. Ryan Zimmerman is traded in 2008 for Jose Lima. The farm system is systematically gutted of anyone with talent, what little there was in the first place. As most of the money is tied up in the big leagues, the forces the nats to draft based on price, not talent.

Attendance suffers. 10 years from now, the Lerners sell the team back to MLB and buy the Marlins (after nuking the radio deal. They never got a TV deal in the first place). The new stadium collapses under its own weight on Opening Day.

What's likely? A combination of the two. I'm figuring a payroll increase, but just because we'll have money doesn't mean we'll spend it wisely. It's just as likely as the plan will be haphazardous as it will be clear. Even if Bowden's gone, there's no guarnatee that his replacement will be any better (Scott Layden -> Isiah Thomas, anyone?). Good drafting falls victim to injuries and unfulfilled expectations. Revenue streams might not be there.

We'll just have to see. I'd like to be optimistic, but I'm afraid of it - the Nats have killed me before. Who knows? Maybe this time my faith will be rewarded. Maybe this owner will give a damn about the team, about the city, about the fans. Hell, I'll just settle for caring about something beyond the bottom line.