Week 2 Rankings - Another Perspective

Again, I'm going 22 deep this team. Just missing out are BC (got outplayed, even if they walked away with the W), Cal (can't get the Tennessee game out of my head), Clemson (see above, also take a look at their injuries when you get a chance), and UCLA (not shabby, but nothing to quite write home about at the moment). Here's the guys who made it.

1 - Ohio State
What's more to ask? Exposed - not just beat - a Texas team that was pretty highly regarded. Anthony Gonzalez looks to be better than most everyone thought, although the rushing game suffered (if nearly 100 yards can count as suffered). Proved that even with going up against a defense with one possible weak point, pounding that weak point into the ground is enough to effectively dominate the game. Had Texas kept pounding the ball, it might've been a different story, but for now, they beat what was the #2 team in country, so to the top they go.

2 - LSU
I'd like to issue an apology to LSU for not thinking they were a complete team - I was wrong. The defense has scored more points than they've given up so far this season (12-6), which is more than you can really ask for from a defense. In addition, the D has yet to give up over 200 yards in a game, including not allowing any RB to go over 55 yards so far. They've forced 5 interceptions, 4 fumbles, and has 6 sacks. Not to mention that their starting safeties were part of the '03 BCS championship team, so they've got leadership that has won before. Offensively, there's no kind of QB controversy, as JaMarcus Russell has done everything that's asked of him, averaging ~225 ypg passing, 5 TD/1 INT. They've got an incredibly deep rushing attack that has so far been "limited" to 411 yards rushing. Oh, and keep in mind that if Russell falters, they can either bring in the guy that whipped Miami last year or one of the best young QBs in the nation. I'd talk about the Arizona game, but really, those numbers up there pretty much sum up what happened: they made Arizona look like LA-Lafayette.

3 - Auburn
I was a little worried last week that Brandon Cox might not be maturing quite as fast as I thought. Uh, never mind. 249 yards passing, 67% completion percentage, 2 TDs against a strong Miss. State defense that limited the Spurrier attack to just under 200 yards passing (no mean feat). Irons was limited (probably because the defenes was keying on him), but Auburn did what any good team does in that situation: shut down one option and the other one will beat you. (See OSU/Texas, too.) Unlike LSU, the defense has allowed more points than they've scored. Clearly, this defense is horrendous - what kind of shoddy defense allows nearly 200 yards to Miss. St.? Seriously. (Note: preceding sentences may have been sarcasm.) Oh - don't look now, but John Vaughn hasn't missed a FG yet this season. Think that may play a role against LSU?

4 - Notre Dame
See, this is what everyone expected from ND. Functionally speaking, the game was really a 41-3 hammering on Penn St., who put up 14 in the 4th after the Irish were bringing guys in from the stands to play D. I'm not really sure what to talk about, as not only did most people see this game, but even a simple glance at the stats will tell you the amount of dominance that ND had. One thing that might be important to note is PSU did move the ball decently between the 20s, but that was about it, and even that's debatable. The only reasons they're not higher are: 1 - I want to see more of a rushing attack and 2 - I'm not quite sold on their defense, as I want to see them play a strong offensive team. PSU isn't, quite frankly. Too much youth.

5 - USC
Bye week - repeat what I said last week about them, as I didn't get a chance to watch any of their practices this week. Must be because they don't play anywhere near where I live and I don't have a press pass. Minor details.

6 - West Virginia
Ho hum - another week, another blowout against a clearly overmatched team, another 300+ yards on the ground. Not a lot through the air, but quite frankly, who cares? This game only had 2 TDs from beyond 15 yards out - both on Steve Slaton runs. The thing is, this offense should be beatable - shut down the rushing game and force Pat White to beat you with his arm. Of course, this is way easier in theory than in practice - I can only think of a few front 7s that have a shot of doing that.

7 - Florida
This is the Florida we expected, too. Hammered UCF to the tune of 42-0 (34-0 at the half); the defense held UCF to under 200 yards total, including less than 50 on the ground. Leak played very well, going 19/29 for over 300 yards and 4 TDs. There is some cause for concern, however: UF had 4 turnovers and 10 penalties for 71 yards. That can't happen this week if they want to be victorious in Knoxville.

8 - Virginia Tech
Blocked punt, fumble, INT return for a touchdown (4 picks total), all in one game. Did I really need to tell you that was the Hokies doing that? Sign of concern: Brandon Ore was responsible for over half the offense and the Hokies were outgained 268-224; of course, when you begin two drives at the UNC 1, that makes it hard to get a lot of yardage.

9 - Louisville
So much for my "they're dead after Michael Bush went down" theory. 318 yards rushing - even against Crackerjack U - is pretty impressive, although Miami's D is a little better than Temple's. Miami should be a tough matchup for them; if Louisville can walk away with a win, then that'll be a sign that the Big East has at least two high-quality teams this year. Injury warning: starting CB and KR Rod Council is out for the year.

10 - Michigan
Good comparison last week between Michigan and, oddly, Boston College. The major difference is that Michigan is much better than BC, as they pretty much ran with impunity all over Central Michigan this week. There's room for improvement, though; Henne needs to step up, as 113 passing yards won't cut it against Notre Dame this week. It's looking like Michigan will need all the points they can get.

11 - Georgia
Tereshinski unintentionally brought some resolution to the QB situation - by getting injured. Matthew Stafford played about how you'd expect from a freshman QB with high hopes: some great decision-making and some head-scratchers. He's got some time to work it out, though. UAB will be a test, but Stafford gets UAB, Colorado, and Ole Miss before Tennessee comes to town. Oh, the rest of the team? About what you'd expect: 200 yards rushing, a shutout against South Carolina. Maybe that Spurrier offense isn't quite as potent as we thought it was initially - or maybe Georgia's D is that good. They'll need to be solid until Stafford learns the ropes.

12 - Nebraska
They're in the driver's seat in the Big 12. That may change this week, as they have yet to play a true quality opponent, but they've looked good against the teams they have played so far - basically, they've done exactly what was expected of them. Right now, that's pretty good. USC will be a better barometer of their true skill level, but this team could very easily go 10-2 or even 11-1.

13 - Texas
Good news: CB Tarrell Brown is reinstated. Bad news: almost everything else. Colt McCoy looked ...well, like a freshman, as he went 19/32 for only 154 yards. In addition, Texas accomplished a rare feat: their average yards/pass attempt was less than their yards/rush. Given the choice between relying on two solid running backs in Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young or freshman McCoy, which would you choose? If you said McCoy, you could be Greg Davis. Texas got burned in the passing game, but that should improve with the readdition of Brown.

14 - Florida St.
24-17 victory over Troy. I'll say that again: 24-17 victory over Troy. (Who?) Bingo. How the hell did this happen? This game should've been a blowout, and it certainly shouldn't have been 17-10 Troy at Tallahassee in the 4th quarter. Why was it? 83 yards rushing (3 ypc), 43 pass attempts, 7 fumbles. You're telling me that Jeff Bowden couldn't figure out a scheme that'd be more effective against Troy? When he watches game video, what game is he watching, anyway? Wheel of Fortune? Other bad news: Paul Griffin, Emmanuel Dunbar, and Letroy Guion - all DTs - are out for the year.

15 - Tennessee
In retrospect, the 31-30 victory over Air Force makes perfect sense. Tennessee's young linebackers and defensive line could be easily confused by something as complex as the triple option, making Air Force's 250+ yards on the ground understandable. Chalk it up to gimmicks. What's more damaging is losing DT Justin Harrell and CB Inky Johnson for the season. Tennessee has the secondary depth to semi-adequately replace Johnson, but will struggle without Harrell. Florida comes calling this week - uh-oh.

16 - Oklahoma
Still supposedly have a fantastic defense. I'm waiting to see it. Finally showed up for their first half of the season in a 37-20 win over Washington. Paul Thompson did throw for 272 yards, but it seems a little ...counter-productive, I guess, when you have an (allegedly) fantastic defense and one of the best RBs in the country. Thompson should really be doing a Brandon Cox impersonation, but yet he's throwing 30+ times a game. Of course, most of those yards came in the first half, and AP ran in the second half. Having the ball more would probably cut down on the number of yards allowed. Oregon will be a serious test for them.

17 - Miami
Played Nowheresville U - and of course hammered the daylights out of them. Pretty much what you expected, and unlike last week where we had to read into teams playing 1-AA teams, we don't have to now, as we can just say crazy things like "the Troy offense is better than the Miami offense". Kyle Wright has to grow up, otherwise even a good (but not great) defense will eat him alive. Possibly not coincedentally, Louisville has a pretty good defense. Guess who Miami plays?

18 - Oregon
Quality win over Fresno St. Jonathon Stewart will be back at RB this game, which gives Oregon plenty of offensive weapons. They'll need them, as Dwayne Wright and the Fresno St. line pretty much wore down the Oregon D. Think Adrian Peterson and the Oklahoma offensive line hasn't noticed this? (Think Stoops has noticed this? I'm not sure.) One hidden yardage stat to keep an eye on: Oregon already has 16 penalties for 185 yards. If they give up another 50-plus yards to Oklahoma, that might be the difference. Sloppy play will not get them another quality win.

19 - Texas Tech
Got a nailbiter 38-35 OT win over a better-than-you-think UTEP. Offense was what you'd expect, but the defense was lacking. Of course, UTEP has a pretty high-powered offense. TCU will be an incredibly tough matchup for the Red Raiders: figure that TCU will try and control the game on the ground with Aaron Brown and go from there. Texas Tech has the firepower to win, though, even on the road.

20 - Iowa
Got a gutsy, gutsy performance from their defense against Syracuse (you've heard of this by now, surely: 7 stands on their own 1-yard line to win the game). Of course, the question - to me - is why they were in that position in the first place. Both offenses struggled in that game. Undoubtedly, Iowa's offense should return with Drew Tate coming back to play against Iowa State, which is always a tough game for both teams.

21 - Boise State
Followed up a 45-0 drubbing of Sacramento St. with a 42-14 statement win over Oregon St. Sure, (this) OSU's not the best in the nation, but 42-14 is impressive no matter how you slice it. After Oregon State jumped out to a 14-0 lead, the Broncos scored the next 42 - and again, we've got a team with over 300 yards on the ground my top 25. I'm starting to sense a trend.

College Football - Keys to a Championship?

In what seems like one of the most wide-open college football seasons in recent memory, let's look back to the past to gain a little insight as to what it takes to be a champion. Call me old-fashioned, but I've always liked experience at the QB position and a strong defense. Why? Only an unbeaten team has a strong chance of making it into the BCS championship. Several 1-loss teams have made it, but far more have been relegated to lesser bowls. Going undefeated means having a consistent performance game in and game out. An experienced QB is less likely to make the kind of mistakes that can lose a game, and a veteran QB will often have a calming effect on the entire team in those do-or-die situations that seemingly every to-be champion has to go through to keep their record unblemished. A strong defense can cover for the occasional poor outing by the offense, can turn their team's mistakes into 3's rather than 7's, and can stop the opposition from turning the game's final possession into a game-winning drive.

Statistics for the 1999-2005 seasons are listed here. 1998 info from here. Bolded teams finished the regular season undefeated.


1998: Tennessee
QB - Tee Martin (Sr)
Defense - 14.5 ppg (#8)

def Florida State
QB - Chris Weinke (So, injured for game)*
Defense - 12.4 ppg (#3)


1999: Florida State
QB - Chris Weinke (Jr)
Defense - 15.8 ppg (#10) , 304.6 ypg (#19)

def Va Tech
QB - Michael Vick (Fr)*
Defense - 10.5 ppg (#1), 247.3 ppg (#3)


2000: Oklahoma
QB - Josh Heupel (Sr)
Defense - 16.0 ppg (#7), 278.9 ypg (#8)

def Florida State
QB - Chris Weinke (Sr)
Defense - 10.3 ppg (#2), 277.0 ypg (#6)


2001: Miami
QB - Ken Dorsey (Jr)
Defense - 9.4 ppg (#1), 270.9 ypg (#6)

def Nebraska
QB - Eric Crouch (Sr)
Defense - 15.8 ppg (#6), 287.2 ypg (#8)


2002: Ohio State
QB - Craig Krenzel (Sr)
Defense - 13.1 ppg (#2), 320.9 ypg (#23)

def Miami
QB - Ken Dorsey (Sr)
Defense - 19.1 ppg (#22), 285 ypg (#7)


2003: LSU
QB - Matt Mauck (Sr)
Defense - 11.0 ppg (#1), 252.0 ypg (#1)

def Oklahoma
QB - Jason White (Jr)
Defense - 15.3 ppg (#5), 259.6 ypg (#3)

[USC's stats:
QB - Matt Leinart (So)*
Defense - 18.8 ppg (#19), 337.8 ppg (#33)*]


2004: USC
QB - Matt Leinart (Jr)
Defense - 13.0 ppg (#3), 279.3 ypg (#6)

def Oklahoma
QB - Jason White (Sr)
Defense - 16.8 ppg (#11), 299.0 ypg (#13)

[Auburn's stats:
QB - Jason Campbell (Sr)
Defense - 11.3 ppg (#1), 277.6 ypg (#5)]


2005: Texas
QB - Vince Young (Jr)
Defense - 16.4 ppg (#8), 302.9 ypg (#10)

def USC
QB - Matt Leinart (Sr)
Defense - 22.8 ppg (#35), 360.9 ypg (#48)*


I should note that these statistics include the bowl games, so for example 2005 Texas and USC's statistics both took a hit by that 41-38 thriller (I recall UT was #4 scoring), USC had the #2 scoring defense in the regular season in 2004, and OU had the #1 total defense in the 2003 regular season.

For the most part, the trend holds. Very few teams even make it to the championship game without both a Jr/Sr quarterback and a stiff defense. As for the four exceptions, 1998 Florida State did have an outstanding defense, though many did feel that Ohio State (Sr QB Joe Germaine, #2 scoring defense) belonged in that game against Tennessee. 1999 Va Tech had the #1 scoring defense, and QB Michael Vick is an exception to most rules. 2003 USC was not actually in the title game (nor was 2004 Auburn, though I listed them as an unbeaten team). 2005 USC's defense was probably ranked 5-10 spots higher prior to the Rose Bowl, and one of the best offenses in the sport's history was able to win a handful of shootouts prior to that game. Of those exceptions, only 99 Va Tech and 05 USC went unbeaten, so it is very rare to have an unbeaten team without both an experienced QB and a top defensive unit.


So where does that leave us for 2006?

#1 Ohio State
QB - Troy Smith (Sr)
Defense* - returns 2 starters, questions at LB, allowing 9.5 ppg through 2 games

#2 Notre Dame
QB - Brady Quinn (Sr)
Defense* - weak unit a year ago, but returns 9 starters, allowing 13.5 ppg through 2 games

#3 Auburn
QB - Brandon Cox (Jr)
Defense - returned 6 starters, allowing 7 ppg through 2 games

#4 USC
QB - John David Booty (Jr)
Defense* - returned 6 starters, allowed 14 points in opener

#5 West Virginia
QB* - Pat White (So)
Defense - returned 5 starters, allowing 6.5 ppg through 2 games

#6 LSU
QB - Jamarcus Russell (Jr)
Defense - returned 5 starters, allowing 3 ppg through 2 games

#7 Florida
QB - Chris Leak (Sr)
Defense - returned 6 starters, allowing 3.5 ppg through 2 games

#8 Texas - likely eliminated with loss to #1 OSU
QB* - Colt McCoy (rFr)
Defense - returned 7 starters, allowing 15.5 ppg through 2 games

#9 Florida State
QB* - Drew Weatherford (So)
Defense - returned 5 starters, allowing 13.5 ppg through 2 games

#10 Georgia
QB - Joe Tereshinski (Sr) (* Fr Matthew Stafford starts next 4-6 weeks)
Defense - returned 5 starters, allowing 6 ppg through 2 games, gave Spurrier first shutout since 87

#11 Michigan
QB - Chad Henne (Jr)
Defense - returned 8 starters, allowing 12 ppg through 2 games

#12 Louisville
QB - Brian Brohn (Jr)
Defense* - returned 7 starters, allowing 14 ppg through 2 games

#13 Tennessee
QB - Erik Ainge (Jr)
Defense* - returned 5 starters, two key injuries in week 2, allowing 24 ppg through 2 games

#14 Virginia Tech
QB* - Sean Glennon (So)
Defense - returned 5 starters, allowing 5 ppg through 2 games

#15 Oklahoma
QB - Paul Thompson (Sr)
Defense* - returned 9 starters, allowing 18.5 ppg through 2 games


LSU, Auburn, and Florida all have experienced QBs and excellent defenses to cover up mistakes. However, they may all do each other in. Ohio State and Notre Dame have experience at QB but uncertainties at defense. USC has a junior quarterback who is a first-year starter, and questions at defense. Booty looked strong in their opener. West Virginia has a good, but sophomore, quarterback. Though both play with great defenses, I'm not confident about Weatherford's and Stafford's abilities to lead their teams through their schedules. Michigan's Henne has two years under his belt but needs to play better. The defense is improved but needs to step it up another notch before travelling to Columbus. Louisville has more experience with Brohm, but their defense played in spurts against Kentucky. Tennessee's defense was impressive against Cal, but unimpressive and lost key players against Air Force. Va Tech's Glennon is a sophomore first year starter, who must face the Miami and FSU defenses in the ACC. Oklahoma has a good defense on paper but one that is badly underachieving early on. Though a senior, Paul Thompson has not shown great decision making nor consistency at QB.

College Football - week 2 rankings

Lots of teams gave very different impressions this week than they did a week ago.


#1 LSU - I don't know how many times I've said something about this season having no complete team. Ask yourself, what the heck is the weakness of the LSU Tigers? What's wrong with a team that has Jamarcus Russell at QB, backed up by Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux? Ask yourself what's wrong with a team who has won its last three games 40-3 (Miami), 45-3 (UL-Lafayette), 45-3 (Arizona)? Is the weakness the offense that hasn't scored less than 40 in the last three games, or the defense that's given up just a field goal each time? Perhaps it's the special teams that are perfect on field goals. I can't even judge the punting unit because it didn't happen against Arizona. What's wrong with a team whose two senior leaders on defense were the starting safeties for the Tigers' 2003 BCS championship squad. Ladies and gentlemen, there is a complete team in college football.

#2 Auburn - I've never seen Notre Dame win a game and drop in the polls, but it happened last week. My only explanation that's consistent with the fact that the media LOVES the Irish is that they love TV ratings even more. #1 vs #2 is sexy. So let's make it two weeks of that in a row. Besides that, dominating Washington State 40-14 and then shutting out Mississippi State 34-0 makes them kind of like LSU. What exactly is this team's weakness? The kicker who's 7 for 7? The junior quarterback who can run the offense in his sleep? The senior RB, possibly the best back in the league?

#3 Ohio State - An incomplete team, but a good team. OSU's offense actually could have made their win over Texas even more lopsided, but they continued their habit of not scoring as much as they should. Then again, Texas's defense did have just one (very pronounced) hole in their defense, so perhaps 24 points against them is on par for OSU's talent. I'm very concerned about the field goal unit, whose miss in Austin spoiled a good opening drive and could have let the Longhorns seize the initial momentum. The punting unit and coverage teams, however, look excellent. On the defensive side, the secondary has solidified but the rushing defense still looks like a liability. Nonetheless, they are the only one of the "good but incomplete" teams that has actually accomplished something.

#4 Notre Dame - What the Irish did to Penn State should serve as a warning to every team of their schedule. Notre Dame dominated every aspect of the game. They were helped by some untimely mistakes by PSU, but the fact that the defense is looking this good is not a good sign for Irish opponents. The offense looked every bit like the offense that was so hyped during the preseason, and this was against a very stout Penn State defensive unit.

#5 West Virginia - With the teams they've faced it's so hard to say. But West Virginia has still done everything that you could have asked of them and more. The rushing attack appears unstoppable and Pat White is becoming enough of a threat as a passer that teams can't just put 9 in the box against them.

#6 USC - Bye week. I like the offense.

#7 Florida - This is looking more like an Urban Meyer team. The offense is rolling, and UF's defense has surrendered just seven points total in their opening two games. Remember UCF was a bowl team last season, and they just got blown out.

#8 Louisville - Hey, whoa, hey. Yes they have looked this good in my opinion. There's not a lot of really stout defensive teams early in this season, and I'm not sure who could stop this offense. Half of the teams who could (Texas, FSU, Miami) might not be able to score enough themselves for it to make a difference.

#9 Michigan - There's a gap between 8 and 9. Hart is looking great but the offense is very one-dimensional. Henne needs to improve; really, he just needs to be himself. The defense has been suffocating, as they should have pitched a shutout in week 1.

#10 Florida State - Nearly laid an egg against Troy on Saturday. The Seminoles rebounded, but it makes you wonder whether their paltry 1 rushing yard against Miami was more the Canes defense or more the sign of a Jeffy Bowden team.

#11 Nebraska - Another team where it's so hard to say. Within the Big 12, I will say that this is the only team of those expected to contend for the conference title that is playing to its potential. Zac Taylor has been impressive and the defense is regaining its "blackshirt" reputation.

#12 Texas - I'm tempted to drop them further, and this team could fall fast if they don't patch up the offense. I have a feeling that with Tarell Brown and Drew Kelson, this defense would have held Ohio State in the 10-17 point range. But an offense that scores just seven in the big game is no help. Colt McCoy needs to grow up fast; meanwhile, Greg Davis is trying to compete with Jeffy Jeff for worst OC at a major football program.

#13 Georgia - Defense and special teams continue to be outstanding. The QB question must be answered if they are going to avoid multiple losses in the SEC.

#14 Va Tech - Beamerball rolls on - a blocked punt and a defensive score against UNC. The offense wasn't as good as they'd like, but it was a strong performance all-around.

#15 Tennessee - Against Cal, everything clicked. Against Air Force, so much went wrong. A team cannot be that inconsistent in SEC conference play, or they will lose. End of story. Losing two defensive starters for the season doesn't help.

#16 Oklahoma - Baffling. Once again the team tried to lean too heavily on Thompson to start the game, then closed the door by going to Peterson. DJ Wolfe is a liability at corner and I don't think he'll be starting any more games.

#17 Iowa - Without Tate, this team had one thing that's been missing from previous squads. Heart. The defense willed the team to victory with that dramatic goalline stand.

#18 Miami - A 51-10 domination of Fla A&M does not erase the memory of how inept Kyle Wright looked against FSU's defense in the opener and against LSU's defense in their bowl game last season. This team is still not ready to play against a good defense.

#19 Oregon - Fresno did play the pretty close, but Fresno has proven that they can do that against good BCS teams. Dennis Dixon looks really good running the spread option.

#20 Boston College - I'd feel bad about ranking less than twenty teams, and they did win a good game over Clemson. No they haven't looked great in either performance, but unlike the teams below them they have beaten a good team and so at least they've done something to make them worthy of the spot.

#21 Cal - This was more what we'd expect from a top 25 team. Minnesota scored early and tied the game at 14 with a kickoff return for TD, but then the Bears broke the game open. I still don't like Longshore as starting QB, but he did do much better in week 2. They probably won't see another defense as good as Tennessee's anyway.

On the bubble: Arizona State, Boise State, Rutgers, TCU, Texas Tech

College Football - week 2 in review

Another great Saturday of watching football and more football. I'll let these games soak in some before posting my own rankings tomorrow, but here were my initial impressions of the AP top 25:

#1 Ohio State - A very solid performance. The kicking game and the run defense need a lot of work. On the other hand, the offense looked fantastic and the secondary unit was good. Troy Smith passed for 269 yds, 2 TDs, and 10 yards per attempt! Trepasso is a weapon at punter.

#2 Texas - Vintage Mack Brown... and to think, I was starting to like him. The defense played well and will be a lot better when Tarell Brown and Drew Kelson return. Both runningbacks looked great, and I was particularly impressed by Selvin Young (135 yds total offense, 8.5 ypc). Jamaal Charles showed not only the speed and agility he's known for, but also great power. McCoy looked terrible and the playcalling was baffling. I don't know if it's McCoy's inexperience or Brown's Brownness, but one way or another this team isn't going to be winning the big games this season unless something changes.

#3 USC - Best team ever! Shutout, 0 yds allowed, in bye week.

#4 Notre Dame - I'm an Irish hater. But I'll admit this team looked good. The defense looks like they've patched up their holes from last season, and Brady Quinn (288 yds, 3 TD) regained his form from last season.

#5 Auburn - Granted Mississippi State is not the best team in the SEC, but winning a conference game 34-0 is a statement. Vaughn was 2-2 on FG including a 55 yarder, so his confidence has to be high heading into a rematch with LSU. (recall that he missed 5 last year against them) Irons was held in check so Cox simply had a monster game.

#6 West Virginia - OK, this offense is frightening. 579 yards, 392 on the ground. Pat White completed all of his passes (all four, yes). Slaton tore them up on the ground. It was a massacre.

#7 Florida - This looked more like the #7 team than what we saw last week. I don't know which is more impressive - 431 yds passing or only 22 yds rushing allowed? Leak looked every bit as good as some of the more hyped QBs.

#8 LSU - I don't think people are watching the Tigers. That's the only reason I can think of why they'd be rated this low. Admittedly, I watched very little of this game once UT-OSU kicked off... but it was over by then anyway (24-0 I think). Their last three games have been 40-3 over Miami, 45-3 over UL-Lafayette, and 45-3 over Arizona. Jamarcus Russell is playing the best I've ever seen him play, and their defense is back at its 2003 form if not better.

#9 Florida State - Relaxed after a big win? Tired after playing just 5 days earlier? Jeff Bowden at offensive coordinator? All three of these played a factor as this team had to come back to beat Troy.

#10 Michigan - Another strong performance by Hart and weak performance by Henne on offense. If I'm a Michigan fan, I'm very concerned about Henne's performances in the opening two weeks against sub-par defenses. On the other hand, the Wolverine defense looked great - particularly against the run - and from the looks of the game in Austin, having a strong running game will be critical to having a shot at stealing the Big Ten crown.

#11 Tennessee - Now this is more like what I'm used to from the Vols. Air Force gave them all they could handle, jumping out to a 10-3 lead and having enough for the late-game comeback, just falling short going for the win on a final two-point attempt. Aside from the passing game, this game was a disaster for the Vols.

#12 Georgia - The Bulldogs rushing attack materialized this week in a big way against an SEC foe. Stafford had a very poor outing at QB, though Tereshinski looked good... but he will be out for a month or longer with a sprained ankle. The defense gave Spurrier his first shutout since 1987, what else needs to be said? Special teams continue to be a strength of this Georgia squad.

#13 Louisville - 62-0 annihilation... but of Temple. It's hard to say what this means, though it is obviously impressive to be averaging over 60 ppg in the first season of shorter games. Five Cardinals scored on the ground and three ran for over 70 yards, as the team appears to be making a statement that they are still a great rushing offense without Bush.

#14 Iowa - One thing was impressive about their 20-13 OT victory over Syracuse. On their final drive, the Orange had a 1st and goal from the Iowa 2. Three plays later, they still weren't in but a penalty gave them a 1st and goal from the two all over again. FOur runs, one yard, zero points! This is a defense that won't quit and won't simply let you have a single yard. The offense was lackluster, but some of that can be blamed on Tate's last-minute unavailability.

#15 Olahoma - Very much a tale of two halves for the Sooners. The team somehow allowed Washington to be tied 13-13 at halftime, before scoring 24 straight points in the second half. AD was impressive, but Thompson was very streaky at QB. They'll need more good streaks than bad to crack the top ten. For the second straight week, DJ Wolfe got burned at corner and had to be taken out.

#16 Va Tech - The margin of victory was what you'd expect for VT vs UNC. But looking colser, Tech's offense struggled all game long. They coughed up 2 fumbles and barely topped 100 yards through the air. However, the defense forced four interceptions - scoring on one of them - and the special teams blocked a punt.

#17 Miami - 337 yards rushing this week is better than the single-digit total from last week. Then again, Florida A&M is hardly Florida State. If nothing else, this game is good for Kyle Wright's confidence.

#18 Clemson - Losing a close game hurts. Losing a close game because of a missed kick hurts even more. Losing a close game because of a missed extra point hurts the most. A missed FG, a missed PAT, a fumble, and 65 yards of untimely penalties negated their offense's edge in yardage in a very hard-fought game.

#19 Penn State - Simply dominated by Notre Dame. Don't let the 17 points fool you either, this game was 41-3 before Penn State added two meaningless scores. Three turnovers and a 33-yard punt average swung the field position battle, and the game was downhill from there. Both sides of the ball need to improve for them to battle Michigan and Ohio State.

#20 Oregon - I'm watching the game in progress as I write this, Oregon just won 31-24. I know Fresno is good for a non-BCS team, but I'm still not impressed. Fresno State was pounding the ball at will, which has to worry Duck fans as AD comes to town next week.

#21 Nebraska - Nebraska can sure blow out a non-div IA team. Old Huskers faithful must have thought Nicholls State was cute, trying their best to run the option. Meanwhile, Nebraska's offense is showing shades of the old juggernauts.

#22 California - I think this is what people were expecting in week 1. Trading scores early, the Bears pulled away from Minnesota before halftime and pitched a shutout in the second half. More impressive was holding Minnesota to just 109 yards rushing. Lynch looked significantly better than last week, but did lose a fumble.

#23 TCU - An early 3-0 deficit proved to be a false omen, as TCU blew out Cal-Davis. Jeff Ballard is back in good health after being knocked out of last week's game.

#24 Texas Tech - Jordan Palmer simply TORCHED the Red Raider defense. Fortunately for TT, Graham Harrell had an even better night. There was not a lot of defense played in this shootout. Trileca struggled, missing two FGs, but did hit a 49 yard game-winner.

#25 Arizona State - Rudy Carpenter played a great game. He did throw a pick, but five TDs more than make up for that. They gave up two turnovers but forced four. Perhaps most importantly, Nevada averaged just 3.8 yards per play. For a team whose weakness is defense, that's a great stat.

#1 Ohio State @ #2 Texas - what to expect and more

For what could be the biggest regular season matchup of the 2006 NCAA season, we'd like to take a closer look. I'll preface this preview by admitting that I may have a personal bias. Both of my parents are Ohio State alums, so if I unintentionally underestimate the Texas Longhorns I apoligize. I will do my best to be impartial.


Positional Comparisons:
+0 - even
+1 - slight but noteworthy edge
+2 - significant edge
+3 - huge edge

QB:
* The most important position in the game yields probably the biggest advantage one team will have over the other at any one position, and is therefore the simplest to argue. Troy Smith is a leading Heisman candidate, one of the most prolific offensive players in college football, and an experienced leader.
* Colt McCoy, while impressive in his opening debut, is an untested freshman playing a live game against a strong defensive team for the first time.
* Smith will have the edge in agility, arm strength, pass accuracy, and decision making. Ohio State +3.

RB:
* The rest of the backfield should be one of the most even matchups in the game. Ohio State will lean on Antonio Pittman, who performed well against NIU averaging 5.8 ypc, roughly on-par with his 5.5 ypc average from a year ago, and scoring a touchdown. Freshman Chris Wells will see less playing time, but provide a good contrast with his more powerful running style. Maurice Wells, who split time with Pittman last season, is a solid third back.
* As a freshman last season, Jamaal Charles recorded the longest run by a Texas player in the history of the Red River Shootout, 80 yards for Texas's first touchdown. He is an elusive runner with excellent field vision, averaged 5.5 yards/carry against UNT after averaging 7.4 ypc last season. Senior Selvin Young will split carries with Charles, having trimmed down ~15 pounds to improve his acceleration and agility. He looked good against UNT, though Longhorn fans may be wary of his habit of fumbling. Both backs scored TDs in the opening week. In short yardage situations, the Longhorns may employ 270-lb bruiser-back Henry Melton.
* Charles is the best back in this bunch. Texas +1

Receivers:
* Ohio State will be pretty much a two man show, but one of those men is Heisman potential Tedd Ginn, Jr. Ginn will be the fastest player on the football field, and he is greatly improved since the last time these teams met. In the Fiesta Bowl, he torched the Irish for two long touchdowns, one off a reverse, and is a threat to score any time the ball is in his hands. On the downside, he has a habit of disappearing from some games. Ginn's partner is Gonzalez, a solid #2 receiver perhaps best known for a key third down catch in OSU's comeback drive against Michigan. Not as fast as Ginn, but more of a posession receiver. A year ago, tight end was the position that let Ohio State down as Hamby dropped what could have been a clinching TD in the fourth quarter. Without a reliable go-to guy at this position, expect most of Smith's passes to be targeted at Ginn, Gonzalez, and the occasional toss to a RB.
* A year ago in Columbus, Limas Sweed scored the game-winning touchdown for the Longhorns, and is the Longhorns' greatest receiving threat. Last week he caught a pair of touchdowns and gained 111 yards on 5 receptions. Texas has a very deep roster of good if unexceptional wide receivers; Cosby, Shipley, and Jones are all capable players. The Longhorns will also use Charles and Young as receivers out of the backfield, which was very effective in this matchup a season ago as often two linebackers were spying Vince Young. The Longhorns do not appear to have found a replacement for star tight end David Thomas.
* Ginn is the biggest scoring threat on the field. Ohio State +2.

Offensive Line:
* Though not as heralded as their counterparts, Ohio State has a strong line. Downing, Datish, and Barton return from last season, though the loss of Mangold at center will be felt.
* Texas returns a veteran line that neutralized the defensive fronts of OSU, OU, and USC a season ago. In fact in that Rose Bowl, the only times Vince Young felt any pressure was when the Trojans blitzed multiple players from the secondary. Seniors Sendlein, Blalock, and Studdard return as the core of that group, and the new starters are a junior and a sophomore.
* The unsung heroes of an offense, this is a position where the Longhorns hope to even the offensive scales. Texas +1

Defensive Line:
* Ohio State returns its tackles Patterson and Pittcock. At defensive end, Richardson has a fair amount of experience. The group is solid against the run and can create pressure on the QB without having to bring extra men.
* Texas returns Crowder, Robison, and Okam as starters, with Robison being the player who recovered Justin Zwick's late game fumble in last season's game. Robison is also a threat on field goals, and blocked a kick against UNT. Many experts rank this line as #1 or #2 along with Oklahoma's.
* Last season, you could make the case that these were the two best defensive lines in football. With a little more experience and a deeper rotation, the edge goes to the Horns. Texas +1

Linebacker:
* Ohio State struggles to replace a stellar corps of LBs from their last squad, a task made more difficult by a late-summer injury to much-hyped Mike D'Andrea. Freeman has good speed and Kerr is solid in the middle; Laurinitis was a liability against Michigan, and Grant has almost no experience. Indeed there is little experience from anyone in this group.
* The most memorable incomplete pass thrown by Matt Leinart in the Rose Bowl featured a streak route by Reggie Bush out of the backfield and LB Drew Kelson in man-to-man coverage. Kelson stayed with Bush in deep coverage, nearly intercepting the pass. That is the kind of speed this Texas unit brings to the table, quite possibly the fastest linebacking corps in football, as is preferred by defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. This year Kelson will start and Bobino slides over to MLB to replace Aaron Harris, with Robert Killebrew returning on the strong side.
* Texas LBs have two things they'll need against Ohio State - speed to help contain Troy Smith and coverage skills to help out underneath. Texas +2

Secondary:
* Ohio State must replace an excellent departing group Everett, Salley, Whitner, and Youboty. CB Malcolm Jenkins and SS Jermario O'Neal are well-regarded players, but the #2 corner will be a weakness. FS Brandon Mitchell is the only senior in this bunch with no juniors.
* For Texas, once again speed is the name of the game. Though Thorpe winner Michael Huff and #1 corner Cedric Griffin graduated, the group was expected to be one of the best in the NCAA once again. However, the loss of senior #1 cornerback Tarell Brown - the faster of the two corners whose assignment would have been Ted Ginn - takes this group down a notch. Aaron Ross is an experienced corner who might match up against Ginn in short yardage situations. Michael Griffin is a quick and physical FS who led the team in tackles and tied with Ross for most interceptions a year ago.
* Perhaps the hardest thing to do as a defense is learn to cover as a group. With four new starters, Ohio State may botch a few coverages. Texas +2

Kicking
* First there was Mike Nugent. Then Josh Huston filled in well enough. But last week, Pretorius and Pettrey both went 0-1 on FG. Ohio State had two FGs blocked by Notre Dame in the Fiesta, which doesn't bode well against Texas.
* After a lackluster season from David Pino, Greg Johnson takes over as a competent kicker. Brian Robison is a kick-blocking machine, already blocking UNT's only field goal attempt the opening week.
* Forgotten in last year's thriller was that Huston did miss a long field goal. Texas +1

Punting
* A year ago, AJ Trepasso kicked a 40.3 average and 37.6 net.
* Greg Johnson was punter for Vanderbilt in 2002 as a freshman, where his net average was #4 in the NCAA at 38.8. With the Texas punt coverage team and four years of training under his belt, you can expect that number to approach 40 in 2006.
* Ever so slight an edge to Texas, but I'm giving this one a +0.

Return Teams
* Ted Ginn is the most dangerous man on the field, and the return game is where he excels the most. Despite a 10.0 punt return average and just 1 TD last season, it only takes one mistake for him to make you pay. His kick return average was just shy of 30.
* Aaron Ross was a solid return man last season, averaging 14.7 yards per punt return. But in addition to that, the Longhorns are a threat to block punts, having blocked 6 last year and 20 in the last 5 years. On the down side, last season's top two kick returners are gone - Ramonce Taylor was kicked off the team and Tarell Brown is suspended.
* The punt blocking ability of Texas closes the gap a little, Ohio State +1

Coverage Teams
* Ohio State is always one of the top coverage teams in the nation. Tressel been quoted as saying that the punt is the most important play in the game, showing OSU's dedication to the kicking game.
* A year ago the kick coverage unit was a weakness for the Horns, but that was fixed following the Ohio State game. The Longhorns have not allowed a PR for TD since... I don't know, a while ago.
* Even... OSU a little better against KRs, Texas a little better against PRs, +0

Coaching
* Jim Tressel replaced Joe Cooper aka The Coach Who Couldn't Beat Michigan or Win the Bowl Game. Since taking over, OSU is 4-1 vs Michigan, 4-1 in Bowl Games, including 3-0 in BCS bowls - each time the Fiesta, and has won a national title in an upset victory over the Greatest Dynasty Ever, Miami. One might note that Michigan has had a bit of a downturn by their standards, averaging fewer than 9 victories per year in that stretch. Under Tressel Ohio State tends to have one of the best special teams units in the nation, a sturdy defense, but has underachieved on offense leading some to question the conservative playcalling. Prior to coaching at Ohio State, Tressel won three national championships with Yongstown State in Div I-AA.
* Mack Brown is notorious for probably costing Texas a spot in the 2001-02 title game by refusing to start Major Applewhite at QB. Four years later he made up for it with an upset victory over the Greatest Team Ever, USC. In Brown's eight years at Texas, the team is just 3-5 against Oklahoma, though it should be noted that in those five losses (2000-04 consecutively) the Sooners averaged 12 victories for the season with three title game appearances. Like Tressel, Brown's teams are noted for outstanding special teams play, sturdy defense (particularly with the addition of coordinator Gene Chizik, who has now won 29 straight games dating back to his days with Auburn), but an offense that disappears in the big games. Indeed, much of that blame has also been placed on OC Greg Davis becoming too conservative for such games. In Brown's defense, Texas was a below .500 program prior to his arrival in 1998, and since then the Horns have averaged just under ten and a half victories per year with their worst record 9-3. His bowl record with Texas is 5-3, including 2-0 in BCS bowls - both times the Rose, the program set a school record for consecutive seasons with 10+ wins, and in 2001-02 finished with back-to-back top 10 rankings for the first time since 1978. Since 2001, Texas has won more games than any other program.
* Even... in fact, very similar I'd say. Were Michigan and Oklahoma to swap their previous five teams, we'd have the entire state of Texas singing Mack's praises and the entire state of Ohio calling for the removal of Tressel. +0

Advantage Totals:
Offense: Ohio State +3
Defense: Texas +5
Special Teams: +0
Overall: Texas +2


Turnovers:
* Ohio State was -9 in turnovers last season, their worst performance in six years. The team is still +21 over that period of time. OSU coughed up two fumbles and was -1 vs NIU. The one interception, however, prevented a likely NIU score.
* Texas plays the turnover game as well as anyone other than USC, and in the last six years they are +46 turnovers with positive totals each season. Texas coughed up two fumbles and was +0 vs UNT. The defense scored on a fumble recovery.
* Last season, Texas turned the ball over 3 times to Ohio State's 1. Two interceptions were actually caused by Vince Young being too athletic for his own good, throwing poor passes as tacklers tried to bring him to the ground. Justin Zwick's fumble at 23-22 allowed Texas to burn away much of the clock and set up the clinching safety.

Intangibles:
* For Ohio State, this game is all about revenge. The team had Rose Bowl hopes last year, hopes that were taken away in the final minutes of an early-season game by QB Vince Young. Troy Smith said earlier that he wished VY was still at Texas for this game... of course, that would be terrible news for Ohio State, but it hints at the mentality that the Buckeyes are taking into this rematch.
* For Texas, this game is about defending their title and their pride. OSU will likely be their toughest opponent, and a victory this weekend would put them firmly in control of their own destiny. It is also about proving that they can win big games without Vince Young and proving that their victory last season wasn't luck.

Home Field Advantage:
* A year ago, I boldly predicted that Texas would appear to have the home field advantage in the early game, and indeed this was true as the Horns jumped out to a 10-0 lead before the Bucks scored 16 straight. This prediction was due to my unique experience as a Texan who moved to Ohio for college, and experienced the state myself. This season, however, Texas will have the true home field advantage. Don't expect Troy Smith, who has played games in the Big House in November, to get terribly intimidated by a September game anywhere. But perhaps more importantly for the Horns is that Colt McCoy will have the home crowd behind him rather than the Horseshoe's crowd against him. As the game is played in the evening, the weather will not have as much of an effect on the Buckeye players.


Situational Comparisons:

Ohio State Offense vs Texas Defense

Running:
Amazingly, Ohio State's 4.7 ypc average last season was their best in the last six years. The Buckeyes have had great offensive lines and solid backs, but do not seem to run the ball like other top rushing programs. Texas gave up 3.7 ypc a year ago and 3.2 ypc the year before that. Against UNT, the unit surrendered just 8 yards rushing on 28 attempts... 36 yards on 19 attempts for the running backs. With a 284 pound average, don't expect Texas's defensive line to get pushed back too much, and the linebackers all have big game experience. For Ohio State, getting the passing game going early and utilizing Smith as an option/decoy will be key to establishing the ground game. Expect some, but limited, success by the Buckeye running game.

Passing:
A year ago, Ohio State had their best passing offense in years, completing just shy of 65% of their passes to the turn of 226 aerial yards per game despite having a preference for running the ball. Last week they boosted that to 315 yards through the air in an impressive performance. Ohio State lost their go-to receiver, but Texas lost their Thorpe winning safety and #1 corner. Now with their new #1 corner suspended, you'd think Ohio State will have success throwing the ball. The Horns gave up just 87 yards passing in their opener, coming off a season when they had one of the best pass defenses, giving up just 172 passing yards per game at a 51% completion rate. For Texas, it will be important to try to get pressure with the front 4 and to get help from both the linebackers and safeties. Expect Buckeye success in the passing game.

Texas Offense vs Ohio State Defense

Running:
Texas averaged 275 rushing ypg and 5.9 ypc a season ago. Though Vince Young's departure will hurt that number, don't underestimate the contributions of the offensive line and the running backs to those statistics. Texas did gain 212 yards rushing against UNT, but the average fell to 4.8 ypc. A season after giving up just 73 ypg and 2.2 ypc on the ground, Ohio State gave up 151 yards and 4.6 ypc to the NIU rushing attack, with Wolfe getting 171 and 6.6. The loss of two linemen and three linebackers was obvious. Though Wolfe is arguably as good as Texas's backs, there is no comparison between the offensive lines, nor the receiving corps which will prevent OSU from giving as much safety support. Expect Texas to go to the ground early and often, as they try to keep the ball away from Ohio State's powerful offense. And expect them to have success with this approach.

Passing:
Last season, passing was that thing Vince Young sometimes did when the defending corners came up to stop him and he didn't feel like juking them out. He did it so well that he had the #1 quarterback rating in the country, and the offense gained 237 yards at 65% completion through the air. Ohio State gave up 208 yards through the air per game at 61% completion. In the opening week, Texas gained 198 yards through the air, with McCoy being much more efficient than Snead. Ohio State gave up 192 aerial yards, though about half that came on two screen passes. What will be interesting to watch is an inexperienced quarterback with good receivers working against an inexperienced secondary. Expect lots of vanilla from both sides of this one. So long as the line holds and gives McCoy time to find the open man, expect decent success from the Longhorns. Greater success if the running game requires safety support to slow down.


Interesting facts:

Returning Offense/Defense:
* Ohio State returns their top five rushers (in terms of yards gained) from last season, and have added Chris Wells to the attack.
* Ohio State returns their #2-#5 receivers. However, #1 Holmes had 11 TDs to Ginn's 4 and actually averaged more yards per catch.
* Sophomore cornerback Malcolm Jenkins recorded 37 tackles last season for Ohio State. The eight players above him are all gone. Only two other players on OSU's defensive roster recorded more than 20 tackles a year ago. The group has one interception.
* Texas returns rushers #2, #4, and #5 from last season, and you can guess who was #1. Jamaal Charles, however, had the highest ypc.
* Texas returns receivers #3 and #4 from last season, but are aided by Jordan Shipley's return from injury. #1 receiver Billy Pittman returned but was injured during the summer.
* Michael Griffin was the Longhorns' leading tackler and tied with Aaron Ross for leading interceptor a year ago. Tacklers #2-4 graduated and #5 (T. Brown) is suspended. Tacklers #6-11 return, and there are 10 defensive players who recorded over 20 tackles a season ago, with the group totaling 8 interceptions.

Completely Random Yet Fun Facts from Steele's:
* Texas is 13-3 against the spread after their last 16 straight-up victories. The spread calls for Texas to win the game by a field goal.
* The Longhorns have won 21 straight games, longest in the nation.
* Ohio State is 8-3 against the spread after their last 11 straight-up victories.
* Ohio State is 22-4-1 vs the Big 12 during the regular season. However, they are just 5-8 against the spread in those games.


Oh, so I'm supposed to make a prediction?
Texas 24, Ohio State 17

How can 60k sports fans be so dumb?

ESPN.com allows users to rank the top 30 teams in college football, vote on the best backfield duo, etc etc. Fun times. And to start the season, readers can also make predictions about who will win their division, their conference, and the MNC in January. Let's take a look at how 59,982 people had voted as of last night. My votes are in bold, and and seemingly strange votes are in italics.


1) Which team will win the ACC Atlantic Division?

50.1% Florida State
20.2% Wake Forest
17.7% Clemson
7.4% Boston College
2.8% Maryland
1.7% NC State

2) Which team will win the ACC Coastal Division?

47.9% Miami (Fla.)
24.7% Duke
13.9% Virginia Tech
9.8% Georgia Tech
2.5% North Carolina
1.2% Virginia

3) Which team will win the Big 12 North Division?

49.4% Nebraska
16.9% Missouri
16.1% Iowa State
10.2% Colorado
4.8% Kansas
2.7% Kansas State

4) Which team will win the Big 12 South Division?

48.6% Texas
20.7% Oklahoma
20.4% Baylor
5.5% Texas Tech
2.8% Texas A&M
1.9% Oklahoma State

5) Which team will win the Big East?

40.7% West Virginia
26.5% Louisville
19.3% Connecticut
3.2% Pittsburgh
2.9% South Florida
2.9% Cincinnati
2.3% Syracuse
2.3% Rutgers

6) Which team will win the Big Ten?

39.4% Ohio State
18.6% Indiana
16.4% Michigan
8.3% Iowa
6.7% Penn State
2.8% Northwestern
2.5% Illinois
2.4% Michigan State
1.6% Purdue
0.8% Wisconsin
0.6% Minnesota

7) Which team will win the Pac-10?

36.1% USC
24.4% California
22.0% Arizona State
4.7% Oregon
4.6% UCLA
2.3% Arizona
2.0% Stanford
1.4% Washington
1.3% Washington State
1.2% Oregon State

8) Which team will win the SEC East Division?

42.1% Florida
20.5% Vanderbilt
18.1% Georgia
8.6% Tennessee
6.7% South Carolina
4.0% Kentucky

9) Which team will win the SEC West Division?

41.1% Auburn
23.7% LSU
20.7% Mississippi State
6.9% Alabama
5.7% Arkansas
1.9% Mississippi

10) Which of these AP Preseason Top 25 teams will win the national championship?

20.0% Arizona State
14.5% TCU
10.8% Ohio State
7.9% Notre Dame
6.7% Florida
6.3% West Virginia
4.6% Auburn
3.6% Clemson
3.2% Texas
2.6% Michigan
2.4% Florida State
2.1% USC
2.1% Iowa
1.9% LSU
1.8% Nebraska
1.7% Miami (Fla.)
1.6% Penn State
1.6% Oklahoma
0.9% Tennessee
0.8% Louisville
0.8% Virginia Tech
0.7% California
0.7% Georgia
0.4% Texas Tech
0.4% Oregon

Total Votes: 59,982


Let's just move on down the list from top to bottom.

ACC Atlantic: In my opinion, it's a no-brainer that FSU wins this division. Clemson may challenge them, but Wake Forest? 20% idiots.

ACC Coastal: Despite their loss to FSU last night, I think Miami is a little stronger than Virginia Tech. Now, Duke got shut out by Richmond, and nearly a quarter of voters liked them? Did somebody think this was a basketball poll? That's my only possible explanation.

Big 12 North: Big Red is back... er, on their way back. Everyone else still sucks.

Big 12 South: Texas is the clear favorite now that OU has again lost their starting QB. Baylor... well, if this was women's basketball. Five wins last season was the most their football team has had since 1995 in the old SWC days.

Big East: West Virginia and Louisville are the only legit teams, with Connecticut on the rise.

Big Ten: Ohio State is not just the conference favorite but the preseason #1. Indiana, on the other hand, is one of the worst teams in the conference year in and year out. Again, were people thinking basketball?

Pac 10: USC has proven that they are not actually a Pac 10 team. They are in the SEC far-west.

SEC East: Florida's a solid pick, but I like Georgia's defense and special teams. Vandy... now, come on. That wouldn't even work in basketball.

SEC West: LSU may be better than Auburn, but they play a tougher schedule. When the two face off Sept 16, the game will be on Auburn's home turf. Mississippi State will be lucky to make a bowl and should finish 5th or 6th in the division.

National Champion: So why'd I pick USC? In the real estate business, they say location is everything. In a football season with no complete team, it comes down to location location location. West Virginia plays in the Big East, and they face the biggest cupcake schedule of them all, which only got easier when Louisville lost Michael Bush for the season. Next in line of the big boys in terms of a schedule that shouldn't give them a loss is USC. The Pac 10 is a notch above the Big East for sure, but certainly not on par with the SEC or Big Ten. On top of that, USC's two supposed challenges this season - Cal and Notre Dame - looked to be greatly overrated on opening weekend, which makes their road to the MNC game much easier than say Ohio State's or even Texas's, which has drawn criticism for three creampuff nonconference games and should only be challenged by Ohio State, OU, and possibly Texas Tech. And let's not even talk about the possibility of an unbeaten SEC team, because with four teams in my top ten and another at #11, it just ain't happening. Miami's already lost, and FSU and VT probably aren't good enough to run the table. So our most likely MNC matchup will feature USC vs West Virginia, and the Mounties simply cannot keep up with nor slow down the kind of offensive firepower that USC brings to the table.

That said, this prediction is far from a certainty. Last season, everyone knew that USC would be in the title game, and that they'd either face the Texas-Ohio State winner or possibly Miami (preseason hype) or Va Tech (looked good for a while). Indeed it wound up being Texas-USC in a game for the ages. This season, every contender has a major flaw to overcome, and some (Ohio State, the SEC teams, FSU) have several games that would challenge a champion. Just putting that out there -- it could be a crazy season, folks.

Now the other picks. 20% Arizona State? Only 22% think they can even win their conference. They barely survived opening weekend against Northern Arizona, they're one of the ten worst defenses in the country, and they have no running game to speak of. 14% TCU? Well I admit, all they have to do is beat Texas Tech and the rest of their schedule are teams who couldn't beat the Texas high school champ. So there's a strong possibility that they could be one of two or less unbeatens, and hope the BCS computers aren't too tough on them. But that only means making it to the title game. How in the world is this team going to actually win it? They barely beat Baylor on opening weekend. If they play Texas, USC, OSU, even WVA, it'll be over by the end of the first quarter.

Week 1 Rankings - Another Perspective

First off, let's go ahead and call it what it is. This is a Top 22. I can't include Cal after the egg they laid in Knoxville. After that, I couldn't come up with anyone worthwhile.

1 - Texas
Their quarterback problems look at least temporarily solved after a woodshed beating of North Texas. Not only that, the scoring throughout the game was as even as you could dream - 14 points in each quarter, 1 rushing TD per quarter, 1 passing TD in every quarter but the 4th (fumble recovery). As for the D, it was completely stifling, allowing only 2 Mean Green drives above 5 yards - but both of those were long drives (70 and 80 yards, respectively). OSU will be a serious test, but this was the most complete performance from any team last week.

2 - Auburn
A dominating 40-14 W over Washington St. was a bit of an understatement; every drive but 1 went at least 20 yards and there were only 2 punts all game. What looked to be a possible weak point for the Tigers - their kicking game - was solid this week, as John Vaughn went 4-5 (made 32, 44, 52(!), 31, missed 37) and Washington St. began 7 drives from no better than their own 20. Brandon Cox turned in a solid but unimpressive performance (10/16, 156 yds), but Kenny Irons carried most of the offense. In short, better than expected.

3 - Ohio State
Hard to argue with the first quarter-plus that OSU had: 4 drives, 4 TDs. In addition, the defense was great for the first four drives, only allowing 26 yards through the first three drives and ending a NIU threat with an interception. After that, though, the game quickly turned ugly (if you're not a OSU believer) or lethargic (if you are), as OSU missed 2 FGs and fumbled twice. Meanwhile, NIU moved the ball decently well all game - after the first quarter. It's pretty easily argued that motivation is tough when you're up by 28, but OSU didn't do a great job of answering questions on defense - not to mention there's the lingering question of if they can play for 60 minutes against Texas, who's a small step up from NIU.

4 - USC
Complete domination of a team I figured would be pretty impressive in Arkansas, at Arkansas. They started out slow - it was only 16-7 at the half - but poured it on late. Huge points to the defense for forcing 5 turnovers (3 INT, 2 fumbles). Much, much better overall effort than expected, although a win wasn't a huge surprise. Warning sign: their starting safety and punt coverage specialist Josh Pinkard tore his ACL, leaving Pete Carroll with a bunch of freshmen behind him on the depth chart.

5 - LSU
The first of the not-quite-dominating teams, LSU still turned in a solid all-around 45-3 performance. JaMarcus Russell killed most of the speculation about job security with a 13/17, 253 yd, 3 TD performance. Granted, it was against LA-Lafayette, hardly a powerhouse. Warning signs: 2 fumbles on punt returns, both recovered by LA-Laf, and losing the time of possession battle. Chalk the first up to inexperience and the second up to domination everywhere else. There's still some work to be done.

6 - West Virginia
Absolute 42-10 hammering of Marshall - check out that 300+ yards on the ground! This was pretty much to be expected, though. Every TD in the first half was scored from at least 8 yards out - and that was a pass. Must cut down on penalties (8 penalties for 90 yards) - and 315 yards with almost 150 of those on the ground seems a little high for Marshall. This isn't the Marshall of a few years ago.

7 - Virginia Tech
Sure, it was 1-AA Northeastern - hardly a great battle. However, a shutout is a shutout, even if it's expected. The defense was predictably solid and the special teams chipped in with a blocked punt and a blocked FG. The surprise was QB Sean Glennon going for 222 yards, although it remains to be seen what he can do against an actual defense.

8 - Notre Dame
Hey, you won! Good job. Next time show up for the first half, 'k? When your first 5 drives only go for 34 yards - combined - that might not be a good sign. Kudos go to the defense, which rose to the occasion, although Calvin Johnson had his way with them all night. That's more a statement of Calvin Johnson's skill than it is Notre Dame's D. Don't expect that effort to cut it against Penn State this week.

9 - Florida
Florida also holds a dubious distinction as falling behind their guaranteed victory this week, falling behind 7-0 to Southern Miss before rattling off 34 unanswered. Chris Leak had a good performance, going 22/30 for 248 yds and 3 TDs. They eventually rebounded to have a strong showing, but like Notre Dame, you can't show up for just part of the game and expect to win.

10 - Florida State
Beat Miami ... and that's about it. Don't expect that rushing total to cut it. Heck, don't expect that performance to cut it. Hideous performance by everyone except for the defense. If you listen real closely, you can hear someone registering FireJeffBowden.com.

11 - Tennessee
We don't know how good they actually are yet. We'll know more after they play Florida. But what we do know is that they looked damn impressive against Cal - going up 35-0 before subbing in the second-string guys - and while that probably also says Cal sucks, it's tough not to overvalue Erik Ainge's performance in coming back from the dead. If there were any doubts about this team's toughness, check out Montario Hardesty just schooling the Cal defenders as he shook off about 5 of them at once for UT's final TD. Looks like the Cutcliffe magic worked.

12 - Michigan
Struggled more than expected against Vanderbilt, but that can probably be chalked up to just general lethargy. They'll be ready to play against one of the directional Michigans this week. Great defensive performance by limiting the 'Dores to only 144 yards, but the offense has to wake up. Look for a woodshed beating this week to make a statement to the rest of the Big 10.

13 - Georgia
Kind of here by default. Pretty much what you expected - no clear resolution at the QB position, fantastic D and a bunch of strong runners led by Danny Ware's 65 yards. This theme will continue over the course of the year, and I think I'm going to back off on my earlier prediction of a South Carolina upset this week, as Georgia looked better than I expected and South Carolina looked hideous.

14 - Miami
Yeah, ouch. Looked horrid against Florida State, but there's still more talent here than there is anywhere else. Will struggle this week, but should rebound by getting their starting RB back from suspension.

15 - Nebraska
Fine, fine, I'll buy into Nebraska after their 49-10 pasting of Louisiana Tech. Incredibly strong second-half performance - and check out the 252 yards on the ground. Don't expect that to continue against actual defenses, but it's a pretty impressive number.

16 - Clemson
A rough-around-the-edges 54-6 victory over Florida Atlantic. Love the two fumble returns for TDs, but don't love the 4 turnovers - not to mention 360 yards seems a little light against the FAU defense.

17 - Iowa
Pretty solid 41-7 victory over Montana. Yeah, weak opponent, but that's par for the course right now. Besides, 10 yards rushing allowed is impressive no matter the opponent, not to mention doing that without sacking the QB.

18 - Louisville
Lost Michael Bush for the year. Ouch. George Stripling did a good job in his absence, along with the rest of the LB corps, but Louisville's push to unseat WVU as the top program this year in the Big East just took a huge hit.

19 - Oklahoma
Didn't we see them do this last year, too? Not a good sign for your team's hopes if Adrian Peterson goes for almost 140 yards and then is told he needs to do more. Paul Thompson looked ordinary, as did the defense (allowing 17 points against UAB? not good).

20 - Penn State
This was about right; a 34-16 solid but unspectacular victory against Akron. The defense only allowed 1 drive over 13 yards in the first half. One oddity: they turned the ball over on downs 3 times in the first half - but they were in Akron territory for all of them.

21 - Oregon
Struggled early against Stanford before waking up in a big way in their 48-10 win over the Cardinal. Probably will be tested more this week with a game against Fresno St., who have more of a well-rounded team than Stanford.

22 - Texas Tech
Played SMU to 35-3. Let's go down the Tech checklist. Solid D? Check. 300+ yards passing? Check. Uncannily sloppiness blamed on the first week? Check. (9 penalties, 70 yards) UTEP presents an actual challenge, which should be exciting.

College Football - Computers and the BCS

For our readers who are interested in the specifics about the pile of feces we are fed in place of a small postseason tournament...


BCS Formula:

The BCS forumla remains an equal-weighted average of the AP Poll, Harris Interactive, and Computer Average.

Both the AP and Harris scores are calculated based on the number of points received in each of those polls, not the truncated rankings.

The Computer Average remains the exact average of a team's middle four truncated rankings from Anderson&Hester, Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe. To my knowledge, no changes to these computer formulas have been made since last season.


BCS Format:

The BCS has expanded to being five bowls this season. They are the four BCS bowls from before, with one bowl site actually hosting two games - one a full week later. This is NOT a "BCS +1" pseudo-tournament. It just means that two more teams will make it into the BCS this season. This season, the Fiesta Bowl hosts two games.

Rose Bowl: Big Ten champ vs Pac 10 champ
Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 champ vs Open
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs Open
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs Open
National Championship: #1 vs #2. Of course, being #1 or #2 pre-empts any would-be conference tie-ins to other BCS bowls.


BCS Automatic Berths:

The BCS gives automatic qualifications to:
* The champion of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10, and SEC.
* IF the champion of CUSA, MAC, WAC, or Sun Belt is in the BCS top 12, then they get an automatic bid.
* IF the champion of CUSA, MAC, WAC, or Sun Belt is ranked in the BCS top 16 and is ranked higher than the champion of a BCS conference.
* No non-BCS conference can have more than two teams in BCS bowls. So if two qualify, the higher-ranked team goes.
* Notre Dame qualifies as long as they are either ranked in the BCS top eight, or if the number of points they've scored all season minus their number of losses is a positive integer, or if the selection committee arbitrarily decides to give them a berth.
* If a team finishes second in their conference but is ranked in the BCS top 4, then they get an automatic berth if there are any slots remaining after fulfilling the above qualifications (including Notre Dame being #8).


Compy Ratings:

I will once again be doing my own computer ratings, which last season were of comparable (read: virtually identical) accuracy to the top BCS computer polls. I won't be doing this until October, as is fairly standard for computer ratings. I'll post more about this later.

College Football - my week 1 rankings

Considering games through [edit] 9/3/06

My Top 25

1. Texas - call me biased, I thought they were the only team that showed no weaknesses... though we know, a rookie QB will be a weakness against better competition. Besides, USC got to start off ranked #1 when their title defense began ;-)

2. LSU - I was sold on this team after they pummelled Miami in the bowls. Strong in all aspects of the game, but an unforgiving schedule that includes Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee all on the road. The SEC will cannibalize themselves this year... just too many good teams, and a conference championship game on top of that.

3. Ohio State - The most explosive offense in the country. Still some questions about the defense, and the kicking game may be a problem.

4. USC - The offense doesn't appear to have lost much from last season... amazing job of reloading. Defense will still be a question in the big games.

5. Auburn - In their first game, they lived up to the preseason hype with an impressive win against a BCS conference opponent. Fortunately their schedule is a little nicer than LSU's, as they face LSU, Florida, and Georgia at home.

6. West Virginia - The offense is firing on all cylinders. The schedule is right for a path to the BCS championship. But in a hypothetical vs another top 10 team, how would the 3-3-5 stack fare against a top grade offense?

7. Georgia - Tough to judge if a team is really top 10-worthy when they faced a non-div IA opponent. But Georgia looked very good. Luckily I tend to have more flexible rankings than the voters whose votes count ;-)

8. Tennessee - Just wtfpwned Cal. As someone who had predicted the upset, even I was still surprised by the easy of this victory. I hate that they impressed me so much.

9. Florida State - by default

10. Miami - by default

11. Notre Dame - One has to think the offense will get better. The next two weeks will tell. They don't deserve to be in the top 5, but look for the AP to move them to #1... (I say this only half-sarcastically)

12. Florida - Not a bad opening performance. What sucks for them is that they play 5 teams currently in my top ten. Regardless of what the computers say, this team probably faces the toughest schedule in the nation.

13. Nebraska - The offense continues to improve, and the front seven look solid. We'll see about the secondary and how the running game fares against Big 12 defenses.

14. Michigan - Great defense, strong running game. Henne needs to regain his 2004 form if they want to crack the top ten and challenge for the Big Ten title.

15. Va Tech - The quarterback question went well in week 1. Dominant defense, and the special teams blocked a punt.

16. Lousiville - The offense rolled like a juggernaut and the defense did their job. Granted, Kentucky has been one of the worst teams in the NCAA in recent seasons. The loss of Bush drops the team, but not out of the top 25.

17. Oklahoma - AD alone makes this team a threat. But once again, he may be all they have going for them. The defense should at least come closer to expectations in future weeks.

18. Oregon - Maybe the second-best offense in the Pac 10, and at this point definitely the team most likely to challenge USC for the conference title.

19. Texas Tech - They look to be about as strong as last year's squad.

20. Iowa - I'm tempted to put them higher, but Iowa has a habit of not playing up to expectations for the entire season.

21. Clemson - Again, tough to really say given their competition.

22. Penn State - I'd like to have seen a little better performance against Akron.

23. Cal - They looked more like the #23 team taking on the #9.

24. Wisconsin - Stocco's a good QB, and the running game looked decent.

25. UCLA - I got nothing, but Alabama and ASU are not deserving of a top 25 spot after their performances. I refuse to rank TCU unless they can defeat Texas Tech.

College Football - week 1 in review

I'm apologizing in advance that this isn't going to be my most in-depth analysis. Then again, given most of these matchups through yesterday, I'm not sure if there's much point at looking too much into this...


My impressions of the AP Top 25:

1. Ohio State - For the first 15 minutes of the game, they looked like the runaway #1 in the nation. The defense got burned a few times but didn't yield any points, and the offense put up 28 almost effortlessly. The rest of the game, they didn't look too impressive. 0-2 on field goals doesn't bode well if they get into close games, as OSU has a habit of doing under Tressel.

2. Notre Dame - Weak outing all around. I'm tempted to say overrated (well, I think they are at #2, but they're possibly a legit top 10 team), but they did pull out the win and the defense did shut down GT in the second half. In fact, outside of Calvin Johnson, nobody on GT's offense did anything all game.

3. Texas - This performance was everything Longhorn fans were hoping for. McCoy looked good enough at QB to let the rest of the team win games against anybody. The defense, save for the opening drive of the second half, was fantastic in all aspects of the game, giving up just over 1 yard per play and less than half a yard per rush. Selvin Young looks like he's gotten faster, and Jamaal Charles was what we'd expect. At receiver, Sweed looked great but some of the other players didn't step up. A possible injury to center Sendlein could figure into the game against Ohio State.

4. Auburn - Started out the game failing to capitalize, the Tigers settled for 4 FGs on their opening 4 possessions, and so despite dominating they were up only 12-7. On the plus side, Vaughn appears to have regained his confidence after missing numerous field goals in a loss to LSU last season. Of course they would wake up to win this game 40-14. The backfield was great, defense solid particularly against the pass. Irons was a beast.

5. West Virginia - Slaton and White torched the Herd in the spread option, but what might be particularly frightening to opponents is how good White looked passing. If this offense becomes two-dimensional, the Mounties should end up undefeated.

6. USC - What looked like it was going to be a close game quickly turned into a blowout in the third quarter, as USC continued their tradition of turning games around at halftime. Booty was great in his first start, and while a dropoff from Bush/White, Washington, Moody, and Gable appear to be a strong backfield trio. The defense again appears to be geared towards forcing turnovers, giving up 5 yards per play but with 2 fumble recoveries and 3 interceptions. The extent of this blowout also may have proven premature any speculation that Arkansas was climbing the SEC ranks.

7. Florida - Despite the 34-7 victory, this did not look like the #7 team in the nation. Leak settled into the game in the second quarter, the running game was an improvement over last season, but the defense gave up nearly 5 yards per play and benefitted from 3 picks and a missed FG.

8. LSU - Perhaps most importantly, the Tigers seem to have settled on Russell at QB and will not be doing a rotation. This was every bit the blowout you'd expect in this matchup.

9. Cal - The first team to be badly overrated. Cal surrendered 35 points in 35 minutes, with three touchdowns coming from would-be short plays combined with missed tackles. The equally touted offense was held scoreless until the game was all but decided. Longshore may have lost his starting position, though Ayoob was not much better. I still think this team needs Levy at QB for their offense to work. Marshawn Lynch looked nothing like a Heisman contender, and Forsett was completely shut down.

10. Oklahoma - You don't have to go much further to find the second team to be badly overrated, though this was a little more expected with Thompson at QB. OU inexplicably went away from Peterson in the first half, and the offense appeared better when they went to him in the second. But again that will make it difficult for them to keep up with high-octane offenses or to score against better defenses. And speaking of defense, this did not look like the #1 unit in the nation against UAB.

11. Florida State - playing tomorrow

12. Miami FL - playing tomorrow

13. Louisville - The team dominated Kentucky in every aspect of the game, scoring at ease and shutting down UK's offense. But the team probably lost Bush for the season due to injury.

14. Michigan - The defense was beastly, allowing just 2.5 ypp and 7 points off a trick play. The offense, however, was sporadic with Henne completing just 48% of his passes, Grady coughing up a fumble, and Rivas missing a FG. Hart was a workhorse, but he cannot carry this offense alone as the schedule gets more difficult.

15. Georgia - The Bulldogs dominated this game as expected. The defense and special teams were showcased and both came up with strong performances. That combination has proven deadly for Georgia, with opponents repeatedly starting at or inside their own 20 vs one of the conference's best defenses.

16. Iowa - About what you'd expect vs a non-div IA opponent. Tate could have been better and Young did cough up a fumble, but the defense was solid.

17. Virginia Tech - Glennon was a monster at QB. It's not just that he completed over 80% of his passes against a pathetic defense, but his mechanics and arm strength were impressive. I'd like to have seen the running game perform a bit better, and Davelli did miss a FG.

18. Clemson - Despite a 54-6 score, I felt that the team could have played better. Dean missed both a PAT and a FG. The defense gave up 200 yards through the air, and Proctor threw a pick and gave up a fumble.

19. Penn State - Though a solid performance, this is obviously not the team they were a season ago. The defense held the Zips to barely over 200 yards and forced two interceptions, but the offense was held under 300 and gave up two fumbles. Morelli looked solid at QB but won't be what Robinson was a year ago. Only two plays went for over 20 yards.

20. Nebraska - The Huskers looked great in all aspects on offense and against the run as well, though the secondary may be the weak spot.

21. Oregon - The offense looked scary in both facets, with Johnson providing good spells for Stewart at RB and Dixon running the spread option very well. Defense was a little more shaky, but ultimately surrendered just 10 points.

22. TCU - The Horned Frogs trailed Baylor 7-0 at halftime before rebounding to win 17-7, an unimpressive victory considering the opposition. Both teams gained 330 yards, and had the Bears not had two untimely red zone turnovers, the result may have gone in their favor.

23. Tennessee - Though aided by poor tackling, the Vols offense nonetheless looks revitalized from an awful 2005 campaign. Ainge was very sharp in the pocket and the backfield was able to pound on Cal with three solid backs. Questions at linebacker appear to have been answered, and the secondary was very impressive, particularly Wade who jarred a handful of would-be completions loose.

24. Arizona State - The Sun Devils continue to be a team that can throw the ball very well, and that's about it. The secondary was shredded by NAU, though the running game did get going once Carpenter started rolling at QB. Though losing Keller hurts, Carpenter was the correct choice for starting QB.

25. Texas Tech - Harrell had the kind of game you'd expect from a Texas Tech quarterback, proving that it is indeed the system. WRs looked good and the running game had some life. The secondary played well but I'd be concerned about SMU gaining so many yards on the ground.

Updates and A New Look

So - after a month of being dormant, I got the bit in my teeth again. Oddly, this time it's not about baseball, like all the previous posts have been about. Nope. I've got an outlet to talk about college football (and if anyone's been wondering when that other contributer was going to start showing up, now's about the time - he's huge into college football, too), and I'm going to take it.

On top of that, I've also got a much more stable internet connection now. It's hard to post entries when you're not sure if your internet connection is going to stay active long enough for you to actually post. However, that problem is fixed (I hope - I don't think it'll just outright die, for what it's worth). Does that mean regular entries again? Well, I can't guarantee that, but I'll certainly do my best.

Either way, I'm off to read about college football. Look for conference previews in the next couple of weeks.

Early Series: Week of 6/19/06

...even though the post is a day late. Still, it's the first time I've even updated in forever.

It's interleague week, which means both new matchups that aren't terribly common and horrible matchups that should never have happened in the first place. In other words, it's like any given week. There's a clear-cut "best" series, in my opinion, with a bunch of second and third-level series in terms of interest. Your mileage may vary on them.

#5: Cincinnati Reds (38-32, W1, 2-8 in last 10) @ New York Mets (43-26, L1, 7-3 in last 10)

Pitching Matchups:
6/20: Ramirez vs Trachsel
6/21: Mays vs Soler
6/22: Milton vs Martinez

There was a game on Monday as well - the Reds won that one (the current streaks reflect that). Anyway, this is your classic tale of two teams headed in opposite directions, with not much of anything going right for the Reds after their blistering start to the season, while the Mets are cruising, hammering everyone else in the NL East.

For the Reds:
Starting pitching and bullpen support are going to be the keys for them. Unfortunately, they haven't gotten either of those in the last few weeks. If they get them, they should be able to win one of the last 3 games in the series (realistically, either the 6/20 or 6/21 games).

For the Mets:
It's tough to give recommendations for what to do to win when that's what you've been doing. Offense shouldn't be a huge deal the rest of the series; Milton is the best pitcher out of the ones remaining, and I'm on record as to how much I think he sucks. I'd be surprised if they win less than 2 of the last 3 games.

#4: San Diego Padres (36-33, W1, 5-5 in last 10) @ Texas Rangers (38-32, W3, 6-4 in last 10)

Pitching Matchups:
6/20: Thompson vs Padilla
6/21: Young vs Rheinecker
6/22: Hensley vs Millwood

Fun sideplots here, as Chris Young goes back to Texas. Oddly enough, he's also the only starter from last year's Rangers rotation that's actually pitching in this series. In terms of major plots, it's the only battle between division-leading teams this part of the week.

For the Padres:
They should score, but Young will actually be hurt, as he's a flyball pitcher. Then again, he knows the park. However, these guys can't hit. This means they'll probably struggle to do much of anything in this series.

For the Rangers:
Homefield advantage and a bad hitting ballclub puts the Rangers almost entirely in the driver's seat here. They're on a minor roll, and I wouldn't be surprised if that continues as the Rangers take 2 out of 3 from the Pads.

#3: Florida Marlins (27-39, W8, 9-1 in last 10) @ Baltimore Orioles (32-39, L1, 4-6 in last 10)

Pitching Matchups:
6/20: Willis vs Cabrera
6/21: Nolasco vs Bedard
6/22: Olsen vs Benson

I'll admit it - I'm really intrigued about this 9-1 record the Marlins have put up. That's why they're on here; the kids are playing, but they're playing well. Who would've thought?

For the Marlins:
The fun part for the Fish is that any win's gravy for them. Nobody expected anything of them whatsoever, and they're at least able to sniff second place in this division, which would've gotten you sent to a mental institution if you had said that before. Still, though, why could they not take 2 out of 3 against a struggling Orioles team that, for all the changes they've made, looks like every other O's team from the last 6 years?

For the Orioles:
Homefield advantage will help (yay DH), and they should get their shots in against a bunch of young pitchers. Not to mention the Florida bullpen is horrible. The key for the O's is to have their starters not give up the game early. Look for a bunch of 6-5 games, with the O's taking two.

#2: New York Yankees (38-30, L3, 3-7 in last 10) @ Philadelphia Phillies (35-35, W2, 3-7 in last 10)

Pitching Matchups:
6/20: Mussina vs Lidle
6/21: Wright vs Hamels

Yeah, I know their records in the last 10 games are horrid. But this series is an excellent opportunity for both teams, as well as a pretty important challenge. That's a little more true for the Phils, who rose to the occasion last night with a 4-2 victory.

For the Yankees:
They need wins here after blowing leads in 3 straight games. It's probably just as important to them to get innings from their starters, which is something that's been at least somewhat lacking. Wang's complete game loss and Johnson's 7 innings were an important moment. Basically, any semblance of momentum will be viewed as a good thing.

For the Phillies:
The Mets are running away with the division, but there's not a clear challenger for second place yet, which means the Phils have a good lockdown on it. They've already won once in the series, so if they can keep that up, they should be fine to walk out of here with a series victory.

#1: St. Louis Cardinals (42-26, W4, 7-3 in last 10) @ Chicago White Sox (44-25, W4, 8-2)

Pitching Matchups:
6/20: Mulder vs Vazquez
6/21: Marquis vs Buehrle
6/22: Reyes vs Garcia

Yup, this is the big one, almost unquestionably. No teams with better records are facing off against each other, no bigger win streaks are colliding. This is the big one.

For the White Sox:
You would've thought that by this point the Tigers had faded, right? Not so much - the White Sox are still in second place in the AL Central, although they have a deathgrip on the Wild Card. We know these guys actually are this good - after all, they're the defending World Series champions. These should be good games, and the Sox should walk out with at least 2 of them. Homefield advantage, better starting pitching, and no Pujols effect give the Sox a clear advantage.

For the Cards:
When your closest competitor in the division is not only imploding, but going up against a hot team, that doesn't put you in a very stressful position. Again, they could obviously use the wins, but they're not necessary. What's important for them is hoping that Anthony Reyes puts in a good start on Thursday. He's their young gun, the wave of the future. What's also important for them is getting a healthy Pujols as quick as possible. That should happen soonish, though.

Adjusted HR Update

So - I've compiled the information from 2005 on the Adjusted HR Rate. I've also added something else in called the Adjusted Run Rate. Basically, this current incarnation is similar in idea to the Adjusted HR Rate, only it measures how many runs a team scores per HR against how many it allows per HR. I have yet to decide if it's a good or bad thing to have a negative value, although I fortunately do know what negative values mean. (Half the time with studies and analysis, the main issue is figuring out what the numbers you get actually mean. I've got that so far.) I haven't had a chance to analyze the data and figure out if I can bring up anything concrete from it, but that part's done, at least.

So Much for the Updates

Yeah, I had this brilliant idea to update daily, and then reality set in. Can't win them all, I guess. Obviously at this point it's a little late to do a Late Series for ....well, Sunday and possibly Monday, so I'll get it on Memorial Day.

I did love how I completely whiffed the Cubs/Marlins series "prediction" earlier this week. I'm going to now go ahead to blame my lack of updating on shame.

So what the hell am I going to do with this now? Well, I'm still going to do the Early/Late Series posts, as I find them interesting. With June coming shortly, that means there's a good chance I'll break out with the Divisional Updates again. That being said, though, I'm starting to run out of things to do. It's fine and all to run around each division giving general updates on each team, but you can find that on your own. That's why I've linked those guys on the right. (Look for me to finally link a Dodgers blog here shortly.) I might do closer team studies at some point during the season - it's been tempting to bust out some "Focus on [Division]" weeks where all the posts are about the specific division in question, updating all the major stories coming out of it and so forth, but again, that seems like a small cop-out to me. Not so small I won't do it, however. ;)

I've been studying some of Bill James' work lately - and that of those who have followed in his footsteps. In other words, I think I'm about to start doing some statistical analysis. What will be the point of the analysis? My initial idea was to figure out whether the small-ball approach was better than the massive homer approach - or vice versa - but that's already been done before, and I'd rather not tread along the line of insanely obvious and overdone if I can help it. That being said, I'm still keen on figuring out if there's any correlation between home runs given up / allowed and winning percentage. Specifically, this would be runs scored / HR and runs given up / HR.

One thing I haven't quite figured out is why the batter that leads the league in HR has at least 50, but it's rare to see a pitcher give up more than 35 - Eric Milton included. Will this research answer my question? Maybe.

Basically, what I'm doing - and what I will post about shortly; look for it early next week or so - is compiling a bunch of HR-related data from every team in 2005 and seeing if I can find some sort of correlation. Then I'll do the same with 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 2000; as sample sizes go, it's not a Jamesian "let's take data from the last 91 years", but 6 years should be enough to find at least SOME kind of comparison. Consider this a pre-emptive thanks to baseball-reference.com.

The comparisons that I'm tackling first:

- What is the league average HR/AB, and did teams that performed above it have better records than teams that performed below it?

- What is the league average batters/HR given up, and did teams that performed above it have better records than teams that performed below it?

- What is the correlation between the first question and the second question: in other words, what will the Adjusted HR Rate tell me?

Of course, the initial question there is what's the Adjusted HR Rate. For me, I'm defining it as thus:

AdjHR = (HR hit / AB had) - (HR given up / batters faced)

More to come later.