Tennessee Volunteers '09: Rebound?

The 2008 Season in a Box
Tennessee’s 2008 season wasn’t as much in a box as much as it was in a brown paper bag, lit on fire and then dropped on the school nerd’s doorstep. The offense was fittingly enough trapped in some kind of Byzantine cage, never even approaching what anyone rational would term “on-track”. The only offensive highlights were against hapless UAB before everyone realized the Clawfense was a horrible mistake and an emotional, end-of-season victory over Kentucky. The defense, thankfully, was much better and the unequivocal star of the show; of course, the defense didn’t have a choice, since they spent about 31:30 on the field per game.

After another completely inept offensive performance against South Carolina, Tennessee mainstay Phillip Fulmer stepped down – effective at the end of the season, of course. It didn’t really fix anything, but Tennessee was able to “rebound” to go 2-1 (and yes, it should’ve been 3-0), including notching yet another victory over Kentucky. And then things got weird. Lane Kiffin, the Recruiting Chimera, and the Parade of Secondary Violations showed up in Knoxville, and it’s been at least an interesting offseason.

Why Should This Season Be Any Different?
Well, other than the entirely new coaching staff and burgeoning running back stable, there’s not a whole lot of reason to think it’ll be different other than luck. At the margins, there were a few reasons to be excited; the Vols actually outgained their opponents for the season, but those of you that are smart know that came in fits and starts, helped in no small part by a quality effort against UAB and a decent showing against UCLA. Aside from those two games, the Vols’ offense didn’t top 315 yards in any game, and only topped 250 yards in three other games.

Even though most of the key personnel return, there are a few things to like. For one, while this will be a new offense yet again, it won’t take two years to institute it like Clawsen’s offense did. (Presumably the coaching staff has also realized Jonathan Crompton lacks the mental acuity to handle complex tasks and won’t roll the entire thing out at once.) Monte Kiffin coming to college to institute his defense should be a lot of fun to watch, and he’s got one heck of a NFL talent to build on. There’s also a special teams coach now, too. Really, at the end of the day there’s just too much talent at Tennessee to tank to the tune of 5-7 again; sure, 8-4 may be the peak, but the breaks can’t be as painful as they were last season.

On Offense
Well, Jonathan Crompton sure sucked last year; 51.5% with a 4/5 ratio won’t get a damn thing done and it doesn’t matter who you are. He’ll open the season as the starter again since there’s not a whole lot else there; Nick Stephens never really got integrated with the first-team offense until it was too late, then got injured during spring practice, and realistic challenger B.J. Coleman transferred. I’d be surprised if Crompton plays worse this season than he did last year, and if he can obtain separation from Stephens early with competent-to-quality play that’ll do a lot to assuage the doubts of Tennessee fans. If he struggles, the cries for Stephens will get louder. Either way, I’d expect about a 55-57% peak completion percentage from either of them; they simply haven’t given me reason to think otherwise. The TD/INT ratio should get better, and the god-awful yards per attempt (5.7 across the team last year) should improve, if not to anything around 8 YPA at least to the 7 range.

Of course, improved QB play won’t matter if there’s nobody to throw it to. This year will be Gerald Jones’ chance to shine; not only is he the leading receiver returning from last year’s corps (unutilized talent Lucas Taylor departs), but he’s the most explosive player. Of course, it won’t be that easy; expected 2nd and 3rd options Denarius Moore and Austin Rogers are both injured, Rogers for the entire season. When healthy, Moore will be expected to serve as deep threat; don’t expect him to average 25 yards per catch like he did last year, but 18+ may not be out of the question. They’ll need someone to show up as the possession WR-type, but Tennessee will have to develop a passing game that’ll stretch any kind of zone coverage. (That’s another post in itself.) Tight end won’t be a big passing concern; Luke Stocker is solid but unspectacular. The wild card with the passing game is Brandon Warren. Warren originally transferred from Florida State to be closer to his grandmother, had to sit out a season, spent last year mostly on the sideline, then moved to WR, then went through hell during spring practice. There’s no guarantee what his role will be this season, but he wasn’t a Freshman All-American for nothing; the kid is talented. So is incoming freshman Nu’Keese Richardson.

Regardless of how the passing game breaks down, the Volunteer offense will likely depend on the running game (and interception returns, but I’m getting ahead of myself). Of course, even that can’t go entirely according to plan; Arian Foster graduated and Lennon Creer – thought to be the heir apparent – transferred, leaving Montario Hardesty and a stable of true freshmen as the stars of the crop. Presumptive backup and depth man Tauren Poole is already injured, meaning both Bryce Brown and David Oku will have to step up and into the rotation. On aggregate, the running game should be improved; fumbles should be down a bit but not too much, but the total 122 ypg average the crew pulled last year should move up a notch. There are a bit too many variables to take a stab at distribution at this point in time, though.

Formation-wise, I’d expect some pro-style derivative. Most of the key offensive coaching personnel came from USC, so signs point to something like that. Their approach will probably be fairly conservative for this season, but remember that USC has made a living off of a quality QB and a stable of RBs; that’s where Kiffin and the crew are trying to pull Tennessee. It may just take them a few years.

On Defense and Special Teams
Really, the Volunteer defense ends with Eric Berry. Why’s it end with him? Because you have no shot in hell of getting past him, so don’t even try. Berry was studtastic last year, garnering a first-team All-American selection and getting screwed out of the Jim Thorpe Award. Calling him a star would be an understatement, to put it mildly.

As for the rest of the D, Rico McCoy and a fair amount of the secondary return, but there are going to be some new faces up front – Tennessee graduated half of its starters from last year, chief among them Broncos’ draftee Robert Ayers. Nick Reveiz is probably the quintessential new face; he’s the current starting MLB and gets mistaken for a kicker. Good times.

Don’t expect quite as statistically dominant a season this year as last year; that won’t happen for numerous reasons, not the least of which is simple luck regression. The defense will be quality and should do a decent job of forcing turnovers, especially in the secondary. (Not to mention Berry is probably worth 3 defensive TDs on his own.)

Monte must be so happy to get to college ball and get a guy like Berry to function in the John Lynch role in the Tampa-2. He’ll likely have to adapt it for the slightly slower college game, but it goes without saying that Monte does one heck of a job rolling out quality defensive units year after year. I also wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a learning curve in the first year or two – or if the Vols roll out a simplified Tampa-2.

Special teams …well, doesn’t look that special right now. Daniel Lincoln returns, but other than that there isn’t anything to call home over. Dennis Rogan is a talented return man who maybe just hasn’t gotten the blocking yet or something, because his return numbers haven’t matched up with his capabilities yet. Maybe a dedicated special teams coach will help.

So What’s Their Bowl Game?
Really, as much as I hate to say it, these guys are a Music City Bowl-quality team right now. There are simply too many questions to think otherwise; if things break right they could sneak into the Outback, but right now Tennessee is sitting squarely in the lower half of the SEC East. They’re certainly better than Vandy (and likely Kentucky, who profile like a quasi-Tennessee), but South Carolina walloped the Vols last year and likely will again. Maybe they sneak a major upset, but I think it’s more likely an early-season win against UCLA lets them sneak to 6 wins at the lower end and they pull off one against this year’s SEC top dogs – or medium dogs, as it were

And let’s not talk about the QB situation for next season.

All the lack of activity doesn't preclude a lack of action

So there was supposed to be some pretty big news we'd be posting right around this time, but that ...well, that didn't quite go according to plan. So we may or may not be in a holding pattern - truth be told, even I don't have an answer on that one yet and I'm half the decision-making body. Still, we'll figure it out and be sure to announce it here when we have something; it should be one heck of a deal and I'm excited about what's coming up.

In the meantime, just because there haven't been posts doesn't mean I haven't been writing. I had a whole host of posts that I wanted to publish but the prior paragraph got in the way, so in the meantime we'll have the most regular batch of content we've had here in ages. No sense in sitting on content.

Big 12 WR/TE Preview

In 2008, the Big 12 was known for its quarterbacks, but the wide receiver/tight end crop was equally deep. Some stars such as Michael Crabtree and Chase Coffman are gone, but the conference will still be strong at these positions in 2009.

Wide Receivers

1. Dez Bryant, OSU
In addition to hauling in 1480 yards and 19 TDs in 2008, Bryant chipped in as a punt returner, recording 305 yds ret and 2 TDs. He's on the outskirts of most Heisman lists, and should be your #1 WR pick from the Big 12.

2. Jordan Shipley, Texas
After a few seasons hampered by injury, Shipley finally had a chance to show Texas fans what they had heard since his recruitment - this guy is an elite college receiver. He produced nearly identical stats as Quan Cosby, but with Cosby gone in 2009 Shipley could easily catch 100 passes and further improve his yardage total. He also scored special teams touchdowns against Oklahoma and Texas Tech.

3. Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas
Briscoe had a great 2008 season, hauling in the next-most yards in the conference after Dez Bryant. I don't know if he will duplicate those numbers - that was a jump of nearly 1000 yards compared to 2007; I'd almost think something's gotta give. But regardless, he's easily in the preseason top 3 for the conference.

4. Detron Lewis, Texas Tech
It'd be criminal not to put a Tech receiver in the top five. Of TTU's three top receivers from 2008, Lewis is the only one returning. He's likely to be the #1 target in 2009, and therefore top 1000 yards.

5. Kerry Meier, Kansas
Meier completed the transition from backup QB beautifully, hauling in 1045 yards and 8 TDs in 2008. I don't see any real reason for improvement nor decline in 2009, short of problems with the new offensive line.

6. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma
Putting up just 687 yards in 2008, Broyles could be Sam Bradford's top outside target (ie, the guy he looks at after Gresham) in 2009 as he is the only one of OU's top four WRs returning.

7. Edward Britton, Texas Tech
Britton had three big games down the stretch - against Texas, Kansas, and Mississippi. For the last two seasons he's produced decent stats while Crabtree shined, now's his turn to join the first line of the Air Raid.

8. Kendall Wright, Baylor
If Griffin is going to have a huge season shredding defenses, and you'd better believe he is, he's going to need someone to throw to. Kendall Wright was his #1 target in 2009 -- bonus that (unlike Gettis), he hauled in some TDs as well.

9. Danario Alexander, Missouri
Alexander has produced minimally at Missouri thus far, but should easily earn one of the top two spots on the team. His size makes him more difficult to cover than Perry, which could affect who the pro-style recruit at QB targets first.

10. Jared Perry, Missouri
Perry's snagged 91 passes in his career at Mizzou despite being pretty far down on the depth chart. In 2009, he could be the primary receiver.

11. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
Tannehill pulled in 844 yds and 5 TDs on a struggling Aggie offense in 2008. He's competing for the starting QB position in 2009, but in the likely event that Jerrod Johnson wins out, Tannehill should put up similar numbers.

Other Receivers (in no particular order):

John Chiles, Texas - Athlete converting from QB to WR. We'll see how his hands hold up against game-level defenses, but his open-field abilities are already proven. I consider this a high risk-high reward pick.
Brandon Collins, Texas - Hauled in 13 passes in the final two games, and had a 6 rec outing against Missouri. No more than 2 rec in any other game, however, and right now it's looking like he's 4th on the depth chart.
Darius Darks, Iowa State - Darks had a strong season as a freshman, finishing second in receiving yards on the Cyclones. The top receiver (RJ Sumrall) graduated, so Darks has a good chance to shine here.
Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M - 630 rec, 9 TD in 2008. If you're not opposed to drafting Aggies on offense (in which case, why aren't you?) then you might look for him to duplicate this.
James Kirkendoll, Texas - Had 12 rec in his final three games (DNP against A&M), after recording just 9 in the first nine. The departure of Cosby will mean McCoy is looking his way far more often.
Tramain Swindall, Texas Tech - Hey! Texas Tech WR! Alright!
Adron Tennell, Oklahoma - Tennell was a big-time recruit but has contributed minimally in three seasons. He will likely be the #2 receiver on the depth chart in 2009.
Malcolm Williams, Texas - Nearly a third of his receiving yards in 2008 came on an awesome 91-yard bomb against Texas Tech, where he basically ran past the cornerback, then ran past the safety. I'm excited to see this speedster on the field more in 2009.

Notes:
* Four Texas receivers in the "Other Receivers" list is more indicative of the status of Texas' depth chart than anything else. Shipley is the sure #1 receiver. Whoever solidifies the position of #2, and perhaps #3, will have a good season, but there's no reason to believe Texas will produce five receivers of any meaningful fantasy value.

* Colorado, Kansas State, and Texas A&M should have poor passing offenses in 2009, and I would avoid WRs from their teams. Nebraska is more of a question mark - their projected starters are Menelik Holt and Niles Paul, but as both are first-year starters with little experience, also working with a QB who has thrown just a handful of passes in his college career, I cannot recommend either one unless you believe Nebraska's offense will be better than expected.


Tight Ends

1. Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
Gresham is essentially a gigantic wide receiver. A year ago, he put 950 yards and 14 TDs in the stat books. The departure of most of OU's receiving corps may hurt Bradford's stats, but it'll make sure that that many more passes are coming Gresham's way. He's good for 1000, a rare luxury in a TE.

2. Blaine Irby, Texas
I'm looking down the list of B12 TEs, and I cannot justify putting many of these other names second -- there is simply no player to compete with Gresham nor replace Coffman. Irby caught 10 passes for 95yd 2TD in 2008 despite playing just three games (injury), stats that would project out well over a full season. Texas threw the ball a lot to TEs in 2004-07, and with Cosby's absence felt by the offense I expect McCoy to look to the big guy over the middle once again.

3. Mike McNeill, Nebraska
McNeill just set a Nebraska school record for receiving yards by a tight end (442). With such talent, we could see the system modified to get him the ball a bit more often in 2009, as the Huskers are breaking in several new starting WRs.

4. Jamie McCoy, Texas A&M
McCoy had 500 rec yards in 2008 and should again be the #3 target of this passing game in 2009. Bonus that A&M QBs typically have a good enough arm to dump off to the TE/RB.

5. Jeron Mastrud, Kansas State
Mastrud has seen steady improvement by about 100 yards a season for his three years at KSU. The effect that Snyder's return will have on the system remains unknown, but Mastrud is one of the productive TEs returning to the conference.

6. Justin Akers, Baylor
Akers is a converted WR playing TE, which is always good for fantasy stats. Two years ago, he caught passes for 480 yards despite being on a pre-Cream Baylor offense. With Griffin requiring all 11 defenders to contain, Akers could have another solid season.

Big 12 RB Preview

We take things for granted in Big 12 country, but not every team in America has a 4000+ yard passer, and 65% completions isn't universally considered an off week. In many of these other conferences, they have such a lack of confidence in the quarterback's ability to find even one of his five receivers open, that they just give the ball to someone standing behind the line of scrimmage, and say "have at it!" Most fantasy leagues reflect this passing deficiency, and have several starting spots reserved for such "rushing-backs."

1. Kendall Hunter, OSU
Hunter is the #1 back on the #1 rushing offense in the Big 12. In 2008, he was the only back in the conference to average over 100 ypg on the ground (1555 yds, 16 TD rush) and with most of the key ingredients returning in 2009, he should minimally duplicate those numbers. I'd look for him to break 1700, as the loss of TE Brandon Pettigrew may force the offense to shift plays over to the ground game.

2. DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma
DeMarco Murry was on pace to lead the Sooners in rushing in 2008, were it not for missing the Big 12 Championship Game and the BCS Championship game, a player that was sorely missed in a close setback against the Florida Gators. While the two may produce similar ground totals, Murray caught passes for 395 yards and 4 TDs to Brown's 109 yards and 1 TD - his use as an outlet receiver make him the better fantasy pick.

3. Chris Brown, Oklahoma
Brown led the Sooners in rushing and in TDs scored in 2008. I only have him behind Murray as that is his spot on the depth chart - if Murray stays healthy, I expect slightly better numbers from him. However, Brown is the preferred back in goalline situations. Might be more valuable in leagues awarding bonus points for tasteless Rihanna jokes.

4. Roy Helu, Nebraska
Helu put up 803 yards despite starting 2008 in Marlon Lucky's shadow. Now Lucky's gone, and new QB Zac Lee has minimal experience. The Huskers should be looking to lean on their back with some experience while the offense gels.

5. Jay Finley, Baylor
People who doubt my bold calls for a Bears Breakout in 2009 may shy away from this one, at least for one or two more picks in the conference. But let's look at the facts: Finley rushed for just 207 yards and 3.8 ypc in 2007 before Hope arrived on campus, then exploded for 865 (5.8) and 7 TDs in 2008. He also caught a pair of sweet tosses to the end zone from The Creamster. Folks, Baylor is the storm nobody sees coming in 2009, not only are they going to finish with a winning record but they will produce a pair of 1000 yard rushers. By technicality, they cannot both be Griffin, so this in the next logical choice.

6. Jake Sharp, Kansas
Sharp quietly ran for 860 and 12 in 2008, and should be good for the same this season. If you have your doubts about The Epic Rise of the Bears, draft Sharp 5th.

7. Keith Toston, OSU
Toston largely played mop-up duty in 2008, gaining 686 yards on 6.7 ypc. Towards the end of the season, his ratio of carries relative to Hunter's were increasing, and I expect OSU to focus their offense even more around the ground attack in 2009. Toston might not reach 1000, but he should top 800.

8. Derrick Washington, Missouri
Washington was a 1000-yard rusher in 2008, but he's all that returns of the once-mighty Tigers' offense. He'll get his carries, as Missouri tries to protect sophomore Blaine Gabbert, who's moving up from third on the depth chart to starting QB. But defenses won't be scrambling like mad to cover Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman with Chase Daniel's precision passing, so expect the fronts to be a lot sturdier.

9. Darrell Scott, Colorado
Scott had a limited 2008 due to injury problems, and carried just 87 times. Nonetheless, the former #1 RB recruit is expected to be the starter in 2009 for an offense that can't do much other than run the ball.

10. Baron Batch, Texas Tech
Texas Tech had their best rushing year in... forever?... in 2008. Really, the air attack was so good, even for Tech's lofty standards, that teams had to sacrifice run support to contain Harrell's barrage. With a new QB, Michael Crabtree taking off for the NFL, and three new starters on the OL, look for Tech's ground game to falter a bit.

11. Alexander Robinson, Iowa State
Robinson was a 700 yard rusher in 2008, and with Arnaud returning at QB the offense will probably put up about the same numbers.

12. Vondrell McGee, Texas
I feel compelled to mention again that the Big 12 is not a running conference. McGee gained 376 yards in 2008, sharing the workload with now departed Chris Ogbonnaya. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, while McGee's carries should improve, the Texas offense will still be centered around Colt McCoy, and jumbo back Cody Johnson will still be the short yardage specialist. McGee may be looking at 500-700 yards rushing this season, but more would require a fundamental change to the offense like like Greg Davis deciding to limit McCoy's rushing attempts.

13. Cody Johnson, Texas
Johnson was one of four Texas RBs to gain between 250 and 400 yards in 2008, a sign of the offensive philosophy. (giving the ball to the RB is what we do when we not only want to mix things up by not passing, but want to trick the defense even more by not having McCoy run it) Johnson shouldn't put up big yards -- I think Foswhitt Whittaker is going to take over half of Ogbonnaya's carries, and the rest by McGee - but this is the goalline back, and he punched the ball in 12 times last season. In the scheme of things, Johnson scored 12 rush TD, McCoy 11, and all other Texas RBs combined for 10.

15. Rodney Stewart, Colorado
Stewart actually ran for 622 yards in 2008, although he was a non-factor in the non-existent passing game. However, the Buffs' leading back ran for just two TDs. That's because Colorado doesn't score touchdowns - they punt. The Buffs offense is in such disarray, this rushing total may well decrease, and in any case the team certainly isn't putting points on the board.

Things to note:

* Colorado has talent at the RB position and a creative coach who can design plays to open up the field... but star receiver Josh Smith is transferring, and with him go the Buffs' ability to stretch the field.

* Kansas State was a devastating option team under Bill Snyder up until his retirement. The trademark slate of FCS schools is back on the schedule; if you're feeling risky, gamble that the ground stats are back with it.

Fantasy Football - Big 12 QB Preview

The Big 12 was the conference of quarterbacks in 2008, combining talent at the position behind beefy offensive lines in a conference where some phenom receivers outclassed the skill in the secondary. To recap, Sam Bradford threw for 50 TDs and won the Heisman, Colt McCoy set an NCAA completion % record at 77%, Graham Harrell threw for over 5,000 yards, and Chase Daniel topped 4,500 - for the first few weeks having thrown more TDs than incompletions. The conference was documented as having the best passing season for a conference in the BCS era, beating out the 2002 Pac 10.

2008 Statistics, with returning players bolded:
Graham Harrell: 442/626, 71%, 5111 yds, 45 TD, 9 INT, -15 yds rush, 6 TD
Sam Bradford: 328/483, 68%, 4720 yds, 50 TD, 8 INT, 47 yds rush, 5 TD
Colt McCoy: 332/433, 77%, 3859 yds, 34 TD, 8 INT, 561 yds rush, 11 TD
Chase Daniel: 385/528, 73%, 4335 yds, 39 TD, 18 INT, 281 yds rush, 1 TD
Todd Reesing: 329/495, 67%, 3888 yds, 32 TD, 13 INT, 224 yds rush, 4 TD
Zac Robinson: 204/314, 65%, 3064 yds, 25 TD, 10 INT, 562 yds rush, 8 TD
Josh Freeman: 224/382, 59%, 2945 yds, 20 TD, 8 INT, 404 yds rush, 14 TD
Robert Griffin: 160/267, 56%, 2091 yds, 15 TD, 3 INT, 843 yds rush, 13 TD
Joe Ganz: 285/420, 68%, 3568 yds, 25 TD, 11 INT, 258 yds rush, 5 TD
Austen Arnaud: 247/401, 62%, 2792 yds, 15 TD, 10 INT, 401 yds rush, 5 TD
Jerrod Johnson: 194/326, 60%, 2435 yds, 21 TD, 10 INT, 114 yds rush, 3 TD
Cody Hawkins: 183/320, 57%, 1892 yds, 17 TD, 10 INT, -23 yds rush, 3 TD

2009 will not be a duplication of those conference-wide numbers. However, there will be about a half-dozen really potent offenses in the conference, led by QBs that will be putting up strong fantasy values.

1. Colt McCoy, Texas
Sure, I'm a homer. But Texas returns every major receiver except for Quan Cosby - importantly, including Jordan Shipley (there was some concern about this after the Fiesta Bowl). Athlete/backup QB John Chiles has decided he's tired of waiting in McCoy's shadow, and converted to WR during the offseason. He will be a real playmaker in the open field assuming his hands make him a viable target. Williams and Kirkendoll became more involved in the offense later in the season and are back as well. Up front, the Horns return 4 starters on the offensive line - the lone new starter is Michael Huey, a junior right guard who was a top 10 prospect at that position. The pieces are all there - Texas will have a stronger offense in 2009 if McCoy even stays at the same level he was at in 2008.

Texas also has an embarassingly easy nonconference schedule for a title contender (ULM, Wyoming, UTEP, UCF) while Oklahoma faces BYU, Idaho State, Tulsa, and Miami FL - in all, Oklahoma has Steele's #3-toughest schedule in the country while Texas is just #40. With the easier schedule and with more starters returning, McCoy should have the better season of two great choices at QB.

2. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
I think a lot of people will argue Bradford is the #1 B12 QB pick. However, Oklahoma is returning just five starters on offense. Every player on the offensive line is new save for Trent Williams at LT. Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson are both gone, as is Quentin Chaney the #4WR. That is just shy of 2400 receiving yards between the three of them. Now, super tight end Jermaine Gresham is returning, and Adron Tennell was a big recruit who will now get the chance to step up as a senior. But I'm expecting Oklahoma to go a little more back to the running game this year as they are returning two 1000-yard rushers. A more balanced attack may be good for the Sooners, but that and the loss of so many WR/OL will probably see Bradford's numbers drop in 2009. Not that he won't be a strong pick regardless. Bradford has a monster arm and Gresham is a coverage nightmare.

3. Taylor Potts, Texas Tech
(ie, generic Tech QB)
In his final two years at Tech, Graham Harrell threw for over 5000 yards both seasons. Michael Crabtree is gone and that will be a huge, huge loss. In fact just four starters are returning on this offense, including two on the offensive line. In the two seasons before the Harrell/Crabtree duo started terrorizing defenses, Texas Tech threw for about 380 ypg. In something I'd only do for Texas Tech, I'm just going to assume that Potts can throw for at least 350 ypg, plug that in and get 4200 yards for the season. In fact, 350 is probably conservative for Leach's offense. Syyyssssstemmmm.

4. Robert Griffin, Baylor
You'll want to check out your fantasy scoring if he and Robinson are still on the board. How much rushing counts compared to passing, and possibly rush TDs vs pass TDs, could sway this one. To me, this comes down to Griffin being a sophomore (biggest season for improvement) and Baylor returning 8 offensive starters. Losing the #3WR (Thomas White) isn't a big deal, but Griffin may miss LT Jason Smith, who went second in the NFL Draft. Fortunately he is a fast, mobile QB (All-American Baylor track team, specializing in hurdles) so that will be somewhat negated. You will also note that Griffin does not turn the ball over. He only completed 56% of his passes because of drops, this guy is dead-accurate. If the receiving corps has improved at all, this should go up to 65%.

5. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State
OSU is returning seven offensive starters, but TE Brandon Pettigrew will be sorely missed. He was one of just two players to catch over 22 passes, the other being darkhorse Heisman candidate Dez Bryant. Keith Toston was kinda discovered in midseason, so OSU may run the ball a little more aggressively this year with that plus the losses to the receiving corps. Robinson's numbers could go either way, as he's more experienced and his two most talented offensive teammates are returning, which could offset some of the losses as well as the upgrade from Troy to Georgia in the nonconference schedule.

6. Todd Reesing, Kansas
Kansas returns seven offensive starters, but just two on the line and will be starting a pair of redshirt freshmen there. This will be a case of high experience at the skill positions versus low experience in protection, as even the tight end is new. I'm also concerned about the loss of three 90+ tacklers weakening the defense enough to cost this offense some time of possession, as the entire linebacker corps is being replaced and those were the defensive leaders in 2008 - a season in which KU already gave up 80 ypg more than in 2007. Reesing had 400 yards more in 2008 than 2007, perhaps due in part to Meier fully switching over from QB to WR, but at the cost of another 6 INT and 1 fewer TD. With the new line I don't see an improvement in offensive production - the question is will it even be as good?

7. Austen Arnaud, Iowa State
This is the official borderline of acceptable Big 12 QBs to draft. Iowa State is horrible, but like the Baylor situation, that doesn't rule out one QB to account for most of their offense and be a decent fantasy pick. ISU returns 9 offensive starters. Arnaud had over 3000 total yards last year and should be able to duplicate that. The Cyclones avoid both Texas and Oklahoma. I'm not really recommending Arnaud, so much as saying watch out for the train wrecks below...

8. Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M
Johnson plays for Texas A&M. TAMU is terrible. They're going to duplicate the failures of 2008, and offense is a big reason why (along with defense, God's hatred of Aggies, etc). 10 offensive starters return, but at some point that means more of the same. TAMU also faces Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State - three teams that will keep the ball away with their offenses and play solid defense.

9. Zac Lee, Nebraska
Is Zac Lee the #9 QB in the Big 12? I have no idea. I'd be shocked if he's in the top 6, and anything beyond that is largely speculation. Joe Ganz had a reasonably strong season here last year, and some of the starters return - notably, not the top two receivers or the #2 rusher.But hey, three starters on the line, including C and LT. Ehh....

10. Cody Hawkins, Colorado
Hawkins was terrible in 2008. He was decent but inconsistent in 2007. Contrary to what some magazines say, Josh Smith has left, so receivers #2-4 are all gone. Darrell Scott and Rodney Stewart return at RB, so maybe the spread option has some hope. Ehh...

11. Daniel Thomas / Whoever Starts at Kansas State
Bill Snyder has returned, and with him a nonconference schedule including two FCS schools. Brandon Banks was a 1000 yard receiver in 2008, so at least he has someone to throw to...

12. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
... as opposed to Gabbert, who will watch the Missouri offense flounder without Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, and Tommy Saunders. Chase Daniel's backup, Chase Patton, also graduated - this guy wasn't even getting clean-up time last year. On top of all that, OC Dave Christensen took the HC job at Wyoming. Missouri is going to complete the fall from a team who should have been in the BCS to mid-level ranked to complete fail, all in consecutive seasons. For what it's worth, Gabbert was actually a top 10 QB prospect, but the Tigers have just lost so much there can't not be a rebuilding year.

Nats Junk Randy St. Claire, Entire Rotation

So in the annals of "shit only I care about", the Nats fired pitching coach Randy St. Claire today. I'm not terribly surprised - the rotation has been god-awful, so someone was going to be the fall guy - I'd be lying if I said this makes any sense to me. I'm pretty sure Lookout Landing nailed it with their post - what the hell was he going to do with a shit sandwich. (I say "pretty sure" because for some reason I can't figure out if he's being sarcastic or not.)

Seriously, what the hell do you want your pitching coach to do when the GM basically decides in 2007 "screw it, we're going all replacement-level pitchers and it's open season for anyone to try out in Spring Training"? How does he react when the two most talented starters he's coached - John Patterson and Shawn Hill - can't throw their best pitch without getting injured? How about when both guys are just released at the end of Spring Training? How does he prevent injuries to a bullpen where most guys are getting 60+ appearances a season? How does the pitching coach have anything to do with a .321 BABIP and the outfielders resemble a Vaudeville act every other night? What about a 65% strand rate?

I mean, maybe St. Claire sucked. But canning him during this season from hell is a bit of a waste of time. There are far more problems with this team than their ability to throw a decent changeup. Rob Dibble apparently wasted no time ensuring that he ran the truck over St. Claire while he still had shit in the office. On the other hand, I think St. Claire might've quit anyway:

"The pitching isn't performing up to where it needs to be to win, and I think a lot of factors go into it, but I guess I'm easier to replace than 12 guys," [Randy St. Claire] said. "Easier to replace and cheaper to replace. But that's the game. When the team doesn't perform, they're bound to make changes."

At least everyone ended up pissed off. Bet it won't matter, though.

I Need to Start Writing About the Nats Again

Let's be honest; this place has been pretty dead lately. Writing about the inglorious trainwreck that is the Washington Nati(o)nals would at least pass the time. To some extent, I could just start writing about the Nats again on here and I don't think anyone would really notice. (Well, at least not until August. Or whenever James and I finally get around to unveiling the multiple ideas we have for blog - yes, we have IDEAS. We'll see if anything actually comes of them.) Still, I don't think that would really do them justice.

Here's what it comes down to - I'm a bit arrogant about my writing. I have the ability to be a pretty decent writer when I put my mind to it. Admittedly, that doesn't happen as much as I'd like it to, and lord knows that I've been prone to mail it in on some occasions. (Check the weekly ACC posts from last year for that, although I'm not going to lie - the profanity-riddled awesomeness of writing those posts was fun, even if the post's readability resembled that of a Fanhouse commentator) In a vacuum, this doesn't mean anything, but I feel the background's needed for a couple of reasons. The first reason is writing about the Nats gives me a relevant topic during the college football offseason. The second - and this is the big one - is that there are some terrible writers out there writing about the Nats.

I'd say that the two most prominent writers associated with the Nats' blogosphere (the wilted flower that it is) both have this problem. At this point, I'm convinced that one of them has a broken caps lock key; it's the only explanation for his random capitalization of words that either don't deserve capitalization or don't deserve emphasis. The other ...well, the other found these two magic formatting functions called bold and italic, but he has no idea how they work, so he just kind of uses them on their own. It's jarring, and quite frankly that site is unreadable (he also does the random ellipses thing, which I find more annoying than most - we're not all 15 anymore, guys. You're writing on the 'net, you don't have to make it sound like you're trailing off). Also, it looks like he's picked up random quotation marks, making him have something in common with Finger Quotin' Margo. Obviously those aren't the only two guys; there are more than a few out there, but since Needham folded up shop and is now freelancing for NBC Washington on the side and MissC went into her current role there's been a dearth of decent content. (NFA Brian is still out there doing his thing, which is quality but I'm not sure I'd classify it as following the Nats in the sense I mean.)

What this means to me is there's a void of quality writers covering the Nats. In theory it wouldn't be hard to ascend the ranks of Nats bloggers, although there's still the sticky issue of generating content and getting people here. (Obviously those are both issues I haven't figured out how to get around yet, although this site has directly and indirectly led to a couple of writing gigs for the staff here, so that's a plus.)

There's also a second, bigger issue: this team is terrible. God-awful. Announcers openly speculating about the #1 pick being on the big-league team in July terrible. 3 games up on the race for the #1 overall pick in 2010 already bad. 11.5 back of first place already (and 6 games back of 4th) and the only ML team under .350 bad. They're the worst-fielding team in MLB according to UZR and RZR. If you prefer traditional metrics, they have the worst ERA in the majors as well. The offense hasn't been bad, but half the power bats are in the lineup at the expense of the defense - Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Ronnie Belliard, and to a lesser extent Elijah Dukes and Willie Harris (CF versions only) have all been god-awful in the field. Functionally, there's not a lot you can do when you're handcuffed that badly on defense - and if the Nats didn't know that Dunn and Willingham were both butchers they did a worse job scouting than even I can imagine. I haven't even begun to bitch about the relievers, who make the defense seem palpable. No lead is safe puts it mildly.

So we'll see if I'm compelled to write about the Nats; my instinct says no. It's bad enough to see a terrible team blow game after game, but it's another matter entirely to have to write about it day after day (or week after week). I started writing this post a few days ago; since then, they haven't won a game. At this point, it's morbid curiosity to see if they can challenge the elusive 41-win mark. Maybe I'll follow it.

Rebuild or Reload?

Porn in college football statistics form has picked up its pre-season pace, and two interesting statistics were released this week: percent of yardage returning on offense and percent of tackles returning on defense.

Of course, this neglects any changes to the offensive line, in a way double-counts passing yardage, and neglects turnovers recovered by the defense. But nobody's claiming this is a great predictor of success. (at the top of one list, UCF returns 100% of their offensive yardage - from an offense that ranked 7th-worst in scoring last season) What it may be useful for is identifying teams who should be able to build upon what they accomplished last season - returning 11 starters means that units should be no weaker than it was a season ago... versus those who might have to play a bit of catch-up to get back to the same level - say, losing your starting QB and top two RBs.

Medians were around 71% returning yardage, 66% returning tackles.

Of our likely BCS contenders:
Alabama: 42% yardage, 85% tackles
Florida: 76% yardage, 99% tackles
Mississippi: 89% yardage, 66% tackles
Ohio State: 50% yardage, 58% tackles
Oklahoma: 80% yardage, 80% tackles
Oklahoma State: 89% yardage, 68% tackles
Penn State: 69% yardage, 56% tackles
Texas: 80% yardage, 76% tackles
USC: 55% yardage, 46% tackles

... I'm actually not going to talk about the ACC/Big East, since it looks like 8-4 might be good enough to land a BCS bid there. Oh, and lest I forget:
Baylor: 88% yardage, 81% tackles. Cream, bitches. Shitty December bowl.

Florida is a whole 8% above the next-highest school in returning tackles, and 14% ahead of the next-highest school that actually had a competent defense last season (Alabama). UF had a defense ranked around 4th last season... all 11 starters and most of the backups are back again in 2009. This should be a fearsome unit.

Oklahoma State and Mississippi are in the similar situations of being sleeper teams, arguably the third-best in their conferences - conferences that both got at-large bids last season and are likely to produce two BCS teams again. Both return essentially all of their offensive production, while both just barely return an above-average amount of tackles.

More interesting are the four teams that have definite concerns.

Alabama, while their defense should be on a similar level as last season, is 99th nationally in returning offense. I'm not sure that losing John Wilson is much of a loss, aside from his ability to manage a game - which I expect any Nick Saban quarterback to be able to do. (Watching 10 hours of game film a day does that. Free time's for pussies.) Losing Glen Coffee and Andre Smith will be tougher to deal with. Overall, I expect this offense to be about the same as last year.

Penn State will be hurting the most of the four. While Darryll Clark and Evan Royster return, PSU loses their entire receiving corps, including Derrick Williams who also scored 3 TDs on special teams. The defense is in shambles with the entire secondary gone as well as two NFL draft picks at DE. Penn State has an extremely easy nonconference schedule, they face Ohio State at home, and if you believe this team will be good - they also face Iowa at home. I wouldn't rule out a BCS season for those reasons. But this team will not be the same quality it was in 2008, and we saw what that got them in the Rose Bowl.

Our last two teams are Ohio State and USC, near-perennial BCS representatives who have dominated their conferences - USC in particular. This game was surprisingly lopsided last season, as USC showcased not only higher skill, but a complete dominance of the game planning and adjusting. Buckeye fans are licking their chops at the opportunity to see Terelle Pryor take on a USC defense that will be losing 9 starters. But what of their own team?

Ohio State loses experienced QB Todd Boeckman, although he is replaced by a more gifted athlete in Terrelle Pryor. While this will be mostly positive, I'm not sure that the Buckeyes won't miss his experience at some point, as it still remains true that every BCS champion has featured a Jr or Sr starting QB. More concerning are the losses of Beanie Wells, Maurice Wells, Hartline, Robiskie, and Rory Nicol. That's just the lost production. Boone, Rehring, and Person will be gone from the line. This offense should have one heck of a learning curve, but against many opponents Pryor's legs may be able to bail them out. Then there's the defense. The LB corps is depleted with the losses of Laurinaitis and Freeman. Thorpe winner Malcolm Jenkins and Nate Washington are gone from the secondary. Nader Abdallah leaves a big hole to fill up front. Let me be clear that, were it not for Terrelle Pryor, I'd expect this team to drop. With Pryor, who knows - OSU is helped by the fact that their closest Big Ten rival is in a similar predicament and they face USC after just one game with a completely new Trojan defense. But I'm highly skeptical of a perfect season.

Three seasons ago, USC lost Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and LenDale White but still won 11 games and would have faced _Buckeye_ for a national championship were it not for a bizarre loss to rival UCLA. That is the kind of quality recruiting that goes on at this program. For example, Aaron Corp should be an upgrade from Mark Sanchez at QB - mobile enough to evade and improvise even if his skills/their system won't have him producing much as far as rushing totals. Patrick Turner and Vidal Hazelton were never dominant receivers the way Mike Williams and Dwayne Jarrett were, and USC has plenty of depth that can step in and maintain that level. The entire RB corps (Joe McKnight baby!) and offensive line return. Suddenly, that 55% returning yardage sounds more like 95%. Defense is another story. In 2008, USC fielded a defense that was easily the program's best of the BCS era. Pete Carroll has got one hell of a pipeline going, but there is no reason to believe a second Rey Maualuga is waiting in the wings - not this season anyway. Six of the front seven that made this defense go have graduated or left, along with both starting corners. The lone bright side is the return of Taylor Mays, probably one of the top two safeties in the country. I don't know what the statistics will bear out, since the Washingtons may still not be good enough to qualify for the FCS tournament, but the defense is hurting for experience if not talent, and I do not expect it to be a top 10 unit. Their truest tests will come against teams fielding mobile QBs, where lane discipline and containment become more important.

Random CFB Musings (01) - Because September is Just Around the Corner

With Steele's College Football Preview set to hit stores June 9th (you may now Jizz. In. Your Pants.), it's officially time to start the four-month tailgate that is preseason blogging. It's the second-longest pre-kickoff tailgate nationally, bested only by the one that started in Baton Rouge last January.

First, a harrowing personal story: This past April, I moved from the beautiful suburbs of Denver into the heart of Washington, DC. Nothing against life in our nation's capital; contrarily, it's quite pleasant once you learn to block out the sirens that blare 24/7. (As a side note, last night I watched the local news for the first time since moving here. Top stories: murder, murder, gang warfare, sexual assault, child assault, murder, Disney to open new park in National Harbor, murder.) There's that, the sky-high cost of living, and the oppressive summer humidity, but the rest is gravy. Bonus for functional public transportation.

No, the problem is that I've moved into ACC country. The three places I'd lived before this were Plano, TX - the SWC/Big 12 including the last decade of the Nebraska glory years, then Oxford, OH - Ben Roethlisberger's years at Miami U and Ohio State's national championship team, then Boulder/Denver, CO - more Big 12, this time with a dash of Pac 10. The hidden gem was all the Mountain West coverage. Back to the present situation - the ACC is 2-9 in BCS Bowls, with their only win in the last nine trips being last season's *thrilling* Va Tech/Cincy Orange Bowl. That's right, they're 2-9 despite being matched up against the depleted Big East. I figure to get my share of Ohio State, USC, and the SEC... but the odds of seeing much Big 12 action or for that matter whatever Pac 10 team rises up just enough to pretend to challenge the Trojans' 35 consecutive conference titles (Quack On, Oregon) are surely slim. Instead, I'll be watching the Awkward Terrapins square off against the Cavalcade of Fail. Surely this warrants an fml. Keep this in mind if fall's postings take on a bitter tone.

NEWS!

The GMAC Mobile Bowl has decided to match the MAC champions against the #9 seed from the ACC. If that doesn't strike you as odd, what it means is that 75% of the teams in the conference would have to win 50% of their games. Last season, 10 ACC teams were bowl eligible because nobody managed to go better than 5-3 in conference, so as a result only one team was worse than 3-5. This means that teams like NC State can go 2-2 out of conference, or that Maryland can drop that game to Middle Tennessee State, and still be bowl eligible. Indeed, if Virginia hadn't been the only team in the conference to lose to Dook, there would have been 11 teams floundering around on national television after November (13 if we double-count the two in the conference championship game). By actually giving an automatic invite to the #9 seed, the Mobile Bowl is saying they expect the status quo - where all teams are equally bad - to remain firmly intact. fml.

Obama tore into Notre Dame football in a speech in Indianapolis. Previously, Obama has said that if he could change one thing in all of sports, it would be to give college football a playoff. He's done a March Madness bracket and created a fantasy football team with some high-profile writer. The guy's a real sports fan. (Not to be confused with a true fackin sparts fan.)

College basketball mega-phenom Greg Paulus is enrolling at Syracuse for grad school and plans to play quarterback. My only comment here is that he'll probably be more successful at a position where he doesn't have to play defense. Also it's tough to see Syracuse getting much worse, particularly those 121.5 passing yards per game which ranked 7th-worst nationally, so hey. The bottom six were the three service academies (option offense), Georgia Tech (option offense), UCF (.333 midmajor), and Wyoming (barely beat Tennessee).

Preseason polls are out. Lots of em. The consensus is Florida followed by Texas. (hey, it's what should have been the BCS Championship game!) Three Big 12 teams in the top 6, four SEC teams in the top 10. A 9-spot gap between USC and their closest conference contender, Ohio State and Penn State dwarfing the nine... dwarfs... in the Big Eleven. So the prognosis is a repeat of 2008?

On Suspensions, Expulsions, Dismissals, and Other Things That Involve Blowing It

A bit of background: in the last week, Tennessee's dismissed Demetrice Morley and Donald Langley from the team. Now, most people reading this haven't heard of either of them - truth be told, I hadn't heard of Langley until today. Morley, on the other hand, was a starter last year - his story is already summed up here. These things taken on their own don't mean a whole lot, but in concert I'm a bit concerned.

I don't know the entire story behind either dismissal, nor do I expect to. Are these moves good for the Tennessee football team? I'd imagine so; you want to foster a culture of the team being above the individual. Those who can't play by the rules get summarily taken care of. However, what happens to the now ex-player? They do have the freedom to transfer; if they transfer and pick up a scholarship somewhere else, then good for them. What concerns me is what happens if they don't transfer and can't afford to stay in school otherwise (let's be honest: almost none of these guys could pick up academic scholarships, and a fair amount of them can't foot the bill to attend school without the scholarship). In essence, a scholarship cut amounts to "good luck in life", and that's not a message I want to send. This is the price of having a burgeoning college football factory.

I'd also say this is the difference between Fulmer and Kiffin. With Fulmer, there was always the element of humanity. Fulmer was committed to fielding and developing the best football team he could, but it would be hard for someone to say that he didn't care about either his current or former players. Fulmer pretty clearly put his heart into coaching the kids to be the best players and people they could be (with a few exceptions - hi, Kelley Washington! How's that Future working out for you?). His problem was never the off-field component; the unwinding of Fulmer could probably be tied pretty directly to the fortunes of David Cutcliffe and the stagnation of the Tennessee offense in his absence. Fulmer's offensive philosophies could be summed up with "run, run, screen, punt", and he needed a guiding influence away from that.

Because of those on-field issues, Kiffin and the coaching crew were brought in to develop the best football program they could. What we don't know at this point is if they'll develop the best football team at the expense of developing the best people. They've already developed a pretty killer instinct with respect to getting talent in the door - and getting talent out the door. Of course, it's yet to be seen if the results show up on the field, but the talk is certainly there.

I'd be lying if I said I was completely comfortable with the shift; I'd love to have a relevant football team again, but the systematic purging of the football machine just feels a bit too impersonal. This churn makes sense at the professional level, but in the college ranks I don't know what to make of it yet. I'm reminded of the transition that Charlie Weis had to go through (god, I hate bringing him into this, but I need him here) when he went to Notre Dame: you can't yell at freshmen like you can rookies. I'm thinking the same rules apply here: you can't churn sophomores like you can two-year players. If you want to pull them off the team go for it, but be careful before leaving them to twist entirely in the breeze.

Rick Reilly and the Blog Counterpunch

I hate opening a post with a confession, but hey - can't win 'en all - so here you go: I listen to the BS Report at work. I read Bill Simmons too, while we're at it. Is he a writing influence? Probably, but that's largely immaterial right now. (Besides, my writing was - well, is - more influenced by the old-school TWoP than Simmons, and that's definitely not related. Those of you who figured that I kind of made it all up as I go can now be solidly refuted, ha!) His writing's entertaining, but I'd stop short of calling it insightful; aside from the overlap on baseball, we follow different sports for the most part. It's more mental popcorn to me.

Anyway, now that I've gotten totally off-track, I was listening to the Simmons / Rick Reilly podcast at work today, and Reilly hit on something that bugged me: he contended that some blogs function to get traffic primarily by slamming other (read: mainstream) stories. Furthermore, he seemed to think that people enjoy writing that basically says "zomg this guy is soooooo wrong he sucks". I'm going to have to take issue with that - which is admittedly ironic on my end, but again, can't win 'en all.

First off, I'm willing to admit that there are some people out there who probably do take glee from bringing people down for its own accord. I would contend those people need to be kept away from keyboards. They do the rest of us a grave disservice, and it grates on me that I could be lumped in with them.

As for the rest of us, we're smarter than that. When I take issue with an article or a statement, I take issue with the idea or assumption behind the article. For example (I'm going to the FJM well here, but bear with me), an article on David Eckstein being the piece that put the St. Louis Cardinals over the top misses a key point - namely, Albert Pujols is much much much better than Eckstein could ever hope to be. Writing that article isn't a bad story (I think the overloooking of just how good he is serves as one of the most interesting continual storylines in baseball), but it is boring. Anyone can figure that out. But: this isn't to say you can't write an article on how good Eckstein is. Instead of focusing on how he's short and can run (note: I'm paraphrasing here), put it in numbers. Show me he's made 7 plays outside of his zone and talk about that time you saw him range 40 feet to his left to pick up a ball that was going over the second base bag. I'm okay with that.

I know advanced / new stats can be difficult to grasp if you haven't seen them before; still, most writers should be smart and connected enough to be able to send an email to the guys developing the stat asking for a quick explanation. When the stat-creater sends you back a two-paragraph explanation, distill it down and put it in your article. It's okay to make people smarter. It's okay to think. I know that's harsh, and I know that's not the case, but sometimes it's tough to tell. That's what drives us - well, me, since I can't speak for everyone - insane. (That and the "I'm going to be contrary to this obvious idea because I'm going to be, nyah nyah" article, which ...again, probably not how it's done but that's how it reads.)

Anyway, I've gotten totally off-track. Again. Getting back to the point: part of the function of blogs - part of the reason I even have this damn thing - is because I want to express my opinion. That means I have an impetus and a need to generate original content. Now, I'd contend that my original content could be a discussion on someone else's original content and that's within my realm. I liken this to a writer telling a coach, player, or official that their contention was incorrect and here's why; I retain the right to have the same freedom for myself. The problem is that it's not just me, it's one million people. Now that one voice has become a cacophony. It's on me to make my voice unique among the crowd.

That means it's on me to generate original content and get my voice out there. It's not on anyone else, and if I have issue with someone else's statement then it's on me to explain what my problem is and why. If I do a bad job explaining my position, then again - it's on me. If I can't get traffic to my site by expressing original content then I'd join Twitter then I'm not doing my job. Those that think otherwise are fools.

On the plus side, it's not like he'll ever read this. So I've got that going for me.

This Post Is Terribly Time-Inappropriate

The time for bitching about the excitement - or flagrant lack thereof - of the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament was, oh, Monday. I missed the boat, so I'll keep it short. I'm still annoyed by it, though. Admittedly, the NCAA selection committee can't do anything once the teams are all selected, so it's not really their fault; sure, maybe Utah State would've beaten a non-Marquette 6 seed, but it's not something the selection committee really needs to be concerned with at the outset. CBS probably should've tried to schedule more interesting games in batches, but again, they didn't necessarily know. (There was no excuse for only having one game on early on Saturday when they had a three-game batch in the next time slot, though.)

It isn't anyone else's fault but the teams involved that the favorites mostly made it through. I have my suspicions as to why this is the case, but I'll save that for a later post (here's a hint: look back at our Top 25 rankings and the complete contempt we had for teams once we got below 16 or so). Regardless of how we got here, now we're staring at a couple of days where we're going to see a lot of 1, 2, and 3 seeds. Joy.

The Price Tag of Prior Actions

I feel like I should apologize for sullying the mass of prior posts that were nothing but college basketball with a post that's unequivocally baseball-related. On the other hand, this is the first activity here in ages, so at least it's some kind of content (even if half the people that read this blog just closed it as soon as I uttered the b-word). It's been way too quiet here; I'd like to do something about it, but quite honestly spring practice isn't worth writing about in most cases, and even though Lane Kiffin has done a fantastic job raising hell, everyone else is already kind of on top of that and I'm already kind of over that.

Anyway. The Nats were bad enough last year to be gifted with the first overall pick in the draft this year, and as it happens, there's also a pretty quality pitching prospect out there named Stephen Strasburg. He's a college kid with the kind of stuff that not only makes scouts drool, it makes them leave wet spots on their bedsheets at night. It helps that his frame is "projectable", which is supposed to mean he'll fill out in a manner that will support his further development. I just think it means the scouts think he has a nice ass. Either way, he's a big deal, the biggest of this draft class.

And then, things got funny. Peter Gammons broke the story first that Strasburg's agent Scott Boras - did I mention he already has an agent? Because he does - is asking for 6 years, $50 million. (I apologize that the link there isn't to the Gammons article; it's behind a paywall but it's there to reflect what I'm saying. If you want to read a summary of the news in random italics and bold, that site will be heaven to you.) If that seems unruly and out of control, it is; most guys get no more than 20% of that, if even that. David Price, the 1st overall pick in 2007, only pulled in $8.8 million, which is kind of Tom Boswell's point. As for me, I'm wondering what the difference is if there's no guarantee the money will be spent.

Now, I've been a fan of the erstwhile Expos for going on 15 years, so it's not like I'm unfamiliar with the franchise not willing to spend money. I've gone through that on more than a few occasions, and the only difference this time around is that it's a new owner (the 3rd - technically 4th, if you want to count MLB - that I've seen so far) not willing to spend cash. This time though, it's less being unwilling to spend money and more continuing a trend.

Since the Lerners took over, they've shown a continual unwillingness to spend. Those of you that are smart can figure out that this may devolve into an OMG TEH LERNERS ARE TEH CHEEP rant, but since I haven't had one of those in a while, hear me out. 2007 was home to the Replacement Pitcher Parade (which actually wasn't a bad idea, but that's neither here nor there for the purposes of this conversation); 2008 was the parade minus the NRIs that drove the parade. The one free agent signing you've heard of since they moved was Adam Dunn this offseason; Alfonso Soriano was a trade, and if you knew they signed Daniel Cabrera, you're either already a fan or you're lying. They've signed more than that, but those were all minor signings.

Numerous players have gone through arbitration for matters that would normally be trivial. I can immediately recall taking Felipe Lopez to arbitration over $300K (not a big deal in baseball terms); they took Shawn Hill to arbitration this year, then when he won, they cut him. They've been unwilling to commit to signing Ryan Zimmerman to a long-term deal. There are more than a few examples beyond those, but they'll do for now. Sure, they were involved in the Teixiera deal, but I was always of the suspicion that they were involved in the negotiations precisely so they could say they were willing to spend money without willing to commit to actually spending the money. They were unwilling to sign Aaron Crow out of the draft this past year - admittedly his agent may have been a bit shady, but to put this season's draft in perspective, Crow might be the 2nd best pitcher in the draft.

When the stadium finished construction in 2008, the Lerners refused to pay for some additions (change orders) to the construction above and beyond the original construction. They were late paying their own employees at a couple of points during the season. Now, I offer up that information with a realization they've had issues getting income, too. Ticket sales are abysmal considering the newness of the stadium. The TV ratings are terrible (and they don't own their network, instead leasing time from Peter Angelos' network MASN), and saying the radio ratings are terrible implies enough people listen to the radio to even get a rating. I think I might've been 5% of the listening audience.

I paint this picture to give you a feel for what's there. Given that backdrop, I can't see a reason not to draft Strasburg that has anything to do with baseball. I can't believe that the Nats would figure out a way to invest the money they'd save on a better player - because I have no reason to believe they know how to do that. A cheaper signing would be just that - a cheaper signing. Given what I said above, there's no rational way you can spin drafting Crow instead of Strasburg, so you're stuck drafting a hitter. That's not a problem necessarily, but again, if you're going to draft someone, you might want to sign him.

The one thing I'm not talking about at this point is flameout potential. Pitchers, as a general rule, have a higher percentage of flameout compared to hitters. Factoring that in, in most cases you'd want to minimize risk if skill levels are equal, meaning you'd draft the equally skilled hitter. That's not the case in this draft; there is no comparable hitter to Strasburg. That turns the equation into how much you're willing to pay to take on a higher ceiling with an increased risk. With a franchise who - for lack of better wording - you trust, you may be okay with that risk reduction. I think it's clear at this point where I stand on that.

There's a reason not to draft Strasburg - it's pretty much that previous paragraph. However, the Nats have pretty much hamstrung themselves on this particular choice. If they opt not to draft Strasburg because they're worried about his potential for flameout or injury or one of 1,200 other reasons that have to do with baseball, it'll be tough for everyone not to hear "we didn't want to shell out the cash." When you've established a culture of not willing to go the extra dollar, that's going to be the conclusion that everyone comes to when you don't go the extra dollar.

The BCS from 1 to 94

If you were reading our little blog back in June 2008, you know the drill. Every January, we're asked to pretend that we're way more interested in watching USC and Texas beat a couple Big Ten schools than directly compete for those coveted "we got shafted the most" bragging rights, that we're okay with the nation's top unbeaten being regarded as "probably not really the best team, nevermind that they fared slightly better against a common opponent and actually beat the team who gave #3 their lone loss," or that we think the champion of the Atlantic Short Bus Conference totally deserves their automatic spot, but not a 12-0 Boise team who, by the way, beat a team ranked higher than anybody in the ASBC. We take the teams who compete in this postseason variety show of sorts, and tell you definitively and comprehensively who's better than who.

For example it’s probably fair to say that 2005 USC could’ve beaten a few of the other national champions, and it’s probably fair to say 2007 LSU wasn’t the 10th or 11th-best BCS team ever. Heck, for that matter, how good were 2000 Miami, 2004 Auburn, 2008 Texas, and all the other teams that had a shot at the title but got denied due to what amounts to general stupidity? And who was better, 2006 Boise State or 2006 Oklahoma? …oh, right.

Now, because we apparently have nothing better to do with our time, we were faced with only one option: rank ‘em all. That’s right, we’re ranking all the BCS teams. Not all the champions, not all the teams who played in the championship game, not the most screwed teams, not the worst teams to set foot in a BCS stadium, all of them – from 2001 Miami to 2004 Pittsburgh. Because we can’t just do a straight ranking, we’re writing about the teams, too. Grab a snack, a 40, or both – this may take a while to read. All told, I think it’s coming in around 11,000 to 12,000 words.

1. 2001 Miami (12-0, 8-0, Big East Champions, National Champions)
We tend to forget how good this team was, and that’s saying something. They only allowed 117 points over the entire season; in case that sounds like a lot, Miami scored 8 TDs on defense, so they made up for about half the points they allowed. One game was decided by fewer than 10 points (a 26-24 road win over VA Tech), little else was even interesting, especially not the national championship game. In beating #14 Syracuse and #12 Washington 59-0 and 65-7 in consecutive weeks, the team set a record for margin of victory over consecutive ranked opponents. The amount of talent the ’01 Canes had was staggering; a total of 16 players were drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, with 28 being drafted in total. Their depth was outstanding: Jerome from Southeast Clinton Portis was backed up by Willis McGahee’s future broken ankle and Frank Gore, Jeremy Shockey by Kellen “Future Fucking Soldier” Winslow Jr, Willis Reed by Sean Taylor (…what? We’re not making jokes about the dead, not where I live). The combination of talent and dedication is the reason why it didn’t matter who the other team was in the 2001 BCS title game; they were going to get wrecked anyway. We’d be floored if we see a team this dominant in the next 20 years.

2. 2005 Texas (13-0, 9-0, Big 12 Champions, National Champions)
The difference between 2005 Texas and 2004 USC is something less than razor-thin; we were debating these teams for about half an hour to 45 minutes, and we probably could’ve kept on going. This ranking is as much homage to Young as it is to the entire team (edit: um, duh. We do a great job of nailing down the details here), who managed to overcome both pre-anointed USC and Mack Brown in the same game. Oh, and they wrecked Oklahoma for the first time in five years this season, too (which is when everyone kind of went “uh-oh, Vince might’ve really figured it out”). His broken-play ability may be the best we’ll see in 15-20 years, and I don’t think that’s really an exaggeration. Basically, you take a defense that’s great for single season standards (#4 scoring prior to facing USC) and pretty strong for any BCS team, throw in lots of speed at WR and RB, one of the top two offensive lines for the season… then throw in a once-in-a-generation athlete at QB, and this is what you get. We think this version of Vince Young was the best college player over the past 10 years.

3. 2004 USC (12-0, 8-0, Pac-10 Champions, National Champions)
We remember this team for a couple of reasons: 1) completely destroying the “Game of the Century” idea that everyone had built up between them and Oklahoma; 2) effectively killing the debate over whether or not Auburn should’ve been included in the title game. Sure, Auburn didn’t do themselves any favors, but everyone kind of just assumed USC would’ve wrecked them 42-21 or some such. USC had one of the staunchest defenses of the BCS era that really excelled at dominating your line and pressuring your backfield (Matt Leinart joke goes here [x]), and when Norm Chow had a month to prepare the attack for the holes specific to your defense (that joke could go here too), that was pretty much it. The offense had some early season issues adjusting to life without Mike Williams, but those were more than solved by midseason. Incidentally, this team may also be known for triggering Oklahoma’s BCS issues over the last five seasons, for which we can only say: thanks.

4. 2000 Miami (11-1, 8-0, Big East Champions)
Remember how dominant that 2001 Miami team was? This was the prototype of that team – about as talented, just a little bit less experienced. Their only loss was a 5-point setback early in the season to a very good Washington team played on the other side of the country, which was half indicative of how well Washington played and half of how much Dorsey choked in his first big road game (supposedly tripping on his offensive linemen’s feet twice, among other gaffes). They also beat eventual 2000 runner-up Florida State and were lucky enough with the scheduling to get to completely obliterate both Florida teams over the course of the season, wrecking Florida in the Sugar Bowl. Oh, and they also gave Virginia Tech their only loss of the year in a game that surprisingly wasn’t even close. The question is: was this team better than an Oklahoma team who went undefeated and got the only BCS title hardware in Norman? The answer, as it turns out, is probably. Not even counting that the title game would’ve been played in the Orange Bowl, there’s also the whole Miami actually has an offense thing (supposedly Florida State did, but ….yeah. They’re still paying back the karma for that abortion) and then you’ve got to consider that by January they were basically 2001 Miami.

5. 2004 Auburn (13-0, 9-0, SEC Champions)
Quick: what do you do without a playoff and with three undefeated teams? The answer, apparently, is to leave the SEC champion out, for reasons which basically begin and end with “Oklahoma was ranked higher to begin with”. Not that Auburn would’ve done a whole lot better than Oklahoma against that particular USC squad, but it might not have been a total blowout, as the Tigers could at least play D (#1 points allowed defense in 2004, and a Thorpe winner at CB). Their tandem of running backs (Ronnie Brown, “Cadillac” Williams) have had more NFL success than many predicted, as has Jason Campbell, perhaps evidence that their offense was a bit underrated. Their game against VA Tech was a bit lackluster, but with the supposed #1 and #2 teams playing in a couple of days and rolling up a 16-0 lead on the Hokies, can you blame them?

6. 2005 USC (12-1, 8-0, Pac-10 Champions)
Undoubtedly the best team to play in the BCS before the game, the “Paper Champions of the BCS” Trojans really did have a fantastic team in 2005. Was the title hype a bit …well, premature? Yes, but arguably this is a team that was good enough to win the title in almost every other BCS season – and they were better at almost everything during the Rose Bowl. When you consider the number of broken plays they forced Texas into, it’s staggering ….oh, wait, isn’t that exactly what Young wanted? Oops. Still, if this team’s a year later they completely wreck everyone in 2006.

7. 2002 Ohio State (12-0, 8-0, Big 10 Champions, National Champions)
This team may be the blandest in the top 10, but damned if they weren’t effective. This team reminds us a lot of ’05 Texas in how they beat a predestined team (this time it was ’02 Miami), but unlike Texas, Ohio State relied more on flat execution than game-breaking ability. Their offense wasn’t spectacular, but it was effective enough; come to think of it, that’s a good way to describe Jim Tressel’s tenure there. (That and not losing to Michigan, JOHN.) Still, this was a team predicated on defense, with several plus athletes; ten starters on this defense were drafted into the NFL.

8. 2002 Miami (12-1, 8-0, Big East Champions)
Yeah, this team was excellent, and only a disputed pass interference call away from being back-to-back champions. While a number of key starters were missing from the 2001 wrecking ball (Portis, Shockey, Buchanon, Reed, McKinnie), the team was still loaded with talent at every position, but at times seemed less driven than the season before – such as allowing Virginia Tech (this was post-Michael Vick) to score 45 points in the season finale, or eking out a 1-point win over Florida State. Not that it’s their fault, but Miami probably never recovered from the double whammy of losing Butch Davis on the sidelines and Ed Reed on the field. Still, the team was mostly dominant during the regular season – more so than the bulk of teams on this list.

9. 2008 Florida (13-1, 8-1, SEC Champions, National Champions)
Take one of the most successful offensive systems of its time, plug in the only sophomore ever to win a Heisman, team him up with the country’s fastest player, make a major upgrade over the previous season in defense, and what do you get? A 11-1 start featuring 11 blowouts and a 1-point loss, followed by a pair of two-score wins over top ten teams. It kinda got lost in a season when Big 12 quarterbacks and the USC defense were putting up unbelievable stats, but in the end the SEC king proved themselves tops yet again. You might have caught Tim Tebow wearing “John 3:16” in his facepaint during the game, but we’re not sure God would pull for a team starting Ronnie “AK” Wilson.

10. 1999 Florida State (12-0, 8-0, ACC Champions, National Champions)
As we get deeper into the rankings, it’s really staggering how much the ACC fell off after 2001, with three top-25 teams and the rest floating at 59 and below. However, this was the best of the FSU incarnations, with a healthy Chris Weinke and Peter Warrick back when he had talent. Travis Minor was a lot better in college, too, and they did an effective job stopping the proto-Vince Young (Michael Vick) in the title game, although arguably there wasn’t a whole lot else on that Virginia Tech team. This was also the last year Florida State beat both of their Florida-based rivals in the same season.

11. 2003 LSU (12-1, 8-1, SEC Champions, Disputed National Champions)
As long as we’re talking defensive talent, it’s worth talking about this incarnation of the Bayou Bengals, who did a good job of wrecking almost everyone in their path (losing only to Florida). Their 151 points allowed over the season was the 7th best among all BCS teams [ranking as of June 08]; this is doubly impressive when you remember that Matt Mauck (who?) was their starting QB. They did have a legitimate trio of running backs led by Justin Vincent who (for a season) looked like he was on the path to stardom. Bonus points: this team turned Nick Saban into a coaching hitman, which is really fun for the whole family.

12. 2000 Oklahoma (12-0, 8-0, Big 12 Champions, National Champions)
Yeah, we’re underrating this team – but here’s the problem: Josh Heupel was the starting QB. We do remember the offense being explosive, but we also remember that god-awful championship game, even though we have the therapy sessions to try and prove otherwise. 36 rushes + 62 yards + Heupel = title? Apparently. One of us really should go find the play-by-play of that game; for all ESPN’s talk of it being a great defensive struggle, we just remember missed open receivers and bad blocking. But the defense did shut Florida State out, and they did win a title. So they got that going for them.

13. 1998 Tennessee (12-0, 8-0, SEC Champions, National Champions)
The “huh? Oh, yeah” of BCS title winners, the Vols were written off for dead after Peyton Manning (5 losses in his college career – 4 to Florida, 1 to Memphis (????)), but Tee Martin kept on winning. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but also-rans UCLA, Ohio State, and Kansas State really couldn’t say that. Clint Stoerner can probably still get all the free beer he wants in Knoxville; sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

14. 2008 Texas (12-1, 7-1)
Not the highest-scoring nor the most athletic, Texas nonetheless featured one of the most efficient offenses of the BCS era, led by all-time college completion % leader Colt McCoy. This was a timing offense with the added bonus of a mobile qb, consistent line, and a frightening pair of receivers. Unfortunately the defense consisted of a sack-hungry front four and maybe one or two corners, and that was pretty much it. A dropped interception and a blown coverage by the safeties on consecutive plays spoiled their chances to play for the championship.

15. 2008 USC (12-1, 8-1, Pac 10 Champions)
This USC defense allowed a flat 9 ppg, tops in the BCS era. The front seven was in fact every bit as good as the vaunted 01 Miami defense, led by Rey Maualuga who frankly looks terrifying on camera. We doubt the secondary was as talented as Miami’s interception factory, but when the QB doesn’t have time to throw who cares? Offensively the unit lacked in leadership; questions about the line and receivers appeared to be answered early on, nobody really disputes that their HBs were fantastic, but stumbles along the way led to a puzzling loss. USC was unfortunate enough to play in the same conference as arguably the worst two BCS-conference teams ever, which simultaneously padded their stats and killed their SOS – guess which matters in the formulas? This was also the year it got to the point where an AP sportswriter jokingly suggested that Pete Carroll start intentionally missing some top CA recruits, as the rest of the Pac 10 saw a noticeable drop in talent level while the Trojans seemingly went 5-deep at every position. So pretty much the entire starting 22 could all randomly drop out, and USC would still be able to field a team capable of winning the Rose Bowl. We also think this is the team who'll be remembered for starting USC Lovefest Part II (of our lifetimes anyway), as the media is now over prematurely proclaiming their 05 counterparts as on-par with a low-level NFL team. Stay tuned.

16. 2003 USC (12-1, 8-1, Pac-10 Champions, Disputed National Champions)
If we mentioned LSU, we had to talk about USC, right? This was the beginning of the original USC Lovefest, which culminated in them ending up 1st in both polls only to get screwed for Oklahoma – after they lost in the Big 12 title game in blowoutastic fashion. Not a good season all-around for the BCS, as a convincing victory in the Rose Bowl allowed USC to pick up the only split national championship in its 11-year existence.

17. 2006 Florida (12-1, 8-1, SEC Champions, National Champions)
This was probably one of the sweetest wins (non-Notre Dame affiliated edition) in BCS history. Unlike 2002 Ohio State or 2005 Texas, who played a close game over a heavily favored opponent before coming out on top, Florida basically spotted Ohio State a 7-point lead before kicking the Buckeyes’ teeth in to the tune of 41-7 in the last 59:45. This served as a coming-out party for Urban Meyer, Tim Tebow, and Percy Harvin, who still scares the crap out of me and will continue to for years. Bonus points: this win shut Michigan fans up about a rematch, although USC kind of helped out there too.

18. 1998 Ohio State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten co-Champions)
This was one of the more athletically frightening defenses Ohio State has fielded in the BCS era and arguably the most talented team Jim Tressel has ever had. Oh but wait, that’s the problem – this was a John Cooper-coached team, not Tressel’s, which pretty much explains a late season defeat at the hands of Michigan State as the Buckeyes looked ahead to Michigan (you see, back then it was Cooper choking to Michigan every season, and soon-to-be Llllloyd Carr was handing out the L’s rather than taking them). This was the team that modernized OSU’s offense, with outstanding balance between the run (Joe Montgomery, Michael Wiley) and pass (Joe Germaine, David “Steroids” Boston) as they showed the ability to play smash-mouth I-formation ball typical of the Big Ten or go to 4 receiver sets with equal success as they had surprising depth at WR for a college team. Really, if this team had been coached by Tressel, they may have been the first BCS champions and sitting in our top ten, because that’s certainly where their talent level is.

19. 2008 Utah (13-0, 8-0, Mountain West Champions)
This was the year following H’a’w’a’i’i’s blowout loss in the Sugar Bowl, and everyone expected more of the same from this bunch. But the Utes clearly showed – midmajors only suck when they come from off the mainland; if they’re from Idaho or Utah, you’d better watch out. Leading Alabama 21-0 after just 13 minutes of play, Brian Johnson’s offense ground out the rest of the game en route to a perfect season. How impressive was Utah to the audience? They captured a quarter of the AP’s #1 votes.

20. 1998 Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten co-Champions)
In 1998, if Ohio State was the new face of the Big Ten, Wisconsin represented the old school. (Too bad they never faced each other – you’re awesome, Jim Delany!) They played suffocating defense (#1 scoring in their season with 143 points allowed, holding 7 of 12 opponents to 7 or less) and pounding on your defense with Ron Dayne, arguably the top RB of the BCS era. By the time he was done playing for the Badgers, Dayne was the NCAA career rushing yards leader, tied the Rose Bowl record with four rushing TDs, and was one yard shy of the Rose Bowl rushing yards record basically because Barry Alvarez didn’t watch the stats and pulled his star when the offense went out one last time to run out the clock. The Badgers could win a low-scoring grind with Penn State then go and outscore UCLA in a shootout (although Jamar Fletcher’s late-game pick six was ultimately the difference), so despite the “three yards and a cloud of dust” approach to offense, the team was at least reasonably versatile.

21. 1999 Virginia Tech (11-1, 8-0, Big East Champions)
In running through the season 11-0, Virginia Tech held the nation’s #1 defense (116 points allowed pre-Sugar Bowl) and unquestionably the most electrifying player, Michael Vick. Few teams even managed to keep the scores respectable, although some of that can be attributed to the fact that nobody on their schedule other than FSU won more than 8 regular season games. Vick did get to prove his toughness leading a two-minute drill drive for a game winning FG at West Virginia. But when they played a team who could match them in talent, the inexperience showed. Mistakes in the first quarter gave Florida State a margin for error, and mistakes in the fourth quarter turned a 1-point lead into a 17-point loss. (And before anyone starts going on and on about the Big East being bad, this was back when they had everyone, so: don’t try.)

22. 2000 Florida State (11-2, 8-0, ACC Champions)
This was the season where Chris Weinke was good enough to win the Heisman before basically getting wrecked by Oklahoma. It’s almost entirely because of this that I loathe this team with the burning passion of a thousand suns, but Weinke was pretty good for a 28-year-old. Jamal Reynolds chipped in with the Lombardi Award – oh, and he had 12 sacks, too. Florida State really wrecked everyone that season, except for Miami (see above) and Oklahoma (see above). Their 26-21 win over Georgia Tech early in the year was puzzling, but other than that the scores were almost 2001 Florida-esque in their lopsidedness, up to and including a 30-7 win over SEC Champion Florida; that’s fitting.

23. 1999 Nebraska (12-1, 8-1, Big 12 Champions)
Eric Crouch takes some retroactive heat for the beating that was put on his school by Miami to close the 2001 season, but don’t let that overshadow his place as one of the great option QBs of the modern era and perhaps the last great power-option QB. The defense was strong if not spectacular, but really only Texas was able to stop the Husker attack – and in a rematch conference title game, the Blackshirts simply outperformed their Longhorn defensive counterparts. This of course set the stage for the Fiesta Bowl, a game James has already detailed the significance of, and a true display of the raw strength and power this team brought to the table.

24. 2002 USC (11-2, 7-1)
This season was an oddity for USC – they actually played Kansas State in a non-conference game! I have no idea how that happened; someone must’ve drugged Bill Snyder into thinking USC was San Diego St. or something. As a matter of fact, USC’s entire schedule was insane. Counting the Orange Bowl, they faced 12 winning teams and 11 bowl teams (although just a 3-8 bowl record, counting Iowa’s loss to USC). Even if you want to think of the 02 Pac 10 as comparable to the 07 Big 10 – mediocre across the board – they did also face a 9-win SEC team, 9-win and 11-win Big 12 teams, and an 11-win Big 10 team, going 3-1 in those games. They even faced a 10-win Notre Dame team! Okay, we’re just kidding about being able to count that. Still, that probably did keep the Irish out of a BCS bowl, so the country owes the Carson Palmer/Troy Polomalu-led squad a debt of gratitude for preventing yet another ND BCS debacle.

25. 2006 LSU (11-2, 6-2)
Shockingly, this team was actually more talented than their ’07 counterparts. The only difference is that ’07 was worse across the board, but this team was a PI call away from playing for the SEC title – and arguably playing for the national title. Of course, they would’ve still lost to Florida in the regular season and there’s no guarantee they beat Florida the second time around. On the plus side, had LSU won that second game against Florida we might’ve seen Ohio State-Michigan again… would we really want that?

26. 2006 Ohio State (12-1, 8-0, Big 10 Champions)
Excellent, stout defense, and Troy Smith was a pseudo-Vince Young (which is why I think he got the Heisman – the voters felt bad for whiffing in ’05)… but their problem was perimeter speed. Not a problem in the Big 10, but as Florida showed in the championship game, you might want to be able to get to the corner. Also: when Tim Tebow comes in the game, it’s a RUN! Jesus. Did anyone watch game tape?
Fun fact: Ohio State is now 0-2 in BCS Championship games (once they actually designated a separate game for that). Fun fact #2: Ted Ginn’s ankle was sprained by his own teammates’ celebration after his return TD. Fun Fact #3: Ohio owes $2.4MM in property taxes to the state of Florida after the 2007 calendar year.

27. 2001 Florida (10-2, 6-2)
This offense was the height of the Spurrier-led “Fun-N-Gun” attack (alternatively, this was the year when they ran the score up the most: you make the call), and they did a great job of wrecking most teams in their path. When you play in the SEC and only get held under 30 twice, that’s just absurd. Unfortunately one such game was an ugly 3-point loss to Auburn, and the Gators lost on a failed two-point conversion against a very strong Tennessee team in which UF played without their starting RB, Earnest Graham. They would’ve ranked higher than this*, but the fact they were led by a QB whose nickname was “Sexy Rexy” knocks them down 10 spots.
*Note to Oregon fans: we’re not saying they should’ve played in the title game**, two losses negates that. We’re just saying they were probably the second-best team in the country that year. Have a nice day!
** Of course, since UF wasn’t in the championship game, we got to see them wreck a completely overmatched Maryland team. The Dragon came off the bench to lead 6 straight TD drives, and by TD drives I mean 65 yard bombs on the first play. They’d be longer, but Maryland’s punter struggled to kick the ball much past midfield, and even then, Rexy ran back to the end zone before unleashing it just in case there were any questions. How does he get benched for missing curfew anyway? Everybody knows curfew and short passes are for pussies.

28. 2008 Oklahoma (12-2, 8-1)
By this point in time, the other 49 states had clearly hopped on the anti-Sooner bandwagon, and we were all awaiting yet another big loss from Big Dud Bob. For the Sooners to lose by just 10 to our #9 team is plenty respectable. Ultimately the offensive failure was everything we expected, but the defense played with pride. We remember that this group set all-time scoring marks going into the title game, and consider the barrage they almost surely would have put on anyone outside the top third of this list.

29. 2004 Oklahoma (11-1, 9-0, Big 12 Champions)
If you’re wondering “how badly does whiffing a title game do for your overall BCS ranking?”, here’s your answer: a lot. An excellent regular season (coupled with the Jason White bandwagon going into overdrive – really, he wasn’t that good) goes for naught when it looks like you didn’t prepare for the title game. You could make an argument that 2003 was really the turning point for Oklahoma in the BCS (2-0 before then, 0-5 after), but we figured it was an aberration – up until their loss to Boise State. Oops. Speaking of bandwagons, does anyone know if they were able to rescue all the survivors from the Jason White bandwagon careening off a cliff?

30. 1998 Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champions)
This was the first of three straight years we’d see FSU in the championship game, and like the 3rd year it was controversial and they stunk up the field. Sure, it’s not their fault their 26-year-old QB slipped on the ice in a parking lot. (No really, that happened to somebody that bowl season but I can’t say 100% that it was Weinke… it might have been one of OSU’s receivers. But it’s funnier if we just assume it was the FSU QB whose absence from the Fiesta Bowl absolutely doomed his team’s offense, so for the purposes of this blog Chris Weinke slipped on a patch of ice outside the local supermarket.) How is a 26-year old playing on his sophomore year of eligibility in college? Does that mean he played high school ball at age 24? What a jerk… yeah, I’m sure it feels great to kick some kid’s ass in sports because you’re 8 years older than him. Come to think of it, that’s what I was doing when I was 17, and it does feel good thankyouverymuch. (Note: Brandon Coutu would use the Weinke path to success at Georgia less than 10 years later, which was fitting, because Coutu was also 26 back in 1998.)

31. 2007 LSU (12-2, 7-2, SEC Champions, National Champions)
On one hand, nobody could beat this team in 60 minutes… but on the other, they lost to freaking Kentucky, which is damn near inexcusable. Still, this was an excellent defensive team even with a hobbled* Glenn Dorsey up front. I don’t think there was a team in 2007 that could’ve dealt with a healthy LSU defense, which is the key here; the losses to Kentucky and Arkansas were fueled in part by guys playing at way less than optimal – and even with that, it took 3 OT. The other key is, of course, a 2007 team. Man, last year sucked.
*I’ve never seen a player take as many uncalled cheap shots as Dorsey saw. Seriously.

32. 2001 Oregon (12-1, 8-1, Pac-10 Champions)
Yes, Oregon should’ve been in the title game. Yes, they did wreck Colorado in their consolation game. But Joey Harrington would’ve been lit up like a Christmas tree against the Miami defense; on some level we wonder if Oregon should be thankful they got to say what-if. We’re not sure anyone would want to face that Miami team, although if anyone could’ve not looked like total idiots against them, it’s these guys. (By the way, that’s the textbook definition of “damning with faint praise” right there.)

33. 2007 Georgia (11-2, 6-2)
How does this team compare to the other at-large selections in BCS history? Depends on which part of the season you look at; up to the Tennessee game, that team would be low-80’s on this list. But after that …. for all Chris’s outright dismissals of Georgia’s chances of playing in the title game, they might’ve been the second-best team in 2007 come BCS time. Unfortunately for them, all the games count – and we do remember that egg against South Carolina, as much as we remember the dismantling of Florida, Auburn, and Hawaii.

34. 2003 Oklahoma (12-2, 8-1, Big 12 runner up)
Can an assistant really make all the difference? If you don’t think so, then allow me to describe the Oklahoma Sooners with DC Mike Stoops versus what they’ve been like after he took over at Arizona. In his full four seasons with OU, the Sooners compiled a 3-1 bowl record including 2-0 in the BCS with a national championship in which they basically pitched a shutout. In their three bowl victories they allowed a total of 19 points! (in their last three BCS losses, they’ve given up 146) Oklahoma was big and bad, the second BCS mini-dynasty after FSU, and this really culminated in 2003, when their 12-0 start was so utterly dominant that they were being called the greatest team of all-time. In just two games without their genius DC, the Sooner defense surrendered 56 points to lose both the conference and national title games. Funny how the seemingly smallest thing can bring it all crashing down. Nonetheless, the raw amount of talent on this defense allowed them to keep the Sugar Bowl respectable, even if Jason White was chucking interceptions in preparation for next year’s blowout loss to USC.

35. 2002 Georgia (13-1, 8-1, SEC Champions)
Ever wonder how good Georgia would be with an offense? Look no further than this team. The 4th-ranked defense is familiar but one of the most efficient QB’s (David Greene) in the country, and an offense that actually topped 30 ppg, allowed this particular team to win 13 games. On that note, they are probably one of the most forgotten 1-loss teams from the BCS era.

36. 2004 Texas (11-1, 7-1)
On paper you might think this offense would be more explosive than the 05 version – all the same players, plus Cedric Benson to bring a power presence to the running game. Then you remember, Vince Young still couldn’t pass the ball in 2004. (off topic: my personal favorite VY highlight comes from the 2004 season, when he throws a pass that’s intercepted by a Kansas linebacker, then promptly goes and lays out the LB with a violent tackle as he tries to run it back. A year later when he slams a USC safety to the turf en route to the end zone, you had to see it coming.) Not that it mattered for the most part, as Texas proved against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Michigan that they could outscore you if need be. The defense was average – perhaps slightly above average – for BCS team standards, led by an excellent secondary and LB Derrick Johnson who would set a NCAA record for fumbles forced by literally punching the ball out of running backs’ hands mid-tackle. The knocks on this team were shoddy kick coverage (see Rose Bowl) and the fact that VY still hadn’t learned to change/ignore/laugh hysterically, then change all plays that came into the huddle (see shutout loss to OU).

37. 2005 Ohio State (10-2, 7-1)
Although it was early in the season in their home stadium, this defense and the linebackers in particular get credit for being the only team in 2005 to effectively neutralize Vince Young – holding the Longhorns to 25 points when their next-lowest points total was 40 in a rivalry game Texas didn’t really show up for but won anyway. Sure the fact that VY was a little overconfident in his raw athletic ability helped – the QB threw two picks while literally being dragged to the ground (slowly, and from a standstill) by linebackers (fuck it he’s going deep), but that’s still more than anyone else could say. Heck, half the teams out there didn’t even have linebackers seemingly capable of sacking VY. Unfortunately the Ohio State offense, with all its speed and great WRs (Santonio Holmes, Ted Ginn) didn’t gel until mid-November, and by then they’d already lost games to Texas and Penn State despite solid defensive turnouts in both games. By the end of the season they were playing like the #3 team in the country and probably in the 20-30 range of this list, but hey all the games count and we can’t ignore the offensive performances against Texas, Penn State, and yes even San Diego State.

38. 2001 Nebraska (11-2, 7-1)
Nebraska was basically a strong team who saved their worst four quarters of football for next-to-last, then played against possibly the best team of all-time in their final outing. By this time, Eric Crouch had developed into an outstanding player who wasn’t so much doomed by the Heisman curse as he was by the “your team is playing against a vastly superior opponent, the likes of which is seen once every 10-20 years… good luck, have fun!” curse. A victory over an Oklahoma team who really should have finished 12-1 (but upsets do happen, especially in rivalry games) showed that they were still strong enough to compete, but weren’t as fast as teams like Oregon, Florida, or, obviously, Miami. Admittedly, the title game would’ve been even more of a blowout had Miami not held secret tryouts for their fans to play the second half of the Rose Bowl.

39. 2008 Alabama (12-2, 8-1)
Sabanmania may have officially kicked into high gear in 2008; we’ll get back to you on that one. For a team to go 7-6 one season and start off 12-0 the next despite being led by John Parker Wilson says a lot about this team’s level of execution, as well as the level of talent being piped in through two seasons on Saban recruits. Ultimately they were outmatched by two teams above them on this list, both by respectable margins.

40. 2005 Penn State (11-1, 7-1, Big 10 Champions)
Penn State had a fearsome defense that was led by its LB crew, but really was great across the board including a secondary that had three picks in the 06 NFL draft. Like 2003 LSU, they’re another defense where you wonder how ridiculous their numbers would have been if the team had an offense capable of controlling the game with long drives. Speaking of, the offense basically featured a solid RB (Tony Hunt) and a QB who played like he thought he was a RB (Michael Robinson… whose brutal ramming of a MN safety on a red zone run might still be up on youtube). When Hunt got injured in the Orange Bowl, the team showed their complete lack of depth and one-dimensionality all at the same time, getting involved in an ugly affair.

41. 2000 Washington (11-1, 7-1, Pac 10 Champions)
Washington was a team that simply found ways to win – whether that’s an early season victories over the Miami Hurricanes and Oregon State Beavers, or squeaking past Stanford and Arizona near the end of the season. Marques Tuiasosopo seems like exactly the kind of guy you want running your offense, except that his efficiency rating was actually in the bottom half of starting QBs and he averaged a rather pedestrian 3.4 ypc as a dual-threat. The defense was a shade above average in scoring as well. The Huskies may have had the strongest argument for inclusion in the BCS compared to all of the other 1-loss teams, but their performances from mid-October on convinced few that they were actually one of the two best teams in the country. (or, y’know, EASTCOASTBIAS)

42. 2005 West Virginia (11-1, 7-0, Big East Champions)
This team also doubles as the Big East’s coming out party. It’s tough to overstate what ’04 Pittsburgh did to this conference’s reputation, but it was about three steps below the shitter. Sure, they went undefeated in the Big East, but they lost to the only *real* team they played in the regular season in Virginia Tech. Who the hell are these guys, anyway? This was the proto-Slaton and White team; both started as freshmen – predictably, they struggled early in the season before pouring it on at the end. Those 382 yards the ‘Eers rushed for in the Sugar Bowl were 155 more than Georgia had allowed in any game all season. They averaged more than a yard per carry higher than the 2nd-best rushing attack the ‘Dogs had allowed all year. So yeah, this team was pretty good.

43. 2006 USC (11-2, 7-2, Pac 10 Champions)
I will forever be grateful for this team – thank god it kicked Michigan’s teeth in otherwise we’d never be hearing the end of it. Since that happened before the national title game, we didn’t get subjected to a week of “Michigan should’ve been there!” stories ….okay, ANOTHER week of them. So thank you, John David Booty. Thank you, Chauncey Washington. Thank you, [7 guys on defense whose names I’ve all forgotten]. A nation thanks you. But you get no slack for losing to UCLA, sorry.

44. 2007 Ohio State (11-2, 7-1, Big 10 Champions)
Once again, Ohio State had one of the best statistical defenses in the NCAA, and once again, they were lit up like a Grateful Dead concert by a speedy SEC opponent. The main differences between 2006 and 2007 were: a) Todd Boeckman replaced Troy Smith b) no Ted Ginn c) they lost a regular season game and d) okay, the championship game was good for longer than 15 seconds. The latter may be more due to 07 LSU not being as good as 06 Florida, but hey. To their credit, this team did have a generally solid defense and one of the nation’s top RBs.

45. 2006 Boise State (13-0, 8-0, WAC Champions)
Yes, everyone remembers the Statue of Liberty…. and the proposal. We may not remember they averaged nearly 40 points a game. We remember Ian Johnson ran for over 1,700 yards, but we may forget Jered Zabransky had a 23/6 ratio to go with his 2,500 yards passing. We remember the fantastic Fiesta Bowl, but this team was damn good before they got there, and beat a damn talented Oklahoma team.

46. 2006 Oklahoma (11-3, 8-1, Big 12 Champions)
Entering the season, Oklahoma was supposed to win the conference title and contend for the national – and then they lost QB Rhett Bomar and had to start a converted WR in his place. Around late October the move ended up working, but that was too little too late. Of course, you can’t mention their three losses without some Sooner fan bringing up the complete beauty absolute robbery that happened at Oregon – but hey, it took both horrible officiating AND the Sooners playing like ass in the closing minutes for that shocker to happen. OU then used a five turnover deficit to lose to Texas, before going on a tear to impressively reclaim the Big 12 and a spot in the BCS. Of course we recall what happened there, but losing an overtime game on some mind-boggling trick plays isn’t quite enough to drop them out of the top half of the BCS teams.

47. 2004 Utah (12-0, 8-0, MWC Champions)
Why couldn’t this team have played a team with a pulse? Was that too much to ask? Apparently it was, as Utah’s present for rolling all their opponents by at least 14 was to play Pittsburgh. Oh boy. This was the pre-Florida Urban Meyer team of glory, thrusting him into the national spotlight; in a way, these guys are indirectly responsible for Tim Tebow and directly responsible for the 49ers being complete idiots. As awesome as Alex Smith was in college, they had one hell of a system going there.

48. 2000 Oregon State (11-1, 7-1)
The offense featured Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh, and in the Fiesta Bowl against Notre Dame you saw what such a tandem of receivers is capable of doing to a college defense. However, their own defense seemed to show up about every other week – you either broke 30 against them or didn’t break 10 – and overall their play was just inconsistent. Still consistent enough to finish 11-1 with a sole loss to title contender Washington (and with a victory over 10-2 rival Oregon to boot), but really the performance seems about par for a list of BCS teams. They also had Jonathan Smith, who miraculously retained eligibility despite being 400 years old ...and a zombie. (This trick was later copied by Brandon Coutu.)

49. 2002 Oklahoma (12-2, 7-2, Big 12 Champions)
From 2000-04, Oklahoma averaged 12 wins a season and played for three national titles, winning one – an impressive little streak there. This squad was right in the middle of that five season stretch, and could be said to be average for greatness. OU had two inexplicable losses (A&M, Ok State) under the helm of Nate Hybl (aka the trivia answer between Josh Heupel and Jason White, who we now know played at OU only because they needed someone whose last name was easier to spell), but had enough raw talent around him to pull of impressive wins over Texas, Colorado, and of course their Rose Bowl beatdown of Washington State.

50. 2007 West Virginia (11-2, 5-2, Big East Champions)
Left for dead after Rich Rodriguez bolted for Michigan before the Fiesta Bowl, these guys responded by wrecking Oklahoma (in what’s now become a yearly tradition). This was the most explosive Mountaineer offense (39.6 PPG) of the last few years, although the defense wasn’t anything spectacular. Then again, it didn’t have to be; between Owen Schmidt, Pat White, Steve Slaton, and Noel Devine (the fastest of these guys), who the hell was going to stop them …well, other than Pittsburgh. Way to spit the bit. Random tidbit: they averaged 8.95 ypc against Oklahoma. Seriously.

51. 2007 USC (11-2, 7-2, Pac 10 Champions)
At the end of the day, they had a fantastic offense and a solid defense. Losing to Dennis-Dixon-clad Oregon is perfectly okay, especially on the road; 2007 was so wacky it wouldn’t be a death knell. But …Stanford? Really? Come on, we can only suspend disbelief so much. They did wreck Arizona State pretty handily, so that’s a plus.

52. 2003 Michigan (10-3, 7-1, Big 10 Champions)
Moving Marlin Jackson from CB to FS cost the Wolverines their best cover corner and revitalized the secondary – improving the unit from #69 in 2002 to #15 in 2003. Sometimes asymmetric depth does funny things like that. This move, and the play of Chris Perry and Braylon Edwards, allowed Michigan to beat Ohio State for the only time under Jim Tressel and to win their first Big 10 title since the 1997 co-national champion season. USC made them look average in that Rose Bowl, but USC has had a habit of doing that to opponents for about seven years now. Even then, if Edwards doesn’t drop a would-be long TD pass on the Wolverines’ opening drive, maybe this team had just enough talent to hope for a small miracle.

53. 2003 Miami (11-2, 6-1, Big East Champions)
Contrary to popular belief, the Miami mini-dynasty didn’t really collapse following their loss to Ohio State, and only a midseason stumble against VA Tech followed by a disastrous offensive performance against Tennessee prevented the Canes from joining the BCS’s most convoluted title discussion. These guys were fucking soldiers, with the exception of Brock Berlin. What a loser.

54. 1998 UCLA (10-2, 8-0, Pac 10 Champions)
Dear god, this team could throw the ball. Granted, that’s about all they could do as the defense finished in the bottom 20, allowing 340 points which is almost unheard of for a team who was unbeaten and the leading title contender in December. They were 10-0 and scored 45 points against Miami, problem was that they gave up 49. Then they gave up 38 to a very offensively one-dimensional Wisconsin team. Still, when you force the #1 defense in the country to give up three times their average… well, at least you’re good on that side of the ball.

55. 1998 Florida (10-2, 7-1)
Statistically, this was both the worst offense and the best defense Steve Spurrier had in his final nine seasons with the Gators. The Dragon had yet to arrive on campus, so their options were limited.

56. 2005 Georgia (10-3, 7-2, SEC Champions)
The Georgia Stonehands did a pretty good job throughout the regular season, except for blowing back-to-back games against Florida and Auburn. Shockingly, this was the only season where Mohammed Massaquoi didn’t drop a ton of passes, making him the go-to receiver by default. Even gifted with a virtual home game for the Sugar Bowl, these guys couldn’t stop West Virginia from rolling them in the first half.

57. 2006 Michigan (11-2, 7-1)
We were really happy when USC figured out that Michigan absolutely could not stop the pass (hello, watch the Ohio State game film?) and shredded the Wolverines in the second half of the Rose Bowl. This was a team who relied a little too heavily on the run, was a little slow in adapting to the opposition, and basically squandered a good amount of talent in losing the only two games of the season that really mattered. Growing up as an Ohio State fan during the John Cooper years, I feel their pain. But had they beaten USC, they totally should’ve played Ohio State again for the title. REMATCH!

58. 2000 Florida (10-3, 8-1, SEC Champions)
“Ball State? MTSU? Fuck it, I’m going deep. Those bitches can’t keep up with the Dragon. I don’t even know where the fuck those hick-ass schools are and I’ll still fuck all their cheerleaders during halftime.”
“Oh, Tennessee? Rocky Top this, bitches. You can’t handle the Dragon.”
“Kentucky? Maybe I’ll toss some nice little slant screens against these little shits. Who the fuck am I kidding? They can’t handle Jabar. Fuck it, I’m hitting Gaffney on an 80-yard out. What the fuck are you going to do about that?”
“LSU? Bitches can’t handle this shit. I’ll fucking go deep all day here and hit their cheerleaders at halftime, if you know what I mean. And fuck it, you know what I mean. I’m going deep.”
“Auburn? You think you can tame the Dragon? Fuck no you can’t tame the Dragon. I’ve got a Tiger too; ask your girlfriend about that shit. Twice.”
“Shit, Vanderbilt and South Carolina totally aren’t worth going deep on. Bitches are ugly and shitty. I’ll just throw 10-yard slants all day against these bitches. Fooled you, didn’t I? Yeah, that’s right, I’m throwing the bomb and nothing but the bomb. And I’m making all your coeds wet with excitement. The Dragon’s just that good.”
“Georgia’s a rivalry game; they’ve got a good secondary. Everyone’s been covered short all game. Fuck it, I’m going deep.”

59. 2007 Oklahoma (11-3, 7-2, Big 12 Champions)
Oklahoma wasn’t supposed to have a great season following Adrian Peterson’s departure to the NFL, but to the surprise of many they started out 4-0 outscoring opponents 246-47. Though they’d go on to defeat Texas once and Missouri twice, they couldn’t keep it up all season. Ultimately, their downfall was the inconsistency you’d expect from a team lead by a freshman QB. Bradford really takes a lot of the blame for their wtf loss to Colorado, and he needed to step the offense up when it became obvious that West Virginia’s offense was too fast to be contained in the Fiesta Bowl.

60. 2008 Penn State (11-2, 7-1, Big Ten Champions)
After a shittastic win over Ohio State late in the season, Penn State appeared on the way to the national championship game. (god, what a massacre that would have been) Fortunately for the staff at the Orange Bowl, Iowa emerged to knock them off. Yes, Iowa. Consolation was to go to the Rose Bowl where USC handed the Big Ten its third consecutive embarrassing loss.

61. 2003 Ohio State (11-2, 6-2)
Even without Maurice Clarrett and half of their championship defense, OSU was in position to contend for the 2003 national title going into their game against Michigan. Ah, familiar story. Of course, unlike the mid 90s, this was a team that overachieved for most of the season and when they lost to the Wolverines, you couldn’t be that surprised. The defense then shut down KSU’s option attack (which had baffled Oklahoma) and showed enough dominance on both lines to be a testament to their place among the middle tier of BCS teams.

62. 2007 Kansas (12-1, 7-1)
Unfortunately, even after winning the Orange Bowl, it’s still tough to get a feel for how good this team was. Todd Reesing was incredibly efficient and Talib was legitimately one of the top cover corners in the NCAA, but they basically played against two good teams all season – Missouri handling the Jayhawks without difficulty and Virginia Tech being a team Taylor-made to be the perfect matchup to allow KU to steal a BCS bowl victory (can’t score many points, prone to turnovers, terrible coaching). This feels about right. And yes, Missouri would be above them if they actually made the BCS – way to go, Orange Bowl selection committee!

63. 2006 Louisville (12-1, 6-1, Big East Champions)
Led by a high-powered offense and a better-than-expected defense, Louisville ended up winning the Big East thanks to both of the other conference contenders (West Virginia, Rutgers) losing an additional conference game. Their prize was getting to play an overmatched Wake Forest team in the No-Doz Bowl. This is back when we all thought Brian Brohm was the shit, Michael Bush was injured, and the Cardinals were still throwing up 5+ TDs a game. Good times.

64. 2002 Washington State (10-3, 7-1, Pac 10 Champions)
Much as I want to rip on the Cougs for being the last team to lose to Oklahoma in the BCS, they did have to face the national champs and a USC team who was equally talented as the Buckeyes – oh yeah, and they beat those Trojans. That’s three legitimately good BCS opponents on the schedule. Alright, alright – THEY LOST TO OKLAHOMA WTF?? There, I said it.

65. 2004 Virginia Tech (10-3, 7-1, ACC Champions)
VT did have the misfortune of facing the #3 and #5-ranked teams on this list. Yikes! Against USC, the Hokies nearly pulled off the upset in the season-opener due to USC’s early offensive growing pains… were it not for numerous illegal formation issues and what was probably a phantom offensive PI. Then again, the 10-minute collapse in the middle of the second half also sealed their fate. And against Auburn, don’t let the score fool you it was over at 16-0. Still, when we get beyond that, we see a team who had one of the nation’s best defenses and an experienced, mobile QB in Randall. Slightly below average for BCS-goers, but not terrible.

66. 2008 Ohio State (10-3, 7-1)
When it’s all said and done, Terrelle Pryor may be the man who quiets the beautiful chorus of Don’t Cry Out Looooouuuud! After watching his team get DCOL’ed in Los Angeles, Tressel made the switch and was rewarded by his team’s remaining losses being by less than 32 points – yay! But as it stood at the end of this season, Pryor was basically a runningback playing QB – no, that’s not “a runningback who can pass,” just a runningback.

67. 2003 Florida State (10-3, 7-1, ACC Champions)
This was one of those nice teams that ended up being really easy to classify: they lost to anyone with a pulse. Yes, they beat 10-3 Maryland, but that Maryland team beat …..uh…. Clemson? Yeah, Clemson. Of course, that was more than Florida State could say, since Clemson beat them by 16. On the plus side, they did go 10-1 (7-1) against teams not named Miami, even though that was a Miami team that obviously wasn’t as good as previous versions.

68. 1999 Tennessee (9-3, 6-2)
In some ways, they really weren’t that much below the championship team from the season before. Their most challenging/lucky wins in 98 turned into two heartbreaking losses in 99 – Florida and Arkansas. However, getting thoroughly dominated by a Nebraska team who basically said “hey, we’re going to run between the tackles – stop us if you can” is indicative of some real defensive issues.

69. 1999 Michigan (10-2, 6-2)
Led by-ah the great Tom Brady, the Wolvahrines were sahprisingly average on awfense, but they found ways to beat three 10-win BCS conference teams including a fackin amazing Orange Bowl win over Alabama. This game feachahd two comebacks from 14 points down, a shahr sign of things to come fah Brady's future NFL team. The magic was there, but the skill and supporting cast were-ah nawt on the level Brady would grow accustomed to as a fackin profassionahl. GO PATS!

70. 1999 Wisconsin (10-2, 7-1, Big 10 Champions)
Ron Dayne broke the NCAA rushing record this season and finished #2 on the year behind LaDainian Tomlinson by 16 yards, who faced vastly inferior competition. The stingy defense finished #5 in scoring average and this was basically a lesser version of the 98 Badgers team.

71. 1999 Alabama (10-3, 8-1, SEC Champions)
I cheated and looked up statistics for this team before trying to remember who played for them… and found out, I’ve never heard of any of these guys (Shaun Alexander never existed in LFB world). The Tide had a terrible offense and a slightly above-average defense, and they nearly beat Tom Brady but missed a freaking PAT. That’s all I’ve got.

72. 2001 LSU (10-3, 6-3, SEC Champions)
Remember the days of Rohan Davey? It’s cool, I don’t either. In reality, they may have been the 3rd-best team in the SEC this season behind SEXY REXY’s Gators and a Tennessee team who split games with them. Oh and they lost to Mississippi! No, I don’t care if the Rebs did have Eli Manning, you’re not supposed to do that if you want to crack the top 50. Scoring 47 on Illinois doesn’t count for much, since it’s technically the best defensive performance the Illini have ever had in a BCS bowl.

73. 2004 Michigan (9-3, 7-1, Big 10 Champions)
The only things this team actually accomplished were to beat Iowa, which by now everybody knew was more impressive on paper than in reality, and to give Texas a good game in their bowl. The latter was more related to the matchup of a horrible kick coverage unit going up against Steve Breaston than anything else. Losses to Ohio State and Texas aren’t bad, but we also remember that they were beaten by a very mediocre Notre Dame squad.

74. 2003 Kansas State (11-4, 7-2, Big 12 Champions)
This team encapsulates the argument against conference championship games. KSU lost a nonconference game to Marshall, who wasn’t very good by this point in time. They lost Big 12 games to Texas and Oklahoma State. They padded their schedule with not one but two I-AA opponents. Oklahoma massacred both Texas and OK State, destroyed a Pac 10 opponent and beat Alabama on the road, and were sitting at (12-0, 8-0) to KSU’s (10-3, 6-2) going into November. Even Texas was (9-2, 7-1) – better than KSU on both counts and with a head-to-head victory. But KSU got to clean their entire slate and win a completely undeserving Big 12 title by upsetting Oklahoma on Dec 6. One win negated an entire season of mediocrity. Naturally, they went on to lose the Fiesta Bowl to Ohio State, only making the score close when the Buckeyes stopped caring in the 4th quarter. On the plus side, Kansas State had already paid off the karma this built for them back in 1998 and 1999.

75. 2001 Colorado (10-3, Big 12 Champions)
Yes, we’re putting a national title contender this low on the list. Why? Two reasons: 1) they got shitcanned by Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl (losing by 22 to a team that had to bribe teams to lose by more than 10) and 2) Mack Brown gift-wrapping the Big 12 championship. (Aside for one M. Brown: DON’T PLAY CHRIS FUCKING SIMMS. HE SUCKS.) So yes, Colorado did win the Big 12 title, but just because you win a conference championship doesn’t mean you’re a good team (see: ACC, 2001-present).

76. 2007 Virginia Tech (11-3, 8-1, ACC Champions)
When another conference champion beats your conference champion 48-7, you’ve got to have doubts about your BCS game. Virginia Tech was massacred at the hands of LSU, and that really signified the gap between the passably decent and the actually talented teams. (Seriously, this was a bad year.) This was apparent in the year’s first three BCS bowls, settled by an average of 27 points. VT had an evenly fought game with Kansas, which is why they rank just a little below Kansas here. The Hokies featured one of the best defenses in the NCAA, but their offense was basically Brandon Ore rushing against 9-men fronts behind a mediocre line. When you consider that Reggie Ball Sean Glennon was such a bad QB that Tyrod Taylor’s redshirt was burned halfway through the second game in meaningless crunch time that tells you how truly bad Glennon was. Oh but it gets better – Taylor eventually lost the starting spot back to Glennon. Go figure that the VT offense gave Kansas the points they needed to win the Orange Bowl. As a bonus, this team completed the triumvirate of losses you really want to avoid when they blew a 10-0 lead over Boston College in the final four minutes by playing prevent defense – giving them a blowout loss, a choke loss, and a loss against a completely unproven opponent. Great job, Coach Beamer.

77. 2007 Hawaii (13-1, 8-0, WAC Champions)
Led by a high-powered offense and a complete inability to field an offensive or defensive line large enough to compete on the mainland, Hawaii bombed their way to a 13-0 record and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. After watching Georgia wreck them without blitzing, “bombed” sure seems like the right word for them, right?

78. 1998 Texas A&M (11-3, 8-1, Big 12 Champions)
Texas A&M was known as a comeback team – winning 5 games in the second half, but I think what really happened was that teams got bored playing against them and went home early. A team based on their “Wrecking Crew” defense, the Aggies surrendered at least 20 points against every team they faced with at least 9 wins (five) but hey, they did manage to shut out a sub-.500 Oklahoma team and hold Louisiana Tech to 6. The offense never broke 40 once, not even against pathetic North Texas, Baylor, or Kansas, and actually they broke 30 just twice all season. Basically this is the story of a team getting lucky just enough times in the regular season to qualify for a conference championship game, then having a combination of getting lucky plus having your opponent stop playing at halftime (way to shit all over yourself, Kansas State) so that you could play in a bowl where – get this – your opponent stops playing offense after the first quarter but still wins.

79. 2002 Iowa (11-2, 8-0)
Notice that they were 8-0 in conference play but not Big 10 champions (they were technically co-champs, but Ohio State was given the automatic bid and… oh yeah, Ohio State didn’t lose a nonconference game to a .500 team, so we know who the real B-10 champs were). To their credit, they did squeak past Miami… the other Miami… by 5 points in a game that the Big Ten actually apologized to the Redhawks team for the officiating afterward. One might think they got screwed but in reality they got saved from being massacred by a vastly superior OSU team. Their consolation was a record good enough to earn them a trip to the Orange Bowl where they were massacred by a vastly superior USC team. But hey, when your conference has all of its power consolidated into two teams, and you don’t play against the other, you too can win 11 games!

80. 2002 Florida State (9-5, 7-1, ACC Champions)
In a testament to the collapse of the ACC, this team managed to go 2-4 out of conference, including a loss to 7-6 Louisville back when they were still a C-USA team.

81. 1998 Syracuse (8-4, 7-1, Big East Champions)
They had Donovan McNabb, which was unquestionably the best part of this team. Unfortunately, they couldn’t clone him enough to make it worthwhile, ending up getting destroyed by a Florida team who wasn’t spectacular but sure seemed it after this game. As above, the 1-3 record is a testament to the state of the Big East in 1998, but in fairness two of those losses were to national champs Tennessee and a pretty good Florida team.

82. 2001 Maryland (10-2, 7-1, ACC Champions)
Witness the prototype of the new ACC Champion – bad offense, weak schedule, completely decimated in bowl games by a vastly superior opponent. We didn’t realize what we were getting into at the time.

83. 2005 Notre Dame (9-3, 3-0 Armed Forces Division)
You’re going to hate me for bringing this up, but I can’t be the only one to remember that god-awful abomination that Brady Quinn’s sister was wearing during this game, right? (Hey, since she was sleeping with AJ Hawk, do you think they got any playbook information? You think it would’ve actually mattered?) She really should’ve known better, and not only from a fashion standpoint. As for the game, it was the predictable Notre-Dame-gets-in-because-they’re-Notre-Dame-and-then-gets-killed game. Not a whole lot to see here, although this is probably indirectly responsible for spawning the “Ohio State Best Team EVAR” crap in 2006. Let this be a lesson for you: beating Notre Dame in a BCS game does not guarantee you a title next year. Bonus points: this was the best BCS team from either Indiana or Illinois.

84. 2001 Illinois (10-2, 7-1, Big 10 Champions)
This was the best Illinois team of the BCS era. That really sums it up. Well, that and Kurt Kittner, who went on to a wildly successful NFL career ….oh. Too soon?

85. 2008 Virginia Tech (10-4, 5-3, ACC Champions)
For the sake of posterity, let’s summarize the 2008 ACC. Four teams go 5-3 in conference, six 4-4, one 3-5, and Duke 1-7. In late December, we were told that this was because the entire conference is awesome! Then the rest of the bunch starts off 3-6 in bowl games, and we remember that the eventual conference champions (yeah, these turds) lost their season opener to a Conference USA team who finished 9-5. All the Free Shoes U victories over FCS opponents in the world couldn’t redeem this short bus special, and the fact that the Hokies did in fact manage to beat the 5^th-worst BCS team of all time only goes so far.

86. 2006 Wake Forest (11-3, 7-2, ACC Champions)
This team was the offensive equivalent of nails on a chalkboard. They lost their starting QB and starting RB in the first two games of the season and still won the ACC title before Louisville felt pity on them and played down to their level in the Orange Bowl. Put another way: in 2006, the ACC had a conference champion who was playing without their starting backfield, and to win the conference championship, they had to go through … Reggie Ball. A! C! C!

87. 2007 Illinois (9-4, 6-2)
Rashard Mendenhall + ? = holy god this team shouldn’t have been in the BCS. We hate you, Rose Bowl Selection Committee; Missouri wasn’t good enough for you, huh? (Bonus points: taking a bus to LAX on New Year’s Day and seeing all the depressed Illinois fans. Really, they should’ve known better; just because you beat Ohio State in a trap game doesn’t mean you’re any good. Missouri called off the dogs when they played you.)

88. 2000 Purdue (8-4, 6-2, Big 10 Champions)
When we make fun of the Big 10, it’s for shitty teams like this – teams that somehow avoid playing anyone with talent, lose to better in-conference teams but get lucky when they lose to other teams, then proceed to get mauled by teams making their only Rose Bowl appearance in the last decade. Purdue, this is why we mock you.

89. 2000 Notre Dame (9-3, beat nobody of consequence)
I know, it’s hard to realize, but this was the first team to get completely played off the field by a good-but-not-great Oregon State team with way more team speed. If you close your eyes and imagine really carefully, you can still see Oregon State returning a pick for a TD. Oregon State forgot to cash in their BCS title ticket for beating Notre Dame, I guess – don’t know what happened to them next year.

90. 2008 Cincinnati (11-3, 6-1, Big East Champions)
Guess who our lowest-ranked team to win a BCS bowl was? 2008 Va Tech. Now guess who their opponent was? Bingo.

91. 2006 Notre Dame (10-3, beat nobody of consequence)
This might’ve been the most fun I’ve ever had watching someone just get completely fucked up, as Notre Dame had no way to deal with LSU at all, especially with LSU playing a de facto home game. They sneaked in on name and reputation alone, which got them about as far as you’d expect once the game actually started. Wonder if Brady Quinn still has nightmares about this one. Of course, LSU did go on to win a title, but as we’ve seen above, that wasn’t guaranteed. Apparently you just get the title shot, not the actual title.

92. 2005 Florida State (8-5, 6-3, ACC Champions)
The poster child for the “Conference Championship Games Should Be Killed” argument, Florida State lucked out and beat a superior Virginia Tech team. Their reward? Playing Penn State in the 2005 Special Olympics Orange Bowl. Dear God, that was terrible. Oh, and that VT team was a national title contender and had already beaten Florida State in the regular season, too. Yet another demerit: this game probably inflicted Jeffy Bowden on an unsuspecting nation for another 18 months.

93. 1999 Stanford (8-5, 7-1, Pac-10 Champions)
Let this be a lesson for you, Tom Hansen: it was a good idea to make sure everyone plays each other in football, too bad that was implemented in the Pac 10 just a few years too late to avoid this. This way, you avoid teams like this making the Rose Bowl over a 9-3 Oregon team they happened to avoid playing. You also avoid Stanford getting their skull caved in by Ron Dayne. We could throw out fancy statistics (418 points scored vs 364 allowed is among the worst of any BCS team, and basically means they were lucky to win 8 games), but it can be better phrased by noting that only 2004 Pittsburgh ranks lower, and they nearly got their conference’s BCS membership revoked. Speaking of which…

94. 2004 Pittsburgh (8-4, 4-2, Big East Champions)
This is why they play the games, right? This was a bad, bad year for the Big East; it was right after Miami and Virginia Tech bolted for the ACC but before they had added Louisville and South Florida, so every team had to play a ton of out-of-conference games. Adding to the problem is there wasn’t one team in the conference who was really that much better than everyone. Pittsburgh chose to offset the weak conference schedule by playing Ohio, Nebraska, Furman, Notre Dame, and South Florida (they still sucked back then) – of which, 6-6 Notre Dame was the only one who was both in division I-A and had a non-losing record. The end result? This crapbag of a team sneaks into the BCS and gets wrecked by Utah. Good show. (Also, it was really fun watching the ads for the BCS: #1 v. #2, #3 v. #5, #4 v. #7, and #6 v. #21. Uh….)